Ironman South Africa 2015 (March 29th) – Predictions

LogoSAYou can submit your picks for this race on IM-Predictions.

Update March 28th: The day before the race, Linsey Corbin had to announce she won’t be able to start.

Update March 23rd: Based on the latest start list, there have been a few cancellations: Michael Weiss, Emanuele Ciotti, Will Clarke, Karol Dzalaj, Martin Jensen, Beth Shutt, Anja Beranek, Svetlana Blazevic, Amy Forshaw, Caroline Koll, Kathrin Walther.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Reed (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Nils Frommhold GER 00:48:17 04:37:12 02:55:59 08:26:07
2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:49:53 04:41:03 02:57:33 08:32:39
3 Faris Al-Sultan GER 00:48:27 04:43:34 02:56:59 08:33:19

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Simone Braendli SUI 00:51:00 05:26:55 03:09:08 09:31:54
2 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:59:50 05:18:47 03:09:55 09:33:07
3 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:48:34 05:21:19 03:19:40 09:33:59

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:05:36 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:45:48 Gerrit Schellens 2007-03-18
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:40 Lucie Reed 2009-04-05
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 02:32.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -01:19 -05:30 -06:50 00:02 10 -01:19 -05:30 -06:50 00:02
2007 -04:20 -09:38 01:16 -01:19 20 -02:49 -07:34 -02:47 -00:38
2008 16:56 00:25 10:16 01:52 29 03:46 -04:54 01:34 00:12
2009 12:53 01:21 10:04 -01:03 24 06:03 -03:21 03:42 -00:07
2010 08:27 -00:56 07:35 01:33 28 06:31 -02:52 04:28 00:13
2011 12:08 -00:26 12:10 02:27 33 07:27 -02:27 05:45 00:35
2012 -12:53 -09:05 -09:57 02:26 23 04:33 -03:24 03:31 00:51
2013 06:17 -01:51 09:24 02:28 28 04:46 -03:12 04:15 01:03
2014 -15:21 -01:38 -12:46 -01:19 23 02:32 -03:02 02:21 00:47

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 150k$. As a Regional Championship the Melbourne winners will receive an Automatic Qualifier spot for Kona 2015.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:18:40 08:19:33 00:49:59 04:31:12 02:52:29 3
2 40 Ivan Rana ESP 08:23:13 08:27:21 00:50:03 04:38:40 02:49:30 15
3 6 Bas Diederen NED 08:23:18 08:33:25 00:49:38 04:34:26 02:54:14 25
4 4 Michael Weiss AUT 08:23:32 08:31:05 00:56:29 04:25:37 02:56:26 18
5 33 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:24:09 08:22:10 00:50:45 04:33:39 02:54:45 5
6 5 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:24:39 08:38:47 00:51:32 04:30:27 02:57:40 39
7 1 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:26:37 08:33:41 00:53:01 04:35:17 02:53:19 26
8 18 James Cunnama ZAF 08:27:52 08:41:19 00:51:29 04:34:52 02:56:30 52
9 3 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:27:56 08:25:34 00:54:54 04:39:04 02:48:57 8
10 7 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:28:50 08:37:08 00:50:45 04:35:29 02:57:36 (36)
11 46 TJ Tollakson USA 08:32:31 08:40:56 00:51:37 04:33:18 03:02:35 51
12 21 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:33:47 08:34:53 00:57:51 04:40:16 02:50:40 31
13 23 Marc Duelsen GER 08:34:54 08:38:48 00:55:57 04:35:25 02:58:33 40
14 39 David Plese SLO 08:35:13 08:42:09 00:56:00 04:39:07 02:55:06 53
15 10 Konstantin Bachor GER 08:35:26 08:39:59 00:51:55 04:30:49 03:07:42 45
16 13 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:35:38 08:45:44 00:50:50 04:34:20 03:05:27 60
17 14 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:36:02 08:46:02 00:49:54 04:41:45 02:59:22 (63)
18 30 Martin Jensen DEN 08:36:19 08:33:58 00:52:39 04:40:27 02:58:13 (28)
19 43 Boris Stein GER 08:38:57 08:37:36 00:59:01 04:37:22 02:57:35 37
20 9 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:38:59 08:47:16 00:50:43 04:38:41 03:04:36 72
21 22 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:41:05 08:48:39 00:55:45 04:43:54 02:56:26 80
22 25 Herve Faure FRA 08:41:14 08:50:38 00:53:30 04:39:59 03:02:45 (85)
23 41 Michael Ruenz GER 08:43:41 08:56:20 00:56:15 04:46:08 02:56:18 112
24 31 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:45:17 08:48:27 00:55:49 04:41:14 03:03:14 79
25 50 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:45:24 08:49:18 00:56:41 04:44:02 02:59:41 83
26 8 Johann Ackermann GER 08:45:58 09:04:27 00:51:01 04:45:03 03:04:55 (144)
27 44 Swen Sundberg GER 08:49:07 08:48:40 00:55:18 04:43:26 03:05:24 81
28 34 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 08:53:38 09:07:11 00:50:11 04:53:59 03:04:28 (153)
29 20 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:53:50 09:06:57 00:57:52 04:49:39 03:01:19 (151)
30 11 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:54:43 09:13:31 00:51:01 04:40:45 03:17:57 (186)
31 24 Karol Dzalaj SVK 08:56:39 09:08:46 00:56:38 04:41:21 03:13:40 167
32 28 Kent Horner ZAF 08:58:10 09:20:39 00:50:15 04:44:24 03:18:31 218
33 42 Till Schramm GER 08:58:27 09:34:56 00:58:51 04:41:50 03:12:46 (273)
34 19 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 09:03:59 09:13:32 00:51:41 04:45:25 03:21:53 186
35 27 Hannes Cool BEL 09:04:01 09:12:51 00:54:31 04:51:57 03:12:33 (186)
36 47 Craig Twigg GBR 09:11:39 09:46:47 00:55:42 04:42:52 03:28:04 320
37 17 Greg Close USA 09:13:36 09:19:08 00:59:20 04:59:43 03:09:33 209
38 35 Jim Lubinski USA 09:15:00 09:36:41 01:05:16 05:01:36 03:03:08 282
39 49 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:19:45 09:31:11 00:59:44 04:55:39 03:19:22 (258)
40 12 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:42:21 09:55:22 00:59:16 05:03:51 03:34:14 (355)
41 32 Roman Krutina CZE 10:01:35 10:16:34 00:59:58 05:10:21 03:46:16 (416)
15 Emanuele Ciotti ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Will Clarke GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Frederik Flagstad GRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
29 Allan Hovda NOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 David Mcnamee GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
37 Johannes Moldan GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
45 Sylvain Sudrie FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
48 Urs Mueller SWI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Will Clarke has already announced that he will need some extra time to get in shape for an Ironman.

Martin Jensen hurt his leg sprinting for the finish line in Dubai, and he also won’t be able to start.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 81 Eva Wutti AUT 09:11:10 09:14:44 01:00:10 04:57:13 03:08:46 6
2 51 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:12:40 09:14:59 00:50:34 04:59:09 03:17:57 7
3 75 Diana Riesler GER 09:17:53 09:40:35 01:00:33 04:56:17 03:16:03 44
4 52 Linsey Corbin USA 09:17:55 09:20:20 01:00:26 05:06:23 03:06:07 11
5 54 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:18:41 09:25:40 01:00:44 05:04:15 03:08:41 20
6 60 Tine Deckers BEL 09:18:50 09:33:00 01:01:13 05:02:39 03:09:58 30
7 38 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:20:16 09:24:44 00:53:50 05:04:20 03:17:07 17
8 57 Anja Beranek GER 09:20:18 09:32:43 00:55:31 05:00:15 03:19:32 (30)
9 79 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:22:25 09:30:34 01:04:40 05:04:19 03:08:25 26
10 78 Caitlin Snow USA 09:22:55 09:28:28 00:57:58 05:18:16 03:01:41 21
11 72 Britta Martin NZL 09:26:12 09:31:11 01:01:54 05:10:32 03:08:47 28
12 74 Lucie Reed CZE 09:34:11 09:41:14 00:53:01 05:14:44 03:21:26 45
13 63 Astrid Ganzow GER 09:40:46 09:45:38 01:01:41 05:07:56 03:26:09 57
14 61 Amber Ferreira USA 09:41:03 09:46:26 00:58:25 05:17:55 03:19:43 58
15 53 Beth Shutt USA 09:51:17 09:53:13 01:03:54 05:22:48 03:19:35 71
16 55 Stefanie Adam BEL 09:53:32 10:14:24 00:59:01 05:05:52 03:43:39 (119)
17 67 Jessica Meyers USA 09:53:33 09:59:15 01:03:31 05:23:45 03:21:17 89
18 80 Kathrin Walther GER 09:57:39 10:20:34 01:03:13 05:15:02 03:34:24 135
19 70 Maria Lemeseva RUS 10:00:17 10:07:46 01:11:49 05:23:21 03:20:08 104
20 65 Eleanor Haresign GBR 10:00:26 10:13:45 01:03:32 05:14:35 03:37:19 (117)
21 56 Anne Basso FRA 10:01:30 10:27:55 01:00:35 05:24:59 03:30:56 151
22 73 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:01:41 10:15:52 01:02:38 05:23:07 03:30:56 120
23 58 Svetlana Blazevic SRB 10:07:28 10:13:53 00:55:03 05:26:56 03:40:29 117
24 69 Heather Leiggi USA 10:08:20 10:18:55 01:03:18 05:29:42 03:30:20 130
25 62 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:18:15 10:28:18 01:07:25 05:35:19 03:30:31 152
26 64 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:33:15 10:42:16 01:07:09 05:36:07 03:45:00 161
27 68 Caroline Koll ZAF 10:55:27 11:07:54 01:02:50 05:55:29 03:52:08 170
28 77 Linda Scattolin ITA 11:18:34 11:38:55 01:11:19 05:48:29 04:13:46 (175)
59 Susie Cheetham GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
66 Corina Hengartner SWI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
71 Caroline Livesey GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
76 Riana Robertson ZAF n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Linda Scattolin (together with ex-Pro Edith Niederfriniger) has been in a horrible bike crash while training and passed away.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Frederik Van Lierde has to be considered the favorite: He is a very solid athlete, and the only question is what shape he’ll be in this early in the year. Based on previous results, Ivan Rana is his main rival: His recent result in Kona was not what he was looking for, but even after a bad bike leg he still ran a very strong 2:44 marathon.

My expectation is that the race in South Africa will be made interesting by the local athletes that would love to win the title for their home country. Kyle Buckingham was close last year (he finished 2nd to Nils Frommhold), Matt Trautmann seems to be in great shape (he won IM Wales in 2014 and 70.3 South Africa earlier this year), and while James Cunnama has been struggling a bit in the last years, he has the potential for a great performance.

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 26% (3-1)
  • Ivan Rana: 19% (4-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 9% (11-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 7% (12-1)
  • James Cunnama: 6% (15-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 6% (16-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 5% (20-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 4% (21-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 2% (45-1)

Female Race Participants

There are a number of female athletes with very good statistical chances that may not be on top of everybody’s list: Tine Deckers (unbeaten at IM France for years), Diana Riesler (recent winner of IM Malaysia) or Eva Wutti (fast, but often DNFs) have excellent chances to win the race on a good day.

Jodie Swallow has been  working hard to win South Africa, and as she lives and trains a lot in Stellenbosch, she will be the local favorite. Her last results have been very consistent, so this year she could finally take the top spot on the podium.

Linsey Corbin will make life hard for athletes mentioned so far – and she will want to finish better than her fourth place seeding. Lucy Gossage hasn’t had a great Kona last year, but is always very strong at the start of the season – and she was also very close to winning last year. A couple of German athletes – Sonja Tajsich Anja Beranek – are also looking for a great result in South Africa after some injury problems and missing Kona qualifying in 2014, as will Camilla Pedersen (winner of IM Germany 2013).

  • Tine Deckers: 26% (3-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 19% (4-1)
  • Eva Wutti: 16% (5-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 14% (6-1)
  • Jodie Swallow: 10% (9-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 5% (21-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich: 4% (26-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 3% (39-1)

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. TriNews: Meredith Kessler on Kids, Kona, Wine and Winning, Plus: Latest Race Results and Previews | Endurance Planet - March 18, 2015

    […] Ironman South Africa (March 29th) […]

Powered by WordPress. Designed by Woo Themes

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close