Ironman UK 2014 (July 20th) – Predictions

Update (July 17th): Pauk Hawkins tweeted that he won’t be starting and is focused on IM Sweden.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Bryan Rhodes (NZL) 08:42:11 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:37:56
2006 Frank Heldoorn () 08:36:34 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:37:41
2007 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 08:35:57 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:36:13
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:53:59 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:49:07
2009 Philip Graves (GBR) 08:45:52 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:34:00
2010 Fraser Cartmell (GBR) 08:40:18 Yvette Grice (GBR) 10:01:03
2011 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:24:34 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:19:04
2012 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:55:11 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 10:08:44
2013 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:45:48 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:29:12

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:43:59 04:56:45 03:01:20 08:45:48
2 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:44:03 04:56:50 03:04:57 08:49:25
3 Joe Skipper GBR 00:49:37 05:00:59 02:57:11 08:51:49

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:52:30 05:22:13 03:10:22 09:29:12
2 Joanna Carritt GBR 00:55:57 05:40:36 03:24:00 10:05:17
3 Amy Forshaw GBR 00:56:27 05:54:21 03:30:15 10:28:27

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:24:34 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Swim overall 00:43:35 Fraser Cartmell 2010-08-01
Bike overall 04:45:31 Frank Heldoorn 2006-08-16
Run overall 02:41:46 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Total female 09:19:04 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31
Swim female 00:45:34 Dede Griesbauer 2006-08-16
Bike female 05:19:03 Dede Griesbauer 2006-08-16
Run female 02:41:57 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is 04:29.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03 18 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03
2007 11:09 03:07 -04:13 10:14 28 10:49 04:01 00:13 08:08
2008 -01:04 01:12 -14:08 04:11 21 06:51 03:05 -04:34 06:49
2009 02:27 -03:07 -10:16 10:41 16 05:45 01:32 -06:00 07:47
2010 01:15 04:32 -24:08 09:31 12 04:51 02:08 -09:37 08:08
2011 10:58 04:43 -14:36 23:11 15 05:52 02:34 -10:27 10:38
2012 -02:46 00:00 -10:21 02:21 8 04:38 02:12 -10:26 09:27
2013 03:23 04:01 -12:25 03:14 13 04:29 02:25 -10:41 08:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM UK has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:34:25 08:38:43 00:50:46 04:45:10 02:57:21 40
2 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:43:46 08:48:09 00:52:23 04:41:04 03:05:21 65
3 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:45:47 08:50:11 00:47:51 04:50:00 03:05:53 73
4 Swen Sundberg GER 08:46:12 08:50:36 00:52:16 04:45:13 03:08:33 75
5 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:47:48 08:52:13 00:47:10 04:44:01 03:14:18 85
6 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:48:06 08:52:31 00:48:50 04:51:16 03:11:41 88
7 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:49:57 08:54:23 00:49:07 04:44:19 03:15:41 99
8 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:51:49 08:56:16 00:50:58 04:53:56 03:02:49 109
9 Joe Skipper GBR 08:53:12 08:57:40 00:53:50 04:47:19 03:04:48 114
10 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:07:11 09:11:46 00:47:17 04:52:27 03:28:43 179
11 Victor Debil-Caux FRA 09:10:44 09:15:20 00:53:39 04:47:55 03:16:49 (194)
12 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:17:03 09:21:43 01:03:40 05:01:31 03:00:36 (209)
13 James Brown GBR 09:21:32 09:26:14 01:01:33 05:01:24 03:13:39 231
14 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:22:41 09:27:23 00:59:08 05:32:08 03:22:42 (235)
15 Anders Wagner DEN 09:23:22 09:28:05 01:03:00 05:00:03 03:03:23 (240)
16 Craig Twigg GBR 09:33:26 09:38:14 00:53:03 04:55:59 03:39:56 282
17 Steve Clark GBR 09:47:44 09:52:39 00:58:38 05:05:36 03:26:28 (341)
Roman Krutina n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Joerie Vansteelant BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Katja Konschak GER 09:53:17 09:58:15 00:52:16 05:28:59 03:27:10 89
2 Keiko Tanaka JPN 10:03:06 10:08:09 00:55:50 05:28:50 03:32:19 101
3 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:15:23 10:20:32 01:02:44 05:31:12 03:35:53 132
4 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:32:30 10:37:47 01:03:56 05:38:56 03:39:13 147
5 Laura Bostock GBR 11:39:35 11:45:26 01:02:53 06:15:25 03:53:53 (162)
Tamsin Lewis GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Lenka Kralova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Cyril Viennot: 29% (3-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 20% (4-1)
  • Axel Zeebroek: 16% (5-1)
  • Georg Potrebitsch: 11% (8-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 9% (10-1)
  • Swen Sundberg: 5% (19-1)
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 4% (22-1)
  • Scott Neyedli: 4% (26-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Katja Konschak: 55% (1-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 22% (4-1)
  • Joanna Carritt: 18% (5-1)
  • Amy Forshaw: 4% (26-1)

KPR Situation

Men

There is a number of athletes that are able to make it to Kona with a good result in the UK:

  • Axel Zeebroek – 2.790
  • Cyril Viennot – 2.240
  • Harry Wiltshire – 2.080
  • Scott Neyedli – 2.000
  • Stephen Bayliss – 1.690
Remember that the men need about 3.500 points to qualify.

Women

My projected Kona cutoff for the women is 4.900 points, so only Katja Konschak (3.390) in a position to move into a position to qualify.

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