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Ironman Taiwan 2015 (April 12th) – Predictions

This is the first race on this course. The „predicted“ times are therefore only based on the athletes previous results and do not take potential course conditions into account.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Taiwan is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:31:17 08:27:23 00:51:05 04:42:22 02:52:50 17
2 2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:45:42 08:49:01 00:51:56 04:52:19 02:56:26 83
3 13 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:52:22 09:07:46 00:55:31 04:44:55 03:06:56 159
4 4 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:54:57 09:06:26 00:53:51 04:48:34 03:07:31 152
5 5 Patrick Evoe USA 08:57:36 08:56:41 00:56:12 04:48:34 03:07:50 116
6 11 Patrick Jaberg SUI 09:02:26 09:06:05 00:53:35 04:53:45 03:10:06 151
7 3 Karol Dzalaj SVK 09:04:28 09:08:46 00:53:56 04:48:53 03:16:40 168
8 6 Mauro Baertsch SUI 09:05:38 09:17:38 00:53:52 05:02:12 03:04:33 (205)
9 14 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:05:44 09:03:54 01:00:51 04:51:49 03:08:04 146
10 10 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 09:09:41 09:10:01 00:53:54 05:03:34 03:07:13 176
11 15 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:12:44 09:55:36 00:56:20 04:47:47 03:23:37 359
12 12 Henrik Oftedal NOR 09:19:58 09:24:21 01:02:01 04:53:47 03:19:10 (241)
13 9 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:22:57 09:33:49 00:57:56 04:52:36 03:27:25 272
14 17 Deak Zsombor ROM 09:44:44 09:56:30 00:57:57 05:25:11 03:16:37 (366)
15 16 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:59:20 12:05:00 01:13:22 06:10:20 04:30:38 484
7 Daniel Brown AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
8 Rod De Kanel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 21 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 09:39:59 09:42:16 01:02:52 05:16:42 03:15:25 46
2 23 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:44:38 09:54:42 01:02:38 05:18:04 03:18:55 76
3 25 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:46:55 09:59:54 00:53:03 05:15:32 03:33:21 87
4 22 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:50:57 09:55:10 01:09:14 05:16:23 03:20:20 77
5 24 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:53:23 10:02:36 00:55:17 05:30:04 03:23:02 93
6 26 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:53:36 09:58:44 01:06:52 05:22:19 03:19:25 86
7 28 Caroline Gregory USA 10:14:13 10:23:22 00:55:47 05:44:42 03:28:44 145
8 31 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:18:52 10:21:03 00:54:02 05:32:04 03:47:46 139
9 29 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:37:09 10:56:27 01:03:20 05:34:41 03:54:07 (169)
27 Sandra Fantini FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Samantha Morrison USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Eva Potuckova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
33 Alena Stevens SVK n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Cameron Brown: 70% (1-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 18% (5-1)
  • Domenico Passuello: 5% (20-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 3% (30-1)
  • Patrick Evoe: 2% (41-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Kim Schwabenbauer: 33% (2-1)
  • Dede Griesbauer: 30% (2-1)
  • Dimity-Lee Duke: 13% (6-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 9% (10-1)
  • Shiao-yu Li: 8% (12-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 7% (13-1)

Ironman South Africa 2015 – Analyzing Results

Conditions on Race Day

After the course changes in 2014, we’ve had very similar conditions this year: An adjustment of -15:21 compared to -15:12 this year indicates a very slow course, mainly because of a pretty hard bike. From what I’ve heard, the wind was again blowing from an Easterly direction making the bike harder. Maybe we’ll have a different direction next year, possibly making the course a bit faster.

Male Race Results

Fredrik Van Lierde put up a clinic: After a solid swim he posted a fast bike ride (more than 11 minutes quicker than the second fastest by his country man Bart Aeronauts), followed by a sub-2:50 marathon without any pressure on him. He won by almost 15 minutes in front of Ivan Rana who posted the fastest run. Bart Aernouts didn’t quite find his speedy run legs, but was able to secure his Kona slot finishing third. Matt Trautmann ran through the field to claim fourth place, while Eneko Llanos had to settle for fifth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:49:20 04:32:45 02:49:45 08:16:35 -18:57 US$ 30000
2 Ivan Rana ESP 00:49:28 04:48:22 02:48:44 08:30:45 -10:59 US$ 15000
3 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:52:07 04:44:30 02:55:04 08:35:59 -04:07 US$ 8000
4 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:51:57 04:48:01 02:53:10 08:37:21 -04:10 US$ 6500
5 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:49:36 04:47:44 02:55:42 08:37:50 01:05 US$ 5000
6 Bas Diederen NED 00:49:31 04:46:56 02:56:51 08:38:14 -04:41 US$ 3500
7 David Mcnamee GBR 00:49:27 04:54:41 02:54:55 08:43:35 n/a US$ 2500
8 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:51:57 04:47:28 03:01:11 08:45:55 -02:34 US$ 2000
9 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:56:19 04:55:15 02:51:15 08:47:10 -02:34 US$ 1500
10 James Cunnama ZAF 00:51:34 04:51:53 02:59:54 08:47:45 -03:15 US$ 1000
11 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:49:34 04:46:39 03:08:04 08:48:43 00:11
12 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:52:03 04:49:50 03:03:20 08:49:55 -09:04
13 Marc Duelsen GER 00:52:00 04:55:14 03:02:48 08:54:15 05:33
14 Michael Ruenz GER 00:53:26 05:01:43 02:57:31 08:57:42 -08:27
15 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:57:24 04:53:41 03:02:13 08:59:09 00:45
16 Johannes Moldan GER 00:51:52 04:50:39 03:16:42 09:03:29 n/a
17 David Plese SLO 00:52:09 04:57:09 03:10:27 09:04:55 12:36
18 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:42 04:55:15 03:16:04 09:06:24 15:14
19 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:51:00 04:58:09 03:12:55 09:07:13 06:05
20 Michael Davidson ZAF 00:57:24 05:11:33 02:58:36 09:12:31 00:48
21 Greg Close USA 01:02:06 05:15:56 03:07:06 09:30:06 00:27
22 Bertrand Billard FRA 00:49:25 04:50:51 03:49:01 09:34:50 26:44
23 Jim Lubinski USA 01:00:04 05:12:48 03:18:13 09:36:50 -10:23
24 Urs Mueller SWI 00:58:17 05:16:50 03:20:04 09:39:39 n/a
25 Allan Hovda NOR 01:08:03 05:18:40 03:08:33 09:40:25 n/a
26 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:49:24 05:27:05 03:04:40 09:40:55 48:53
27 Kent Horner ZAF 00:49:26 05:13:53 03:33:05 09:41:03 09:35
28 Hannes Cool BEL 00:52:10 05:16:45 03:31:45 09:46:18 27:50
29 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:51:56 05:17:10 03:40:53 09:55:19 35:56
30 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 00:54:34 05:27:39 03:32:28 09:59:57 -00:34
31 Craig Twigg GBR 00:52:04 05:07:52 04:51:17 10:58:18 1:10:15
Sylvain Sudrie FRA 00:49:05 04:49:54 DNF
Till Schramm GER 00:58:27 05:13:04 DNF
Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:52:13 05:31:00 DNF
Frederik Flagstad GRL 01:26:38 07:50:05 DNF
Johann Ackermann GER 00:49:19 DNF
Mike Aigroz SUI 00:49:21 DNF
Konstantin Bachor GER 00:49:32 DNF

Female Race Results

Finally, Jodie Swallow put together an all around solid race in her „home IM“: Her usual fast swim was followed by a controlled bike, still putting her in the lead in T2 but only by about two minutes. She then was able to post a good 3:10 marathon (about 9 minutes quicker than last year), extending the lead to more than eight minutes at one point. Speedy runners Lucy Gossage (3:06) and Susie Cheetham (3:03) managed to overtake the earlier chasers Camilla Pedersen and Diana Riesler. This allowed the British athletes to claim all spots on the podium!

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:50:17 05:20:58 03:10:56 09:26:56 -04:01 US$ 30000
2 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:59:35 05:20:12 03:06:04 09:31:20 -05:23 US$ 15000
3 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:52 05:25:54 03:03:38 09:33:02 -05:28 US$ 8000
4 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:52:44 05:20:08 03:17:23 09:35:25 00:04 US$ 6500
5 Diana Riesler GER 00:58:02 05:16:00 03:18:58 09:38:16 -07:09 US$ 5000
6 Eva Wutti AUT 00:59:23 05:20:44 03:15:24 09:40:22 14:48 US$ 3500
7 Britta Martin NZL 00:59:05 05:31:13 03:09:47 09:45:33 -02:07 US$ 2500
8 Astrid Ganzow GER 01:01:26 05:25:43 03:18:03 09:50:29 -05:58 US$ 2000
9 Caitlin Snow USA 00:59:43 05:36:49 03:12:40 09:55:03 09:50 US$ 1500
10 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:03:09 05:27:20 03:25:52 10:01:37 14:07 US$ 1000
11 Eleanor Haresign GBR 00:59:37 05:39:37 03:24:27 10:11:04 -07:48
12 Caroline Livesey GBR 01:02:49 05:40:36 03:25:59 10:15:14 n/a
13 Jessica Meyers USA 01:02:44 05:46:42 03:25:27 10:20:19 09:32
14 Amber Ferreira USA 00:59:36 05:30:16 03:49:30 10:25:30 21:27
15 Nina Pekerman ISR 00:59:38 05:59:25 03:33:32 10:39:12 11:26
16 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:08:13 05:58:31 03:31:18 10:44:35 -09:28
17 Maria Lemeseva RUS 01:15:47 06:10:13 03:33:12 11:06:56 46:24
18 Riana Robertson ZAF 01:00:54 06:11:18 03:56:22 11:14:03 n/a
Corina Hengartner SWI 01:02:41 05:46:57 DNF
Stefanie Adam BEL 00:59:40 05:57:43 DNF
Anne Basso FRA 00:59:38 05:59:50 DNF
Lucie Reed CZE 00:54:48 DNF
Tine Deckers BEL 01:02:36 DNF

Ironman Melbourne 2015 – Analyzing Results

Conditions on Race Day

In the past, weather troubles such as wind (shortened swim in 2013) or lots of rain (first edition in 2012) made the course a bit harder. This year the conditions seemed almost perfect: A calm swim (allowing Marko Albert to post a new course record by four seconds) and not too windy on the bike (allowing Nils Frommhold to post a new bike record by almost two minutes). If there was any „criticism“ of the weather, the run was into a headwind. Overall, the race was a little bit slower than last year (adjustments of 13:57 vs. 15:02), leading to a new course rating of 12:43.

Live Coverage

This was the first time that the new GPS trackers were used for the Pro athletes and a new „Ironfan“ web page was deployed by Ironman. Here are a few observations:

  • There were some improvements: the leaderboard contained a couple of  new, helpful features such as the ability to sort. However, I do not understand why sorting by first name is useful (instead of by last name). Also, the leaderboard was only working off the timing mats, not the GPS data.
  • The Ironfan page showed a map-based tracker, but I couldn’t make much sense of the data that was shown. It appeared that the position of the athletes on the map was some kind of prediction based on previous time checks and earlier performances. Not useful at all.
  • There was a „secret“ website by the Quarq, the manufacturer of the unit. This site showed „live“ GPS data (athlete dots moving around on a map) and seemed to be working well. However, they did not have any leaderboard, resulting in the commentators focusing on the distance between athletes – not helpful at all, we need time differences! (It would require some work to extract this information from the GPS data, but shouldn’t be too difficult.)
There was a live show with two commentators (Greg Welch and Cameron Harper) that did a pretty good job (even if not as „lively“ as Michelle Vesterby, they totally knew what they were talking about). There were pictures from the course at about the same level as what we have seen in Kona (and from Challenge Bahrain and Dubai). The highlight were expert commentary and interviews by Emma Snowsill, Liz Blatchford and Jason Shortis. They inserted some canned ads in the show, but I felt them tolerable (even if the repetition made them worse and worse each time). The only time I found them annoying is when they showed them directly after the Top 3 women, so I missed the next women crossing the line. (Maybe I could have switched to a different stream.) Overall, I’d give the Live Coverage a „B“ – good job by Ironman, but still some room for improvement!

Male Race Results

After a quick swim without too much separation, Nils Frommhold and Luke Bell moved away from a big group of chasers, building an 11-minute lead. The big chase group probably made the pacing decisions  easier for some athletes new to the distance (such as Brad Kahlefeldt or Callum Millward) – it would have been great to see the impact of a 20m drafting rule here. After T2, Luke dropped back, eventually finishing in 15th place with a disappointing 4:16 marathon. For a long time, Nils looked like he had the race in the bag, but he also faded after 30k. Eventually Jeff Symonds proved to be the fastest runner, winning by three minutes over Tim Berkel who pushed the pace until the finish line. Brad Kahlefeldt showed that he can also run well over the marathon distance, posting the second fastest marathon and finishing in third place.

Christian Kramer was the fastest German in fourth place, followed by Nils and another IM rookie, Callum Millward in sixth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:49:40 04:27:30 02:44:14 08:04:29 -16:20
2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:48:06 04:27:17 02:49:20 08:07:57 -12:47
3 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 00:45:29 04:31:00 02:49:15 08:09:21 n/a
4 Christian Kramer GER 00:46:47 04:29:25 02:51:27 08:11:31 -11:11
5 Nils Frommhold GER 00:45:28 04:19:08 03:04:48 08:12:58 11:32
6 Callum Millward NZL 00:46:57 04:29:04 02:54:12 08:14:16 n/a
7 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:46:53 04:29:07 03:01:53 08:21:41 -17:22
8 Marko Albert EST 00:45:19 04:31:04 03:02:10 08:21:49 00:24
9 Per Bittner GER 00:49:41 04:27:31 03:04:42 08:25:17 -07:13
10 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:49:47 04:33:42 02:59:40 08:26:41 03:20
11 Jan Raphael GER 00:46:49 04:30:13 03:05:55 08:27:03 03:10
12 Casey Munro AUS 00:46:58 04:29:23 03:14:21 08:34:54 04:19
13 Simon Billeau FRA 00:55:23 04:28:37 03:11:03 08:38:28 -05:26
14 Brendan Naef CAN 00:57:42 04:41:12 03:05:42 08:49:34 -33:29
15 Luke Bell AUS 00:45:32 04:20:23 04:16:36 09:26:07 54:12
16 Lachlan Kerin AUS 00:49:38 04:46:29 03:45:14 09:26:07 n/a
17 Dan McGuigan AUS 01:01:25 04:42:44 03:52:51 09:42:07 n/a
Todd Skipworth AUS 00:45:20 04:31:11 DNF
Peter Robertson AUS 00:46:55 04:30:37 DNF
Joshua Rix AUS 00:50:21 04:45:46 DNF

Female Race Results

As for the men, there were two leaders on the female side as well: Caroline Steffen quickly caught up to the fastest swimmer, IM rookie Annabel Luxford. These two couldn’t build a big lead though, and Mel Hauschildt and Yvonne Van Vlerken followed them within four minutes onto the run course:

Mel

It wasn’t a big surprise that Mel would be the strongest runner of these four – she took the lead at about the half marathon mark. But she was struggling with blisters, stopped to apply Vaseline („that didn’t help at all“) and fought her way to the finish line to win in 8:52. Behind her, Caroline Steffen was feeling the effects of her food poisoning from two weeks ago and was slowing down. This allowed Yvonne Van Vlerken to overtake Caroline in the finish chute to take second place. Caroline stumbled over the finish line, was quickly taken to medical and couldn’t attend the podium ceremony.

Asa Lundstroem was solid all day and finished fourth, while Beth Gerdes continues her string of amazing improvements (first sub-5 bike and again fastest run) in fifth place. In sixth and seventh place rookie Annabel Luxford crossed the line with her good friend Mirinda Carfrae (who safely validated her Kona slot while not taking any risks after catching the flu earlier in race week).

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:54:44 04:48:01 03:06:32 08:52:51 -33:20
2 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:59:52 04:44:28 03:10:54 08:58:58 -00:49
3 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:52:43 04:45:38 03:16:40 08:59:08 03:01
4 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:00:20 04:48:10 03:10:37 09:02:49 -18:07
5 Beth Gerdes USA 01:00:22 04:55:13 03:05:56 09:05:08 -26:20
6 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:51:21 04:47:12 03:26:07 09:08:35 n/a
7 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:54:44 05:00:58 03:08:39 09:08:39 19:06
8 Ashley Clifford USA 00:54:48 05:04:59 03:15:21 09:19:00 -08:08
9 Emma Pooley GBR 01:08:45 04:44:33 03:21:47 09:20:29 00:40
10 Bree Wee USA 00:52:43 05:00:06 03:24:43 09:21:56 -05:43
11 Mareen Hufe GER 01:00:23 04:48:08 03:32:16 09:24:33 02:25
12 Kym Coogan AUS 00:54:38 05:10:55 03:31:28 09:40:29 05:02
13 Kristy Hallett AUS 01:00:34 05:08:39 03:37:15 09:51:00 -18:50
14 Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:03:34 04:57:20 03:48:46 09:54:18 n/a
15 Jessica Mitchell AUS 01:00:27 05:19:00 03:52:30 10:22:07 n/a
Laura Bennett USA 00:53:02 DNF
Natasha Van der Merwe USA 01:00:26 DNF
Stephanie Jones USA 01:00:30 DNF

Announcing the 2015 KPR Observer

The Pro qualifying for Kona 2015 is getting into its final, decisive weeks. To learn more about how the KPR works, check out the short video below on the KPR. To follow the KPR and the athletes qualifying for Kona at the end of the qualifying cycle, you purchase the KPR Observer for the reduced end-of-season price of 19$ at https://gum.co/2015KPR.


The Kona Pro Ranking (or KPR for short) is the system used to determine which Professional triathletes qualify for the Ironman World Championships in Kona.

2015Title Thumb

My 2015 KPR Observer makes understanding and following the KPR rankings easy. It consists of an Initial Information Package about the KPR and ongoing updates via EMail during the season.

Here’s a ten minute video with an overview of the KPR and the information you’ll receive in the KPR Observer:

The Initial Information Package(delivered at the time of purchase) contains:

  • a description of how the KPR works in qualifying Pros for Kona
  • base predictions of the men’s and women’s cutoff
  • graphs and descriptions of the current KPR standings

During the season, there will be at least six EMail Updates (and probably ten) about the KPR Standings, who is already in, who is close to qualifying, how many slots are still open and updated estimates of where the cutoffs will occur. (Some more details can be found in the post on “KPR Observer Preview“.)

If you want to qualify as a Pro, coach a Pro athlete, write about professional Ironman racing or are otherwise interested in the KPR, this is must-read information and will help you gain a much deeper insight into the KPR at a fraction of the time if you had to do it yourself!

You can order the 2015 KPR Observer at https://gum.co/2015KPR (or click on the picture above) for 29$.

Side Effects

In my day job as an IT consultant and programmer, one of the tricky things that we are dealing with is side effects – making a change on one side that has some unforeseen consequence at another point. Thinking through potential side effects is an important part of implementing changes. Another example of side effects is in medicine, where the intended effects of a drug have to be weighed against other, possibly adverse effects.

Side EffectsWhen discussing the inequality of Kona slots (50 for the men, 35 for the women), one also has to think of effects beyond the simple difference of slots. Most everyone comes up with the immediate consequence that women require more points than the men – in 2014 it was roughly 4.900 vs. 3.500 points that were required for a July slot, and of course that also required more racing by female Kona athletes than for the male Kona qualifiers.

However, there is another side effect of the inequality: It pushes female Pros into the bigger point races. Basically, it doesn’t make sense for most athletes that want to make it to Kona to race in a P-2000 race: Even winning two of these won’t be enough for a Kona slot. (The exception would be those athletes that already have a good chunk of points, e.g. after finishing well in Kona or from 70.3 champs. For example, Meredith Kessler raced and won Ironman Arizona in November and Ironman New Zealand in March – a strategy that only made sense because she had 2.185 points from 70.3 champs and another 1.500 from 70.3 Auckland).

You can see this push into bigger races on two sides:

  • Most P-2000 races will have a relatively small female field. For example, IM New Zealand only had seven females on the start line, even though it paid ten deep.
  • The Regional Championships will have stronger female fields. For example, Melbourne and South Africa have almost the same number of male and female starters (Melbourne: 21m/19f, South Africa: 48m/32f)

This means that neither the distribution in New Zealand nor in Melbourne should be considered the norm. Field sizes are not determined solely by the different numbers of Pros overall, but are also heavily influenced by the different roles that the races play in athlete’s plans to qualify for Kona.

In addition, I would suggest to consider the side effects that an overall reduction of Kona athletes (even with an equal slot distribution) would have: Limiting the field size to 30 male and 30 female athletes (as has been suggested) would push the required number of points to around 5.000 and also force the male athletes to race more. A lot of athletes won’t be able to race Kona to their full potential as they will still be tired from qualifying. This can’t be in everyone’s interest so a reduction in the number of slots would also require changes to the KPR system if we want to have a great Kona race. Unless we have some good suggestions on how to achieve that, I don’t like the idea of reducing slots. But I don’t like unequal slots either, and that has already been discussed for a long time without seeing any change …

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