IM New Zealand 2013 – Predictions (Updated)

Update: I goofed up importing the participants, so I missed a few athletes. The most notable athlete is Meredith Kessler, who clearly changes the women’s race. Sorry, MBK!

(Photo provided by Jay Prasuhn)

TOP 3 from 2011

Last year, the race couldn’t occur as planned: On Saturday it was impossible to have a race, so the race haas to be moved to Sunday and shortened to a 70.3. This race was won by Marino Vanhoenacker and Meredith Kessler.

Here are the results from the last “full” Ironman in New Zealand from 2011:

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Cameron Brown	NZL	00:50:21	04:43:04	02:52:09	08:31:07
2	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	00:47:14	04:51:36	02:57:52	08:41:54
3	Mathias Hecht	SWI	00:47:19	04:48:22	03:04:19	08:45:36

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Samantha Warriner	NZL	00:50:30	05:10:39	03:20:52	09:28:24
2	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	00:52:43	05:31:24	03:01:06	09:31:33
3	Joanna Lawn	NZL	00:52:43	05:22:10	03:10:54	09:31:53

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:18:05	Cameron Brown	2009-03-07
Swim	overall	00:45:02	Kieran Doe	2008-03-01
Bike	overall	04:35:11	Torbjorn Sindballe	2007-03-03
Run	overall	02:43:10	Cameron Brown	2009-03-07
Total	female	09:14:35	Joanna Lawn	2010-03-06
Swim	female	00:46:30	Monica Byrn	2005-05-03
Bike	female	05:01:17	Emi Shiono	2008-03-01
Run	female	03:01:06	Mirinda Carfrae	2011-03-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 04:14.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year	Adjustment	# of Athletes	Rating
2005	n/a	4	n/a
2007	04:40	18	04:40
2008	05:54	31	05:17
2009	08:37	28	06:24
2010	06:44	17	06:29
2011	-04:43	20	04:14
2012	n/a	n/a	n/a

KPR points and Price Money

IM New Zealand has 1000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 50k$. For the age groupers, there are 40 Kona slots available.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:22:15	08:26:14	9
2	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	08:32:29	08:36:32	28
3	Marko Albert	EST	08:39:22	08:43:29	54
4	Courtney Ogden	AUS	08:39:56	08:44:03	56
5	Keegan Williams	NZL	08:53:38	08:57:51	121
6	Kevin Taddonio	USA	08:55:08	08:59:22	133
7	Carl Read	NZL	08:58:29	09:02:45	151
8	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:00:51	09:05:08	164
9	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:03:28	09:07:46	180
10	Ernst Moser	AUT	09:04:07	09:08:25	183
11	Shanon Stallard	NZL	09:04:18	09:08:37	184
12	Simon Cochrane	NZL	09:06:25	09:10:45	200
13	Ben Cotter	CAN	09:11:48	09:16:10	226
14	James Bowstead	NZL	09:30:16	09:34:47	348
15	Daiki Masuda	JPN	09:54:52	09:59:35	486
16	Kodo Hiramatsu	JPN	10:04:44	10:09:31	532
17	Chris Sanson	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
18	Jacson Kluts	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
19	Bevan Docherty	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
20	David Bowden	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:23:24	09:27:52	16
2	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:25:32	09:30:01	18
3	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:30:36	09:35:07	30
4	Candice Hammond	NZL	09:35:45	09:40:18	41
5	Monica Dalidowicz	CAN	10:24:35	10:29:32	175
6	Megumi Shigaki	JPN	10:51:54	10:57:04	212
7	Anna Ross	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
8	Melanie Burke	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
9	Janine Sax	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on his previous results, Cam Brown is the clear favorite, but the question “Is he to old to win another one?” always comes up for him in Taupo. For fun, here is a “different” photo of Brown, Cameron:

Cam’s biggest threats come from two countrymen Terenzo Bozzone (back from injury and a DNS in Auckland after smashing into a car door) and Bevan Docherty (moving up from ITU and starting in his first full Ironman):

• Cameron Brown: 62% (1-1)
• Terenzo Bozzone: 14% (6-1)
• Courtney Ogden: 8% (12-1)
• Marko Albert: 7% (13-1)
• Scott Defilippis: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

Now that I’m correctly including Meredith Kessler, the women’s race is much closer. Gina Crawford is still my top pick, her rating is a little bit better, and she is a previous winner in New Zealand. It’ll be an exciting run in Taupo:

• Gina Crawford: 44% (1-1)
• Meredith Kessler: 39% (2-1)
• Carrie Lester: 13% (7-1)
• Candice Hammond: 3% (29-1)