Ironman Malaysia 2015 (Nov 14th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2006	Jason Shortis (AUS)	08:36:33	Sonja Tajsich (GER)	10:08:13
2007	Xavier Le Floch (FRA)	08:43:52	Nicole Leder (GER)	09:42:33
2008	Faris Al-Sultan (GER)	08:34:42	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:29:21
2009	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	08:26:48	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:21:10
2010	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:22:31	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:23:33
2014	Patrik Nilsson (SWE)	08:41:53	Diana Riesler (GER)	09:26:38

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	00:49:49	04:40:31	03:05:37	08:41:53
2	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	00:53:34	04:49:56	03:10:00	08:58:45
3	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	00:56:05	04:47:03	03:26:21	09:15:00

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Diana Riesler	GER	00:59:11	04:58:44	03:23:11	09:26:38
2	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	00:56:51	05:28:43	03:29:23	10:00:13
3	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	01:04:11	05:25:17	03:26:33	10:02:03

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:10:35	Bryan Rhodes	2002-01-27
Swim	overall	00:46:19	Dylan McNeice	2014-09-27
Bike	overall	04:21:01	Marino Vanhoenacker	2010-02-27
Run	overall	02:56:27	Jason Shortis	2006-02-26
Total	female	09:21:10	Belinda Granger	2009-02-28
Swim	female	00:50:45	Nina Kraft	2007-02-28
Bike	female	04:48:08	Belinda Granger	2009-02-28
Run	female	03:17:36	Nicole Leder	2007-02-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Malaysia is – 19:30.

Race Adjustments for IM Malaysia

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2014	-19:30	-02:07	-01:26	-12:09	19	-19:30	-02:07	-01:26	-12:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Malaysia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	20	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	08:58:00	08:44:46	00:56:16	04:43:40	03:13:04	66
2	1	Romain Guillaume	FRA	08:58:59	08:42:30	00:50:41	04:42:16	03:21:02	59
3	15	Alberto Casadei	ITA	08:59:32	08:54:10	00:49:33	04:53:01	03:11:58	106
4	28	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	09:00:44	08:47:32	00:53:42	04:52:27	03:09:35	79
5	2	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	09:02:11	08:43:23	00:54:09	04:53:15	03:09:46	60
6	11	Mike Aigroz	SUI	09:04:52	08:46:15	00:50:58	04:49:14	03:19:40	72
7	5	Paul Ambrose	AUS	09:05:34	08:49:42	00:52:22	04:46:30	03:21:42	85
8	13	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	09:09:18	08:58:50	00:55:52	04:54:40	03:13:46	125
9	12	Christian Brader	GER	09:14:30	08:54:12	00:59:27	04:56:58	03:13:05	107
10	29	Carl Read	NZL	09:15:07	09:01:25	00:54:40	05:01:55	03:13:32	136
11	7	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	09:17:22	09:07:17	00:50:12	04:55:56	03:26:15	161
12	18	Todd Israel	AUS	09:17:31	09:02:48	00:53:33	04:59:11	03:19:48	143
13	10	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:19:03	08:59:38	00:50:18	04:55:00	03:28:45	130
14	9	Elliot Holtham	CAN	09:23:04	09:13:19	00:55:47	04:58:59	03:23:18	190
15	37	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	09:23:06	09:10:19	00:51:36	05:15:15	03:11:14	179
16	34	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:23:51	09:00:19	00:58:47	04:59:20	03:20:44	131
17	8	Cedric Lassonde	FRA	09:24:56	09:05:36	00:58:20	04:57:12	03:24:23	158
18	14	Guy Crawford	NZL	09:25:23	09:09:40	00:51:03	04:48:26	03:40:54	174
19	31	Peter Seidel	GER	09:28:53	09:23:33	00:56:31	04:48:35	03:38:47	(236)
20	4	Chris Legh	AUS	09:33:03	09:11:47	00:58:25	04:59:55	03:29:43	(186)
21	27	Steven Osborne	GBR	09:34:34	09:33:50	00:59:08	05:17:03	03:13:22	277
22	36	Brad Williams	USA	09:35:09	09:26:16	00:59:33	05:02:22	03:28:14	(243)
23	6	Tohara Kaito	JPN	09:35:50	09:26:05	00:56:44	05:17:16	03:16:50	242
24	32	Yu Shinozaki	JPN	09:48:04	09:58:58	00:58:18	04:56:08	03:48:37	363
25	22	Michael Louys	BEL	09:48:11	09:31:46	01:04:44	05:05:22	03:33:06	265
26	21	Freddy Lampret	ZAF	09:49:01	10:03:07	00:55:20	05:18:09	03:30:31	(373)
27	35	Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen	BEL	09:49:35	09:31:17	00:59:56	05:07:35	03:37:03	263
28	3	Markus Mlinar	AUT	09:50:33	09:50:10	00:58:13	05:07:59	03:39:21	(334)
29	24	Hiroyuki Nishiuchi	JPN	09:52:46	09:29:10	00:51:28	05:26:04	03:30:13	(250)
30	16	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	10:10:13	09:53:24	01:11:59	05:17:07	03:36:07	348
31	26	Gilian Oriet	SUI	10:29:44	10:32:28	01:01:55	05:09:40	04:13:09	(457)
32	25	Young Hwan Oh	KOR	11:08:39	10:58:20	01:05:30	05:28:41	04:29:29	(474)
33	33	Josef Svoboda	CZE	12:05:59	11:59:40	01:15:28	06:06:17	04:39:13	481
34	23	Marek Nemcik	SVK	12:09:45	12:01:04	01:15:24	05:52:43	04:56:39	482
	17	Frederic Garcia	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	19	Yvan Jarrige	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	30	Daniil Sapunov	UKR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Exp. Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	41	Diana Riesler	GER	09:38:43	09:38:25	00:59:51	05:03:49	03:30:03	41
2	52	Haley Chura	USA	09:54:00	09:43:05	00:51:20	05:22:15	03:35:25	50
3	47	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:55:58	09:33:36	01:06:36	05:26:34	03:17:47	31
4	42	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:57:59	09:38:56	01:04:34	05:10:00	03:38:25	43
5	65	Rebecca Preston	AUS	09:59:08	09:36:55	01:00:17	05:21:15	03:32:36	38
6	43	Bree Wee	USA	10:04:33	09:42:51	00:56:55	05:23:48	03:38:50	48
7	51	Jeanne Collonge	FRA	10:09:04	10:01:57	01:00:32	05:20:33	03:42:59	92
8	44	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	10:10:11	10:18:24	00:57:34	05:31:51	03:35:47	132
9	66	Tineke Van den Berg	NED	10:11:07	09:55:37	01:08:14	05:17:05	03:40:48	80
10	50	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	10:11:45	09:53:01	00:56:35	05:32:01	03:38:09	76
11	54	Jessica Fleming	AUS	10:11:53	09:51:33	01:03:34	05:18:02	03:45:18	73
12	46	Sarah Crowley	AUS	10:11:54	10:02:27	01:01:00	05:29:02	03:36:52	(94)
13	56	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	10:16:53	10:03:59	01:05:02	05:36:04	03:30:47	97
14	67	Kathrin Walther	GER	10:17:40	10:10:08	01:03:09	05:20:49	03:48:42	111
15	62	Caroline Livesey	GBR	10:19:08	09:58:38	01:03:53	05:27:43	03:42:32	85
16	49	Monique Grossrieder	SUI	10:22:26	10:07:33	01:07:32	05:31:51	03:38:02	(108)
17	45	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	10:22:27	10:00:13	00:58:35	05:29:26	03:49:27	89
18	57	Katharina Grohmann	GER	10:24:14	10:06:50	01:14:26	05:29:20	03:35:28	106
19	59	Anna Halasz	HUN	10:25:05	10:17:33	01:10:42	05:24:00	03:45:23	(129)
20	63	Jocelyn Mccauley	USA	10:26:20	10:10:33	01:02:09	05:34:12	03:44:58	(112)
21	48	Saleta Castro	ESP	10:29:57	10:16:10	00:59:02	05:35:49	03:50:06	127
22	53	Michelle Duffield	AUS	10:30:29	10:15:21	01:04:14	05:36:40	03:44:35	125
23	58	Emma Graaf	SWE	10:36:53	10:18:29	01:02:34	05:34:10	03:55:10	133
24	64	Maki Nishiuchi	JPN	10:39:21	10:23:56	00:57:02	05:35:20	04:01:59	151
25	61	Angela Kuehnlein	GER	11:00:29	10:50:15	01:06:20	05:42:25	04:06:44	(176)
26	60	Mami Ishii	JPN	13:11:33	12:59:19	01:04:55	06:05:28	05:56:10	(181)
	55	Carole Fuchs	THA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The race is pretty open on the male side: Krill Kotshegarov, Alberto Casadei, Frederik Croneborg and Romain Guillaume have very similar chances, and there a number of other athletes that aren’t expected to be too far off:

• Kirill Kotshegarov: 25% (3-1)
• Alberto Casadei: 18% (5-1)
• Fredrik Croneborg: 16% (5-1)
• Romain Guillaume: 14% (6-1)
• Paul Ambrose: 9% (11-1)
• Jens Petersen-Bach: 8% (11-1)
• Mike Aigroz: 4% (23-1)
• Mauro Baertsch: 3% (35-1)
• Carl Read: 2% (47-1)

Female Race Participants

Last year’s winner Diana Riesler is the clear favorite for this year as well – provided she has recovered from her DNF in Kona. Haley Chura is still struggling with the injuries she suffered when hit by a car, she was a DNF in Kona and unlikely isn’t able to start in Malaysia. Then there are a number of athletes looking for KPR points in order to qualify for Kona 2016: Kristin Möller and Bree Wee almost qualified in 2015, and Natascha Badmann took some time to recover from her injuries but has already returned to racing with a podium in Vichy.

• Diana Riesler: 59% (1-1)
• Haley Chura: 13% (7-1)
• Kristin Moeller: 8% (11-1)
• Natascha Badmann: 7% (13-1)
• Rebecca Preston: 7% (14-1)
• Jeanne Collonge: 3% (31-1)
• Bree Wee: 2% (59-1)