Ironman Florida 2014 (Nov 1st) – Predictions

Updates

• Andrew Starykowicz was injured before Kona and seems to need a longer break to heal properly. He is no longer on the start list.
• Tim O’Donnell hasn’t announced his final plans, but he appears to favor Arizona for his fall IM and is off the Florida list.
• Thomas Gerlach is also focusing on Arizona.
• Leanda Cave announced that she ended her season with a bad cold after racing 70.3 Miami.
• Jessie Donavan will be starting at IM Fortaleza.
• Mike Schifferle, Allan Villanueva and Christoph Bastie are also off the list, as are Kathleen Calkins, Uli Brömme, Carolin Lehrieder, Katya Meyers and Sharon Gallant.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:28:26	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:33:09
2006	Jan Raphael (GER)	08:22:44	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:28:28
2007	Stephan Vuckovic (GER)	08:21:29	Nina Kraft (GER)	09:05:35
2008	Tom Evans (CAN)	08:07:59	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:07:48
2009	Kirill Kotshegarov (EST)	08:24:29	Sofie Goos (BEL)	09:08:38
2010	James Cunnama (ZAF)	08:15:59	Jessica Jacobs (USA)	09:07:49
2011	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	07:59:42	Jessica Jacobs (USA)	08:55:10
2012	Andrew Starykowicz (USA)	08:06:17	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:51:35
2013	Victor Del Corral (ESP)	07:53:12	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:43:07

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Victor Del Corral	ESP	00:55:23	04:15:15	02:37:29	07:53:12
2	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	00:49:53	04:02:17	02:58:18	07:55:22
3	Filip Ospaly	CZE	00:48:06	04:23:53	02:41:17	07:58:44

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	01:00:14	04:35:49	03:01:55	08:43:07
2	Ashley Clifford	USA	00:55:21	04:51:20	02:56:35	08:49:03
3	Erika Csomor	HUN	01:02:13	04:45:09	03:03:32	08:56:41

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:53:12	Victor Del Corral	2013-11-02
Swim	overall	00:44:36	John Flanagan	2011-11-05
Bike	overall	04:02:17	Andrew Starykowicz	2013-11-02
Run	overall	02:37:29	Victor Del Corral	2013-11-02
Total	female	08:43:07	Yvonne Van Vlerken	2013-11-02
Swim	female	00:50:26	Tereza Macel	2007-11-03
Bike	female	04:35:49	Yvonne Van Vlerken	2013-11-02
Run	female	02:53:26	Jessica Jacobs	2011-11-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Florida is 21:44.

Race Adjustments for IM Florida

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	15:03	-00:58	07:51	-01:11	27	15:03	-00:58	07:51	-01:11
2006	13:10	-03:00	05:27	04:34	40	14:07	-01:59	06:39	01:41
2007	22:23	00:01	14:36	05:11	69	16:52	-01:19	09:18	02:51
2008	23:10	-00:38	14:09	04:22	44	18:27	-01:09	10:31	03:14
2009	17:40	-02:03	15:44	04:18	29	18:17	-01:20	11:34	03:27
2010	15:13	-00:07	11:43	04:44	33	17:47	-01:08	11:35	03:39
2011	24:57	-00:25	15:37	04:12	32	18:48	-01:02	12:10	03:44
2012	22:39	-03:01	23:50	00:30	36	19:17	-01:16	13:37	03:20
2013	41:17	-01:33	27:00	09:10	54	21:44	-01:18	15:06	03:59

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Florida has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	1	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	08:11:27	08:41:19	00:49:02	04:11:44	03:05:41	34
2	2	Ben Hoffman	USA	08:14:20	08:35:18	00:50:21	04:25:20	02:53:38	21
3	9	Maxim Kriat	UKR	08:17:37	08:39:46	00:51:42	04:30:29	02:50:27	(29)
4	3	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	08:18:28	08:48:33	00:48:20	04:27:35	02:57:33	52
5	6	Tom Lowe	GBR	08:22:00	08:37:47	00:57:24	04:26:57	02:52:39	26
6	4	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:23:03	08:53:28	00:51:01	04:29:37	02:57:25	71
7	15	Alberto Casadei	ITA	08:31:06	08:59:38	00:49:33	04:35:51	03:00:41	(104)
8	10	Christophe Bastie	FRA	08:33:09	08:59:27	00:54:45	04:27:46	03:05:38	102
9	13	Per Bittner	GER	08:33:33	08:54:48	00:51:28	04:36:36	03:00:28	79
10	26	Pontus Lindberg	SWE	08:35:18	09:10:30	00:55:21	04:33:59	03:00:58	146
11	7	Thomas Gerlach	USA	08:40:47	09:04:55	00:55:47	04:30:28	03:09:32	120
12	34	Joerie Vansteelant	BEL	08:41:04	09:13:49	01:01:57	04:29:36	03:04:31	(158)
13	29	David Naesvik	SWE	08:45:48	09:13:53	00:56:00	04:33:47	03:11:01	158
14	16	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	08:48:10	09:20:57	00:50:20	04:34:05	03:18:44	192
15	8	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:48:39	09:11:41	01:02:27	04:38:20	03:02:52	151
16	21	Vinny Johnson	USA	08:49:56	09:29:05	00:55:42	04:44:32	03:04:42	224
17	11	Marcel Bischof	GER	09:05:20	09:31:53	00:58:45	04:46:43	03:14:52	234
18	14	Raymond Botelho	USA	09:06:03	09:47:58	00:55:41	04:39:25	03:25:58	303
19	39	Allan Villanueva	MEX	09:21:07	09:48:43	00:56:12	04:53:40	03:26:15	307
20	30	Evgeniy Nikitin	RUS	09:24:58	10:19:32	00:52:51	05:06:10	03:20:57	402
21	36	Dantley Young	USA	09:25:15	10:18:47	01:04:01	04:52:30	03:23:44	(399)
22	12	Aubrey Aldy	USA	09:31:52	10:02:04	01:06:23	05:09:33	03:10:55	360
23	19	Ed Donner	USA	09:32:33	10:14:18	01:00:00	04:56:28	03:31:05	389
24	22	Peter Kotland	CZE	09:37:56	10:09:35	00:59:05	04:58:16	03:35:36	374
25	24	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	09:38:12	10:19:06	01:03:16	05:09:00	03:20:57	401
26	18	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	09:47:07	10:18:04	01:11:33	05:05:00	03:25:34	(396)
27	35	Robbie Wade	IRL	09:48:26	10:31:41	01:00:28	04:57:13	03:45:45	(437)
28	23	Roman Krutina	CZE	09:48:44	10:25:45	00:58:49	05:00:00	03:44:56	(423)
29	27	Brent Mcburney	USA	10:19:54	10:58:53	01:01:21	04:58:39	04:14:54	(464)
30	37	Jason Smith	USA	10:25:29	11:04:48	00:58:44	05:12:15	04:09:30	(469)
31	40	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:14:38	12:11:23	01:12:58	05:31:59	04:24:41	476
	5	Lionel Sanders	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	17	Rod De Kanel	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	20	Robert Duncan	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	25	Frederic Limousin	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	28	Philip Mosley	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	31	Luan Ortiz Silva	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	32	Artem Parienko	RUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	33	Andreas Thissen	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	38	Jacob Rhyner	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	50	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	08:53:40	09:21:20	00:59:21	04:43:59	03:05:20	6
2	52	Leanda Cave	GBR	09:04:46	09:28:12	00:51:57	04:54:55	03:12:55	14
3	56	Ashley Clifford	USA	09:15:29	09:47:48	00:55:25	05:11:19	03:03:45	48
4	66	Tamara Kozulina	UKR	09:19:41	09:46:20	01:03:23	05:01:21	03:09:57	46
5	53	Jessie Donavan	USA	09:20:23	09:41:25	01:08:34	04:52:53	03:13:55	33
6	60	Kathleen Calkins	USA	09:29:16	09:53:53	00:59:10	05:07:12	03:17:55	58
7	54	Uli Bromme	USA	09:33:34	09:59:37	01:04:40	05:03:12	03:20:42	75
8	68	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	09:36:27	10:18:49	00:59:14	05:18:08	03:14:05	(107)
9	57	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	09:37:51	10:04:35	01:11:27	05:03:48	03:17:36	83
10	55	Anna Cleaver	NZL	09:42:46	10:15:57	00:54:22	05:12:50	03:30:35	(104)
11	69	Kristin Lie	NOR	09:45:24	10:20:42	01:14:11	05:00:42	03:25:30	110
12	70	Katya Meyers	USA	09:51:13	10:24:36	01:09:30	05:04:13	03:32:30	(121)
13	61	Jocelyn Cornman	USA	09:55:27	10:32:53	01:02:21	05:24:26	03:23:39	(142)
14	73	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:03:07	10:28:08	01:00:23	05:14:32	03:43:13	134
15	65	Rachel Jastrebsky	USA	10:06:46	10:37:30	01:03:35	05:20:01	03:38:10	146
16	72	Tami Ritchie	USA	10:22:22	10:53:03	00:53:59	05:35:16	03:48:08	156
17	64	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:23:05	10:55:31	01:06:16	05:26:47	03:45:03	158
18	62	Federica Frontini	URU	10:30:06	10:56:53	01:10:50	05:22:38	03:51:38	159
19	67	Leslie Lamacchia	USA	10:31:15	10:59:45	01:09:53	05:32:03	03:44:20	162
20	71	Carla Moreno	BRA	10:34:22	10:54:25	00:57:04	05:53:49	03:38:28	(157)
21	63	Sharon Gallant	CAN	10:43:02	11:23:28	01:06:18	05:42:11	03:49:34	(167)
	58	Dee Atkins	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	59	Michelle Bozarth	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The race favorites are three athletes that have started in Kona – but with very different results. Ben finished second (and if he starts will probably be focused on validating), Andrew had a DNF (and will be looking to deliver a good result) and TO had a frustrating 3:52 marathon (he might do Arizona instead of Florida). If all of them are not in great shape for Florida, then the race will be hotly contested between three other solid IM racers:

• Ben Hoffman: 31% (2-1)
• Andrew Starykowicz: 24% (3-1)
• Timothy O’Donnell: 20% (4-1)
• Maxim Kriat: 9% (10-1)
• Tom Lowe: 7% (13-1)
• Pedro Gomes: 6% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

As for the men, the top contenders have started in Kona: Yvonne had a DNF, and Leanda finished 18th – both will be looking for a good Florida result:

• Yvonne Van Vlerken: 64% (1-1)
• Leanda Cave: 23% (3-1)
• Ashley Clifford: 4% (23-1)
• Tamara Kozulina: 4% (26-1)
• Jessie Donavan: 4% (27-1)