TriRating

Before the start of the 2019 long-distance racing season, here is a subjective list of trends and athletes to look for. I’m sure that there will be more athletes that are going to impact racing this year, so apologies in advance to anyone who isn’t mentioned!

Further Improvements

Last year’s post had a long list of athletes that were getting ready for their debut race on the IM distance. Some of them (e.g. Anne Haug, Sarah True) had great first seasons and huge results in Kona, some did well but maybe not quite as well as expected (e.g. Javier Gomez), some even struggled to qualify or even had to postpone their debut race and missed Kona qualifying (e.g. Emma Pallant or Laura Philipp).

The 2019 season is probably not going to see another influx of new names but rather a progression of athletes in their Ironman racing: Anne and Sarah have done well in Kona and will be looking to build on their Kona 2018 results. Emma will have to continue to work on her long-distance racing skills – it seems she still has to figure out proper race nutrition in order to do well in the last hour of racing. Laura has overcome her mid-season injuries and qualified for Kona 2019 with a new German fastest time in Barcelona.

In addition, there are athletes who made some progress in 2018 who will work hard for an even better 2019. Lucy Charles was already second in Kona twice, she’ll continue to work on closing the gap to Daniela and stay ahead of the rest of the field in Kona. Braden Currie and Joe Skipper have had great seasons and good Kona results, both are hungry to prove that last season’s results have just been an intermediate step. And Cam Wurf – while breaking bike course records whenever he raced – has also made solid progress on his run, closing the gap to the Kona podium from 21 minutes in 2017 to nine minutes in 2018.

Progress of the German Women

While the German men have been dominating in Kona for a number of years (five wins in the last five years), the German women haven’t been able to have similar successes. Last year I predicted two German women in the Kona Top 10, and with Anne Haug in third and Mareen Hufe in 13th that goal was almost reached.

Anne and Mareen continue to race this season (Anne just needs to validate her Kona slot with an IM finish and Mareen secured her Kona slot with a win in Malaysia), and there’s another increase in strong German women looking towards a good Kona result. Daniela Sämmler posted a German record in Roth 2018, then already qualified for Kona with a win at IM Italy in September.   (She’ll be racing as Daniela Bleymehl now after getting married shortly before Christmas.) Laura Philipp broke Daniela’s German record by winning IM Barcelona, and Svenja Thoes also won her IM debut in Cozumel. Anja Beranek (now racing again under her maiden name Anja Ippach) was fourth in Kona 2016, but she struggled in 2017 and 2018. After recovering from Mononucleosis, she is now being coached by Siri Lindley and is back to solid training for the 2019 season. Three recent moms are returning to IM racing, but Julia Gajer, Astrid Stienen and Kristin Liepold (née Möller) will need some more time to get in top shape. Nonetheless, things are looking quite for female IM-distance racing in Germany.

Coming Back From Injury

Last season saw two great “return from life-threatening injury” stories with Matt Russell and Tim Don, and it would be great to see these two celebrate even more great results in 2019.

This year we’re unlikely to see quite that dramatic stories, but there are a number of athletes that haven’t been able to show their full potential because they were struggling with injuries for parts of the 2018 season. Jan Frodeno had a fantastic season until September when he won every race he started, including IM Germany and 70.3 Worlds but then suffered from a hip stress fracture and wasn’t even able to start in Kona. He mentioned that another big win in Kona could have been his last race, so his 2019 is probably focused one more big bang in October. Terenzo Bozzone is another athlete who wasn’t able to race Kona after he was hit by a car and had to take some more time to properly recover from the injuries he sustained. By winning IM Western Australia he already punched his Kona ticket and indicated that his accident was hopefully just a short break of improving his Ironman racing skills. Ben Hoffman never really got his 2018 season properly going, a crash at Cape Epic kept him from racing well in South Africa, and before Kona he suffered from a stress fracture. Hopefully 2019 will see him return to the solid races he has had in the previous years, both in his qualifying races and in Kona. Boris Stein has finished in Kona Top 10 three times in a row between 2015 and 2017, but his season was disrupted just a few days before his target race IM France when he hit a cat in one of his last bike rides. He snagged a last-minute qualifying spot at IM Copenhagen, but didn’t feel good enough in his final Kona build and canceled his start. The final male athlete I want to highlight is Sebastian Kienle – after winning Challenge Roth which was the fastest 2018 time outside of Texas, an achilles niggle flared up in his Kona build, leading to a sub-standard bike and a DNF early on the run. He’s changed up a few things and I expect him to come back shooting for another Kona win this year.

There were also some athletes on the female side who didn’t have a consistent 2018 season as well. Mel Hauschildt recovered from her surgery to win IM Texas (her third Regional Championship on three different continents!) but then needed another surgery on her other leg and couldn’t race Kona. Annabel Luxford managed to qualify for Kona but also didn’t race – she seemed to struggle with chest infections and that had a major impact on her  Kona prep.

All of these stories are examples of the fine edge between “being fit and being f*cked” (as Sebi put it before Kona) and how one little thing – often without any “fault” of the athlete – can disrupt a whole season. Hopefully struggles in 2018 are going to be offset by a better 2019 season!

Who dominates in North America – USA or Canada?

The US has been dominating the early years of Ironman racing, but the most recent North American winners are from Canada: Lori Bowden and Peter Reid in 2003. That’s a long time ago, and it’s an interesting question where the next North American winners will be coming from.

On the men’s side, there have been podium results by US athletes Tim O’Donnell (third in 2015) and Ben Hoffman (second in 2014), but the closest to a Kona win was been Lionel Sanders who finished second in 2017. In 2018, the top North American finisher was again Tim O’Donnell but there is a strong contingent of Canadians we can expect to race well in Kona: Lionel will work hard to bounce back from his disappointing 2018 race, and Cody Beals has won both IMs he’s been racing so far. Brent McMahon is racing well in his qualifying Ironman races but hasn’t been quite figured out how to transfer that to Kona.

There is a similar rivalry on the female side: Heather Jackson has been the top North American finisher in Kona except this year, but with Sarah True another US woman finished fourth behind three Europeans. Linsey Corbin finished tenth, followed by Sarah Piampiano in eleventh place. Other strong American women include Meredith Kessler (still working on “getting Kona right”), Lesley Smith, Lisa Roberts, Jocelyn McCauley, Jodie Robertson and Lauren Brandon – all of these have the potential for an Ironman win during the season and a good Kona result. But Canada also had a Kona Top 10 finish this year (Angela Naeth in eighth place), and with Jen Annett, Kirsty Jahn, and Rachel McBride there are a few more promising athletes.

It looks to me that the US still has a few more athletes with Kona Top 10 potential, but things are pretty even when looking for the next North American Kona winner.

Photo Credits: All Photos © by Ingo Kutsche, used with permission.

Last year in March, I posted on the athletes I expected to have an impact on 2018 racing (see Who to Look for in 2018 Long-distance Racing):

Here’s a brief look back on how the 2018 season developed for the athletes I mentioned.

Athletes Stepping Up to Ironman Racing

• Emma Pallant
  Emma struggled a bit moving up to the longer distances. She DNF’d in her first IM in South Africa, then finished third at IM Austria, securing her Kona slot (another DNF). She had more success over the 70.3 distance, winning three races and finishing ninth in the 70.3 World Champs.
• Laura Philipp
  After three 70.3 wins at the start of her season, Laura had to cancel her IM debut that was planned for IM Germany when she had issues with her Achilles. She recovered in time for two more 70.3 wins and her first full Ironman which she smashed with a new German fastest time and a win at IM Barcelona.
• Anne Haug
  Anne had a good build-up to IM Germany where she struggled with a flat early in the bike and pacing issues on the run. She still finished fourth, just enough to get a Kona slot. After finishing third at 70.3 Worlds she raced Kona without any expectations. The race turned out extremely well for her when she was able to ride with a big bike group and then to have the fastest run of the day which allowed her to finish in third place.
• Javier Gomez
  Javier had a good first IM in Cairns when he finished sub-8 and in second after a close running duel with Braden Currie. He continued to race well on the 70.3 distance and was third at 70.3 Worlds after close racing with Jan Frodeno and Alistair Brownlee. His Kona race didn’t quite go according to plan when he lost some time with a flat in the last part of the bike and then didn’t quite have the run everyone (including himself) thought he had in him. After running just under three hours, he eventually finishing eleventh.
  For 2019/2020 he has announced a renewed focus on the shorter distances and the 2020 Olympic Games.

Returning Super Moms

• Mirinda Carfrae
  Rinny had a solid first season back: She raced (and won) a few 70.3s, validated her Kona slot with a second place at IM Cairns, then finished fifth in Kona. She also secured her place on the Kona 2019 start line by finishing IM Mar del Plata in early December. I think you can expect her to contend for the Kona podium in October 2019.
• Meredith Kessler
  Meredith had to race a lot for her Kona slot – she finished two full IMs and four 70.3s between April and August. She wasn’t able to “figure out Kona” (adding a DNF to her long list of disappointments on the Island) and also didn’t seem to be fresh for Arizona in November.
• Liz Blatchford
  Liz had an up (wins at IM Philippines and IM Mont Tremblant) and down season (more injuries), so she decided to end her career after Kona. Racing without expectations, finishing twelfth is a satisfying good-bye race for her.
• Jodie Cunnama
  Jodie had to focus this year on taking care of son Jack and supporting husband James, as a miscarriage made racing impossible. Hopefully 2019 is going to be a better year for her!
• Caroline Steffen
  Caroline took some time coming back, but she ended the year with a bang by winning IM Western Australia and securing a Kona slot. I’m sure she has her eyes on delivering another great race in Kona 2019.

The First Sub-4 Bike Leg?

• Andrew Starykowicz
  Andrew delivered the first sub-4 bike ride at IM Texas (3:54:59), at first not accepted by Ironman because of the slightly shortened course. A few days after the race Ironman accepted the Texas results as valid as a lot of other courses are also short. Still, there wasn’t much marshaling and a lot of Texas results are questionable because of drafting – something that is unlikely to have Andrew him as there isn’t much drafting at the front of the race and without motorbikes on the course.
• Cameron Wurf
  Cam Wurf set bike course records on every course he raced this year (including Kona), but instead of cracking the four-hour mark was probably more focused on improving his run and placing well overall.

Coming Back from Injury

• Mel Hauschildt
  Mel was able to win IM Texas with what is officially the IM-brand record, but the had more problems while racing 70.3 Philippines. It was determined that she needed another procedure to correct issues with her iliac artery, this time in her right leg. She had surgery in November 2018 and is hopefully recovering well to have a successful 2019 season.
• Angela Naeth
  Angela returned to IM racing in June at IM Boulder, but she had contracted Lyme’s disease and struggled to run well. After racing more IMs in the Netherlands and Sweden, she received a Kona slot in late September when her protest led to a DQ of two athletes in the Netherlands. She had a great race in Kona, finishing in eighth place.
• Tim Don
  After being forced to wear a halo after breaking his neck in Kona, Tim had a great Boston Marathon in April and also won his first 70.3 in Costa Rica. He was looking to add enough KPR points by racing IM Hamburg (9th) and IM Copenhagen (DNF) and was the final August qualifier when one slot rolled down. He tackled his Kona demons and was happy to race, finishing 36th.
• Matt Russell
  Matt is clearly the “comeback of the year”. After hitting a truck in the Kona race and almost bleeding to death, he was able to race IM Texas in April, but he still wasn’t fully healed quite yet. He missed qualifying even after podium finishes at IM Canada and IM Mont Tremblant, but he received a well deserved wild card entry by Ironman. In Kona he had a fantastic day, making up time on the bike and also having a great run, finishing in sixth place.

Regional Trends

• (Even) More Germans in Kona
  A number of top Germans struggled in Kona, Jan Frodeno wasn’t able to race at all and Sebastian Kienle DNF’d. Still, Patrick Lange was able to extend the “German Streak” of male winners since 2014. He was helped by Andi Dreitz who finished 13th, while Maurice Clavel also biked well but then fell back on the run to 19th place.
  Anne Haug – representing the German ladies – had a great result with her podium finish in Kona. Some other women had issues (see the section on athletes stepping up to the IM distance above), but there is a long list of promising athletes for 2019.
• The Big American Hope to Win Kona
  The list of great American Ironwomen had an interesting addition with Sarah True who finished second in Frankfurt and fourth in Kona in her first season of long-distance racing. Heather Jackson struggled in Kona but then went on to set a new US fastest time when winning IM Arizona. Other American ladies did well but didn’t quite have the great results they were looking for.
  The “old US guard” on the men’s side is still going strong, this year Tim O’Donnell, Matt Russell and Andy Potts finished in the Top 10, while Ben Hoffman struggled with two injuries and wasn’t able to race Kona. Beyond these four, there still isn’t a proven Kona contender. For example, Matt Hanson continued his string of great racing in Texas and frustrating Kona results (33rd this year).
• Scandinavian Ladies
  Once again, the top Scandinavian Kona finisher was Kaisa Sali, even though she was probably looking for more than seventh place. The other established Scandinavian ladies weren’t quite able to match her and finished well outside of the Top 10.
• Rule Britannia
  This year’s Kona race had some more good results for British athletes, with Lucy Charles and David McNamee repeating their second and third places from last year and Joe Skipper and Corinne Abraham also moving up into the Top 10. With all the success on the shorter distances, it seems likely we will see more British athletes doing well in the coming years.
• Aussie Aussie
  On the female side, the Aussies have had two Top 10 (Mirinda Carfrae fifth, Sarah Crowley sixth), while Cameron Wurf was the best Aussie male in ninth place. Another solid year for the Australians, but it doesn’t look as if they will be able to snag their next Kona win soon.
• Asians Starting to Close the Gap
  Ironman continues to work on their expansion in Asia and China, but the number of changing venues indicates that this is not an easy goal to achieve. We also haven’t seen any notable results by Asian athletes last season – the fastest IM finish was an 8:55 at IM Malaysia by Japanese athlete Kaito Toharo. It seems to me that the growth of races and athletes will feed off each other, and both will need a bit more time.