Ironman Arizona 2013 (November 17th) – Predictions

With IM Arizona, the next of the late season Ironman race is coming up. As we saw in Florida, we have a pretty large field, and it is doubtful if some athletes will actually show up on race day. The names that I consider likely to withdraw are Victor Del Corral (just won in Florida – may go for the double), Ashley Clifford (just finished second and Florida and has stated she will race Cozumel), and Linsey Corbin and Leanda Cave (raced Kona injured and probably need time to properly heal). I’m sure there will be other late changed to the start list, in Florida there were nearly 30 late withdrawals.

Update (Nov 6th): Victor has confirmed he’ll be racing, and Linsey also announced on Twitter that she’s looking forward to the Tempe experience.

Update (Nov 8th): I have heard from Ironman Pro Registration that Linsey Corbin, TJ Tollakson and Markus Ressler won’t be racing. In addition, I’m taking Ashley Clifford off the list (twitter conversation that she will race in Cozumel, not Arizona).

Update (Nov 15th): Ironman.com has released an update to the start list. In addition to the names I have already crossed, the following athletes won’t start: Bryan Rhodes, Andrew Langfield, Michael Davidson, Ryan Cain, Torsten Abel and Malaika Homo. I have also re-calculated the winning odds. There will probably be another update after race packet pickup.

Update (Nov 16th): The Athlete Tracker for IM Arizona is now live, but the names can’t be right as there are a lot of confirmed DNFs in there. In addition to those I have listed above, Leanda Cave also stated on Twitter that she won’t be racing.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Nils Frommhold GER 00:48:19 04:22:45 02:48:06 08:03:13
2 Paul Matthews AUS 00:48:27 04:24:31 02:48:27 08:04:58
3 TJ Tollakson USA 00:48:34 04:19:03 02:56:01 08:07:36

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Linsey Corbin USA 00:59:11 04:51:34 03:05:54 09:01:41
2 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:17 04:53:41 03:18:12 09:06:41
3 Corinne Abraham GBR 01:04:59 04:54:05 03:11:44 09:15:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:59:38 Eneko Llanos 2011-11-19
Swim overall 00:46:02 Kieran Doe 2008-11-23
Bike overall 04:16:31 Andrew Starykowicz 2012-11-18
Run overall 02:43:30 Victor Zyemtsev 2011-11-19
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:47:06 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 09:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 02:44 -00:30 04:26 -03:19 29 02:44 -00:30 04:26 -03:19
2007 04:41 -00:38 01:07 02:45 26 03:43 -00:34 02:47 -00:17
2008 06:22 00:06 04:33 -00:30 38 04:36 -00:20 03:22 -00:21
2008 10:45 01:15 08:45 01:22 52 06:08 00:03 04:43 00:05
2009 11:46 -01:06 12:02 03:02 37 07:16 -00:10 06:11 00:40
2010 12:12 -00:23 08:31 02:49 46 08:05 -00:12 06:34 01:02
2011 14:36 -00:48 14:56 03:40 55 09:01 -00:18 07:46 01:24
2012 08:56 -02:06 15:27 03:03 50 09:00 -00:31 08:43 01:37

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Arizona has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 40 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:17:40 08:26:06 00:54:31 04:40:22 02:50:02 10
2 1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:19:44 08:28:13 00:52:20 04:35:30 02:57:29 14
3 19 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:23:29 08:32:01 00:46:14 04:46:43 02:58:13 20
4 50 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:28:16 08:36:53 00:51:44 04:48:03 02:54:52 32
5 10 TJ Tollakson USA 08:31:18 08:39:58 00:48:54 04:39:20 03:07:22 40
6 6 Pedro Gomes POR 08:35:35 08:44:20 00:51:40 04:50:28 03:07:22 57
7 47 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:35:39 08:44:24 00:49:54 04:52:50 02:59:08 58
8 55 Torsten Abel GER 08:37:36 08:46:23 00:49:31 04:51:10 03:00:09 67
9 45 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:38:50 08:47:38 00:53:11 04:49:36 03:00:53 70
10 12 Matty Reed USA 08:38:53 08:47:41 00:47:25 04:48:35 03:06:27 70
11 2 Jozsef Major HUN 08:39:00 08:47:48 00:57:43 04:42:20 03:03:14 70
12 28 Joe Umphenhour USA 08:39:32 08:48:21 00:47:09 04:52:08 03:08:14 76
13 39 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:43:42 08:52:35 00:45:53 04:40:02 03:25:27 86
14 13 Daniel Bretscher USA 08:43:47 08:52:40 00:50:53 04:48:28 03:07:11 86
15 44 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:44:07 08:53:00 00:53:29 04:53:14 03:05:09 87
16 9 Matthew Russell USA 08:45:01 08:53:55 01:01:48 04:47:49 02:59:06 91
17 70 Horst Reichel GER 08:48:41 08:57:39 00:48:26 04:47:41 03:17:32 109
18 51 Andrew Russell CAN 08:49:29 08:58:28 00:49:26 04:55:31 03:10:22 114
19 64 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:50:17 08:59:17 00:55:05 04:45:43 03:15:10 120
20 46 Gabriele Mazzetta ITA 08:51:19 09:00:20 00:51:26 04:55:59 03:11:02 124
21 58 Christian Brader GER 08:53:34 09:02:37 00:56:26 04:53:47 03:11:57 136
22 14 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:54:46 09:03:50 00:53:43 04:47:42 03:19:37 142
23 8 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:55:32 09:04:37 00:54:43 04:51:23 03:14:27 143
24 30 Bryan McCrystal IRL 08:58:04 09:07:12 01:04:35 04:45:43 03:14:02 150
25 56 Nicholas Munoz ESP 08:58:15 09:07:23 00:57:05 05:01:16 03:00:55 151
26 37 Raul Furtado BRA 08:59:41 09:08:50 00:52:41 04:48:37 03:23:31 156
27 22 Markus Ressler AUT 09:03:50 09:13:03 00:52:01 04:59:31 03:19:41 168
28 24 Dan Mcintosh USA 09:07:16 09:16:33 00:51:49 04:57:04 03:16:06 177
29 42 Jared Milam USA 09:07:22 09:16:39 00:53:51 05:07:20 03:10:22 178
30 7 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:08:28 09:17:46 00:47:55 04:56:36 03:24:19 180
31 53 Devon Palmer USA 09:12:10 09:21:32 00:52:37 04:50:10 03:32:17 193
32 54 Ryan Cain CAN 09:12:47 09:22:09 00:55:34 05:01:47 03:05:33 197
33 21 Anthony Toth CAN 09:19:21 09:28:50 00:57:42 05:00:14 03:22:59 217
34 27 Christopher Bagg USA 09:20:02 09:29:32 00:53:32 04:54:56 03:34:52 219
35 71 Erich Wegscheider USA 09:23:27 09:33:00 00:55:12 05:09:15 03:25:47 227
36 67 Lewis Elliot USA 09:25:00 09:34:35 00:54:21 04:57:07 03:38:35 232
37 35 Brendan Halpin USA 09:25:31 09:35:06 01:01:54 05:05:08 03:22:18 234
38 59 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 09:27:18 09:36:55 00:54:35 05:04:38 03:19:03 243
39 36 Patrick Schuster USA 09:28:37 09:38:16 01:08:52 04:53:26 03:38:19 250
40 23 Andrew Langfield USA 09:29:03 09:38:42 00:56:35 05:11:16 03:18:11 250
41 25 Luke Way CAN 09:29:08 09:38:47 00:58:54 05:06:27 03:26:01 251
42 33 Jim Lubinski USA 09:33:01 09:42:44 01:02:40 05:13:58 03:21:57 263
43 118 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:33:28 09:43:12 00:50:33 05:16:46 03:35:16 266
44 16 Jozef Vrabel SVK 09:36:05 09:45:51 00:57:24 05:10:14 03:32:30 274
45 26 Logan Franks USA 09:36:45 09:46:32 01:02:10 05:08:08 03:26:18 277
46 68 Raymond Botelho USA 09:40:30 09:50:21 00:55:23 05:03:08 03:46:46 285
47 48 Jon Woods NZL 09:40:36 09:50:27 00:56:01 05:04:38 03:36:37 285
48 49 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:40:49 09:50:40 00:56:00 05:05:24 03:35:24 286
49 15 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:54:18 10:04:23 00:56:06 05:13:30 03:51:03 328
50 57 Dantley Young USA 09:56:47 10:06:54 01:02:08 05:20:43 03:36:40 332
51 69 Josep Vinolas ESP 10:09:10 10:19:30 00:52:04 04:53:22 03:26:55 363
52 41 Brendan Naef CAN 10:16:55 10:27:23 00:58:06 05:19:59 03:25:59 377
53 29 Richard Wygand BRA 10:39:32 10:50:23 01:04:09 05:32:41 04:07:53 391
54 119 Jason Watson USA 10:49:59 11:01:00 00:57:40 05:20:04 04:45:25 395
55 52 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:46:08 11:58:07 01:11:35 05:56:53 04:41:53 402
60 Johann Ackermann GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
32 Jeff Tarkowski USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
73 Matt Hanson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
43 Allen Gardner USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
18 Matt Chrabot USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
65 Timo Gronlund USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
38 Marc Duelsen GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
66 Robbie Wade IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
63 Jimi Minnema USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
20 Ritchie Nicholls GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
34 Pierre-Yves Facomprez FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
61 Josh Seifarth CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
31 Richard Whitfield GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 74 Linsey Corbin USA 09:13:37 09:23:00 00:57:25 05:12:06 03:09:27 10
2 75 Leanda Cave GBR 09:16:47 09:26:14 00:50:50 05:11:03 03:20:57 14
3 76 Meredith Kessler USA 09:17:32 09:26:59 00:50:33 05:11:04 03:21:08 15
4 78 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:17:58 09:27:26 00:51:54 05:10:42 03:22:10 17
5 94 Julia Gajer GER 09:18:09 09:27:37 00:52:38 05:18:50 03:10:45 18
6 95 Diana Riesler GER 09:26:10 09:35:46 00:59:11 05:07:55 03:24:20 30
7 115 Amanda Stevens USA 09:27:31 09:37:08 00:49:05 05:16:55 03:27:32 33
8 116 Ashley Clifford USA 09:27:48 09:37:26 00:53:53 05:29:26 03:12:25 35
9 87 Asa Lundström SWE 09:32:48 09:42:31 01:00:09 05:15:41 03:22:23 47
10 79 Lisa Ribes USA 09:33:20 09:43:03 01:04:09 05:20:02 03:15:57 49
11 114 Brooke Brown CAN 09:34:24 09:44:08 01:04:34 05:18:38 03:17:30 50
12 103 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:38:12 09:48:00 01:00:55 05:22:45 03:23:12 55
13 106 Sara Gross CAN 09:38:48 09:48:37 00:55:39 05:33:18 03:18:27 56
14 113 Katja Konschak GER 09:40:55 09:50:46 00:52:10 05:29:11 03:21:55 60
15 84 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:41:45 09:51:37 01:08:06 05:19:54 03:15:23 62
16 77 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 09:42:19 09:52:12 01:05:22 05:14:41 03:27:16 65
17 104 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:42:26 09:52:19 01:01:17 05:26:27 03:15:52 66
18 97 Malaika Homo USA 09:44:32 09:54:27 00:53:07 05:22:31 03:35:28 70
19 92 Uli Bromme USA 09:45:37 09:55:33 01:02:52 05:21:56 03:26:21 71
20 83 Stephanie Jones USA 09:47:13 09:57:11 01:05:45 05:20:02 03:25:11 74
21 85 Kristin Lie NOR 09:54:04 10:04:08 01:11:39 05:18:12 03:30:02 86
22 88 Beth Shutt USA 09:55:36 10:05:42 00:59:39 05:27:05 03:34:14 89
23 107 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:58:42 10:08:51 01:02:49 05:37:51 03:31:17 95
24 89 Sarah Hankla USA 10:00:56 10:11:07 00:56:23 05:36:48 03:41:33 102
25 110 Tine Holst DEN 10:01:35 10:11:47 01:07:03 05:21:24 03:37:07 103
26 91 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:03:00 10:13:14 00:59:01 05:32:12 03:38:04 108
27 109 Christine Fletcher CAN 10:08:10 10:18:29 00:58:51 05:29:42 03:42:18 113
28 90 Mackenzie Madison USA 10:09:46 10:20:06 01:02:01 05:19:36 03:09:31 115
29 111 Trish Deim USA 10:14:20 10:24:45 01:05:23 05:25:27 03:47:02 124
30 108 Steffi Steinberg GER 10:19:04 10:29:34 01:08:33 05:38:18 03:34:04 128
31 82 Erin Young USA 10:20:36 10:31:08 01:00:37 05:51:53 03:37:35 128
32 98 Kristyn Tobey BMU 10:21:42 10:32:15 01:10:07 05:36:04 03:40:43 128
33 117 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:22:25 10:32:58 01:02:42 05:42:41 03:37:15 129
34 102 Sarah Baker CAN 10:33:44 10:44:29 01:03:12 05:39:26 03:59:04 135
35 101 Ann Ciaverella USA 10:46:09 10:57:06 01:04:38 05:46:22 04:00:45 138
80 Miranda Tomenson CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
100 Morgin Chaffin USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
105 Julie Van Veelen CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
96 Kate Bruck USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
81 Lisa Mueller USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
93 Jessica Meyers USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

On the men’s side, Florida winner Victor Del Corral has the best chances, but I’m sure Jordan Rapp (racing with bib #1) will want to erase his Kona DNF. TJ Tollakson has had great results in Arizona (two 2nd places and one 3rd), These two are followed by a few lesser known but still fast Europeans:

  • Victor Del Corral: 39% (2-1) 34% (2-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 33% (2-1) 26% (3-1)
  • TJ Tollakson: 20% (4-1)
  • Jarmo Hast: 14% (6-1) 10% (9-1)
  • Torsten Abel: 3% (28-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 3% (28-1) 2% (43-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 3% (32-1) 2% (46-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 3% (33-1)

Female Race Participants

Linsey Corbin (if she races) has to be considered the favorite to defend her title. Leaving Leanda Cave aside (I’m reasonably sure she won’t be racing) , Meredith Kessler will sure want to improve on her 2nd place from last year. Julia Gajer (who has gone sub-9 three times in Roth) will want to deliver her first good „official“ Ironman result (she was „only“ 4th in Wales after flatting on the bike). Michelle Vesterby (8th in Kona 2013) will probably put her main focus on finishing her mandatory IM. Then she can take a long build for Kona 2014.

Based solely on the ratings, Leanda Cave would have to be considered the favorite, but I wouldn’t consider her for a win. She has announced after the 70.3 in Miami that her off-season has started, so I’m a bit surprised she is still on the start list. Even if she races, my guess is that she’ll only race to validate, and probably won’t be able to deliver a world-class result. Therefore, I have taken her off my list of contenders. (Update Nov 16th: Leanda has confirmed on Twitter that she won’t be racing.)

Without Leanda and Linsey Corbin (who withdrew and thinks about re-building for 2014), the numbers are pretty even between Meredith Kessler and Julia Gajer. I’m sure that Meredith wants to improve on her 2nd place from last year and will be considered the favorite by the US media in Tempe. However, German Julia Gajer (who has gone sub-9 three times in Roth) will want to deliver her first good „official“ Ironman result (she was „only“ 4th in Wales after flatting on the bike). Michelle Vesterby (8th in Kona 2013) has announced that she’s not in Tempe just to finish her mandatory IM but will want to contend for the win. Diana Riesler and Amanda Stevens would also love to finish their 2013 season by winning an IM.

  • Linsey Corbin: 34% (2-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 22% (4-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 32% (2-1) 14% (6-1)
  • Julia Gajer: 31% (2-1) 15% (6-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 11% (8-1) 4% (21-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 10% (9-1) 4% (26-1)
  • Ashley Clifford: 3% (28-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 7% (13-1) 2% (50-1)

3 Responses to Ironman Arizona 2013 (November 17th) – Predictions

  1. Luke Dragstra November 8, 2013 at 1:18 pm #

    I can’t imagine Del Coral will be racing.. If he is he won’t be a favorite to win,, one to watch out for is euro 70.3 Champs Richie Nichols… If he found his form back….

  2. Thorsten November 8, 2013 at 1:37 pm #

    Victor has said on Twitter that he will be racing. Rumor has it that he is also shopping for a new helmet. It will be interesting to see how he backs up so soon after his great time in Florida!

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Posts 2-16 nov | - November 16, 2013

    […] Predicciones para el IM ARIZONA: Favorito Victor Del Corral ! http://www.trirating.com/ironman-arizona-2013-november-17th-predicitions/ 6 […]

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