Ironman Western Australia 2013 (Dec 8th) – Predictions

Update (Nov 26th): Lucie Zelenkova Reed announced on Twitter that she decided to pull out of the race. 

Update (Dec 6th): Martin Jensen is also not starting (more details on his blog).

Update (Dec 7th): Ironman has posted a start list after registration, and I have updated my tables accordingly. Good luck to everyone racing!

With Western Australia, the last Ironman race for 2013 is coming up. After this race, we’ll have a pretty long break in Kona qualifying races until Ironman New Zealand in March.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

(An earlier version of this post listed the 2011 results with winners Timo Bracht and Michelle Bremer.)

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 00:51:51 04:38:38 02:54:42 08:29:06
2 Horst Reichel GER 00:48:50 04:39:52 03:01:50 08:34:49
3 Matty White AUS 00:51:49 04:38:29 03:03:57 08:38:05

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Britta Martin NZL 01:02:13 05:00:11 03:06:10 09:13:00
2 Rebekah Keat AUS 00:53:58 05:03:44 03:11:57 09:14:39
3 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 01:02:44 05:03:28 03:09:26 09:19:48

Course Records

All the course records are pretty old – this may be a result of some course changes, but it also shows the decline in status of the WA race.

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:55 Jason Shortis 2006-12-03
Swim overall 00:44:42 Pete Jacobs 2007-12-01
Bike overall 04:18:07 Mitchell Anderson 2006-12-03
Run overall 02:43:48 Robert Thomas 2007-12-01
Total female 08:59:24 Gina Ferguson 2008-12-07
Swim female 00:48:25 Tereza Macel 2007-12-01
Bike female 04:50:49 Lisbeth Kristensen 2006-12-03
Run female 03:05:04 Charlotte Paul 2007-12-01

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 12:27.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 02:47 -03:17 01:43 -02:48 20 02:47 -03:17 01:43 -02:48
2006 15:44 00:29 14:13 03:15 25 09:16 -01:24 07:58 00:13
2007 24:38 00:39 13:44 05:23 37 14:23 -00:43 09:53 01:56
2008 17:32 -00:12 15:00 01:35 29 15:10 -00:35 11:10 01:51
2009 15:52 01:19 14:00 -01:28 19 15:19 -00:12 11:44 01:11
2010 06:47 00:07 09:52 05:01 21 13:53 -00:09 11:25 01:49
2011 03:22 -00:22 08:07 01:02 25 12:23 -00:11 10:57 01:43
2012 12:54 -01:32 08:24 04:47 23 12:27 -00:21 10:38 02:06

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 40k$.

Male Race Participants

ARaelertBikeHorizUpperTorso Dellow3 4After the demise of the P-1000 races, WA continues to offer 2000 KPR points for the winner but increased the prize purse from 25k to 40k. The race is a good opportunity to get some early qualifying points, probably better than in the crowded North American races.

With Andreas Raelert and David Dellow there are two world class athletes on the start list that had disappointing Kona 2013 results (DNF for Andreas, DNS for David):

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Andreas Raelert GER 08:04:35 08:16:01 00:48:17 04:39:04 02:47:59 1
2 7 David Dellow AUS 08:14:52 08:26:33 00:47:04 04:40:25 02:57:38 11
3 20 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:22:32 08:34:24 00:47:12 04:49:51 02:55:41 25
4 6 Martin Jensen DEN 08:24:45 08:36:40 00:48:24 04:38:09 02:56:00 33
5 10 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:30:01 08:42:03 00:50:22 04:48:18 02:59:07 44
6 2 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 08:30:41 08:42:44 00:50:20 04:50:25 02:57:45 49
7 24 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:35:40 08:47:50 00:51:49 04:45:45 03:07:01 71
8 3 Luke Bell AUS 08:36:02 08:48:13 00:47:50 04:41:18 03:16:35 74
9 15 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:40:44 08:53:01 00:53:29 04:53:12 03:05:06 89
10 8 Jason Shortis AUS 08:43:20 08:55:41 00:53:59 04:51:11 03:02:10 99
11 4 Matty White AUS 08:43:59 08:56:21 00:51:03 04:48:39 03:13:04 105
12 25 Markus Thomschke GER 08:44:35 08:56:58 00:53:53 04:45:11 03:12:48 109
13 18 Todd Israel AUS 08:49:54 09:02:24 00:49:57 04:55:04 03:14:19 139
14 9 Joshua Rix AUS 08:53:02 09:05:37 00:49:41 04:44:53 03:27:52 146
15 5 Leon Griffin AUS 08:56:11 09:08:50 00:53:18 04:53:18 03:32:53 158
16 12 Johan Borg AUS 08:58:34 09:11:17 00:54:39 04:55:15 03:17:50 166
17 14 Guy Crawford AUS 09:01:44 09:14:31 00:48:57 04:46:25 03:38:40 174
18 16 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:07:53 09:20:49 00:58:32 05:28:49 03:20:17 192
19 17 Kodo Hiramatsu JPN 09:31:33 09:45:02 unrated unrated unrated 276
19 Darren Jenkins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
13 Matt Burton AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
26 Benjamin Williams USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
11 Matt Bailey AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
23 Peter Robertson AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
22 Alex Reithmeier AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
21 Timothy Molesworth AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

While there are clear favorites in the men’s race, it’s hard to pick a front-runner in the women’s race: There are at least six athletes with very similar ratings and different strengths, and with Bree Wee and Kate Bevilaqua two more Ironman winners.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 36 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:22:40 09:35:57 00:58:25 05:22:30 03:09:31 27
2 44 Mareen Hufe GER 09:24:19 09:37:38 01:00:44 05:07:42 03:25:42 32
3 46 Lucie Reed CZE 09:25:31 09:38:52 00:50:31 05:17:35 03:27:56 36
4 45 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:27:16 09:40:39 00:55:32 05:21:11 03:16:47 44
5 31 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 09:29:21 09:42:47 01:00:40 05:16:06 03:21:06 46
6 34 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:29:28 09:42:54 00:57:14 05:17:01 03:27:18 47
7 32 Bree Wee USA 09:35:26 09:49:01 00:53:56 05:17:40 03:30:49 56
8 33 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:43:43 09:57:30 00:56:17 05:21:16 03:35:15 73
9 43 Julia Grant NZL 09:49:07 10:03:01 00:57:49 05:28:26 03:27:20 82
10 37 Kat Baker AUS 09:49:30 10:03:25 00:55:08 05:21:38 03:42:20 84
11 38 Melanie Burke NZL 09:58:14 10:12:21 01:10:56 05:26:49 03:30:59 102
12 35 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:59:10 10:13:19 00:54:50 05:22:10 03:42:43 105
13 42 Erin Furness NZL 10:10:32 10:24:57 01:03:27 05:32:06 03:35:23 121
41 Andrea Forrest AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
40 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
39 Michelle Duffield AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Andreas Raelert: 54% (1-1)
  • David Dellow: 17% (5-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 10% (9-1)
  • Luke Bell: 7% (14-1)
  • Martin Jensen: 3% (32-1)
  • Matty White: 3% (37-1)
  • Jeremy Jurkiewicz: 2% (43-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 2% (55-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Lucie Reed: 26% (3-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 22% (4-1)
  • Rebecca Preston: 19% (4-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 10% (9-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 9% (10-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 9% (10-1)
  • Rebecca Hoschke: 5% (21-1)

Photo Credits: Jay Prasuhn (2)

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