Ironman Mont Tremblant (Aug 21st) – Predictions

IMMT

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:40:48 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:30:46
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:26:06 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:07:56
2014 TJ Tollakson (USA) 08:16:17 Sara Gross (CAN) 09:40:26
2015 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:17:37 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:09:05

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jordan Rapp USA 00:51:33 04:25:01 02:55:53 08:17:37
2 Justin Daerr USA 00:51:39 04:41:50 02:57:41 08:36:12
3 Paul Ambrose AUS 00:50:56 04:37:06 03:04:26 08:38:12

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:50:22 04:53:21 03:20:02 09:09:05
2 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:52:03 05:01:15 03:10:56 09:09:55
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:04:30 05:02:47 03:00:37 09:13:45

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:17 TJ Tollakson 2014-08-17
Swim overall 00:47:45 Brandon Marsh 2013-08-18
Bike overall 04:25:01 Jordan Rapp 2015-08-16
Run overall 02:52:20 Stefan Schmid 2013-08-18
Total female 09:07:56 Mary Beth Ellis 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:49:22 Haley Chura 2013-08-18
Bike female 04:53:21 Mary Beth Ellis 2015-08-16
Run female 03:00:37 Lisa Roberts 2015-08-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mont Tremblant is 07:10.

Race Adjustments for IM Mont Tremblant

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 09:58 -01:07 06:23 04:34 13 09:58 -01:07 06:23 04:34
2013 04:48 -00:33 03:38 03:49 36 07:23 -00:50 05:00 04:12
2014 07:49 -01:34 02:33 05:06 16 of 24 07:31 -01:04 04:11 04:30
2015 06:04 00:04 07:17 01:14 35 of 41 07:10 -00:47 04:58 03:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mont Tremblant is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:22:34 08:29:37 00:53:05 04:30:12 02:54:17 77% +8% -15% (19) 21
2 8 Callum Millward NZL 08:22:51 08:31:20 00:49:13 04:37:55 02:50:43 53% +0% -47% (5) (26)
3 7 Paul Matthews AUS 08:26:22 08:31:09 00:47:48 04:37:06 02:56:29 35% +0% -65% (9) 24
4 6 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:28:27 08:32:59 00:49:56 04:20:57 03:12:34 60% +0% -40% (7) 31
5 3 Matthew Russell USA 08:30:28 08:46:02 00:57:42 04:35:45 02:52:01 52% +33% -15% (37) 79
6 9 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:31:00 08:39:51 00:56:29 04:39:51 02:49:40 59% +0% -41% (14) 54
7 2 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:31:15 08:49:26 00:49:12 04:33:48 03:03:16 52% +18% -30% (28) 89
8 24 Eric Limkemann USA 08:35:03 08:43:42 00:50:25 04:37:01 03:02:36 50% +32% -18% (4) (66)
9 5 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:35:26 09:00:17 00:50:33 04:36:38 03:03:15 41% +4% -56% (20) 125
10 4 Chris McDonald AUS 08:42:23 08:46:05 00:54:17 04:41:01 03:02:05 67% +7% -26% (42) 80
11 16 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:43:33 09:01:16 00:54:41 04:38:09 03:05:43 39% +11% -51% (21) 129
12 29 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:44:13 08:54:44 00:54:22 04:39:30 03:05:21 63% +10% -26% (14) 100
13 20 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 08:47:45 09:11:37 00:55:55 04:46:38 03:00:13 59% +40% -1% (8) 164
14 15 Scott Defilippis USA 08:50:00 09:11:49 00:57:10 04:53:46 02:54:04 32% +29% -39% (22) 167
15 11 Christopher Bagg USA 08:56:37 09:26:21 00:54:43 04:48:27 03:08:26 8% +36% -56% (12) 210
16 13 Guy Crawford NZL 08:59:21 09:14:38 00:49:49 04:40:26 03:24:06 27% +37% -36% (12) 179
17 19 Chad Holderbaum USA 09:04:15 09:13:54 00:55:22 04:50:00 03:13:53 41% +9% -50% (10) 176
18 14 Matthew Curbeau USA 09:05:32 09:25:58 00:56:38 04:49:04 03:14:51 33% +43% -24% (6) 208
19 25 James Lubinski USA 09:08:26 09:28:28 01:03:21 04:54:44 03:05:21 38% +35% -27% (17) 217
20 23 Colin Laughery USA 09:14:57 09:22:30 00:59:51 04:57:55 03:12:11 100% +0% -0% (3) (197)
21 27 Brendan Naef CAN 09:15:17 09:34:31 00:58:09 04:59:24 03:12:43 51% +49% -0% (8) 230
22 28 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:17:06 09:52:27 00:56:49 05:01:21 03:13:56 6% +19% -75% (8) (263)
23 18 Travis Hawkins USA 09:36:23 09:50:05 01:03:07 05:07:43 03:20:33 100% +0% -0% (2) (261)
24 21 Peter Kotland CZE 09:36:41 09:55:55 00:59:52 05:03:15 03:28:35 54% +26% -21% (21) 266
25 12 Timothy Clarke USA 09:47:06 10:06:57 00:57:38 05:09:16 03:35:12 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (278)
10 Chris Leiferman USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Nick Glavac USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 David Lacombe CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
26 Jerome McEniry CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 35 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:09:43 09:18:10 00:51:19 04:57:52 03:15:32 94% +0% -6% (18) 14
2 37 Carrie Lester AUS 09:11:53 09:25:57 00:54:50 05:02:22 03:09:42 49% +36% -15% (19) 23
3 36 Amanda Stevens USA 09:22:28 09:30:05 00:52:21 05:10:49 03:14:17 60% +21% -19% (17) 28
4 38 Uli Bromme USA 09:37:45 09:51:41 01:03:53 05:10:33 03:18:19 35% +38% -27% (14) 70
5 40 Amber Ferreira USA 09:40:01 09:55:26 00:57:34 05:14:28 03:23:00 43% +21% -36% (15) 80
6 39 Laurel Wassner USA 09:44:31 09:52:41 00:55:43 05:28:05 03:15:43 68% +0% -32% (8) 73
7 41 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:49:27 10:11:07 00:56:51 05:19:54 03:27:42 22% +6% -72% (27) 109
8 46 Caroline St-Pierre CAN 09:57:34 10:20:51 00:56:51 05:36:38 03:19:04 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (132)
9 45 Caroline Martineau CAN 10:12:48 10:35:05 01:04:30 05:27:15 03:36:02 42% +36% -22% (5) (158)
10 42 Katy Cargiulo USA 10:48:22 10:58:14 01:05:45 05:55:05 03:42:32 100% +0% -0% (3) (166)
43 Michelle Harburg USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
44 Jessica Jones USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
47 Amy Vantassel USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
48 Amanda Wendorff USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Jordan Rapp: 29% (2-1)
  • Callum Millward: 15% (6-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 14% (6-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 12% (7-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 8% (12-1)
  • Eric Limkemann: 6% (15-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 6% (17-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 4% (22-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 4% (27-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 48% (1-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 39% (2-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 8% (11-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 2% (47-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 2% (55-1)

KPR Situation

Here are tables with the top-ranked athletes in the KPR (after the races of August 6th and 7th) that still have a chance for a Kona slot:

Top KPR Male Race Participants

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
3 Matthew Russell USA 6650 3+2 (720/180)
8 Callum Millward NZL 3580 2+3 (685/435)
4 Chris McDonald AUS 3525 3+2 (540/20)
7 Paul Matthews AUS 3225 1+3 (2455/145)
2 Romain Guillaume FRA 2535 2+3 (565/20)
1 Jordan Rapp USA 2510 3+1 (340/0)
6 Andrew Starykowicz USA 2500 1+3 (960/400)
9 Victor Del Corral ESP 2320 1+2
29 Jonathan Shearon USA 2115 3+2 (230/100)
10 Chris Leiferman USA 1615 0+3 (0/435)

Top KPR Female Race Participants

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
35 Mary Beth Ellis USA 4900 2+3 (1900/180)
37 Carrie Lester AUS 4420 2+2
36 Amanda Stevens USA 2925 2+3 (720/145)
39 Laurel Wassner USA 2405 2+3 (340/75)
41 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 1775 1+3 (540/400)

Mary Beth Ellis has already raced in Maastricht (and won there basically securing a Kona slot) and Carrie Lester received a July slot. Both are unlikely to race before Kona.

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