Update (Apr 27th): Brad Kahlefeldt announced on Instagram that he suffered a labral tear during his last long training run after avoiding a dog attack. He hopes to be back to running after a short break and then race IM Cairns.
Previous Winners
| Year | Male Winner | Time | Female Winner | Time |
| 2005 | Chris McCormack (AUS) | 08:25:44 | Lisa Bentley (CAN) | 09:13:20 |
| 2006 | Chris McCormack (AUS) | 08:20:42 | Lisa Bentley (CAN) | 09:19:44 |
| 2007 | Patrick Vernay (NCL) | 08:21:49 | Rebekah Keat (AUS) | 09:12:59 |
| 2008 | Patrick Vernay (NCL) | 08:31:32 | Chrissie Wellington (GBR) | 09:03:54 |
| 2009 | Patrick Vernay (NCL) | 08:24:53 | Chrissie Wellington (GBR) | 08:57:10 |
| 2010 | Patrick Vernay (NCL) | 08:23:54 | Carrie Lester (AUS) | 09:23:46 |
| 2011 | Pete Jacobs (AUS) | 08:29:28 | Caroline Steffen (SUI) | 09:29:54 |
| 2012 | Paul Ambrose (AUS) | 08:17:38 | Michelle Gailey (AUS) | 09:34:57 |
| 2013 | Luke Bell (AUS) | 08:30:23 | Rebecca Hoschke (AUS) | 09:34:55 |
| 2014 | Elliot Holtham (CAN) | 08:35:18 | Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) | 09:28:43 |
| 2015 | Paul Ambrose (AUS) | 08:35:53 | Michelle Bremer (NZL) | 09:38:24 |
Last Year’s TOP 3
Male Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Paul Ambrose | AUS | 00:47:34 | 04:39:24 | 03:05:22 | 08:35:53 |
| 2 | Luke Bell | AUS | 00:44:58 | 04:49:01 | 03:01:01 | 08:38:34 |
| 3 | Brian Fuller | AUS | 00:48:28 | 04:49:53 | 03:08:30 | 08:49:39 |
Female Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Michelle Bremer | NZL | 00:53:13 | 05:18:15 | 03:23:17 | 09:38:24 |
| 2 | Jessica Fleming | AUS | 00:56:26 | 05:11:50 | 03:30:35 | 09:42:18 |
| 3 | Michelle Gailey | AUS | 00:52:54 | 05:24:59 | 03:28:56 | 09:50:51 |
Course Records
| Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
| Total | overall | 08:17:38 | Paul Ambrose | 2012-04-29 |
| Swim | overall | 00:44:24 | Luke Bell | 2014-05-04 |
| Bike | overall | 04:31:25 | Paul Ambrose | 2012-04-29 |
| Run | overall | 02:47:20 | Tim Van Berkel | 2012-04-29 |
| Total | female | 08:57:10 | Chrissie Wellington | 2009-04-05 |
| Swim | female | 00:48:42 | Melissa Ashton | 2006-05-11 |
| Bike | female | 05:00:57 | Carrie Lester | 2010-03-28 |
| Run | female | 03:01:06 | Lisa Bentley | 2006-05-11 |
Course Rating
The Course Rating for IM Australia is 04:32.
Race Adjustments for IM Australia
| Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | Bike Adj. | Run Adj. | # of Finishers | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating |
| 2006 | 01:23 | 02:10 | -07:18 | 00:32 | 30 | 01:23 | 02:10 | -07:18 | 00:32 |
| 2007 | 03:43 | 01:45 | -05:11 | 00:32 | 36 | 02:33 | 01:58 | -06:15 | 00:32 |
| 2008 | 01:05 | 00:00 | -02:59 | 00:48 | 24 | 02:03 | 01:18 | -05:09 | 00:37 |
| 2009 | 02:39 | -00:16 | -04:18 | 02:26 | 28 | 02:12 | 00:55 | -04:57 | 01:04 |
| 2010 | 08:03 | 04:55 | 02:30 | 00:04 | 18 | 03:22 | 01:43 | -03:27 | 00:52 |
| 2011 | 02:12 | 02:16 | -02:28 | 01:46 | 14 | 03:11 | 01:48 | -03:17 | 01:01 |
| 2012 | 05:11 | 02:22 | 01:24 | 03:52 | 9 | 03:28 | 01:53 | -02:37 | 01:26 |
| 2013 | 12:01 | 01:37 | -03:18 | 07:56 | 9 | 04:32 | 01:51 | -02:42 | 02:14 |
| 2014 | 11:02 | 03:35 | -02:25 | 08:23 | 15 of 17 | 05:15 | 02:03 | -02:40 | 02:55 |
| 2015 | -01:55 | 02:36 | -00:10 | -00:37 | 18 of 24 | 04:32 | 02:06 | -02:25 | 02:34 |
KPR points and Prize Money
IM Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.
Male Race Participants
This is the first time I’m including a “Consistency” in my pre-race post. It shows the fraction of races where an athlete has been about as expected (the first number), significantly faster (the number with the “+”) or significantly slower (including DNFs, the number with the “-“) and also the total number of IM starts. For more information have a look at my post on “Consistency of Athletes“.
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 2 | 4 | David Dellow | AUS | 08:24:37 | 08:26:12 | 00:46:02 | 04:41:35 | 02:52:00 | 58% +3% -39% (12) | 14 |
| 3 | 7 | Dougal Allan | NZL | 08:28:47 | 08:36:07 | 00:56:30 | 04:30:56 | 02:56:20 | 70% +13% -17% (6) | 39 |
| 4 | 1 | Paul Ambrose | AUS | 08:34:11 | 08:54:58 | 00:47:17 | 04:40:06 | 03:01:48 | 47% +4% -48% (19) | 103 |
| 5 | 2 | Luke Bell | AUS | 08:34:31 | 08:59:15 | 00:45:08 | 04:44:53 | 02:59:29 | 23% +5% -72% (26) | 119 |
| 6 | 14 | Mitch Dean | AUS | 08:45:02 | 09:00:07 | 00:46:37 | 04:50:15 | 03:03:09 | 100% +0% -0% (1) | (124) |
| 7 | 6 | Tim Reed | AUS | 08:47:15 | 08:59:59 | 00:45:44 | 04:44:43 | 03:11:48 | 23% +28% -50% (3) | (122) |
| 8 | 8 | Casey Munro | AUS | 08:47:29 | 09:02:28 | 00:45:05 | 04:43:37 | 03:13:47 | 47% +0% -53% (4) | (133) |
| 9 | 5 | Clayton Fettell | AUS | 08:48:54 | 08:46:08 | 00:45:12 | 04:46:42 | 03:11:59 | 20% +0% -80% (6) | 72 |
| 10 | 17 | Jarmo Hast | FIN | 08:49:42 | 08:53:41 | 00:48:41 | 04:55:29 | 03:00:32 | 48% +6% -46% (13) | 97 |
| 11 | 15 | Michael Fox | AUS | 08:51:33 | 09:06:50 | 00:46:53 | 04:57:32 | 03:02:08 | 100% +0% -0% (1) | (155) |
| 12 | 13 | Simon Cochrane | NZL | 08:53:25 | 09:05:31 | 00:49:07 | 04:54:56 | 03:04:22 | 78% +16% -5% (15) | 153 |
| 13 | 11 | Simon Billeau | FRA | 08:55:05 | 08:55:59 | 00:52:15 | 04:46:05 | 03:11:45 | 52% +0% -48% (16) | 109 |
| 14 | 16 | Adam Gordon | AUS | 09:03:16 | 09:19:33 | 00:52:35 | 05:06:16 | 02:59:26 | 13% +61% -26% (3) | 199 |
| 15 | 18 | Darren Jenkins | AUS | 09:11:58 | 09:19:21 | 01:02:04 | 05:05:08 | 02:59:46 | 80% +0% -20% (7) | 198 |
| 16 | 19 | James Lubinski | USA | 09:16:06 | 09:37:00 | 00:59:50 | 05:03:26 | 03:07:49 | 34% +29% -37% (15) | 242 |
| 17 | 12 | Allister Caird | AUS | 09:17:18 | 09:33:19 | 00:54:17 | 05:04:36 | 03:13:25 | 53% +0% -47% (2) | (233) |
| 18 | 22 | Matt Randall | NZL | 09:50:49 | 10:00:14 | 00:56:16 | 05:02:31 | 03:47:02 | 55% +0% -45% (5) | 275 |
| 9 | Josh Amberger | AUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 10 | Levi Maxwell | AUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 20 | Samuel Murphy | AUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 21 | Caleb Noble | AUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 23 | Leigh Stabryla | AUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 24 | Lindsey Wall | AUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Female Race Participants
This is the first time I’m including a “Consistency” in my pre-race post. It shows the fraction of races where an athlete has been about as expected (the first number), significantly faster (the number with the “+”) or significantly slower (including DNFs, the number with the “-“) and also the total number of IM starts. For more information have a look at my post on “Consistency of Athletes“.
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 1 | 32 | Gina Crawford | NZL | 09:23:30 | 09:25:14 | 00:50:11 | 05:17:22 | 03:10:56 | 78% +2% -20% (37) | 20 |
| 2 | 33 | Beth Gerdes | USA | 09:25:35 | 09:35:51 | 00:58:02 | 05:19:53 | 03:02:40 | 47% +40% -14% (12) | 40 |
| 3 | 31 | Michelle Bremer | NZL | 09:33:00 | 09:44:22 | 00:54:33 | 05:15:27 | 03:18:00 | 91% +0% -9% (10) | 53 |
| 4 | 37 | Lisa Marangon | AUS | 09:36:50 | 10:08:41 | 00:51:09 | 05:11:48 | 03:28:54 | 16% +13% -71% (13) | (107) |
| 5 | 35 | Dimity-Lee Duke | AUS | 09:41:50 | 09:46:00 | 00:58:20 | 05:22:03 | 03:16:27 | 71% +29% -0% (8) | 56 |
| 6 | 34 | Melanie Burke | NZL | 09:44:52 | 09:51:11 | 01:01:46 | 05:19:03 | 03:19:02 | 74% +15% -11% (10) | 69 |
| 7 | 41 | Alison Fitch | AUS | 09:46:04 | 09:50:08 | 00:51:39 | 05:20:13 | 03:29:12 | 100% +0% -0% (7) | (65) |
| 8 | 40 | Wendy Mcalpine | AUS | 09:54:24 | 10:11:29 | 00:55:54 | 05:22:35 | 03:30:55 | 100% +0% -0% (1) | (112) |
| 9 | 38 | Tamsyn Hayes | NZL | 10:04:12 | 10:23:50 | 00:55:49 | 05:21:26 | 03:41:56 | 35% +15% -50% (9) | (145) |
| 10 | 36 | Amy Javens | USA | 10:16:37 | 10:22:56 | 01:04:39 | 05:28:37 | 03:38:21 | 100% +0% -0% (4) | 141 |
| 11 | 39 | Kristy Hallett | AUS | 10:17:30 | 10:29:26 | 01:00:08 | 05:31:15 | 03:41:07 | 58% +28% -15% (6) | 160 |
| 42 | Lauren Parker | AUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 43 | Jessica Richards | AUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
Even if almost all the athletes are from Australia or New Zealand, it’ll be an interesting, wide open race: Most of the top-rated athletes have been struggling a bit lately. Brad Kahlefeldt has only finished one IM, followed by a DNF in Kona. David Dellow had a fantastic sub-8 in Roth but also a string of DNFs. Dougal Allan has already been racing a lot this year, posting bike records in Wanaka and at IM New Zealand, but it’s unclear if he’s recovered well for another fast race. Defending champion Paul Ambrose is seeded fourth in my data, if he has a good day he’ll be the one to watch. Luke Bell is another great athlete, but he’s been quite inconsistent lately. Tim Reed is returning to the IM distance after a DNF in Western Australia – as a strong swimmer he’ll be in the mix for a long time, but he’ll need a solid run for a solid Ironman finish.
In addition, with Josh Amberger and Levi Maxwell there are two Ironman-rookies that make predicting the race even harder.
- Dougal Allan: 29% (2-1)
- David Dellow: 27% (3-1)
Brad Kahlefeldt: 20% (4-1)- Paul Ambrose: 11% (8-1)
- Luke Bell: 11% (8-1)
Female Race Participants
Gina Crawford is clearly the best rated athlete in the women’s field, but she hasn’t had many good results lately and seems to be dialing back her racing career this year. This would put US athlete (but currently Australian-based) Beth Gerdes into the favorite’s role. Beth will be eying Lisa Bentley’s run record (3:01:06) – and so far we haven’t had a sub-3 women’s run this year. Defending champion Michelle Bremer should be in front of Beth for the swim and bike, but Michelle will need another new run PR (she just ran 3:14 at IM New Zealand) to defend her title.
- Gina Crawford: 35% (2-1)
- Beth Gerdes: 33% (2-1)
- Michelle Bremer: 19% (4-1)
- Lisa Marangon: 6% (15-1)
- Dimity-Lee Duke: 3% (29-1)