IM Regensburg 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Regensburg is one of the younger Ironman races. the first time it was held in 2010. The first finisher Faris Al-Sultan posted a time of 8:13:37 which is still the course record. Last year’s winners were Markus Fachbach in 8:29:16 and Mary-Beth Ellis in course record time of 9:18:55. The race used to be a bit later in the year (it was held in August), now it is at a better point in the year to validate the requirement of an Ironman during the year for a Kona spot. Regensburg is a pretty quick course (course rating of 10:04, similar to Texas and Cozumel – the move to June should make the course probably even quicker), but it is only a 1.000 points race.

Male Participants

On the men’s side, Dirk Bockel is the clear favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:16:19 08:25:45 8
2 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:47:17 08:57:18 118
3 Flo Kriegl AUT 08:47:55 08:57:57 123
4 Andreas Wolpert GER 09:07:15 09:17:39 260
5 Rene Vallant AUT 09:15:33 09:26:06 327
6 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:18:13 09:28:49 346
7 Craig Twigg GBR 09:21:25 09:32:05 376
8 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:39:20 09:50:20 498
9 Jens Kaiser   n/a unrated n/a
10 Tomas Mika   n/a unrated n/a
11 Joan Gómez   n/a unrated n/a
12 Florian Kratz   n/a unrated n/a
13 Michael Raelert   n/a unrated n/a
14 Vincent Rieß   n/a unrated n/a

The only real competition he faces does not come from second.ranked Petr Vabrousek (who will no doubt finish with a strong run and under 9 hours), but from Michael Raelert who will start his first full Ironman. It is next to impossible to predict how he will finish – and all my formulas won’t help as he hasn’t posted an Ironman time yet. One thing is obvious: If he finishes, he will be quicker than his brother Andreas last year who jogged it in and finished with a 10:21 just to finish and validate his Kona slot. But what is possible for him? Andreas Raelert won his first Ironman race (Arizona 2008) with a time of 8:14. Arizona is a little bit slower than Regensburg, so if Michael manages a similar performance, he is just around the course record time of Faris and very close to Dirk Bockel’s potential.

Female Participants

The female field consists of just two names:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Monika Stadlmann AUT 10:33:40 10:45:42 219
2 Heidi Sessner   n/a unrated n/a

Hopefully, some additional athletes are going to start – after all it will be an almost guaranteed pay day!

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