Ironman Melbourne 2014 (March 23rd) – Predictions

Update (March 19th): There have been a few withdrawals (thanks to Asa Lundstrom and Tammy Barker for sending me updates): Most notably, Cam Brown and Natascha Badmann are not starting. Also, Matt Burgess, Tom Rodgers and Kym Jaenke are out. 

With IM Melbourne, the first of the Regional Championships in the 2014 Qualifying cycle is coming. The opportunity to win 4.000 KPR points has attracted a lot of athletes looking to get a good part of the points need to qualify.

I also have a couple of other interesting side-projects going on around IM Melbourne: Luke Dragstra and I have set up IM-Predicitions.com, where you can submit your picks for IM Melbourne, and maybe even win a nice prize. We also have the companion IM-Predictions podcast discussing the pro field in IM Melbourne.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

If the times from last year’s race look a bit strange, that’s because the swim was shortened to about 1.7k because of rough conditions. The shortened swim also helped to “speed up“ the bike and run times.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:20:30	04:28:50	02:43:35	07:36:08
2	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	00:21:45	04:22:32	02:51:28	07:38:59
3	Craig Alexander	AUS	00:20:33	04:29:03	02:46:44	07:39:37

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Corinne Abraham	GBR	00:28:23	04:42:09	02:56:50	08:10:56
2	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	00:27:09	04:55:01	03:00:46	08:26:40
3	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:24:34	04:53:17	03:09:23	08:31:22

Course Records

Because of the shortened swim, I discarded all 2013 results for course records, leaving only the first edition of the race from 2012. Even these times are a bit suspicious, at a minimum the run was a bit short.

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:57:44	Craig Alexander	2012-03-24
Swim	overall	00:47:13	Marko Albert	2012-03-24
Bike	overall	04:24:43	Craig Alexander	2012-03-24
Run	overall	02:38:46	Craig Alexander	2012-03-24
Total	female	08:34:51	Caroline Steffen	2012-03-24
Swim	female	00:52:34	Rachel Joyce	2012-03-24
Bike	female	04:35:29	Caroline Steffen	2012-03-24
Run	female	02:58:29	Mirinda Carfrae	2012-03-24

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Melbourne is 10:46. (As noted above, the course rating is based just on the 2012 results and may not be a good basis for the predicting the 2014 times.)

Race Adjustments for IM Melbourne

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2012	10:46	-01:21	10:45	03:50	41	10:46	-01:21	10:45	03:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Melbourne has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 125k$. It is the first of the Regional Championships in the 2014, attracting an interesting field.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	36	Paul Matthews	AUS	08:12:15	08:22:15	00:46:30	04:38:36	02:50:41	(2)
2	2	Craig Alexander	AUS	08:12:45	08:22:46	00:47:51	04:38:39	02:52:18	3
3	1	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	08:14:47	08:24:51	00:48:42	04:32:00	02:59:10	6
4	5	Dirk Bockel	LUX	08:16:17	08:26:22	00:47:28	04:36:42	02:58:30	10
5	4	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:18:30	08:28:38	00:49:23	04:41:18	02:53:36	12
6	6	David Dellow	AUS	08:20:12	08:30:22	00:47:23	04:41:51	02:57:44	15
7	45	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:20:16	08:30:26	00:54:52	04:30:19	02:58:48	(16)
8	3	Luke McKenzie	AUS	08:28:47	08:39:08	00:47:21	04:37:35	03:09:48	42
9	21	Mike Aigroz	SUI	08:30:49	08:41:12	00:48:49	04:42:14	03:05:12	47
10	10	Christian Kramer	GER	08:32:48	08:43:13	00:47:45	04:45:22	03:02:52	52
11	23	Paul Amey	GBR	08:35:31	08:46:00	00:50:21	04:49:19	03:01:49	59
12	32	Mathias Hecht	SUI	08:36:46	08:47:16	00:48:08	04:45:25	03:08:17	(65)
13	8	Jimmy Johnsen	DEN	08:36:47	08:47:17	00:50:19	04:52:30	02:58:49	66
14	9	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	08:39:19	08:49:52	00:47:30	04:47:25	03:07:48	77
15	22	Paul Ambrose	GBR	08:40:22	08:50:57	00:48:33	04:41:53	03:16:16	81
16	44	Swen Sundberg	GER	08:41:31	08:52:07	00:52:19	04:45:20	03:10:18	87
17	30	Philip Graves	GBR	08:42:16	08:52:53	00:47:33	04:42:48	03:17:06	93
18	31	Jarmo Hast	FIN	08:42:55	08:53:33	00:50:27	04:56:03	03:00:49	97
19	7	Axel Zeebroek	BEL	08:44:24	08:55:04	00:47:24	04:45:56	03:15:10	102
20	33	Todd Israel	AUS	08:45:27	08:56:08	00:49:55	04:53:32	03:08:52	106
21	39	Joshua Rix	AUS	08:49:09	08:59:54	00:49:43	04:45:18	03:21:16	123
22	27	Guy Crawford	NZL	08:49:42	09:00:28	00:48:47	04:45:04	03:24:56	130
23	42	Sylvain Rota	FRA	08:52:18	09:03:07	00:51:37	04:43:16	03:20:12	(142)
24	34	Christian Kemp	AUS	08:53:04	09:03:54	00:48:02	04:52:45	03:05:59	(145)
25	46	Luke Whitmore	AUS	08:56:02	09:06:56	00:53:48	05:04:30	03:03:22	155
26	28	Balazs Csoke	HUN	08:57:16	09:08:11	00:48:35	04:54:43	03:20:25	160
27	38	David Naesvik	SWE	09:00:55	09:11:55	00:55:15	04:50:18	03:19:27	174
28	48	Paul Wisniewski	POL	09:07:34	09:18:42	00:49:45	04:45:00	03:40:54	(195)
29	29	Adam Gordon	NZL	09:07:59	09:19:07	00:52:32	04:56:07	03:11:50	(195)
30	26	Matt Burgess	NZL	09:08:32	09:19:41	00:49:56	04:49:27	03:24:39	(196)
31	43	Benjamin Sanson	FRA	09:13:46	09:25:01	00:47:01	06:12:23	03:41:03	(211)
32	47	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	09:27:42	09:39:14	00:47:34	04:51:08	03:54:34	262
33	25	Dan Brown	PHI	09:40:20	09:52:08	unrated	unrated	unrated	(311)
34	35	Arland Macasieb	PHI	10:01:22	10:13:36	01:02:41	05:30:18	03:39:06	369
	37	Casey Munro	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	41	Tom Rodgers	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	40	Peter Robertson	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	24	Courtney Atkinson	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	11	Caroline Steffen	SUI	09:01:28	09:12:28	00:51:46	04:59:39	03:14:44	176
2	12	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:11:36	09:22:49	00:51:41	05:10:42	03:14:49	202
3	14	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:16:51	09:28:10	01:00:58	05:03:44	03:15:17	224
4	13	Rebekah Keat	AUS	09:20:03	09:31:26	00:53:27	05:15:35	03:17:14	235
5	20	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	09:29:17	09:40:51	01:02:21	05:17:23	03:16:51	268
6	18	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:29:52	09:41:27	01:00:37	05:08:20	03:26:40	273
7	15	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	09:32:39	09:44:18	01:00:00	05:15:36	03:20:48	280
8	16	Rebecca Hoschke	AUS	09:39:41	09:51:28	01:01:17	05:19:25	03:21:42	307
9	17	Stephanie Jones	USA	09:41:50	09:53:40	01:05:44	05:19:59	03:20:42	316
10	49	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	09:45:21	09:57:15	00:56:08	05:21:33	03:33:58	327
11	19	Angela Naeth	CAN	09:49:04	10:01:03	00:57:57	05:10:53	03:26:23	(344)
12	55	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	09:53:18	10:05:22	00:54:38	05:30:13	03:27:09	(353)
13	51	Michelle Duffield	AUS	10:02:07	10:14:21	01:00:00	05:33:00	03:27:55	(373)
14	53	Tine Holst	DEN	10:02:19	10:14:34	01:07:21	05:20:18	03:37:26	374
15	52	Kristy Hallett	AUS	10:38:32	10:51:31	01:01:45	05:35:06	03:52:43	(411)
	54	Kym Jaenke	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	50	Tracy Douglas	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

There is a very interesting mix of athletes on the start list, all of them with some issue. Paul Matthews has the best rating, but his two results are from 2012 and he hasn’t finished an IM since then. Crowie is probably the biggest name, but he has already said goodbye to IM racing after Kona. Marino Vanhoenacker and Dirk Bockel ended their 2013 seasons with frustrating DNFs in Cozumel and Kona. Cameron Brown has just raced New Zealand.

• Craig Alexander: 36% (2-1)
• Marino Vanhoenacker: 19% (4-1)
• Dirk Bockel: 14% (6-1)
• Cameron Brown: 10% (9-1)
• David Dellow: 6% (16-1)
• Paul Matthews: 5% (17-1)
• Luke McKenzie: 5% (20-1)

Female Race Participants

• Caroline Steffen: 61% (1-1)
• Mary Beth Ellis: 24% (3-1)
• Rebekah Keat: 8% (12-1)
• Natascha Badmann: 4% (22-1)

Who do you think is going to win?

At IM-Predicitions.com you can submit your own picks for IM Melbourne, and maybe even win a nice prize!

Interested in more information?

My friend Luke Dragstra and I also have a new podcast called IM-Predictions discussing the pro field in Ironman-distance races. The first episode is focused on IM Melbourne and has just been released!