Ironman Florida 2013 (November 2nd) – Predictions

Update (Oct 27th): Despite the large number of athletes on the list, I’m only aware of one cancellation: Thomas Gerlach has withdrawn, instead Axel Zeebroek (BEL) is now on the list. Some athletes are still doubtful (Dirk Bockel), while some have confirmed their starts (Mirinda Carfrae, Rebekah Keat).

Update (Oct 31st): Dirk Bockel won’t be starting.

Update (Nov 1st): The Athlete Tracker for Ironman Florida has been populated. There have been no last minute additions. However, 28 athletes (24 men and 4 women) are not showing up – usually this means that they have not picked up their bibs and will not start. I have tried to verify a few names and they are indeed not starting. (Most notably, Rebekah Keat is apparently not yet fully recovered from her 70.3 race.) Therefore, I’ve crossed out those athletes missing from the tracker.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Last year we saw Andy Starykowicz nail the bike on his first IM race with a fantastic 4:04, and then holding on to his lead on the run:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:49:51 04:04:39 03:06:42 08:06:17
2 Jan Raphael GER 00:50:36 04:23:35 02:49:53 08:08:49
3 Scott Defilippis USA 00:57:44 04:18:46 02:47:29 08:09:33

Female Race Results

IM Florida 2012 was the first “good” result for Yvonne van Vlerken after some time, she was able to go sub-9 for the first time after more than four years and a string of frustrating DNF – what a year she’s had since then! Rinny just validated her Kona slot (although she said she got more competitive than planned on the run), while Ashley had a great Ironman debut:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 01:01:26 04:40:20 03:04:45 08:51:35
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:58:53 04:57:06 03:03:26 09:05:03
3 Ashley Clifford USA 00:56:41 05:07:51 02:57:31 09:07:34

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:59:42 Ronnie Schildknecht 2011-11-05
Swim overall 00:44:36 John Flanagan 2011-11-05
Bike overall 04:04:39 Andrew Starykowicz 2012-11-03
Run overall 02:42:55 Mads Vittrup 2011-11-05
Total female 08:51:35 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2012-11-03
Swim female 00:50:26 Tereza Macel 2007-11-03
Bike female 04:40:20 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2012-11-03
Run female 02:53:26 Jessica Jacobs 2011-11-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Florida is 16:35. It is one of the quickest courses, especially the flat bike ride least to quick times.

Race Adjustments for IM Florida

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 13:36 -01:04 07:05 -01:57 28 13:36 -01:04 07:05 -01:57
2006 12:31 -03:15 05:07 04:50 40 13:04 -02:09 06:06 01:27
2007 19:36 00:05 14:25 04:43 68 15:14 -01:24 08:52 02:32
2008 20:56 -00:41 12:54 05:41 44 16:40 -01:14 09:53 03:19
2009 16:57 n/a n/a n/a 29 16:43 -01:14 09:53 03:19
2010 11:43 -00:07 12:06 06:21 33 15:53 -01:00 10:19 03:56
2011 21:21 -00:22 16:23 06:30 32 16:40 -00:54 11:20 04:21
2012 16:02 -03:16 22:48 01:49 36 16:35 -01:14 12:58 04:00

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Florida has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

A lot of the participants in this list are doubtful after a long season and the recent Kona race. For example, Thomas Gerlach said he’d be ready to race, but has to focus on “big results”. With such a large field, there are a lot of athletes competing for the few spots with decent KPR points. Some other athletes have taken a bit of a break and will be relatively fresh.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:15:36 08:31:18 00:47:13 04:41:11 03:00:55 15
2 1 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:16:26 08:32:10 00:47:20 04:26:12 03:17:11 19
3 20 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:16:51 08:32:36 00:55:07 04:42:51 02:52:58 21
4 3 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:18:34 08:34:22 00:47:02 04:34:10 02:56:14 23
5 73 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:19:13 08:35:02 00:48:35 04:43:21 03:00:42 26
6 74 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:23:48 08:39:46 00:47:56 04:45:15 03:04:14 39
7 5 Michael Goehner GER 08:25:47 08:41:49 00:53:08 04:42:57 03:00:41 45
8 32 Per Bittner GER 08:26:38 08:42:41 00:49:29 04:49:54 03:01:02 48
9 76 David Plese SVN 08:27:29 08:43:34 00:54:12 04:46:43 03:00:01 53
10 13 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:27:34 08:43:39 00:48:27 04:49:23 03:03:27 54
11 4 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:28:50 08:44:57 00:51:54 04:40:30 03:05:44 57
12 57 Joe Skipper GBR 08:28:52 08:45:00 00:53:14 04:44:39 03:02:24 60
13 7 Pedro Gomes POR 08:29:34 08:45:43 00:52:11 04:51:40 03:08:21 62
14 8 Jozsef Major HUN 08:31:38 08:47:51 00:57:38 04:42:38 03:03:15 69
15 6 Justin Daerr USA 08:31:44 08:47:57 00:54:05 04:47:59 03:02:16 70
16 65 Christian Kemp AUS 08:33:35 08:49:51 00:48:01 04:52:35 03:07:01 74
17 52 Dorian Wagner GER 08:33:47 08:50:04 00:48:53 04:51:47 03:07:57 77
(18) 77 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:34:25 08:50:43 00:47:29 04:44:58 03:15:29 79
18 26 Vincent Riess AUT 08:34:25 08:50:43 00:54:23 04:56:52 02:53:15 79
19 11 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:34:41 08:51:00 00:53:26 04:44:35 03:09:11 82
20 34 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:37:21 08:53:45 00:54:43 04:52:01 03:02:04 88
21 28 Pontus Lindberg SWE 08:39:30 08:55:58 00:51:08 04:53:30 03:11:06 100
22 9 Patrick Evoe USA 08:40:15 08:56:44 00:55:44 04:45:41 03:09:57 105
23 36 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:40:24 08:56:53 01:00:23 04:48:53 03:04:13 106
24 67 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:41:19 08:57:50 00:54:51 04:52:40 03:05:06 111
25 66 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:42:39 08:59:13 00:55:08 04:45:59 03:15:12 116
26 58 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:43:03 08:59:37 00:48:27 04:57:56 03:11:32 118
27 31 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:43:43 09:00:19 00:48:47 05:06:58 03:01:36 121
28 22 David Bardi FRA 08:44:33 09:01:10 00:49:48 04:46:29 03:22:44 124
29 12 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:45:44 09:02:24 00:48:37 04:43:55 03:30:11 131
30 19 David Naesvik SWE 08:46:12 09:02:52 00:54:42 04:47:26 03:18:53 136
31 61 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:47:08 09:03:50 00:53:45 04:48:15 03:19:56 138
32 18 Andreas Fuchs AUT 08:47:41 09:04:24 00:55:34 04:43:36 03:21:39 139
33 33 Scott Defilippis USA 08:49:16 09:06:02 00:56:02 04:58:43 03:03:00 145
34 45 Derek Garcia USA 08:49:56 09:06:44 00:54:15 04:50:13 03:19:23 147
35 46 Rinalds Sluckis LAT 08:50:02 09:06:50 00:55:52 04:50:46 03:18:33 148
36 44 Nicholas Munoz ESP 08:50:32 09:07:21 00:57:04 05:01:16 03:01:12 149
37 38 Nicolas Hemet FRA 08:51:30 09:08:21 00:53:41 04:52:22 03:19:39 152
38 60 Anders Wagner DEN 08:51:43 09:08:34 01:02:23 04:57:05 03:01:44 153
39 24 Matthew Sheeks USA 08:52:25 09:09:17 01:02:57 05:01:20 02:58:23 155
40 10 Markus Ressler AUT 08:56:44 09:13:45 00:52:02 04:59:38 03:19:46 167
41 27 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:59:24 09:16:30 00:56:21 04:56:09 03:15:41 175
42 43 Gerald Ratschke AUT 09:03:47 09:21:01 01:03:09 05:04:58 03:07:24 187
43 42 Adam Bohach USA 09:05:21 09:22:38 00:55:18 05:09:38 03:14:29 194
44 70 Herve Banti MCO 09:05:58 09:23:16 00:51:22 05:02:47 03:20:18 199
45 55 Manuel Wyss SUI 09:11:15 09:28:43 00:53:07 05:10:57 03:19:28 210
46 51 Chris Boudreaux USA 09:11:55 09:29:24 00:54:07 05:09:10 03:21:31 212
47 62 Blake Becker USA 09:13:08 09:30:40 00:53:14 05:01:50 03:26:20 216
48 69 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:19:28 09:37:12 00:54:52 05:12:16 03:28:44 238
49 30 Daniel Mueller GER 09:20:10 09:37:55 00:51:28 05:06:32 03:45:34 241
50 48 Jim Lubinski USA 09:24:51 09:42:45 01:02:41 05:14:13 03:21:58 259
51 68 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:25:06 09:43:00 00:50:34 05:17:35 03:36:00 262
52 23 Christian Carletto ARG 09:27:21 09:45:20 00:54:59 05:13:52 03:32:34 268
53 47 Vinny Johnson USA 09:28:04 09:46:04 00:53:11 05:27:55 03:16:50 270
54 17 Frank Silvestrin BRA 09:33:28 09:51:38 00:49:58 05:05:50 03:56:48 285
55 35 Aubrey Aldy USA 09:37:37 09:55:55 01:04:37 05:28:23 03:12:52 301
56 39 James Lamastra USA 09:37:45 09:56:04 00:52:24 05:02:17 03:59:53 301
57 50 Josef Krivanek CZE 09:38:15 09:56:34 00:59:42 05:12:10 03:41:09 302
58 49 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:43:14 10:01:43 00:51:09 05:11:06 03:56:23 316
59 37 Peter Kotland USA 09:44:58 10:03:30 00:57:46 05:21:13 03:36:08 320
60 16 Dantley Young USA 09:49:15 10:07:55 01:02:08 05:20:31 03:36:50 329
61 40 Ed Donner USA 10:17:17 10:36:51 00:59:19 05:15:50 04:16:30 378
62 63 Tom Svoboda CZE 10:47:53 11:08:25 00:52:45 05:20:15 04:49:37 396
63 53 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:28:15 11:50:04 01:11:34 05:55:58 04:25:57 399
29 Nate Buttrick USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
25 Benoit Bourguet BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
75 Gustavo Rodriguez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
21 Philip Mosley GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
59 Lennart Moberg SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
56 Michael Louys BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
71 Robbie Wade IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
15 Sean Sullivan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
54 Darrel Williams USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
72 Damon Barnett USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
64 Filip Ospaly CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
14 Martin Kleinl AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Similar to the men’s side, a lot of the participants in this list are doubtful. After winning Kona (and her planned wedding), Rinny may take a break. (She has tweeted she hasn’t made a final decision yet.)

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 81 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:50:50 09:07:39 00:53:52 05:12:43 02:58:30 1
2 80 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 08:55:16 09:12:14 00:57:25 05:00:37 03:08:42 2
3 116 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:07:15 09:24:35 00:52:57 05:12:33 03:16:05 12
4 86 Erika Csomor HUN 09:12:29 09:29:59 00:57:35 05:16:05 03:12:40 19
5 90 Diana Riesler GER 09:18:19 09:36:01 00:59:11 05:08:18 03:24:24 31
6 87 Carrie Lester AUS 09:18:44 09:36:26 00:55:28 05:13:44 03:23:34 32
7 117 Mareen Hufe GER 09:20:48 09:38:34 01:01:09 05:08:38 03:25:56 36
8 118 Ashley Clifford USA 09:24:08 09:42:01 00:53:56 05:32:34 03:14:02 45
9 88 Haley Chura USA 09:25:16 09:43:11 00:49:08 05:23:41 03:29:39 50
10 84 Jackie Arendt USA 09:33:47 09:51:58 00:55:18 05:28:35 03:21:14 62
11 91 Simone Braendli SUI 09:35:54 09:54:09 00:51:32 05:16:50 03:33:29 67
12 82 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:38:56 09:57:17 01:06:10 05:16:08 03:17:59 73
13 94 Christine Anderson USA 09:40:16 09:58:39 00:54:55 05:28:48 03:33:53 76
14 100 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 09:48:26 10:07:05 00:59:32 05:29:33 03:34:16 90
15 111 April Gellatly USA 09:51:26 10:10:11 00:56:47 05:28:51 03:38:55 93
16 114 Anne Basso FRA 09:51:42 10:10:27 00:58:05 05:31:00 03:41:39 95
17 85 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:53:18 10:12:06 00:51:15 05:19:00 03:54:51 100
18 89 Olesya Prystayko UKR 09:53:42 10:12:31 01:00:02 05:31:12 03:39:54 101
19 99 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 09:55:10 10:14:02 00:52:02 05:33:51 03:44:28 107
20 104 Maria Lemeseva RUS 09:55:16 10:14:08 01:06:53 05:32:52 03:32:33 108
21 98 Amber Ferreira USA 09:55:39 10:14:32 00:55:05 05:37:24 03:38:13 108
22 107 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 10:02:59 10:22:05 00:55:26 05:24:19 03:54:20 121
23 106 Cindy Lewis CAN 10:05:42 10:24:54 01:04:05 05:37:23 03:37:28 125
24 93 Emma Graaf SWE 10:09:38 10:28:57 00:57:51 05:36:37 03:53:07 128
25 92 Simona Vykoukalova CZE 10:10:42 10:30:03 01:08:17 05:41:31 03:35:44 128
26 95 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:13:29 10:32:55 01:02:44 05:42:53 03:37:01 129
27 110 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:21:48 10:41:30 01:04:44 05:29:48 04:04:06 132
28 101 Robin Sandos USA 10:32:39 10:52:42 00:58:55 05:43:16 04:04:15 138
29 96 Whitney Garcia USA 10:41:56 11:02:17 01:06:43 06:10:26 04:02:50 141
113 Lindsay Ludlow USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
109 Fabiola Corona MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
102 Suzy Serpico USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
112 Jordan McAmmond USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
115 Lisa Huetthaler AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
97 Molly Roohi USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
105 Beate Goertz GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The first three athletes have raced in Kona (with varying results – Dirk had a DNF, TO had a great fifth place and Andy got a lot of airtime on the bike). It is unclear what they are able to do in Florida, and it may be a good chance for some other athletes with nominally lower chances to contend for the top spot:

  • Dirk Bockel: 38% (2-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 26% (3-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 17% (5-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 6% (17-1)
  • Michael Goehner: 3% (36-1)
  • Daniel Fontana: 3% (38-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 2% (42-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 2% (66-1)

Female Race Participants

On the girls side, the two favorites (Rinny and Yvonne) have just raced hard in Kona – and the next athletes on the list would love to take the win.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 49% (1-1)
  • Mirinda Carfrae: 29% (2-1)
  • Jessica Jacobs: 8% (12-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 6% (16-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 4% (24-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 3% (34-1)

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Post 21-23 Oct | - October 23, 2013

    […] IM Florida http://www.trirating.com/ironman-florida-2013-november-2nd-predictions/ 21 […]

Powered by WordPress. Designed by Woo Themes

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close