Ironman Switzerland 2015 (July 19th) – Predictions

IMSUIUpdate (July 10th): Corinne Abraham and Eimear Mullan are no longer on the startlist posted by ironman.com.

Update (July 14th): Matt Trautmann has tweeted that he has broken his clavicle. Speedy healing, I hope he’ll be back in form for Kona.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Christoph Mauch (SUI) 08:21:48 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:10:51
2006 Mathias Hecht (SUI) 08:26:01 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:24:18
2007 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:24:58 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:20:40
2008 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:16:05 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:30:12
2009 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:20:00 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:14:35
2010 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:12:40 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:00:04
2011 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:19:51 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:03:26
2012 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:17:13 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:20:16
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:33:39 Anja Beranek (GER) 09:21:31
2014 Boris Stein (GER) 08:33:02 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 09:13:30

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Boris Stein GER 00:58:49 04:35:55 02:53:49 08:33:02
2 David Plese SLO 00:56:44 04:37:35 02:54:51 08:34:13
3 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:51:23 04:51:09 02:53:46 08:40:40

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:56:41 05:00:18 03:11:03 09:13:30
2 Natascha Badmann SUI 01:05:10 04:55:00 03:23:01 09:28:37
3 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:05:14 04:59:49 03:19:13 09:29:15

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:40 Ronnie Schildknecht 2010-07-25
Swim overall 00:45:29 Benjamin Sanson 2005-07-15
Bike overall 04:27:42 Ronnie Schildknecht 2012-07-15
Run overall 02:41:58 Clemente Alonso McKernan 2011-07-10
Total female 09:00:04 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Swim female 00:51:23 Celine Schaerer 2014-07-27
Bike female 04:43:53 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Run female 03:00:27 Kristin Moeller 2014-07-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Switzerland is 06:06.

Race Adjustments for IM Switzerland

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19 6 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19
2006 15:12 01:09 04:34 00:02 21 05:41 00:47 03:40 -03:39
2007 16:28 -01:00 10:07 01:36 26 09:17 00:11 05:49 -01:54
2008 08:26 -00:10 01:43 01:50 22 09:04 00:06 04:48 -00:58
2009 12:10 -00:57 05:49 05:20 30 09:41 -00:07 05:00 00:18
2010 06:52 -01:25 05:36 02:00 27 09:13 -00:20 05:06 00:35
2011 09:41 -02:31 00:57 07:25 17 09:17 -00:39 04:30 01:34
2012 07:00 -03:11 04:02 02:15 24 09:00 -00:58 04:27 01:39
2013 -09:50 -05:13 02:43 -05:14 35 06:54 -01:26 04:15 00:53
2014 -01:06 -03:47 05:01 -00:18 25 06:06 -01:40 04:20 00:46

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Switzerland is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:19:56 08:27:12 00:52:33 04:30:08 02:52:15 16
2 35 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:24:13 08:30:45 00:51:49 04:34:05 02:53:19 20
3 31 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:26:51 08:38:35 00:53:46 04:37:06 02:50:59 (45)
4 2 David Plese SLO 08:30:15 08:38:56 00:53:59 04:35:29 02:55:47 45
5 5 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:32:11 08:44:39 00:49:33 04:37:01 03:00:38 64
6 28 Michael Raelert GER 08:32:48 08:42:24 00:49:00 04:39:11 02:59:36 (57)
7 11 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:34:53 08:42:51 00:50:19 04:48:04 02:51:30 58
8 3 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:38:13 08:53:24 00:48:47 04:36:14 03:08:12 100
9 7 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:39:09 08:57:55 00:49:00 04:44:32 03:00:37 121
10 29 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:44:00 09:04:39 00:58:27 04:45:50 02:54:43 148
11 6 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:48:54 09:05:06 00:55:13 04:49:58 02:58:43 151
12 4 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:54:49 09:03:47 01:01:25 04:44:10 03:04:14 143
13 8 Rafael Wyss SUI 08:56:22 09:14:58 01:01:14 04:45:16 03:04:52 (198)
14 17 Martin Matula CZE 08:57:42 09:00:30 00:54:04 04:55:01 03:03:36 (131)
15 30 Manuel Kueng SUI 08:58:35 09:26:25 00:48:02 04:45:00 03:20:34 (246)
16 14 Kevin Everett USA 09:01:33 09:20:48 00:48:15 04:35:33 03:32:45 (226)
17 9 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 09:04:58 09:11:22 00:55:22 04:58:20 03:06:16 181
18 15 Rinus Holvoet BEL 09:13:17 09:25:13 00:54:41 04:55:55 03:17:41 (245)
19 23 Damien With FRA 09:15:10 09:32:48 00:54:04 04:53:53 03:22:12 (274)
20 21 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:21:41 09:31:24 00:58:46 04:57:08 03:20:47 266
21 27 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:36:59 10:19:03 00:52:44 05:13:56 03:25:18 432
22 33 David Jilek CZE 09:37:35 09:47:14 01:00:54 05:00:22 03:31:19 327
23 25 Lukas Polan CZE 09:42:00 09:59:32 01:05:04 05:04:02 03:27:55 372
24 38 Ivan Kharin RUS 09:46:58 10:02:58 01:09:25 05:05:30 03:27:03 (380)
25 12 Dan Brown PHI 09:54:58 11:12:34 01:04:19 05:13:31 03:32:08 482
26 20 Matthew Smith CZE 09:55:48 10:10:52 01:04:36 05:23:26 03:22:46 (410)
27 13 Rod De Kanel FRA 10:21:39 10:41:24 00:54:12 05:10:48 04:11:39 (469)
28 24 Valentin Zasypkin RUS 10:32:06 11:11:19 01:10:04 05:29:52 03:47:10 (482)
29 26 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:24:03 12:03:47 01:12:07 05:42:30 04:24:26 486
10 Martin Bader AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Thomas Kaiser GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Mathias Nagel GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Pascal Ramali GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Michal Volejnik CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Matteo Fontana ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Gilian Oriet SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 Andy Sutz SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 47 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:15:23 09:17:08 00:52:13 05:01:50 03:16:20 9
2 41 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:17:44 09:23:37 01:01:06 05:02:53 03:08:45 15
3 59 Beth Gerdes USA 09:28:49 09:52:53 01:03:47 05:14:44 03:05:18 71
4 58 Mareen Hufe GER 09:31:58 09:37:04 01:01:55 05:01:21 03:23:41 41
5 52 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:33:22 09:58:47 01:00:48 05:14:33 03:13:01 86
6 57 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:36:13 09:50:30 00:58:16 05:01:45 03:31:12 64
7 50 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:38:33 09:52:00 01:03:34 05:14:09 03:15:50 68
8 51 Mariana Andrade BRA 09:53:35 10:22:26 01:02:21 05:11:06 03:35:08 141
9 48 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:15:47 10:29:03 01:12:33 05:25:09 03:33:04 (155)
10 54 Nicole Woysch GER 10:17:02 10:41:26 01:00:18 05:24:35 03:47:09 (162)
11 60 Alena Stevens SVK 10:20:12 10:34:40 01:02:59 05:38:27 03:33:46 (159)
12 49 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:30:16 10:43:49 01:05:03 05:31:54 03:48:18 (165)

KPR Situation

Men

A few of the men are already safe for a July Kona slot:

  • Ronnie Schildknecht (5.550)
  • Matt Trautmann (7.195)
There are a few others that still need a few more points:
  • Miquel Blanchard Tinto: 3.700 at 3+1 (to improve he needs to score more than 960 points, i.e. 3rd or better)
  • Michael Raelert (3.000, he races Zürich as his 2015 IM race, a 4th or better should be enough for him)
A lot of athletes have to place in the Top3 or better for a slot – they probably avoided the deep field in Frankfurt and hope for better chances in Zürich:
  • Mike Aigroz (2.825)
  • Jan Van Berkel (2.600)
  • David Plese (2.285)
  • Alessandro Degasperi (2.000)
  • Mauro Baertsch (1.905)
  • Alberto Casadei (1.791)
Most of these can add another IM to their score or will only loose a few points.

Women

Mary Beth Ellis already has enough points for a slot, but she still needs to finish an Ironman (but will be racing for a good result as well).

In addition to her, there are athletes that need to place well to score the points they still need for a July slot (projected cutoff at 5.100 points). Most of them have already raced a lot, so in addition to the points they have at this point, I also show the “base” points they have before adding a good Zürich result to their score:

  • Corinne Abraham (4.725, same base; needs a 7th or better, but was DNS in Austria and it’s not clear if she’ll be racing)
  • Mareen Hufe (4.490, base 3.975; needs 3rd or better)
  • Beth Gerdes (4.515, base 3.795; needs 2nd or better)
  • Dimitry-Lee Duke (3.945, base 3.625; needs 2nd or better)
Among the other athletes, Eimear Mullan is the one with most points, but with 2.000 points she is already too far back for even a theoretical chance to qualify.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Ronnie Schildknecht has won this race seven times in a row, last year he was forced to race in Frankfurt in order to get more points for his Kona qualifying. This year, he is already safe after a 3rd place in Texas and can go back to his home race. He is joined by a number of strong athletes that are looking for more Kona points or a just a decent Ironman race:

  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 43% (1-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 17% (5-1)
  • Alessandro Degasperi: 15% (6-1)
  • David Plese: 8% (12-1)
  • Miquel Blanchart Tinto: 6% (16-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 4% (23-1)
  • Michael Raelert: 4% (24-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 50% (1-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 22% (4-1)
  • Beth Gerdes: 13% (7-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 9% (11-1)
  • Eimear Mullan: 3% (28-1)
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