Ironman Barcelona 2014 (Oct 5th) – Predictions

In late 2013, WTC bought the race organizer of Challenge Barcelona, so the race became an Ironman race. From what I know, most of the details of the race (most notably the course) will be the same as in the past. The data for the previous years (winners, course ratings etc.) is from when the race was still a Challenge race, but it should be a good indication of what to expect.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:15:37 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:08:01
2010 Jimmy Johnsen (DEN) 08:19:43 Lucie Reed (CZE) 09:13:47
2011 Clemente Alonso-McKernan (ESP) 08:15:25 Gabriele Vergano (ITA) 09:12:55
2012 Bas Diederen (NED) 08:20:07 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 08:58:43
2013 Sergio Marques (POR) 08:05:21 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:51:01

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sergio Marques POR 00:56:59 04:25:39 02:40:44 08:05:21
2 Tom Lowe GBR 00:59:22 04:23:11 02:43:15 08:07:50
3 Konstantin Bachor GER 00:52:25 04:14:16 03:02:54 08:11:23

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eva Wutti AUT 01:02:39 04:46:37 02:59:45 08:51:01
2 Lucie Reed CZE 00:56:07 04:51:25 03:08:00 08:57:34
3 Tiina Boman FIN 01:06:31 05:02:31 03:12:13 09:23:16

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:05:21 Sergio Marques 2013-10-06
Swim overall 00:47:50 Carlos Lopez Diaz 2012-09-30
Bike overall 04:14:16 Konstantin Bachor 2013-10-06
Run overall 02:40:44 Sergio Marques 2013-10-06
Total female 08:51:01 Eva Wutti 2013-10-06
Swim female 00:52:48 Lucie Reed 2010-10-03
Bike female 04:46:33 Mirjam Weerd 2012-09-30
Run female 02:59:45 Eva Wutti 2013-10-06

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Barcelona is 25:34.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Barcelona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 23:53 -00:58 19:53 02:38 32 23:53 -00:58 19:53 02:38
2010 21:02 -00:59 18:59 01:04 26 22:28 -00:59 19:26 01:51
2011 13:38 -00:36 15:26 -02:24 24 19:31 -00:51 18:06 00:26
2012 31:32 -00:55 12:51 06:11 27 22:31 -00:52 16:47 01:52
2013 37:44 -04:41 14:07 11:13 39 25:34 -01:38 16:15 03:44

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:09:49 08:34:09 00:47:33 04:44:36 02:51:56 21
2 3 Bas Diederen NED 08:20:35 08:45:27 00:48:19 04:47:14 02:58:52 49
3 66 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:22:04 08:47:01 00:51:22 04:46:59 02:53:49 53
4 5 Konstantin Bachor GER 08:22:34 08:47:32 00:49:42 04:30:16 03:11:12 54
5 4 Horst Reichel GER 08:25:25 08:50:32 00:48:29 04:45:26 03:07:56 63
6 12 Herve Faure FRA 08:27:07 08:52:19 00:51:26 04:51:56 03:02:46 (69)
7 15 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:28:46 08:54:03 00:50:13 04:52:26 03:02:47 75
8 6 Miquel Blanchart ESP 08:29:18 08:54:37 00:49:26 04:53:24 02:53:43 78
9 9 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:29:40 08:55:00 00:52:16 04:59:20 02:55:12 80
10 17 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:30:30 08:55:52 00:47:51 04:55:33 02:57:45 84
11 32 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:31:18 08:56:42 00:48:15 04:37:31 02:59:18 (88)
12 7 Michael Goehner GER 08:31:57 08:57:23 00:54:12 04:48:01 03:05:30 93
13 13 Simon Billeau FRA 08:32:40 08:58:09 00:52:25 04:44:21 03:17:58 (96)
14 10 Joe Skipper GBR 08:33:26 08:58:57 00:53:00 04:45:43 02:59:02 100
15 56 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:34:55 09:00:30 00:55:11 04:44:35 03:06:07 103
16 1 Sergio Marques POR 08:34:56 09:00:31 00:54:54 05:00:49 02:58:44 105
17 64 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:35:05 09:00:41 00:48:56 04:50:39 03:04:06 107
18 59 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:35:14 09:00:50 00:55:11 04:52:36 03:03:34 108
19 63 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:36:14 09:01:53 00:53:59 04:46:50 03:11:27 111
20 27 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 08:37:25 09:03:08 00:55:27 04:59:13 02:59:25 116
21 53 Sylvain Rota FRA 08:37:48 09:03:32 00:51:39 04:43:05 03:12:45 117
22 26 Markus Thomschke GER 08:38:33 09:04:19 00:53:28 04:44:51 03:09:13 119
23 65 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:40:33 09:06:25 00:48:37 04:55:52 03:11:33 132
24 11 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:41:03 09:06:57 00:56:08 04:39:42 03:14:20 135
25 61 Graeme Stewart GBR 08:42:33 09:08:31 00:53:39 04:52:43 03:04:59 143
26 58 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:43:53 09:09:55 01:00:35 04:52:02 03:06:39 147
27 8 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:46:13 09:12:22 00:46:58 04:47:27 03:06:31 (158)
28 40 Gergö Molnar HUN 08:48:37 09:14:53 00:48:37 04:55:16 03:05:05 (166)
29 54 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 08:49:12 09:15:30 00:56:55 04:45:12 03:20:03 (167)
30 20 Andres Castillo COL 08:49:39 09:15:58 00:47:38 04:57:46 03:21:35 172
31 14 Ivan Alvarez Gomez ESP 08:53:35 09:20:06 00:56:35 05:04:39 03:01:38 190
32 69 Andreas Borch DEN 08:53:57 09:20:29 00:48:59 04:53:47 03:22:23 (192)
33 35 Vincent Riess AUT 08:55:14 09:21:50 00:54:17 06:00:32 03:00:10 195
34 44 Jens Kaiser GER 08:55:37 09:22:14 00:58:00 04:51:13 03:14:20 197
35 47 Kent Horner ZAF 08:56:09 09:22:48 00:49:18 04:57:03 03:24:09 (199)
36 16 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:58:38 09:25:24 00:47:36 04:51:34 03:38:38 206
37 49 Herve Banti MCO 08:59:11 09:25:59 00:52:09 05:06:20 03:19:55 (207)
38 50 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:59:40 09:26:29 00:49:03 04:50:15 03:17:52 (209)
39 60 Marcel Bischof GER 09:03:20 09:30:20 00:57:34 04:58:14 03:20:40 (223)
40 18 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:03:21 09:30:21 01:03:40 05:01:31 03:00:01 (223)
41 30 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:07:14 09:34:26 00:55:57 04:51:59 03:13:18 (236)
42 38 Christian Nilsson NOR 09:09:17 09:36:35 01:00:13 04:47:23 03:17:11 (245)
43 25 Enric Gussinyer ESP 09:11:09 09:38:32 00:52:21 04:55:21 03:31:08 253
44 33 Oliver Simon GBR 09:12:02 09:39:28 00:49:08 04:58:36 03:35:56 259
45 55 Richard Whitfield GBR 09:12:32 09:39:59 00:56:16 04:53:47 03:15:16 (261)
46 51 Matic Modic SLO 09:13:05 09:40:34 00:56:09 05:01:21 03:14:26 (262)
47 19 Antonio Jesus Aguilar Conejo ESP 09:17:41 09:45:24 01:01:22 05:08:56 03:01:18 (278)
48 28 Anders Wagner DEN 09:19:45 09:47:34 01:03:28 05:06:03 03:09:02 (285)
49 62 Jose Ortega Serran ESP 09:20:35 09:48:26 00:56:42 05:02:31 03:20:11 (289)
50 24 Mauro Baertsch SUI 09:21:13 09:49:06 00:52:37 05:34:30 02:52:06 (292)
51 23 Steve Clark GBR 09:22:29 09:50:26 00:58:07 05:03:39 03:21:18 298
52 21 Luca De Paolis ITA 09:31:00 09:59:22 00:59:58 05:00:55 03:37:08 332
53 42 Martin Kleinl AUT 09:32:10 10:00:36 01:01:13 04:52:47 03:32:17 (341)
54 31 Petr Vales CZE 09:45:39 10:14:45 01:03:22 05:16:39 03:23:43 (376)
55 45 Alejandro Jimenez valverde ESP 09:46:38 10:15:47 00:57:43 05:07:09 03:33:10 (376)
56 39 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:48:48 10:18:04 00:51:30 05:15:45 03:56:12 379
57 57 Fernando Cuenllas ESP 09:51:43 10:21:07 00:55:14 05:10:04 03:48:29 (388)
58 29 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:02:51 10:32:48 01:17:55 04:52:31 03:49:37 (417)
59 46 Nicolas Houyoux BEL 10:33:58 11:05:28 00:58:01 05:31:29 03:56:43 (444)
60 67 Florian Kratz GER 10:42:17 11:14:12 01:04:24 05:54:34 03:52:39 (445)
61 43 Maksim Kalinin RUS 10:42:57 11:14:54 01:11:14 05:35:42 03:47:25 (445)
62 68 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:33:05 12:07:31 01:11:27 05:55:14 04:38:04 450
22 Roman Deisenhofer GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Christoph Schlagbauer AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 Jose Luis Rakos ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
37 Nicolas Pizzol FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
41 Mikolaj Luft POL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
48 Eduardo Crooke Gonzalez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
52 Ouilleres Gwenael FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 97 Erika Csomor HUN 09:08:26 09:35:41 00:58:19 05:14:20 03:13:42 21
2 72 Anja Beranek GER 09:10:31 09:37:52 00:52:51 05:08:06 03:22:46 (25)
3 99 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:13:55 09:41:26 00:50:53 05:09:12 03:21:40 (32)
4 70 Eva Wutti AUT 09:14:25 09:41:58 00:56:40 05:03:26 03:12:47 (33)
5 93 Mareen Hufe GER 09:16:59 09:44:40 01:00:30 05:08:04 03:26:28 39
6 73 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:22:20 09:50:17 00:54:31 05:12:42 03:25:03 50
7 71 Lucie Reed CZE 09:22:51 09:50:49 00:51:08 05:20:53 03:29:16 52
8 85 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:33:52 10:02:23 00:56:50 05:08:59 03:36:00 77
9 77 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 09:34:46 10:03:20 01:00:24 05:18:33 03:16:46 (79)
10 102 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:36:23 10:05:01 01:08:25 05:19:52 03:16:32 82
11 74 Beate Goertz GER 09:39:48 10:08:37 01:04:49 05:12:56 03:27:52 87
12 82 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:43:37 10:12:37 00:56:56 05:29:53 03:15:02 (94)
13 75 Evi Neuscheler GER 09:45:53 10:15:00 01:03:06 05:15:52 03:27:30 (98)
14 88 Jacqui Gordon USA 09:49:40 10:18:58 01:00:31 05:27:28 03:39:03 99
15 90 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:52:24 10:21:50 01:04:34 05:32:59 03:23:51 105
16 101 Tine Holst DEN 09:53:29 10:22:58 01:08:01 05:17:49 03:37:36 107
17 80 Joanna Carritt GBR 09:53:40 10:23:10 01:02:36 05:30:35 03:36:00 108
18 98 Kristin Lie NOR 09:53:43 10:23:13 01:12:49 05:21:17 03:31:07 109
19 89 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:55:27 10:25:02 01:14:22 05:26:24 03:21:45 116
20 76 Nina Pekerman ISR 09:55:55 10:25:32 00:59:00 05:32:15 03:37:16 (118)
21 96 Nicole Woysch GER 09:58:32 10:28:17 00:58:35 05:30:28 03:47:30 124
22 78 Emma Graaf SWE 10:04:05 10:34:06 00:59:07 05:31:26 03:43:21 129
23 91 Lena Holmgren SWE 10:10:30 10:40:50 01:04:04 05:35:51 03:28:32 (137)
24 87 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:14:51 10:45:24 01:03:41 05:38:14 03:33:21 140
25 100 Eleanor Haresign GBR 10:17:28 10:48:09 00:59:53 05:31:43 03:37:56 (142)
26 84 Kathrin Walther GER 10:17:56 10:48:38 01:00:04 05:35:30 03:48:29 142
27 81 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:19:44 10:50:32 01:02:05 05:39:42 03:43:12 143
28 79 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:20:31 10:51:21 01:01:57 05:15:26 04:01:04 (145)
29 92 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:25:45 10:56:51 01:02:37 05:30:54 03:51:24 (148)
30 95 Line Foss NOR 10:45:12 11:17:16 01:27:11 05:31:34 03:45:27 (154)
31 86 Anna Rovira garrido ESP 10:45:42 11:17:47 01:17:35 05:29:09 03:50:24 (155)
83 Susie Hignett GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
94 Darbi Roberts USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Clemente appears to be the clear favorite, but there is a big group of athletes that will look for a great autumn performance:

  • Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 39% (2-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 30% (2-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 17% (5-1)
  • Markus Thomschke: 3% (30-1)
  • Michael Goehner: 3% (36-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 2% (55-1)
  • Konstantin Bachor: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

The women’s field is a great mixture of young & fast athletes (Eva and Camilla who had some problems and DNF’d in Frankfurt) and solid established athletes such as Erika or Lucie:

  • Eva Wutti: 37% (2-1)
  • Camilla Pedersen: 31% (2-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 19% (4-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 5% (19-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 3% (36-1)
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