Here’s another post of my of “How the race might unfold” series. It is the graphical version of my prediction that takes each athletes strengths and weaknesses into account. The graphs show who is in the lead (starting with “after swim”) and by how much the other athletes are behind as the race unfolds. I hope that this gives you a good indication of the names that will show up near the front over the day.
There are a lot of interesting participants in the men’s field:
- After the swim, I expect Igor Amorelli to be in the lead, but he will quickly fall behind on the bike.
- The strong swim/bikers Luke McKenzie and Tim O’Donnell will take over. Nominally Luke is the stronger biker, but they will come out of the swim together, and they’ll probably stick together on the bike. They should be able to build about a 10 minute lead on the rest of the field.
- That will probably not be enough to hold off the strongest runner Victor Del Corral. He should take the lead by the half-marathon mark and then win by about 7 minutes in front of “TO”.
- Behind these two, there is a group of four athletes in the fight for the last podium spot – Luke, Santiago Ascenco, Igor Amorelli and veteran Eduardo Sturla. Their projected difference is less than two minutes, so anything can happen on race day.
The women’s race promises to be quite exciting as well, at least towards the end:
- Haley Chura could be the first women in ages who beats Amanda Stevens on the swim.
- Haley should be able to continue to lead after the bike. Dede Griesbauer and Hillary Biscay are also strong swimmers, but they probably can’t stay close to the front. (Hillary is not a strong enough biker, and Dede hasn’t really had a good race after her injuries from IM Germany in 2011.)
- The real story will be how much of a gap Haley will be ably to hold in front of the contenders Mirjam Weerd (6 minutes behind after the swim, probably 4 after the bike) and especially Jessie Donavan (21 minutes after the swim, closing the gap to about 16 minutes after the bike).
- The way I see it, these three ladies will be in a fight for the win almost to the end of the run. After 31k they should be with 2 minutes of each other, so the strongest at the end should win the race. Very tough to make a prediction who will come out on top – but I’d put my money on the strongest runner (that would be Jessie who has already won IM South Africa with a come-from-behind strategy).
- Vanessa Gianinni and Amanda Stevens are projected to be only 5 to 7 minutes back, so on a good day they might be able to close the gap to the front and stir things up.