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KPR after Brazil (Women) – Who’s in, who’s close, who needs more points

We’re getting closer to the first cutoff for Kona qualification, so I think this is a good time to have a closer look at the KPR standings. This is the first of two posts. This one looks at the women, the next one will look at the men. (I’ll probably post that one tomorrow.)

The exact number of points that is required for a Kona slot is not easy to determine as there are 27 slots at the end of July and another 8 slots at the end of August. (This number has changed in the 2013 season which makes quoting a number even trickier.) In my 2012 Rating Report (available from the sidebar on the right) I have determined that 4.750 points can be considered a safe number for qualification.

Who’s in

Athletes who have won Kona in the last five years just have to race another Ironman to qualify. With Chrissie retired, the other two winners have already validated their slots:

  • Leanda Cave (11.290 points)
  • Mirinda Carfrae (6.320 points)
The other “automatic qualifiers” would be the 70.3 champion (also Leanda) and the 5150 champion (Lisa Norden, who doesn’t appear to be interested in validating her slot).

As noted above, I consider athletes with at least 4.750 points as safe qualifiers. There are quite a few established athletes who took care of their Kona slots early in the qualifying period:

  • Carolin Steffen (9.720 points)
  • Meredith Kessler (7.540 points)
  • Gina Crawford (7.260 points)
  • Sonja Tajsich (7.065 points)
  • Mary Beth Ellis (7.000 points)
  • Natasche Badmann (6.460 points)
  • Michelle Vesterby (5.910 points)
  • Linsey Corbin (5.665 points)
  • Amanda Stevens (5.465 points)
  • Rachel Joyce (5.190 points)

We also have some athletes who haven’t raced Kona 2012 that have a safe spot:

  • Yvonne van Vlercken (6.165 points)
  • Corinne Abraham (6.010 points)
  • Jessie Donavan (5.450 points)

Who’s close to qualifying

This category includes athletes that should already have enough points but are missing a validation race:
  • Heather Wurtele (5.100 points – plans to race Coeur d’Alene in June)
  • Kelly Williamson (5.100 points – doesn’t have any Ironman plans for this year)

Another group of Kona 2012 athletes is close to my cutoff and should be able to make it with a few more points from 70.3 races:

  • Amy Marsh (4.510 points – struggled a bit in Texas, but validated; now she just needs a few hundred points from another 70.3)
  • Rebekah Keat (4.160 points – already validated and can add two more 70.3 results)
There are also some athletes that haven’t qualified for Kona 2012 who are close to qualifying but aren’t quite in “safe territory”:
  • Britta Martin (4.350 points)
  • Rebecca Hoschke (4.150 points)
  • Jodie Swallow (3.650 points)
  • Ashley Clifford (3.510 points)

Who needs more points

At this “early” point in the season, a lot of established athletes haven’t yet raced their “main” qualifying race. (The Northern hemisphere season is just getting started.) From the Kona Top10, only one athlete hasn’t been mentioned yet:

  • Caitlin Snow (3.480 points – was injured and had to skip IM Texas, but is now looking forward to race Couer d’Alene)

In addition, here are some Kona 2012 athletes that have already raced an Ironman and validated, but still need quite a few more points:

  • Mareen Hufe (3.200 points – already has three IMs in points – plans to race Frankfurt)
  • Kristin Möller (1.800 points – even after winning Lanzarote, she has to do a “big points race” to make it to Kona – probably racing Frankfurt)

IM Brazil 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

With both the male and the female winner setting new course records, it’s easy to guess that the conditions must have been great. In fact, the conditions were good, but not exceptional for Brazil: The adjustment for this year was +18:50 leading to a new course rating of 16:31. As is typical for Brazil, the bike was pretty quick (+15:39 at a bike rating of 11:40), but this year also the run was fast (+6:21 at a run rating of 1:43). I’m not sure why this was the case, maybe it wasn’t quite as hot as it normally is.

Male Race Results

The male race saw the first IM win of Timothy O’Donnell. TO almost lead wire to wire. He was close to the front after the swim, then he quickly took control of the race by posting the fastest bike split and building a 10+ minutes lead into T2. He then proceeded to also post the fastest run split and ended up winning by 18 minutes.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:44:24 04:22:23 02:50:18 08:01:32 08:20:53
2 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:46:20 04:33:47 02:54:17 08:19:40 08:25:36
3 Stefan Schmid GER 00:50:53 04:32:44 02:56:04 08:25:02 08:30:19
4 Mario De Elias ARG 00:48:45 04:38:41 02:59:03 08:31:59 08:47:47
5 Santiago Alves Ascengo BRA 00:48:17 04:35:08 03:04:13 08:32:20 n/a
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:51:46 04:40:42 02:54:13 08:32:22 08:36:02
7 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:46:28 04:46:22 02:58:06 08:37:54 08:48:27
8 Blake Becker USA 00:48:49 04:38:50 03:06:18 08:38:47 09:23:07
9 Ciro Violin BRA 00:48:38 04:37:59 03:09:05 08:41:34 08:48:44
10 Luiz Francisco de Paiva Ferreira BRA 00:44:19 04:45:36 03:09:46 08:45:59 n/a
11 Lucas Cocha ARG 00:46:25 04:41:06 03:15:03 08:47:34 09:04:21
12 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:46:34 04:57:45 03:00:19 08:51:05 08:33:52
13 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:46:32 04:40:47 03:21:47 08:54:55 08:42:11
14 Eduardo Sturla ARG 00:49:03 04:38:36 03:23:09 08:55:46 08:26:05
15 Keegan Williams NZL 00:48:49 04:38:35 03:24:36 08:57:42 08:38:57
16 Christian Carletto ARG 00:51:26 04:45:27 03:31:42 09:14:36 09:31:16
17 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:51:00 04:49:22 03:34:09 09:23:32 n/a
18 Benjamin Munizaga CHI 00:48:54 04:49:36 03:44:02 09:30:05 n/a
19 Ricardo Ramirez BRA 00:57:37 05:01:30 03:23:10 09:32:17 n/a
20 Jose Valero ESP 01:01:14 04:56:29 03:26:07 09:32:34 n/a
21 Frank Silvestrin BRA 00:48:09 04:50:41 04:21:32 10:05:48 08:46:12
22 Marcio Roniak BRA 01:08:43 05:37:15 04:14:47 11:16:32 11:11:42
23 Mauricio Eduardo Beinat 01:03:46 05:23:53 05:08:17 11:42:40 n/a

Female Race Results

On the female side, Amanda Stevens is probably okay with not being first out of the water but then winning overall. Haley Chura beat her out of the water by more than two minutes, but while I expected her to hold on to her lead, she quickly fell back. (Her bike time was about six minutes slower than expected.) Instead Amanda took the lead with a fantastic bike time – she was about 15 minutes faster than expected and posted the second fastest bike split. She held on to the lead with a 3:20 marathon – the better runners Sara Gross and Jessie Donovan ran well, but were already too far back after the bike to close the gap to Amanda:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Amanda Stevens USA 00:48:44 04:51:29 03:20:05 09:05:53 09:24:06
2 Sara Gross CAN 00:52:30 05:01:27 03:09:44 09:08:38 09:31:14
3 Jessie Donavan USA 00:59:49 04:50:29 03:15:07 09:10:29 09:16:51
4 Mirjam Weerd NLD 00:51:25 04:56:28 03:25:05 09:21:04 09:19:02
5 Haley Chura USA 00:46:21 05:05:52 03:26:25 09:24:43 09:19:39
6 Ariane Monticeli BRA 00:56:56 05:06:23 03:17:50 09:26:47 09:54:36
7 Anne Basso FRA 00:56:23 05:02:34 03:21:26 09:27:07 09:54:28
8 Hillary Biscay USA 00:50:54 05:02:38 03:28:18 09:29:35 09:50:12
9 Silvia Felt GER 00:57:58 04:48:10 03:48:52 09:40:03 09:29:21
10 Mariana Andrade BRA 00:58:52 05:00:17 03:45:35 09:49:25 10:26:27
11 Jacqui Gordon USA 00:56:21 05:08:53 03:31:29 09:52:37 09:50:20
12 Nina Pekerman ISR 00:55:28 05:09:27 03:33:25 09:55:03 09:45:29
13 Jana Candrova CZE 01:01:00 05:17:31 03:34:48 09:59:55 10:00:22
14 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 00:53:33 05:06:03 03:57:20 10:02:23 09:58:20
15 Alessandra Carvalho BRA 01:02:11 05:33:50 03:34:46 10:18:08 10:27:58
16 Fernanda Garcia BRA 00:54:33 05:41:31 03:50:31 10:37:03 n/a
17 Arrate Gonzalez ESP 01:05:00 05:46:10 03:46:10 10:45:11 n/a
18 Gisele Bertucci BRA 00:52:39 05:34:20 04:25:34 11:02:49 n/a

IM Brazil 2013 – How the race might unfold

Here’s another post of my of “How the race might unfold” series. It is the graphical version of my prediction that takes each athletes strengths and weaknesses into account. The graphs show who is in the lead (starting with “after swim”) and by how much the other athletes are behind as the race unfolds. I hope that this gives you a good indication of the names that will show up near the front over the day.

Men

Men2013

There are a lot of interesting participants in the men’s field:

  • After the swim, I expect Igor Amorelli to be in the lead, but he will quickly fall behind on the bike.
  • The strong swim/bikers Luke McKenzie and Tim O’Donnell will take over. Nominally Luke is the stronger biker, but they will come out of the swim together, and they’ll probably stick together on the bike. They should be able to build about a 10 minute lead on the rest of the field.
  • That will probably not be enough to hold off the strongest runner Victor Del Corral. He should take the lead by the half-marathon mark and then win by about 7 minutes in front of “TO”.
  • Behind these two, there is a group of four athletes in the fight for the last podium spot – Luke, Santiago Ascenco, Igor Amorelli and veteran Eduardo Sturla. Their projected difference is less than two minutes, so anything can happen on race day.

Women

Women2013

The women’s race promises to be quite exciting as well, at least towards the end:

  • Haley Chura could be the first women in ages who beats Amanda Stevens on the swim.
  • Haley should be able to continue to lead after the bike. Dede Griesbauer and Hillary Biscay are also strong swimmers, but they probably can’t stay close to the front. (Hillary is not a strong enough biker, and Dede hasn’t really had a good race after her injuries from IM Germany in 2011.)
  • The real story will be how much of a gap Haley will be ably to hold in front of the contenders Mirjam Weerd (6 minutes behind after the swim, probably 4 after the bike) and especially Jessie Donavan (21 minutes after the swim, closing the gap to about 16 minutes after the bike).
  • The way I see it, these three ladies will be in a fight for the win almost to the end of the run. After 31k they should be with 2 minutes of each other, so the strongest at the end should win the race. Very tough to make a prediction who will come out on top – but I’d put my money on the strongest runner (that would be Jessie who has already won IM South Africa with a come-from-behind strategy).
  • Vanessa Gianinni and Amanda Stevens are projected to be only 5 to 7 minutes back, so on a good day they might be able to close the gap to the front and stir things up.

IM Texas 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The conditions were pretty typical for Texas: A relatively slow swim (probably no wetsuits allowed?), a fast bike (adjustment of 13:04), and a pretty normal run, leading to an overall adjustment of 8:06 and a new course rating of 8:57.

Male Race Results

Of my pre race favorites, Matthias Hecht DNF’d (after leading again after the bike) and Jan Raphael never seemed to find his run legs. It came down to the two others I mentioned: James Cunnama and Paul Amey, and “Amos” had the upper hand with the fastest (and only sub 3h) run. Hats off to #3 and #4: Ian Mikelson and Justin Daerr ran through the field – I didn’t have them that far in the front of the field.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Paul Amey GBR 00:54:54 04:29:07 02:56:18 08:25:06 08:34:39
2 James Cunnama ZAF 00:50:17 04:32:55 03:00:25 08:27:35 08:30:45
3 Ian Mikelson USA 00:51:55 04:32:01 03:01:59 08:30:06 08:53:01
4 Justin Daerr USA 00:54:35 04:29:30 03:02:04 08:30:35 08:41:29
5 Swen Sundberg GER 00:54:12 04:29:56 03:08:22 08:37:30 08:48:43
6 Jan Raphael GER 00:50:17 04:33:34 03:13:25 08:42:34 08:26:41
7 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:49:21 04:38:54 03:10:45 08:44:01 08:54:24
8 AJ Baucco USA 00:54:41 04:37:34 03:16:22 08:53:37 n/a
9 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:04:22 04:33:37 03:10:37 08:56:06 08:56:33
10 Andres Castillo COL 00:49:14 04:34:45 03:33:17 09:02:04 08:54:17
11 Dominik Berger AUT 00:50:17 04:34:37 03:37:04 09:07:31 08:55:24
12 Pedro Gomes POR 00:53:58 04:30:11 03:39:33 09:08:07 08:36:41
13 Christian Brader GER 00:59:02 04:45:20 03:24:03 09:13:21 08:52:56
14 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:52:02 04:51:10 03:35:44 09:26:09 09:56:05
15 Patrick Schuster USA 01:11:00 04:39:39 03:35:39 09:32:11 n/a
16 Andrew Hodges USA 00:51:52 05:06:39 03:29:26 09:33:42 10:21:13
17 James Lamastra USA 00:53:23 04:40:11 04:14:51 09:55:48 n/a
18 Patrick Wheeler USA 00:58:51 05:06:17 04:34:30 10:47:22 n/a
19 Brendan Naef CAN 00:59:09 04:55:13 05:34:19 11:34:42 n/a

Female Race Results

On the women’s side, Amy Marsh had to let Joycee go on the bike and struggled on the run (but still finished 6th to validate her Kona slot). With Amy out of the picture, it was clear that Rachel was going to be the winner. In this “no pressure situation”, she still delivered a fantastic run and beat the old course record by five minutes. It wasn’t a surprise that the rest of the podium would be US girls, but I don’t think that too many people had Jennie Hansen on her list of potential #2 finisher. (I didn’t either.) Again, this goes to show that a strong run such as hers (and by #4, Ashley Clifford) is very important for a good IM result and you can place well even with a “weaker” leg (the swim for Jennie, and the bike for Ashley).

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:54:02 04:42:29 03:07:27 08:49:14 09:10:50
2 Jennie Hansen USA 01:07:22 05:01:06 03:10:51 09:25:35 09:38:52
3 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:04:16 05:03:42 03:19:15 09:33:01 09:33:42
4 Ashley Clifford USA 00:54:32 05:26:36 03:10:39 09:36:51 09:30:12
5 Christine Anderson USA 00:57:27 05:09:19 03:32:51 09:44:51 09:44:54
6 Amy Marsh USA 00:54:06 04:48:56 04:07:05 09:55:49 09:18:46
7 April Gellatly USA 00:59:01 05:22:36 03:34:11 10:01:54 10:00:53
8 Sarah Hankla USA 00:58:08 05:20:58 03:38:51 10:04:41 n/a
9 Olesya Prystayko UKR 01:01:26 05:12:14 03:48:16 10:08:49 n/a
10 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 01:15:31 05:22:46 03:40:42 10:27:58 10:46:28
11 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 01:08:25 05:11:20 04:31:23 10:57:43 10:07:58

IM Lanzarote 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, Lanzarote was a very slow course with an adjustment of -17:56, mainly because of the brutal bike course (adjustment of -20:10). The new course rating is -11:17.

Male Race Results

With a few DNFs, both the winner Faris Al-Sultan and the following athletes were not much of a surprise:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Faris Al-Sultan GER 00:47:48 04:53:03 02:55:03 08:42:40 08:40:34
2 Miquel Blanchart ESP 00:47:55 05:04:03 02:54:20 08:52:08 08:58:58
3 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:51:42 05:06:34 02:58:58 09:04:09 09:03:19
4 Philip Graves GBR 00:47:50 05:02:35 03:07:24 09:04:17 09:13:10
5 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:50:25 05:19:09 02:50:52 09:06:48 09:06:04
6 Michael Wetzel GER 00:53:46 05:15:15 03:04:02 09:19:16 09:27:34
7 Xavier Diepart BEL 00:56:21 05:20:04 02:58:37 09:21:59 09:28:42
8 Alvaro Velazquez ESP 00:55:56 05:16:45 03:11:07 09:31:13 09:21:06
9 Andreas Wolpert GER 00:57:18 05:17:48 03:10:52 09:33:27 09:30:42
10 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:47:45 05:18:58 03:47:40 10:00:31 09:09:03
11 Stefano Paoli ITA 00:53:59 05:20:58 03:48:17 10:10:42 10:08:35
12 Martin Cain GBR 00:59:13 05:52:06 03:15:18 10:16:39 10:00:42
13 David Vazquez ESP 01:04:49 06:39:08 05:31:40 13:24:52 n/a

Female Race Results

On the female side, we also saw a convincing lead by the pre-race favorite Kristin Moeller. She posted the fastest bike (easily overcoming her swim deficit) and was leading into T2, then she also put out a sub-3h marathon:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Kristin Moeller GER 01:00:03 05:31:47 02:58:37 09:37:34 10:03:00
2 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 01:05:41 05:39:08 03:17:28 10:09:31 10:07:04
3 Saleta Castro ESP 00:54:46 05:55:26 03:16:37 10:14:27 10:48:35
4 Joyce Wolfe IRL 01:00:23 06:02:54 03:20:24 10:31:45 10:26:59
5 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN 01:02:37 06:18:18 03:29:31 10:59:51 11:30:38
6 Ute Streiter AUT 01:10:01 06:25:26 03:48:58 11:33:35 10:54:06
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