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Ironman Hawaii 2016 – Male Pro Predictions

This is an excerpt of the data in my 2016 Kona Rating Report. (Find out more in this info post, you can download the report here).

Male Race Participants

Here are my predictions for the male Kona field.

One important disclaimer: This is a statistical analysis, but “past performance is not an indicator of future performance” – at least not down to the last few important seconds or minute or two. The results for an “experiment of one” (such as the Kona 2016 race) are usually different to averages: People have a great day or a crappy one, some weird things may happen (such as a mechanical or a penalty) or athletes may decide to “go for it” and blow up on the run. So my data is just an indication of what may happen and the race still has to be raced. In addition, the focus shouldn’t be on absolute times but on the comparison between different athletes – e.g. not that my expected swim time for Frodo is exactly 49:56 (the actual time can be influcenced by a lot of factors) but that he should be about three and a half minutes faster than Sebi. Also the data shows how close the racing in Kona is expected to be – there are less ten minutes between for example 8th seeded Andi Boecherer and 33rd seeded Fabio Carvalho. Ten minutes is easily the difference between a good day and a bad day. At least for me, the data and predictions make it easier during the race to spot things that are different from what’s normal for each of the athletes and make following the coverage more interesting.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Rating Swim Bike Run
1 1 Jan Frodeno GER 08:09:06 08:07:15 00:49:56 04:26:24 02:47:46
2 2 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:17:57 08:12:23 00:53:33 04:22:35 02:56:50
3 9 Andreas Raelert GER 08:18:26 08:22:24 00:51:59 04:30:51 02:50:36
4 3 Brent McMahon CAN 08:20:51 08:12:59 00:51:20 04:29:46 02:54:46
5 4 Andy Potts USA 08:21:54 08:23:08 00:50:18 04:34:03 02:52:34
6 8 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:22:11 08:36:59 00:51:15 04:30:40 02:55:16
7 20 Patrick Lange GER 08:22:25 08:22:32 00:52:26 04:37:02 02:47:57
8 16 Andi Boecherer GER 08:25:29 08:26:08 00:51:03 04:25:59 03:03:27
9 6 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:26:15 08:22:51 00:51:42 04:28:46 03:00:48
10 12 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:26:19 08:22:37 00:51:31 04:29:28 03:00:20
11 10 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:26:49 08:35:36 00:52:09 04:31:45 02:57:55
12 31 Timo Bracht GER 08:27:20 08:24:07 00:53:07 04:34:51 02:54:22
13 18 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:27:57 08:32:30 00:53:47 04:35:05 02:54:05
14 5 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:28:17 08:28:55 00:51:18 04:37:26 02:54:32
15 39 Will Clarke GBR 08:28:56 08:34:13 00:53:14 04:42:20 02:48:22
16 44 Ivan Rana ESP 08:29:27 08:25:23 00:51:25 04:43:17 02:49:44
17 29 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:30:12 08:34:07 00:51:59 04:28:58 03:04:14
18 11 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:30:26 08:48:31 00:50:22 04:35:36 02:59:28
19 19 David Dellow AUS 08:30:45 08:25:20 00:50:56 04:38:07 02:56:42
20 27 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:30:47 08:26:01 00:56:20 04:37:43 02:51:44
21 14 Boris Stein GER 08:31:03 08:29:44 00:57:38 04:33:01 02:55:24
22 33 Jesse Thomas USA 08:31:32 08:32:00 00:55:07 04:37:37 02:53:48
23 40 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:31:32 08:27:26 00:56:00 04:36:03 02:54:29
24 32 David McNamee GBR 08:31:33 08:26:14 00:51:40 04:44:52 02:50:01
25 46 Joe Skipper GBR 08:31:42 08:35:40 00:57:57 04:33:30 02:55:15
26 59 Callum Millward NZL 08:32:02 08:31:20 00:52:13 04:40:05 02:54:44
27 24 James Cunnama ZAF 08:32:55 08:33:58 00:53:13 04:37:48 02:56:54
28 37 Michael Weiss AUT 08:33:06 08:32:02 00:58:40 04:28:45 03:00:41
29 21 Ben Hoffman USA 08:33:35 08:33:32 00:52:06 04:33:53 03:02:36
30 51 Jordan Rapp USA 08:34:17 08:28:38 00:56:12 04:34:23 02:58:43
31 7 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:34:22 08:31:14 01:00:11 04:35:12 02:53:59
32 15 Tim Don GBR 08:34:32 08:27:38 00:51:42 04:40:01 02:57:48
33 53 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:35:07 08:50:15 00:52:15 04:37:27 03:00:25
34 26 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:36:14 08:33:13 00:51:43 04:39:02 03:00:29
35 25 Kevin Collington USA 08:36:40 08:39:16 00:52:20 04:42:18 02:57:02
36 22 Marko Albert EST 08:37:21 08:34:34 00:50:28 04:38:30 03:03:24
37 41 Paul Matthews AUS 08:37:45 08:31:16 00:50:57 04:39:49 03:01:58
38 28 Stefan Schmid GER 08:37:51 08:37:07 00:56:40 04:38:00 02:58:11
39 23 Tim Reed AUS 08:38:34 08:36:15 00:52:06 04:37:34 03:03:54
40 35 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:38:36 08:34:13 00:55:30 04:45:12 02:52:54
41 36 Ruedi Wild SUI 08:39:06 08:41:57 00:54:14 04:46:02 02:53:50
42 54 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:39:45 08:35:50 00:50:42 04:45:39 02:58:23
43 49 Christian Kramer GER 08:40:21 08:37:27 00:51:15 04:39:44 03:04:22
44 48 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:40:54 08:40:16 00:51:20 04:35:31 03:09:03
45 38 Pedro Gomes POR 08:41:23 08:39:41 00:55:33 04:44:31 02:56:19
46 17 Matthew Russell USA 08:42:34 08:51:18 01:01:45 04:38:51 02:56:58
47 42 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:44:48 08:46:51 00:57:58 04:38:40 03:03:09
48 34 David Plese SLO 08:44:55 08:41:10 00:56:38 04:43:57 02:59:20
49 56 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:45:30 08:44:48 00:56:50 04:40:57 03:02:44
50 47 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:45:50 08:38:31 00:53:26 04:39:21 03:08:03
51 57 Per Bittner GER 08:46:00 08:42:03 00:53:35 04:42:44 03:04:41
52 58 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:46:22 08:41:56 00:55:11 04:48:46 02:57:24
53 55 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:49:20 08:45:24 00:53:03 04:41:00 03:10:17
54 50 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:49:21 08:45:32 00:58:18 04:44:17 03:01:46
55 52 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:52:20 08:49:16 00:51:07 04:50:03 03:06:11
56 30 Markus Thomschke GER 08:53:42 08:55:13 00:57:40 04:39:39 03:11:23
57 45 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:54:40 08:57:11 00:54:10 04:44:55 03:10:34
58 43 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:55:03 08:56:38 00:58:14 04:50:08 03:01:41

Heatmap

Here is another way of looking at the data in the table: Instead of showing predicted times I have converted them into zero to five starts for each of the legs and overall and showing them as a “heat map”. A darker red corresponds to more stars, white is equal to no stars.

MenPoints

Kona Trivia Questions

Here’s a few tricky trivia questions about Kona, this year’s field and some earlier races.

  1. Who are the oldest and youngest athlete’s in this year’s Pro field?
  2. What’s the total number of Kona wins in the male and female field?
  3. Which nation has the most Kona Pros?
  4. Who won Kona (male and female) the last year that an American female was on podium?

I’ve discussed these questions with my friend Tawnee Prazak on an upcoming Endurance Planet episode looking ahead to Kona. Some more questions we didn’t have time for:

  1. Who finished in 10th and 11th place last year (male and female)?
  2. Which Pros will start Kona without a previous Ironman-distance finish?
  3. When was the last time when all Top3 (male or female) came from the same country?

All answers can be found with the information in my Kona Rating Report!

Ironman Chattanooga 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year’s race was much slower than in the past (adjustment of 5:55, leading to a new course rating of 11:54), mainly because the run was really hard this year – probably a result of the heat on race day.

Male Race Results

After IM Austria in June, Marino won another Ironman race – if my data is correct it was his 16th win in an Ironman. He continues to be one of the best Ironman athletes, in addition to being a fast bike rider he is also able to follow that up with a strong run – his 2:55 was the second fastest of the day and one of only three sub-3 runs. After a broken elbow forced him out of IM Texas (and any decent chance of qualifying for Kona), Jeff Symonds was back to racing, and the fastest marathon of the day allowed him to run into second place. Third place went to Matthew Russell in his fifth IM-distance race of the year – and he’s also on the Kona startlist. After a few sub-par races Matt Hanson claimed 4th, Justin Daerr finished in 5th place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:45:08 04:27:28 02:55:26 08:12:22 -01:01 US$ 20000
2 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:45:10 04:39:18 02:50:13 08:19:27 -07:28 US$ 10000
3 Matthew Russell USA 00:45:15 04:31:04 03:04:06 08:24:53 -15:37 US$ 6500
4 Matt Hanson USA 00:45:06 04:39:22 02:57:07 08:25:36 -08:17 US$ 4000
5 Justin Daerr USA 00:45:11 04:37:55 03:01:54 08:29:47 -09:31 US$ 3000
6 Esben Hovgaard DEN 00:45:15 04:39:09 03:15:50 08:44:55 00:04 US$ 2000
7 Jozsef Major HUN 00:50:30 04:48:21 03:01:17 08:45:44 -03:56 US$ 1500
8 Eric Limkemann USA 00:41:25 04:35:15 03:27:38 08:49:30 14:55 US$ 1250
9 Chad Holderbaum USA 00:45:17 04:41:00 03:22:46 08:54:24 -07:09 US$ 1000
10 Clint Kimmins AUS 00:45:07 04:42:38 03:28:41 09:01:36 n/a US$ 750
11 Adam Otstot USA 00:45:19 04:58:22 03:17:29 09:06:32 15:21
12 Colin Laughery USA 00:47:26 04:54:34 03:26:46 09:15:44 04:53
13 James Lubinski USA 00:57:08 04:55:42 03:18:44 09:17:04 00:20
14 Patrick Schuster USA 00:55:39 04:51:40 03:33:57 09:26:25 -04:18
15 Matt Shanks USA 00:49:26 05:06:02 03:37:12 09:38:35 -01:04
16 Dusty Spiller CAN 00:51:48 05:15:41 03:27:50 09:40:35 n/a
17 Peter Kotland CZE 00:49:28 05:05:54 03:50:30 09:52:45 09:49
18 Ivan Dominguez USA 00:47:21 05:04:03 04:06:14 10:04:36 n/a
Viktor Zyemtsev UKR 00:45:13 04:39:29 DNF
Barrett Brandon USA 00:41:20 04:48:20 DNF
Mario De Elias ARG 00:45:14 04:46:06 DNF
Raymond Botelho USA 00:45:21 05:00:18 DNF
Blake Becker USA 00:46:13 04:59:48 DNF
Brent Mcburney USA 00:49:24 05:10:42 DNF
Dantley Young USA 00:55:53 05:17:07 DNF

Ironman Mallorca 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

IM Mallorca saw pretty “normal” conditions this year, the adjustment of 7:05 is in line with the course rating of 6:03.

Female race winner Jocelyn McCauley posted new overall and run course records, while Tineke Van den Berg had the first female sub-5 bike ride on the Mallorca bike course.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 00:48:56 04:36:15 02:55:42 08:26:09 -22:21 US$ 10000
2 Markus Fachbach GER 00:52:41 04:38:00 02:56:20 08:31:51 01:27 US$ 5000
3 Gustavo Rodriguez ESP 00:53:54 04:45:13 02:48:02 08:32:32 -35:45 US$ 3250
4 Marcel Zamora ESP 00:52:47 04:41:28 03:00:11 08:39:29 05:22 US$ 2500
5 Michael Ruenz GER 00:57:51 04:42:34 02:53:48 08:39:37 -01:19 US$ 1750
6 Joan Nadal Clar ESP 00:57:09 04:41:20 02:55:06 08:40:25 n/a US$ 1250
7 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 00:52:58 04:43:42 03:00:43 08:43:18 -13:15 US$ 750
8 Roman Deisenhofer GER 00:52:30 04:44:20 03:04:58 08:47:28 00:07 US$ 500
9 Bart Borghs BEL 01:01:31 04:51:27 02:50:03 08:48:45 -07:56
10 Darby Thomas FIN 00:59:06 04:41:33 03:04:31 08:50:59 06:41
11 Konstantin Bachor GER 00:52:31 04:38:52 03:14:32 08:51:12 23:24
12 Guillaume Jeannin FRA 00:53:44 04:46:15 03:10:43 08:55:46 -24:44
13 Thomas Bosch GER 00:57:56 04:47:43 03:04:58 08:56:10 -22:30
14 Mikita Hryhoryeu POL 00:53:07 04:57:31 03:03:35 08:59:56 02:30
15 Erik Holmberg SWE 00:53:42 04:52:14 03:10:25 09:00:58 n/a
16 Horst Reichel GER 00:48:59 04:45:48 03:22:05 09:01:40 13:37
17 Herve Banti MCO 00:52:44 04:44:08 03:37:14 09:19:20 17:12
18 Alfred Rahm GER 01:03:34 04:56:20 03:14:50 09:23:32 -14:08
19 Tomas Swift-Metcalfe GBR 01:01:38 04:56:44 03:24:59 09:31:58 n/a
20 Vincent Depuiset FRA 01:07:18 05:03:27 03:16:55 09:34:45 -04:44
21 Jan Hron CZE 01:01:15 05:16:25 03:10:59 09:36:06 -05:43
22 Rafael Espinar Puig ESP 01:08:17 05:18:12 03:13:17 09:49:44 14:19
23 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 01:06:20 05:15:57 03:20:00 09:50:22 -11:17
24 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 00:57:43 05:03:21 03:47:58 09:54:37 38:42
25 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP 01:01:42 05:12:35 03:34:58 09:55:49 -27:26
26 Chris Walker GBR 00:53:40 05:03:54 03:50:53 09:56:07 n/a
27 Alen Kralj SVN 00:58:50 05:15:57 03:33:26 09:56:31 n/a
28 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:11:51 05:47:45 04:10:41 11:18:53 -27:10
Matic Modic SLO 00:56:42 04:45:17 DNF
Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:53:46 05:02:19 DNF
Tomas Mika CZE 00:53:11 05:03:39 DNF
Francisco Fernandez Cortes ESP 00:52:35 DNF
Michael Van Cleven BEL 00:52:50 DNF
Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 00:57:53 DNF
Simon Brierley SEY 00:57:58 DNF
Johan Kaerner SWE 00:58:59 DNF
Hannes Bonami BEL 01:01:31 DNF

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:56:02 05:06:10 03:03:50 09:11:55 -39:38 US$ 10000
2 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 00:58:59 05:06:06 03:13:19 09:23:40 -1:07:27 US$ 5000
3 Tineke Van den Berg NED 01:05:20 04:53:59 03:18:57 09:24:27 -32:20 US$ 3250
4 Sara Svensk SWE 01:00:35 05:13:53 03:09:00 09:28:58 n/a US$ 2500
5 Diane Luethi SUI 00:55:59 05:12:47 03:24:41 09:39:58 -18:01 US$ 1750
6 Natascha Schmitt GER 00:55:59 05:08:43 03:41:54 09:52:42 13:23 US$ 1250
7 Petra Krejcova CZE 01:00:29 05:28:32 03:25:45 10:00:17 02:02 US$ 750
8 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 00:59:32 05:31:52 03:23:19 10:01:06 -08:59 US$ 500
9 Deborah Van Gossum BEL 00:55:59 05:40:31 03:59:41 10:42:42 -19:00
Lauren Parker AUS 00:53:31 05:31:59 DNF
Nicole Woysch GER 01:00:23 05:25:10 DNF
Jessica Ahlund SWE 00:59:33 05:41:31 DNF
Emma Bilham SUI 00:55:23 DNF

Announcing the 2016 Kona Rating Report

KPRTitle

For the 2016 Ironman World Championships in Kona I have released a 120+-page Rating Report with tons of information:

  • Detailed results and analysis of last year’s race
  • Information about the Kona course, top Kona finishers and the current course records
  • The Kona 2016 start list and my predictions and odds for the Pro athletes
  • How the race may unfold and what to watch for when the race is going on
  • Details about each Pro including their input and a lot of photos they have supplied

The Report is available for free, but it would be great if you can support my work before Kona and during the year by donating an amount of your choice, for example the list price of a regular tri magazine (around 7$).

The Kona Rating Report is the ideal information to have when following the Ironman Kona coverage!

Get The Kona Report

Here’s what others have said about the Report:

  • IMTalkLogo
    “Interview: We get Thorsten ‘The Geek’ from TriRating.com on the show again. We talk about Kona and his amazing 2016 Kona Rating Report” in Episode 535 of the IMTalk podcast.
  • LavaLogo
    “The highly-detailed document, complete with graphical representations of the data Radde has collected, brings Moneyball to multisport.” (Lava Magazine in their post about the Report)
  • The Report received a lot of love on Social Media .. just a few of the tweets:
    SusanTweet
    MarcoTweetBevanTweetLisaTweetTimTweetTawneeTweetSarahTweetRobTweetTJTweetCarolineTweetYvonneTweetAstridTweet

Get The Kona Report

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