Analysis

With 2018 Kona qualifying almost completed, a lot of Pro athletes are already planning their qualifying for Kona 2019. At the end of last year, Ironman has announced a new system for Kona Pro Qualifying that is going to replace the existing KPR system, starting with qualifying for Kona 2019. The first Pro races under the new system are going to be Ironman Wales and Ironman Wisconsin in early September. This post is a summary of my understanding of the new system and the implications for Pros that want to qualify.

Main Elements

Here are the main elements of the new “slot-based” system. Ironman is expected to release “the fine print” on the new system after the end of 2018 qualifying, but I don’t expect any significant differences to the elements outlined in this post.

1. Each Pro Ironman race will have at least one base Kona slot each for the male and female Pros. The slot will go to the winner of the race (or the best-placed athlete not yet qualified, see #4). Races designated as Regional Championships (currently Mar del Plata, South Africa, Texas, Cairns and Frankfurt) will have two base slots for each gender. (There will also be single gender races, these will have a slot just for that gender.)
2. Some races will have an additional two “unassigned” slots, each of the Regional Championships and about five other Ironman races. These slots will be proportionally allocated to the male and female Pros based on the number of starters (see example below).
3. There will also be Automatic Qualifiers (subject to validation by finishing an Ironman in the qualifying season): As under the existing KPR system, Kona winners will receive a five-year exemption, in addition there will be a one-year exemption for the 70.3 Champions and the other podium finishers in Kona.
4. Similar to the system for agegroupers, Pro slots have to be accepted after each race – so it’s likely that the Pros will also have to attend the “World Championships Slot Allocation” ceremony that’s usually held the day after the race. When Pros are not interested in a slot or have already qualified at another race, the slot will roll down to the next athlete.

Determining the 2018 Kona Field with the New System

Obviously, simply using the results from this season and applying the new system has a number of limitations. First of all, the races with unassigned slots are not fully determined yet. (Ironman has published the slots for the 2018 races, among them IM Arizona and IM Western Australia will have floating slots in addition to the Regional Championships in Mar del Plata.) In addition, the number of slots available will influence where athletes will race and how the floating slots will be divided between male and female Pros.

The following example from IM Frankfurt shows how the slots would have been distributed and how far slots might roll late in the season:

• First of all, as a Regional Championship Frankfurt has 4 base slots (2 for the females and 2 for the male Pros) and 2 unassigned slots.
• The 2018 start numbers were 21 male and 13 females. Proportionally, this means 3.7 slots for the men and 2.3 for the women. Clearly, this means that both floating slots go to the men, so it’s 4 male and 2 female Kona Pro slots in total.
• Male Slots roll down to seventh place (in order of the finishers): Jan Frodeno (AQ slot as previous Kona winner), Patrik Nilsson (#1 slot), Patrick Lange (AQ slot as Kona winner), Nick Kastelein (#2 slot), Josh Amberger (already qualified in South Africa), Philipp Koutny (#3 slot), Tyler Butterfield (#4 slot)
• Female Slots roll down to fourth place: Daniela Ryf (AQ slot as Kona winner), Sarah True (#1 slot), Sarah Crowley (AQ slot as Kona podium), Anne Haug (#2 slot)

(Update Nov 24th, 2018: After the first few races, there are some more details on the algorithm that IM is using to determine how the slots will be assigned to the genders. Based on my understanding, when there are at least twice as many male Pro starters, both slots will go to the men, otherwise the slots will be evenly split. In the Frankfurt example above, there are fewer men than twice the females, and there would have probably been three slots for the MPRO and three for the WPRO.
Update December 2018: For the Regional Championships, the details are even trickier. Check out my post on the algorithm for assigning slots.)

When simulating the 2018 field with the new system, here are some changes:

• Ironman winners, but not enough KPR points
  Laurel Wasser (winner IM Taiwan), Diana Riesler (winner IM Malaysia), Jesper Svensson (winner IM Brasil) and both winners at IM France (Giulio Molinari and Corinne Abraham) would be in under the new system, but haven’t been able to qualify in the July KPR. (Some are still looking to qualify in August.)
• Getting a “high” rolldown slot
  If IM Brasil or IM UK had been a race with floating slots (as mentioned above, this is possible but not certain), the slots would have rolled down quite far to “local” athletes doing their home IM. Obviously, knowing that there would have been a number of races would have impacted who would have raced there.
• Podium results, but no wins
  Athletes such as Jens Petersen-Bach (qualified by finishing second at IM Italy and IM Malaysia and finishing fourth at IM Lanzarote) or Mike Philipps (second IM Barcelona, fourth IM Switzerland, fifth at IM New Zealand and winner 70.3 Taupo) have been able to collect a number of KPR points, but would have missed qualifying under the new system.
• Athletes having raced well in Kona or at 70.3 Champs
  With the KPR system, a good result in Kona or at the 70.3 Champs was almost good enough to secure a Kona slot. This season, Ben Hoffmann, James Cunnama, Annabel Luxford or Emma Pallant were able to qualify even without winning an IM.

Implications

Here are some consequences of the new system to be aware of:

• Less Racing Required
  To Qualify With the new system, you can secure your Kona slot as a Pro with just one good race, addressing the main criticism of the old KPR system that it forced athletes to race too much. This also offers better chances to qualify for athletes that have been injured or pregnant in the previous season.
• Some Luck Required
  As most races have just one slot available, one “superstar” showing up can severely decrease the chances for everyone else in the field. Especially second-tier athletes will need some luck to pick a race without any strong athletes racing there in order to qualify.
• Earlier but Final Rolldown Decisions
  With the KPR, all decisions about accepting or declining slots happens at the cutoff dates in late July and August. The new system pushes these decisions to right after the qualifying race. Once a slot is assigned, it won’t get re-assigned even if that athlete decides not to race Kona after all (maybe because of an injury).
• Decreased Weight of Kona (and 70.3s)
  In the past, a Top 10 in Kona (or a good result at 70.3 Worlds) gave you a solid head start for next season qualifying, and lots of athletes secured their slots just by adding a finish in a late-season IM. With the new system, even a fourth place in Kona does not give you any help for the following year.
• Still no Equality in Kona
  As almost all IMs have more male than female Pros, the majority of the floating slots is likely to get assigned to the men. (A likely distribution of the 24 floating slots is 18 MPRO and 6 WPRO, leading to a total of about 55 male and 42 female Pros in Kona.)
• Number of Qualifiers Tied to Number of Pro Races
  Changes in the Pro racing calendar (adding/removing races) would impact the number of total available slots for Kona. This will have a bigger influence on 70.3 Worlds Qualifying that will use almost the same system (1 base slot per gender, no floating slots) but has a larger number of races in the calendar (about 75 70.3s with a Pro category).

Here is my calculation of the KPR at the end of July, deciding 40 male and 28 female slots (in addition to the Automatic Qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell will show the same data). I do not count AQs and athletes that haven’t validated in my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the Top 40 male and Top 28 females. I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown.

There is going to be a second cutoff in August, adding another 10 male and 7 female slots. Once the field has been completed, I will work on this year’s version of the Kona Rating Report, looking at the field and each athlete’s chances for a good result. The free report will be released in time before the Kona race, you can already pre-order your copy.

July 27th: For now, the tables below contain the athletes that I consider safe for a July slot before the final races this weekend. The remaining races will decide the final spots, check out the geeky details about who’s currently in and who can still make in this post (“Kona 2018 Qualifying Before the Last July Races“). I will update this post as soon as each of the races is over with the implications.

July 28th: There are two impacts from 70.3 Santa Rosa for Kona Qualifying:

• Tyler Butterfield finished third, adds 540 points for a total of 3.705 and moves up #31 in the points rankings.
• Thiago Vinhal finished tenth, adds 115 points for a total of 3.700 and moves up to #32 in the points rankings.

For both Tyler and Thiago it’s not quite enough to call him safe (so they don’t yet show up in the table below), but both are strong candidates for July slots now. The final decisions still depend on the remaining races.

July 29th (afternoon): After IM Hamburg and IM Switzerland the female rankings are finished, so the table shows the top athletes. For those that are beyond the Top 28 ranks, I show their ranks in brackets, they have to hope for a rolldown. (As Liz Lyles is likely to decline her slot, I also show #29 – Anne Haug – without brackets.) The male rankings will be finalized after IM Whistler later today, so I show only the athletes I now consider safe for a slot and will update as soon as Whistler is completed. 

July 29th (late): Even though Ironman Whistler is not finished yet, there aren’t going to be any significant changes. Marino has been running in twelfth place (he may still improve), so his total will be slightly higher than his current 3.600. (A twelfth place would be 85 points.) In addition, Mark Bowstead cannot finish on the podium, so he can’t move into the Top 40 anymore. Even if he is going to finished sixth (he is currently running in eighth), he would still end up with less than 3.000 points.

July 30th: The male rankings are now updated to reflect the outcome of IM Whistler. Ironman will now contact the athletes if they want to accept their slots, if one declines the slot will roll down to the next athlete. Depending on the number of declines and the “length of chain declines”, this process can take up to a week and longer. 

July 31st: The first slots have been accepted and “Q”s start to appear next to the names on the Ironman KPR website. There is one interesting development: Cam Brown has accepted his slot, deciding one of the questions around potential rolldowns.

August 1st: Denis Chevrot is now also listed with a “Q” and I’m now showing him without the brackets. I’m assuming that it was Marino who declined his slot, but as I can’t be sure I show his “D” (for decline) with a question mark. As expected, Terenzo accepted his slot even while still recovering from his accident.

August 2nd: As expected, Anne Haug has received and accepted a rolldown slot. However, this slot may also be courtesy of Lucy Gossage wh0 announced on Twitter that she’s not accepting her slot. This means that an extra slot is likely to roll down to Melanie Burke.

August 3rd: As expected, Melanie Burke has also received a rolldown slot.

August 10th: One more slot has rolled on the female side: Lisa Roberts has decided to tackle other races in the fall and declined her slot. Sara Svensk has accepted a slot, also impacting August qualifying. On the men’s side, there are still three athletes who have not accepted their slots: Ivan Tutukin, Bart Aernouts and Joe Skipper. Today is the last day for making a decision.

August 12th: All male and female July slots have been accepted with new rolldowns. I have posted an “Always Up-to-date 2018 Kona Startlist” that will be updated with the August slots and any other new developments.

Male KPR Rankings

Rank	Name	Nation	Points	Races	Last Race
AQ	Lange, Patrick	GER	12030	2+2 (2890/500)	2018-07-08
1	Sanders, Lionel	CAN	11450	2+2 (2000/750)	2018-06-24
AQ	Kienle, Sebastian	GER	11080	2+2 (2000/1275)	2018-07-01
2	Bozzone, Terenzo	NZL	10890	3+1 (2000/1275)	2018-06-10
3	McNamee, David	GBR	7900	2+2 (30/640)	2018-07-01
4	Cunnama, James	ZAF	7780	2+2 (1280/500)	2018-07-29
5	Gomez, Javier	ESP	7320	1+2 (3400/920)	2018-07-28
6	Nilsson, Patrik	SWE	7225	2+0	2018-07-08
7	Amberger, Josh	AUS	6630	2+2 (2090/500)	2018-07-08
8	Tutukin, Ivan	RUS	6335	2+2 (1600/45)	2018-07-01
9	Potts, Andy	USA	6330	2+2 (1280/400)	2018-07-01
AQ	Buckingham, Kyle	ZAF	6145	3+1 (340/135)	2018-06-10
AQ	Currie, Braden	NZL	6065	2+2 (340/640)	2018-06-10
10	Aernouts, Bart	BEL	5865	2+2 (2000/540)	2018-07-29
11	McMahon, Brent	CAN	5810	3+1 (1600/540)	2018-07-29
12	Rana, Ivan	ESP	5755	3+1 (1280/240)	2018-05-26
13	Wurf, Cameron	AUS	5735	3+0 (1280/0)	2018-07-29
AQ	Frodeno, Jan	GER	5735	2+2 (235/750)	2018-07-08
14	Van Berkel, Tim	AUS	5565	3+1 (1335/400)	2018-06-10
15	Weiss, Michael	AUT	5435	2+2 (1600/750)	2018-07-01
AQ	Hanson, Matt	USA	5250	2+2 (235/500)	2018-06-24
16	Amorelli, Igor	BRA	5250	3+1 (1280/750)	2018-07-08
17	Skipper, Joe	GBR	5200	3+0 (1600/0)	2018-07-29
18	Clavel, Maurice	GER	5095	1+2 (2890/435)	2018-06-17
19	van Berkel, Jan	SUI	5050	3+0 (960/0)	2018-07-29
20	Costes, Antony	FRA	4975	2+2 (1600/625)	2018-06-24
21	Starykowicz, Andrew	USA	4670	3+1 (960/640)	2018-06-24
22	Clarke, Will	GBR	4405	2+2 (960/15)	2018-07-29
23	Collington, Kevin	USA	4250	2+2 (960/540)	2018-06-10
24	Petersen-Bach, Jens	DEN	4180	3+1 (960/20)	2018-05-26
25	Phillips, Mike	NZL	4030	3+1 (720/750)	2018-07-29
26	Degasperi, Alessandro	ITA	4005	3+1 (450/220)	2018-07-01
27	Wild, Ruedi	SUI	3995	2+2 (1100/640)	2018-07-14
28	Dreitz, Andreas	GER	3975	1+2 (2000/540)	2018-07-01
–	Stein, Boris	GER	3920	1+2 (3100/320)	2018-06-10
29	O’Donnell, Timothy	USA	3890	2+2 (565/435)	2018-07-28
30	Hoffman, Ben	USA	3870	2+1	2018-04-15
31	Brown, Cameron	NZL	3840	3+0 (960/0)	2018-06-03
32	Guillaume, Romain	FRA	3795	2+2 (960/400)	2018-06-24
33 D?	Vanhoenacker, Marino	BEL	3729	3+0	2018-07-29
34	McKenzie, Luke	AUS	3715	2+1	2018-05-06
35	Butterfield, Tyler	BMU	3705	2+2 (235/540)	2018-07-28
36	Vinhal, Thiago	BRA	3700	3+1 (405/115)	2018-07-28
37	Plese, David	SLO	3670	3+1 (855/255)	2018-07-29
38	Chrabot, Matt	USA	3630	1+2 (2000/640)	2018-07-01
AQ	Van Lierde, Frederik	BEL	3605	2+1	2018-06-24
39	Schildknecht, Ronnie	SUI	3545	3+1 (235/500)	2018-07-29
40	Reed, Tim	AUS	3470	2+2 (340/785)	2018-06-10
41	Chevrot, Denis	FRA	3465	2+2 (235/500)	2018-06-10
(42)	Millward, Callum	NZL	3465	2+2 (685/540)	2018-06-10
(43)	Cochrane, Simon	NZL	3420	3+1 (720/140)	2018-07-15
(44)	Kastelein, Nick	AUS	3340	1+2 (2455/345)	2018-07-08
(45)	Koutny, Philipp	SUI	3325	2+2 (855/400)	2018-07-08
(46)	Shearon, Jonathan	USA	3290	3+1 (540/540)	2018-07-29
(47)	Don, Tim	GBR	3160	1+2 (230/500)	2018-07-29
(48)	Jurkiewicz, Jeremy	FRA	3125	3+1 (540/345)	2018-07-29

There could be a few rolldowns, for example it is unclear wether Marino Vanhoenacker and Cam Brown are interested in taking their slots. In that case, the next athletes (the ones currently with ranks in brackets) would get a rolldown slot. (Update: Cam has accepted his slot; Marino has probably declined.)

Denis Chevrot and Callum Millward have the same points total, but Denis is ahead by the tie-breaking best single race score. (Denis’ best score is 2.090 from IM Cairns, while Callum’s best is 1.600 from IM Louisville.)

Boris Stein is not eligible for a Kona slot as he hasn’t finished an Ironman outside of Kona this season. He had a bike crash shortly before his planned race at IM France and is still recovering. He hopes to secure his slot at IM Copenhagen in August.

Female KPR Rankings

Rank	Name	Nation	Points	Races	Last Race
AQ	Ryf, Daniela	SUI	16085	2+2 (4000/1085)	2018-07-08
AQ	Charles, Lucy	GBR	11840	2+1	2018-07-01
1	Crowley, Sarah	AUS	11370	3+0 (2000/0)	2018-07-29
2	Sali, Kaisa	FIN	10000	3+1 (2000/750)	2018-07-29
3	Cheetham, Susie	GBR	9520	3+1 (960/435)	2018-07-01
AQ	Hauschildt, Melissa	AUS	9120	3+1 (1620/1500)	2018-06-17
4	Jackson, Heather	USA	8975	2+2 (2000/500)	2018-07-22
5	Lester, Carrie	AUS	7990	3+1 (1600/540)	2018-06-24
6	True, Sarah	USA	6670	1+2 (3400/1085)	2018-07-08
7	Jahn, Kirsty	CAN	6590	3+1 (1600/990)	2018-07-28
8	Luxford, Annabel	AUS	6495	2+1	2018-07-29
9	Hufe, Mareen	GER	6475	3+1 (1600/240)	2018-07-01
10 D	Gossage, Lucy	GBR	6435	3+1 (2000/435)	2018-07-15
11 D	Lyles, Elizabeth	USA	6325	2+1	2017-10-14
12	Siddall, Laura	GBR	5810	3+1 (1375/435)	2018-07-28
13	McCauley, Jocelyn	USA	5770	2+2 (1280/640)	2018-07-28
14	Piampiano, Sarah	USA	5630	3+1 (1280/750)	2018-07-22
15	Corbin, Linsey	USA	5625	2+2 (1900/400)	2018-07-28
AQ	Adam, Teresa	NZL	5600	2+0	2018-06-10
16	Smith, Lesley	USA	5440	2+2 (1600/435)	2018-05-13
17	Genet, Manon	FRA	5400	3+1 (1280/750)	2018-06-24
18	Robertson, Jodie	USA	5300	2+2 (960/400)	2018-07-22
19	McBride, Rachel	CAN	5265	2+2 (1670/500)	2018-07-08
20	Vesterby, Michelle	DEN	5015	3+0 (960/0)	2018-07-14
21 D	Roberts, Lisa	USA	4960	3+0 (960/0)	2018-07-29
22	Pallant, Emma	GBR	4900	1+2 (1280/920)	2018-07-01
23	Frades Larralde, Gurutze	ESP	4865	3+1 (340/400)	2018-07-14
24	Frederiksen, Helle	DEN	4845	1+2 (1600/1275)	2018-07-14
AQ	Carfrae, Mirinda	AUS	4790	1+2 (3400/640)	2018-07-28
25	Huetthaler, Lisa	AUT	4680	2+2 (1600/640)	2018-07-28
26	Stage Nielsen, Maja	DEN	4615	3+1 (855/240)	2018-07-29
27	Annett, Jen	CAN	4615	3+1 (1280/400)	2018-07-22
28	Deckers, Tine	BEL	4490	3+1 (855/435)	2018-06-03
29	Haug, Anne	GER	4480	1+2 (2455/750)	2018-07-08
30	Burke, Melanie	NZL	4440	3+1 (405/345)	2018-07-29
31	Svensk, Sara	SWE	4035	2+2 (540/320)	2018-07-01
(32)	Lindholm Borg, Camilla	SWE	3920	3+1 (720/320)	2018-07-15
(33)	Chura, Haley	USA	3875	2+2 (705/920)	2018-06-24
(34)	Grohmann, Katharina	GER	3620	3+1 (340/345)	2018-07-29
(35)	Konschak, Katja	GER	3555	3+1 (405/100)	2018-07-08

Liz Lyles has announced her retirement and it is therefore expected that she will decline her Kona slot once she is “formally” asked by Ironman after the end of July qualifying. Is she declines, her slot would roll to Anne Haug who is ranked in the #29 points slot. (Update Aug 3rd: Two slots have rolled, one of them from Liz and another from Lucy Gossage.)

Update July 22nd: The post has been updated after the results of IM Lake Placid (WPRO only).

This post looks at Kona Qualifying before the remaining July races:

Date	Type	Race	Points
22-Jul	IM	Ironman Lake Placid – WPRO only	P-2000
28-Jul	70.3	70.3 Santa Rosa	P-750
29-Jul	IM	Ironman Switzerland	P-2000
29-Jul	IM	Ironman Hamburg	P-2000
29-Jul	IM	Ironman Canada (Whistler) – MPRO only	P-2000

The following analysis is built on the available start lists posted by Ironman and assumes that there are not going to be any late entries.

Women’s Qualifying

There are 28 Kona points slots (not counting the Automatic Qualifiers) for the female Pros in July. (There will be another 7 in August.) Here is a graphical view of the athletes who I consider to be safe for a July slot:

The following table lists the athletes currently occupying the last qualifying slots:

Rank	Athlete	Points	Races	Comments
(5)	Heather Jackson	6.975 (NV)	1+2	registered for IM Lake Placid
–	Liz Lyles	6.325	2+1	expected to decline (announced retirement)
(17)	Annabel Luxford	5.215 (NV)	1+1	registered for IM Switzerland
23	Helle Frederiksen	4.845	1+2
24	Lisa Huetthaler	4.680	2+2
25	Jen Annett	4.615	3+1
26	Tine Deckers	4.490	3+1
27	Anne Haug	4.480	1+2
26	Jodie Robertson	4.340	1+2	registered for IM Lake Placid & 70.3 Santa Cruz
28	Melanie Burke	4.035	2+1	registered for IM Switzerland
29	Sara Svensk	4.035	2+2	registered for IM Switzerland & IM Hamburg

(Heather Jackson validated by winning IM Lake Placid, Jodie Robertson finished fourth and scored enough points to be safe now. Jen Annett finished second and is now “in the bubble” for a July slot.)

As you can see, I’m not counting Liz Lyles as she has announced her retirement and is expected to decline her slot. (The “formal decline” can only happen after the end of July qualifying when Ironman asks athletes to accept their slots.) There is are also Heather Jackson (registered for IM Lake Placid) and Annabel Luxford (registered for IM Switzerland) who still needs an Ironman finish to be eligible for a points slot, but they should be able to do so in their races. With these reasonable assumptions, Sara Svensk Melanie Burke currently occupies the last qualifying spot with 4.035 points. (She has the same number of points as Melanie Burke Sara but is ahead behind on the tie-breaker top score.) Also, Helle Frederiksen is “safe” for a slot, there are only six athletes with a chance to pass her in the remaining races so she can’t fall further back than to 28th points place.

The following table lists what each of the athletes who are on one of the start lists and who can still overtake Sara Melanie will need, even if that is probably not going to be enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass Sara, there are likely others that leap further ahead). In brackets I have added the (result) that will be needed to be quite certain of a slot (regardless of where others may finish, “n/a” meaning that even with a win a slot is not assured).

Athlete	Points	Races	Registered for	Needs
Maja Stage Nielsen	3.335	2+1	IM Hamburg	5th (2nd)
Corinne Abraham	3.280	2+1	IM Hamburg	4th (2nd)
Jen Annett	3.255	2+2	IM Lake Placid	3rd (win)
Kelsey Withrow	2.560	1+2	IM Lake Placid, 70.3 Santa Rosa	2nd (n/a)
Daniela Sämmler	2.460	1+2	IM Hamburg	2nd (n/a)
Martina Kunz	2.330	2+2	IM Zürich	win (n/a)

There are a lot more athletes registered for the remaining July races, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.

Men’s Qualifying

There are 40 Kona points slots (not counting the Automatic Qualifiers) for the male Pros in July. (There will be another 10 in August.) Here is a quick view of the athletes that I consider safe for a July slot:

The following table lists the male Pros in the last qualifying ranks:

Rank	Athlete	Points	Races	Comments
(7)	James Cunnama	6.500	1+2 (NV)	registered for IM Hamburg
–	Boris Stein	3.920	1+2 (NV)	not racing in July, looking to validate in Copenhagen
(28)	Bart Aernouts	3.865	1+2 (NV)	registered for IM Hamburg
29	Romain Guillaume	3.795	2+2
30	Luke McKenzie	3.715	2+1
31	Tyler Butterfield	3.705	2+2	after 70.3 Santa Rosa
32	Thiago Vinhal	3.700	3+1
33	Matt Chrabot	3.630	1+2
34	Marino Vanhoenacker	3.600	2+0	unknown if interested in a slot, registered for IM Canada
35	Tim Reed	3.470	2+2
36	Callum Millward	3.465	2+2	registered for IM Canada
37	Denis Chevrot	3.465	2+2
38	Will Clarke	3.445	1+2	registered for IM Hamburg
39	Simon Cochrane	3.420	3+1
40	Mike Phillips	3.390	2+2	registered for IM Switzerland
41	Jan van Berkel	3.390	3+0	registered for IM Switzerland

James Cunnama, Boris Stein and Bart Aernouts still need an Ironman finish to be eligible for a slot. James and Bart are registered for IM Hamburg, and “just finishing” will secure a points slot for them. However, Boris has been injured shortly before IM France, he is not going to race before the end of July. Therefore I am including James and Bart but not Boris in my “points ranks”. This means that currently Jan van Berkel occupies the last direct qualifying slot, but it’s safe to assume that a number of athletes are going to score and that more than 3.390 points will be needed. There are a few more uncertainties, for example it is unclear if Cam Brown or Marino Vanhoenacker are even interested in a Kona slot (they might decline) and whether Terenzo Bozzone is going to accept his slot (he is still recovering from being hit by a truck while training on the bike).

There is a theoretical chance for the cutoff to occur as high as 3.890 points, but that requires a large number of pretty improbably race outcomes. As shown in the graph above I therefore consider everyone down to Cam Brown (at 3.840 points) to be safe, and every athlete who is able to pass Cam is going to receive in a slot unless some really weird things occur.

The next table lists what each of the athletes who are on one of the start lists and who can still get to at least 3.400 points will need, even if that is probably not going to be enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass that mark, there are likely others that leap further ahead). In brackets I have added the (result) that will be needed to be quite certain of a slot (regardless of where others may finish, “n/a” meaning that even with a win a slot is not assured).

Athlete	Points	Races	Registered for	Needs
Philipp Koutny	3.325	2+2	IM Switzerland	6th (4th)
Jonathan Shearon	3.290	2+2	IM Hamburg	5th (3rd)
Ty Butterfield	3.165	2+1	70.3 Santa Rosa	6th (2nd)
Jeremy Jurkiewicz	3.100	3+1	IM Switzerland	4th (3rd)
Ronnie Schildknecht	3.005	2+2	IM Switzerland	5th (3rd)
Tim Don	2.900	0+2	IM Hamburg	6th (4th)
Christian Kramer	2.675	2+2	IM Hamburg	4th (3rd)
Jesper Svensson	2.620	1+2	IM Hamburg	4th (3rd)
David Plese	2.455	3+1	IM Switzerland	2nd (win)
Mark Bowstead	2.425	2+1	IM Canada	3rd (2nd)
Miguel Blanchard Tinto	2.340	3+1	IM Hamburg, IM Switzerland	2nd (win)
Johann Ackermann	1.905	2+2	IM Switzerland	2nd (win)
Sven Riederer	1.845	1+2	IM Switzerland	2nd (win)
Horst Reichel	1.445	1+2	IM Hamburg	win (n/a)

As for the women, there are a lot more athletes registered for the remaining July races, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.

With only seven Ironman races remaining before the first cutoff at the end of July, it’s a good time to have a close look at the current qualifying situation. This post looks at the situation for the men, yesterday’s post analyzes the women’s standings.

Current Situation

Let’s start with an overview of the ranking in mid-June (click on the graph for a higher-res version):

Based on the projected cutoff around 3.500 points the graph shows six categories:

• Automatic Qualifiers: Kona winners of the last five years and the winners of the Regional Championships receive an automatic slot. Past Kona winners have to validate their slot with an Ironman finish. (Both Jan Frodeno and Patrick Lange still have to do this.) The AQs do not count for the “points slots”.
• Safe: These athletes are more than 300 points above the projected cutoff and can be considered safe for a July slot. There are currently 19 male athletes in this category.
• Safe not validated: These athletes have enough points (usually from a good Kona result the previous year) but still need an Ironman finish to be eligible for a slot. There are another five athletes in this category.
• Bubble: These athletes (currently twelve) are close the cutoff and might be fine for a slot – but there could still be a number of athletes that can overtake them and they can still fall out of the slots.
• Close: These athletes will have to race again and improve their total in order to have a chance for a slot – another 13 athletes.
• Close, not validated: There are three athletes in this category, but Ben Kanute and Sam Appleton are unlikely to race an Ironman this season.

There is a total of 40 “points slots” for the men at the end of July. If you add up the number of athletes in the different categories (leaving aside the AQs) you already end up with more than 50, so you can see that the race is very tight.

Upcoming Races

Ironman has released entry lists and start lists for all the remaining Ironman races up to the end of July. As always, they are easily accessible through my Race Posts showing the entries with their current KPR points and the seedings for races with a closed start list.

The following table shows an overview of the remaining Ironman races and the currently registered athletes currently without a secure Kona slot. (Of course, most races have some more high-profile athletes on the start list, and athletes can still register for most of these races.) I’ve also listed a few “Additional Athletes” who aren’t shown in the graph above but who still have a chance for a slot:

Race	Racing for a Slot	Additional Athletes
France	Andrej Vistica (2.960) TJ Tollakson (2.575)	Romain Guillaume (2.435)
Austria	David McNamee (7.870) Andy Potts (5.050) Michael Weiss (3.435) Thiago Vinhal (3.180)	Miquel Blanchard Tinto (2.325)
Frankfurt (P-4000)	Patrick Lange (AQ) Jan Frodeno (AQ) Patrik Nilsson (3.825)	Tyler Butterfield (1.830) Philipp Koutny (1.730) David Plese (1.530) Andi Böcherer (1.390)
UK	Will Clarke (2.905)
Whistler	Joe Gambles (2.885)	Sam Long (1.575)
Switzerland	Jan van Berkel (3.390)
Hamburg		Miquel Blanchard Tinto (2.325) Horst Reichel (1.445)

A few of the athletes haven’t announced their plans yet (James Cunnama, Bart Aernouts) or have been forced to change them (Boris Stein who planned to race IM France but had a bike crash a few days out and won’t be able to race).

As you can see, the number of athletes that aren’t on my graph but still have a chance to qualify is quite large. There are also a few more 70.3s on the calendar that may not have many points but can still make a difference when things are getting close, so it’s hard to tell at this point who will actually qualify. Some athletes might also decide to look for a race in August to secure one of the additional ten male slots that are even harder to predict.

With only seven Ironman races remaining before the first cutoff at the end of July, it’s a good time to have a close look at the current qualifying situation. This first post looks at the situation for the women, another post analyzes the men’s standings.

Current Situation

First let’s have an overview (click on the graph for a higher-res version):

Based on the projected cutoff around 4.400 points the graph shows six categories:

• Automatic Qualifiers: Kona winners of the last five years and the winners of the Regional Championships receive an automatic slot. Past Kona winners have to validate their slot with an Ironman finish. They do not count for the “points slots”.
• Safe: These athletes are more than 300 points above the projected cutoff and can be considered safe for a July slot. There are 14 female athletes in this category, but Liz Lyles has announced her retirement and is expected to decline her slot.
• Safe not validated: These athletes have enough points (usually from a good Kona result the previous year) but still need an Ironman finish to be eligible for a slot. There are another three athletes in this category.
• Bubble: These athletes (currently five) are close the cutoff and might be fine for a slot – but there could still be a number of athletes that can overtake them and they can fall out of the slots.
• Close: These athletes will have to race again and improve their total in order to have a chance for a slot. One of these six athletes is Yvonne Van Vlerken who has said that she’s not interested in racing Kona again.
• Close, not validated: One more athlete in this category – at least an Ironman finish is needed, and Emma needs to add a good number of points as well.

There is a total of 28 “points slots” for the women at the end of July. If you add up the number of athletes in the different categories (leaving aside the AQs) you end up with 29 (maybe minus two for Liz and Yvonne), so you can see that the race is very tight.

Upcoming Races

Ironman has released entry lists and start lists for all the remaining Ironman races up to the end of July. As always, they are easily accessible through my Race Posts showing the entries with their current KPR points and the seedings for races with a closed start list.

The following table shows an overview of the remaining Ironman races and the registered athletes currently without a secure Kona slot. (Of course, most races have some more high-profile athletes on the start list.) I’ve also listed a few “Additional Athletes” who aren’t shown in the graph above but who still have a chance for a slot (e.g. Eva Wutti who will likely attempt the “double” in Austria and Frankfurt or the Ironman rookies Sarah True, Laura Philipp and Anne Haug expected to race in Frankfurt):

Race	Racing for a Slot	Additional Athletes
France	Manon Genet (4.120) Lisa Roberts (4.000)	Eva Wutti (1.165)
Austria	Emma Pallant (3.620)	Lisa Huetthaler (3.080) Sara Svensk (2.410)
Frankfurt (P-4000)	Daniela Ryf (AQ) Sarah Crowley (6.480) Jodie Robertson ( 3.980) Rachel McBride (3.795)	Sarah True (3.270) Laura Philipp (3180) Dimity-Lee Duke (2.660) Bruna Mahn (2.655) Saleta Castro (2.410) Anne Haug (2.025) Katharina Grohmann (2.020) Eva Wutti (1.165)
UK		Laura Philipp (3.180) Sara Svensk (2.410)
Lake Placid	Heather Jackson (6.975)	Meredith Kessler (3.205) Jen Annett (3.140) Kelsey Withrow (2.560)
Switzerland	Annabel Luxford (5.215)	Sara Svensk (2.410)
Hamburg		Laura Philipp (3.180) Daniela Sämmler (2.460) Katharina Grohmann (2.020) Anja Beranek (2.000)

As you can see, the number of athletes that aren’t on my graph but still have a chance to qualify is quite large. There are also a few more 70.3s on the calendar that may not have many points but can still make a difference when things are getting close, so it’s hard to tell at this point who will actually qualify. Some athletes (likely including Liz Blatchford or Asa Lundstroem) may also miss July qualifying but then look for another race in August to secure one of the seven female slots in August that are even harder to predict.