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Ironman Cozumel 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The weather in Cozumel was quite favorable for the racers, no strong winds impeded the race on the swim or the bike, and the heat wasn’t too bad on the run.

Male Race Results

Stefan Schmid wasn’t the top favorite to win the race, but he was close to the front after the swim and in the lead into T2. For a good part of the run he was shoulder to shoulder with Patrik Nilsson who DNF’d after the half marathon mark. Stefan was racing well all day, racing faster than expected in all three legs and winning his first Ironman. He missed the course record by only 11 seconds. Second place went to Matt Russell who also had a great day and posted the fastest marathon, but even a 2:47 wasn’t enough to reel in Stefan.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Stefan Schmid GER 00:47:02 04:26:55 02:53:44 08:12:27 -24:38 US$ 20000
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:49:41 04:32:17 02:47:49 08:14:10 -32:30 US$ 10000
3 Michael Weiss AUT 00:49:40 04:29:41 03:00:13 08:24:24 01:08 US$ 6500
4 Barrett Brandon USA 00:43:18 04:44:16 03:02:47 08:35:11 -01:29 US$ 4000
5 Raul Tejada GTM 00:48:56 04:50:39 02:56:12 08:39:14 -10:50 US$ 3000
6 Chris McDonald AUS 00:49:45 04:50:31 03:04:08 08:48:30 06:38 US$ 2000
7 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:49:42 04:42:24 03:14:25 08:51:21 06:15 US$ 1500
8 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:46:51 05:04:34 03:02:23 08:58:47 01:53 US$ 1250
9 Matt Hanson USA 00:49:49 04:53:05 03:17:09 09:03:56 30:39 US$ 1000
10 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:43:59 04:58:58 03:13:40 09:05:35 41:52 US$ 750
11 Nicolas Hemet FRA 00:49:53 05:09:12 03:14:58 09:18:24 18:49
12 Oliver Gonzalez MEX 00:46:53 05:17:39 03:12:30 09:21:46 -14:45
13 Frederic Limousin FRA 00:49:38 05:12:14 03:28:18 09:35:50 19:34
14 Peter Kotland CZE 00:56:26 05:10:46 03:25:22 09:37:27 -09:31
15 Jorge Vazquez MEX 00:49:42 05:10:13 03:49:16 09:54:45 n/a
16 Matthew Curbeau USA 00:49:47 05:26:19 03:38:27 10:00:01 54:11
17 Sergio Quezada MEX 00:48:56 05:10:28 03:56:03 10:00:30 -00:31
18 Eduardo Chong MEX 00:56:17 05:21:31 03:38:17 10:01:52 n/a
19 Tyler Jordan USA 00:53:25 05:21:53 05:31:55 11:54:14 n/a
Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:43:57 04:31:08 DNF
Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:46:57 04:38:40 DNF
Rod De Kanel FRA 00:46:53 05:10:06 DNF
Ivan Risti ITA 00:43:52 DNF
Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:46:56 DNF
Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:47:00 DNF
Justin Daerr USA 00:47:03 DNF
Vincent Riess AUT 00:49:41 DNF
Gilian Oriet SUI 00:53:23 DNF
Richard Wygand BRA 00:58:00 DNF

Female Race Results

The female race saw a bigger group of leaders that only broke up shortly before T2. Emma-Kate Lidbury was leading early in the run, eventually finishing in 5th place. For a while Leanda Cave was in front, but she was overtaken by Corinne Abraham who wasn’t part of the front group but posted the fastest bike and run times. After having to decline her Kona spot because of an injury, Corinne had a great comeback race, winning Cozumel with a new course record. After crashing out of Kona, Leanda Cave finished the 2015 season with a solid second place. She validated her Kona slot, as did Camilla Pedersen in third place who should be safe after her 8th place in Kona. After being in great position in T2, Heather Wurtele didn’t quite have the run she was looking but still finished fourth.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:53:49 05:01:15 03:07:38 09:06:40 -13:01 US$ 20000
2 Leanda Cave GBR 00:47:21 05:05:22 03:16:17 09:13:29 -04:28 US$ 10000
3 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:48:50 05:06:25 03:14:14 09:14:08 00:16 US$ 6500
4 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:48:58 05:04:08 03:23:58 09:21:52 -04:14 US$ 4000
5 Emma-Kate Lidbury GBR 00:48:52 05:02:43 03:32:55 09:29:18 -05:58 US$ 3000
6 Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:48:57 05:13:45 03:23:15 09:29:45 -23:11 US$ 2000
7 Karina Ottosen DEN 00:53:47 05:13:33 03:21:22 09:33:06 -26:57 US$ 1500
8 Erin Spitler USA 01:01:33 05:11:26 03:19:14 09:35:46 -47:32 US$ 1250
9 Brooke Brown CAN 00:56:49 05:19:40 03:21:18 09:43:34 -07:06 US$ 1000
10 Caroline Gregory USA 00:52:13 05:33:53 03:27:24 09:57:51 -14:31 US$ 750
11 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:48:54 05:30:41 03:38:50 10:03:05 20:15
12 Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:02:32 05:25:40 03:31:57 10:05:13 -00:06
13 Anne Basso FRA 00:53:44 05:24:49 03:49:07 10:13:09 07:56
14 Christine Avelar USA 00:52:01 05:31:24 04:03:33 10:35:15 03:24
15 Maria Lopez USA 01:08:31 05:54:07 04:14:54 11:25:45 02:35
Dede Griesbauer USA 00:48:50 05:19:44 DNF
Danielle Mack USA 00:53:54 05:18:28 DNF
Maggie Rusch USA 00:58:39 05:29:29 DNF
Amanda Wendorff USA 00:53:56 05:55:59 DNF
Celine Schaerer SUI 00:47:18 DNF

Ironman Western Australia 2015 (Dec 6th) – Predictions

WALogoUpdate Dec 1st: The latest startlist shows withdrawals by Simon Billeau, Chris Legh, Giles Clayton, Sarah Crowley, Kathrin Walter and Allison Fitch.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Mitchell Anderson (AUS) 08:27:35 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:47:27
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:03:55 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:10:00
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:05:58 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:00:54
2008 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:06 Gina Crawford (NZL) 08:59:24
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:13:59 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:16:52
2010 Courtney Ogden (AUS) 08:14:01 Kate Bevilaqua (AUS) 09:19:44
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:12:39 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:25:38
2012 Jimmy Johnsen (DEN) 08:29:06 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:13:00
2013 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 08:08:16 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 08:59:44
2014 Denis Chevrot (FRA) 08:05:58 Britta Martin (NZL) 08:56:34

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:46:23 04:26:42 02:49:11 08:05:58
2 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:47:04 04:27:50 02:53:37 08:12:11
3 Per Bittner GER 00:48:36 04:26:20 02:56:29 08:14:37

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Britta Martin NZL 00:56:39 04:55:37 03:00:00 08:56:34
2 Mareen Hufe GER 00:58:02 04:44:16 03:14:13 09:00:21
3 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:52:13 04:58:27 03:07:27 09:02:11

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:55 Jason Shortis 2006-12-03
Swim overall 00:44:42 Pete Jacobs 2007-12-01
Bike overall 04:18:07 Mitchell Anderson 2006-12-03
Run overall 02:43:48 Robert Thomas 2007-12-01
Total female 08:56:34 Britta Martin 2014-12-07
Swim female 00:48:25 Tereza Macel 2007-12-01
Bike female 04:44:16 Mareen Hufe 2014-12-07
Run female 02:58:17 Beth Gerdes 2014-12-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 13:05.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 01:54 -02:58 01:52 -02:32 27 01:54 -02:58 01:52 -02:32
2006 16:01 00:31 15:04 02:55 31 08:57 -01:14 08:28 00:12
2007 23:57 00:43 13:40 04:29 47 13:57 -00:35 10:12 01:37
2008 15:30 -00:07 15:24 00:34 39 14:20 -00:28 11:30 01:22
2009 14:55 01:15 14:35 -04:00 25 14:27 -00:07 12:07 00:17
2010 09:38 00:10 10:09 02:05 24 13:39 -00:04 11:48 00:35
2011 03:58 -00:22 09:00 02:33 27 12:16 -00:07 11:24 00:52
2012 13:06 -01:22 08:49 02:36 26 12:22 -00:16 11:04 01:05
2013 16:04 00:07 15:16 06:41 22 of 30 12:47 -00:14 11:32 01:42
2014 15:49 00:58 17:35 04:11 32 of 48 13:05 -00:07 12:09 01:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 7 David Dellow AUS 08:10:47 08:29:29 00:47:44 04:24:31 02:53:31 17
2 1 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:17:33 08:49:41 00:47:14 04:32:30 02:52:49 82
3 2 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:17:47 08:42:37 00:48:42 04:22:40 03:01:25 58
4 5 Christian Kramer GER 08:21:58 08:41:55 00:48:18 04:30:25 02:58:14 56
5 17 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:23:36 08:40:24 00:50:48 04:32:17 02:55:32 50
6 3 Per Bittner GER 08:23:51 08:41:08 00:49:24 04:30:21 02:59:06 54
7 18 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:29:26 08:53:02 00:51:28 04:37:45 02:55:13 95
8 4 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:32:25 08:42:32 00:51:33 04:39:24 02:56:27 57
9 15 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:34:52 08:47:44 00:50:53 04:40:35 02:58:24 74
10 6 Simon Billeau FRA 08:37:47 08:59:12 00:53:41 04:28:49 03:10:16 123
11 10 Tim Reed AUS 08:38:50 08:54:38 00:47:55 04:32:21 03:13:33 (107)
12 20 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:44:16 09:10:09 00:45:19 04:38:09 03:15:48 176
13 21 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:45:32 09:05:34 00:55:39 04:41:11 03:03:42 157
14 9 Chris Legh AUS 08:51:13 09:04:33 00:53:34 04:38:36 03:14:02 148
15 19 Bryan Rhodes NZL 08:51:35 09:11:56 00:47:55 04:37:26 03:21:13 (185)
16 11 Johan Borg AUS 08:58:02 09:29:12 00:55:48 04:42:27 03:14:48 251
17 16 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:02:58 09:18:40 01:06:29 04:46:58 03:04:31 217
12 Giles Clayton AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Allister Caird AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Both Sarah Crowley and Kathrin Walther have said they won’t be racing in Busselton after doing IM Malaysia.

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 31 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:05:23 09:16:23 00:58:39 04:51:07 03:10:37 7
2 33 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:13:55 09:34:18 01:02:25 04:56:40 03:09:49 34
3 32 Mareen Hufe GER 09:15:10 09:37:44 00:59:25 04:50:40 03:20:05 40
4 38 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:24:41 09:38:28 00:57:52 05:05:09 03:16:41 43
5 37 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:25:44 09:46:53 01:01:41 05:02:54 03:16:08 58
6 35 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:32:35 09:53:11 00:57:42 05:02:29 03:27:24 (74)
7 40 Alison Fitch AUS 09:35:26 09:50:08 00:53:16 05:06:26 03:30:44 (66)
8 36 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:36:04 09:58:50 00:56:08 05:07:12 03:27:44 84
9 39 Kathrin Walther GER 09:41:10 10:15:58 01:00:32 05:04:51 03:30:47 123
41 Georgie Rutherford GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Last year’s winner Denis Chevrot is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition in David Dellow who always races well when he’s fit. Luke McKenzie and Christian Kramer want to close the year with a good result after a DNF and a 34st in Kona. Per Bittner is working to qualify for Kona 2016, he already has a 3rd in Barcelona in his KPR total.

  • David Dellow: 34% (2-1)
  • Denis Chevrot: 24% (3-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 19% (4-1)
  • Christian Kramer: 10% (9-1)
  • Per Bittner: 6% (16-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 6% (16-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne Van Vlerken is the clear favorite, but she has been racing a lot even after declining her Kona slot. Her main challengers are Sarah Piampiano (7th in Kona – maybe also not the freshest after a long season of racing) and Mareen Hufe (last year’s second who also raced Kona).

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 57% (1-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 25% (3-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 11% (8-1)
  • Rebecca Preston: 4% (24-1)
  • Dimity-Lee Duke: 2% (65-1)

Ironman Cozumel 2015 (Nov 29th) – Predictions

CozumelLogoUpdate Nov 19th: Shortly after the start list was released, there were a few cancellations. So far Doug MacLean, Rachel Joyce, Melanie McQuaid and Molly Roohi confirmed that they won’t be racing. Since the original release on Tuesday, Ironman has updated the start list, also removing Ivan Rana.

Update Nov 26th: According to the latest version of the start list there are some more DNS: Amanda Stevens, Carrie Lester, and Tami Ritchie on the female side, and Gilbert Arangure, Scott Defilippis, Thomas Gerlach, Luis Alejandro Lombana Pena, Jonathan Rodriguez Barney, and Juan Carlos Zuniga on the male side.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:18:40 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:06:58
2010 Andy Potts (USA) 08:15:57 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:07:08
2011 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:23:52 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:14:08
2012 Ivan Rana (ESP) 08:15:07 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:15:38
2013 Michael Weiss (AUT) 07:55:23 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:52:28
2014 Michael Weiss (AUT) 08:12:16 Nicola Spirig (SWI) 09:14:07

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michael Weiss AUT 00:50:28 04:22:20 02:55:22 08:12:16
2 Matt Chrabot USA 00:44:27 04:44:28 02:57:02 08:29:50
3 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:44:25 04:44:43 02:56:41 08:30:17

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Nicola Spirig SWI 00:47:12 05:15:03 03:06:19 09:14:07
2 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:49:08 05:11:02 03:13:08 09:17:30
3 Kelly Williamson USA 00:49:24 05:33:53 02:57:02 09:24:41

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:16 Michael Weiss 2014-11-30
Swim overall 00:41:48 John Kenny 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:44:05 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Total female 09:06:58 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2009-11-29
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 02:57:02 Kelly Williamson 2014-11-30

The 2013 race had a shortened swim, therefore the times are not eligible for course records.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 06:12.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Based on the wind, conditions in Cozumel can change quite a lot, impacting both the swim (such as 2012) and the bike (such as 2014).

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 09:23 06:57 01:41 -00:40 27 09:23 06:57 01:41 -00:40
2010 07:36 00:56 13:27 -04:56 30 08:29 03:56 07:34 -02:48
2011 11:05 01:42 12:44 02:13 40 09:21 03:12 09:17 -01:08
2012 05:27 -04:03 07:10 -00:20 55 08:23 01:23 08:46 -00:56
2014 -02:31 03:18 -01:24 -00:06 31 06:12 01:46 06:44 -00:46

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Michael Weiss AUT 08:16:07 08:32:04 00:52:22 04:20:56 02:57:49 25
2 2 Ivan Rana ESP 08:17:52 08:24:55 00:46:23 04:36:33 02:49:56 11
3 7 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:19:59 08:27:45 00:47:10 04:29:23 02:58:26 14
4 35 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:20:53 08:33:03 00:47:36 04:31:44 02:56:33 27
5 19 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:27:35 08:33:55 00:50:33 04:40:05 02:51:57 29
6 4 Matt Hanson USA 08:28:21 08:47:41 00:52:32 04:42:11 02:48:38 73
7 41 Stefan Schmid GER 08:30:23 08:40:43 00:51:33 04:34:45 02:59:05 51
8 8 Justin Daerr USA 08:35:59 08:45:00 00:51:06 04:39:55 02:59:58 65
9 9 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:36:00 08:54:20 00:51:38 04:41:08 02:58:14 104
10 5 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:37:05 08:46:48 00:52:01 04:37:03 03:03:02 71
11 11 Barrett Brandon USA 08:39:31 08:56:14 00:47:14 04:47:22 02:59:55 (115)
12 42 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:40:31 08:54:20 00:51:51 04:37:18 03:06:22 104
13 6 Matthew Russell USA 08:42:07 08:55:37 00:56:00 04:39:14 03:01:53 112
14 3 Chris McDonald AUS 08:42:10 08:51:01 00:51:56 04:39:30 03:05:44 85
15 23 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:47:07 09:01:14 00:52:31 04:38:15 03:11:21 129
16 43 Raul Tejada GTM 08:50:25 09:10:05 00:51:45 04:45:50 03:07:49 (176)
17 33 Matic Modic SLO 08:50:33 09:04:30 00:53:31 04:44:45 03:07:17 147
18 18 Scott Defilippis USA 08:50:50 09:11:33 00:54:39 04:52:33 02:58:39 181
19 30 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:52:12 09:00:53 00:47:08 04:47:58 03:12:06 128
20 38 Vincent Riess AUT 08:58:01 09:18:37 00:53:20 04:59:50 02:59:51 (217)
21 25 Nicolas Hemet FRA 09:01:10 09:14:40 00:54:37 04:45:09 03:16:24 196
22 16 Matthew Curbeau USA 09:03:12 09:15:46 00:54:12 04:45:33 03:18:27 202
23 39 Ivan Risti ITA 09:05:00 09:11:42 00:47:45 04:56:19 03:15:55 184
24 14 Greg Close USA 09:08:09 09:16:50 00:56:05 04:56:56 03:10:08 206
25 32 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:09:59 09:27:26 00:51:41 04:59:55 03:13:24 243
26 22 Raul Furtado BRA 09:10:03 09:30:16 00:52:00 04:44:14 03:28:49 257
27 31 Douglas MacLean USA 09:16:43 09:25:38 00:56:24 05:02:09 03:13:11 239
28 28 Frederic Limousin FRA 09:19:37 09:37:30 00:52:56 04:57:40 03:24:01 (292)
29 24 Oliver Gonzalez MEX 09:34:58 09:52:20 00:49:56 05:24:59 03:15:04 (341)
30 47 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:40:23 09:59:22 00:56:05 05:04:05 03:35:12 (364)
31 27 Peter Kotland CZE 09:43:19 09:57:08 00:57:17 05:02:42 03:38:20 357
32 36 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:49:16 10:17:37 00:49:33 05:07:09 03:47:34 (420)
33 45 Richard Wygand BRA 10:09:27 10:34:23 01:04:01 05:16:08 03:44:18 (465)
34 17 Rod De Kanel FRA 10:22:44 10:42:38 00:51:16 05:10:37 04:15:51 (474)
35 15 Luca Cozza ITA 10:40:49 11:01:17 00:57:56 05:15:36 04:22:16 (482)
10 Gilbert Arangure USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Vinicius Canhedo BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Eduardo Chong MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Matteo Fontana ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Jorge Luis Fuentes MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Tyler Jordan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
29 Luis Alejandro Lombana Pena COL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Jeremy Morel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
37 Jason Reinhardt USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Jonathan Rodriguez Barney COL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
46 Juan Carlos Zuniga MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 56 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:00:35 09:06:50 00:50:15 04:57:16 03:08:04 2
2 55 Leanda Cave GBR 09:12:56 09:27:39 00:49:32 05:03:13 03:15:11 22
3 60 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:15:51 09:17:58 00:50:00 05:00:14 03:20:38 11
4 59 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:17:47 09:23:43 00:57:53 05:03:05 03:11:49 17
5 58 Carrie Lester AUS 09:20:44 09:31:25 00:52:42 05:05:03 03:18:00 26
6 62 Amanda Stevens USA 09:21:27 09:31:17 00:49:28 05:07:43 03:19:17 25
7 57 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:26:46 09:35:57 00:53:30 05:06:37 03:21:39 38
8 66 Danielle Mack USA 09:27:51 09:45:27 01:00:52 05:06:21 03:15:38 51
9 64 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:28:44 09:36:20 00:47:40 05:10:04 03:25:59 39
10 63 Melanie McQuaid CAN 09:33:41 09:46:18 00:55:59 05:05:58 03:26:44 (55)
11 67 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:37:00 09:50:53 00:51:07 05:07:41 03:33:13 68
12 65 Emma Kate Lidbury GBR 09:38:33 09:57:02 00:52:44 05:14:11 03:26:37 (82)
13 86 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:43:46 09:53:09 00:52:31 05:21:32 03:24:44 73
14 78 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:49:29 10:03:08 00:55:07 05:27:00 03:22:22 91
15 81 Karina Ottosen DEN 09:51:22 10:10:20 00:56:54 05:18:35 03:30:53 108
16 74 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:54:12 10:07:48 01:02:42 05:21:39 03:24:51 (104)
17 70 Brooke Brown CAN 09:54:26 10:13:01 01:02:19 05:18:06 03:29:02 (116)
18 73 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:55:32 10:06:21 01:08:48 05:19:40 03:22:03 99
19 69 Anne Basso FRA 09:57:01 10:15:51 00:57:06 05:23:22 03:31:33 122
20 84 Maggie Rusch USA 10:05:15 10:18:49 00:59:52 05:22:24 03:37:58 130
21 82 Tami Ritchie USA 10:05:41 10:31:55 00:50:51 05:35:28 03:34:21 166
22 83 Molly Roohi USA 10:08:30 10:16:54 01:03:07 05:27:18 03:33:05 (126)
23 72 Caroline Gregory USA 10:08:49 10:29:11 00:54:09 05:38:07 03:31:34 161
24 76 Marina Jurjevic AUS 10:08:49 10:40:54 01:02:43 05:08:16 03:52:49 (173)
25 71 Kate Bruck USA 10:13:22 10:23:49 01:02:01 05:36:42 03:29:40 145
26 75 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:16:48 10:24:55 00:59:12 05:47:58 03:24:39 151
27 85 Erin Spitler USA 10:28:44 10:33:50 01:03:57 05:21:40 03:58:07 168
28 68 Christine Avelar USA 10:35:32 10:55:50 00:53:26 05:32:58 04:04:09 (179)
29 80 Carla Moreno BRA 10:53:22 11:21:00 00:54:27 06:07:48 03:46:07 (183)
30 79 Maria Lopez USA 11:27:08 11:49:05 01:08:58 05:44:04 04:29:06 (183)
77 Jennifer Kryzanowski CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
87 Amanda Wendorff USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Cozumel doesn’t have a clear male favorite: Michael Weiss, Ivan Rana and Tyler Butterfield are very close in their abilities, but Ivan and Tyler have raced in Kona and may not be in the best position for a great race. (After placing 12th in Kona a third place in Cozumel should already take care of qualifying for Ivan, and Tyler only needs a validation race after his 5th place for a 2016 slot.) Patrik Nilsson declined his Kona slot to race (and win!) his home Ironman race in Sweden, he has had great results in fall 2014 with winning IM Malaysia and placing second in Western Australia. If Matt Hanson recovers in time from his Kona injuries when he crashed early in the bike, he will look to deliver a similar performance to his Texas win from earlier in the year. At least five strong contenders – next to impossible to predict who will end up on top even without taking other Ironman winners such as Alessandro Degasperi, Justin Daerr, Trevor Wurtele, Matt Russell or Chris McDonald into account.

  • Michael Weiss: 23% (3-1)
  • Ivan Rana: 22% (4-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 21% (4-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 15% (6-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 8% (11-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 6% (16-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 2% (40-1)

Female Race Participants

There is a clear statistical front-runner in the women’s race: Rachel Joyce is looking to validate her Kona slot after her great second place in Kona. But (Rachel Joyce has announced she won’t be racing, obviously that significantly changes the odds of the other athletes.) I would put Kona 2012 Champion Leanda Cave on a similar level to Rachel, especially considering that Leanda will be very motivated after her crash in Kona (and subsequent DNF) – and the last time they raced each other over the long distance at IM Texas earlier this year, Leanda finished ahead of Rachel. Carrie Lester has been in great shape this year (2nd in Roth, winning at IM Chattanooga), and a podium result in Cozumel would put her in a great position for Kona qualifying. Corinne Abraham (had to decline her Kona slot with an injury) and Camilla Pedersen (8th in Kona) are two more strong racers. Amanda Stevens has just raced IM Arizona, I don’t expect her to start in Cozumel as well. There are a number of other athletes to watch in the race: Heather Wurtele (can she finally break through with a good IM marathon?), Danielle Mack (winner of IM Boulder and IM Canada), Celine Schaerer (currently the best IM swimmer, looking for a good IM race after changing coaches), Dede Griesbauer (wants to have another shot at racing well in Kona) – a long list of athletes that will be competing for the ten money slots.

  • Rachel Joyce: 54% (1-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 19% (4-1) 40% (2-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 9% (10-1) 19% (4-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 7% (13-1) 13% (7-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 5% (20-1) 11% (8-1)
  • Camilla Pedersen: 3% (32-1) 11% (8-1)

Ironman Arizona 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual IM Arizona was very quick, especially on the bike: A bike adjustment of 20:25 was the main contributor to an overall adjustment of 22:52, the quickest in Arizona so far. Even with the great conditions, the two new bike course records by Andy Starykowicz (4:03:35) and Meredith Kessler (4:42:13) are great performances.

Conditions on the run were a bit different this year: With rain and cold temperatures there were not too many “explosions” but some athletes were shivering and having trouble keeping their temperature up. But the effect on times was quite low, at least for the Pro athletes as they only hit the rain once they were on the run. (Different than in Whistler this year when the rain hit the Pro field at the start of the bike and a lot of athletes struggled with hypothermia.)

Male Race Results

As expected Andy Starykowicz took the lead shortly after T1 and dominated the bike leg with a 4:03:35, improving on Jordan Rapp’s bike record by more than ten minutes. Andy now has the three fastest Ironman bike legs (4:02:17 Florida 13, 4:03 Arizona 15 and 4:04 Florida 12). He had an almost 13 minute lead into T2. He was running well for the first half of the marathon, but Lionel Sanders was eating into his lead. When Andy struggled around mile 17 and had to walk for a bit, Lionel took the lead and won the race with a sub-8 finish time. Brent McMahon had the best marathon of the day and finished in second place, securing his Kona slot for next October. TJ Tollakson took the last spot on the podium, he also managed to overtake Andy shortly before the finish. Jordan Rapp wasn’t fresh enough after Kona a few weeks ago and took fifth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:54:04 04:13:38 02:47:07 07:58:22 -17:05 US$ 20000
2 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:08 04:23:32 02:46:25 08:00:57 06:39 US$ 10000
3 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:14 04:16:23 02:54:45 08:04:17 -13:23 US$ 6500
4 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:49:12 04:03:35 03:09:04 08:05:56 -10:10 US$ 4000
5 Jordan Rapp USA 00:52:34 04:15:49 02:55:28 08:08:05 00:42 US$ 3000
6 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:49:17 04:18:25 03:01:15 08:12:55 -05:06 US$ 2000
7 Kevin Collington USA 00:49:14 04:29:32 02:53:51 08:16:25 n/a US$ 1500
8 David Plese SLO 00:53:28 04:25:50 02:53:21 08:17:06 -01:27 US$ 1250
9 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:53:49 04:21:12 03:01:16 08:20:55 -08:18 US$ 1000
10 David Naesvik SWE 00:54:22 04:26:09 03:04:28 08:29:04 -07:30 US$ 750
11 Marko Albert EST 00:47:06 04:24:38 03:14:43 08:29:46 15:31  
12 Bryan McCrystal IRL 01:02:54 04:16:34 03:07:14 08:30:50 -20:15  
13 Matic Modic SLO 00:55:54 04:27:45 03:05:43 08:33:54 -04:31  
14 Miguel Fidalgo Rossell ESP 00:49:16 04:29:52 03:16:33 08:39:37 19:41  
15 Dirk Wijnalda NED 00:59:14 04:31:59 03:05:38 08:40:38 06:26  
16 James Chesson USA 00:57:24 04:37:16 03:06:08 08:45:27 -04:13  
17 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:55:48 04:35:58 03:09:59 08:45:54 -16:43  
18 Jozsef Major HUN 00:57:43 04:32:09 03:13:09 08:47:57 16:48  
19 Colin Laughery USA 01:00:27 04:37:56 03:08:16 08:52:33 03:05  
20 Dylan Gleeson CAN 00:53:53 04:43:47 03:11:05 08:52:50 -19:55  
21 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:02:45 04:33:02 03:11:08 08:53:59 14:57  
22 Douglas MacLean USA 00:57:30 04:48:40 03:06:58 08:58:39 01:38  
23 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:49:26 04:51:22 03:16:38 09:02:10 -19:29  
24 Patrick Bless GER 00:56:25 04:56:27 03:04:36 09:03:01 01:13  
25 Brent Mcburney USA 00:57:24 04:48:35 03:14:41 09:04:57 -1:07:05  
26 Derek Lantz CAN 01:00:29 04:57:00 03:04:17 09:06:41 n/a  
27 Gilian Oriet SUI 00:56:20 04:48:52 03:20:07 09:10:33 -28:20  
28 Elmar Heger GER 00:54:18 04:43:53 03:39:38 09:22:31 -16:08  
29 Anthony Toth CAN 00:57:40 04:46:25 03:34:19 09:24:38 25:03  
30 Nathan Dressel USA 01:00:16 05:06:00 03:36:42 09:48:24 n/a  
31 Mario Radevic GER 01:08:35 04:52:16 03:49:39 09:55:28 04:49  
32 Joe Umphenour USA 00:49:05 04:42:54 05:35:50 11:12:42 1:47:26  
33 Arland Macasieb PHI 01:09:54 06:12:30 04:08:50 12:14:52 1:22:28  
  Matthew Russell USA 00:56:37 04:21:18   DNF  
  Raymond Botelho USA 00:55:51 04:23:50   DNF  
  Thomas Gerlach USA 00:53:36 04:26:45   DNF  
  Drew Scott USA 00:49:07 04:34:24   DNF  
  Christopher Bagg USA 00:53:52 04:32:28   DNF  
  Lewis Elliot USA 00:54:16 04:39:23   DNF  
  Andrew Fast USA 00:59:26 04:44:57   DNF  
  Karl Bordine USA 01:03:00 04:46:08   DNF  
  Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 01:04:23 05:09:15   DNF  
  Daniel Herlbauer AUT 00:53:48     DNF  
  Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:54:15     DNF  
  Robert Duncan USA 01:01:20     DNF  
  James Lubinski USA 01:07:47     DNF  

Female Race Results

The female race was dominated by three athletes who wanted to end the year on a high note after not so good races in Kona: Meredith Kessler finished but was the last female Pro finisher – in Tempe we saw a different Meredith defend her title from last year. She posted the best swim and bike legs (and a new bike course record), leading by more than ten minutes in T2. She then went on to have a solid second best marathon and won with a new personal best Ironman time of 8:44:00. Second place went to Amanda Stevens who made after an uncharacteristic slow swim had a good bike leg and was the only one running faster than Meredith. Amanda’s 8:52:31 is also an Ironman PR for her and the first time she was able to finish under 9 hours. Julia Gajer had a good swim and bike but then had to work on the run for her third place finish. Darby Roberts had a great tun to finish fourth, and Michelle Vesterby was too tired after Kona to finish better than fifth but is now also safe for Kona 2016.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:48:25 04:42:13 03:08:58 08:44:00 -14:51 US$ 20000
2 Amanda Stevens USA 00:51:07 04:50:10 03:06:39 08:52:31 -18:50 US$ 10000
3 Julia Gajer GER 00:51:05 04:52:06 03:15:06 09:03:15 10:58 US$ 6500
4 Darbi Roberts USA 00:51:41 04:56:59 03:12:00 09:05:10 -15:28 US$ 4000
5 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:52:52 04:54:34 03:19:45 09:11:31 13:33 US$ 3000
6 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:56:22 04:54:43 03:16:23 09:13:13 -08:51 US$ 2000
7 Melanie McQuaid CAN 00:56:12 04:51:28 03:22:40 09:14:14 06:10 US$ 1500
8 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:54:50 05:06:09 03:09:43 09:14:59 06:18 US$ 1250
9 Christina Jackson USA 00:51:11 04:57:21 03:22:26 09:15:32 -18:57 US$ 1000
10 Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:07:12 04:53:56 03:20:33 09:26:12 05:57 US$ 750
11 Christine Fletcher CAN 00:57:46 04:59:41 03:32:19 09:35:54 -12:08  
12 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:01:05 05:09:36 03:19:32 09:37:18 -46:06  
13 Neilia Bliss USA 01:00:55 05:10:33 03:28:10 09:45:37 -12:51  
14 Sarah Graves USA 01:09:40 05:07:13 03:29:50 09:53:46 09:11  
15 Richele Frank CAN 01:11:02 05:07:07 03:33:07 10:01:23 -13:53  
16 Rahel Bellinga NED 01:02:48 05:00:16 03:53:54 10:03:25 -05:24  
17 Kathryn King GBR 01:05:07 05:18:08 03:41:05 10:10:26 -20:26  
18 Hayley Benson USA 01:00:44 05:27:53 03:41:11 10:17:04 n/a  
19 Cori Burnett USA 00:57:37 05:28:50 03:50:39 10:27:40 -17:54  
20 Katy Cargiulo USA 01:01:56 05:39:16 03:40:45 10:29:09 01:29  
21 Kara Lapoint USA 01:06:41 05:43:38 03:56:45 10:57:55 n/a  
22 Lauren Thompson USA 01:02:28 05:28:58 04:20:47 11:00:53 n/a  
23 Ali Black USA 01:07:18 05:17:42 05:11:52 11:43:17 1:28:16  
  Amber Ferreira USA 00:57:41 05:03:06   DNF  
  Sarah Jarvis USA 00:57:38 05:10:16   DNF  
  Laurel Wassner USA 00:55:42 05:15:04   DNF  
  Carrie Mccoy USA 01:21:33 05:46:24   DNF  
  Sarah Haskins USA 00:48:29     DNF  
  Lisa Roberts USA 01:02:48     DNF  

Ironman Malaysia 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, IM Malaysia was hot and humid, leading to slow runs and a number of explosions and DNFs. The swim and bike weren’t fast either, but most of the “slowness” comes from the run (-10:44). Compared to the other years in Malaysia, it was one of the slowest, but very comparable to last year. The overall course rating (including Pro races from 2006 onward) is now -7:41 with the run even slower (-9:59).

A good thing was to see the increase of the increased number of Pros starting and finishing: Last year there were 21 finishers (from 27 starters), this year there were 42 finishers (from 55 Pro starters).

Male Race Results

Bike leader Romain Guillaume was one of those suffering on the run: His ten minute gap in T2 only lasted 15k into the run when Mike Aigroz, Frederik Croneborg and Harry Wiltshire took the lead. (Romain ended up in 20th place after placing 19th in Kona – he’ll need some more points to qualify!) Mike won the final sprint with 10 seconds over Fredrik, Harry took the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Mike Aigroz SUI 00:49:17 04:49:25 03:08:46 08:52:02 -12:07 US$ 8000
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:50:24 04:48:18 03:09:02 08:52:12 -09:17 US$ 4000
3 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:49:13 04:49:31 03:11:55 08:55:01 -19:54 US$ 3000
4 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:49:17 04:55:05 03:11:31 09:00:49 -01:55 US$ 2500
5 Tohara Kaito JPN 00:54:10 04:53:55 03:08:36 09:01:19 -41:34 US$ 1500
6 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:55:50 04:45:40 03:19:14 09:06:24 -06:31 US$ 1000
7 Christian Brader GER 00:59:37 04:50:14 03:13:36 09:08:52 -03:48
8 Chris Legh AUS 00:54:06 04:48:01 03:27:33 09:14:20 -16:04
9 Daniil Sapunov UKR 00:50:03 04:59:38 03:19:25 09:15:24 n/a
10 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:51:12 05:09:16 03:09:36 09:18:23 -00:04
11 Freddy Lampret ZAF 00:54:08 04:50:41 03:30:00 09:19:26 -56:13
12 Steven Osborne GBR 00:56:49 05:14:17 03:05:42 09:22:54 -23:56
13 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:56:09 04:41:56 03:42:56 09:26:33 27:50
14 Cedric Lassonde FRA 00:56:27 04:51:25 03:40:36 09:34:33 13:23
15 Carl Read NZL 00:56:04 05:15:22 03:19:38 09:42:22 27:13
16 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 00:51:56 05:28:24 03:26:50 09:58:02 11:07
17 Guy Crawford NZL 00:53:42 04:55:06 04:08:44 10:03:22 38:20
18 Peter Seidel GER 00:56:09 04:55:42 04:42:23 10:39:45 1:05:23
19 Michael Louys BEL 01:03:08 05:00:35 04:31:10 10:41:48 54:02
20 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:49:14 04:39:14 05:08:38 10:41:49 1:37:06
21 Brad Williams USA 00:57:42 05:03:46 04:36:49 10:44:46 1:12:41
22 Vincent Depuiset FRA 01:12:53 05:20:18 04:04:31 10:45:08 35:34
23 Yvan Jarrige FRA 00:49:23 06:32:16 03:35:29 11:05:42 n/a
24 Petr Vabrousek CZE 01:00:20 05:37:07 04:56:21 11:44:28 1:20:29
25 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:14:23 07:23:26 05:04:05 13:58:09 1:36:18
26 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:14:23 06:57:45 05:48:47 14:10:42 1:49:16
Balazs Csoke HUN 00:49:10 04:51:17 DNF
Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:50:46 05:05:25 DNF
Yu Shinozaki JPN 00:57:44 07:01:21 DNF
Paul Ambrose AUS 00:49:20 DNF
Markus Mlinar AUT 00:59:31 DNF
Young Hwan Oh KOR 01:04:38 DNF

Female Race Results

Defending champion Diana Riesler took control of the race early on the bike and never looked back, winning by more than 12 minutes. Second place went to Gurutze Frades who made up a lot of ground with a race best 3:15 run – a new run record! Ironman legend Natascha Badmann who had a solid day to finish in third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:34 05:02:38 03:29:37 09:37:06 -09:54 US$ 8000
2 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 01:03:55 05:25:04 03:15:02 09:49:09 -28:40 US$ 4000
3 Natascha Badmann SUI 01:03:56 05:14:13 03:30:21 09:54:07 00:56 US$ 3000
4 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:58:37 05:08:05 03:46:02 09:58:26 -06:18 US$ 2500
5 Saleta Castro ESP 00:56:24 05:25:42 03:32:43 10:00:23 -30:39 US$ 1500
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:57:28 05:23:49 03:40:47 10:08:01 -13:03 US$ 1000
7 Lucie Reed CZE 00:54:40 05:43:58 03:32:07 10:17:25 10:10
8 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:11:59 05:29:23 03:31:03 10:17:25 -04:00
9 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:01:54 05:24:55 03:47:28 10:19:50 13:30
10 Angela Kuehnlein GER 01:03:55 05:44:56 03:39:27 10:33:39 -19:20
11 Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:56:51 05:39:35 03:56:16 10:37:59 21:28
12 Michelle Duffield AUS 01:03:54 05:35:17 04:04:06 10:49:36 17:46
13 Mami Ishii JPN 01:03:41 05:48:51 04:00:55 10:58:53 -1:01:44
14 Tineke Van den Berg NED 01:07:16 05:31:41 04:07:56 10:59:35 47:35
15 Emma Graaf SWE 01:01:30 05:48:41 04:33:35 11:34:28 58:41
16 Bree Wee USA 00:57:54 06:00:53 05:09:50 12:13:48 1:06:11
Jeanne Collonge FRA 01:00:28 05:27:48 DNF
Caroline Livesey GBR 01:00:24 05:31:16 DNF
Anna Halasz HUN 01:12:40 05:22:20 DNF
Maki Nishiuchi JPN 00:57:06 05:39:27 DNF
Carole Fuchs THA 01:13:08 05:31:15 DNF
Jocelyn Mccauley USA 00:58:42 06:18:11 DNF
Kathrin Walther GER 01:00:18 DNF
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