Ironman France 2015 (June 28th) – Predictions

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Update June 18th: Domenico Passuello mentioned on Twitter that he won’t be starting in Nice.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Herve Faure (FRA) 08:49:06 Mariska Kramer-Postma (NED) 10:12:29
2006 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:33:56 Edith Niederfriniger (ITA) 09:56:32
2007 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:38:45 Alexandra Louison (FRA) 09:49:11
2008 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:34:03 Martina Dogana (ITA) 09:35:29
2009 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:30:06 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:30:29
2010 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:25:28 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:21:29
2011 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:28:30 Silvia Felt (GER) 09:34:31
2012 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:21:51 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:16:05
2013 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:08:59 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:12:54
2014 Bart Aernouts (BEL) 08:33:22 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:12:21

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:51:58 04:46:10 02:49:58 08:33:22
2 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:56:46 04:52:34 02:42:33 08:37:23
3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:51:53 04:54:10 02:49:39 08:40:56

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Tine Deckers BEL 01:00:03 05:06:38 02:59:47 09:12:21
2 Caitlin Snow USA 00:56:17 05:17:56 02:52:26 09:13:02
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:05:13 05:13:28 02:58:06 09:23:58

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:08:59 Frederik Van Lierde 2013-06-23
Swim overall 00:44:18 Gilles Reboul 2006-06-24
Bike overall 04:33:29 Frederik Van Lierde 2013-06-23
Run overall 02:37:01 Bart Aernouts 2013-06-23
Total female 09:12:21 Tine Deckers 2014-06-29
Swim female 00:48:59 Edith Niederfriniger 2006-06-24
Bike female 05:05:22 Christel Robin 2009-06-28
Run female 02:52:26 Caitlin Snow 2014-06-29

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM France is 04:42.

Race Adjustments for IM France

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 11:03 06:06 -01:25 02:26 13 11:03 06:06 -01:25 02:26
2007 10:04 00:26 00:16 08:47 32 10:34 03:16 -00:35 05:37
2008 01:53 -00:41 -01:55 01:59 32 07:40 01:57 -01:02 04:24
2009 03:40 -01:46 00:35 03:27 27 06:40 01:01 -00:37 04:10
2010 10:20 -02:01 -01:36 06:30 26 07:24 00:25 -00:49 04:38
2011 02:03 -00:14 -02:59 02:18 27 06:31 00:18 -01:11 04:15
2012 00:20 00:07 -04:11 04:03 18 05:38 00:17 -01:37 04:13
2013 06:05 00:05 -02:23 09:52 16 05:41 00:15 -01:42 04:55
2014 -03:10 -01:52 -05:16 04:09 24 04:42 00:01 -02:06 04:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM France is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 29 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:30:15 08:39:30 00:54:40 04:45:13 02:45:22 46
2 3 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:31:06 08:44:42 00:47:35 04:39:24 02:59:07 63
3 32 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:34:30 08:35:31 00:47:16 04:50:45 02:51:29 38
4 2 Boris Stein GER 08:36:52 08:37:36 00:55:58 04:41:54 02:53:59 42
5 6 Herve Faure FRA 08:38:12 08:50:38 00:50:36 04:46:21 02:56:14 (86)
6 1 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:39:14 08:51:29 00:54:31 04:42:29 02:57:13 91
7 4 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:44:42 09:08:04 00:48:14 04:59:17 02:52:11 (158)
8 16 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:45:39 08:59:25 00:53:57 04:51:35 02:55:08 122
9 8 Simon Billeau FRA 08:48:31 08:53:46 00:54:02 04:42:43 03:06:46 99
10 27 Joerie Vansteelant BEL 08:48:38 09:04:00 00:59:52 04:43:17 03:00:29 (144)
11 11 Sylvain Rota FRA 08:52:21 08:59:35 00:52:29 04:49:01 03:05:51 (124)
12 28 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:54:48 09:17:42 00:48:06 04:43:12 03:18:29 (199)
13 34 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:56:03 09:03:40 01:00:04 04:50:09 03:00:51 142
14 26 Patrick Jaberg SUI 08:56:45 09:05:02 00:53:34 04:53:41 03:04:30 150
15 24 Cedric Lassonde FRA 08:59:16 09:10:07 00:54:31 04:51:41 03:08:05 (174)
16 25 Tomas Mika CZE 09:02:53 09:10:42 00:55:08 05:07:58 02:54:47 177
17 21 Rinus Holvoet BEL 09:10:28 09:26:28 00:52:30 05:02:31 03:10:27 (242)
18 47 Remy Vasseur NED 09:15:49 09:21:55 00:54:00 05:05:57 03:10:52 (226)
19 10 Anthony Pannier FRA 09:17:24 09:36:27 00:47:39 04:49:11 03:35:35 (282)
20 7 Herve Banti MEX 09:18:14 09:54:48 00:51:55 05:07:16 03:14:03 (352)
21 46 Leonardo Simoncini ITA 09:19:16 09:38:05 00:54:04 05:13:51 03:06:21 (291)
22 31 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:20:28 09:31:54 00:58:14 05:01:02 03:16:12 263
23 13 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:23:09 09:31:24 00:57:07 05:04:14 03:16:48 260
24 33 Dan McGuigan AUS 09:27:31 09:49:07 01:01:49 04:55:17 03:25:26 (321)
25 30 Rafael Espinar Puig ESP 09:32:00 09:43:52 01:01:42 05:15:34 03:09:44 (307)
26 23 Roman Krutina CZE 09:59:09 10:16:34 00:56:54 05:15:31 03:41:44 (409)
27 14 Remmert Wielinga NED 09:59:36 10:30:40 01:11:47 05:05:15 03:37:34 (446)
28 20 Christian Funk GER 10:51:48 11:04:17 01:25:03 05:47:00 03:34:44 (463)
5 Sylvain Sudrie FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
9 Drew Scott USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Frederic Schaffner FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Alexander Wulff DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 David Claerebout LUX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Frederik Flagstad GRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Matteo Fontana ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Guillaume Jeannin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

The KPR situation for the men looks very interesting. Among the participants, Romain Guillaume (4.950) is already safe for a Kona slot. For Domenico Passuello (3.000) and Jeremy Juekiewicz (2.755) a podium spot should be enough, while Mauro Baertsch (1.905), Mike Schifferle (1.760) and Patrick Jaberg (1.724) would need a win to get close to the projected cutoff of 3.800 points. Simon Billeau (1.570), Victor Del Corral (1.420) and Drew Scott (1.280) are probably too far back for a July slot even with a good result in France, but could improve their position for qualifying in future races.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 35 Caitlin Snow USA 09:16:23 09:29:50 00:54:59 05:19:51 02:56:33 25
2 36 Lisa Roberts USA 09:25:04 09:41:40 01:03:51 05:14:42 03:01:31 46
3 37 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:34:59 09:55:59 00:56:41 05:15:00 03:18:18 77
4 38 Emma Pooley GBR 09:35:29 09:46:16 01:07:41 05:03:51 03:18:56 (53)
5 41 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:06:35 10:17:30 00:59:30 05:33:39 03:28:26 120
6 43 Nicole Woysch GER 10:18:39 10:28:48 00:58:37 05:32:22 03:42:40 147
7 40 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:31:55 10:43:49 01:03:14 05:39:53 03:43:48 (158)
8 45 Anna Rovira Garrido ESP 10:48:27 11:13:57 01:18:59 05:36:31 03:47:57 (166)
39 Carol Anne Bridge GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
42 Stephanie Reymond FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

The female athletes are mainly racing for the prestige of winning an Ironman. The best placed athlete in the KPR is Cait Snow, but with 1.735 points even she is far short of the projected cutoff of 5.100 points.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the numbers, it looks like a close race between Victor Del Corral (2nd last year) and Romain Guillaume (10th in Kona), but Victor has been struggling to have a good result since last year (DNF in Kona, 9th in South Africa). Domenico Passuello has bib #1, he is the recent winner of IM Taiwan. Jeremy Jurkiewicz was fourth here last year, and Boris Stein had great results last summer, winning IM Switzerland.

  • Victor Del Corral: 30% (2-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 27% (3-1)
  • Domenico Passuello: 22% (4-1)
  • Jeremy Jurkiewicz: 11% (8-1)
  • Boris Stein: 6% (15-1)
The Iron rookies Sylvain Sudrie (previously ITU Long Distance World Champion) and Drew Scott could be interesting additions.

Female Race Participants

Last year’s second (Cait Snow) and third place (Lisa Roberts) are back to contend for the title this year, while Jean Collonge will try be the first French winner since 2007. Emma Pooley will make the race interesting, her strength on the bike is well suited for the tough and technical course in Nice, and I expect her to be at the front of the race in T2. Emma has run a stand-alone marathon in 2:44, so she surely wants to prove she can run faster in an Ironman than the 3:21 she ran in Melbourne.

  • Caitlin Snow: 46% (1-1)
  • Lisa Roberts: 37% (2-1)
  • Jeanne Collonge: 11% (8-1)
  • Emma Pooley: 5% (19-1)
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