IM New Zealand 2014 (March 1st) – Predictions

With IM New Zealand, we have the first WTC Ironman race for 2014. The race has its 30th anniversary, offering some extra prize money, and as far as I know also some extra agegroup Kona slots.

Update: Thanks to Mareen Hufe for a slightly updated start list, showing that Shiau-Yu Li is no longer starting and allowing me to update my slight error in the bib numbers.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

The 2013 race saw Bevan Docherty ending Cam Brown’s streak of winning full-distance races in New Zealand:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bevan Docherty NZL 00:45:44 04:35:06 02:49:46 08:15:35
2 Marko Albert EST 00:45:34 04:38:34 02:56:56 08:25:30
3 Cameron Brown NZL 00:50:09 04:41:52 02:57:16 08:34:28

Docherty Run

Female Race Results

After she won the 2012 shortened race in New Zealand, Meredith Kessler also won the 2013 full-distance race:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:47:37 05:04:44 03:19:24 09:17:10
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:51:44 05:08:17 03:14:54 09:20:54
3 Candice Hammond NZL 01:02:37 05:15:00 03:13:20 09:35:52

KesslerBikeLongHoriz

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:35 Bevan Docherty 2013-03-02
Swim overall 00:45:02 Kieran Doe 2008-03-01
Bike overall 04:35:06 Bevan Docherty 2013-03-02
Run overall 02:43:10 Cameron Brown 2009-03-07
Total female 09:14:35 Joanna Lawn 2010-03-06
Swim female 00:46:30 Monica Byrn 2005-05-03
Bike female 05:01:17 Emi Shiono 2008-03-01
Run female 03:01:06 Mirinda Carfrae 2011-03-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 04:59.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2007 06:10 01:03 00:56 05:23 18 06:10 01:03 00:56 05:23
2008 10:28 01:34 03:15 04:32 31 08:19 01:18 02:05 04:57
2009 07:19 00:01 04:20 02:53 27 07:59 00:52 02:50 04:16
2010 06:02 01:02 03:45 03:40 17 07:30 00:55 03:04 04:07
2011 -02:06 00:29 00:36 -01:04 20 05:34 00:50 02:34 03:05
2013 02:04 00:43 03:56 01:29 17 04:59 00:49 02:48 02:49

KPR points and Prize Money

IM New Zealand has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 3 Cameron Brown NZL 08:24:17 08:28:59 00:49:23 04:41:26 02:54:03 13
2 1 Bevan Docherty NZL 08:27:48 08:32:32 00:46:48 04:41:33 02:52:49 17
3 10 Tom Lowe GBR 08:29:31 08:34:16 00:54:38 04:37:48 02:54:25 25
4 4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:30:33 08:35:19 00:47:33 04:45:26 02:58:56 28
5 5 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:35:21 08:40:09 00:50:29 04:44:21 02:59:45 40
6 2 Marko Albert EST 08:35:32 08:40:20 00:46:50 04:49:18 03:00:39 42
7 27 Philip Graves GBR 08:44:37 08:49:31 00:47:48 04:43:09 03:13:18 73
8 9 Daniel Halksworth GBR 08:45:36 08:50:30 00:47:34 04:48:11 03:07:23 78
9 7 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:49:44 08:54:40 00:49:01 04:43:27 03:16:49 99
10 8 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:51:52 08:56:50 00:54:48 04:52:36 03:02:59 106
11 31 Carl Read NZL 08:52:58 08:57:56 00:53:11 04:59:24 03:02:06 116
12 6 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:57:44 09:02:45 00:48:06 04:51:48 03:18:26 138
13 24 Guy Crawford NZL 09:00:18 09:05:20 00:48:45 04:46:13 03:29:40 146
14 23 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:10:25 09:15:33 00:53:35 05:05:59 03:09:53 185
15 32 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:12:07 09:17:16 00:48:22 04:59:29 03:25:05 188
16 22 Matt Burgess NZL 09:14:31 09:19:41 00:49:56 04:49:27 03:24:39 195
17 33 Chris Sanson NZL 09:14:58 09:20:08 00:54:50 05:02:26 03:10:28 196
18 21 Johan Borg AUS 09:19:21 09:24:34 00:54:15 04:54:47 03:30:57 207
19 35 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:28:07 09:33:25 00:47:51 04:56:18 03:35:08 237
20 34 Shanon Stallard NZL 09:38:30 09:43:54 00:55:46 05:12:00 03:23:14 275
21 30 Daiki Masuda JPN 09:43:46 09:49:13 unrated unrated unrated 294
22 36 Jon Woods NZL 09:47:25 09:52:54 00:56:39 05:05:14 03:39:11 309
25 Damien Decas FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
29 Brodie Madgwick NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
26 Vincent Depuiset FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 12 Gina Crawford NZL 09:21:16 09:26:30 00:51:53 05:14:22 03:13:21 10
2 11 Meredith Kessler USA 09:22:26 09:27:41 00:50:26 05:10:23 03:20:27 12
3 16 Mareen Hufe GER 09:32:52 09:38:12 01:00:37 05:06:58 03:25:01 29
4 13 Candice Hammond NZL 09:33:17 09:38:38 01:01:01 05:14:39 03:16:33 30
5 18 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:38:48 09:44:12 00:58:07 05:15:46 03:27:49 45
6 15 Bree Wee USA 09:44:23 09:49:50 00:54:00 05:18:02 03:30:12 57
7 20 Melanie Burke NZL 09:57:29 10:03:03 01:07:46 05:20:08 03:27:17 88
8 14 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:58:21 10:03:56 00:56:51 05:24:27 03:37:07 90
9 17 Keiko Tanaka JAP 09:58:36 10:04:11 00:54:20 05:27:14 03:22:26 91
10 38 Julia Grant NZL 10:05:35 10:11:14 00:58:20 05:31:46 03:28:46 98
11 39 Celia Kuch GER 10:07:58 10:13:38 01:03:09 05:24:08 03:37:20 102
12 43 Emi Sakai JPN 10:09:50 10:15:31 01:04:54 05:19:54 03:38:34 110
13 37 Erin Furness NZL 10:10:37 10:16:19 01:01:40 05:29:28 03:28:08 112
14 44 Janine Sax NZL 10:12:07 10:17:49 01:01:22 05:26:47 03:36:29 114
15 42 Meghan Newcomer USA 10:20:08 10:25:55 00:56:24 05:39:26 03:31:41 126
16 40 Shiao-yu Li TWN 10:25:29 10:31:19 01:08:57 05:34:33 03:26:18 128
17 45 Jodie Scott AUS 10:29:05 10:34:57 00:56:10 05:36:37 03:55:32 131
18 46 Megumi Shigaki JPN 10:53:41 10:59:47 00:59:01 05:40:06 04:12:50 141
19 Anna Cleaver NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
41 Larisa Marsh NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The top three from last year are back for the 2014 race. Even though Bevan Docherty has finished only one Ironman race, his performance last year was so impressive that I have him as the race favorite. A few months I would have written off Cam Brown, but his preparation seems to be going well and I think that he’ll try to challenge for the win one more time. His chances are slightly lower than Bevan’s but his last really good Ironman race was his 2nd place in Melbourne 2012. Besides these three, there are also Tim Van Berkel (great runner who had the best 2013 run), Tom Lowe (who has raced two good Challenge races at the end of 2013), and Terenzo Bozzone (who’s on fire in 70.3s and is still looking for his break-through IM race).

Last year’s second place

  • Bevan Docherty: 27% (3-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 22% (4-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 18% (5-1)
  • Marko Albert: 14% (6-1)
  • Tom Lowe: 11% (8-1)
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 7% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, the race is again going to be between last year’s winner Meredith Kessler (my clear favorite) and last year’s 2nd Gina Crawford. „MBK“ has taken a long IM break (at least for her: her last IM was Arizona in November) while Gina has switched coaches and is now more focused on being in top shape for Kona. Behind these two, there are Candice Hammond (recent winner of Challenge Wanaka, beating Gina) and Mareen Hufe (recently 2nd in Western Australia) who will fight for the final podium spot, but would also love to upset the two favorites:

  • Meredith Kessler: 52% (1-1)
  • Gina Crawford: 31% (2-1)
  • Candice Hammond: 9% (10-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 5% (20-1)

Photo Credits: Eric Willis, Jay Prasuhn

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