Ironman Texas 2014 (May 17th) – Predictions

Have some fun predicting the Texas podium at IM Predictions – and you may even win a nice prize!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Paul Amey GBR 00:54:54 04:29:07 02:56:18 08:25:06
2 James Cunnama ZAF 00:50:17 04:32:55 03:00:25 08:27:35
3 Ian Mikelson USA 00:51:55 04:32:01 03:01:59 08:30:06

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:54:02 04:42:29 03:07:27 08:49:14
2 Jennie Hansen USA 01:07:22 05:01:06 03:10:51 09:25:35
3 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:04:16 05:03:42 03:19:15 09:33:01

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:08:20 Eneko Llanos 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:18:17 Mathias Hecht 2012-05-19
Run overall 02:46:55 Jordan Rapp 2012-05-19
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:53:12 Kelly Williamson 2011-05-21
Bike female 04:42:29 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 10:43.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 09:31 -02:42 16:27 -01:17 38 09:31 -02:42 16:27 -01:17
2012 14:53 -01:22 13:46 03:00 23 12:12 -02:02 15:06 00:52
2013 07:45 -01:44 14:28 02:26 24 10:43 -01:56 14:53 01:23

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

The field has a lot of North American names – most of them looking to get their Kona plans sorted. Jordan Rapp still needs about 1.800 points to qualify, so he has to finish at least on the podium. Bas Diederen only has 960 points from South Africa – a long way to go. Jens Petersen-Bach is probably just looking for a good race after his long-term injury has flared up again over the winter. Bevan Docherty still has to figure out things after a few disappointing recent DNFs. Chris McDonald finished strong in 2013, and a good result in Texas would secure a Kona slot for him. Then there are a lot of more good, solid athletes: Last years winner Paul Amey, Texan Brandon Marsh (1st out of the water in Kona), Matthew Russel who always has one of the best run splits, super-swimmer Balasz Csoke (who lives close to the race site) and more that I can’t mention here: A good, deep field, with a lot of people that might be able to surprise with a podium result.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:19:30 08:29:37 00:52:18 04:34:38 02:57:16 17
2 11 Bas Diederen NED 08:21:09 08:31:18 00:47:22 04:41:32 02:55:17 19
3 17 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:27:20 08:37:36 00:51:44 04:46:19 02:54:00 33
4 5 Bevan Docherty NZL 08:27:24 08:37:40 00:47:16 04:44:22 02:54:33 (34)
5 32 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:33:11 08:43:34 00:51:05 04:41:47 02:54:23 (54)
6 6 Chris McDonald AUS 08:35:25 08:45:51 00:52:46 04:42:48 03:03:15 59
7 4 Justin Daerr USA 08:38:16 08:48:46 00:53:52 04:46:49 03:02:33 70
8 26 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:38:23 08:48:53 00:47:49 04:49:40 03:04:47 71
9 7 Jozsef Major HUN 08:39:30 08:50:01 00:57:36 04:42:16 03:03:59 77
10 3 Swen Sundberg GER 08:40:23 08:50:55 00:52:17 04:45:24 03:08:32 80
11 1 Paul Amey GBR 08:40:43 08:51:16 00:50:51 04:52:13 03:03:38 84
12 9 Brandon Marsh USA 08:42:06 08:52:40 00:47:33 04:48:03 03:09:36 93
13 8 Matthew Russell USA 08:43:58 08:54:35 01:00:58 04:47:39 02:58:39 104
14 21 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:49:36 09:00:19 00:54:53 04:45:02 03:14:09 129
15 16 Matt Hanson USA 08:54:43 09:05:33 00:56:08 04:58:04 02:54:42 (153)
16 14 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:55:00 09:05:50 00:48:05 04:51:11 03:21:49 156
17 20 Jose Jeuland FRA 08:58:16 09:09:10 00:52:32 05:00:06 03:08:03 170
18 18 Chris Boudreaux USA 09:04:06 09:15:07 00:52:20 04:59:41 03:12:13 192
19 19 Chad Holderbaum USA 09:07:37 09:18:42 00:54:57 04:54:29 03:13:57 (203)
20 25 Douglas MacLean USA 09:11:39 09:22:49 00:59:15 05:04:23 03:09:43 211
21 23 Nathan Buttrick USA 09:16:04 09:27:20 01:00:33 05:00:46 03:05:50 (233)
22 33 Allan Villanueva MEX 09:23:25 09:34:50 00:53:50 05:07:58 03:29:22 257
23 30 Jim Lubinski USA 09:29:57 09:41:29 01:02:47 05:14:58 03:18:58 281
24 31 Raymond Botelho USA 09:30:50 09:42:23 00:54:56 04:58:22 03:40:07 283
25 12 Peter Kotland USA 09:41:38 09:53:25 00:57:37 05:17:39 03:30:36 327
26 24 Patrick Schuster USA 09:57:53 10:09:59 01:07:16 05:06:53 03:43:59 (371)
27 13 Ed Donner USA 10:07:09 10:19:27 00:58:08 05:11:24 03:52:53 (395)
28 28 Matthew Curbeau USA 10:08:48 10:21:08 01:03:57 05:06:51 03:48:44 (398)
29 Robert Wade IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 James Chesson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Clay Emge USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Timothy Reed AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
27 Kyle Hughes USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The women’s field is headed by two European athletes: Eva Wutti (two sub-9 finishes in her two IM-distance races at IM Copenhagen and Challenge Barcelone) and Julia Gajer (with three sub-9 finishes in Roth, and recent winner of IM Arizona. They face a large number of solid North American athletes: Kelly Williamson (going back to long distance), Jennie Hansen (forced to take a break by some lingering illness, but hopefully back in full swing), Sarah Piampiano (looking to qualify for Kona), go-till-you’re-broke Bree Wee. As for the men, the list of potential podium finishers goes on and on.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 50 Eva Wutti AUT 09:06:56 09:18:00 00:55:34 04:57:37 03:08:59 (7)
2 43 Julia Gajer GER 09:11:39 09:22:49 00:52:45 05:17:04 03:08:17 8
3 41 Kelly Williamson USA 09:21:29 09:32:51 00:51:54 05:26:31 03:10:05 (19)
4 47 Jennie Hansen USA 09:27:20 09:38:49 01:04:26 05:15:37 03:12:04 34
5 44 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:35:27 09:47:06 01:01:08 05:19:28 03:21:20 53
6 56 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:35:51 09:47:31 01:00:34 05:22:35 03:17:50 (56)
7 42 Bree Wee USA 09:37:19 09:49:00 00:54:07 05:18:53 03:28:20 57
8 45 Jackie Arendt USA 09:46:44 09:58:37 00:55:49 05:31:45 03:22:21 78
9 64 Amber Ferreira USA 09:50:38 10:02:36 00:55:22 05:32:06 03:30:14 88
10 51 Sara Gross CAN 09:55:18 10:07:21 00:57:18 05:43:21 03:22:38 92
11 46 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:57:59 10:10:05 00:55:01 05:27:51 03:24:58 (97)
12 49 April Gellatly USA 09:58:52 10:11:00 00:56:27 05:28:39 03:38:02 99
13 52 Olesya Prystayko UKR 09:59:14 10:11:22 01:00:03 05:27:46 03:38:04 100
14 65 Jessica Meyers USA 10:00:59 10:13:09 00:59:16 05:25:14 03:29:34 (104)
15 67 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:01:48 10:13:59 01:00:26 05:28:56 03:36:52 105
16 55 Christine Fletcher CAN 10:04:43 10:16:58 00:58:55 05:28:20 03:42:03 112
17 61 Cindy Lewis CAN 10:12:01 10:24:25 01:03:46 05:35:35 03:35:50 128
18 53 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 10:12:24 10:24:48 01:01:05 05:29:24 03:38:03 (129)
19 48 Suzy Serpico USA 10:24:51 10:37:30 00:54:28 05:24:44 03:55:09 (136)
20 70 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:28:38 10:41:22 01:02:12 05:15:53 03:58:08 (142)
21 69 Lindsay Ludlow USA 10:32:17 10:45:05 01:04:54 05:38:02 03:36:47 (142)
22 60 Tami Ritchie USA 10:36:20 10:49:13 00:51:56 06:06:49 03:44:46 143
23 66 Heather Leiggi USA 10:45:02 10:58:06 01:04:54 05:29:13 04:02:45 (146)
24 68 Kristina Wiegand GER 11:27:59 11:41:55 01:06:18 06:14:48 04:21:50 151
59 Amy Javens USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
62 Ali Black USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
63 Christina Jackson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
54 Corrie Kristick USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
58 Palmira Alvarez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
57 Jocelyn Cornman USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

If Bevan manages to finish the race, he should deliver a great result (only one IM finish so far – his record-breaking win at IM New Zealand in 2013). If you feel that he hasn’t managed to control his problems, Jordan Rapp is the clear favorite for the race:

  • Bevan Docherty: 54% (1-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 26% (3-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 9% (11-1)
  • Paul Amey: 6% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, it’s too close to call between the two European athletes:

  • Eva Wutti: 32% (2-1)
  • Julia Gajer: 31% (2-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 16% (5-1)
  • Jennie Hansen: 10% (9-1)
  • Sara Gross: 5% (20-1)
  • Tamara Kozulina: 2% (46-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 2% (48-1)
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