IM New Zealand 2013 – Predictions (Updated)

Update: I goofed up importing the participants, so I missed a few athletes. The most notable athlete is Meredith Kessler, who clearly changes the women’s race. Sorry, MBK!

MeredithKessler
(Photo provided by Jay Prasuhn)

TOP 3 from 2011

Last year, the race couldn’t occur as planned: On Saturday it was impossible to have a race, so the race haas to be moved to Sunday and shortened to a 70.3. This race was won by Marino Vanhoenacker and Meredith Kessler.

Here are the results from the last “full” Ironman in New Zealand from 2011:

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Cameron Brown NZL 00:50:21 04:43:04 02:52:09 08:31:07
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:47:14 04:51:36 02:57:52 08:41:54
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 00:47:19 04:48:22 03:04:19 08:45:36

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Samantha Warriner NZL 00:50:30 05:10:39 03:20:52 09:28:24
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:52:43 05:31:24 03:01:06 09:31:33
3 Joanna Lawn NZL 00:52:43 05:22:10 03:10:54 09:31:53

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:18:05 Cameron Brown 2009-03-07
Swim overall 00:45:02 Kieran Doe 2008-03-01
Bike overall 04:35:11 Torbjorn Sindballe 2007-03-03
Run overall 02:43:10 Cameron Brown 2009-03-07
Total female 09:14:35 Joanna Lawn 2010-03-06
Swim female 00:46:30 Monica Byrn 2005-05-03
Bike female 05:01:17 Emi Shiono 2008-03-01
Run female 03:01:06 Mirinda Carfrae 2011-03-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 04:14.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year Adjustment # of Athletes Rating
2005 n/a 4 n/a
2007 04:40 18 04:40
2008 05:54 31 05:17
2009 08:37 28 06:24
2010 06:44 17 06:29
2011 -04:43 20 04:14
2012 n/a n/a n/a

KPR points and Price Money

IM New Zealand has 1000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 50k$. For the age groupers, there are 40 Kona slots available.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:22:15 08:26:14 9
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:32:29 08:36:32 28
3 Marko Albert EST 08:39:22 08:43:29 54
4 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:39:56 08:44:03 56
5 Keegan Williams NZL 08:53:38 08:57:51 121
6 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:55:08 08:59:22 133
7 Carl Read NZL 08:58:29 09:02:45 151
8 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:00:51 09:05:08 164
9 Scott Defilippis USA 09:03:28 09:07:46 180
10 Ernst Moser AUT 09:04:07 09:08:25 183
11 Shanon Stallard NZL 09:04:18 09:08:37 184
12 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:06:25 09:10:45 200
13 Ben Cotter CAN 09:11:48 09:16:10 226
14 James Bowstead NZL 09:30:16 09:34:47 348
15 Daiki Masuda JPN 09:54:52 09:59:35 486
16 Kodo Hiramatsu JPN 10:04:44 10:09:31 532
17 Chris Sanson NZL n/a unrated n/a
18 Jacson Kluts NZL n/a unrated n/a
19 Bevan Docherty NZL n/a unrated n/a
20 David Bowden NZL n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Gina Crawford NZL 09:23:24 09:27:52 16
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:25:32 09:30:01 18
3 Carrie Lester AUS 09:30:36 09:35:07 30
4 Candice Hammond NZL 09:35:45 09:40:18 41
5 Monica Dalidowicz CAN 10:24:35 10:29:32 175
6 Megumi Shigaki JPN 10:51:54 10:57:04 212
7 Anna Ross NZL n/a unrated n/a
8 Melanie Burke NZL n/a unrated n/a
9 Janine Sax NZL n/a unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on his previous results, Cam Brown is the clear favorite, but the question “Is he to old to win another one?” always comes up for him in Taupo. For fun, here is a “different” photo of Brown, Cameron:

BrownCameron

Cam’s biggest threats come from two countrymen Terenzo Bozzone (back from injury and a DNS in Auckland after smashing into a car door) and Bevan Docherty (moving up from ITU and starting in his first full Ironman):

  • Cameron Brown: 62% (1-1)
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 14% (6-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 8% (12-1)
  • Marko Albert: 7% (13-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

Now that I’m correctly including Meredith Kessler, the women’s race is much closer. Gina Crawford is still my top pick, her rating is a little bit better, and she is a previous winner in New Zealand. It’ll be an exciting run in Taupo:

  • Gina Crawford: 44% (1-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 39% (2-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 13% (7-1)
  • Candice Hammond: 3% (29-1)

2 Responses to IM New Zealand 2013 – Predictions (Updated)

  1. Anthony February 21, 2013 at 4:17 am #

    Thorsten – Isn’t Kessler racing as well?

    • Thorsten February 21, 2013 at 7:45 am #

      Yes, of course. I goofed up importing the participants. Post updated.

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