Ironman Cozumel 2013 (Dec 1st) – Predictions

Update (Nov 29th): A few days before the race, there are a few athletes that are still on the list but won’t race. I’ve crossed out those that I’m aware of: Thomas Gerlach (said on his blog that he’ll visit family over Thanksgiving), Eimear Mullan (replied to me on Twitter: “Please shoot me if I race Cozumel!”) and Matthias Hecht (also on Twitter: “I will be back at IM Melbourne. Need a bit more time.”). I’m sure there will be a few more changes, please let me know if you have any newer information.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Ivan Rana	ESP	00:50:27	04:37:16	02:44:05	08:15:07
2	Bas Diederen	NED	00:50:17	04:37:39	02:51:57	08:22:55
3	Bert Jammaer	BEL	00:52:08	04:36:04	02:53:18	08:24:51

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:54:36	05:05:26	03:11:17	09:15:38
2	Sophie De Groote	BEL	01:04:59	04:57:01	03:09:47	09:15:45
3	Sonja Tajsich	GER	01:13:55	05:00:15	03:02:40	09:21:30

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:15:07	Ivan Rana	2012-11-25
Swim	overall	00:44:39	Uzziel Valderrabano	2009-11-29
Swim	overall	00:44:18	Andres Castillo	2009-11-29
Bike	overall	04:19:17	Michael Lovato	2011-11-27
Run	overall	02:44:05	Ivan Rana	2012-11-25
Total	female	09:07:08	Yvonne Van Vlerken	2010-11-28
Swim	female	00:46:39	Bree Wee	2009-11-29
Bike	female	04:45:20	Simone Braendli	2011-11-27
Run	female	03:02:39	Beth Gerdes	2012-11-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 07:45.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2009	07:45	06:32	-01:57	-01:39	26	07:45	06:32	-01:57	-01:39
2010	08:07	00:59	12:55	-03:32	30	07:56	03:45	05:29	-02:36
2011	09:29	01:52	12:33	02:39	40	08:27	03:07	07:50	-00:51
2012	05:39	-04:26	06:58	00:35	55	07:45	01:14	07:37	-00:29

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	23	Nils Frommhold	GER	08:04:09	08:11:12	00:46:38	04:37:00	02:50:32	(1)
2	1	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:13:22	08:20:33	00:47:42	04:36:51	02:52:25	2
3	75	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	08:16:10	08:23:23	00:48:41	04:31:55	02:59:17	6
4	3	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	08:20:52	08:28:10	00:49:18	04:41:23	02:57:38	14
5	12	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:22:53	08:30:12	00:54:54	04:30:14	02:59:16	18
6	41	Mathias Hecht	SUI	08:33:00	08:40:28	00:47:40	04:42:34	03:06:30	42
7	31	Anton Blokhin	UKR	08:36:00	08:43:31	00:48:26	04:49:05	03:03:03	55
8	19	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	08:37:23	08:44:55	00:48:28	04:58:18	02:57:29	63
9	4	Justin Daerr	USA	08:39:15	08:46:49	00:53:55	04:46:52	03:03:08	68
10	17	Marek Jaskolka	POL	08:39:29	08:47:03	00:47:24	04:54:21	03:02:22	70
11	21	Todd Skipworth	AUS	08:44:56	08:52:35	00:45:53	04:40:02	03:25:27	88
12	13	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	08:45:29	08:53:08	00:54:42	04:51:32	03:01:54	90
13	33	Ezequiel Morales	ARG	08:47:32	08:55:13	00:52:37	04:53:34	02:55:37	98
14	2	Bruno Clerbout	BEL	08:48:52	08:56:34	00:51:02	04:58:54	03:01:46	108
15	39	Thomas Gerlach	USA	08:49:50	08:57:33	00:54:54	04:44:50	03:14:40	112
16	22	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:49:56	08:57:39	00:53:40	04:46:22	03:15:04	114
17	14	AJ Baucco	USA	08:51:04	08:58:48	00:52:37	04:50:48	03:12:28	123
18	32	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	08:52:09	08:59:54	00:48:46	05:06:51	03:01:38	126
19	38	Christian Brader	GER	08:52:29	09:00:14	00:56:26	04:52:48	03:10:29	128
20	76	Balazs Csoke	HUN	08:53:28	09:01:14	00:48:08	04:51:42	03:18:36	133
21	11	Andres Castillo	COL	08:55:36	09:03:24	00:47:41	04:52:38	03:20:44	147
22	74	Dan Mcintosh	USA	08:58:38	09:06:29	00:52:02	04:52:51	03:13:16	154
23	5	Patrick Evoe	USA	09:00:12	09:08:04	00:55:34	04:46:27	03:09:06	157
24	6	Leon Griffin	AUS	09:01:02	09:08:55	00:53:18	04:53:17	03:32:17	161
25	25	Carlos Lopez diaz	ESP	09:01:16	09:09:09	00:47:01	04:50:31	03:27:40	162
26	7	Sebastian Pedraza	ITA	09:02:54	09:10:48	00:52:53	04:49:18	03:21:59	166
27	35	Allan Villanueva	MEX	09:09:53	09:17:53	00:53:27	04:57:02	03:22:03	189
28	16	Olivier Cardoen	BEL	09:10:21	09:18:22	00:54:56	04:52:21	03:24:36	189
29	43	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	09:10:29	09:18:30	00:52:49	05:23:04	03:11:53	190
30	34	Adam O’Meara	CAN	09:14:49	09:22:54	00:54:31	05:08:36	03:13:52	205
31	18	Craig Twigg	GBR	09:27:07	09:35:22	00:52:13	04:55:50	03:41:54	243
32	27	Jose Valero	ESP	09:30:12	09:38:30	01:00:48	05:07:00	03:27:13	257
33	29	Jozef Vrabel	SVK	09:33:49	09:42:10	00:56:39	05:08:37	03:31:54	271
34	9	Logan Franks	USA	09:38:07	09:46:32	01:02:10	05:08:08	03:26:18	287
35	28	Ivan Tejero Vazquez	ESP	09:42:56	09:51:25	00:49:35	05:17:02	03:41:42	296
36	20	Simon Malo	CAN	09:43:39	09:52:09	00:56:48	05:03:57	03:41:38	302
37	24	Daniel Soper	USA	09:44:27	09:52:58	01:02:12	05:02:42	03:25:14	304
38	42	Aubrey Aldy	USA	09:47:30	09:56:03	01:04:36	05:28:09	03:12:15	316
39	15	Peter Kotland	USA	09:51:33	10:00:10	00:57:38	05:17:36	03:36:40	326
40	36	Sergio Quezada	MEX	09:58:18	10:07:01	00:51:43	05:18:41	03:49:12	341
41	37	Reinaldo Oliveira	BRA	10:13:30	10:22:26	01:00:00	05:21:01	03:52:09	381
42	8	Kevin Danahy	USA	10:47:55	10:57:21	00:59:57	05:59:09	03:44:30	401
	30	James Haycraft	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	10	Gabriel Raff	ARG	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	26	Eduardo Crooke Gonzalez	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	40	Peru Alfaro	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	44	Rachel Joyce	GBR	09:05:22	09:13:18	00:51:02	05:06:09	03:12:58	3
2	72	Celine Schaerer	SUI	09:09:59	09:17:59	00:47:39	05:09:44	03:19:47	7
3	45	Jessie Donavan	USA	09:25:03	09:33:17	01:07:21	05:07:15	03:15:21	25
4	70	Tine Deckers	BEL	09:25:12	09:33:26	00:57:39	05:08:39	03:21:06	26
5	48	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:28:51	09:37:08	00:49:05	05:16:55	03:27:32	31
6	73	Ashley Clifford	USA	09:29:09	09:37:26	00:53:53	05:29:26	03:12:25	33
7	47	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	09:32:15	09:40:35	00:59:59	05:15:36	03:21:12	44
8	69	Eimear Mullan	IRL	09:39:09	09:47:35	01:00:47	05:25:58	03:13:56	55
9	53	Edith Niederfriniger	ITA	09:39:22	09:47:48	00:54:37	05:26:35	03:21:09	56
10	65	Sara Gross	CAN	09:40:10	09:48:37	00:55:39	05:33:18	03:18:27	56
11	50	Bree Wee	USA	09:40:35	09:49:02	00:53:56	05:17:43	03:30:52	57
12	66	Keiko Tanaka	JAP	09:40:45	09:49:12	00:54:17	05:27:11	03:22:37	58
13	49	Jackie Arendt	USA	09:43:31	09:52:01	00:55:17	05:28:24	03:20:56	62
14	67	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	09:45:22	09:53:53	00:54:29	05:24:24	03:24:46	65
15	59	Malaika Homo	USA	09:45:55	09:54:27	00:53:07	05:22:31	03:35:28	69
16	51	Svetlana Blazevic	SCG	10:00:44	10:09:29	00:52:20	05:31:22	03:43:12	95
17	52	Anne Basso	FRA	10:01:49	10:10:35	00:58:05	05:30:34	03:41:43	98
18	57	Monique Grossrieder	SUI	10:03:46	10:12:33	01:04:44	05:34:16	03:27:28	104
19	64	Saleta Castro	ESP	10:03:49	10:12:37	00:55:44	05:29:49	03:41:15	105
20	54	Steffi Steinberg	GER	10:16:21	10:25:19	01:08:26	05:36:28	03:35:02	125
21	58	Tami Ritchie	USA	10:35:10	10:44:25	00:52:02	06:06:59	03:44:40	134
22	61	Arrate Gonzalez	ESP	10:44:20	10:53:43	01:08:18	05:56:04	03:46:16	137
23	55	Jennifer Lentzke	CAN	11:04:06	11:13:46	01:12:39	05:45:22	03:46:56	142
24	60	Kristina Wiegand	GER	11:31:54	11:41:58	01:07:24	06:21:38	04:16:31	144
	62	Amy Javens	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	71	Astrid Ganzow	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	68	Lotty Harari	PAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	56	Julie Van Veelen	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	63	Jocelyn Cornman	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The men’s field is a nice mix of „older established” athletes and „younger up-and-coming“ athletes, either coming off their Kona build (Eneko, Tyler) or gearing up again after a forced break (Marino, Nils and Mathias who were injured, Michael Weiss who served a doping ban). Nils Frommhold is the best rated athlete but has just one result (last year’s win at IM Arizona), therefore Eneko and Marino have to be considered the clear favorites:

• Eneko Llanos: 31% (2-1)
• Marino Vanhoenacker: 30% (2-1)
• Nils Frommhold: 17% (5-1)
• Tyler Butterfield: 9% (10-1)
• Michael Weiss: 8% (12-1)
• Mathias Hecht: 2% (45-1)

Female Race Participants

On the female side, Rachel Joyce has decided to race one more IM after Kona and even if she can’t be at the top of her game is the clear favorite. Behind her are a number of other athletes who’d love to snatch the win from her. The race dynamics could be very interesting, the two super-swimmers Amanda Stevens (coming off a DNF in Arizona) and Celine Schaerer (just one IM result, a 2nd place in Switzerland, but with a focused build for Cozumel) could break up the field very early.

• Rachel Joyce: 59% (1-1)
• Tine Deckers: 8% (11-1)
• Amanda Stevens: 7% (13-1)
• Ashley Clifford: 7% (14-1)
• Celine Schaerer: 6% (16-1)
• Jessie Donavan: 5% (18-1)
• Asa Lundstroem: 3% (29-1)
• Sara Gross: 2% (43-1)