Update May 8th: Sarah Piampiano announced that she has withdrawn from the race, “teetering on the edge [of injury] and wanting to make sure I stay on the healthy side”. Ray Botelho also won’t be starting.
Update May 11th: Amanda Stevens is another DNS. She posted pictures with her right foot in a cast boot. Rachel Jastrebsky also won’t be able to race.
Previous Winners
| Year | Male Winner | Time | Female Winner | Time |
| 2011 | Eneko Llanos (ESP) | 08:08:20 | Catriona Morrison (GBR) | 08:57:51 |
| 2012 | Jordan Rapp (USA) | 08:10:44 | Mary Beth Ellis (USA) | 08:54:58 |
| 2013 | Paul Amey (GBR) | 08:25:06 | Rachel Joyce (GBR) | 08:49:14 |
| 2014 | Bevan Docherty (NZL) | 08:09:37 | Kelly Williamson (USA) | 08:54:42 |
| 2015 | Matt Hanson (USA) | 08:07:03 | Angela Naeth (CAN) | 08:55:19 |
An interesting side note: So far no athlete has been able to win twice in Texas.
Last Year’s TOP 3
Male Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Matt Hanson | USA | 00:55:02 | 04:21:25 | 02:45:47 | 08:07:03 |
| 2 | Joe Skipper | GBR | 00:55:09 | 04:10:07 | 03:04:35 | 08:16:26 |
| 3 | Ronnie Schildknecht | SUI | 00:55:07 | 04:24:27 | 02:55:54 | 08:21:03 |
Female Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Angela Naeth | CAN | 00:59:35 | 04:41:38 | 03:09:13 | 08:55:19 |
| 2 | Leanda Cave | GBR | 00:53:13 | 04:47:43 | 03:12:02 | 08:58:12 |
| 3 | Rachel Joyce | GBR | 00:53:08 | 04:52:35 | 03:14:00 | 09:05:02 |
Course Records
| Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
| Total | overall | 08:07:03 | Matt Hanson | 2015-05-16 |
| Swim | overall | 00:46:20 | John Flanagan | 2011-05-21 |
| Bike | overall | 04:10:07 | Joe Skipper | 2015-05-16 |
| Run | overall | 02:41:38 | Matt Hanson | 2014-05-17 |
| Total | female | 08:49:14 | Rachel Joyce | 2013-05-18 |
| Swim | female | 00:51:49 | Kelly Williamson | 2014-05-17 |
| Bike | female | 04:40:39 | Corinne Abraham | 2015-05-16 |
| Run | female | 02:51:46 | Caitlin Snow | 2012-05-19 |
Course Rating
The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:20.
Race Adjustments for IM Texas
| Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | Bike Adj. | Run Adj. | # of Finishers | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating |
| 2011 | 10:52 | -02:44 | 18:09 | -01:41 | 41 | 10:52 | -02:44 | 18:09 | -01:41 |
| 2012 | 12:54 | -01:22 | 15:12 | 02:45 | 27 | 11:53 | -02:03 | 16:40 | 00:32 |
| 2013 | 07:13 | -01:43 | 15:55 | 02:23 | 30 of 46 | 10:20 | -01:56 | 16:25 | 01:09 |
| 2014 | 16:45 | 00:36 | 16:05 | 03:51 | 44 of 55 | 11:56 | -01:18 | 16:20 | 01:50 |
| 2015 | 08:56 | -01:52 | 18:23 | -03:46 | 33 of 52 | 11:20 | -01:25 | 16:45 | 00:43 |
Course Changes for 2016
The biggest thing on athlete’s minds is likely the shortened bike course. There is a big construction project on the old bike course and getting sign-off on a new course turned out to be very complicated. For a long time there was no approved bike course and in the absence of any official information rumors spread of the whole race getting cancelled. In addition some strong rain caused flooding in The Woodlands area. This ultimately resulted in a shortened bike course (officially 94 miles instead of 112 miles or roughly 150 km instead of 180) that is also quite complicated. Just looking at the course map can make your head spin. Kona is a very simple bike course, but there are still athletes that make a wrong turn and cut parts of the course (for an example check out my story on Shiao-Yu Li’s Kona in 2015). I just hope that the volunteers help to ensure that all athletes follow the same course. Hopefully the impact of the course on the race results will be limited to a change in race dynamics.
The shortened bike course will result in about 40 to 50 minutes quicker finish times for the Pros. T his will allow athletes to go a bit harder than what would be normal for an Ironman. But of course this is hard to calculate before the race, and overpaying carries the risk of blowing up on the run, especially if things get hot and humid on the run. A well-paced bike ride will also allow for a slightly quicker run than a typical IM, and to win the race you’ll probably have to run sub-2:50 (men) and sub-3 hours for the women in addition to a fast bike. It will be critical to get the pacing right – and no one will have any experience racing these exact distances.
If just linearly scaling the times for the shortened bike (as I have done for my predictions), the impact won’t be very large: The section that is “missing” correspond to roughly three minutes between a fast biker such as Andy Starykowicz and a faster runner (also slower biker compared to Andy) such as Matt Hanson (similar on the female side, comparing Sarah Piampiano and Kelly Williamson). Of course three minutes won’t make a huge difference in the final results, but it can mean the difference between Matt and Kelly running themselves on the podium or fighting for the win.
KPR points and Prize Money
IM Texas is a P-4000 race and has automatic Kona qualifier slots for the male and female winners. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.
Male Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 1 | 6 | Nils Frommhold | GER | 07:30:09 | 08:20:39 | 00:49:35 | 03:35:24 | 03:00:10 | 78% +0% -22% (7) | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | Matt Hanson | USA | 07:31:37 | 08:39:22 | 00:55:04 | 03:45:48 | 02:45:45 | 29% +39% -31% (9) | 53 |
| 3 | 3 | Eneko Llanos | ESP | 07:32:26 | 08:23:08 | 00:49:45 | 03:38:15 | 02:59:26 | 90% +0% -10% (24) | 9 |
| 4 | 18 | Clemente Alonso McKernan | ESP | 07:32:47 | 08:30:54 | 00:49:17 | 03:44:35 | 02:53:54 | 56% +14% -31% (13) | (23) |
| 5 | 2 | Jordan Rapp | USA | 07:34:25 | 08:28:09 | 00:53:33 | 03:36:58 | 02:58:54 | 72% +10% -18% (18) | 18 |
| 6 | 14 | Callum Millward | NZL | 07:35:31 | 08:26:07 | 00:50:12 | 03:45:32 | 02:54:47 | 74% +0% -26% (4) | 14 |
| 7 | 10 | Michael Weiss | AUT | 07:37:30 | 08:32:14 | 00:56:15 | 03:36:16 | 02:59:59 | 89% +11% -0% (13) | 28 |
| 8 | 13 | Jeff Symonds | CAN | 07:38:59 | 08:31:58 | 00:52:03 | 03:52:35 | 02:49:21 | 79% +0% -21% (7) | 26 |
| 9 | 16 | Richie Cunningham | AUS | 07:41:31 | 08:47:05 | 00:51:01 | 03:42:31 | 03:02:59 | 50% +0% -50% (3) | (76) |
| 10 | 4 | Terenzo Bozzone | NZL | 07:42:04 | 08:32:50 | 00:49:56 | 03:45:59 | 03:01:09 | 81% +1% -18% (10) | 30 |
| 11 | 7 | Matthew Russell | USA | 07:42:57 | 08:45:54 | 00:58:50 | 03:43:16 | 02:55:51 | 52% +33% -15% (37) | 73 |
| 12 | 8 | Andrew Starykowicz | USA | 07:43:49 | 08:32:48 | 00:50:51 | 03:31:17 | 03:16:42 | 60% +0% -40% (7) | 29 |
| 13 | 5 | Justin Daerr | USA | 07:43:53 | 08:50:15 | 00:54:17 | 03:46:28 | 02:58:07 | 56% +13% -31% (28) | 85 |
| 14 | 19 | Pedro Gomes | POR | 07:44:02 | 08:41:40 | 00:53:09 | 03:48:29 | 02:57:24 | 59% +6% -35% (21) | 58 |
| 15 | 36 | Jeremy Jurkiewicz | FRA | 07:46:06 | 08:44:48 | 00:49:09 | 03:51:25 | 03:00:32 | 62% +0% -38% (11) | 66 |
| 16 | 29 | Marc Duelsen | GER | 07:46:21 | 08:46:17 | 00:54:20 | 03:44:49 | 03:02:12 | 60% +0% -40% (6) | (74) |
| 17 | 42 | Eric Limkemann | USA | 07:46:23 | 08:43:39 | 00:51:17 | 03:43:57 | 03:06:09 | 50% +32% -18% (4) | 63 |
| 18 | 23 | Barrett Brandon | USA | 07:47:06 | 08:45:06 | 00:49:18 | 03:51:09 | 03:01:40 | 60% +0% -40% (5) | 68 |
| 19 | 24 | Alberto Casadei | ITA | 07:48:08 | 08:49:13 | 00:49:15 | 03:53:03 | 03:00:49 | 38% +16% -46% (7) | 81 |
| 20 | 15 | Kirill Kotshegarov | EST | 07:48:52 | 08:49:24 | 00:55:49 | 03:44:05 | 03:03:57 | 61% +19% -20% (11) | 83 |
| 21 | 9 | Chris McDonald | AUS | 07:49:14 | 08:46:26 | 00:54:44 | 03:45:57 | 03:03:34 | 62% +8% -30% (41) | 75 |
| 22 | 49 | Jonathan Shearon | USA | 07:52:10 | 08:55:15 | 00:55:06 | 03:44:46 | 03:07:18 | 57% +12% -31% (13) | 105 |
| 23 | 46 | Michael Ruenz | GER | 07:53:18 | 08:52:33 | 00:56:25 | 03:52:10 | 02:59:42 | 54% +0% -46% (7) | 94 |
| 24 | 28 | Trevor Delsaut | FRA | 07:54:25 | 08:59:41 | 00:55:44 | 03:52:37 | 03:01:04 | 38% +10% -52% (22) | 120 |
| 25 | 21 | Mauro Baertsch | SUI | 07:56:14 | 08:59:09 | 00:55:30 | 03:52:26 | 03:03:17 | 45% +32% -23% (9) | 118 |
| 26 | 53 | Harry Wiltshire | GBR | 07:57:35 | 08:53:24 | 00:49:39 | 03:53:03 | 03:09:53 | 26% +32% -42% (14) | 96 |
| 27 | 45 | Scott Neyedli | GBR | 07:58:01 | 08:52:31 | 00:52:36 | 03:53:51 | 03:06:33 | 55% +5% -40% (18) | (94) |
| 28 | 17 | Balazs Csoke | HUN | 07:58:20 | 09:05:10 | 00:49:23 | 03:50:24 | 03:13:33 | 56% +10% -34% (22) | 150 |
| 29 | 11 | Swen Sundberg | GER | 07:58:43 | 08:58:56 | 00:54:30 | 03:49:06 | 03:10:07 | 55% +1% -44% (17) | 116 |
| 30 | 37 | Stephen Kilshaw | CAN | 07:58:52 | 09:11:40 | 00:56:19 | 03:52:56 | 03:04:38 | 59% +40% -1% (8) | 177 |
| 31 | 12 | Jozsef Major | HUN | 07:58:57 | 08:55:22 | 00:59:21 | 03:45:47 | 03:08:49 | 76% +5% -19% (30) | 106 |
| 32 | 51 | Gudmund Snilstveit | NOR | 07:58:57 | 08:59:31 | 00:58:51 | 03:45:33 | 03:09:33 | 61% +28% -11% (7) | 119 |
| 33 | 39 | Jaroslav Kovacic | SLO | 08:00:31 | 09:03:45 | 00:50:57 | 03:58:04 | 03:06:31 | 22% +78% -0% (3) | 139 |
| 34 | 44 | Matic Modic | SLO | 08:01:01 | 09:04:30 | 00:57:03 | 03:52:02 | 03:06:56 | 47% +39% -13% (6) | 143 |
| 35 | 20 | Mike Schifferle | SUI | 08:01:54 | 09:02:14 | 01:02:01 | 03:49:53 | 03:05:00 | 84% +12% -4% (54) | 130 |
| 36 | 48 | Francisco Serrano | MEX | 08:03:24 | 09:09:54 | 00:52:31 | 03:51:36 | 03:14:17 | 100% +0% -0% (1) | (170) |
| 37 | 25 | Antony Costes | FRA | 08:04:22 | 09:09:41 | 00:50:00 | 03:45:27 | 03:23:56 | 100% +0% -0% (1) | (168) |
| 38 | 31 | Derek Garcia | USA | 08:04:40 | 09:04:29 | 00:55:17 | 03:50:09 | 03:14:14 | 81% +7% -12% (10) | 142 |
| 39 | 35 | Patrick Jaberg | SUI | 08:05:26 | 09:04:52 | 00:55:36 | 03:53:36 | 03:11:13 | 96% +0% -4% (16) | 148 |
| 40 | 22 | AJ Baucco | USA | 08:08:44 | 09:08:09 | 00:54:12 | 03:55:13 | 03:14:18 | 64% +0% -36% (7) | 160 |
| 41 | 26 | Matthew Curbeau | USA | 08:09:43 | 09:25:53 | 00:56:46 | 03:51:41 | 03:16:17 | 33% +43% -24% (6) | 211 |
| 42 | 50 | Denis Sketako | SLO | 08:13:20 | 09:17:45 | 01:00:11 | 03:53:55 | 03:14:13 | 100% +0% -0% (2) | (198) |
| 43 | 34 | Samuel Huerzeler | SUI | 08:16:04 | 09:14:35 | 00:55:37 | 04:02:52 | 03:12:35 | 100% +0% -0% (5) | 188 |
| 45 | 43 | Douglas MacLean | USA | 08:21:16 | 09:25:38 | 00:59:36 | 04:04:27 | 03:12:14 | 83% +5% -12% (13) | 210 |
| 46 | 41 | Colin Laughery | USA | 08:21:22 | 09:24:43 | 01:02:09 | 04:00:08 | 03:14:05 | 100% +0% -0% (2) | (209) |
| 47 | 47 | Patrick Schuster | USA | 08:30:28 | 09:42:52 | 01:04:52 | 03:55:26 | 03:25:11 | 50% +25% -24% (7) | 251 |
| 48 | 27 | Andres Darricau | Arg | 08:32:01 | 09:44:52 | 00:56:16 | 04:09:18 | 03:21:27 | 7% +93% -0% (2) | (255) |
| 49 | 38 | Peter Kotland | CZE | 08:46:54 | 09:55:53 | 01:01:04 | 04:05:18 | 03:35:32 | 54% +26% -21% (21) | 269 |
| 50 | 30 | Jonathan Fecik | USA | 08:55:26 | 10:05:32 | 00:59:07 | 03:55:19 | 03:56:00 | 38% +0% -62% (2) | (281) |
| 33 | Aaron Gray | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 40 | Patrick Lange | GER | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 52 | Josh Terwoord | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Female Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 1 | 62 | Julia Gajer | GER | 08:18:48 | 09:17:12 | 00:54:47 | 04:08:13 | 03:10:48 | 77% +0% -23% (11) | 9 |
| 2 | 61 | Kelly Williamson | USA | 08:19:16 | 09:30:43 | 00:54:41 | 04:19:49 | 02:59:46 | 77% +12% -11% (12) | 27 |
| 4 | 63 | Rebekah Keat | AUS | 08:29:34 | 09:25:16 | 00:55:22 | 04:11:31 | 03:17:42 | 85% +1% -14% (22) | (20) |
| 6 | 69 | Lisa Roberts | USA | 08:32:53 | 09:37:54 | 01:06:32 | 04:13:42 | 03:07:39 | 76% +3% -21% (16) | 41 |
| 7 | 72 | Katy Blakemore | USA | 08:35:53 | 09:50:10 | 00:53:54 | 04:14:49 | 03:22:09 | 67% +13% -20% (8) | 65 |
| 8 | 67 | Bree Wee | USA | 08:36:37 | 09:48:38 | 00:55:45 | 04:13:31 | 03:22:21 | 60% +7% -32% (22) | 62 |
| 9 | 65 | Emma-Kate Lidbury | GBR | 08:41:50 | 09:48:00 | 00:55:20 | 04:09:24 | 03:32:06 | 100% +0% -0% (2) | (61) |
| 10 | 90 | Darbi Roberts | USA | 08:43:04 | 09:58:23 | 00:54:45 | 04:16:54 | 03:26:25 | 37% +0% -63% (5) | 86 |
| 11 | 78 | Kirsty Jahn | CAN | 08:43:24 | 09:57:44 | 01:01:48 | 04:22:26 | 03:14:10 | 100% +0% -0% (1) | (84) |
| 12 | 85 | Mackenzie Madison | USA | 08:45:29 | 09:49:27 | 01:00:42 | 04:15:41 | 03:24:06 | 69% +0% -31% (11) | 63 |
| 13 | 70 | Jen Annett | CAN | 08:52:38 | 10:07:05 | 01:05:55 | 04:16:23 | 03:25:20 | 34% +34% -32% (4) | 103 |
| 14 | 81 | Jessica Meyers | USA | 08:52:43 | 10:04:43 | 01:01:03 | 04:17:49 | 03:28:51 | 100% +0% -0% (5) | 95 |
| 15 | 75 | Saleta Castro | ESP | 08:54:43 | 10:11:01 | 00:57:39 | 04:23:03 | 03:29:01 | 53% +47% -0% (8) | 110 |
| 16 | 77 | Christine Hammond | USA | 08:55:59 | 10:03:39 | 00:56:35 | 04:20:01 | 03:34:23 | 100% +0% -0% (7) | (93) |
| 17 | 87 | Jocelyn Mccauley | USA | 08:59:13 | 10:22:47 | 01:00:35 | 04:20:08 | 03:33:30 | 41% +0% -59% (4) | (142) |
| 18 | 84 | Heather Leiggi | USA | 09:00:40 | 10:20:03 | 01:02:38 | 04:19:41 | 03:33:21 | 46% +13% -41% (6) | 135 |
| 19 | 76 | Christine Fletcher | CAN | 09:06:44 | 10:10:27 | 01:00:55 | 04:21:09 | 03:39:40 | 92% +8% -0% (20) | 109 |
| 20 | 86 | Caroline Martineau | CAN | 09:12:29 | 10:46:58 | 01:05:09 | 04:25:47 | 03:36:33 | 20% +49% -31% (4) | 177 |
| 21 | 80 | Amy Javens | USA | 09:17:34 | 10:23:37 | 01:09:09 | 04:19:41 | 03:43:44 | 100% +0% -0% (5) | 145 |
| 23 | 83 | Angela Kuehnlein | GER | 09:20:47 | 10:30:33 | 01:04:47 | 04:33:39 | 03:37:21 | 61% +0% -39% (5) | 164 |
| 24 | 82 | Corrie Kristick | USA | 09:35:56 | 11:00:48 | 00:53:56 | 04:15:11 | 04:21:48 | 44% +0% -56% (2) | (181) |
| 25 | 74 | Terry Casey | USA | 09:53:56 | 11:12:19 | 01:00:49 | 04:27:57 | 04:20:10 | 100% +0% -0% (1) | (182) |
| 68 | Alicia Kaye | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 71 | Liz Baugher | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 73 | Lauren Brandon | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 88 | Carrie Mccoy | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 89 | Kathy Rakel | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 91 | Jodie Robertson | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
While Nils Frommhold is my statistical pick for the win, the shortened bike course should play into the hands of defending champion Matt Hanson and other strong runners such as Jeff Symonds, Matt Russell or Callum Millward. The Spaniards Eneko Llanos and Clemente Alonso will contend for the podium when healthy, but I can’t really see them winning. The shortened bike will negate a large part of the strengths of Jordan Rapp, Michael Weiss and especially Andy Strarykowicz:
- Nils Frommhold: 26% (3-1)
- Matt Hanson: 17% (5-1)
- Eneko Llanos: 13% (7-1)
- Clemente Alonso McKernan: 12% (7-1)
- Jordan Rapp: 9% (10-1)
- Michael Weiss: 7% (13-1)
- Jeff Symonds: 6% (17-1)
- Matthew Russell: 4% (25-1)
- Callum Millward: 2% (54-1)
Female Race Participants
On the female side the data points to another German winner: Julia Gajer is the pre-race favorite. But Julia and also Sarah Piampiano will need to have a great run to be able to take the win, especially as the shortened bike course will improve the chances of Kelly Williamson. With Amanda Stevens it’s hard to assess how fresh she is going to be (she raced New Zealand in March), and Rebekah Keat hasn’t raced an Ironman in more than two years. Lisa Roberts could be a surprise contender on race day – she’s got excellent bike skills and is also a fast runner.
- Julia Gajer: 44% (1-1)
Sarah Piampiano: 22% (4-1)- Kelly Williamson: 19% (4-1)
Amanda Stevens: 5% (17-1)- Rebekah Keat: 4% (22-1)
- Lisa Roberts: 2% (42-1)
In addition to these there are Iron-Rookie Alicia Kaye and not-really-Iron-Rookie Lauren Brandon (she DNF’d in New Zealand) who can have an impact on how the race develops.
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