Update (March 25th): Both Jennie Hansen and Celine Schaerer have announced that they won’t start.
Update (March 26th): As per Thomas Gerlach, Bryan Rhodes and Jonathan Shearon are not starting. I’m trying to get confirmation from WTC.
Please let me know your top picks on IM-Predictions! We want to put up a page for most of the Ironman-distance races leading up to Kona, and will have some great prizes for the best players.
Previous Year’s TOP 3
Male Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Timo Bracht | GER | 00:53:23 | 04:37:34 | 02:51:39 | 08:26:48 |
| 2 | Trevor Delsaut | FRA | 00:57:43 | 04:42:25 | 02:48:02 | 08:33:26 |
| 3 | Jozsef Major | HUN | 00:58:42 | 04:41:03 | 02:48:30 | 08:33:57 |
Female Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Erika Csomor | HUN | 09:35:34 | |||
| 2 | Michelle Vesterby | DEN | 00:55:12 | 05:22:36 | 03:14:18 | 09:36:31 |
| 3 | Lisa Ribes | USA | 01:04:23 | 05:21:41 | 03:07:15 | 09:38:35 |
Course Records
Last year was the first time that Los Cabos hosted an Ironman.
| Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
| Total | overall | 08:26:48 | Timo Bracht | 2013-03-17 |
| Swim | overall | 00:49:25 | Andres Castillo | 2013-03-17 |
| Bike | overall | 04:37:34 | Timo Bracht | 2013-03-17 |
| Run | overall | 02:48:02 | Trevor Delsaut | 2013-03-17 |
| Total | female | 09:35:34 | Erika Csomor | 2013-03-17 |
| Swim | female | 00:55:12 | Michelle Vesterby | 2013-03-17 |
| Bike | female | 05:09:23 | Mareen Hufe | 2013-03-17 |
| Run | female | 03:07:15 | Lisa Ribes | 2013-03-17 |
Course Rating
The Course Rating for IM Los Cabos is -04:28. This is just based on the 2013 race where a lot of athletes were surprised by the tough bike course. Apparently, there have been changes to the bike course, it is now three laps with less hills.
Race Adjustments for IM Los Cabos
| Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | Bike Adj. | Run Adj. | # of Athletes | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating |
| 2013 | -04:28 | -02:22 | -03:04 | 01:57 | 31 | -04:28 | -02:22 | -03:04 | 01:57 |
KPR points and Prize Money
IM Los Cabos has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.
Male Race Participants
Timo Bracht is not back to defend his 2013 title, so last year’s 2nd place finisher Trevor Delsaut gets to wear bib #1. However, he is not my favorite to win the race, instead I have Daniel Fontana and TJ Tollakson (with very similar capabilities, the difference could be Daniel’s better run). Behind these two, there are more than ten athletes of a similar overall capability. One athlete that should be close to the front for most of the day is Jan Van Berkel – he’s a great swimmer, has a decent bike, and unless he explodes on the run (as he did last summer when he was leading in Switzerland), he may even be able to win the race.
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating | Rank |
| 1 | 2 | Daniel Fontana | ITA | 08:41:34 | 08:37:17 | 00:48:32 | 04:43:22 | 03:00:04 | 31 |
| 2 | 4 | TJ Tollakson | USA | 08:43:21 | 08:39:03 | 00:48:53 | 04:39:22 | 03:05:40 | 40 |
| 3 | 13 | Stephen Bayliss | GBR | 08:54:02 | 08:49:39 | 00:47:50 | 04:50:04 | 03:05:03 | 75 |
| 4 | 28 | Ezequiel Morales | ARG | 08:56:08 | 08:51:44 | 00:53:08 | 04:56:32 | 02:57:39 | (86) |
| 5 | 18 | Swen Sundberg | GER | 08:56:31 | 08:52:07 | 00:52:19 | 04:45:20 | 03:10:18 | 87 |
| 6 | 3 | Matthew Russell | USA | 08:59:21 | 08:54:55 | 01:01:32 | 04:47:07 | 02:58:53 | 101 |
| 7 | 1 | Trevor Delsaut | FRA | 09:01:35 | 08:57:08 | 00:55:15 | 04:54:24 | 03:01:38 | 107 |
| 8 | 9 | Petr Vabrousek | CZE | 09:01:37 | 08:57:10 | 00:54:50 | 04:52:50 | 03:03:02 | 109 |
| 9 | 6 | Patrick Evoe | USA | 09:02:12 | 08:57:45 | 00:55:36 | 04:46:36 | 03:08:31 | 115 |
| 10 | 10 | Jan Van Berkel | SUI | 09:02:56 | 08:58:28 | 00:47:18 | 04:45:36 | 03:15:11 | (121) |
| 11 | 24 | Jonathan Shearon | USA | 09:05:21 | 09:00:52 | 00:53:35 | 04:46:19 | 03:14:41 | 134 |
| 12 | 21 | Todd Skipworth | AUS | 09:06:54 | 09:02:24 | 00:45:53 | 04:40:03 | 03:24:39 | (140) |
| 13 | 11 | Mike Schifferle | SUI | 09:07:43 | 09:03:13 | 01:00:17 | 04:51:08 | 03:05:22 | 143 |
| 14 | 14 | Andres Castillo | COL | 09:09:53 | 09:05:22 | 00:47:47 | 04:53:49 | 03:20:00 | 148 |
| 15 | 15 | Dan Mcintosh | USA | 09:10:46 | 09:06:14 | 00:52:03 | 04:52:55 | 03:10:13 | 152 |
| 16 | 12 | Derek Garcia | USA | 09:13:04 | 09:08:31 | 00:54:04 | 04:47:24 | 03:18:11 | 161 |
| 17 | 17 | Domenico Passuello | ITA | 09:14:43 | 09:10:10 | 00:55:23 | 04:51:13 | 03:10:27 | (167) |
| 18 | 25 | Scott Defilippis | USA | 09:22:16 | 09:17:39 | 00:57:11 | 05:04:58 | 03:06:16 | 191 |
| 19 | 23 | Allan Villanueva | MEX | 09:23:21 | 09:18:43 | 00:53:40 | 04:58:11 | 03:21:47 | (195) |
| 20 | 7 | Greg Close | USA | 09:26:55 | 09:22:16 | 00:57:30 | 05:01:22 | 03:10:58 | (201) |
| 21 | 5 | Bryan Rhodes | NZL | 09:27:30 | 09:22:50 | 00:48:51 | 05:02:29 | 03:27:08 | 204 |
| 22 | 22 | Douglas MacLean | USA | 09:27:42 | 09:23:02 | 01:00:17 | 05:03:51 | 03:09:31 | 205 |
| 23 | 29 | Martin Lamontagne Lacasse | CAN | 09:50:41 | 09:45:50 | 00:55:05 | 05:14:38 | 03:26:21 | 288 |
| 24 | 19 | Jim Lubinski | USA | 09:54:17 | 09:49:24 | 01:03:21 | 05:15:03 | 03:26:35 | 302 |
| 25 | 26 | Sergio Quezada | MEX | 10:12:47 | 10:07:45 | 00:51:40 | 05:18:41 | 03:48:54 | 355 |
| 26 | 20 | Josef Svoboda | CZE | 12:01:45 | 11:55:49 | 01:11:57 | 05:56:39 | 04:28:48 | 419 |
| 27 | James Duff | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 16 | Brent Mcburney | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 8 | Matthew Curbeau | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Female Race Participants
Linsey Corbin is the obvious choice to win the race. She was injured for much of 2013, managed to get in race form just in time for Kona, then took some time off to properly heal and also switched her training environment (moving to Bend, Orgeon). However, I expect Celine Schaerer to give Linsey a big challenge: She’s the better swimmer than Linsey, probably bikes on the same level, so it should come down to the run to decide the race. (Unfortunately, Celine won’t be able to start.) Other notable athletes in the field include Jennie Hansen (recent winner of IM Lake Placid), Ashley Clifford (2nd at IM Florida with a sub-9h time), and super-fish Haley Chura (first out of the water in Kona).
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating | Rank |
| 1 | 35 | Linsey Corbin | USA | 09:28:52 | 09:24:12 | 00:57:24 | 05:12:05 | 03:09:02 | 8 |
| 4 | 54 | Kathleen Calkins | USA | 09:45:22 | 09:40:33 | 00:57:15 | 05:17:22 | 03:19:48 | 34 |
| 5 | 41 | Ashley Clifford | USA | 09:45:45 | 09:40:56 | 00:53:53 | 05:29:46 | 03:12:05 | 37 |
| 6 | 52 | Mackenzie Madison | USA | 09:48:19 | 09:43:29 | 01:02:00 | 05:19:38 | 03:13:42 | 43 |
| 7 | 37 | Lisa Ribes | USA | 09:49:16 | 09:44:26 | 01:04:27 | 05:19:37 | 03:14:33 | 46 |
| 8 | 43 | Haley Chura | USA | 09:53:32 | 09:48:39 | 00:49:06 | 05:23:52 | 03:30:22 | 55 |
| 9 | 44 | Katy Blakemore | USA | 09:54:55 | 09:50:02 | 00:52:57 | 05:27:50 | 03:17:00 | (58) |
| 10 | 36 | Carrie Lester | AUS | 09:55:29 | 09:50:35 | 00:56:34 | 05:20:06 | 03:27:09 | 60 |
| 11 | 38 | Beth Shutt | USA | 10:05:53 | 10:00:54 | 01:00:23 | 05:25:43 | 03:26:44 | 85 |
| 12 | 46 | Sara Gross | CAN | 10:06:19 | 10:01:20 | 00:56:44 | 05:39:57 | 03:20:38 | 86 |
| 13 | 45 | Karen Thibodeau | CAN | 10:09:03 | 10:04:03 | 00:54:28 | 05:24:36 | 03:22:56 | (92) |
| 14 | 56 | Brooke Brown | CAN | 10:12:09 | 10:07:07 | 01:05:12 | 05:21:51 | 03:20:23 | (93) |
| 15 | 49 | Olesya Prystayko | UKR | 10:16:26 | 10:11:22 | 01:00:03 | 05:27:46 | 03:38:04 | 99 |
| 16 | 50 | Saleta Castro | ESP | 10:19:34 | 10:14:29 | 00:55:44 | 05:29:45 | 03:40:57 | 105 |
| 17 | 39 | Katharina Grohmann | GER | 10:20:23 | 10:15:17 | 01:14:15 | 05:29:13 | 03:17:45 | 108 |
| 18 | 53 | Anne Basso | FRA | 10:22:57 | 10:17:50 | 00:58:39 | 05:34:02 | 03:43:03 | 114 |
| 19 | 47 | Molly Roohi | USA | 10:37:16 | 10:32:02 | 01:06:29 | 05:31:39 | 03:27:55 | (129) |
| 20 | 51 | Caroline Gregory | USA | 10:37:26 | 10:32:12 | 00:57:51 | 05:45:21 | 03:43:02 | 129 |
| 21 | 42 | Kristina Wiegand | GER | 11:32:05 | 11:26:24 | 01:07:25 | 06:21:46 | 04:06:53 | (147) |
| 40 | Alyssa Godesky | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
- TJ Tollakson: 24% (3-1)
- Daniel Fontana: 21% (4-1)
- Trevor Delsaut: 20% (4-1)
- Ezequiel Morales: 11% (8-1)
- Stephen Bayliss: 10% (9-1)
- Scott Defilippis: 3% (30-1)
- Swen Sundberg: 3% (31-1)
- Patrick Evoe: 2% (40-1)
- Jan Van Berkel: 2% (58-1)
- Matthew Russell: 2% (60-1)
Female Race Participants
- Linsey Corbin: 63% (1-1)
- Celine Schaerer: 10% (9-1)
- Jennie Hansen: 7% (13-1)
- Ashley Clifford: 5% (20-1)
- Carrie Lester: 4% (25-1)
- Lisa Ribes: 4% (25-1)
- Sara Gross: 3% (32-1)
- Mackenzie Madison: 2% (51-1)