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Ironman Cozumel 2015 (Nov 29th) – Predictions

CozumelLogoUpdate Nov 19th: Shortly after the start list was released, there were a few cancellations. So far Doug MacLean, Rachel Joyce, Melanie McQuaid and Molly Roohi confirmed that they won’t be racing. Since the original release on Tuesday, Ironman has updated the start list, also removing Ivan Rana.

Update Nov 26th: According to the latest version of the start list there are some more DNS: Amanda Stevens, Carrie Lester, and Tami Ritchie on the female side, and Gilbert Arangure, Scott Defilippis, Thomas Gerlach, Luis Alejandro Lombana Pena, Jonathan Rodriguez Barney, and Juan Carlos Zuniga on the male side.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:18:40 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:06:58
2010 Andy Potts (USA) 08:15:57 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:07:08
2011 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:23:52 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:14:08
2012 Ivan Rana (ESP) 08:15:07 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:15:38
2013 Michael Weiss (AUT) 07:55:23 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:52:28
2014 Michael Weiss (AUT) 08:12:16 Nicola Spirig (SWI) 09:14:07

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michael Weiss AUT 00:50:28 04:22:20 02:55:22 08:12:16
2 Matt Chrabot USA 00:44:27 04:44:28 02:57:02 08:29:50
3 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:44:25 04:44:43 02:56:41 08:30:17

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Nicola Spirig SWI 00:47:12 05:15:03 03:06:19 09:14:07
2 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:49:08 05:11:02 03:13:08 09:17:30
3 Kelly Williamson USA 00:49:24 05:33:53 02:57:02 09:24:41

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:16 Michael Weiss 2014-11-30
Swim overall 00:41:48 John Kenny 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:44:05 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Total female 09:06:58 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2009-11-29
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 02:57:02 Kelly Williamson 2014-11-30

The 2013 race had a shortened swim, therefore the times are not eligible for course records.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 06:12.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Based on the wind, conditions in Cozumel can change quite a lot, impacting both the swim (such as 2012) and the bike (such as 2014).

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 09:23 06:57 01:41 -00:40 27 09:23 06:57 01:41 -00:40
2010 07:36 00:56 13:27 -04:56 30 08:29 03:56 07:34 -02:48
2011 11:05 01:42 12:44 02:13 40 09:21 03:12 09:17 -01:08
2012 05:27 -04:03 07:10 -00:20 55 08:23 01:23 08:46 -00:56
2014 -02:31 03:18 -01:24 -00:06 31 06:12 01:46 06:44 -00:46

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Michael Weiss AUT 08:16:07 08:32:04 00:52:22 04:20:56 02:57:49 25
2 2 Ivan Rana ESP 08:17:52 08:24:55 00:46:23 04:36:33 02:49:56 11
3 7 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:19:59 08:27:45 00:47:10 04:29:23 02:58:26 14
4 35 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:20:53 08:33:03 00:47:36 04:31:44 02:56:33 27
5 19 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:27:35 08:33:55 00:50:33 04:40:05 02:51:57 29
6 4 Matt Hanson USA 08:28:21 08:47:41 00:52:32 04:42:11 02:48:38 73
7 41 Stefan Schmid GER 08:30:23 08:40:43 00:51:33 04:34:45 02:59:05 51
8 8 Justin Daerr USA 08:35:59 08:45:00 00:51:06 04:39:55 02:59:58 65
9 9 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:36:00 08:54:20 00:51:38 04:41:08 02:58:14 104
10 5 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:37:05 08:46:48 00:52:01 04:37:03 03:03:02 71
11 11 Barrett Brandon USA 08:39:31 08:56:14 00:47:14 04:47:22 02:59:55 (115)
12 42 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:40:31 08:54:20 00:51:51 04:37:18 03:06:22 104
13 6 Matthew Russell USA 08:42:07 08:55:37 00:56:00 04:39:14 03:01:53 112
14 3 Chris McDonald AUS 08:42:10 08:51:01 00:51:56 04:39:30 03:05:44 85
15 23 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:47:07 09:01:14 00:52:31 04:38:15 03:11:21 129
16 43 Raul Tejada GTM 08:50:25 09:10:05 00:51:45 04:45:50 03:07:49 (176)
17 33 Matic Modic SLO 08:50:33 09:04:30 00:53:31 04:44:45 03:07:17 147
18 18 Scott Defilippis USA 08:50:50 09:11:33 00:54:39 04:52:33 02:58:39 181
19 30 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:52:12 09:00:53 00:47:08 04:47:58 03:12:06 128
20 38 Vincent Riess AUT 08:58:01 09:18:37 00:53:20 04:59:50 02:59:51 (217)
21 25 Nicolas Hemet FRA 09:01:10 09:14:40 00:54:37 04:45:09 03:16:24 196
22 16 Matthew Curbeau USA 09:03:12 09:15:46 00:54:12 04:45:33 03:18:27 202
23 39 Ivan Risti ITA 09:05:00 09:11:42 00:47:45 04:56:19 03:15:55 184
24 14 Greg Close USA 09:08:09 09:16:50 00:56:05 04:56:56 03:10:08 206
25 32 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:09:59 09:27:26 00:51:41 04:59:55 03:13:24 243
26 22 Raul Furtado BRA 09:10:03 09:30:16 00:52:00 04:44:14 03:28:49 257
27 31 Douglas MacLean USA 09:16:43 09:25:38 00:56:24 05:02:09 03:13:11 239
28 28 Frederic Limousin FRA 09:19:37 09:37:30 00:52:56 04:57:40 03:24:01 (292)
29 24 Oliver Gonzalez MEX 09:34:58 09:52:20 00:49:56 05:24:59 03:15:04 (341)
30 47 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:40:23 09:59:22 00:56:05 05:04:05 03:35:12 (364)
31 27 Peter Kotland CZE 09:43:19 09:57:08 00:57:17 05:02:42 03:38:20 357
32 36 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:49:16 10:17:37 00:49:33 05:07:09 03:47:34 (420)
33 45 Richard Wygand BRA 10:09:27 10:34:23 01:04:01 05:16:08 03:44:18 (465)
34 17 Rod De Kanel FRA 10:22:44 10:42:38 00:51:16 05:10:37 04:15:51 (474)
35 15 Luca Cozza ITA 10:40:49 11:01:17 00:57:56 05:15:36 04:22:16 (482)
10 Gilbert Arangure USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Vinicius Canhedo BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Eduardo Chong MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Matteo Fontana ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Jorge Luis Fuentes MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Tyler Jordan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
29 Luis Alejandro Lombana Pena COL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Jeremy Morel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
37 Jason Reinhardt USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Jonathan Rodriguez Barney COL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
46 Juan Carlos Zuniga MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 56 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:00:35 09:06:50 00:50:15 04:57:16 03:08:04 2
2 55 Leanda Cave GBR 09:12:56 09:27:39 00:49:32 05:03:13 03:15:11 22
3 60 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:15:51 09:17:58 00:50:00 05:00:14 03:20:38 11
4 59 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:17:47 09:23:43 00:57:53 05:03:05 03:11:49 17
5 58 Carrie Lester AUS 09:20:44 09:31:25 00:52:42 05:05:03 03:18:00 26
6 62 Amanda Stevens USA 09:21:27 09:31:17 00:49:28 05:07:43 03:19:17 25
7 57 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:26:46 09:35:57 00:53:30 05:06:37 03:21:39 38
8 66 Danielle Mack USA 09:27:51 09:45:27 01:00:52 05:06:21 03:15:38 51
9 64 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:28:44 09:36:20 00:47:40 05:10:04 03:25:59 39
10 63 Melanie McQuaid CAN 09:33:41 09:46:18 00:55:59 05:05:58 03:26:44 (55)
11 67 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:37:00 09:50:53 00:51:07 05:07:41 03:33:13 68
12 65 Emma Kate Lidbury GBR 09:38:33 09:57:02 00:52:44 05:14:11 03:26:37 (82)
13 86 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:43:46 09:53:09 00:52:31 05:21:32 03:24:44 73
14 78 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:49:29 10:03:08 00:55:07 05:27:00 03:22:22 91
15 81 Karina Ottosen DEN 09:51:22 10:10:20 00:56:54 05:18:35 03:30:53 108
16 74 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:54:12 10:07:48 01:02:42 05:21:39 03:24:51 (104)
17 70 Brooke Brown CAN 09:54:26 10:13:01 01:02:19 05:18:06 03:29:02 (116)
18 73 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:55:32 10:06:21 01:08:48 05:19:40 03:22:03 99
19 69 Anne Basso FRA 09:57:01 10:15:51 00:57:06 05:23:22 03:31:33 122
20 84 Maggie Rusch USA 10:05:15 10:18:49 00:59:52 05:22:24 03:37:58 130
21 82 Tami Ritchie USA 10:05:41 10:31:55 00:50:51 05:35:28 03:34:21 166
22 83 Molly Roohi USA 10:08:30 10:16:54 01:03:07 05:27:18 03:33:05 (126)
23 72 Caroline Gregory USA 10:08:49 10:29:11 00:54:09 05:38:07 03:31:34 161
24 76 Marina Jurjevic AUS 10:08:49 10:40:54 01:02:43 05:08:16 03:52:49 (173)
25 71 Kate Bruck USA 10:13:22 10:23:49 01:02:01 05:36:42 03:29:40 145
26 75 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:16:48 10:24:55 00:59:12 05:47:58 03:24:39 151
27 85 Erin Spitler USA 10:28:44 10:33:50 01:03:57 05:21:40 03:58:07 168
28 68 Christine Avelar USA 10:35:32 10:55:50 00:53:26 05:32:58 04:04:09 (179)
29 80 Carla Moreno BRA 10:53:22 11:21:00 00:54:27 06:07:48 03:46:07 (183)
30 79 Maria Lopez USA 11:27:08 11:49:05 01:08:58 05:44:04 04:29:06 (183)
77 Jennifer Kryzanowski CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
87 Amanda Wendorff USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Cozumel doesn’t have a clear male favorite: Michael Weiss, Ivan Rana and Tyler Butterfield are very close in their abilities, but Ivan and Tyler have raced in Kona and may not be in the best position for a great race. (After placing 12th in Kona a third place in Cozumel should already take care of qualifying for Ivan, and Tyler only needs a validation race after his 5th place for a 2016 slot.) Patrik Nilsson declined his Kona slot to race (and win!) his home Ironman race in Sweden, he has had great results in fall 2014 with winning IM Malaysia and placing second in Western Australia. If Matt Hanson recovers in time from his Kona injuries when he crashed early in the bike, he will look to deliver a similar performance to his Texas win from earlier in the year. At least five strong contenders – next to impossible to predict who will end up on top even without taking other Ironman winners such as Alessandro Degasperi, Justin Daerr, Trevor Wurtele, Matt Russell or Chris McDonald into account.

  • Michael Weiss: 23% (3-1)
  • Ivan Rana: 22% (4-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 21% (4-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 15% (6-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 8% (11-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 6% (16-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 2% (40-1)

Female Race Participants

There is a clear statistical front-runner in the women’s race: Rachel Joyce is looking to validate her Kona slot after her great second place in Kona. But (Rachel Joyce has announced she won’t be racing, obviously that significantly changes the odds of the other athletes.) I would put Kona 2012 Champion Leanda Cave on a similar level to Rachel, especially considering that Leanda will be very motivated after her crash in Kona (and subsequent DNF) – and the last time they raced each other over the long distance at IM Texas earlier this year, Leanda finished ahead of Rachel. Carrie Lester has been in great shape this year (2nd in Roth, winning at IM Chattanooga), and a podium result in Cozumel would put her in a great position for Kona qualifying. Corinne Abraham (had to decline her Kona slot with an injury) and Camilla Pedersen (8th in Kona) are two more strong racers. Amanda Stevens has just raced IM Arizona, I don’t expect her to start in Cozumel as well. There are a number of other athletes to watch in the race: Heather Wurtele (can she finally break through with a good IM marathon?), Danielle Mack (winner of IM Boulder and IM Canada), Celine Schaerer (currently the best IM swimmer, looking for a good IM race after changing coaches), Dede Griesbauer (wants to have another shot at racing well in Kona) – a long list of athletes that will be competing for the ten money slots.

  • Rachel Joyce: 54% (1-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 19% (4-1) 40% (2-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 9% (10-1) 19% (4-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 7% (13-1) 13% (7-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 5% (20-1) 11% (8-1)
  • Camilla Pedersen: 3% (32-1) 11% (8-1)

Ironman Arizona 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual IM Arizona was very quick, especially on the bike: A bike adjustment of 20:25 was the main contributor to an overall adjustment of 22:52, the quickest in Arizona so far. Even with the great conditions, the two new bike course records by Andy Starykowicz (4:03:35) and Meredith Kessler (4:42:13) are great performances.

Conditions on the run were a bit different this year: With rain and cold temperatures there were not too many “explosions” but some athletes were shivering and having trouble keeping their temperature up. But the effect on times was quite low, at least for the Pro athletes as they only hit the rain once they were on the run. (Different than in Whistler this year when the rain hit the Pro field at the start of the bike and a lot of athletes struggled with hypothermia.)

Male Race Results

As expected Andy Starykowicz took the lead shortly after T1 and dominated the bike leg with a 4:03:35, improving on Jordan Rapp’s bike record by more than ten minutes. Andy now has the three fastest Ironman bike legs (4:02:17 Florida 13, 4:03 Arizona 15 and 4:04 Florida 12). He had an almost 13 minute lead into T2. He was running well for the first half of the marathon, but Lionel Sanders was eating into his lead. When Andy struggled around mile 17 and had to walk for a bit, Lionel took the lead and won the race with a sub-8 finish time. Brent McMahon had the best marathon of the day and finished in second place, securing his Kona slot for next October. TJ Tollakson took the last spot on the podium, he also managed to overtake Andy shortly before the finish. Jordan Rapp wasn’t fresh enough after Kona a few weeks ago and took fifth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:54:04 04:13:38 02:47:07 07:58:22 -17:05 US$ 20000
2 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:08 04:23:32 02:46:25 08:00:57 06:39 US$ 10000
3 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:14 04:16:23 02:54:45 08:04:17 -13:23 US$ 6500
4 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:49:12 04:03:35 03:09:04 08:05:56 -10:10 US$ 4000
5 Jordan Rapp USA 00:52:34 04:15:49 02:55:28 08:08:05 00:42 US$ 3000
6 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:49:17 04:18:25 03:01:15 08:12:55 -05:06 US$ 2000
7 Kevin Collington USA 00:49:14 04:29:32 02:53:51 08:16:25 n/a US$ 1500
8 David Plese SLO 00:53:28 04:25:50 02:53:21 08:17:06 -01:27 US$ 1250
9 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:53:49 04:21:12 03:01:16 08:20:55 -08:18 US$ 1000
10 David Naesvik SWE 00:54:22 04:26:09 03:04:28 08:29:04 -07:30 US$ 750
11 Marko Albert EST 00:47:06 04:24:38 03:14:43 08:29:46 15:31  
12 Bryan McCrystal IRL 01:02:54 04:16:34 03:07:14 08:30:50 -20:15  
13 Matic Modic SLO 00:55:54 04:27:45 03:05:43 08:33:54 -04:31  
14 Miguel Fidalgo Rossell ESP 00:49:16 04:29:52 03:16:33 08:39:37 19:41  
15 Dirk Wijnalda NED 00:59:14 04:31:59 03:05:38 08:40:38 06:26  
16 James Chesson USA 00:57:24 04:37:16 03:06:08 08:45:27 -04:13  
17 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:55:48 04:35:58 03:09:59 08:45:54 -16:43  
18 Jozsef Major HUN 00:57:43 04:32:09 03:13:09 08:47:57 16:48  
19 Colin Laughery USA 01:00:27 04:37:56 03:08:16 08:52:33 03:05  
20 Dylan Gleeson CAN 00:53:53 04:43:47 03:11:05 08:52:50 -19:55  
21 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:02:45 04:33:02 03:11:08 08:53:59 14:57  
22 Douglas MacLean USA 00:57:30 04:48:40 03:06:58 08:58:39 01:38  
23 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:49:26 04:51:22 03:16:38 09:02:10 -19:29  
24 Patrick Bless GER 00:56:25 04:56:27 03:04:36 09:03:01 01:13  
25 Brent Mcburney USA 00:57:24 04:48:35 03:14:41 09:04:57 -1:07:05  
26 Derek Lantz CAN 01:00:29 04:57:00 03:04:17 09:06:41 n/a  
27 Gilian Oriet SUI 00:56:20 04:48:52 03:20:07 09:10:33 -28:20  
28 Elmar Heger GER 00:54:18 04:43:53 03:39:38 09:22:31 -16:08  
29 Anthony Toth CAN 00:57:40 04:46:25 03:34:19 09:24:38 25:03  
30 Nathan Dressel USA 01:00:16 05:06:00 03:36:42 09:48:24 n/a  
31 Mario Radevic GER 01:08:35 04:52:16 03:49:39 09:55:28 04:49  
32 Joe Umphenour USA 00:49:05 04:42:54 05:35:50 11:12:42 1:47:26  
33 Arland Macasieb PHI 01:09:54 06:12:30 04:08:50 12:14:52 1:22:28  
  Matthew Russell USA 00:56:37 04:21:18   DNF  
  Raymond Botelho USA 00:55:51 04:23:50   DNF  
  Thomas Gerlach USA 00:53:36 04:26:45   DNF  
  Drew Scott USA 00:49:07 04:34:24   DNF  
  Christopher Bagg USA 00:53:52 04:32:28   DNF  
  Lewis Elliot USA 00:54:16 04:39:23   DNF  
  Andrew Fast USA 00:59:26 04:44:57   DNF  
  Karl Bordine USA 01:03:00 04:46:08   DNF  
  Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 01:04:23 05:09:15   DNF  
  Daniel Herlbauer AUT 00:53:48     DNF  
  Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:54:15     DNF  
  Robert Duncan USA 01:01:20     DNF  
  James Lubinski USA 01:07:47     DNF  

Female Race Results

The female race was dominated by three athletes who wanted to end the year on a high note after not so good races in Kona: Meredith Kessler finished but was the last female Pro finisher – in Tempe we saw a different Meredith defend her title from last year. She posted the best swim and bike legs (and a new bike course record), leading by more than ten minutes in T2. She then went on to have a solid second best marathon and won with a new personal best Ironman time of 8:44:00. Second place went to Amanda Stevens who made after an uncharacteristic slow swim had a good bike leg and was the only one running faster than Meredith. Amanda’s 8:52:31 is also an Ironman PR for her and the first time she was able to finish under 9 hours. Julia Gajer had a good swim and bike but then had to work on the run for her third place finish. Darby Roberts had a great tun to finish fourth, and Michelle Vesterby was too tired after Kona to finish better than fifth but is now also safe for Kona 2016.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:48:25 04:42:13 03:08:58 08:44:00 -14:51 US$ 20000
2 Amanda Stevens USA 00:51:07 04:50:10 03:06:39 08:52:31 -18:50 US$ 10000
3 Julia Gajer GER 00:51:05 04:52:06 03:15:06 09:03:15 10:58 US$ 6500
4 Darbi Roberts USA 00:51:41 04:56:59 03:12:00 09:05:10 -15:28 US$ 4000
5 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:52:52 04:54:34 03:19:45 09:11:31 13:33 US$ 3000
6 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:56:22 04:54:43 03:16:23 09:13:13 -08:51 US$ 2000
7 Melanie McQuaid CAN 00:56:12 04:51:28 03:22:40 09:14:14 06:10 US$ 1500
8 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:54:50 05:06:09 03:09:43 09:14:59 06:18 US$ 1250
9 Christina Jackson USA 00:51:11 04:57:21 03:22:26 09:15:32 -18:57 US$ 1000
10 Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:07:12 04:53:56 03:20:33 09:26:12 05:57 US$ 750
11 Christine Fletcher CAN 00:57:46 04:59:41 03:32:19 09:35:54 -12:08  
12 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:01:05 05:09:36 03:19:32 09:37:18 -46:06  
13 Neilia Bliss USA 01:00:55 05:10:33 03:28:10 09:45:37 -12:51  
14 Sarah Graves USA 01:09:40 05:07:13 03:29:50 09:53:46 09:11  
15 Richele Frank CAN 01:11:02 05:07:07 03:33:07 10:01:23 -13:53  
16 Rahel Bellinga NED 01:02:48 05:00:16 03:53:54 10:03:25 -05:24  
17 Kathryn King GBR 01:05:07 05:18:08 03:41:05 10:10:26 -20:26  
18 Hayley Benson USA 01:00:44 05:27:53 03:41:11 10:17:04 n/a  
19 Cori Burnett USA 00:57:37 05:28:50 03:50:39 10:27:40 -17:54  
20 Katy Cargiulo USA 01:01:56 05:39:16 03:40:45 10:29:09 01:29  
21 Kara Lapoint USA 01:06:41 05:43:38 03:56:45 10:57:55 n/a  
22 Lauren Thompson USA 01:02:28 05:28:58 04:20:47 11:00:53 n/a  
23 Ali Black USA 01:07:18 05:17:42 05:11:52 11:43:17 1:28:16  
  Amber Ferreira USA 00:57:41 05:03:06   DNF  
  Sarah Jarvis USA 00:57:38 05:10:16   DNF  
  Laurel Wassner USA 00:55:42 05:15:04   DNF  
  Carrie Mccoy USA 01:21:33 05:46:24   DNF  
  Sarah Haskins USA 00:48:29     DNF  
  Lisa Roberts USA 01:02:48     DNF  

Ironman Malaysia 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, IM Malaysia was hot and humid, leading to slow runs and a number of explosions and DNFs. The swim and bike weren’t fast either, but most of the “slowness” comes from the run (-10:44). Compared to the other years in Malaysia, it was one of the slowest, but very comparable to last year. The overall course rating (including Pro races from 2006 onward) is now -7:41 with the run even slower (-9:59).

A good thing was to see the increase of the increased number of Pros starting and finishing: Last year there were 21 finishers (from 27 starters), this year there were 42 finishers (from 55 Pro starters).

Male Race Results

Bike leader Romain Guillaume was one of those suffering on the run: His ten minute gap in T2 only lasted 15k into the run when Mike Aigroz, Frederik Croneborg and Harry Wiltshire took the lead. (Romain ended up in 20th place after placing 19th in Kona – he’ll need some more points to qualify!) Mike won the final sprint with 10 seconds over Fredrik, Harry took the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Mike Aigroz SUI 00:49:17 04:49:25 03:08:46 08:52:02 -12:07 US$ 8000
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:50:24 04:48:18 03:09:02 08:52:12 -09:17 US$ 4000
3 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:49:13 04:49:31 03:11:55 08:55:01 -19:54 US$ 3000
4 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:49:17 04:55:05 03:11:31 09:00:49 -01:55 US$ 2500
5 Tohara Kaito JPN 00:54:10 04:53:55 03:08:36 09:01:19 -41:34 US$ 1500
6 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:55:50 04:45:40 03:19:14 09:06:24 -06:31 US$ 1000
7 Christian Brader GER 00:59:37 04:50:14 03:13:36 09:08:52 -03:48
8 Chris Legh AUS 00:54:06 04:48:01 03:27:33 09:14:20 -16:04
9 Daniil Sapunov UKR 00:50:03 04:59:38 03:19:25 09:15:24 n/a
10 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:51:12 05:09:16 03:09:36 09:18:23 -00:04
11 Freddy Lampret ZAF 00:54:08 04:50:41 03:30:00 09:19:26 -56:13
12 Steven Osborne GBR 00:56:49 05:14:17 03:05:42 09:22:54 -23:56
13 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:56:09 04:41:56 03:42:56 09:26:33 27:50
14 Cedric Lassonde FRA 00:56:27 04:51:25 03:40:36 09:34:33 13:23
15 Carl Read NZL 00:56:04 05:15:22 03:19:38 09:42:22 27:13
16 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 00:51:56 05:28:24 03:26:50 09:58:02 11:07
17 Guy Crawford NZL 00:53:42 04:55:06 04:08:44 10:03:22 38:20
18 Peter Seidel GER 00:56:09 04:55:42 04:42:23 10:39:45 1:05:23
19 Michael Louys BEL 01:03:08 05:00:35 04:31:10 10:41:48 54:02
20 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:49:14 04:39:14 05:08:38 10:41:49 1:37:06
21 Brad Williams USA 00:57:42 05:03:46 04:36:49 10:44:46 1:12:41
22 Vincent Depuiset FRA 01:12:53 05:20:18 04:04:31 10:45:08 35:34
23 Yvan Jarrige FRA 00:49:23 06:32:16 03:35:29 11:05:42 n/a
24 Petr Vabrousek CZE 01:00:20 05:37:07 04:56:21 11:44:28 1:20:29
25 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:14:23 07:23:26 05:04:05 13:58:09 1:36:18
26 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:14:23 06:57:45 05:48:47 14:10:42 1:49:16
Balazs Csoke HUN 00:49:10 04:51:17 DNF
Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:50:46 05:05:25 DNF
Yu Shinozaki JPN 00:57:44 07:01:21 DNF
Paul Ambrose AUS 00:49:20 DNF
Markus Mlinar AUT 00:59:31 DNF
Young Hwan Oh KOR 01:04:38 DNF

Female Race Results

Defending champion Diana Riesler took control of the race early on the bike and never looked back, winning by more than 12 minutes. Second place went to Gurutze Frades who made up a lot of ground with a race best 3:15 run – a new run record! Ironman legend Natascha Badmann who had a solid day to finish in third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:34 05:02:38 03:29:37 09:37:06 -09:54 US$ 8000
2 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 01:03:55 05:25:04 03:15:02 09:49:09 -28:40 US$ 4000
3 Natascha Badmann SUI 01:03:56 05:14:13 03:30:21 09:54:07 00:56 US$ 3000
4 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:58:37 05:08:05 03:46:02 09:58:26 -06:18 US$ 2500
5 Saleta Castro ESP 00:56:24 05:25:42 03:32:43 10:00:23 -30:39 US$ 1500
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:57:28 05:23:49 03:40:47 10:08:01 -13:03 US$ 1000
7 Lucie Reed CZE 00:54:40 05:43:58 03:32:07 10:17:25 10:10
8 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:11:59 05:29:23 03:31:03 10:17:25 -04:00
9 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:01:54 05:24:55 03:47:28 10:19:50 13:30
10 Angela Kuehnlein GER 01:03:55 05:44:56 03:39:27 10:33:39 -19:20
11 Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:56:51 05:39:35 03:56:16 10:37:59 21:28
12 Michelle Duffield AUS 01:03:54 05:35:17 04:04:06 10:49:36 17:46
13 Mami Ishii JPN 01:03:41 05:48:51 04:00:55 10:58:53 -1:01:44
14 Tineke Van den Berg NED 01:07:16 05:31:41 04:07:56 10:59:35 47:35
15 Emma Graaf SWE 01:01:30 05:48:41 04:33:35 11:34:28 58:41
16 Bree Wee USA 00:57:54 06:00:53 05:09:50 12:13:48 1:06:11
Jeanne Collonge FRA 01:00:28 05:27:48 DNF
Caroline Livesey GBR 01:00:24 05:31:16 DNF
Anna Halasz HUN 01:12:40 05:22:20 DNF
Maki Nishiuchi JPN 00:57:06 05:39:27 DNF
Carole Fuchs THA 01:13:08 05:31:15 DNF
Jocelyn Mccauley USA 00:58:42 06:18:11 DNF
Kathrin Walther GER 01:00:18 DNF

Announcing the 2016 KPR Observer

The Kona Pro Ranking (or KPR for short) is the system used to determine which Professional triathletes qualify for the Ironman World Championships in Kona.

2016 Title Thumb My 2016 KPR Observer makes understanding and following the KPR rankings easy. It consists of an Initial Information Package about the KPR and ongoing updates via EMail during the season.

The Initial Information Package (delivered right after the release planned for November 20th) contains:

  • a description of how the KPR works in qualifying Pros for Kona
  • base predictions of the men’s and women’s cutoff
  • graphs and descriptions of the current KPR standings

During the season, there will be at least six EMail Updates (and probably ten) about the KPR Standings, who is already in, who is close to qualifying, how many slots are still open and updated estimates of where the cutoffs will occur.

FraserFraser Cartmell, Kona Pro qualifier in 2015, subscribed to last year’s KPR Observer:

Thanks for the support along the way on my Kona ’15 journey and your help discussing the KPR – it was appreciated!

 

If you want to qualify as a Pro, coach a Pro athlete, write about professional Ironman racing or are otherwise interested in the KPR, this is must-read information!

MatthewHere’s what Matthew Rose of Dynamo Multisport, coach to Kona 2015 Pro qualifier Haley Chura, says about my work:

I view your work as ‘Enterprise type’ quality research, it’s the best in the triathlon business. I wish I could actually pay you on par with the value you provide!

The time you’ll save with the KPR Observer is easily worth the price of 39$ for the full season.

Order today at https://gum.co/2016KPR or click on the button below:

Get 2016 KPR Observer

Ironman Malaysia 2015 (Nov 14th) – Predictions

IMMalaysiaLogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:36:33 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 10:08:13
2007 Xavier Le Floch (FRA) 08:43:52 Nicole Leder (GER) 09:42:33
2008 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:34:42 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:29:21
2009 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:26:48 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:21:10
2010 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:22:31 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:23:33
2014 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 08:41:53 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:26:38

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:49:49 04:40:31 03:05:37 08:41:53
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:53:34 04:49:56 03:10:00 08:58:45
3 Karol Dzalaj SVK 00:56:05 04:47:03 03:26:21 09:15:00

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:11 04:58:44 03:23:11 09:26:38
2 Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:56:51 05:28:43 03:29:23 10:00:13
3 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 01:04:11 05:25:17 03:26:33 10:02:03

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:10:35 Bryan Rhodes 2002-01-27
Swim overall 00:46:19 Dylan McNeice 2014-09-27
Bike overall 04:21:01 Marino Vanhoenacker 2010-02-27
Run overall 02:56:27 Jason Shortis 2006-02-26
Total female 09:21:10 Belinda Granger 2009-02-28
Swim female 00:50:45 Nina Kraft 2007-02-28
Bike female 04:48:08 Belinda Granger 2009-02-28
Run female 03:17:36 Nicole Leder 2007-02-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Malaysia is – 19:30.

Race Adjustments for IM Malaysia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2014 -19:30 -02:07 -01:26 -12:09 19 -19:30 -02:07 -01:26 -12:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Malaysia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 20 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:58:00 08:44:46 00:56:16 04:43:40 03:13:04 66
2 1 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:58:59 08:42:30 00:50:41 04:42:16 03:21:02 59
3 15 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:59:32 08:54:10 00:49:33 04:53:01 03:11:58 106
4 28 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 09:00:44 08:47:32 00:53:42 04:52:27 03:09:35 79
5 2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 09:02:11 08:43:23 00:54:09 04:53:15 03:09:46 60
6 11 Mike Aigroz SUI 09:04:52 08:46:15 00:50:58 04:49:14 03:19:40 72
7 5 Paul Ambrose AUS 09:05:34 08:49:42 00:52:22 04:46:30 03:21:42 85
8 13 Mauro Baertsch SUI 09:09:18 08:58:50 00:55:52 04:54:40 03:13:46 125
9 12 Christian Brader GER 09:14:30 08:54:12 00:59:27 04:56:58 03:13:05 107
10 29 Carl Read NZL 09:15:07 09:01:25 00:54:40 05:01:55 03:13:32 136
11 7 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:17:22 09:07:17 00:50:12 04:55:56 03:26:15 161
12 18 Todd Israel AUS 09:17:31 09:02:48 00:53:33 04:59:11 03:19:48 143
13 10 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:19:03 08:59:38 00:50:18 04:55:00 03:28:45 130
14 9 Elliot Holtham CAN 09:23:04 09:13:19 00:55:47 04:58:59 03:23:18 190
15 37 Thiago Vinhal BRA 09:23:06 09:10:19 00:51:36 05:15:15 03:11:14 179
16 34 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:23:51 09:00:19 00:58:47 04:59:20 03:20:44 131
17 8 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:24:56 09:05:36 00:58:20 04:57:12 03:24:23 158
18 14 Guy Crawford NZL 09:25:23 09:09:40 00:51:03 04:48:26 03:40:54 174
19 31 Peter Seidel GER 09:28:53 09:23:33 00:56:31 04:48:35 03:38:47 (236)
20 4 Chris Legh AUS 09:33:03 09:11:47 00:58:25 04:59:55 03:29:43 (186)
21 27 Steven Osborne GBR 09:34:34 09:33:50 00:59:08 05:17:03 03:13:22 277
22 36 Brad Williams USA 09:35:09 09:26:16 00:59:33 05:02:22 03:28:14 (243)
23 6 Tohara Kaito JPN 09:35:50 09:26:05 00:56:44 05:17:16 03:16:50 242
24 32 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:48:04 09:58:58 00:58:18 04:56:08 03:48:37 363
25 22 Michael Louys BEL 09:48:11 09:31:46 01:04:44 05:05:22 03:33:06 265
26 21 Freddy Lampret ZAF 09:49:01 10:03:07 00:55:20 05:18:09 03:30:31 (373)
27 35 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:49:35 09:31:17 00:59:56 05:07:35 03:37:03 263
28 3 Markus Mlinar AUT 09:50:33 09:50:10 00:58:13 05:07:59 03:39:21 (334)
29 24 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:52:46 09:29:10 00:51:28 05:26:04 03:30:13 (250)
30 16 Vincent Depuiset FRA 10:10:13 09:53:24 01:11:59 05:17:07 03:36:07 348
31 26 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:29:44 10:32:28 01:01:55 05:09:40 04:13:09 (457)
32 25 Young Hwan Oh KOR 11:08:39 10:58:20 01:05:30 05:28:41 04:29:29 (474)
33 33 Josef Svoboda CZE 12:05:59 11:59:40 01:15:28 06:06:17 04:39:13 481
34 23 Marek Nemcik SVK 12:09:45 12:01:04 01:15:24 05:52:43 04:56:39 482
17 Frederic Garcia FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Yvan Jarrige FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Daniil Sapunov UKR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Diana Riesler GER 09:38:43 09:38:25 00:59:51 05:03:49 03:30:03 41
2 52 Haley Chura USA 09:54:00 09:43:05 00:51:20 05:22:15 03:35:25 50
3 47 Kristin Moeller GER 09:55:58 09:33:36 01:06:36 05:26:34 03:17:47 31
4 42 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:57:59 09:38:56 01:04:34 05:10:00 03:38:25 43
5 65 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:59:08 09:36:55 01:00:17 05:21:15 03:32:36 38
6 43 Bree Wee USA 10:04:33 09:42:51 00:56:55 05:23:48 03:38:50 48
7 51 Jeanne Collonge FRA 10:09:04 10:01:57 01:00:32 05:20:33 03:42:59 92
8 44 Keiko Tanaka JPN 10:10:11 10:18:24 00:57:34 05:31:51 03:35:47 132
9 66 Tineke Van den Berg NED 10:11:07 09:55:37 01:08:14 05:17:05 03:40:48 80
10 50 Karen Thibodeau CAN 10:11:45 09:53:01 00:56:35 05:32:01 03:38:09 76
11 54 Jessica Fleming AUS 10:11:53 09:51:33 01:03:34 05:18:02 03:45:18 73
12 46 Sarah Crowley AUS 10:11:54 10:02:27 01:01:00 05:29:02 03:36:52 (94)
13 56 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 10:16:53 10:03:59 01:05:02 05:36:04 03:30:47 97
14 67 Kathrin Walther GER 10:17:40 10:10:08 01:03:09 05:20:49 03:48:42 111
15 62 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:19:08 09:58:38 01:03:53 05:27:43 03:42:32 85
16 49 Monique Grossrieder SUI 10:22:26 10:07:33 01:07:32 05:31:51 03:38:02 (108)
17 45 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:22:27 10:00:13 00:58:35 05:29:26 03:49:27 89
18 57 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:24:14 10:06:50 01:14:26 05:29:20 03:35:28 106
19 59 Anna Halasz HUN 10:25:05 10:17:33 01:10:42 05:24:00 03:45:23 (129)
20 63 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 10:26:20 10:10:33 01:02:09 05:34:12 03:44:58 (112)
21 48 Saleta Castro ESP 10:29:57 10:16:10 00:59:02 05:35:49 03:50:06 127
22 53 Michelle Duffield AUS 10:30:29 10:15:21 01:04:14 05:36:40 03:44:35 125
23 58 Emma Graaf SWE 10:36:53 10:18:29 01:02:34 05:34:10 03:55:10 133
24 64 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:39:21 10:23:56 00:57:02 05:35:20 04:01:59 151
25 61 Angela Kuehnlein GER 11:00:29 10:50:15 01:06:20 05:42:25 04:06:44 (176)
26 60 Mami Ishii JPN 13:11:33 12:59:19 01:04:55 06:05:28 05:56:10 (181)
55 Carole Fuchs THA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The race is pretty open on the male side: Krill Kotshegarov, Alberto Casadei, Frederik Croneborg and Romain Guillaume have very similar chances, and there a number of other athletes that aren’t expected to be too far off:

  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 25% (3-1)
  • Alberto Casadei: 18% (5-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 16% (5-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 14% (6-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 9% (11-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 8% (11-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 4% (23-1)
  • Mauro Baertsch: 3% (35-1)
  • Carl Read: 2% (47-1)

Female Race Participants

Last year’s winner Diana Riesler is the clear favorite for this year as well – provided she has recovered from her DNF in Kona. Haley Chura is still struggling with the injuries she suffered when hit by a car, she was a DNF in Kona and unlikely isn’t able to start in Malaysia. Then there are a number of athletes looking for KPR points in order to qualify for Kona 2016: Kristin Möller and Bree Wee almost qualified in 2015, and Natascha Badmann took some time to recover from her injuries but has already returned to racing with a podium in Vichy.

  • Diana Riesler: 59% (1-1)
  • Haley Chura: 13% (7-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 8% (11-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 7% (13-1)
  • Rebecca Preston: 7% (14-1)
  • Jeanne Collonge: 3% (31-1)
  • Bree Wee: 2% (59-1)
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