Ironman Arizona 2013 (November 17th) – Predictions

With IM Arizona, the next of the late season Ironman race is coming up. As we saw in Florida, we have a pretty large field, and it is doubtful if some athletes will actually show up on race day. The names that I consider likely to withdraw are Victor Del Corral (just won in Florida – may go for the double), Ashley Clifford (just finished second and Florida and has stated she will race Cozumel), and Linsey Corbin and Leanda Cave (raced Kona injured and probably need time to properly heal). I’m sure there will be other late changed to the start list, in Florida there were nearly 30 late withdrawals.

Update (Nov 6th): Victor has confirmed he’ll be racing, and Linsey also announced on Twitter that she’s looking forward to the Tempe experience.

Update (Nov 8th): I have heard from Ironman Pro Registration that Linsey Corbin, TJ Tollakson and Markus Ressler won’t be racing. In addition, I’m taking Ashley Clifford off the list (twitter conversation that she will race in Cozumel, not Arizona).

Update (Nov 15th): Ironman.com has released an update to the start list. In addition to the names I have already crossed, the following athletes won’t start: Bryan Rhodes, Andrew Langfield, Michael Davidson, Ryan Cain, Torsten Abel and Malaika Homo. I have also re-calculated the winning odds. There will probably be another update after race packet pickup.

Update (Nov 16th): The Athlete Tracker for IM Arizona is now live, but the names can’t be right as there are a lot of confirmed DNFs in there. In addition to those I have listed above, Leanda Cave also stated on Twitter that she won’t be racing.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:48:19	04:22:45	02:48:06	08:03:13
2	Paul Matthews	AUS	00:48:27	04:24:31	02:48:27	08:04:58
3	TJ Tollakson	USA	00:48:34	04:19:03	02:56:01	08:07:36

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Linsey Corbin	USA	00:59:11	04:51:34	03:05:54	09:01:41
2	Meredith Kessler	USA	00:50:17	04:53:41	03:18:12	09:06:41
3	Corinne Abraham	GBR	01:04:59	04:54:05	03:11:44	09:15:10

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:59:38	Eneko Llanos	2011-11-19
Swim	overall	00:46:02	Kieran Doe	2008-11-23
Bike	overall	04:16:31	Andrew Starykowicz	2012-11-18
Run	overall	02:43:30	Victor Zyemtsev	2011-11-19
Total	female	08:36:13	Chrissie Wellington	2010-11-21
Swim	female	00:48:13	Leanda Cave	2008-11-23
Bike	female	04:47:06	Chrissie Wellington	2010-11-21
Run	female	02:52:56	Chrissie Wellington	2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 09:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	02:44	-00:30	04:26	-03:19	29	02:44	-00:30	04:26	-03:19
2007	04:41	-00:38	01:07	02:45	26	03:43	-00:34	02:47	-00:17
2008	06:22	00:06	04:33	-00:30	38	04:36	-00:20	03:22	-00:21
2008	10:45	01:15	08:45	01:22	52	06:08	00:03	04:43	00:05
2009	11:46	-01:06	12:02	03:02	37	07:16	-00:10	06:11	00:40
2010	12:12	-00:23	08:31	02:49	46	08:05	-00:12	06:34	01:02
2011	14:36	-00:48	14:56	03:40	55	09:01	-00:18	07:46	01:24
2012	08:56	-02:06	15:27	03:03	50	09:00	-00:31	08:43	01:37

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Arizona has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	40	Victor Del Corral	ESP	08:17:40	08:26:06	00:54:31	04:40:22	02:50:02	10
2	1	Jordan Rapp	USA	08:19:44	08:28:13	00:52:20	04:35:30	02:57:29	14
3	19	Denis Chevrot	FRA	08:23:29	08:32:01	00:46:14	04:46:43	02:58:13	20
4	50	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:28:16	08:36:53	00:51:44	04:48:03	02:54:52	32
5	10	TJ Tollakson	USA	08:31:18	08:39:58	00:48:54	04:39:20	03:07:22	40
6	6	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:35:35	08:44:20	00:51:40	04:50:28	03:07:22	57
7	47	Jarmo Hast	FIN	08:35:39	08:44:24	00:49:54	04:52:50	02:59:08	58
8	55	Torsten Abel	GER	08:37:36	08:46:23	00:49:31	04:51:10	03:00:09	67
9	45	Nick Baldwin	SEY	08:38:50	08:47:38	00:53:11	04:49:36	03:00:53	70
10	12	Matty Reed	USA	08:38:53	08:47:41	00:47:25	04:48:35	03:06:27	70
11	2	Jozsef Major	HUN	08:39:00	08:47:48	00:57:43	04:42:20	03:03:14	70
12	28	Joe Umphenhour	USA	08:39:32	08:48:21	00:47:09	04:52:08	03:08:14	76
13	39	Todd Skipworth	AUS	08:43:42	08:52:35	00:45:53	04:40:02	03:25:27	86
14	13	Daniel Bretscher	USA	08:43:47	08:52:40	00:50:53	04:48:28	03:07:11	86
15	44	Michael Davidson	ZAF	08:44:07	08:53:00	00:53:29	04:53:14	03:05:09	87
16	9	Matthew Russell	USA	08:45:01	08:53:55	01:01:48	04:47:49	02:59:06	91
17	70	Horst Reichel	GER	08:48:41	08:57:39	00:48:26	04:47:41	03:17:32	109
18	51	Andrew Russell	CAN	08:49:29	08:58:28	00:49:26	04:55:31	03:10:22	114
19	64	Thomas Gerlach	USA	08:50:17	08:59:17	00:55:05	04:45:43	03:15:10	120
20	46	Gabriele Mazzetta	ITA	08:51:19	09:00:20	00:51:26	04:55:59	03:11:02	124
21	58	Christian Brader	GER	08:53:34	09:02:37	00:56:26	04:53:47	03:11:57	136
22	14	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:54:46	09:03:50	00:53:43	04:47:42	03:19:37	142
23	8	Trevor Wurtele	CAN	08:55:32	09:04:37	00:54:43	04:51:23	03:14:27	143
24	30	Bryan McCrystal	IRL	08:58:04	09:07:12	01:04:35	04:45:43	03:14:02	150
25	56	Nicholas Munoz	ESP	08:58:15	09:07:23	00:57:05	05:01:16	03:00:55	151
26	37	Raul Furtado	BRA	08:59:41	09:08:50	00:52:41	04:48:37	03:23:31	156
27	22	Markus Ressler	AUT	09:03:50	09:13:03	00:52:01	04:59:31	03:19:41	168
28	24	Dan Mcintosh	USA	09:07:16	09:16:33	00:51:49	04:57:04	03:16:06	177
29	42	Jared Milam	USA	09:07:22	09:16:39	00:53:51	05:07:20	03:10:22	178
30	7	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	09:08:28	09:17:46	00:47:55	04:56:36	03:24:19	180
31	53	Devon Palmer	USA	09:12:10	09:21:32	00:52:37	04:50:10	03:32:17	193
32	54	Ryan Cain	CAN	09:12:47	09:22:09	00:55:34	05:01:47	03:05:33	197
33	21	Anthony Toth	CAN	09:19:21	09:28:50	00:57:42	05:00:14	03:22:59	217
34	27	Christopher Bagg	USA	09:20:02	09:29:32	00:53:32	04:54:56	03:34:52	219
35	71	Erich Wegscheider	USA	09:23:27	09:33:00	00:55:12	05:09:15	03:25:47	227
36	67	Lewis Elliot	USA	09:25:00	09:34:35	00:54:21	04:57:07	03:38:35	232
37	35	Brendan Halpin	USA	09:25:31	09:35:06	01:01:54	05:05:08	03:22:18	234
38	59	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	09:27:18	09:36:55	00:54:35	05:04:38	03:19:03	243
39	36	Patrick Schuster	USA	09:28:37	09:38:16	01:08:52	04:53:26	03:38:19	250
40	23	Andrew Langfield	USA	09:29:03	09:38:42	00:56:35	05:11:16	03:18:11	250
41	25	Luke Way	CAN	09:29:08	09:38:47	00:58:54	05:06:27	03:26:01	251
42	33	Jim Lubinski	USA	09:33:01	09:42:44	01:02:40	05:13:58	03:21:57	263
43	118	Jordan Bryden	CAN	09:33:28	09:43:12	00:50:33	05:16:46	03:35:16	266
44	16	Jozef Vrabel	SVK	09:36:05	09:45:51	00:57:24	05:10:14	03:32:30	274
45	26	Logan Franks	USA	09:36:45	09:46:32	01:02:10	05:08:08	03:26:18	277
46	68	Raymond Botelho	USA	09:40:30	09:50:21	00:55:23	05:03:08	03:46:46	285
47	48	Jon Woods	NZL	09:40:36	09:50:27	00:56:01	05:04:38	03:36:37	285
48	49	Heinrich Sickl	AUT	09:40:49	09:50:40	00:56:00	05:05:24	03:35:24	286
49	15	Patrick Wheeler	USA	09:54:18	10:04:23	00:56:06	05:13:30	03:51:03	328
50	57	Dantley Young	USA	09:56:47	10:06:54	01:02:08	05:20:43	03:36:40	332
51	69	Josep Vinolas	ESP	10:09:10	10:19:30	00:52:04	04:53:22	03:26:55	363
52	41	Brendan Naef	CAN	10:16:55	10:27:23	00:58:06	05:19:59	03:25:59	377
53	29	Richard Wygand	BRA	10:39:32	10:50:23	01:04:09	05:32:41	04:07:53	391
54	119	Jason Watson	USA	10:49:59	11:01:00	00:57:40	05:20:04	04:45:25	395
55	52	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:46:08	11:58:07	01:11:35	05:56:53	04:41:53	402
	60	Johann Ackermann	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	32	Jeff Tarkowski	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	73	Matt Hanson	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	43	Allen Gardner	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	18	Matt Chrabot	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	65	Timo Gronlund	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	38	Marc Duelsen	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	66	Robbie Wade	IRL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	63	Jimi Minnema	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	20	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	34	Pierre-Yves Facomprez	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	61	Josh Seifarth	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	31	Richard Whitfield	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	74	Linsey Corbin	USA	09:13:37	09:23:00	00:57:25	05:12:06	03:09:27	10
2	75	Leanda Cave	GBR	09:16:47	09:26:14	00:50:50	05:11:03	03:20:57	14
3	76	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:17:32	09:26:59	00:50:33	05:11:04	03:21:08	15
4	78	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	09:17:58	09:27:26	00:51:54	05:10:42	03:22:10	17
5	94	Julia Gajer	GER	09:18:09	09:27:37	00:52:38	05:18:50	03:10:45	18
6	95	Diana Riesler	GER	09:26:10	09:35:46	00:59:11	05:07:55	03:24:20	30
7	115	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:27:31	09:37:08	00:49:05	05:16:55	03:27:32	33
8	116	Ashley Clifford	USA	09:27:48	09:37:26	00:53:53	05:29:26	03:12:25	35
9	87	Asa Lundström	SWE	09:32:48	09:42:31	01:00:09	05:15:41	03:22:23	47
10	79	Lisa Ribes	USA	09:33:20	09:43:03	01:04:09	05:20:02	03:15:57	49
11	114	Brooke Brown	CAN	09:34:24	09:44:08	01:04:34	05:18:38	03:17:30	50
12	103	Sarah Piampiano	USA	09:38:12	09:48:00	01:00:55	05:22:45	03:23:12	55
13	106	Sara Gross	CAN	09:38:48	09:48:37	00:55:39	05:33:18	03:18:27	56
14	113	Katja Konschak	GER	09:40:55	09:50:46	00:52:10	05:29:11	03:21:55	60
15	84	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	09:41:45	09:51:37	01:08:06	05:19:54	03:15:23	62
16	77	Heleen Bij De Vaate	NED	09:42:19	09:52:12	01:05:22	05:14:41	03:27:16	65
17	104	Eimear Mullan	IRL	09:42:26	09:52:19	01:01:17	05:26:27	03:15:52	66
18	97	Malaika Homo	USA	09:44:32	09:54:27	00:53:07	05:22:31	03:35:28	70
19	92	Uli Bromme	USA	09:45:37	09:55:33	01:02:52	05:21:56	03:26:21	71
20	83	Stephanie Jones	USA	09:47:13	09:57:11	01:05:45	05:20:02	03:25:11	74
21	85	Kristin Lie	NOR	09:54:04	10:04:08	01:11:39	05:18:12	03:30:02	86
22	88	Beth Shutt	USA	09:55:36	10:05:42	00:59:39	05:27:05	03:34:14	89
23	107	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	09:58:42	10:08:51	01:02:49	05:37:51	03:31:17	95
24	89	Sarah Hankla	USA	10:00:56	10:11:07	00:56:23	05:36:48	03:41:33	102
25	110	Tine Holst	DEN	10:01:35	10:11:47	01:07:03	05:21:24	03:37:07	103
26	91	Nina Pekerman	ISR	10:03:00	10:13:14	00:59:01	05:32:12	03:38:04	108
27	109	Christine Fletcher	CAN	10:08:10	10:18:29	00:58:51	05:29:42	03:42:18	113
28	90	Mackenzie Madison	USA	10:09:46	10:20:06	01:02:01	05:19:36	03:09:31	115
29	111	Trish Deim	USA	10:14:20	10:24:45	01:05:23	05:25:27	03:47:02	124
30	108	Steffi Steinberg	GER	10:19:04	10:29:34	01:08:33	05:38:18	03:34:04	128
31	82	Erin Young	USA	10:20:36	10:31:08	01:00:37	05:51:53	03:37:35	128
32	98	Kristyn Tobey	BMU	10:21:42	10:32:15	01:10:07	05:36:04	03:40:43	128
33	117	Amy Forshaw	GBR	10:22:25	10:32:58	01:02:42	05:42:41	03:37:15	129
34	102	Sarah Baker	CAN	10:33:44	10:44:29	01:03:12	05:39:26	03:59:04	135
35	101	Ann Ciaverella	USA	10:46:09	10:57:06	01:04:38	05:46:22	04:00:45	138
	80	Miranda Tomenson	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	100	Morgin Chaffin	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	105	Julie Van Veelen	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	96	Kate Bruck	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	81	Lisa Mueller	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	93	Jessica Meyers	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

On the men’s side, Florida winner Victor Del Corral has the best chances, but I’m sure Jordan Rapp (racing with bib #1) will want to erase his Kona DNF. TJ Tollakson has had great results in Arizona (two 2nd places and one 3rd), These two are followed by a few lesser known but still fast Europeans:

• Victor Del Corral: 39% (2-1) 34% (2-1)
• Jordan Rapp: 33% (2-1) 26% (3-1)
• TJ Tollakson: 20% (4-1)
• Jarmo Hast: 14% (6-1) 10% (9-1)
• Torsten Abel: 3% (28-1)
• Pedro Gomes: 3% (28-1) 2% (43-1)
• Horst Reichel: 3% (32-1) 2% (46-1)
• Jens Petersen-Bach: 3% (33-1)

Female Race Participants

Linsey Corbin (if she races) has to be considered the favorite to defend her title. Leaving Leanda Cave aside (I’m reasonably sure she won’t be racing) , Meredith Kessler will sure want to improve on her 2nd place from last year. Julia Gajer (who has gone sub-9 three times in Roth) will want to deliver her first good „official“ Ironman result (she was „only“ 4th in Wales after flatting on the bike). Michelle Vesterby (8th in Kona 2013) will probably put her main focus on finishing her mandatory IM. Then she can take a long build for Kona 2014.

Based solely on the ratings, Leanda Cave would have to be considered the favorite, but I wouldn’t consider her for a win. She has announced after the 70.3 in Miami that her off-season has started, so I’m a bit surprised she is still on the start list. Even if she races, my guess is that she’ll only race to validate, and probably won’t be able to deliver a world-class result. Therefore, I have taken her off my list of contenders. (Update Nov 16th: Leanda has confirmed on Twitter that she won’t be racing.)

Without Leanda and Linsey Corbin (who withdrew and thinks about re-building for 2014), the numbers are pretty even between Meredith Kessler and Julia Gajer. I’m sure that Meredith wants to improve on her 2nd place from last year and will be considered the favorite by the US media in Tempe. However, German Julia Gajer (who has gone sub-9 three times in Roth) will want to deliver her first good „official“ Ironman result (she was „only“ 4th in Wales after flatting on the bike). Michelle Vesterby (8th in Kona 2013) has announced that she’s not in Tempe just to finish her mandatory IM but will want to contend for the win. Diana Riesler and Amanda Stevens would also love to finish their 2013 season by winning an IM.

• Linsey Corbin: 34% (2-1)
• Leanda Cave: 22% (4-1)
• Meredith Kessler: 32% (2-1) 14% (6-1)
• Julia Gajer: 31% (2-1) 15% (6-1)
• Michelle Vesterby: 11% (8-1) 4% (21-1)
• Diana Riesler: 10% (9-1) 4% (26-1)
• Ashley Clifford: 3% (28-1)
• Amanda Stevens: 7% (13-1) 2% (50-1)