This post looks at Kona Pro Qualifying before the remaining races before the August cutoff:
|19-Aug||IM||IM Mont Tremblant||P-2000|
(The results from 70.3 Steelhead and 70.3 Dun Laoghaire did not influence the race for the August slots.)
There are more Ironman and 70.3 races in August, but they are already part of 2019 qualifying. The August qualifiers for 2018 are determined on August 19th.
The following analysis is built on the available start lists posted by Ironman and assumes that there are not going to be any late entries. As always, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.
August 18th: Updated after IM Sweden, August 19th: Updated after 70.3 Bintan
There are 7 Kona points slots (not counting the athletes already qualified in July) for the female Pros in August. The following table lists the athletes currently occupying the qualifying slots:
|(2)||Yvonne Van Vlerken||5.100||3+1||expected to decline (not interested in racing Kona)|
|7||Camilla Lindholm Borg||3.920||3+1|
The following table lists what each of the athletes will need who are on one of the start lists and who can still overtake Katharina (who was initially the athlete in the last qualifying spot with 3.620 points), even if that is probably not going to be enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass Katharina, there are likely others that leap further ahead). In brackets I have added the (result) that will be needed to be quite certain of a slot (regardless of where others may finish, “n/a” meaning that even with a win a slot is not assured). For the women, the “magic number” of points to qualify in August should be just below 4.200, anyone who can pass Katja should be safe:
|Liz Blatchford||3.535||1+2||IM Mont Tremblant||8th (5th)|
|Lauren Brandon||3.210||2+2||IM Mont Tremblant||4th (2nd)|
|Meredith Kessler||3.205||1+2||IM Mont Tremblant||5th (3rd)|
* Similar to Yvonne Van Vlerken, Kim Morrison has indicated that she would decline a Kona slot.
Update August 10th: With Sara no longer in the mix for an August slot, the cutoff will probably occur somewhere between Katja and Camilla, likely around 4.000 points. This slightly reduces the needed finishes, in most scenarios athletes should qualify by finishing one rank further down than listed above.
There are a lot more athletes registered for the remaining August races, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.
August 19th: Updated after IM Copenhagen
There are 10 Kona points slots (not counting the athletes qualified in July) for the male Pros in August. The following table lists the male Pros in the direct qualifying ranks:
|–||Ben Kanute||3.200||0+2||not validated, no known IM plans|
|11||Tim Don||3.160||1+2||registered for IM Copenhagen (should be safe with a 7th)|
|–||Sam Appleton||3.105||0+2||not validated, no known IM plans|
Boris Stein still needs an Ironman finish to be eligible for a slot. He is registered for IM Copenhagen and “just finishing” will secure a points slot for him. With Ben Kanute and Sam Appleton not being eligible for Kona (no Ironman finish), this means that currently Nick Baldwin occupies the last direct qualifying slot, but it’s safe to assume that a number of athletes are going to score and that more than 3.100 points will be needed.
The next table lists what each of the athletes will need who are on one of the start lists and who can still get to at least 3.105 points, even if that is probably not going to be enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass that mark, there are likely others that leap further ahead). In brackets I have added the (result) that will be needed to be quite certain of a slot (regardless of where others may finish, “n/a” meaning that even with a win a slot is not assured). For the men I consider 3.500 to be the “magic number” for an August slot, anyone who can pass Callum should be safe:
|Joe Gambles||2.885||1+2||IM Mont Tremblant||8th (5th)|
|Jeff Symonds||2.320||2+0||IM Mont Tremblant||4th (3rd)|
|Sam Long||2.305||3+1||IM Mont Tremblant||3rd (2nd)|
|Matthew Russell||2.080||2+2||IM Mont Tremblant||3rd (2nd)|
* Andrej Vistica has announced that he will skip IM Copenhagen and is therefore out of the qualifying game.
As for the women, there are a lot more athletes registered for the remaining August races, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.