Challenge Almere / World Triathlon Long Distance Chanmpionships 2021 (Sept 12th) – Seedings

Triathlon World Championship CAA fcPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Bart Colpaert (BEL) 08:34:50 Susan Blatt (GER) 09:24:40
2014 Markus Fachbach (GER) 08:28:25 Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED) 09:16:26
2015 Markus Fachbach (GER) 08:12:24 Kathrin Walther (GER) 09:26:11
2016 Jan Raphael (GER) 08:03:43 Camille Deligny (FRA) 09:18:15
2017 Joe Skipper (GBR) 07:59:39 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:51:13
2018 Jaroslav Kovacic (SLO) 07:55:43 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:00:01
2019 Matt Trautman (ZAF) 07:50:15 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:56:10

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:49:49 04:11:48 02:44:44 07:50:15
2 Kristian Hogenhaug DEN 00:50:12 04:11:27 02:48:31 07:53:52
3 Tomas Renc CZE 00:48:47 04:15:31 02:52:13 08:00:44

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:59:05 04:46:33 03:06:31 08:56:10
2 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 01:05:25 04:49:07 03:11:40 09:11:27
3 Sarissa De Vries NED 00:51:29 04:38:12 03:38:03 09:12:29

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:50:15 Matt Trautman 2019-09-14
Swim overall 00:46:10 Dylan McNeice 2013-09-14
Bike overall 04:10:48 Cameron Wurf 2018-09-08
Run overall 02:41:05 Joe Skipper 2017-09-10
Total female 08:51:13 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2017-09-10
Swim female 00:51:29 Sarissa De Vries 2019-09-14
Bike female 04:38:12 Sarissa De Vries 2019-09-14
Run female 03:05:32 Hanna Maksimova 2017-09-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Almere is 16:48.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Almere

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 06:52 00:51 03:39 02:16 30 06:52 00:57 03:39 02:16
2014 09:06 03:13 04:38 01:16 30 of 38 07:59 02:05 04:08 01:46
2015 17:26 00:59 14:27 02:16 36 of 43 11:08 01:38 07:34 01:56
2016 23:11 01:39 21:21 00:17 28 of 34 14:09 01:37 11:01 01:32
2017 16:07 00:52 13:15 02:05 34 of 48 14:32 01:27 11:28 01:38
2018 20:50 -00:47 14:53 07:21 26 of 31 15:35 00:59 12:02 02:35
2019 24:07 01:03 20:28 03:06 32 of 43 16:48 00:55 13:14 02:40

Prize Money

Challenge Almere has a total prize purse of 110.000 US$, paying 15 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 10% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency
1 28 David McNamee (KQ) GBR 07:55:21 08:11:54 00:47:18 04:20:39 05:12:57 02:42:24 27% +51% -22% (12)
2 1 Kristian Hogenhaug (KQ) DEN 07:59:05 08:17:17 00:49:16 04:11:58 05:06:13 02:52:52 69% +20% -11% (11)
3 33 Milosz Sowinski POL 08:04:51 08:33:02 00:49:03 04:23:54 05:17:57 02:46:54 53% +0% -47% (2)
4 16 Sam Laidlow (KQ) FRA 08:06:41 08:26:30 00:46:56 04:20:02 05:11:58 02:54:43 100% +0% -0% (3)
5 23 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:06:44 08:27:17 00:48:13 04:06:16 04:59:29 03:07:15 46% +31% -23% (14)
6 18 Evert Scheltinga NED 08:10:31 08:32:45 00:47:43 04:22:21 05:15:04 02:55:27 78% +0% -22% (11)
7 24 Jesper Svensson SWE 08:10:37 08:26:28 00:46:22 04:20:33 05:11:54 02:58:43 59% +0% -41% (8)
8 2 Tomas Renc CZE 08:12:31 08:38:36 00:49:06 04:27:46 05:21:53 02:50:38 86% +0% -14% (6)
9 30 Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP 08:19:55 08:40:54 00:56:33 04:31:34 05:33:06 02:46:49 50% +25% -25% (8)
10 27 Kristian Hindkjaer DEN 08:21:32 08:44:20 00:49:57 04:22:33 05:17:30 03:04:02 56% +26% -18% (7)
11 7 Pablo Dapena Gonzalez ESP 08:21:47 08:44:43 00:45:44 04:31:07 05:21:51 02:59:56 38% +0% -62% (2)
12 19 Antony Costes * FRA 08:22:24 09:05:48 00:47:48 04:20:56 05:13:45 03:08:39 18% +10% -72% (17)
13 6 Pete Dyson GBR 08:22:41 08:48:23 00:55:23 04:27:16 05:27:39 02:55:02 55% +27% -18% (4)
14 8 Kieran Lindars GBR 08:24:32 08:55:11 00:46:56 04:38:11 05:30:07 02:54:25 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
15 4 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:26:37 08:50:01 00:53:37 04:28:02 05:26:38 02:59:59 85% +1% -14% (14)
16 12 Strahinja Trakic SRB 08:27:09 08:56:38 00:48:36 04:37:18 05:30:54 02:56:15 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
17 22 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 08:29:27 09:01:02 00:46:52 04:29:07 05:20:59 03:08:28 2% +44% -54% (8)
18 21 Per Van Vlerken GER 08:33:24 08:50:41 00:50:22 04:33:19 05:28:41 03:04:43 77% +2% -21% (32)
19 3 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:34:59 09:03:45 00:56:56 04:38:51 05:40:47 02:54:12 92% +1% -6% (27)
20 35 Jens Frommhold GER 08:37:49 09:04:32 00:55:05 04:36:54 05:37:00 03:00:49 25% +12% -63% (7)
21 15 Diederik Scheltinga NED 08:43:16 09:14:28 00:52:50 04:37:41 05:35:31 03:07:45 10% +28% -62% (8)
22 9 Stefan Overmars NED 08:54:55 09:24:18 00:52:50 04:37:26 05:35:16 03:19:39 65% +0% -35% (9)
23 10 Joao Ferreira POR 08:55:35 09:26:43 00:51:25 04:48:52 05:45:18 03:10:17 52% +0% -48% (2)
24 20 Alexander Berggren SWE 09:13:59 09:52:02 00:45:53 04:50:56 05:41:48 03:32:11 16% +39% -45% (4)
25 34 Diego Vasquez ECU 09:19:06 09:57:31 00:54:10 04:51:11 05:50:21 03:28:45 40% +0% -60% (3)
  5 Thomas Steger * AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2)
  11 Michal Holub SVK n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  14 Milan Brons NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race)
  17 Niek Heldoorn NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  25 Robert Fryer GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  26 Lukas Kocar CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  31 Cornelis Scheltinga NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  36 Adam Hansen AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency
1 66 Sarah Crowley (KQ) * AUS 08:48:01 09:06:46 00:52:18 04:45:17 05:42:34 03:05:27 76% +11% -13% (15)
2 72 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:00:58 09:23:34 00:51:23 04:52:03 05:48:25 03:12:33 63% +0% -37% (13)
3 65 Michelle Vesterby (KQ) DEN 09:08:15 09:25:43 00:54:08 04:54:14 05:53:22 03:14:53 87% +0% -12% (31)
4 61 Renee Kiley (KQ) AUS 09:12:57 09:40:11 00:55:40 04:50:05 05:50:45 03:22:12 50% +31% -19% (11)
5 63 Joanna Ryter (KQ) * SUI 09:13:48 09:38:20 01:02:28 05:07:54 06:15:22 02:58:26 51% +35% -14% (4)
6 62 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:14:24 09:31:49 00:57:17 05:00:58 06:03:15 03:11:09 75% +0% -25% (10)
7 53 Sarissa De Vries NED 09:16:29 09:43:32 00:51:34 04:44:56 05:41:30 03:34:59 79% +21% -0% (4)
8 57 Manon Genet FRA 09:22:32 09:49:19 00:55:37 04:53:48 05:54:24 03:28:08 15% +16% -70% (9)
9 51 Marta Bernardi ITA 09:23:16 09:53:44 00:57:21 05:07:36 06:09:57 03:13:19 36% +0% -64% (4)
10 52 Simona Krivankova CZE 09:28:10 09:52:45 01:05:03 05:05:05 06:15:08 03:13:02 98% +2% -0% (15)
11 58 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:28:36 09:46:29 00:55:16 05:14:52 06:15:08 03:13:28 76% +20% -4% (19)
12 59 Alena Sinay SVK 09:34:30 09:59:25 01:00:40 05:02:49 06:08:29 03:26:01 44% +55% -1% (7)
13 64 Magda Nieuwoudt ZAF 09:43:42 10:17:38 01:00:48 05:04:38 06:10:26 03:33:16 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
14 67 Leanne Fanoy * UAE 09:45:05 10:19:05 01:02:41 05:20:07 06:27:48 03:17:17 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
15 56 Helena Kotopulu CZE 09:47:38 10:15:13 01:11:02 05:13:06 06:29:08 03:18:30 77% +0% -23% (5)
16 68 Vanessa Pereira POR 09:49:20 10:20:58 01:04:16 05:16:35 06:25:51 03:23:29 56% +14% -30% (18)
17 54 Ilona Eversdijk NED 09:51:47 10:39:38 00:54:10 05:04:59 06:04:09 03:47:38 18% +82% -0% (2)
18 69 Nicole Luse USA 10:00:50 10:27:56 01:07:04 05:24:41 06:36:45 03:24:05 47% +18% -34% (6)
19 55 Janien Lubben NED 10:03:44 10:39:05 01:09:21 05:07:54 06:22:16 03:41:28 79% +21% -0% (4)
  60 Line Bonde DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  71 Elisabetta Curridori ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • David McNamee: 45% (1-1)
  • Kristian Hogenhaug: 33% (2-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 9% (10-1)
  • Sam Laidlow: 8% (12-1)
  • Evert Scheltinga: 2% (49-1)
  • Jesper Svensson: 2% (62-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Sarah Crowley: 63% (1-1)
  • Camilla Pedersen: 18% (5-1)
  • Renee Kiley: 10% (9-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 5% (18-1)
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Challenge Roth 2021 (Sept 5th) – Seedings

UntitledImageNote: Because of construction work, the bike was shortened this year to officially 170k. This explains the fast bike splits and finishing times in the table below. Just in case, I will not count the results as “official” fastest times on the IM distance.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:58:45 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:14:06
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:00:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:01:17
2007 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:54:23 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:51:55
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:09:34 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:45:48
2009 Michael Goehner (GER) 07:55:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:31:59
2010 Rasmus Henning (DEN) 07:52:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:19:13
2011 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:41:33 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:18:13
2012 James Cunnama (ZAF) 07:59:59 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:45:04
2013 Dirk Bockel (LUX) 07:52:01 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:40:35
2014 Timo Bracht (GER) 07:56:00 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:38:53
2015 Nils Frommhold (GER) 07:51:28 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:50:53
2016 Jan Frodeno (GER) 07:35:39 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:22:04
2017 Bart Aernouts (BEL) 07:59:07 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:40:03
2018 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 07:46:23 Daniela Bleymehl (GER) 08:43:42
2019 Andreas Dreitz (GER) 07:59:02 Lucy Charles-Barclay (GBR) 08:31:09

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Andreas Dreitz GER 00:51:28 04:13:12 02:51:11 07:59:02
2 Jesper Svensson SWE 00:48:27 04:22:30 02:48:43 08:02:20
3 Cameron Wurf AUS 00:54:38 04:15:53 02:50:37 08:04:08

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 00:49:01 04:39:20 02:59:42 08:31:09
2 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:54:38 04:40:13 03:00:02 08:38:11
3 Daniela Bleymehl GER 00:58:03 04:36:17 03:06:06 08:43:17

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:35:39 Jan Frodeno 2016-07-17
Swim overall 00:43:35 Michael Pruefert 1997-07-13
Bike overall 04:05:37 Cameron Wurf 2018-07-01
Run overall 02:36:49 Luc Van Lierde 1997-07-13
Total female 08:18:13 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10
Swim female 00:46:48 Lucy Charles-Barclay 2018-07-01
Bike female 04:31:29 Daniela Ryf 2016-07-17
Run female 02:44:35 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 20:11.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 23:15 01:15 12:48 09:15 28 23:15 01:13 12:48 09:15
2006 18:52 01:43 10:48 05:54 41 21:04 01:42 11:48 07:34
2007 29:56 01:17 16:35 11:11 35 24:01 01:51 13:24 08:47
2008 25:59 02:33 12:13 10:36 40 24:31 02:11 13:06 09:14
2009 29:11 02:32 19:24 06:49 43 25:27 02:20 14:22 08:45
2010 20:31 01:03 11:13 07:23 43 24:37 02:16 13:50 08:32
2011 24:18 02:05 16:54 05:21 38 24:35 02:14 14:16 08:05
2012 14:09 02:40 06:58 04:27 50 23:16 02:18 13:21 07:37
2013 22:46 01:01 16:21 05:08 41 23:13 02:11 13:41 07:21
2014 08:34 00:24 12:32 -04:00 37 21:45 01:58 13:34 06:13
2015 19:21 01:34 12:55 04:45 44 of 56 21:32 01:57 13:30 06:05
2016 19:23 01:23 15:58 02:11 39 of 43 21:21 01:53 13:43 05:46
2017 14:36 00:26 13:33 01:05 38 of 53 20:50 01:44 13:42 05:24
2018 19:03 01:53 12:46 04:37 31 of 39 20:42 01:44 13:38 05:21
2019 12:56 -01:55 11:20 03:54 46 of 50 20:11 01:28 13:28 05:15

Prize Money

Challenge Roth has a total prize purse of 62.000 EUR, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 25% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency
1 5 Patrick Lange (KQ) GER 07:25:43 08:02:18 00:46:41 03:57:43 04:49:24 02:36:19 29% +39% -32% (7)
2 4 Sebastian Kienle (KQ) GER 07:28:51 08:01:27 00:48:22 03:50:54 04:44:16 02:44:35 87% +0% -13% (19)
3 6 Braden Currie (KQ) NZL 07:35:46 08:12:09 00:46:15 04:03:50 04:55:05 02:40:41 74% +8% -18% (13)
4 8 Franz Loeschke GER 07:36:19 08:10:05 00:46:45 04:01:31 04:53:16 02:43:03 80% +0% -20% (4)
5 1 Andreas Dreitz (KQ) GER 07:37:12 08:15:44 00:48:09 03:54:23 04:47:32 02:49:40 71% +0% -29% (7)
6 9 Pieter Heemeryck (KQ) BEL 07:37:44 08:41:59 00:46:42 04:01:12 04:52:54 02:44:50 40% +42% -18% (3)
7 7 Nils Frommhold GER 07:43:34 08:20:53 00:46:35 04:01:43 04:53:18 02:50:16 58% +0% -42% (14)
8 64 Justin Metzler (KQ) USA 07:44:26 08:30:37 00:49:14 04:04:03 04:58:17 02:46:09 10% +75% -16% (5)
9 3 Nick Kastelein AUS 07:46:51 08:26:20 00:46:00 04:04:18 04:55:18 02:51:33 45% +0% -55% (7)
10 60 Marc Duelsen GER 07:52:29 08:26:52 00:50:36 04:05:24 05:01:00 02:51:29 86% +0% -14% (16)
11 190 Kevin Collington USA 07:53:18 08:36:57 00:47:02 04:11:48 05:03:50 02:49:28 37% +16% -47% (7)
12 132 Sebastian Mahr GER 08:01:00 08:46:00 00:48:03 04:18:39 05:11:42 02:49:18 100% +0% -0% (2)
13 24 Kevin Portmann (KQ) FRA 08:03:17 08:50:19 00:55:00 04:08:16 05:08:16 02:55:01 44% +45% -11% (6)
14 67 Thomas Davis GBR 08:03:56 08:45:24 00:46:56 04:16:18 05:08:14 02:55:42 43% +0% -57% (4)
15 21 Aliksandr Vasilevich BLR 08:08:32 08:59:26 00:47:31 04:18:39 05:11:10 02:57:22 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
16 19 Tobias Heining GER 08:08:37 09:00:49 00:48:41 04:17:43 05:11:24 02:57:13 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
17 158 Felix Hentschel GER 08:18:02 09:14:49 00:53:51 04:15:40 05:14:31 03:03:31 28% +0% -72% (3)
18 14 Tom Oosterdijk * NED 08:23:03 09:15:16 00:56:57 04:23:28 05:25:25 02:57:38 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
19 25 Sanne Swolfs BEL 08:28:18 09:20:25 00:51:23 04:17:51 05:14:14 03:14:04 52% +0% -48% (2)
20 15 Till Schramm GER 08:31:12 09:28:56 00:53:22 04:20:52 05:19:14 03:11:58 40% +7% -54% (13)
21 56 Robert Karas POL 08:31:33 09:26:00 00:50:25 04:27:21 05:22:46 03:08:47 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
22 75 Jarno Piik FIN 08:32:34 09:30:47 01:12:22 04:20:08 05:37:30 02:55:04 48% +0% -52% (2)
23 18 Mikita Hryhoryeu BLR 08:34:51 09:24:09 00:51:07 04:32:46 05:28:53 03:05:58 60% +0% -40% (4)
  2 Ruben Zepuntke GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  16 Chris Dels GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  20 Joona Tuikka FIN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (3)
  22 Silas Koehn GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  27 Quentin De Vos BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  28 Tero Setola FIN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  29 Javier Perez Garcia ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race)
  30 Kevin Vabaorg EST n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  219 Philipp Bahlke * GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 36% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency
1 107 Anne Haug (KQ) GER 08:12:17 08:47:22 00:51:16 04:27:42 05:23:58 02:48:19 80% +20% -0% (4)
2 101 Sarah Crowley (KQ) AUS 08:22:17 09:06:18 00:51:32 04:24:31 05:21:03 03:01:14 70% +14% -16% (14)
3 729 Fenella Langridge (KQ) GBR 08:24:35 09:16:43 00:50:30 04:21:04 05:16:34 03:08:01 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
4 102 Laura Siddall (KQ) GBR 08:36:20 09:27:07 00:56:40 04:30:35 05:32:15 03:04:05 83% +7% -10% (23)
5 105 Sarah Piampiano (KQ) USA 08:36:55 09:23:03 01:00:24 04:31:23 05:36:47 03:00:08 61% +12% -26% (29)
6 108 Kimberley Morrison (KQ) GBR 08:46:59 09:26:52 00:53:50 04:25:23 05:24:13 03:22:46 76% +0% -24% (8)
7 103 Rach McBride (KQ) CAN 08:48:39 09:32:15 00:51:27 04:30:00 05:26:27 03:22:12 89% +11% -0% (10)
8 109 Chloe Lane (KQ) AUS 08:48:58 09:48:36 00:51:47 04:33:12 05:29:59 03:18:59 19% +60% -22% (3)
9 124 Tiina Pohjalainen FIN 08:49:44 09:44:27 01:02:02 04:34:00 05:41:02 03:08:42 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
10 111 Jenny Schulz GER 08:50:10 09:47:37 01:00:58 04:40:25 05:46:23 03:03:47 12% +42% -46% (7)
11 116 Hanna Maksimova BLR 08:50:12 09:41:59 00:55:08 04:49:44 05:49:52 03:00:20 100% +0% -0% (2)
12 123 Heini Hartikainen FIN 08:55:15 09:41:35 01:01:29 04:31:21 05:37:50 03:17:25 29% +51% -20% (4)
13 122 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 08:55:17 09:41:25 00:58:09 04:36:52 05:40:01 03:15:16 69% +3% -28% (20)
14 115 Ewa Komander POL 08:57:12 09:48:27 00:55:35 04:38:52 05:39:27 03:17:45 63% +0% -37% (4)
15 741 Gabriella Zelinka HUN 08:57:45 09:48:56 00:56:23 04:39:18 05:40:41 03:17:04 22% +47% -31% (5)
16 110 Bruna Mahn BRA 09:02:41 09:51:52 00:56:02 04:51:25 05:52:27 03:10:14 72% +28% -0% (8)
17 113 Antonina Reznikov ISR 09:07:08 10:04:07 01:11:40 04:37:02 05:53:42 03:13:26 42% +58% -0% (4)
18 112 Katharina Wolff GER 09:11:04 10:02:07 00:57:18 04:52:11 05:54:29 03:16:35 100% +0% -0% (2)
19 118 Jenny Fletcher CAN 09:19:38 10:12:55 00:55:45 04:50:15 05:51:00 03:28:38 73% +0% -27% (4)
20 117 Venla Koivula FIN 09:23:43 10:22:39 01:03:13 04:40:35 05:48:48 03:34:55 4% +96% -0% (2)
  106 Elena Illeditsch GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  120 Maja Betz GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race)
  737 Anna-Lena Best-Pohl GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Patrick Lange: 46% (1-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle: 39% (2-1)
  • Braden Currie: 11% (8-1)
  • Andreas Dreitz: 3% (31-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Anne Haug: 54% (1-1)
  • Sarah Crowley: 28% (3-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 6% (15-1)
  • Laura Siddall: 6% (16-1)
  • Fenella Langridge: 4% (23-1)
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“The Championship” Challenge Samorin – Analyzing Results

ChallengeSamorinMale Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Florian Angert GER 00:25:31 01:55:19 01:09:48 03:36:02 -10:52 EUR 10,000
2 Magnus Elbaek Ditlev DEN 00:27:22 01:56:30 01:10:11 03:39:44 -04:43 EUR 5,500
3 Frederic Funk GER 00:25:56 01:54:38 01:14:10 03:40:24 -06:51 EUR 3,500
4 Thomas Steger AUT 00:28:50 01:59:39 01:06:17 03:40:45 -06:42 EUR 2,500
5 Andreas Dreitz GER 00:28:43 01:59:01 01:11:43 03:45:44 00:11 EUR 1,250
6 Boris Stein GER 00:31:40 01:56:53 01:13:18 03:47:15 -02:24 EUR 1,000
7 Sam Wade GBR 00:27:20 02:02:58 01:12:02 03:47:59 -07:14 EUR 750
8 Eric Lagerstrom USA 00:25:58 02:03:02 01:14:09 03:48:35 -05:21 EUR 500
9 Michael Raelert GER 00:26:29 02:01:51 01:19:44 03:53:06 -00:09  
10 Ondrej Kubo SVK 00:30:32 02:05:53 01:14:36 03:56:50 02:34  
11 Pete Dyson GBR 00:32:05 02:04:00 01:15:30 03:57:19 -08:22  
12 Jakub Langhammer CZE 00:29:11 02:09:51 01:14:50 03:59:21 03:00  
13 James Teagle GBR 00:27:23 02:03:50 01:29:15 04:05:59 15:39  
14 Fernando Barroso ESP 00:29:08 02:16:54 01:13:35 04:06:03 -10:12  
  Richard Varga SVK 00:24:42 02:05:58   DNF    

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Lucy Hall GBR 00:26:50 02:13:49 01:24:22 04:10:44 -10:18 EUR 10,000
2 Sara Perez Sala ESP 00:26:51 02:16:57 01:22:52 04:12:14 -08:28 EUR 5,500
3 Haley Chura USA 00:27:10 02:22:11 01:18:20 04:14:38 -09:54 EUR 3,500
4 Grace Thek AUS 00:31:55 02:21:57 01:18:06 04:18:03 -03:04 EUR 2,500
5 Aleksandra Jedrzejewska POL 00:32:04 02:22:00 01:18:40 04:18:47 -11:41 EUR 1,250
6 Elisabetta Curridori ITA 00:32:31 02:22:11 01:18:58 04:19:45 -03:03 EUR 1,000
7 Sarissa De Vries NED 00:29:15 02:28:08 01:18:52 04:22:43 05:30 EUR 750
8 Lisa Norden SWE 00:29:20 02:24:51 01:24:10 04:24:31 06:05 EUR 500
9 Fenella Langridge GBR 00:29:08 02:31:26 01:20:50 04:26:46 08:07  
10 Judith Corachan Vaquera ESP 00:29:20 02:35:20 01:20:39 04:31:19 10:48  
11 Nikola Corbova SVK 00:35:38 02:27:03 01:22:12 04:31:40 -08:50  
12 India Lee GBR 00:29:10 02:36:56 01:24:26 04:36:42 20:01  
  Juliane Hofmann GER 00:47:30 02:42:49   DNF    
  Justine Mathieux FRA 00:29:17     DNF    
  Laura Jansen GER 00:34:45     DNF    
0

Ironman Hamburg 2021 – Analyzing Results

IMHHLogoCourse Conditions

The latest changes to the Ironman Hamburg bike leg have made the course even faster than before. We’ve seen a number of new course records: Winner Laura Zimmermann set a new overall course record, super-swimmer Lauren Brandon set a new swim course record, and second place Renee Kiley broke the bike course record. 

Kona Qualifying

Ironman Hamburg was the last Pro Qualifier for Kona 2021 (which is now postponed until February). The two slots for the females go to 

  • Laura Zimmermann
    and
  • Renee Kiley

The full list of Professional Kona Qualifiers can be found here.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Laura Zimmermann GER 00:59:51 04:42:05 03:05:42 08:54:30 -04:32 US$ 15,000
2 Renee Kiley AUS 00:56:11 04:39:48 03:12:42 08:56:47 -24:02 US$ 9,000
3 Lauren Brandon USA 00:47:45 04:44:41 03:20:35 09:00:49 -25:27 US$ 7,000
4 Leonie Konczalla GER 01:01:55 04:43:28 03:11:03 09:04:13 n/a US$ 5,000
5 Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:56:09 04:40:09 03:28:59 09:12:18 09:20 US$ 4,000
6 Jenny Nae SWE 01:04:12 05:01:56 03:15:07 09:30:00 -11:02 US$ 3,000
7 Cathrine Sand DEN 00:59:55 04:59:52 03:27:34 09:35:32 n/a US$ 2,500
8 Ashley Paulson USA 01:13:18 05:16:02 02:57:13 09:35:44 -10:11 US$ 2,000
9 Annika Timm GER 01:09:52 05:03:58 03:49:45 10:11:20 17:30 US$ 1,500
10 Mirella Karlsson SWE 01:04:22 05:14:22 03:56:04 10:31:31 n/a US$ 1,000
  Svenja Thoes GER 00:56:13 04:46:09   DNF    
  Anna-Lena Best-Pohl GER 00:52:05     DNF    
  Kayla Kobelin USA 01:09:43     DNF    
0

Collins Cup (August 28th) – Seedings

Here’s a detailed look at the matches that make up the inaugural Collins Cup on August 28th in Samorin, Slovakia. I’ve scaled down the times from the typical half distance to the Collins Cup distances of 2k swim, 80k bike and 18k run (total distance 100k), also taking into account that most of the bike will be on a fast, mildly rolling motorway. Without any previous races on the course it is difficult to come up with “exact times”, however the differences between the athletes are much more solid and should give you a good indication of who is likely to swim faster than the others etc.

Another aspect that is hard to account for is the unique format of the Collins Cup with only three athletes in the race. This is likely making it easier to break away from the others as there are fewer athletes who will put in extra work to close gaps. In addition, everyone is not only racing for themselves but also for the team – so even athletes falling behind are likely to be working extra hard for the team, to avoid losing too much time and to prevent the others teams from earning bonus points. 

As always, the numbers shown in this “Seedings” post should not be considered “the last word” – the intention is to serve as starting points for conversations. So please feel free to add your observations and opinions to my data-centric analysis below when entering your picks for the PTO Fantasy Game for the Collins Cup!

Each of the matches below has its interesting aspects. Here are a few extra caveats on the data below:

  • The US wildcards on the women’s side, Taylor Kibb and Katie Zaferes are very hard to predict – Taylor has had only one race on the half distance, Katie none so far. Obviously, with the limited amount of data points you can’t put too much faith in the expected times shown below – giving a lot of room for speculations!
  • Some athletes were forced to take a break to deal with injuries. For example, Teresa’s last race was in January, and Sebi was dealing with an injury that kept him from starting a race since May. Will they be able to race at almost 100% in their first race back?
  • It’s hard to properly account for recent travel and racing stress. A lot of athletes have had intercontinental travel to make it to Samorin and might still be adjusting to time zone changes. Some athletes have been racing a lot in recent weeks on a number of distances – e.g. in WTCS races (Taylor, Katie), Escape from Alcatraz (Emma, Ben), some even in a long-distance race (Jocelyn at IM Finland, Lionel at IM Copenhagen). What will this mean when they will need their absolute best in their matches?

Match 1: Daniela Ryf vs. Teresa Adam vs. Taylor Knibb

27B0E0ED D45A 47D8 AB4F B73508C668F6 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Daniela Ryf EUR 00:28:14 01:52:02 02:25:16 01:09:06 03:34:22
Teresa Adam Int’l 00:28:02 01:51:54 02:24:56 01:16:59 03:41:55
Taylor Knibb USA 00:28:08 01:56:32 02:29:40 01:09:33 03:39:13

Winning Chances:

  • Daniela Ryf: 70%
  • Taylor Knibb: 15%
  • Teresa Adam: 15%

Match 2: Lucy Charles-Barclay vs. Paula Findlay vs. Katie Zaferes

625FE0FE 6B70 4EC6 8C99 433727DA2313 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Lucy Charles-Barclay EUR 00:26:15 01:54:52 02:26:07 01:08:46 03:34:53
Paula Findlay Int’l 00:28:08 01:55:21 02:28:29 01:09:53 03:38:22
Katie Zaferes USA 00:27:38 01:56:12 02:28:50 01:09:10 03:38:00

Winning Chances:

  • Lucy Charles-Barclay: 60%
  • Paula Findlay: 25%
  • Katie Zaferes: 15%

Match 3: Annie Haug vs. Jeannie Metzler vs. Jackie Hering

F896B089 EBC3 4A7E AB6B 30D99000C145 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Anne Haug EUR 00:29:52 01:58:06 02:32:58 01:04:50 03:37:48
Jeanni Metzler Int’l 00:28:31 01:57:58 02:31:29 01:09:13 03:40:42
Jackie Hering USA 00:30:01 01:59:16 02:34:17 01:09:18 03:43:35

Winning Chances:

  • Anne Haug: 65%
  • Jeanni Metzler: 20% 
  • Jackie Hering: 15%

Match 4: Holly Lawrence vs. Ellie Salthouse vs. Skye Moench

3F3D207B 3AD0 4A89 868E FB57ABB77088 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Holly Lawrence EUR 00:27:32 01:55:01 02:27:33 01:09:41 03:37:14
Ellie Salthouse Int’l 00:28:32 01:57:40 02:31:12 01:11:09 03:42:21
Skye Moench USA 00:30:15 01:55:27 02:30:42 01:10:57 03:41:39

Winning Chances:

  • Holly Lawrence: 50%
  • Ellie Salthouse: 25%
  • Skye Moench: 25%

Match 5: Emma Pallant-Browne vs. Sarah Crowley vs. Chelsea Sodaro

5B8BBAC1 DCE9 4134 B998 EADEBC0A62B0 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Emma Pallant-Browne EUR 00:29:44 01:56:51 02:31:35 01:08:33 03:40:08
Sarah Crowley Int’l 00:29:22 01:58:15 02:32:37 01:11:56 03:44:33
Chelsea Sodaro USA 00:29:26 01:56:51 02:31:17 01:09:16 03:40:33

Winning Chances:

  • Chelsea Sodaro: 40%
  • Emma Pallant-Browne: 40%
  • Sarah Crowley: 20%

Match 6: Katrina Matthews vs. Carrie Lester vs. Jocelyn McCauley

B4858D85 0EFF 4D5A A6FA 567A99BB291F 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Katrina Matthews EUR 00:30:22 01:58:46 02:34:08 01:10:03 03:44:11
Carrie Lester Int’l 00:29:20 01:58:09 02:32:29 01:14:02 03:46:31
Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:29:41 01:57:29 02:32:10 01:17:01 03:49:11

Winning Chances:

  • Katrina Matthews: 60%
  • Carrie Lester: 30%
  • Jocelyn McCauley: 10%

Match 7: Jan Frodeno vs. Sam Appleton vs. Sam Long

AFCEE828 E321 46DD BC52 ADA18D0A56A8 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Jan Frodeno EUR 00:25:19 01:43:25 02:13:44 00:59:54 03:13:38
Sam Appleton Int’l 00:25:42 01:42:14 02:12:56 01:04:35 03:17:31
Sam Long USA 00:29:17 01:40:22 02:14:39 01:02:09 03:16:48

Winning Chances:

  • Jan Frodeno: 50%
  • Sam Long: 30%
  • Sam Appleton: 20%

Match 8: Gustav Iden vs. Kyle Smith vs. Colin Chartier

1EAFD4DA 5427 4441 9039 C50F78D3C426 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Gustav Iden EUR 00:26:25 01:41:50 02:13:15 00:58:00 03:11:15
Kyle Smith Int’l 00:25:24 01:43:40 02:14:04 01:04:24 03:18:28
Collin Chartier USA 00:26:12 01:44:33 02:15:45 01:03:40 03:19:25

Winning Chances:

  • Gustav Iden: 70%
  • Kyle Smith: 20%
  • Collin Chartier: 10%

Match 9: Sebastian Kienle vs. Lionel Sanders vs. Andrew Starykowicz

E30DBA37 400F 4941 8541 4DA6C006C0D8 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Sebastian Kienle EUR 00:27:59 01:42:06 02:15:05 01:01:45 03:16:50
Lionel Sanders Int’l 00:28:21 01:39:43 02:13:04 01:00:19 03:13:23
Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:27:06 01:40:32 02:10:29 01:07:44 03:20:13

Winning Chances:

  • Lionel Sanders: 60%
  • Sebastian Kienle: 25%
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 15%

Note: This match is probably the hardest to predict as there are recent developments that did not play a role in the seed times above. The most obvious one is that Lionel has completed IM Copenhagen just 6 days before this race, and no one really knows how well he’s recovered and how hard he’ll be able to race. In addition, Sebastian Kienle was forced to take an injury break after racing in May, and this will be his first race back. You can be pretty sure that Andrew Starykowicz would love to beat my numbers and win his match. 

Match 10: Daniel Baekkegard vs. Max Neumann vs. Ben Kanute

0DED4C30 44ED 406D A46E E36E34EC50C8 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Daniel Baekkegard EUR 00:25:26 01:45:50 02:16:16 01:02:15 03:18:31
Max Neumann Int’l 00:25:23 01:46:27 02:16:50 01:04:00 03:20:50
Ben Kanute USA 00:25:25 01:43:33 02:13:58 01:05:34 03:19:32

Winning Chances:

  • Daniel Baekkegard: 45%
  • Ben Kanute: 35%
  • Max Neumann: 20%

Match 11: Patrick Lange vs. Braden Currie vs. Matt Hanson

C80CC1D3 54B1 4C7C 8EBD 3D1B95AFA380 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Patrick Lange EUR 00:26:13 01:46:32 02:17:45 01:00:58 03:18:43
Braden Currie Int’l 00:26:02 01:46:09 02:17:11 01:02:30 03:19:41
Matt Hanson USA 00:27:49 01:45:19 02:18:08 01:00:53 03:19:01

Winning Chances:

  • Patrick Lange: 45%
  • Matt Hanson: 30% 
  • Braden Currie: 25%

Match 12: Joe Skipper vs. Jackson Laundry vs. Justin Metzler

F4EFF9D4 16DB 4E6F A1F3 E3007FF1B47E 1 105 c

Name Team ESwim EBike ET2 Run EFinish
Joe Skipper EUR 00:29:27 01:46:14 02:20:41 01:08:08 03:28:49
Jackson Laundry Int’l 00:27:31 01:44:59 02:17:30 01:02:45 03:20:15
Justin Metzler USA 00:26:44 01:46:43 02:18:27 01:04:44 03:23:11

Winning Chances:

  • Jackson Laundry: 60%
  • Justin Metzler: 30%
  • Joe Skipper: 10%
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