This post looks at Kona Pro Qualifying before the remaining races before the August cutoff:

Date	Type	Race	Points
12-Aug	70.3	70.3 Steelhead	P-750
18-Aug	IM	IM Sweden – WPRO only	P-2000
19-Aug	70.3	70.3 Bintan	P-500
19-Aug	IM	IM Copenhagen – MPRO only	P-2000
19-Aug	70.3	70.3 Dun Laoghaire	P-500
19-Aug	IM	IM Mont Tremblant	P-2000

(The results from 70.3 Steelhead and 70.3 Dun Laoghaire did not influence the race for the August slots.)

There are more Ironman and 70.3 races in August, but they are already part of 2019 qualifying. The August qualifiers for 2018 are determined on August 19th.

The following analysis is built on the available start lists posted by Ironman and assumes that there are not going to be any late entries. As always, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.

Women’s Qualifying

August 18th: Updated after IM Sweden, August 19th: Updated after 70.3 Bintan

There are 7 Kona points slots (not counting the athletes already qualified in July) for the female Pros in August. The following table lists the athletes currently occupying the qualifying slots:

Rank	Athlete	Points	Races	Comments
1	Corinne Abraham	5.289	3+1
(2)	Yvonne Van Vlerken	5.100	3+1	expected to decline (not interested in racing Kona)
3	Asa Lundstroem	4.390	3+1
4	Beth McKenzie	4.310	1+2
5	Katja Konschak	4.110	3+1
6	Angela Naeth	4.065	3+1
7	Camilla Lindholm Borg	3.920	3+1
8	Haley Chura	3.875	2+2

The following table lists what each of the athletes will need who are on one of the start lists and who can still overtake Katharina (who was initially the athlete in the last qualifying spot with 3.620 points), even if that is probably not going to be enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass Katharina, there are likely others that leap further ahead). In brackets I have added the (result) that will be needed to be quite certain of a slot (regardless of where others may finish, “n/a” meaning that even with a win a slot is not assured). For the women, the “magic number” of points to qualify in August should be just below 4.200, anyone who can pass Katja should be safe:

Athlete	Points	Races	Registered for	Needs
Liz Blatchford	3.535	1+2	IM Mont Tremblant	8th (5th)
Asa Lundstroem	3.510	3+1	IM Sweden	4th (2nd)
Laurel Wassner	3.480	2+2	IM Mont Tremblant (DNS)	4th (3rd)
Angela Naeth	3.425	2+2	IM Sweden, IM Mont Tremblant	4th (2nd)
Corinne Abraham	3.280	2+1	IM Sweden	7th (4th)
Lauren Brandon	3.210	2+2	IM Mont Tremblant	4th (2nd)
Meredith Kessler	3.205	1+2	IM Mont Tremblant	5th (3rd)
Dede Griesbauer	2.780	2+1	IM Sweden	4th (2nd)
Kim Morrison *	2.690	2+2	IM Sweden	2nd (Win)
Jessie Donavan	2.395	3+1	IM Mont Tremblant (DNS)	Win (Win)
Sonja Tajsich	1.800	2+1	IM Sweden	Win (n/a)

* Similar to Yvonne Van Vlerken, Kim Morrison has indicated that she would decline a Kona slot.

Update August 10th: With Sara no longer in the mix for an August slot, the cutoff will probably occur somewhere between Katja and Camilla, likely around 4.000 points. This slightly reduces the needed finishes, in most scenarios athletes should qualify by finishing one rank further down than listed above.

There are a lot more athletes registered for the remaining August races, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.

Men’s Qualifying

August 19th: Updated after IM Copenhagen

There are 10 Kona points slots (not counting the athletes qualified in July) for the male Pros in August. The following table lists the male Pros in the direct qualifying ranks:

Rank	Athlete	Points	Races	Comments
1	Philipp Koutny	4.925	3+1
2	Boris Stein	4.880	2+2
3	Marc Duelsen	4.250	3+1
4	Cyril Vienot	4.060	2+2
5	Giulio Molinari	3.610	3+1
6	Callum Millward	3.465	2+2
7	Simon Cochrane	3.420	3+1
8	Nick Kastelein	3.340	1+2
9	Nick Baldwin	3.305	3+1
10	Jonathan Shearon	3.290	3+1
–	Ben Kanute	3.200	0+2	not validated, no known IM plans
11	Tim Don	3.160	1+2	registered for IM Copenhagen (should be safe with a 7th)
12	Jeremy Jurkiewicz	3.125	3+1
–	Sam Appleton	3.105	0+2	not validated, no known IM plans

Boris Stein still needs an Ironman finish to be eligible for a slot. He is registered for IM Copenhagen and “just finishing” will secure a points slot for him. With Ben Kanute and Sam Appleton not being eligible for Kona (no Ironman finish), this means that currently Nick Baldwin occupies the last direct qualifying slot, but it’s safe to assume that a number of athletes are going to score and that more than 3.100 points will be needed.

The next table lists what each of the athletes will need who are on one of the start lists and who can still get to at least 3.105 points, even if that is probably not going to be enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass that mark, there are likely others that leap further ahead). In brackets I have added the (result) that will be needed to be quite certain of a slot (regardless of where others may finish, “n/a” meaning that even with a win a slot is not assured). For the men I consider 3.500 to be the “magic number” for an August slot, anyone who can pass Callum should be safe:

Athlete	Points	Races	Registered for	Needs
Andrej Vistica *	3.060	3+1	IM Copenhagen	4th (3rd)
Joe Gambles	2.885	1+2	IM Mont Tremblant	8th (5th)
Mark Bowstead	2.830	3+1	70.3 Indonesia	2nd (n/a)
Giulio Molinari	2.670	3+1	IM Copenhagen	4th (3rd)
Jesper Svensson	2.620	1+2	IM Copenhagen	6th (4th)
Patrick McKeon	2.595	2+1	IM Mont Tremblant (DNS)	6th (4th)
Jeff Symonds	2.320	2+0	IM Mont Tremblant	4th (3rd)
Sam Long	2.305	3+1	IM Mont Tremblant	3rd (2nd)
Matthew Russell	2.080	2+2	IM Mont Tremblant	3rd (2nd)
Cyril Viennot	2.060	1+2	IM Copenhagen	3rd (2nd)
Johann Ackermann	1.905	2+2	IM Copenhagen	2nd (Win)
Stefan Schmid	1.680	2+0	IM Copenhagen	2nd (Win)
Daniil Sapunov	1.465	2+2	IM Copenhagen	Win (n/a)

* Andrej Vistica has announced that he will skip IM Copenhagen and is therefore out of the qualifying game.

As for the women, there are a lot more athletes registered for the remaining August races, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.

With 2018 Kona qualifying almost completed, a lot of Pro athletes are already planning their qualifying for Kona 2019. At the end of last year, Ironman has announced a new system for Kona Pro Qualifying that is going to replace the existing KPR system, starting with qualifying for Kona 2019. The first Pro races under the new system are going to be Ironman Wales and Ironman Wisconsin in early September. This post is a summary of my understanding of the new system and the implications for Pros that want to qualify.

Main Elements

Here are the main elements of the new “slot-based” system. Ironman is expected to release “the fine print” on the new system after the end of 2018 qualifying, but I don’t expect any significant differences to the elements outlined in this post.

1. Each Pro Ironman race will have at least one base Kona slot each for the male and female Pros. The slot will go to the winner of the race (or the best-placed athlete not yet qualified, see #4). Races designated as Regional Championships (currently Mar del Plata, South Africa, Texas, Cairns and Frankfurt) will have two base slots for each gender. (There will also be single gender races, these will have a slot just for that gender.)
2. Some races will have an additional two “unassigned” slots, each of the Regional Championships and about five other Ironman races. These slots will be proportionally allocated to the male and female Pros based on the number of starters (see example below).
3. There will also be Automatic Qualifiers (subject to validation by finishing an Ironman in the qualifying season): As under the existing KPR system, Kona winners will receive a five-year exemption, in addition there will be a one-year exemption for the 70.3 Champions and the other podium finishers in Kona.
4. Similar to the system for agegroupers, Pro slots have to be accepted after each race – so it’s likely that the Pros will also have to attend the “World Championships Slot Allocation” ceremony that’s usually held the day after the race. When Pros are not interested in a slot or have already qualified at another race, the slot will roll down to the next athlete.

Determining the 2018 Kona Field with the New System

Obviously, simply using the results from this season and applying the new system has a number of limitations. First of all, the races with unassigned slots are not fully determined yet. (Ironman has published the slots for the 2018 races, among them IM Arizona and IM Western Australia will have floating slots in addition to the Regional Championships in Mar del Plata.) In addition, the number of slots available will influence where athletes will race and how the floating slots will be divided between male and female Pros.

The following example from IM Frankfurt shows how the slots would have been distributed and how far slots might roll late in the season:

• First of all, as a Regional Championship Frankfurt has 4 base slots (2 for the females and 2 for the male Pros) and 2 unassigned slots.
• The 2018 start numbers were 21 male and 13 females. Proportionally, this means 3.7 slots for the men and 2.3 for the women. Clearly, this means that both floating slots go to the men, so it’s 4 male and 2 female Kona Pro slots in total.
• Male Slots roll down to seventh place (in order of the finishers): Jan Frodeno (AQ slot as previous Kona winner), Patrik Nilsson (#1 slot), Patrick Lange (AQ slot as Kona winner), Nick Kastelein (#2 slot), Josh Amberger (already qualified in South Africa), Philipp Koutny (#3 slot), Tyler Butterfield (#4 slot)
• Female Slots roll down to fourth place: Daniela Ryf (AQ slot as Kona winner), Sarah True (#1 slot), Sarah Crowley (AQ slot as Kona podium), Anne Haug (#2 slot)

(Update Nov 24th, 2018: After the first few races, there are some more details on the algorithm that IM is using to determine how the slots will be assigned to the genders. Based on my understanding, when there are at least twice as many male Pro starters, both slots will go to the men, otherwise the slots will be evenly split. In the Frankfurt example above, there are fewer men than twice the females, and there would have probably been three slots for the MPRO and three for the WPRO.
Update December 2018: For the Regional Championships, the details are even trickier. Check out my post on the algorithm for assigning slots.)

When simulating the 2018 field with the new system, here are some changes:

• Ironman winners, but not enough KPR points
  Laurel Wasser (winner IM Taiwan), Diana Riesler (winner IM Malaysia), Jesper Svensson (winner IM Brasil) and both winners at IM France (Giulio Molinari and Corinne Abraham) would be in under the new system, but haven’t been able to qualify in the July KPR. (Some are still looking to qualify in August.)
• Getting a “high” rolldown slot
  If IM Brasil or IM UK had been a race with floating slots (as mentioned above, this is possible but not certain), the slots would have rolled down quite far to “local” athletes doing their home IM. Obviously, knowing that there would have been a number of races would have impacted who would have raced there.
• Podium results, but no wins
  Athletes such as Jens Petersen-Bach (qualified by finishing second at IM Italy and IM Malaysia and finishing fourth at IM Lanzarote) or Mike Philipps (second IM Barcelona, fourth IM Switzerland, fifth at IM New Zealand and winner 70.3 Taupo) have been able to collect a number of KPR points, but would have missed qualifying under the new system.
• Athletes having raced well in Kona or at 70.3 Champs
  With the KPR system, a good result in Kona or at the 70.3 Champs was almost good enough to secure a Kona slot. This season, Ben Hoffmann, James Cunnama, Annabel Luxford or Emma Pallant were able to qualify even without winning an IM.

Implications

Here are some consequences of the new system to be aware of:

• Less Racing Required
  To Qualify With the new system, you can secure your Kona slot as a Pro with just one good race, addressing the main criticism of the old KPR system that it forced athletes to race too much. This also offers better chances to qualify for athletes that have been injured or pregnant in the previous season.
• Some Luck Required
  As most races have just one slot available, one “superstar” showing up can severely decrease the chances for everyone else in the field. Especially second-tier athletes will need some luck to pick a race without any strong athletes racing there in order to qualify.
• Earlier but Final Rolldown Decisions
  With the KPR, all decisions about accepting or declining slots happens at the cutoff dates in late July and August. The new system pushes these decisions to right after the qualifying race. Once a slot is assigned, it won’t get re-assigned even if that athlete decides not to race Kona after all (maybe because of an injury).
• Decreased Weight of Kona (and 70.3s)
  In the past, a Top 10 in Kona (or a good result at 70.3 Worlds) gave you a solid head start for next season qualifying, and lots of athletes secured their slots just by adding a finish in a late-season IM. With the new system, even a fourth place in Kona does not give you any help for the following year.
• Still no Equality in Kona
  As almost all IMs have more male than female Pros, the majority of the floating slots is likely to get assigned to the men. (A likely distribution of the 24 floating slots is 18 MPRO and 6 WPRO, leading to a total of about 55 male and 42 female Pros in Kona.)
• Number of Qualifiers Tied to Number of Pro Races
  Changes in the Pro racing calendar (adding/removing races) would impact the number of total available slots for Kona. This will have a bigger influence on 70.3 Worlds Qualifying that will use almost the same system (1 base slot per gender, no floating slots) but has a larger number of races in the calendar (about 75 70.3s with a Pro category).