Ironman Mallorca 2015 (September 26th) – Predictions

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Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2014 Tim Don (GBR) 08:34:02 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 09:24:17

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Tim Don GBR 00:45:25 04:51:21 02:52:07 08:34:02
2 Miguel Fidalgo ESP 00:45:36 04:58:45 02:49:01 08:38:08
3 Mike Aigroz SUI 00:45:31 04:51:06 02:59:26 08:40:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eimear Mullan IRL 00:55:13 05:13:01 03:10:26 09:24:17
2 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:50:10 05:11:15 03:19:40 09:27:09
3 Astrid Stienen GER 00:55:14 05:12:17 03:17:18 09:31:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:34:02 Tim Don 2014-09-27
Swim overall 00:44:46 Manuel Kueng 2014-09-27
Bike overall 04:48:20 Manuel Kueng 2014-09-27
Run overall 02:47:30 Miquel Blanchart Tinto 2014-09-27
Total female 09:24:17 Eimear Mullan 2014-09-27
Swim female 00:49:52 Mette Pettersen Moe 2014-09-27
Bike female 05:04:52 Nina Kuhn 2014-09-27
Run female 03:10:26 Eimear Mullan 2014-09-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mallorca is 02:48.

Race Adjustments for IM Mallorca

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2014 02:48 02:31 00:41 03:09 32 02:48 02:31 00:41 03:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mallorca is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 2 Timo Bracht GER 08:21:12 08:22:35 00:47:11 04:37:39 02:51:21 7
2 1 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:28:22 08:31:46 00:50:23 04:45:20 02:47:39 25
3 38 James Cunnama ZAF 08:30:30 08:40:40 00:47:38 04:41:01 02:56:51 52
4 7 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:36:52 08:48:03 00:46:17 04:40:37 03:04:58 82
5 8 Johann Ackermann GER 08:38:22 08:47:51 00:47:04 04:41:22 03:04:56 (80)
6 36 David Plese SLO 08:39:40 08:39:59 00:50:53 04:45:20 02:58:27 48
7 3 Horst Reichel GER 08:39:51 08:59:48 00:47:00 04:46:18 03:01:34 125
8 31 Mathias Hecht SUI 08:41:10 09:08:03 00:46:05 04:44:31 03:05:33 (157)
9 5 Miguel Fidalgo ESP 08:41:14 08:52:11 00:46:05 04:58:25 02:51:44 (97)
10 41 Michael Ruenz GER 08:44:00 09:03:04 00:51:02 04:51:30 02:56:29 139
11 6 Herve Faure FRA 08:44:47 08:50:38 00:49:15 04:47:49 03:02:43 (90)
12 21 Chris McDonald AUS 08:45:27 08:45:32 00:51:13 04:45:44 03:03:29 68
13 40 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:48:19 09:01:07 00:51:48 04:51:29 03:00:02 129
14 19 Andreas Linden SWE 08:48:27 09:01:52 00:56:43 04:32:33 03:14:11 (133)
15 32 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 08:48:51 09:12:39 00:45:35 04:57:20 03:00:55 (182)
16 4 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:49:11 09:08:04 00:46:44 05:01:02 02:56:25 (157)
17 34 Christian Brader GER 08:52:05 08:54:25 00:54:21 04:54:48 02:57:57 107
18 29 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:55:10 08:56:30 00:46:05 04:53:36 03:10:30 114
19 24 Ouilleres Gwenael FRA 08:56:01 09:09:38 00:49:37 04:54:04 03:07:20 (167)
20 37 Flo Kriegl AUT 09:03:11 09:06:47 00:53:11 04:57:06 03:07:54 (154)
21 10 Herve Banti MCO 09:10:04 09:20:14 00:49:52 04:52:49 03:22:23 (214)
22 14 Martin Droell GER 09:12:12 09:26:14 00:56:01 05:01:08 03:10:03 (237)
23 20 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:12:55 09:21:06 00:51:04 05:06:47 03:10:05 219
24 28 Rene Vallant AUT 09:22:00 09:41:44 00:53:53 04:52:42 03:30:26 (300)
25 22 Urs Mueller SWI 09:24:30 09:33:14 00:54:15 05:02:41 03:22:34 (267)
26 25 Alfred Rahm GER 09:37:56 09:59:49 01:01:44 05:09:46 03:21:26 (361)
27 15 Rafael Espinar Puig ESP 09:39:59 09:42:40 01:00:18 05:21:48 03:12:53 303
28 35 Lukas Polan CZE 09:48:19 10:07:42 01:01:00 05:12:26 03:29:53 393
29 16 Ivan Kharin RUS 09:51:23 10:14:07 01:05:06 05:13:29 03:27:48 411
30 13 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:55:17 10:10:41 00:45:17 05:23:00 03:42:00 398
31 23 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:04:38 10:26:12 00:57:00 05:08:08 03:54:30 (449)
32 17 Teemu Kyllonen FIN 10:12:15 10:27:09 00:59:51 05:18:40 03:48:43 453
33 30 Valentin Zasypkin RUS 10:36:01 11:18:02 01:05:42 05:38:12 03:47:07 (479)
9 Francisco Alvarez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Thomas Bosch GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Antonio Cardona ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Frederic Limousin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Kevin Rundstadler FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
27 Andreas Thissen GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
39 Michael Van Cleven BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 51 Anja Beranek GER 09:19:32 09:19:01 00:49:23 05:03:31 03:21:39 12
2 69 Diana Riesler GER 09:22:33 09:32:41 00:55:25 05:04:30 03:17:39 30
3 52 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:31:09 09:58:47 00:56:10 05:18:15 03:11:44 86
4 63 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:35:46 09:40:55 00:52:46 05:14:37 03:23:23 49
5 60 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:39:32 09:49:46 01:05:07 05:14:42 03:14:42 67
6 70 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:45:00 09:52:11 00:55:05 05:09:42 03:35:13 74
7 65 Tineke Van den Berg NED 09:46:46 09:55:37 01:02:42 05:14:55 03:24:09 82
8 62 Kamila Polak AUT 09:46:56 09:58:33 00:56:29 05:22:55 03:22:32 (85)
9 53 Natascha Schmitt GER 09:48:33 10:05:29 00:51:52 05:32:29 03:19:12 105
10 61 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:54:28 09:58:38 00:58:39 05:25:14 03:25:35 85
11 58 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:56:58 10:02:37 01:05:30 05:31:45 03:14:43 96
12 56 Eleanor Haresign GBR 09:59:51 10:11:05 00:57:05 05:26:42 03:31:04 115
13 68 Verena Walter GER 10:01:23 10:06:41 00:57:19 05:26:29 03:32:35 109
14 55 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:04:01 10:09:35 01:10:03 05:27:55 03:21:03 113
15 66 Nicole Woysch GER 10:20:52 10:47:51 00:56:30 05:32:28 03:46:54 (175)
16 54 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:21:20 10:36:26 01:01:31 05:43:05 03:31:43 167
17 57 Corina Hengartner SWI 10:31:36 10:47:39 01:00:45 05:31:14 03:54:37 (175)
59 Emma Kate Lidbury GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
64 Alexandra Tondeur BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
67 Nina Kuhn GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Timo Bracht is the clear favorite for the race. Last year he was the pre-race favorite as well, but he was tired after racing a lot in the summer. This year, he seems to be more focused on the race:

  • Timo Bracht: 45% (1-1)
  • Alessandro Degasperi: 15% (6-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 14% (6-1)
  • James Cunnama: 10% (9-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 6% (15-1)
  • David Plese: 3% (33-1)
  • Mathias Hecht: 3% (36-1)

Female Race Participants

The female race is harder to predict – mainly because I believe that there will be a few changes to the start list. Anja Beranek has just won IM Wales and might not start, Diana Riesler is getting ready for Kona. If these two are not racing, the favorite would be defending champion Eimear Mullan, but she has struggled with injuries during the summer.

  • Anja Beranek: 58% (1-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 25% (3-1)
  • Eimear Mullan: 10% (9-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 3% (29-1)
  • Daniela Saemmler: 2% (50-1)
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