TriGames Mandelieu 2020 – Results

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Rudy Von Berg USA 00:29:05 02:38:00 01:10:34 04:21:07 02:22 EUR 2,250
2 Justus Nieschlag GER 00:27:53 02:38:19 01:13:40 04:23:27 04:09 EUR 1,875
3 Boris Stein GER 00:31:36 02:39:01 01:11:35 04:25:52 -00:15 EUR 1,500
4 Dylan Magnien FRA 00:29:09 02:46:15 01:10:02 04:29:04 00:30 EUR 1,125
5 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:29:14 02:43:26 01:13:17 04:29:35 -03:37 EUR 750
6 Tim Van Hemel BEL     01:14:11 04:33:51 n/a  
7 Thomas Navarro FRA 00:34:18 02:43:00 01:13:10 04:34:20 -04:02  
8 Adrian Haller SUI 00:29:09 02:47:45 01:14:15 04:35:00 00:39  
9 Charles Bouin FRA 00:34:37 02:43:37 01:16:54 04:38:44 -06:40  
10 Kevin Rundstadler FRA 00:29:22 02:43:40 01:24:13 04:41:02 00:18  
11 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 00:31:35 02:52:58 01:13:42 04:42:46 01:43  
12 Kacper Stepniak POL 00:29:04 02:50:29 01:21:03 04:44:07 09:09  
13 Alexandre Blain FRA 00:36:02 02:48:39 01:15:26 04:44:15 -01:20  
14 William Mennesson FRA 00:30:45 02:44:59 01:27:40 04:47:20 01:33  
15 Kevin Maurel FRA 00:31:29 02:58:15 01:22:38 04:56:22 24:13  
16 Lorenzo Delco SUI 00:41:38 02:54:27 01:16:20 04:57:02 n/a  
17 Binjamin Chiron FRA 00:41:07 02:54:42 01:17:04 04:57:25 n/a  

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Anne Haug GER 00:32:53 03:04:21 01:12:30 04:54:34 10:17 EUR 2,250
2 Emma Bilham SUI 00:33:16 03:03:36 01:24:04 05:05:36 00:49 EUR 1,875
3 Justine Mathieux FRA 00:32:58 03:08:24 01:21:41 05:07:35 -02:21 EUR 1,500
4 Jeanne Collonge FRA 00:35:20 03:06:32 01:26:05 05:11:59 03:24 EUR 1,125
5 Charlotte Morel FRA 00:32:56 03:12:57 01:22:46 05:12:44 -02:58 EUR 750
6 Alexia Bailly FRA 00:32:55 03:15:18 01:28:11 05:20:25 12:08  
7 Julie Iemmolo FRA 00:32:54 03:16:49 01:34:42 05:28:56 -01:24  
8 Carla Dahan FRA 00:37:44 03:22:20 01:26:31 05:32:02 n/a  
9 Jeanne Tondut FRA 00:36:05 03:18:09 01:37:22 05:36:09 n/a  
10 Heloise Focquenoy FRA 00:38:17 03:27:50 01:30:20 05:42:08 n/a  

Analyzing Kona Finishing Times Through the Years

This post looks at the times and splits at the Ironman World Championships in Kona, highlights some of the exceptional results and tries to spot some long-term trends.

The graphs were developed for Ironman as part of their coverage during what would have been race week. Greg Welch and I had a chat about it that was shown as part of their “Kona Celebration Week Daily Show 6 – E Ola Mau” (starting about 1:07 into the show) which you can still watch on the Ironman Now Facebook page. Many thanks to Greg and Julia for joining me on this awesome journey through Ironman history!

IronmanKonaCoverage

Overall Times

The first graph looks at the overall finishing times of the Top 10 in Kona, both for the men (blue) and women (green) from 1986 up to 2019:


(For a hi-res version of this and all other graphs, just click on them.)

A few key points:

  • There are a lot of “ups and downs” in the times – a sign of how variable the conditions in Kona are. It’s never a good idea to race Kona with a specific time goal in mind.
  • 2004 has been a particularly slow year with a lot of wind on the bike. Normann Stadler rode by far the fastest bike split with a 4:37 – only two years later he rode a 4:18, setting a new bike course record. Both years he was winning the race!
  • A recent example of a fast year is 2018 when bike and overall course records were set – conditions on the bike course were very fast with reportedly hardly any wind.
  • The closest the women have come to the male finishers is still 1988 when Paula Newby-Fraser finished 11th overall.

Details for the Men’s Times

The next chart look at the men’s Top 10 and a couple of the course records:

2 MenTop10

You can distinguish between a few phases:

  • Dave Scott brought down the course records in the first half of the 1980s down to sub-8:30.
  • Then he and Mark Allen had their epic battle in 1989 (with a new course record of 8:09).
  • Mark continued to race at that level, setting his last course record in 1993 and winning his sixth title in 1995. Luc Van Lierde set another CR in 1996.
  • After that there was a period of “slower years” with winning times just under 8:30 for quite some time.
  • Between 2005 and 2015 the winning times hovered around 8:15, with the notable exception of Craig Alexander’s course record in 2011.
  • Since 2016 the winning times have come down, with two new course records in 2018 (Patrick Lange for the first time under 8 hours in Kona) and 2019.
  • Jan Frodeno’s course record in 2019 is especially notable as a wider Top 10 indicates that the conditions were not that quick.

The swim plays an important tactical role but can be neglected for the overall finishing times. Let’s have a look at the bike and run splits to see where these faster times come from. First, the bike:

3 MenBike

As before, the chart shows the bike times for the Top 10 men, with the winner’s bike time indicated by the darker blue line. Again, most of the course records are indicated.

  • It’s clear that the winner almost always had the fastest bike leg or is at least quite close to the fastest split. There are very few exceptions such as 2007 or 2017 when the race was won by strong runners (Chris McCormack and Patrick Lange).
  • The bike times have been getting faster in “steps”: In the 1990s (just under 4:30) and mid-2000s (just under 4:20) by German “Uber Bikers” (Jürgen Zack, Thomas Hellriegel, Normann Stadler) and then again after 2016 with Cam Wurf setting two new bike course records in 2017 and 2018 (now just under 4:10).
  • Similarly, the bike times within the Top 10 have come down – sub-4:30 is roughly what is needed these days.

The next graph has a closer look at the Men’s Run Splits:

4 MenRun

  • Maybe even more than for the bike leg, the winners are very close to the fastest run time among the Top 10. There are only a few exceptions, for example Normann Stadler in 2004 and 2006 or Sebastian Kienle in 2014.
  • Overall, the run times have not come down since Mark Allen’s 1989 course record. Even if Patrick Lange has set a new course record in 2016, he and Dave Scott are still the second and third fastest runners in Kona history!
  • The same applies for the rest of the front finishers, you can still finish in the Top 10 with a 3-hour marathon.

Details for the Women’s Times

Of course the look at the women’s finishing times is also interesting:

5 WomenTop10

There are some interesting data points:

  • Paula Newby Fraser has been the athlete bringing finishing times by quite a lot: Her first course record was a 9:49 in 1986 – she brought that down to just over 9 hours in 1989.
  • Erin Baker was able to break Paula’s record in 1987, but Paula took it back just one year later.
  • Paula’s fastest time in Kona was 8:55 in 1992.
  • After that, times were a bit slower until Chrissie Wellington took the course record with an 8:54 in 2009, followed by Mirinda Carfrae with an 8:52 in 2013.
  • Daniela Ryf set two new course records in 2016 and 2018, bringing the current record down to sub 8:30!
  • Chrissie, Rinny and Daniela have also increased the pressure on the rest of the women, resulting in the Top10 times coming down from about 9:45 in the early 2000s to under 9:15 in recent years.

Here’s a look at the women’s bike splits:

6 WomenBike

  • As for the men, the winner consistently posts one of the fastest bike splits
  • It’s again Paula Newby-Fraser who brought the bike records down from 5:22 in 1987 to 4:48 in 1993.
  • It took Karin Thuerig, a world-class athlete even among the time trial specialists, to set new course records in 2010 and 2011.
  • That time wasn’t broken before 2018, when Daniela Ryf leveraged the perfect conditions to lower the record to 4:26.
  • As for the overall times and the men’s bike times, the female bike times for the Top 10 have come down since about 2012.

Here’s the last graph – a look at the female run times:

7 WomenRun

  • This graph shows the same message as before: The winner is almost always within a minute of the fastest split. This is true even for Daniela who isn’t really known as a speedy runner!
  • There’s been some improvement in the run times in the years of Paula, Erin, and Heather Fuhr (all of them about 3:04), then a bigger step down to Lori Bowden’s first sub-3 marathon in Kona in 1999.
  • Chrissie and Rinny brought these times down to just over 2:50.
  • Until Anne Haug in 2019, the run times have been a bit slower than that.
  • The Top10 run times haven’t changed much in the 2000s, it’s still possible to finish in the Top10 with a run split over 3:15.

Expectations for the Future

Are there any trends we can look for in the next few years? Here are a few speculations:

  • We’ve seen a lot of improvement on the bike, but maybe there’s still some potential left for the top women.
  • On the marathon, I think that there will be some faster times needed for a Top 10 finish, potentially aided by more even bike rides, better nutrition or heat adaption and maybe new, faster shoes.
  • For a Top 10 finish, I expect the men will need a run under 2:50 and for the women under 3:10.
  • Any overall improvements will likely come from a close race where two or more athletes are battling for the win. On the men’s side, it might be a front bike group that forces Frodo to bike and run hard, and on the female side I don’t think that we’ve seen Daniela running to her full potential quite yet.

Where do you think we will see improvements in the next years?

Ironman Hawaii 2020 – Seedings

Today, October 10th would have been race day for the 2020 IronmanWorld Championships in Kona. The whole 2020 racing season has been disrupted, including the Kona race which has first been postponed to February 2021 and then completely canceled.

This post has a look at what my seedings could have looked like – obviously even more caveats apply than for my normal seedings. For example, almost none of the athletes mentioned have raced since Kona, even fewer on the full distance. The result is that the 2020 seedings mainly ending up as a mixture of the 2019 seedings plus the results of Kona 2019. Therefore, take these more as a discussion starter than some definitive endpoint – after all results are always determined on the racecourse!

I can’t wait to see a return to racing and hopefully a more normal 2021 season, including new results by the main contenders – leading to even more interesting speculations for the next Kona race on October 9th, 2021.

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:47:31 04:16:02 02:42:43 07:51:13
2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:47:38 04:18:11 02:49:45 07:59:41
3 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:52:17 04:15:04 02:49:56 08:02:04

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Anne Haug GER 00:54:09 04:50:17 02:51:07 08:40:10
2 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 00:49:02 04:47:20 03:05:59 08:46:44
3 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:54:05 04:50:13 02:59:20 08:48:13

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:51:13 Jan Frodeno 2019-10-12
Swim overall 00:46:29 Jan Sibbersen 2018-10-13
Bike overall 04:09:06 Cameron Wurf 2018-10-13
Run overall 02:39:45 Patrick Lange 2016-10-08
Total female 08:26:18 Daniela Ryf 2018-10-13
Swim female 00:48:14 Lucy Charles-Barclay 2018-10-13
Bike female 04:26:07 Daniela Ryf 2018-10-13
Run female 02:50:26 Mirinda Carfrae 2014-10-11

Seedings for Male Race

# Name Nat Expected ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Kona Consistency
1 Jan Frodeno GER 07:59:02 00:48:48 04:20:18 05:14:06 02:44:56 80% +0% -20% (5)
2 Patrick Lange GER 08:02:15 00:50:59 04:26:09 05:22:09 02:40:06 54% +0% -46% (4)
3 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:05:51 00:53:17 04:16:51 05:15:07 02:50:44 76% +0% -24% (8)
4 Ben Hoffman USA 08:09:17 00:51:17 04:25:54 05:22:11 02:47:06 76% +16% -8% (9)
5 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:10:27 00:49:17 04:23:41 05:17:58 02:52:29 82% +14% -4% (9)
6 Joe Skipper GBR 08:12:48 00:54:12 04:22:35 05:21:47 02:51:01 89% +0% -11% (4)
7 Braden Currie NZL 08:13:36 00:49:42 04:30:15 05:24:57 02:48:39 82% +0% -18% (3)
8 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:13:40 00:56:14 04:26:05 05:27:19 02:46:21 70% +24% -5% (8)
9 Florian Angert GER 08:14:04 00:49:44 04:23:16 05:18:00 02:56:04 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
10 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:15:38 00:53:25 04:17:21 05:15:46 02:59:52 100% +0% -0% (3)
13 Javier Gomez ESP 08:17:58 00:49:44 04:30:05 05:24:48 02:53:10 100% +0% -0% (1)
17 Alistair Brownlee GBR 08:19:26 00:49:00 04:22:43 05:16:43 03:02:43 100% +0% -0% (1)
19 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:19:33 00:55:03 04:18:11 05:18:13 03:01:20 58% +16% -26% (5)
27 Josh Amberger AUS 08:30:40 00:48:34 04:28:58 05:22:31 03:08:09 18% +0% -82% (3)

Seedings for Female Race

# Name Nat Expected ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Kona Consistency
1 Anne Haug GER 08:47:11 00:55:30 04:54:20 05:54:51 02:52:20 62% +38% -0% (2)
2 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:47:21 00:56:34 04:44:22 05:45:57 03:01:24 33% +25% -42% (6)
3 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 08:50:30 00:49:56 04:50:09 05:45:05 03:05:25 51% +49% -0% (3)
4 Laura Philipp GER 08:57:01 01:00:20 04:49:34 05:54:55 03:02:06 100% +0% -0% (1)
5 Sarah Crowley AUS 08:59:03 00:55:39 04:53:29 05:54:08 03:04:55 56% +44% -0% (4)
6 Teresa Adam NZL 09:02:47 00:53:29 04:52:04 05:50:33 03:12:14 100% +0% -0% (1)
7 Heather Jackson USA 09:04:02 09:06:07 04:51:51 05:57:20 03:06:42 94% +6% -0% (5)
8 Carrie Lester AUS 09:05:32 09:05:30 04:54:17 05:55:41 03:09:51 73% +0% -27% (5)
9 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:07:18 01:03:00 04:53:18 06:01:19 03:05:59 100% +0% -0% (4)
10 Daniela Bleymehl GER 09:11:05 00:59:48 04:48:27 05:53:15 03:17:50 82% +0% -18% (2)

Huntington Triathlon 2020 (Oct 3rd) – Results

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Prize Money
1 Justin Metzler USA 00:19:51 00:54:58 00:32:05 01:48:06 US$ 2,250
2 Jason West USA 00:19:50 00:56:25 00:32:21 01:49:34 US$ 1,750
3 Matt Hanson USA 00:20:35 00:55:01 00:33:38 01:50:40 US$ 1,300
4 Bradley Weiss ZAF 00:20:22 00:55:48 00:33:57 01:51:43 US$ 900
5 Andrew Keily USA 00:19:51 00:57:47 00:33:09 01:52:47 US$ 850
6 Marty Andrie USA 00:19:56 00:59:39 00:31:23 01:53:23 US$ 750
7 TJ Tollakson USA 00:20:33 00:56:34 00:34:45 01:53:34 US$ 700
8 Matt McWilliams USA 00:24:30 00:56:17 00:31:40 01:54:34 US$ 600
9 Scott Haeberle USA 00:19:45 00:58:16 00:35:45 01:55:18 US$ 500
10 Benjamin Stone USA 00:20:00 01:00:08 00:34:05 01:55:50 US$ 400
11 Patrick Brady USA 00:24:46 00:57:31 00:32:59 01:56:52  
12 Andy Krueger USA 00:22:21 00:59:54 00:35:41 01:59:19  
13 Nathan Cohen USA 00:21:13 01:00:53 00:38:52 02:02:22  

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Prize Money
1 Jeanni Seymour ZAF 00:21:11 01:02:24 00:35:59 02:02:02 US$ 2,250
2 Meredith Kessler USA 00:21:14 01:02:36 00:36:22 02:02:25 US$ 1,750
3 Alissa Doehla USA 00:22:45 01:01:59 00:35:44 02:02:38 US$ 1,300
4 Jennifer Spieldenner USA 00:21:09 01:03:26 00:37:45 02:04:02 US$ 900
5 Lisa Becharas USA 00:23:06 01:01:06 00:38:47 02:05:06 US$ 850
6 Grace Walther USA 00:22:17 01:05:56 00:36:28 02:06:26 US$ 750
7 Megan Foley USA 00:21:42 01:06:26 00:37:28 02:07:15 US$ 700
8 Maddy Pesch USA 00:23:05 01:05:06 00:39:47 02:09:53 US$ 600
9 Brittany Higgins USA 00:24:00 01:04:04 00:40:53 02:10:45 US$ 500
10 Sarah Bishop USA 00:25:58 01:05:00 00:38:19 02:12:02 US$ 400
11 Amanda Wendorff USA 00:24:10 01:04:52 00:42:23 02:13:42  
12 Lenny Ramsey NED 00:29:33 01:05:27 00:39:00 02:17:15  
13 Laura Mathews USA 00:24:06 01:08:36 00:47:50 02:23:42  
14 Kearci Smith USA 00:24:28 01:15:49 00:45:59 02:29:16  

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