Thorsten

Liz Lyles Looking for Her Next Win

May 29, 2016

American Professional Liz Lyles is one of the favorites going into the Regional Championships at IM Brasil on May 29th. She faces strong competition, mainly by last year’s winner Ariane Monticelli, IM France winner Caitlin Snow and two fast German Pros, Mareen Hufe (one of the best bikers in female triathlon) and Kristin Möller (one of the best runners). I’ve had the chance to chat with Liz about the challenges she faces, her last season and the expectations for this year.

Juggling Family and Training

Liz discovered triathlon in 2001, but didn’t turn Pro until August 2012 – after becoming a mother to son Luke (born 2008) and daughter Emma (born 2010). She has to squeeze her training between taking care of the children. When we talked, she asked to start at 9:15am (“because I drop my kids at the bus at 9:10”) – and she had a long run scheduled afterwards.

“Yesterday I had a long swim and a bike. I got home at 3:40 and had to be at the bus stop at 3:45. So I just grabbed my keys and went into the car still in my bike clothes to get the kids. When we got home all I wanted to do is to shower and lay down. Instead I had to do dinner, do the laundry, get groceries and so on. Before a big training block I try to warn everybody because I can get a little impatient by 5 o’clock at night.

“This weekend I’m going to do a Century Ride .. that helps because they provide nutrition, there’ll be other cyclists on the road and I don’t have to watch for traffic on my own. We’ll bring our travel trailer. The kids love camping, so we go down on Friday and camp close to the start. Then on Saturday I do the century ride and a run. In the meantime [husband] Chip and the kids are fishing and having a good time. On Sunday morning I’ll have a long 20-mile run while they do some more fishing, then I’ll come back and join in. It’s a good way for a little family vacation where I can safely train.

“I love looking at rankings and results but I have four hundred other things to occupy my mind: Did my son win his baseball game? Is Emma going to score a goal in soccer? I can’t really compare myself to what other professionals are doing .. it’s a different life. But I’m stoked about having my kids and my family.”

Improving

Liz won her Pro Ironman debut race at Wisconsin 2012 with a sub-3 run. She qualified for Kona 2013 (16th place) and won IM Western Australia with a sub-9 finish. In 2014 she was second at IM Germany and finished Kona in 7th place as the top US female athlete. She started her 2015 season with a win at Wildflower over defending champion Heather Jackson in a finish chute sprint duel and a second place at the Regional Championships in Brasil.

“I won Wisconsin 2012, that was back when I didn’t know how to bike. Being a Professional was fresh and exciting and new. I bike slower, my legs felt fresh at the start of the run and I ran a 2:59:33. My times have come down in the swim and especially on the bike.

“My best IMs were not my wins but when I got second in Frankfurt and in Brasil and of course Kona when I got 7th. If I want to win one of the Regionals or podium in Kona, I have to get stronger and more comfortable towards the last 20 miles of the bike – so feeling fresher at mile 90. But also at mile 112 so I can get off the bike and straight into my pace for the run.

Liz Lyles

Photo Credit: © Kaori Photo 2016 / kaoriphoto.com / Used with permission.

“The next couple of weeks on the long rides I’ll focus to take in the nutrition. On the bike I try to carry all my nutrition and only stop for water. On the run I’m on my own and no one gives me my water bottle every couple of minutes. It’s much easier in the race with all the aid stations.”

Summer 2015

Liz lined up at IM Canada in Whistler, but she had to abandon quite early on the bike as she was hypothermic in the cold rain that surprised all the racers. Three weeks later she raced IM Mont Tremblant but had a sub-standard 7th place finish in 9:42 and a disappointing 3:24 run.

“The first half of 2015 was great, but then it all went downhill with that stupid cold weather front at IM Whistler. I felt that was my chance to pick up another IM title. I just completed 14 miles of the bike – it was freezing cold. Some guy picked me up in his truck and I later met him in Kona. He said ‘Liz, I rescued you from the side of the road in Whistler’ and I didn’t remember anything. At Wildflower I met a guy who had also been picked up and we rode in the ambulance together to the Expo area. He said he tried to talk to me and that I was blue and shaking, but I don’t even recall much of that.

“I really wanted to race and I jumped into some more Ironman training. When the race in Mont Tremblant started I felt depleted and had a pretty bad race there. And after that Kona was next. I didn’t like training for three Ironmen in a row. I’ll never try that sort of thing again. When building for an IM I really like to race half IMs to get the speed and then take it down a notch for the Ironman in terms of effort.

“My kids go on summer break. All summer I was training for an IM and it wasn’t fun for anyone in our family. This year I’m going to do Brasil and then when the summer break starts in June, I’ll spend some more time with them and don’t want to be stressed about racing. When they go back to school in August I can pick up the big training then. I’m just learning that I have to plan around when it’s going to be easier for me to train. ”

Kona 2015

In Kona Liz finished 14th with a solid race, but that result was overshadowed by a number of great performances such as by the top US finishers Heather Jackson (5th) and Sarah Piampiano (7th).

“I was happy with the swim – I was in the second pack and we had put three to five minutes to the next group. But the Top 10 swimmers more or less rode together while the athletes around me just fell away: Heather Wurtele got her mechanical, Julia Gajer and Rinnie had bad days. The year before I had biked with Heather, Rinnie and Julia in a legal group until about the climb to Hawi where it broke up. I was riding in a group, I felt great, super comfortable pace. This year I don’t know where everybody went, and I was on my own for the whole bike ride. I was just alone pushing. When I was passed by Heather Jackson and Asa Lundstrom after the turnaround at Hawi I didn’t have any energy to go with them. Maybe I lost some speed just training for Ironman. With my fitness I also should have been able to run faster. It was a rough and lonely day.”

2016 Season

Liz approaches the 2016 season a bit differently: She raced a number of 70.3s at the start of season. That worked well for her, she defended her Wildflower title. Now she is looking towards the South American Regional Championship in Brazil at the end of May.

“Looking at a 12 week training block here in Reno it’s hard to stay motivated because I’m always training alone. So this year I’m racing to keep my interest level high. It’s been fun so far – I love getting a bit of rest before the races and then having a couple of easy days afterwards. Panama was just to get out and get some fitness, I knew I wasn’t going to be ready just coming off the trainer. It was pretty hot and humid. My mom and I had a great time to visit the sights. It was a good way to get out but I knew I had a lot of work to do.

“The focus is on Brasil. The weekend before Wildflower I had a hard 20 mile run. Last year at Wildflower it was ‘bike as hard as you can who cares what happens’. I usually like to start the run being down a small gap, to be able to see the front and to pace myself off that. I prefer chasing, but not the three minutes I had last year, maybe one minute. That last downhill run mile is a steep downhill and [defending champion] Heather [Jackson] and I ran it at an all out sprint. This year I pretty much knew I had it so I cruised it down. ‘Okay, Brasil is next so don’t kill your knee.’

“My mom is coming back to Brasil with me this year – we love that place. Last year I had a terrible swim. I got lost and could have been two minute faster on the swim. Around mile 80 the legitimate ten-men-draft packs started to move through. I’m not willing to take a risk [to get a penalty] so I sit up, let them pass and join back in when I’m twelve meters back. It sucks, but it’s what you have to do. I pushed the bike pretty hard last year, maybe too hard so I hope I can run a bit quicker. Coming back to a course I always do better the second time I do it.”

I hope the women’s race in Florianopolis will be as exciting and close as last year when there were six different athletes in the lead on the run. I’m sure Liz will once again be among those that will play an important role. To secure a Kona slot a Top 5 finish should be enough for her, but she has her sights a bit higher: Only winning would be better than last year’s second place. I hope she’ll have a great day of racing on May 29th!

Ironman Lanzarote 2016 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

As has to be expected by the tough course in Lanzarote, the race was quite slow. An adjustment of -23:21 is easily 40 minutes slower than Austria, Roth, Copenhagen or Barcelona, mainly because of the hard bike course (adjustment of -20:07). This year’s edition was maybe two or three minutes slower (again mainly because of the bike) than what is “normal” for IM Lanzarote.

Male Race Results

Jan Frodeno started the race well: He had the fastest swim of the day but then lost roughly two minutes in T1 in order to fix some issue with his helmet. (He also had some issues with the same or very similar helmet in Frankfurt.) While Johann Ackermann was leading the bike, a lot of good runners were within minutes. After T2, Jan was quickly back in the lead, but Jesse Thomas had paced the swim and bike well, had the best run of the day, was able to overtake Jan and continue his perfect IM record by winning IM Lanzarote. Jan validated his Kona slot with a solid second place finish while David McNamee had to fight hard for the third spot on the podium.

Christopher Baird had the best relative race of the day – the best bike split and a 2:47 run was more than an hour quicker than expected and good for fourth. Ivan Rana finished fifth while Timo Bracht couldn’t quite find the run speed to finish better than sixth.

Jesse, Jan and David are now safe for a July Kona slot, while Ivan is “on the bubble”. Timo and the rest of the finishers still need more points.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Jesse Thomas	USA	00:50:55	04:58:33	02:46:56	08:42:33	-04:26	US$ 5000
2	Jan Frodeno	GER	00:46:52	04:58:18	02:50:03	08:44:38	14:35	US$ 2750
3	David McNamee	GBR	00:47:03	05:01:39	02:51:51	08:46:36	-03:19	US$ 1750
4	Christopher Baird	USA	00:55:11	04:57:27	02:47:54	08:48:35	-1:01:14	US$ 1250
5	Ivan Rana	ESP	00:47:04	05:02:34	02:54:35	08:50:09	02:19	US$ 1000
6	Timo Bracht	GER	00:50:55	04:58:35	02:56:59	08:52:47	06:56	US$ 750
7	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	ESP	00:50:57	05:07:15	02:54:35	08:58:21	-02:47
8	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	00:52:41	04:59:05	03:03:51	09:02:33	-30:52
9	Diego Van Looy	BEL	01:04:24	05:05:35	02:52:10	09:11:22	n/a
10	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	00:52:44	05:10:24	03:03:38	09:13:56	02:04
11	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	00:50:45	05:12:10	03:10:44	09:20:12	-02:18
12	Nicholas Ward Munoz	GBR	00:54:37	05:20:18	02:59:35	09:22:09	02:58
13	Marcel Bischof	GER	00:56:47	05:15:36	03:06:54	09:26:56	-09:25
14	Marcus Hultgren	SWE	00:58:26	05:14:59	03:08:58	09:29:55	-24:13
15	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	00:52:46	05:27:18	03:04:23	09:31:39	05:54
16	Esben Hovgaard	DEN	00:54:39	05:13:36	03:20:24	09:35:07	25:51
17	Till Schramm	GER	00:56:24	05:23:04	03:09:20	09:35:52	-21:41
18	Mikita Hryhoryeu	POL	00:52:12	05:25:40	03:08:41	09:35:56	14:22
19	Michael Louys	BEL	01:03:10	05:15:49	03:17:48	09:45:12	-14:06
20	Frederic Garcia	FRA	00:56:35	05:31:39	03:12:58	09:49:23	n/a
21	Armin Atzlinger	AUT	00:57:01	05:39:03	03:06:48	09:53:59	-18:06
22	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	00:58:28	05:23:41	03:41:35	10:10:43	15:55
23	Gilian Oriet	SUI	00:57:22	05:30:54	03:41:13	10:18:12	03:54
24	Graeme Stewart	GBR	00:55:41	05:55:59	03:19:17	10:19:48	56:33
25	Rob Bobbaers	BEL	01:00:44	05:29:01	03:47:56	10:26:57	n/a
26	John Manuel Galindo Rooney	ESP	00:50:58	06:04:56	03:29:13	10:33:32	34:00
27	Enric Gussinyer	ESP	00:52:21	05:52:03	03:41:26	10:35:21	42:32
	Johann Ackermann	GER	00:47:00	04:59:17		DNF
	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	00:46:57	05:24:03		DNF
	Carlos Lopez Diaz	ESP	00:46:58	05:29:47		DNF
	Craig Twigg	GBR	00:52:50	05:34:41		DNF
	Jim Thijs	BEL	00:54:41	06:06:29		DNF

Female Race Results

For a long time, Lucy Charles was leading the field in her Pro IM debut. She swam with the men’s lead group, her 47:11 is a new swim course record. She maintained the lead on the bike, but defending champion Diana Riesler was closing the gap. But the fastest bike of the day was posted by Tine Holst who also stormed to the lead on the run. Towards the end Alexandra Tondeur was getting closer with the best run of the day, but Tine won her first Ironman race in front of Alexandra. Lucy Charles managed to finish third, she overtook Diana Riesler who was cramping towards the end and finished fourth. Caroline Livesey finished fifth. Alyssa Godesky has recovered from her crash in Wanaka to finish the day with a good 3:21 marathon and sixth place.

With Lanzarote only Tine managed to score enough points to be safe for a Kona slot. Alexandra Tondeur is “on the bubble”, while the others will need to race again and score more points.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Tine Holst	DEN	01:01:15	05:34:25	03:19:48	10:02:35	-23:37	US$ 5000
2	Alexandra Tondeur	BEL	01:03:00	05:42:36	03:10:26	10:04:53	-03:29	US$ 2750
3	Lucy Charles	GBR	00:47:11	05:48:36	03:27:40	10:10:13	n/a	US$ 1750
4	Diana Riesler	GER	00:56:51	05:40:19	03:40:02	10:24:52	31:24	US$ 1250
5	Caroline Livesey	GBR	00:58:53	05:45:22	03:34:03	10:28:32	06:51	US$ 1000
6	Alyssa Godesky	USA	01:00:22	06:01:51	03:21:52	10:32:40	-12:06	US$ 750
7	Anne Jensen	DEN	01:03:28	05:52:17	03:40:25	10:44:16	-08:07
	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	00:54:48	05:49:31		DNF
	Nicole Woysch	GER	01:03:30	06:36:28		DNF

Ironman Brasil (May 29th) – Predictions

February 26, 2017

IMBRA_Logo Update May 28th: After the Pro briefing and thanks to a tweet by Witsup, we know that a few females won’t be racing, namely Kirsty Jahn, Mackenzie Madison, Molly Roohi, Tine Holst and Alexandra Moura. (I haven’t seen similar information for the men.)

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Olaf Sabatschus (GER)	08:50:37	Joanna Zeiger (USA)	09:31:43
2006	Oscar Galindez (ARG)	08:15:19	Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN)	09:20:47
2007	Oscar Galindez (ARG)	08:21:09	Nina Kraft (GER)	09:12:40
2008	Eduardo Sturla (ARG)	08:28:24	Fernanda Keller (BRA)	09:42:50
2009	Eduardo Sturla (ARG)	08:13:39	Dede Griesbauer (USA)	09:10:15
2010	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	08:07:38	Tereza Macel (CZE)	09:19:12
2011	Eduardo Sturla (ARG)	08:13:12	Amy Marsh (USA)	09:07:49
2012	Ezequiel Morales (ARG)	08:22:40	Sofie Goos (BEL)	09:17:42
2013	Timothy O’Donnell (USA)	08:01:32	Amanda Stevens (USA)	09:05:53
2014	Igor Amorelli (BRA)	08:07:54	Sara Gross (CAN)	08:56:35
2015	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	07:53:44	Ariane Monticeli (BRA)	08:59:08

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	00:48:31	04:11:23	02:49:38	07:53:44
2	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	00:47:03	04:19:26	02:45:52	07:55:56
3	Brent McMahon	CAN	00:47:02	04:19:01	02:47:08	07:56:55

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	01:00:18	04:57:59	02:56:28	08:59:08
2	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	00:57:49	04:54:31	03:03:04	09:00:31
3	Amanda Stevens	USA	00:51:15	04:57:32	03:05:47	09:01:27

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:53:44	Marino Vanhoenacker	2015-05-31
Swim	overall	00:42:26	Luke McKenzie	2010-05-30
Bike	overall	04:11:23	Marino Vanhoenacker	2015-05-31
Run	overall	02:44:31	Matt Trautman	2015-05-31
Total	female	08:56:35	Sara Gross	2014-05-25
Swim	female	00:45:48	Dede Griesbauer	2010-05-30
Bike	female	04:46:38	Jessie Donavan	2014-05-25
Run	female	02:56:28	Ariane Monticeli	2015-05-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 18:12.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	17:58	01:59	04:22	02:24	37	17:58	01:59	04:22	02:24
2007	14:36	-00:17	06:48	02:59	40	16:17	00:51	05:35	02:41
2008	09:37	-06:37	11:32	01:25	45	14:04	-01:38	07:34	02:16
2009	17:43	-00:30	09:27	04:57	39	14:59	-01:21	08:02	02:56
2010	21:43	04:13	09:54	01:16	42	16:20	-00:14	08:25	02:36
2011	20:54	n/a	n/a	n/a	29	17:05	-00:14	08:25	02:36
2012	16:21	02:26	21:44	-05:16	32	16:59	00:12	10:38	01:17
2013	16:51	02:40	16:25	03:59	41 of 45	16:58	00:33	11:27	01:41
2014	23:43	00:24	22:05	05:36	34 of 40	17:43	00:32	12:47	02:10
2015	22:37	-00:06	17:43	04:00	33 of 47	18:12	00:28	13:20	02:22

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil is a P-4000 race and offers automatic qualifier slots for the winners. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	3	Brent McMahon	CAN	08:01:58	08:16:31	00:46:38	04:21:30	02:48:50	100% +0% -0% (4)	3
2	30	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	08:13:05	08:27:11	00:51:27	04:24:59	02:51:39	70% +1% -29% (26)	17
3	31	Stefan Schmid	GER	08:13:44	08:37:19	00:51:39	04:23:08	02:53:57	44% +56% -0% (11)	43
4	10	Tim Don	GBR	08:18:48	08:37:18	00:47:29	04:32:10	02:54:09	100% +0% -0% (2)	(43)
5	28	Paul Matthews	AUS	08:21:40	08:43:42	00:46:00	04:26:40	03:04:00	17% +0% -83% (8)	65
6	14	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:22:26	08:44:04	00:52:45	04:25:59	02:58:42	62% +8% -30% (41)	68
7	4	Guilherme Manocchio	BRA	08:23:00	08:45:40	00:49:21	04:30:04	02:58:34	61% +35% -4% (10)	74
8	15	Daniel Fontana	ITA	08:24:15	08:46:08	00:48:35	04:31:59	02:58:40	61% +0% -39% (10)	(76)
9	5	Mike Aigroz	SUI	08:24:24	08:45:52	00:47:49	04:31:24	03:00:11	58% +4% -38% (20)	75
10	23	Kevin Collington	USA	08:24:59	08:53:07	00:49:14	04:35:39	02:55:06	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(96)
11	29	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:25:50	08:46:53	00:50:46	04:34:17	02:55:48	59% +6% -35% (21)	77
12	7	Anton Blokhin	UKR	08:29:50	08:52:20	00:48:09	04:35:01	03:01:40	66% +3% -31% (18)	95
13	6	Frank Silvestrin	BRA	08:31:35	09:03:31	00:47:59	04:36:43	03:01:54	46% +43% -11% (6)	133
14	22	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:33:45	08:58:44	00:47:08	04:37:36	03:04:01	26% +32% -42% (14)	115
15	8	Mario De Elias	ARG	08:36:30	09:04:46	00:50:58	04:44:21	02:56:11	49% +25% -26% (5)	145
16	27	Nick Baldwin	SEY	08:40:35	09:02:44	00:51:41	04:36:55	03:06:59	55% +0% -45% (15)	129
17	9	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	08:41:26	09:05:16	00:48:31	04:53:48	02:54:07	81% +0% -19% (9)	149
18	32	Will Clarke	GBR	08:45:46	09:15:03	00:49:34	04:34:31	03:16:41	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(186)
19	26	Michael Davidson	ZAF	08:52:12	09:13:33	00:55:57	04:45:00	03:06:15	54% +0% -46% (4)	180
20	20	Felipe De Oliveira Manente	BRA	08:56:42	09:31:50	00:52:06	04:45:37	03:13:59	23% +9% -68% (7)	228
21	13	Brent Mcburney	USA	09:17:56	10:04:49	00:57:34	04:55:46	03:19:36	22% +41% -38% (4)	(279)
22	19	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	09:18:00	10:10:53	00:46:47	05:00:31	03:25:42	3% +0% -97% (8)	(285)
	11	Alexandre Aguiar Moura	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (2)	(n/a)
	16	Danilo Melo	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	17	Diego Serda	ARG	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	21	Fellipe Santos	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	24	Luis Henrique Ohde	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	25	Marcus Vinicius Fernandes	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Also have a look at my profile of Liz Lyles.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	64	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	09:06:45	09:27:30	00:56:07	05:00:28	03:05:10	50% +13% -37% (13)	23
2	51	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	09:10:50	09:50:18	00:59:57	05:03:05	03:02:48	42% +35% -23% (13)	66
3	62	Caitlin Snow	USA	09:15:15	09:34:56	00:55:38	05:09:36	03:05:01	64% +22% -14% (21)	41
4	75	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:15:23	09:35:34	00:59:56	04:51:04	03:19:23	82% +6% -12% (20)	42
5	71	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:15:58	09:33:47	01:02:53	05:06:45	03:01:21	79% +19% -2% (16)	39
6	72	Laurel Wassner	USA	09:22:17	09:56:35	00:53:05	05:11:25	03:12:47	60% +0% -40% (7)	81
7	66	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	09:24:56	09:56:03	01:01:20	05:12:05	03:06:31	23% +77% -0% (5)	80
8	70	~~Kirsty Jahn~~	~~CAN~~	~~09:26:12~~	~~10:03:43~~	~~00:58:57~~	~~05:12:20~~	~~03:09:55~~	~~n/a (1 IM Pro race)~~	~~(96)~~
9	53	~~Mackenzie Madison~~	~~USA~~	~~09:26:59~~	~~09:49:27~~	~~00:57:55~~	~~05:04:23~~	~~03:19:41~~	~~69% +0% -31% (11)~~	64
10	74	Lucie Reed	CZE	09:27:56	09:47:55	00:50:48	05:07:40	03:24:28	62% +0% -38% (23)	62
11	69	Karina Ottosen	DEN	09:31:05	10:03:57	00:57:38	05:05:19	03:23:09	24% +63% -13% (9)	97
12	76	Mariana Andrade	BRA	09:33:58	10:23:09	00:59:19	04:58:10	03:31:30	20% +29% -51% (10)	143
13	65	~~Erin Spitler~~	~~USA~~	~~09:35:34~~	~~10:18:46~~	~~01:05:23~~	~~05:00:57~~	~~03:24:14~~	~~21% +41% -38% (6)~~	~~129~~
14	52	Brooke Brown	CAN	09:36:13	09:57:47	01:01:55	05:08:04	03:21:14	52% +0% -48% (6)	86
15	57	~~Saleta Castro Nogueira~~	~~ESP~~	~~09:37:28~~	~~10:17:08~~	~~00:54:59~~	~~05:13:03~~	~~03:24:27~~	~~53% +47% -0% (8)~~	~~124~~
16	55	~~Vanessa Raw~~	~~GBR~~	~~09:39:18~~	~~10:11:34~~	~~00:53:21~~	~~05:06:55~~	~~03:34:03~~	~~n/a (1 IM Pro race)~~	~~(115)~~
17	77	~~Molly Roohi~~	~~USA~~	~~09:54:49~~	~~10:16:54~~	~~01:04:12~~	~~05:17:31~~	~~03:28:05~~	~~100% +0% -0% (4)~~	~~(122)~~
18	67	Helena Herrero Gomez	ESP	10:02:56	10:24:55	01:00:15	05:37:44	03:19:57	78% +0% -22% (4)	152
	61	Bruna Mahn	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

A couple of athletes on the start list (such as Chris McDonald who raced Texas) are unlikely to start, but most of the pre-race favorites are committed to race in Florianopolis. Brent McMahon has had a number of really strong results including a third place in Brasil 2015 (behind Marino Vanhoenacker and Tim O’Donnell who won’t be racing Brasil this year). Stefan Schmid ended his 2015 season with a win in Cozumel and just needs a few more KPR points to secure his slot. Ronnie Schildknecht has already raced IM South Africa (finishing 9th), he also needs a few more points if he wants to return to Kona.

Behind these three athletes there is a number of athletes that are looking for a good result and the corresponding KPR points. Paul Matthews has been struggling a bit since racing Kona 2014, he was 17th in Brasil last year followed by two DNFs. As usual Tim Don has scored a ton of points in 70.3 races, he probably just needs to finish to secure his Kona ticket. Racing in his home country, Guillermo Manocchio will try to race at the same level as when he won IM Copenhagen last summer.

Brent McMahon: 36% (2-1)
Stefan Schmid: 26% (3-1)
Ronnie Schildknecht: 14% (6-1)
Paul Matthews: 8% (12-1)
Chris McDonald: 5% (18-1)
Guilherme Manocchio: 4% (24-1)
Tim Don: 2% (55-1)

Will Clarke is moving up from the 70.3 distance. With IM Lanzarote 2015 his debut IM wasn’t a good experience, but he has taken some time to regroup and it will be interesting to see how he’ll be able to perform.

Female Race Participants

Earlier versions of the startlist had a lot of names that were also racing in Texas, now the field is taking a clearer shape. Liz Lyles (second last year) is the pre-race favorite in front of defending champion Ariane Monticelli. Caitlin Snow, Mareen Hufe and Kristin Moller are strong podium contenders.

Elizabeth Lyles: 37% (2-1)
Ariane Monticeli: 24% (3-1)
Mareen Hufe: 14% (6-1)
Caitlin Snow: 10% (9-1)
Kristin Moeller: 6% (16-1)

Ironman Texas 2016 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

The shortened bike course makes a comparison with other Texas races very hard and I won’t consider this year’s results for my ratings or for course records. Linearly scaling the bike times from 94 to 112 miles doesn’t yield valid “full-distance times” – race times that are shorter by roughly 40 minutes create a different race dynamic. Nonetheless, I have analyzed the scaled race splits in the same way as for a “valid” IM. The splits are colored accordingly and a “diff to expected” is shown to indicate on how good some times have been. Of course all this analysis has to be taken with a grain of salt, but here are a few additional observations:

The male winning time by Patrick Lange would correspond to a sub-8 time, the female winning time by Julia Gajer to a sub-9 finish.
The last minute changes to the swim course didn’t have a major influence on the swim times – a swim adjustment of -1:39 is almost exactly the Texas average of -1:27.
Lauren Brandon had the fastest swim overall. (This is the first time that a female had the fastest swim since Sweden 2013, when Jodie Swallow lead the field.)
Most reports indicate that the new bike course wasn’t quite as hard to follow as anticipated, but there were a few tricky sections and also some car traffic on the course. Andy Starykowicz’s fastest bike time would roughly correspond to a 4:04 – very fast, but “almost normal” for Andy. Looking at the whole field, the bike times were quite comparable to the times we have seen in earlier years, maybe they would have been quicker by four to five minutes than in the past.
With the shortened bike course I also expected quicker run times. Some athletes had great runs – Patrick Lange’s winning marathon of 2:40:01 would have broken Matt Hanson’s course record, and there were two sub-3 runs in the women’s field by Lisa Roberts (3rd, fastest run split of 2:59:03) and Jodie Robertson (2nd). But we’ve also seen some “explosions” on the run: In addition to Andy Starykowicz who DNF’d, Lauren Brandon just broke four hours and Matt Hanson had to walk after running himself into 3rd place – eventually finishing 23rd. The adjustment would have been similar to what we’ve seen in Texas in the last few years.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Patrick Lange	GER	00:48:57	03:39:28	02:40:01	07:13:13	n/a	US$ 30000
2	Matthew Russell	USA	00:56:41	03:31:47	02:48:14	07:21:56	-34:13	US$ 15000
3	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	00:48:59	03:39:27	02:52:53	07:25:55	-15:36	US$ 8000
4	Jeremy Jurkiewicz	FRA	00:48:51	03:39:55	02:55:07	07:28:30	-19:38	US$ 6500
5	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	00:48:43	03:44:42	02:51:53	07:30:59	-02:24	US$ 5000
6	Justin Daerr	USA	00:54:16	03:37:28	02:54:56	07:31:39	-22:18	US$ 3500
7	Chris McDonald	AUS	00:55:59	03:32:30	02:59:55	07:33:08	-23:12	US$ 2500
8	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	00:55:20	03:33:16	03:00:29	07:34:01	-41:55	US$ 2000
9	Matic Modic	SLO	00:56:48	03:40:53	02:52:18	07:35:08	-32:12	US$ 1500
10	Callum Millward	NZL	00:51:02	03:38:32	03:01:15	07:36:23	01:37	US$ 1000
11	Barrett Brandon	USA	00:48:45	03:40:02	03:06:38	07:40:37	-07:34
12	Antony Costes	FRA	00:48:55	03:39:50	03:08:56	07:42:03	-19:45
13	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:49:31	03:38:37	03:09:23	07:42:41	11:02
14	Michael Ruenz	GER	00:56:40	03:42:15	02:58:28	07:42:50	-12:14
15	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	00:56:24	03:44:02	02:59:26	07:45:31	-15:42
16	Francisco Serrano	MEX	00:53:40	03:40:18	03:07:17	07:45:46	-16:06
17	Eric Limkemann	USA	00:49:54	03:38:37	03:15:00	07:48:42	01:50
18	Samuel Huerzeler	SUI	00:54:33	03:42:19	03:10:29	07:53:56	-22:45
19	Matthew Curbeau	USA	00:56:44	03:44:06	03:08:10	07:54:32	-32:58
20	Jordan Rapp	USA	00:54:25	03:33:47	03:22:01	07:55:18	17:55
21	Jaroslav Kovacic	SLO	00:49:02	03:43:02	03:21:41	07:59:12	-06:30
22	Richie Cunningham	AUS	00:53:40	03:46:17	03:14:35	08:00:17	22:01
23	Matt Hanson	USA	00:54:24	03:40:33	03:27:58	08:07:07	20:04
24	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	00:54:27	03:33:15	03:37:56	08:11:30	18:20
25	Douglas MacLean	USA	00:56:54	03:55:57	03:14:45	08:16:04	-08:28
26	Jozsef Major	HUN	01:02:47	03:53:15	03:14:24	08:16:36	16:13
27	Patrick Jaberg	SUI	00:56:37	03:43:35	03:33:52	08:19:33	13:14
28	Patrick Schuster	USA	01:07:40	03:48:29	03:21:36	08:23:50	-19:05
29	Denis Sketako	SLO	00:56:34	03:55:54	03:28:54	08:26:09	15:05
30	Andres Darricau	Arg	00:56:27	03:52:25	03:44:58	08:39:51	01:45
31	Mike Schifferle	SUI	01:04:39	03:44:13	03:44:27	08:42:07	33:35
32	Jonathan Fecik	USA	00:56:33	03:55:45	03:50:27	08:48:40	-08:51
33	Aaron Gray	USA	00:56:31	03:55:18	04:54:59	09:53:08	n/a
34	Scott Neyedli	GBR	00:53:58	03:55:03	05:26:34	10:22:40	1:27:54
	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	00:48:51	03:24:44		DNF
	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	00:48:48	03:39:54		DNF
	Swen Sundberg	GER	00:54:31	03:34:18		DNF
	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:49:09	03:44:11		DNF
	Jonathan Shearon	USA	00:56:43	03:45:00		DNF
	Pedro Gomes	POR	00:53:55	03:49:40		DNF
	Michael Weiss	AUT	00:56:30	03:49:30		DNF
	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	00:55:23	04:04:04		DNF
	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:48:54	04:11:25		DNF
	AJ Baucco	USA	00:53:54			DNF

As the winner of the North American Regional championship Patrick Lange receives an Automatic Qualifier spot. Matt Russell and Terenzo Bozzone now have enough points to be safe for a July slot. Eneko Llanos hasn’t added too many points with his 13th place finish, but he validated his slot and is also safe now. Callum Millward is on the bubble, at 3.580 points he’s right at my projected cutoff of 3.500 points. He already has five results (his worst is 435 points), so it won’t be easy to improve his total. Jeremy Juekiewicz has 2.530 points (but only one IM and one 70.3 race), so he should be able to add some more points if he wants to qualify.

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Julia Gajer	GER	00:54:51	04:01:44	03:08:49	08:11:01	-09:39	US$ 30000
2	Jodie Robertson	USA	01:07:21	04:01:55	02:59:26	08:16:30	n/a	US$ 15000
3	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:06:52	04:06:18	02:59:03	08:17:58	-16:40	US$ 8000
4	Kelly Williamson	USA	00:54:49	04:17:11	03:04:33	08:22:06	-08:51	US$ 6500
5	Alicia Kaye	USA	00:52:24	04:07:15	03:23:31	08:29:29	n/a	US$ 5000
6	Christine Hammond	USA	00:55:07	04:13:02	03:18:57	08:32:37	-25:54	US$ 3500
7	Jessica Meyers	USA	00:57:51	04:10:34	03:24:42	08:39:11	-20:44	US$ 2500
8	Emma-Kate Lidbury	GBR	00:55:13	04:09:01	03:34:03	08:45:13	07:25	US$ 2000
9	Katy Blakemore	USA	00:54:33	04:16:30	03:29:52	08:46:22	02:07	US$ 1500
10	Jocelyn McCauley	USA	00:57:31	04:02:20	03:41:32	08:47:09	-14:01	US$ 1000
11	Heather Leiggi	USA	01:07:01	04:03:20	03:31:48	08:48:13	-22:05
12	Lauren Brandon	USA	00:48:32	04:02:16	03:56:38	08:52:48	n/a
13	Christine Fletcher	CAN	01:02:22	04:09:37	03:33:11	08:53:14	-18:20
14	Bree Wee	USA	00:57:46	04:10:44	03:55:47	09:10:38	26:42
15	Amy Javens	USA	01:12:22	04:02:53	03:50:17	09:12:38	-06:53
16	Terry Casey	USA	01:02:18	04:20:30	04:14:59	09:47:43	-02:48
17	Caroline Martineau	CAN	01:06:58	04:21:07	04:14:51	09:51:37	19:00
18	Carrie Mccoy	USA	01:30:20	04:25:08	03:50:39	09:53:57	n/a
19	Jen Annett	CAN	01:02:54	03:59:39	04:50:02	09:57:53	54:57
20	Angela Kuehnlein	GER	01:07:03	04:25:44	04:19:14	09:58:50	37:47
	Rebekah Keat	AUS	00:53:40	04:05:48		DNF
	Kirsty Jahn	CAN	01:02:15	04:04:21		DNF
	Darbi Roberts	USA	00:54:20	04:16:05		DNF
	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	00:57:43	04:16:36		DNF
	Liz Baugher	USA	00:58:20	04:35:48		DNF

After Kaisa Lehtonen as winner of IM South Africa, Julia Gajer is the second European Automatic Qualifier this year. Julia has raced an amazingly stable race, almost exactly hitting her predicted times, so even if her individual legs were in line with what could be expected, her overall time was a good deal quicker. Lisa Roberts also had a great race. She is well ahead of the projected cutoff of 4.500 points and safe for a July slot. Alicia Kaye has scored well, but needs to add to her 4.340 points if she wants to qualify – another good 70.3 result should be enough for her. Jodie Robertson (3.960) and Emma-Kate Lidbury (3.695, but already 5 results) have to plan how to best get the remaining points needed.

Ironman Lanzarote 2016 (May 21st) – Predictions

February 26, 2017

IMLanza Update May 13th: According to her blog, Jeanne Collonge won’t be able to race, she’s targeting IM France now. Also there are a number of athletes on the startlist for IM Texas, so we may see some late withdrawals in the days before the race.

Update May 18th: According BMC-Etixx Sports Director Ben De Wolf Romain Guillaume won’t start in Lanzarote but is focusing on IM Cairns instead.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST)	08:55:38	Virginia Berasategui (ESP)	10:09:40
2006	Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST)	08:54:14	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:52:45
2007	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	08:49:39	Tiina Boman (FIN)	09:58:42
2008	Bert Jammaer (BEL)	08:59:40	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	10:02:30
2009	Bert Jammaer (BEL)	08:54:03	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:54:58
2010	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	08:37:43	Catriona Morrison (GBR)	10:03:53
2011	Timo Bracht (GER)	08:30:34	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	09:28:12
2012	Victor Del Corral (ESP)	08:44:39	Michelle Vesterby (DEN)	09:58:06
2013	Faris Al-Sultan (GER)	08:42:40	Kristin Moeller (GER)	09:37:34
2014	Romain Guillaume (FRA)	08:47:39	Lucy Gossage (GBR)	09:41:40
2015	Alessandro Degasperi (ITA)	08:56:49	Diana Riesler (GER)	09:56:03

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	00:51:10	05:12:12	02:47:15	08:56:49
2	Christian Kramer	GER	00:48:20	05:05:51	02:59:14	08:59:30
3	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	00:52:04	05:10:48	02:54:13	09:04:45

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Diana Riesler	GER	00:55:40	05:37:11	03:16:20	09:56:03
2	Michaela Herlbauer	AUT	00:53:21	05:58:16	03:15:05	10:13:49
3	Caroline Livesey	GBR	00:58:47	05:59:25	03:25:52	10:31:56

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:30:34	Timo Bracht	2011-05-21
Swim	overall	00:46:15	Luc Van Lierde	2006-05-20
Bike	overall	04:40:58	Maik Twelsiek	2010-05-22
Run	overall	02:44:29	Gerrit Schellens	2005-06-04
Total	female	09:28:12	Rachel Joyce	2011-05-21
Swim	female	00:50:40	Hillary Biscay	2010-05-22
Bike	female	05:26:23	Tara Norton	2010-05-22
Run	female	02:58:37	Kristin Moeller	2013-05-18

It’s quite unusual that an overall course record race isn’t showing up in any of the individual legs. This shows that – even more than in other races – the winner in Lanzarote has to have a balanced race across all three legs.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lanzarote is – 14:36.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	-07:10	02:21	-20:46	01:20	45	-07:10	02:21	-20:46	01:20
2007	-12:01	-01:04	-09:17	-04:09	40	-09:36	00:39	-15:02	-01:24
2008	-13:09	00:47	-18:11	04:48	47	-10:47	00:41	-16:05	00:40
2009	-09:01	-00:08	-14:46	03:52	44	-10:20	00:29	-15:45	01:28
2010	-07:07	01:33	-09:39	00:08	34	-09:42	00:42	-14:32	01:12
2011	-08:23	02:22	-16:18	05:15	23	-09:29	00:59	-14:50	01:52
2012	-17:54	00:53	-17:29	04:32	22	-10:41	00:58	-15:12	02:15
2013	-19:06	00:22	-19:39	03:19	19 of 31	-11:44	00:53	-15:46	02:23
2014	-23:49	00:50	-18:18	-01:38	37 of 56	-13:04	00:53	-16:03	01:56
2015	-28:18	01:14	-31:00	00:13	29 of 44	-14:36	00:55	-17:32	01:46

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Jan Frodeno	GER	08:21:26	08:07:22	00:45:38	04:44:00	02:46:47	71% +29% -0% (4)	1
2	3	Timo Bracht	GER	08:35:27	08:22:49	00:48:12	04:52:21	02:49:54	79% +10% -10% (25)	8
3	5	Ivan Rana	ESP	08:39:56	08:24:55	00:47:12	04:59:39	02:48:05	83% +10% -6% (9)	11
4	6	Jesse Thomas	USA	08:43:12	08:39:40	00:49:51	04:53:16	02:55:05	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(55)
5	7	David McNamee	GBR	08:45:23	08:27:09	00:47:15	05:03:52	02:49:16	100% +0% -0% (3)	15
6	4	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	ESP	08:50:32	08:37:51	00:48:02	05:08:23	02:49:07	90% +10% -0% (11)	46
7	2	~~Romain Guillaume~~	~~FRA~~	~~08:50:43~~	~~08:49:17~~	~~00:47:28~~	~~04:54:34~~	~~03:03:41~~	~~54% +24% -22% (26)~~	82
8	22	Esben Hovgaard	DEN	08:52:23	08:49:38	00:52:09	04:58:13	02:57:01	54% +39% -7% (8)	84
9	50	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:54:23	08:46:17	00:51:37	04:58:12	02:59:35	60% +0% -40% (6)	(75)
10	47	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:55:25	08:53:25	00:48:13	04:57:14	03:04:58	36% +0% -64% (5)	(98)
11	8	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	09:00:56	08:51:07	00:46:58	05:05:00	03:03:58	40% +4% -56% (45)	88
12	35	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	09:01:58	08:53:11	00:51:48	05:02:42	03:02:28	89% +11% -0% (5)	96
13	9	Nicholas Ward Munoz	GBR	09:05:47	08:54:53	00:53:13	05:10:15	02:57:19	45% +16% -39% (16)	(102)
14	45	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	09:07:50	08:53:24	00:47:08	05:08:47	03:06:56	26% +32% -42% (14)	97
15	24	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	09:08:15	09:03:40	00:50:14	04:55:07	03:17:55	16% +40% -44% (8)	133
16	44	Graeme Stewart	GBR	09:11:38	09:01:49	00:54:18	05:05:37	03:06:43	56% +20% -25% (10)	124
17	34	Carlos Lopez Diaz	ESP	09:11:47	09:00:05	00:46:48	05:09:23	03:10:37	38% +19% -44% (5)	119
18	39	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	09:15:33	09:01:02	00:48:23	05:14:42	03:07:29	83% +5% -11% (25)	121
19	36	Mikita Hryhoryeu	POL	09:16:41	09:12:56	00:50:11	05:18:33	03:02:58	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(177)
20	48	Marcel Bischof	GER	09:21:51	09:17:21	00:55:51	05:13:16	03:07:44	77% +23% -0% (12)	190
21	43	Harry Springall	GBR	09:22:34	09:18:46	00:53:33	05:02:53	03:21:09	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(194)
22	49	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	09:24:53	09:15:28	00:52:25	05:09:18	03:18:11	59% +41% -0% (3)	186
23	30	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:32:34	09:34:05	00:56:42	05:08:07	03:22:45	50% +48% -2% (13)	(230)
24	21	Till Schramm	GER	09:34:15	09:38:23	00:56:11	05:11:38	03:21:26	9% +14% -77% (5)	242
25	46	Craig Twigg	GBR	09:40:05	09:53:38	00:51:57	05:05:19	03:37:49	3% +21% -76% (12)	263
26	23	Marcus Hultgren	SWE	09:43:23	09:35:12	00:56:58	05:24:10	03:17:15	64% +36% -0% (3)	234
27	32	Enric Gussinyer	ESP	09:46:21	09:31:00	00:50:55	05:17:01	03:33:24	86% +0% -14% (6)	223
28	26	Michael Louys	BEL	09:46:54	09:42:38	01:00:58	05:20:22	03:20:34	42% +19% -39% (6)	247
29	29	John Manuel Galindo Rooney	ESP	09:47:41	09:43:39	00:51:33	05:23:47	03:27:22	37% +63% -0% (2)	(250)
30	41	Gilian Oriet	SUI	10:02:59	10:05:22	00:56:53	05:29:07	03:31:59	12% +14% -74% (8)	(275)
31	51	Armin Atzlinger	AUT	10:08:16	10:04:10	00:53:53	05:38:17	03:31:06	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(275)
32	52	Christopher Baird	USA	11:52:35	11:47:47	01:03:06	06:54:19	03:50:10	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(300)
33	38	Marek Nemcik	SVK	12:04:20	12:16:25	01:11:17	06:12:24	04:35:39	32% +23% -45% (32)	301
	25	Jim Thijs	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	27	Diego Van Looy	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	28	Rob Bobbaers	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	31	Francisco Fernandez Cortes	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	33	Rayco Marrero Avero	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	37	Alen Kralj	SVN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	40	Frederic Garcia	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	42	Dominic Rohan-Gates	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (2)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	10	Diana Riesler	GER	09:39:22	09:26:27	00:56:36	05:20:49	03:16:57	55% +17% -28% (17)	22
2	17	Alexandra Tondeur	BEL	10:03:56	09:59:52	00:56:57	05:45:30	03:16:29	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(90)
3	14	~~Jeanne Collonge~~	~~FRA~~	~~10:04:03~~	~~10:08:28~~	~~00:56:59~~	~~05:35:55~~	~~03:26:09~~	~~21% +16% -63% (9)~~	~~(105)~~
4	13	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	10:10:37	10:11:01	00:54:22	05:46:04	03:25:11	53% +47% -0% (8)	110
5	11	Caroline Livesey	GBR	10:14:26	10:06:27	00:59:57	05:43:45	03:25:44	70% +0% -30% (4)	101
6	15	Tine Holst	DEN	10:15:55	10:06:09	01:04:09	05:39:07	03:27:39	89% +11% -0% (10)	100
7	20	Jocelyn Mccauley	USA	10:20:49	10:22:47	00:58:21	05:50:13	03:27:16	41% +0% -59% (4)	(139)
8	18	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:34:38	10:48:03	00:57:23	05:48:58	03:43:17	26% +4% -70% (20)	(177)
9	19	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:35:03	10:29:50	01:00:55	05:56:47	03:32:21	54% +23% -23% (10)	160
10	12	Anne Jensen	DEN	10:36:48	10:30:47	01:08:01	05:42:00	03:41:47	65% +0% -35% (3)	164
	16	Lucy Charles	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the raw numbers, current Kona champion Jan Frodeno is the clear favorite to win the race – he’s got the best swim, bike and run ratings of the whole field. But he’s had a calf injury that forced him to skip IM South Africa and his main focus for Lanzarote will be to validate his automatic qualifier Kona slot, so maybe there is a chance for the other athletes. Timo Bracht would be the favorite in almost any other field, he’s focused on getting the points he needs to qualify for Kona – for him that would mean a Top 3. (Timo currently has 2.320 points.) David McNamee (3.310), Ivan Rana (3.025) and Jesse Thomas (2.545) need to finish just outside the Top 3 to secure a July slot, while Romain Guillaume (1.470) would have to win to punch his Kona ticket.

Jan Frodeno: 43% (1-1)
Timo Bracht: 34% (2-1)
Ivan Rana: 11% (8-1)
Romain Guillaume: 3% (29-1)
Jesse Thomas: 3% (32-1)
David McNamee: 2% (39-1)

Female Race Participants

2015 Lanzarote champion Diana Riesler is the clear favorite to defend her title – and she will need the points to have a shot at July qualifying after her DNF in Kona. The athlete with the most KPR points is Tine Holst (3.185), she’ll need at least a Top3 for a July slot. The next best in the KPR are Alexandra Tondeur (2.630), Saleta Castro (1.375) and Caroline Livesay (1.150) who need a great performance in Lanzarote to keep their Kona chances alive.

Diana Riesler: 72% (1-1)
Jeanne Collonge: 8% (12-1)
Saleta Castro Nogueira: 7% (13-1)
Tine Holst: 5% (18-1)
Caroline Livesey: 4% (22-1)
Alexandra Tondeur: 2% (44-1)

With Lucy Charles there is an interesting new Pro female in the field. Lucy was the fastest female amateur in Kona 2015, and her swim time of 52:20 was a whopping 2:44 than Jodie Swallow’s best Pro swim time. While we can expect Lucy to lead after the swim, she’ll need to step up her bike and run (5:38 and 3:44 in Kona) to hold on to the lead. But she’ll be a factor in the Top 5 for sure, and maybe even for the podium.

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