Ironman Cairns 2014 (June 8th) – Predictions

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Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:56 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:26:31
2012 David Dellow (AUS) 08:15:04 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:21:00
2013 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:17:43 Liz Blatchford (GBR) 09:19:51

Last Year’s TOP 3

The 2013 race in Cairns was won by two athletes that went on to play a big role in Kona: Luke McKenzie (2nd) and Liz Blatchford (3rd). Also, Tim Van Berkel had the best 2013 run performance.

Cairns Liz

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:49:47 04:21:52 03:01:32 08:17:43
2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:52:25 04:40:57 02:44:24 08:22:16
3 Chris McCormack AUS 00:49:55 04:43:38 02:54:52 08:32:50

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Liz Blatchford GBR 00:54:13 05:10:23 03:09:38 09:19:51
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:55:43 05:08:26 03:13:09 09:23:14
3 Stephanie Jones USA 01:06:41 05:04:09 03:15:17 09:31:46

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:04 David Dellow 2012-06-02
Swim overall 00:43:48 Clayton Fettell 2011-06-05
Bike overall 04:21:52 Luke McKenzie 2013-06-01
Run overall 02:44:24 Tim Van Berkel 2013-06-01
Total female 09:19:51 Liz Blatchford 2013-06-01
Swim female 00:52:56 Belinda Granger 2011-06-05
Bike female 05:00:37 Belinda Harper 2012-06-02
Run female 03:09:38 Liz Blatchford 2013-06-01

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 05:20.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 03:41 01:10 04:05 01:52 12 03:41 01:10 04:05 01:52
2012 08:59 -01:16 06:54 -00:03 20 06:20 -00:03 05:30 00:54
2013 03:19 -02:08 07:31 -03:16 14 05:20 -00:45 06:10 -00:29

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:23:38 08:28:39 00:49:23 04:41:20 02:53:37 17
2 2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:34:01 08:39:08 00:50:15 04:43:55 02:59:30 41
3 3 Peter Robertson AUS 08:35:04 08:40:12 00:44:50 04:39:32 02:58:51 (46)
4 10 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:41:39 08:46:51 00:50:53 04:51:14 03:00:31 64
5 4 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 08:42:24 08:47:36 00:50:15 04:52:57 02:58:41 67
6 6 Casey Munro AUS 08:43:27 08:48:40 00:44:42 04:43:58 03:03:14 (72)
7 8 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:47:25 08:52:40 00:50:08 04:53:33 03:02:29 95
8 5 Jason Shortis AUS 08:47:57 08:53:13 00:53:59 04:50:52 03:00:39 99
9 11 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:50:18 08:55:35 00:53:01 04:39:02 03:19:29 (111)
10 15 Carl Read NZL 08:52:35 08:57:53 00:53:11 04:59:25 03:02:06 123
11 7 Matt Burton AUS 08:52:44 08:58:02 00:54:55 04:41:51 03:09:23 (125)
12 9 Todd Israel AUS 08:56:10 09:01:30 00:50:25 04:56:32 03:10:45 145
13 14 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:17:18 09:22:51 00:48:51 05:02:29 03:27:08 219
14 13 Brodie Madgwick NZL 09:28:16 09:33:56 00:52:54 05:03:57 03:19:03 (264)
12 Luke Martin AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

There is one name absent from this list: I had anticipated Annabel Luxford to give her IM debut (she had announced it on her website). She recently had a bit of a crash and that might have contributed to her racing the shorter 70.3 on the same weekend. I’m not aware of any new IM plans for her.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 16 Liz Blatchford GBR 09:11:38 09:17:08 00:50:34 05:11:06 03:08:13 6
2 17 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:36:48 09:42:33 00:59:57 05:14:43 03:20:04 45
3 18 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 09:40:45 09:46:32 01:01:34 05:17:38 03:17:48 59
4 22 Melanie Burke NZL 09:48:08 09:53:59 01:06:09 05:21:09 03:21:42 75
5 19 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:56:27 10:02:23 00:55:15 05:25:26 03:30:16 96
6 24 Larisa Marsh NZL 10:01:29 10:07:28 01:00:26 05:22:14 03:26:52 (100)
7 21 Hillary Biscay USA 10:04:24 10:10:25 00:52:18 05:36:07 03:36:39 105
20 Katy Duffield AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Hannah Lawrence NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Wendy Mcalpine AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

All the participants are based in Australia or New Zealand. Tim Van Berkel has had a great race here last year – I’m sure he’d love to be one step higher on the podium this year. Cameron Brown might be close to the end of his career, but another solid result in Cairns would put him in a great position for a Kona slot. Courtney Ogden (and also Jason Shortis) are two more experienced athletes that may pul one more great performance out of their hats. Peter Robertson is still struggling to figure out IM racing, while Jimmy Johnsen is hopefully back to racing healthy after some injury woes after his great 2013 season.

  • Tim Van Berkel: 38% (2-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 37% (2-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 13% (7-1)
  • Peter Robertson: 5% (20-1)
  • Jimmy Johnsen: 3% (38-1)
  • Jarmo Hast: 2% (40-1)

Female Race Participants

The field is also dominated by athletes from „down under“. Liz Blatchford won the race last year and is back to defend her title (while her main goal is probably to validate her Kona slot). „Kona“ is also the goal for the next two contenders: The athlete with the longest trip is Asa Lundstrom who just needs a few more points but loves to race IMs (she already has points from Lake Tahoe, Arizona and Melbourne). Rebecca Hoschke has still a chance for a Kona slot, but probably needs a win to get close to the cutoff as she already has five races in her total points. Veteran racer Hillary Biscay is also on the start list but probably won’t be in the mix once the field settles on the bike.

  • Liz Blatchford: 56% (1-1)
  • Asa Lundstroem: 23% (3-1)
  • Rebecca Hoschke: 13% (6-1)
  • Melanie Burke: 3% (28-1)
  • Hillary Biscay: 2% (43-1)
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