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Ironman Japan 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Similar to last year, IM Japan was pretty slow: An adjustment of -5:35 (mainly because of a slow bike) leads to a new course rating of -10:47. This is reflected in the slow winning times – just under 9 hours for the men and just under 10 hours for them women.

Male Race Results

A solid performance – very close to his expected time – was good enough for my pre-race favorite Michael Ruenz to win the race – his 2:52 marathon was too good for the rest of the field. Harry Wiltshire finally got enough points for a Kona slot with his second place finish. The last spot on the podium went to Cedric Lassonde in his first Ironman.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Michael Rünz GER 00:54:22 05:01:23 02:52:36 08:53:40 00:39
2 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:49:23 05:04:26 03:08:17 09:06:34 -05:36
3 Cedric Lassonde FRA 00:54:24 05:01:00 03:06:40 09:07:44 n/a
4 Brian Fuller AUS 00:53:23 05:01:49 03:12:55 09:13:49 01:02
5 Yu Shinozaki JPN 00:56:54 04:57:09 03:17:04 09:15:35 -33:49
6 Tohara Kaito JAP 00:55:45 05:12:42 03:03:16 09:16:48 -10:42
7 Kuniaki Takahama JPN 00:49:20 05:32:30 02:56:32 09:24:52 -00:40
8 Timothy Beardall AUS 01:05:32 04:40:07 03:46:57 09:38:32 -29:26
9 Jose Jeuland FRA 00:54:18 05:22:03 03:34:37 09:58:25 40:40
10 Masayuki Matsumaru JPN 00:55:48 05:23:51 03:38:14 10:04:10 32:54
11 Tadashi Iida JPN 00:56:52 05:42:56 03:19:53 10:05:49 23:54
12 Jon Woods NZL 00:56:55 05:30:39 03:41:35 10:14:52 22:04
Daiki Masuda JPN 00:54:16 DNF

Female Race Results

On the women’s side, Shiao-yu Li defended her 2013 title while also improving her time by more than 14 minutes. The other spots on the podium went to Jessica Fleming and Keiko Tanaka.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:04:34 05:31:05 03:17:05 09:58:30 -38:55
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:00:19 05:33:54 03:26:32 10:06:49 -03:54
3 Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:56:42 05:44:39 03:22:43 10:09:24 -05:03
4 Emi Sakai JPN 01:06:50 05:43:56 03:42:06 10:39:42 11:23
5 Hiromi Matsumaru JPN 01:07:25 06:00:08 03:41:32 10:54:29 n/a
6 Yoriko Obayashi JPN 00:59:58 06:31:54 03:26:28 11:06:21 n/a
7 Leslie Lamacchia USA 01:05:37 06:23:19 04:40:33 12:16:34 1:26:56
Megumi Shigaki JPN 01:01:51 DNF
Mami Ishii JPN 01:04:35 DNF

KPR Update: August Qualifier

All the qualifying races for Kona 2014 have been run, and we have the final KPR ranking that decides who of the Professional athletes will get a slot. There is still some uncertainty whether all athletes accept their slot, and there may still be some rolldown – both from August athletes and maybe also from July athletes that decide not to race after all.

Women

Most of the slots were already clear after Mont Tremblant (Amber Ferreira, Sara Gross, Melnaie Burke, Beth Shutt). The final slots were decided in Copenhagen (Daniela Ryf, Sofie Goos) and Louisville (Jackie Arendt):

Name Country Points
Ryf, Daniela CHE 7810
Ferreira, Amber USA 7365
Gross, Sara CAN 6620
Burke, Melanie NZL 6190
Shutt, Beth USA 6090
Goos, Sofie BEL 5365
Arendt, Jackie USA 5170

In addition to these seven athletes, Leanda Cave validated her automatic qualifier slot by winning in Sweden.

Mareen Hufe narrowly missed the last slot (by 5 points!), she has to hope for a rolldown:

Name Country Points
Hufe, Mareen DEU 5165
Naeth, Angela CAN 4890
Csomor, Erika HUN 4780

Update Aug 27th: It looks as if all athletes accepted their slots and that there will be no rolldown for the women.

Men

The race for Kona went down to the wire as well, with Harry Wiltshire (2nd in Japan after racing Sweden a week before) and Chris McDonald (winner in Louisville) snatching slots in the last races:

Name Country Points
Bracht, Timo DEU 5410
Halksworth, Daniel GBR 5230
McDonald, Chris USA 5015
Holtham, Elliot CAN 4725
Tollakson, TJ USA 4640
Wiltshire, Harry GBR 4385
Cunningham, Richie AUS 4335
Zyemtsev, Viktor UKR 4280
Robertson, Peter AUS 4215
Brader, Christian DEU 4075
Passuello, Domenico ITA 4075
Daerr, Justin USA 4050
Schildknecht, Ronnie CHE 3915
Raelert, Andreas DEU 3610

Timo Bracht will very likely decline his slot, so Domenico should also make it to Kona.

Update Aug 26th: Domenico Passuello tweeted that he has now been offered a slot. It is unclear who declined a slot, Timo is the obvious guess.

Update Aug 27th: Justin Daerr is now marked as a qualifier as well. This means that both Timo and Victor must have declined their slots.

Update Aug 29th: Ronnie Schildknecht is also marked as a qualifier. At this time, it is not apparent who has declined his slot, all athletes still have their “Q”s. The slot was opened because Dirk Bockel (one of the July qualifiers) declined his slot after all. Dirk had to decline because of a hip injury.

Update Aug 30th: Rolldown has been finalized and the official list was announced. Please refer to my Kona Startlist for the full list and ongoing updates.

Update Aug 31st: Apparently, the WTC press release was not the last word: Cameron Brown decided to decline his slot after all, allowing Andreas Raelert to make it to Kona at the very last minute. (I’ve asked WTC about it, they said that athletes have until Aug 31 – today – to complete registration and there could still be changes.) 

The next athletes have to hope for a rolldown:

Name Country Points
Thomschke, Markus DEU 3460
Ambrose, Paul GBR 3440

Ironman Mont Tremblant 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Mont Tremblant is one of the „middle level“ courses with a race adjustment 7:34, almost the same as the course rating of 8:06. The swim is relatively slow, and the bike and run courses are quite normal. A lot of athletes have indicated that the bike and run course are really hilly, but that is not reflected in the Pro times.

Male Race Results

After a slow start to the year, TJ Tollakson had a great day: After being in the front group on the swim and the first part of the bike, he moved away from the group which then promptly disintegrated. After his 4:26 on the bike there was some speculation that he might have gone too had, but he posted a 2:54 marathon, the second fastest of the day and there was never a moment where he seemed to be in trouble. Andreas Raelert was the only one left in the same ZIP code as TJ on the bike, but he struggled a bit on the run and finished in third behind Daniel Halksworth who methodically worked his way into second place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:43 04:26:55 02:54:21 08:16:17 -21:09
2 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:49:37 04:43:04 02:57:38 08:35:15 -11:25
3 Andreas Raelert GER 00:49:38 04:34:38 03:08:59 08:38:31 14:38
4 Christian Brader GER 00:57:39 04:47:42 02:53:17 08:43:28 -08:03
5 Matthew Russell USA 00:57:42 04:43:35 02:59:23 08:46:03 -00:40
6 Domenico Passuello ITA 00:57:43 04:43:06 03:00:37 08:46:58 01:12
7 Elliot Holtham CAN 00:56:00 04:59:05 03:12:18 09:12:33 29:54
8 Brendan Naef CAN 00:59:23 05:04:29 03:07:17 09:17:24 -19:04
9 Martin Lamontagne Lacasse CAN 00:57:41 05:14:24 03:12:19 09:29:57 -08:12
10 Wolfgang Guembel CAN 00:49:43 05:12:43 03:26:48 09:34:56 31:11
Luke Bell AUS 00:49:30 04:47:35 DNF
Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:49:44 04:50:19 DNF
Bryan Rhodes NZL 00:49:47 09:05:21 DNF
Balazs Csoke HUN 00:49:34 DNF
Mathias Hecht SUI 00:49:41 DNF
Eric Limkemann USA 00:50:50 DNF
Simon Malo CAN 01:03:48 DNF

Female Race Results

The women’s Pro field was very small for a Regional Championship (only 7 starters), but those that started got a lot of KPR points – resulting in four athletes getting a safe Kona slot. After winning IM Lake Placed just three weeks ago, Amber Ferreira as leading the race for a long time. She finished second, with IM Brasil winner Sara Gross taking the win with the best run split. Beth Shutt closed out the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Sara Gross CAN 00:58:42 05:28:14 03:07:33 09:40:26 -01:28
2 Amber Ferreira USA 00:58:40 05:19:58 03:18:33 09:43:46 02:01
3 Beth Shutt USA 01:03:21 05:21:16 03:15:12 09:46:45 -01:06
4 Sarah Graves USA 01:12:24 05:19:50 03:12:41 09:51:59 n/a
5 Melanie Burke NZL 01:06:57 05:17:50 03:23:08 09:54:21 14:04
6 Sharon Gallant CAN 01:05:46 05:53:02 03:46:07 10:52:33 n/a
Tine Deckers BEL 00:59:37 DNF

Ironman Sweden 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, IM Sweden was a quick course. The race adjustment of 20:05 is almost the same as last year (20:09). 

Male Race Results

Horst Reichel won his first Ironman race. After exiting the swim with the lead group, he posted the fastest bike split, and ran a solid 2:51 marathon. Victor Zyemtsev finished second and collected valuable KPR points. Tom Lowe was the fastest athlete on land, but had to make up too much ground after a 57 minute swim to place better than third.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Horst Reichel GER 00:49:24 04:29:38 02:51:09 08:13:01 -29:15
2 Victor Zyemtsev USA 00:49:38 04:42:22 02:44:18 08:19:17 -02:18
3 Tom Lowe GBR 00:57:28 04:29:58 02:48:24 08:19:23 03:17
4 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:55:31 04:35:41 02:55:47 08:30:30 -04:18
5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:49:32 04:41:45 02:58:24 08:32:37 -25:36
6 Simon Jung GER 00:49:34 04:42:01 02:58:22 08:33:09 n/a
7 Jonas Djurback SWE 00:49:33 04:42:23 03:09:33 08:44:08 03:00
8 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:49:31 04:41:58 03:11:59 08:46:57 -12:42
9 Oliver Simon GBR 00:49:22 04:42:10 03:23:51 08:58:56 -10:22
10 Jonas Bergkvist SWE 00:57:20 04:58:54 03:16:56 09:16:36 n/a
11 David Jilek CZE 01:00:26 05:02:43 03:24:10 09:31:45 01:45
12 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:49:26 04:38:10 04:04:06 09:35:31 1:00:55
13 Lukas Polan CZE 01:05:34 04:57:36 03:33:37 09:41:02 22:02
14 Stephan Trettin GER 01:01:22 05:07:02 03:41:08 09:54:08 n/a
15 Luke Dragstra CAN 00:57:34 05:11:23 03:41:24 09:55:22 1:08:57
16 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:10:55 05:41:19 04:19:18 11:18:23 -14:43
  Christophe Bastie FRA 00:55:27 04:31:56   DNF  
  Paul Hawkins GBR 00:49:40     DNF  

Female Race Results

There was no doubt that Leanda Cave was the strongest female in Sweden. She posted the fastest times in all three disciplines and won by more than 30 minutes in front of Erika Csomor and Camilla Lindholm:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Leanda Cave GBR 00:49:39 04:57:21 03:05:26 08:56:50 -10:12
2 Erika Csomor HUN 01:00:41 05:16:56 03:07:40 09:30:04 19:32
3 Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:09:18 05:08:13 03:10:21 09:31:38 -03:05
4 Camilla Larsson SWE 01:15:36 05:03:38 03:26:36 09:50:21 n/a
5 Emma Graaf SWE 01:00:33 05:19:06 03:29:51 09:53:41 -22:16
6 Lena Holmgren SWE 01:04:59 05:28:36 03:21:06 09:59:12 n/a
7 Jacqui Gordon USA 01:01:28 05:16:00 03:38:49 10:01:17 08:58
8 Angela Kuehnlein GER 01:03:31 05:23:45 03:43:09 10:14:11 n/a
  Louise Rundqvist SWE 01:08:11     DNF  

MetaMan Bintan 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Brett Carter (AUS) 08:43:58 Candice Hammond (NZL) 09:31:08
2013 Courtney Ogden (AUS) 08:31:57 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:13:57

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Courtney Ogden AUS 00:50:48 04:36:21 03:02:31 08:31:57
2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:50:45 04:36:07 03:12:59 08:42:12
3 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:54:41 04:45:34 03:11:30 08:53:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:50:52 04:49:38 03:29:39 09:13:57
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:50:54 05:11:52 03:22:45 09:28:17
3 Candice Hammond NZL 01:04:39 05:12:15 03:19:40 09:38:48

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:31:57 Courtney Ogden 2013-08-31
Swim overall 00:48:10 Brett Carter 2012-09-15
Bike overall 04:35:30 Brett Carter 2012-09-15
Run overall 03:01:07 Fredrik Croneborg 2012-09-15
Total female 09:13:57 Caroline Steffen 2013-08-31
Swim female 00:50:52 Caroline Steffen 2013-08-31
Bike female 04:49:38 Caroline Steffen 2013-08-31
Run female 03:19:40 Candice Hammond 2013-08-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for MetaMan is – 08:36.

Race Adjustments for MetaMan

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 -14:55 -02:03 03:17 -10:06 9 -14:55 -02:03 03:17 -10:06
2013 -02:16 -01:17 01:59 -11:28 11 -08:36 -01:40 02:38 -10:47

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:36:23 08:28:18 00:49:44 04:41:17 02:52:47 14
2 Jan Raphael GER 08:46:52 08:38:37 00:48:34 04:44:50 03:00:37 42
3 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:51:36 08:43:16 00:50:15 04:47:51 03:01:08 54
4 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:56:52 08:48:27 00:51:37 04:52:21 02:57:26 69
5 Stefan Schmid GER 08:57:16 08:48:51 00:53:45 04:48:27 03:01:02 71
6 Pedro Gomes POR 09:05:44 08:57:11 00:51:22 04:50:58 03:10:02 114
7 Carl Read NZL 09:08:02 08:59:27 00:53:00 05:00:33 03:02:05 126
8 Benjamin Williams USA 09:17:42 09:08:58 00:53:39 05:03:26 03:00:56 (171)
9 Joseph Spindler GER 09:20:19 09:11:32 01:02:58 04:52:01 03:08:35 183
Niels Brandt-Joergensen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Peter Mauro Aus n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Gina Crawford NZL 09:34:12 09:25:12 00:51:51 05:13:39 03:12:55 10
2 Candice Hammond NZL 09:47:10 09:37:58 01:00:57 05:14:46 03:16:24 35
3 Diana Riesler GER 09:47:15 09:38:03 00:59:13 05:06:33 03:25:23 36
4 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:56:27 09:47:06 00:54:18 05:36:43 03:18:47 (56)
5 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 10:04:20 09:54:52 01:01:50 05:21:22 03:24:26 78
6 Alice Hector GBR 10:50:23 10:40:12 00:54:36 05:46:29 03:39:35 (151)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Cameron Brown: 41% (1-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 29% (2-1)
  • Jan Raphael: 14% (6-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 7% (14-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 6% (15-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 2% (62-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Gina Crawford: 63% (1-1)
  • Candice Hammond: 17% (5-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 13% (6-1)
  • Michelle Gailey: 4% (26-1)
  • Rebecca Hoschke: 2% (48-1)
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