Challenge Wanaka 2016 (Feb 20th) – Predictions

This will be the tenth time that Challenge Wanaka is held. It has established itself as the traditional first Ironman distance race in the calendar year. It usually has a small Pro field, but there are always some good athletes competing on the beautiful course.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2007	Luke Dragstra (CAN)	08:54:17	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:38:26
2008	Marc Pschebizin (GER)	08:47:49	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:33:46
2009	Chris McDonald (AUS)	08:37:41	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:28:27
2010	Richard Ussher (NZL)	08:34:41	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:28:57
2011	Jamie Whyte (NZL)	09:03:53	Belinda Granger (AUS)	10:26:17
2012	Aaron Farlow (AUS)	08:41:53	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:44:06
2013	Dylan McNeice (NZL)	08:51:18	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:24:31
2014	Dylan McNeice (NZL)	08:38:48	Candice Hammond (NZL)	09:33:54
2015	Dylan McNeice (NZL)	08:37:14	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:31:51

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Dylan McNeice	NZL	00:45:33	04:47:13	03:00:29	08:37:14
2	Dougal Allan	NZL	01:02:41	04:30:51	03:03:08	08:40:06
3	Courtney Ogden	AUS	00:50:56	04:50:51	03:02:59	08:49:46

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Gina Crawford	NZL	00:50:55	05:12:39	03:22:25	09:31:51
2	Laura Siddall	GBR	00:57:13	05:12:44	03:28:43	09:43:46
3	Michelle Bremer	NZL	00:56:49	05:16:44	03:34:28	09:52:16

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:34:41	Richard Ussher	2010-01-16
Swim	overall	00:45:33	Dylan McNeice	2015-02-22
Bike	overall	04:30:51	Dougal Allan	2015-02-22
Run	overall	02:48:04	Marc Pschebizin	2008-01-19
Total	female	09:24:31	Gina Crawford	2013-01-19
Swim	female	00:50:01	Gina Crawford	2008-01-19
Bike	female	05:08:30	Gina Crawford	2013-01-19
Run	female	03:08:59	Rebekah Keat	2010-01-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Wanaka is – 05:30.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Wanaka

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2007	03:50	00:42	-06:30	04:29	7	03:50	00:42	-06:30	04:29
2008	00:37	01:11	-09:42	01:33	16 of 17	02:13	00:56	-08:06	03:01
2009	04:38	-03:36	-01:31	03:57	12 of 13	03:02	-00:35	-05:55	03:20
2010	00:17	-01:47	-01:12	02:41	15	02:20	-00:53	-04:44	03:10
2011	-26:34	-02:44	-22:30	-03:42	15	-03:26	-01:15	-08:17	01:48
2012	-08:53	-01:11	-07:26	-03:22	19	-04:21	-01:14	-08:09	00:56
2013	-07:00	-05:40	-09:02	02:57	15	-04:44	-01:52	-08:16	01:13
2014	-04:15	-01:03	-02:54	00:27	10 of 18	-04:40	-01:46	-07:36	01:08
2015	-12:09	00:20	-04:28	-07:28	23 of 27	-05:30	-01:32	-07:15	00:10

Prize Money

Challenge Wanaka has a total prize purse of 80.000 NZD.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	2	Dougal Allan	NZL	08:37:41	08:40:11	01:03:05	04:34:17	02:55:18	52
2	1	Dylan McNeice	NZL	08:42:03	08:51:47	00:46:21	04:52:35	02:58:07	89
3	3	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:42:57	08:36:23	00:55:09	04:44:24	02:58:25	36
4	4	Maik Twelsiek	GER	08:44:11	08:38:23	00:51:36	04:38:40	03:08:56	44
5	5	Per Bittner	GER	08:45:10	08:40:12	00:50:30	04:48:28	03:01:12	53
6	6	Matthew Russell	USA	08:50:02	08:48:20	00:58:32	04:49:11	02:57:19	76
7	10	Chris Sanson	NZL	09:03:33	09:14:16	00:58:26	04:58:31	03:01:35	186
8	13	Sean Donnelly	GER	09:21:40	09:45:26	00:49:03	04:58:23	03:29:13	(310)
9	7	Brad Williams	USA	09:29:52	09:54:40	00:58:17	05:06:07	03:20:28	(341)
10	11	Dan McGuigan	AUS	09:41:09	09:59:51	01:03:41	05:01:45	03:30:44	362
11	12	Graham O’Grady	NZL	09:42:52	09:43:22	00:47:23	05:00:19	03:50:10	(305)
12	8	Matt Randall	NZL	09:59:10	10:01:54	01:00:34	05:04:35	03:49:01	(366)
	9	Allister Caird	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Exp. Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	50	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:27:10	09:29:29	00:53:04	05:17:38	03:11:28	23
2	53	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	09:27:54	09:17:31	01:00:09	05:09:57	03:12:48	9
3	51	Laura Siddall	GBR	09:47:32	10:01:37	00:59:22	05:18:30	03:24:40	90
4	52	Simone Maier	GER	09:54:30	09:57:44	01:06:20	05:25:24	03:17:46	82
5	55	Anna Cleaver	NZL	10:02:34	10:13:47	00:54:08	05:31:23	03:32:03	(117)
6	59	Julia Grant	NZL	10:08:26	10:21:29	00:59:21	05:35:07	03:28:58	(136)
7	58	Tamsyn Hayes	NZL	10:10:22	10:17:39	00:59:51	05:25:04	03:40:27	(126)
8	57	April Gellatly	USA	10:12:20	10:21:48	00:57:44	05:35:46	03:33:50	(136)
9	54	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:24:38	10:23:36	01:03:21	05:43:15	03:33:02	143
	60	Rachael Paxton	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The male race promises to be very exciting – there are six athletes that are relatively close together, each with different strengths. Three-time winner and defending champion Dylan McNeice will almost certainly lead after the swim, but then a group of strong riders (notably Dougal Allen, Maik Twelsiek and Joe Skipper) will try to make things interesting and put pressure on Dylan. The outcome of the race will probably depend on who ends up with the best run. Last year, that was where Dylan ended up winning the race.

• Dougal Allan: 28% (3-1)
• Dylan McNeice: 18% (5-1)
• Joe Skipper: 15% (6-1)
• Per Bittner: 13% (7-1)
• Matthew Russell: 13% (7-1)
• Maik Twelsiek: 13% (7-1)

Female Race Participants

There are two clear favorites on the female side: Gina Crawford has won the race six times and holds the course record. She’ll be challenged by Yvonne Van Vlerken who could be the first female winner that’s not from Australia or New Zealand.

• Gina Crawford: 50% (1-1)
• Yvonne Van Vlerken: 41% (1-1)
• Laura Siddall: 4% (22-1)
• Simone Maier: 3% (37-1)