IM Lanzarote 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

May 13, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Lanzarote is one of the classic IM races – similar to Kona as it is held on a volcanic island with often very hard conditions. It has a course rating of –3:05, meaning it is a bit slower than IM Hawaii. Last year’s winners were Timo Bracht (in a course record of 8:30:34) and Rachel Joyce (9:28:12 – not sure if this is the female course record, my results only go back to 2005 and this is the fastest time I have).

Male Participants

There is no rockstar name on the list, but a few second-tier athletes will look for a prestigious IM win:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:50:10 08:47:10 69
2 Esben Hovgaard DNK 08:51:34 08:48:33 83
3 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:53:31 08:50:30 90
4 Bert Jammaer BEL 09:00:25 08:57:21 118
5 Philip Graves GBR 09:00:32 08:57:28 120
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:00:35 08:57:31 121
7 Simon Billeau FRA 09:04:23 09:01:18 145
8 Patrick Jaberg SWI 09:05:49 09:02:43 151
9 Domenico Passuello ITA 09:08:11 09:05:05 162
10 Sergio Marques PRT 09:09:02 09:05:55 169
11 Alvaro Velazquez ESP 09:19:59 09:16:49 245
12 Ueli Bieler SUI 09:24:56 09:21:44 296
13 Xavier Diepart BEL 09:27:04 09:23:51 307
14 Nicholas Peter Munoz ESP 09:27:11 09:23:58 308
15 Oliver Simon GBR 09:34:02 09:30:47 365
16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:47:21 09:44:01 449
17 Fernando Cuenllas ESP 09:58:04 09:54:41 525
18 Victor Del Corral ESP n/a unrated n/a
19 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA n/a unrated n/a
20 Bryan Mccrystal IRE n/a unrated n/a
21 Till Schramm GER n/a unrated n/a
22 David Vazquez ESP n/a unrated n/a
23 Antonio Cardona ESP n/a unrated n/a
24 Remy Vasseur NED n/a unrated n/a
25 Daniel Halksworth GBR n/a unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds:

  • Bert Jammaer: 30%
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 18%
  • Stephen Bayliss: 18%
  • Philip Graves: 11%
  • Petr Vabrousek: 9%

Kirill Kotshegarov may be the best ranked athlete, but he doesn’t have the experience of a Bert Jammaer or a Stephen Bayliss that might be necessary for winning on such a tough course. Philip Graves comes back to IM racing after a two season hiatus – and if these athletes run into issues, “I hate to train so I just race” Petr Vabrousek will be there with a solid result. He has raced more than 50 IMs, but I don’t know if he has ever won one (I don’t have one in my results). Maybe this year in Lanzarote?

For a while it looked as if Andi Böcherer would be a late addition to the race after his DNF in South Africa. He tweeted that he would start, but then decided to take some more time to recover properly.

Female Participants

On the female side, there are also no rockstars, but quite a few solid racers:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:30:26 09:27:12 10
2 Bella Bayliss GBR 09:44:56 09:41:37 39
3 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 09:51:33 09:48:12 55
4 Nicole Woysch GER 10:22:30 10:18:58 153
5 Katya Meyers USA 10:24:05 10:20:33 160
6 Christine Hemphill AUS 10:30:53 10:27:19 181
7 Ute Streiter AUT 10:35:58 10:32:22 191
8 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN 11:09:32 11:05:44 248
9 Tine Holst DEN n/a unrated n/a
10 Carla Van Rooijen NED n/a unrated n/a
11 Saleta Castro ESP n/a unrated n/a
12 Melina de Monserratt PRU n/a unrated n/a
13 Christine Waitz GER n/a unrated n/a

The winning odds show a picture that is a bit different:

  • Heleen Bij De Vaate: 32%
  • Michelle Vesterby: 29%
  • Bella Bayliss: 27%

Three potential winners, each with a different background: Michelle Vesterby has not yet raced a lot (but managed to post a few fast times), Heleen Bij de Vaate is a very solid racer (even if she doesn’t yet have the speed to win Kona) and Bella Bayliss coming back after having a baby,

IM Texas 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

May 11, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Last year was the first time IM Texas was held. The course rating is 5:47 – comparable to South Africa or New Zealand. The premier winner on the men’s side was Eneko Llanos in 8:08:20 (followed by Tim O’Donnell and Luke Bell) and on the women’s side Catriona Morrison in 8:57:51.

Male Participants

As last year (when it was the US Championships and a 400 points race), IM Texas managed to draw a pretty strong field (even if it “only” a 2000 points race):

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Rasmus Henning DNK 08:22:30 08:27:56 10
2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:25:23 08:30:51 14
3 Paul Amey GBR 08:28:28 08:33:58 20
4 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:29:13 08:34:44 24
5 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:36:12 08:41:47 40
6 Torsten Abel GER 08:39:47 08:45:24 57
7 Jozsef Major HUN 08:42:40 08:48:19 80
8 Justin Daerr USA 08:45:54 08:51:35 93
9 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:53:14 08:59:00 129
10 Christian Brader GER 08:55:29 09:01:17 146
11 Matthew Russell USA 09:01:22 09:07:13 175
12 Brandon Marsh USA 09:02:20 09:08:12 183
13 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:02:26 09:08:18 185
14 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:08:47 09:14:43 228
15 Erich Kunz SUI 09:11:52 09:17:50 259
16 Scott Defilippis USA 09:17:51 09:23:53 308
17 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:18:22 09:24:24 313
18 Olly Piggin CAN 09:19:17 09:25:20 316
19 Anthony Toth CAN 09:24:31 09:30:38 361
20 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:27:47 09:33:56 381
21 Mac Brown USA 09:38:31 09:44:47 457
22 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:07:21 10:13:55 647
23 Jim Lamastra n/a unrated n/a
24 Robert Wade n/a unrated n/a
25 Benoit Bourguet n/a unrated n/a
26 Jonathan Shearon n/a unrated n/a
27 Alex Weber n/a unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds:

  • Jordan Rapp: 33%
  • Paul Amey: 26%
  • Rasmus Henning: 23%
  • Maxim Kriat: 6%
  • Mathias Hecht: 6%

Rasmus Henning is the top rated athlete, but he has had some weaker results on the IM distance (especially in Hawaii) which hurt his winning odds. However, he seems to have figured out some of the issues that were plaguing him, as evidenced by his win in Abu Dhabi. Still, I would consider Jordan Rapp as the favorite for the race. He has recovered well from his horrendous bike accident as has shown great form in Wildflower. Paul Amey will be able to show that his strong IM Arizona (when he pushed Eneko Llanos to the finish and nearly managed to go sub-8) was not a fluke. Maxim Kriat is another interesting athlete with a lot of potential. He comes from a short-course background and did IM Floria in 2009 and 2011, both times finishing second. Then there is Mathias Hecht, the winner of St. George in 2011. Lots of potential winners!

Female Participants

On the women’s side, the field mostly comes from the USA:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:15:28 09:21:29 7
2 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:20:26 09:26:30 10
3 Amy Marsh USA 09:24:46 09:30:53 20
4 Caitlin Snow USA 09:32:12 09:38:23 35
5 Corinne Abraham USA 09:43:36 09:49:55 59
6 Caroline Gregory USA 10:01:51 10:08:22 115
7 Charisa Wernick USA 10:05:46 10:12:19 133
8 Sarah Piampiano 10:06:25 10:12:59 135
9 Marilyn McDonald CAN 10:14:07 10:20:46 163
10 Cindy Lewis 10:20:53 10:27:36 182
11 Tami Ritchie 10:34:55 10:41:47 211
12 Amanda McKenzie USA 10:52:52 10:59:56 242
13 Sandra Soldan n/a unrated n/a
14 Jackie Pearce n/a unrated n/a

The winning odds for the females look as follows:

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 40%
  • Amy Marsh: 27%
  • Caitlin Snow: 18%
  • Kathleen Calkins: 11%

Mary Beth Ellis is the clear favorite – after winning three Ironman races last summer to qualify for Kona, she hopefully manages to qualify in fewer races this year so she can properly prepare for Kona. Amy Marsh also has three Ironman wins to her name , while Caitlin Snow will look to win her first one. Kathleen Calkins is a name that most people will not be familiar with – she only has one Ironman pro result (a 7th place in IM Arizona 2011 in 9:12), but she has a lot of experience racing as an age grouper and winning the F30-34 age group in Hawaii.

Corrections:

  • Amy pointed out on Twitter she has four IM wins – I missed IM China which I don’t have in my results.
  • As Cait pointed out on twitter, she has won an Ironman before: She won IM Lake Placid under her maiden name of “Shea-Kenney”. I have now connected these two “dots” in my data, but it doesn’t really change my predictions.

Thanks to Amy and Cait for pointing out these errors – and sorry for missing your wins.

IM Lanzarote 2012 – Predictions (Detail Post)

May 11, 2012 by · 1 Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:49:58 08:46:57 67
2 Esben Hovgaard DNK 08:51:19 08:48:18 79
3 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:53:31 08:50:29 90
4 Philip Graves GBR 09:00:24 08:57:20 118
5 Bert Jammaer BEL 09:00:25 08:57:21 119
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:00:32 08:57:28 120
7 Simon Billeau FRA 09:04:15 09:01:10 145
8 Patrick Jaberg 09:05:49 09:02:43 151
9 Domenico Passuello ITA 09:08:14 09:05:07 162
10 Sergio Marques PRT 09:08:57 09:05:50 169
11 Alvaro Velazquez 09:20:03 09:16:52 245
12 Ueli Bieler SUI 09:24:54 09:21:42 296
13 Xavier Diepart BEL 09:27:02 09:23:49 307
14 Nicholas Peter Munoz ESP 09:27:08 09:23:55 309
15 Oliver Simon 09:34:07 09:30:51 366
16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:47:20 09:44:00 449
17 Fernando Cuenllas 09:58:05 09:54:41 525
18 Victor Del Corral n/a unrated n/a
19 Ludovic Le Guellec n/a unrated n/a
20 Bryan Mccrystal n/a unrated n/a
21 Till Schramm n/a unrated n/a
22 David Vazquez n/a unrated n/a
23 Remy Vasseur n/a unrated n/a
24 Daniel Halksworth n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:30:06 09:26:52 10
2 Bella Bayliss GBR 09:44:56 09:41:37 40
3 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 09:51:38 09:48:16 57
4 Nicole Woysch GER 10:22:31 10:18:59 154
5 Katya Meyers USA 10:24:03 10:20:30 162
6 Christine Hemphill AUS 10:30:51 10:27:16 182
7 Ute Streiter 10:36:00 10:32:23 192
8 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN 11:09:25 11:05:37 249
9 Tine Holst n/a unrated n/a
10 Carla Van Rooijen n/a unrated n/a
11 Saleta Castro n/a unrated n/a
12 Melina de Monserratt n/a unrated n/a
13 Christine Waitz n/a unrated n/a

Results for Kirill Kotshegarov (EST)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2010-05-01 08:58:19 08:53:04 08:46:57 4
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:24:29 08:39:55 08:39:55 1

Results for Esben Hovgaard (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:38:51 08:47:29 08:48:18 16
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 08:54:37 08:49:55 08:48:51 3
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:31:29 08:47:37 08:47:37 8

Results for Stephen Bayliss (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:16:47 08:42:13 08:50:29 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 09:04:07 09:14:48 08:51:14 18
IM UK 2010-08-01 08:46:19 08:52:33 08:49:17 2
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:31:07 08:47:37 08:49:01 6
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:40:28 08:48:09 08:49:09 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:19:56 09:14:52 08:49:14 45
IM UK 2009-08-02 08:48:30 08:45:32 08:47:08 2
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:17:06 08:32:28 08:47:16 3
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:02:15 08:59:22 08:48:36 5
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:47:26 08:58:47 08:47:34 4
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:38:29 08:46:15 08:46:26 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:49:38 08:47:29 08:46:28 18
IM UK 2008-09-07 08:53:59 08:52:29 08:46:21 1
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:13:53 08:29:58 08:45:38 2
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:18:23 08:27:35 08:47:37 1
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:37:03 08:44:01 08:50:17 4
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:17:50 08:33:39 08:51:13 5
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:30:59 08:46:06 08:54:01 4
IM UK 2007-08-19 08:38:09 08:43:42 08:55:29 2
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:37:03 08:47:57 08:57:59 5
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:43:41 08:51:01 09:00:27 4
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:00:38 09:01:38 09:02:58 14
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:35:01 08:41:10 09:03:21 4
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:47:06 08:49:17 09:11:33 6
IM UK 2005-08-21 09:15:14 09:01:57 09:23:45 4
IM Lanzarote 2005-06-04 09:46:55 09:46:55 09:46:55 12

Results for Philip Graves (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:16:02 09:11:00 08:57:20 41
IM UK 2009-08-02 08:45:52 08:42:55 08:42:55 1

Results for Bert Jammaer (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:42:34 08:46:28 08:57:21 3
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:32:26 08:43:58 08:59:13 8
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:41:51 09:43:02 09:02:16 54
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 08:39:36 08:37:38 08:54:32 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:41:13 08:36:30 08:58:00 16
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 08:54:03 08:51:12 09:02:27 1
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:43:19 10:03:49 09:05:01 38
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 08:59:40 08:57:06 08:50:52 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:35:53 08:35:34 08:49:11 12
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:05:09 09:02:57 08:53:09 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:01:47 08:57:48 08:49:42 39
IM Austria 2006-07-16 08:22:48 08:33:31 08:46:17 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:53:16 08:52:44 08:54:30 30
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 08:51:58 08:56:24 08:56:24 6

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:09:57 09:04:04 08:57:28 6
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:29:25 08:37:53 08:57:10 13
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:15:21 09:10:23 08:58:03 6
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:08 08:43:32 08:57:29 6
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:13:42 09:15:22 08:58:08 30
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:37:59 08:43:32 08:57:20 9
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:11:11 09:11:25 08:57:56 9
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:40:36 08:52:13 08:57:19 8
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 08:59:43 08:57:33 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:27:44 09:29:35 08:57:27 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:39:52 08:50:04 08:55:57 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:46:04 08:56:14 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 08:57:32 08:56:43 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:46:53 08:56:41 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:50:57 08:57:11 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:36:15 08:52:32 08:57:30 6
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:09:43 09:04:21 08:57:46 6
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:00:41 08:57:25 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:57:08 09:12:56 08:57:14 10
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 08:47:04 08:56:24 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:17:57 08:56:55 48
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:06:32 08:55:43 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:09:47 08:55:05 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:34:59 08:54:11 10
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:37:18 08:50:06 08:55:25 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:47:13 08:55:46 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 08:50:17 08:56:20 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:34:48 08:56:44 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:40:41 08:58:14 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:02:29 08:59:31 31
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 08:54:10 08:59:17 2
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:53:05 09:05:32 08:59:41 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:53:58 09:03:19 08:59:11 4
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:11:11 09:14:01 08:58:50 11
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:13:01 08:57:26 6
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:27:15 08:43:22 08:55:58 10
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:08:52 08:57:14 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:42:05 08:55:58 56
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 10:58:00 10:59:48 08:50:29 22
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:22:31 08:36:25 08:50:29 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:40:42 08:51:41 08:52:13 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 08:44:53 08:52:18 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:47:23 08:53:25 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:06:42 08:54:28 47
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:55:50 08:52:14 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 08:45:52 08:51:29 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:40:31 08:52:48 3
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:36:05 08:38:20 08:56:27 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:11:44 09:33:57 50
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:00:54 09:42:05 23
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:06:45 09:06:45 08:58:25 6
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Simon Billeau (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:25:22 09:34:46 09:01:10 33
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:38:06 08:46:33 08:53:26 8
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:43:58 08:55:45 08:55:16 11
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:40:37 08:52:27 08:55:07 8
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:53:49 09:01:41 08:56:04 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:14:07 09:09:06 08:53:39 38
IM France 2009-06-28 08:46:30 08:53:00 08:44:35 3
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:20:32 08:34:43 08:34:43 5

Results for Patrick Jaberg ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:33:50 08:46:42 09:02:43 14
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:10:03 09:07:58 09:10:40 9
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:47:51 09:00:34 09:11:57 7
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:16:44 09:13:46 09:18:43 11
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 09:28:01 09:25:19 09:25:19 13

Results for Domenico Passuello (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2011-07-31 08:51:52 09:02:44 09:05:07 4
IM France 2011-06-26 09:03:34 09:07:35 09:07:35 7

Results for Sergio Marques (PRT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:54:14 09:03:07 09:05:50 20
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:18:26 09:20:07 09:06:08 33
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:57:53 09:09:59 09:04:37 16
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:48:01 09:02:01 09:04:00 6
IM France 2011-06-26 08:49:55 08:53:50 09:04:15 5
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:48:57 08:54:37 09:05:45 12
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:09:30 09:21:46 09:07:32 15
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:05:04 09:07:59 09:04:54 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:11:10 09:05:47 09:04:20 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:41:02 09:35:47 09:04:03 60
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:08:38 09:05:43 08:57:30 8
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:47:16 09:44:53 08:55:38 57
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 08:59:16 08:56:02 08:44:05 3
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:23:49 08:38:44 08:40:36 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 08:36:05 08:46:42 08:41:10 7
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:40:32 08:36:43 08:39:04 19
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:31:26 08:32:23 08:40:07 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:43:45 08:43:14 08:44:53 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:46:47 08:46:47 08:46:47 3

Results for Alvaro Velazquez ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:09:16 09:07:11 09:16:52 8
IM Austria 2008-07-13 09:21:22 09:39:39 09:22:58 23
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:51:26 09:12:55 09:13:14 16
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:58:44 09:11:35 09:13:28 25
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 09:11:21 09:15:57 09:15:57 13

Results for Ueli Bieler (SUI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 09:07:08 09:21:38 09:21:42 9
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 09:12:39 09:23:59 09:21:44 18
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:50:24 09:03:10 09:20:35 9
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:11:17 09:24:09 09:31:19 15
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:19:58 09:33:30 09:37:29 15
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 09:39:36 09:44:26 09:44:26 17

Results for Xavier Diepart (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2010-06-27 09:06:54 09:20:35 09:23:49 7
IM France 2007-06-24 09:23:37 09:31:56 09:28:07 12
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:21:01 09:23:15 09:23:15 12

Results for Nicholas Peter Munoz (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:02:44 08:57:58 09:23:55 5
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 08:58:55 08:56:53 09:32:19 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:22:35 10:16:57 09:43:40 70
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:12:47 09:09:41 09:31:27 5
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:22:10 09:19:10 09:43:04 13
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 10:06:27 10:04:00 10:07:24 22
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 10:16:37 10:11:57 10:11:57 25

Results for Oliver Simon ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:26:33 09:40:44 09:30:51 38
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:54:43 09:45:02 09:25:32 11
IM UK 2011-07-31 08:54:28 09:05:23 09:05:23 5

Results for Eneko Elosegui (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:54:57 09:06:52 09:44:00 13
IM UK 2010-08-01 09:38:53 09:45:44 09:52:01 7
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:21:08 09:19:01 09:53:34 14
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:36:48 09:33:33 10:04:03 12
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:59:58 09:56:46 10:13:44 26
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:44:38 10:54:18 10:21:02 24
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:00:09 09:58:50 09:58:28 17
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:51:39 09:57:59 09:57:59 23

Results for Fernando Cuenllas ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:59:58 09:54:41 09:54:41 13

Results for Victor Del Corral ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Ludovic Le Guellec ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Bryan Mccrystal ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Till Schramm ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for David Vazquez ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Remy Vasseur ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Daniel Halksworth ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michelle Vesterby (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:19:05 09:28:23 09:26:52 9
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:11:23 09:25:11 09:25:11 5

Results for Bella Bayliss (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2010-08-01 10:06:52 10:14:03 09:41:37 2
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:16:47 10:14:27 09:38:48 3
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 09:22:34 09:28:27 09:35:36 1
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:13:52 09:30:49 09:36:12 3
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:34:00 09:30:46 09:36:42 1
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:50:13 09:06:36 09:37:14 1
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:54:58 09:51:48 09:40:16 1
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:41:04 09:49:46 09:39:03 5
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:07:48 09:27:03 09:37:52 1
IM UK 2008-09-07 09:49:07 09:47:27 09:39:04 1
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:51:17 09:08:36 09:38:04 2
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:02:30 09:59:38 09:41:51 1
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 09:27:48 09:38:17 09:39:21 1
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:25:33 09:33:10 09:39:31 4
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:13:34 09:29:57 09:40:40 4
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:36:13 09:42:23 09:42:46 1
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:20:10 09:31:59 09:42:51 3
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:48:41 09:47:38 09:45:47 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:28:28 09:36:26 09:45:08 1
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:39:14 09:46:09 09:49:01 4
IM Florida 2005-11-05 09:33:09 09:35:31 09:50:34 1
IM UK 2005-08-21 10:21:25 10:06:33 10:06:33 3

Results for Heleen Bij De Vaate (NLD)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:35:58 10:37:53 09:48:16 24
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:32:51 09:45:44 09:40:29 9
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:56:11 09:23:38 09:39:34 4
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:29:15 09:41:56 09:42:50 8
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:27:02 09:28:11 09:43:01 9
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 09:23:50 09:35:24 09:46:43 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:21:06 09:28:26 09:50:12 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:12:00 10:09:30 09:55:20 24
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:12:10 10:09:16 09:51:10 2
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:07:40 09:23:53 09:44:40 2
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:58:25 09:57:21 09:53:49 5
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:42:12 09:37:55 09:51:46 13
IM Germany 2006-07-23 09:55:14 10:06:38 10:06:38 6

Results for Nicole Woysch (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2011-07-03 09:23:31 09:52:22 10:18:59 8
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 10:52:01 10:46:17 10:24:58 6
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 09:49:44 10:01:18 10:19:03 5
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:51:20 10:52:40 10:24:43 40
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:11:18 10:08:59 10:12:22 2
IM Austria 2009-07-05 09:29:37 09:47:13 10:14:34 5
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 10:46:19 10:42:52 10:42:52 8

Results for Katya Meyers (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:10:28 10:12:24 10:20:30 5
IM France 2011-06-26 10:07:04 10:11:33 10:21:56 7
IM France 2010-06-27 10:02:12 10:17:16 10:24:00 6
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:35:53 09:53:30 10:25:10 8
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:12:59 10:17:43 10:30:36 10
IM France 2009-06-28 09:58:30 10:05:53 10:33:06 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:23:01 10:20:29 10:39:16 28
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 11:00:22 10:56:24 10:43:30 11
IM France 2008-06-22 10:28:06 10:36:03 10:39:55 5
IM Australia 2007-04-08 10:24:36 10:28:45 10:41:18 13
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 11:33:39 11:17:32 10:45:35 12
IM France 2006-06-24 10:18:41 10:27:53 10:32:34 4
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:48:46 10:48:07 10:35:29 39
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:24:49 10:22:23 10:22:23 10

Results for Christine Hemphill (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 10:22:40 10:27:16 10:27:16 10

Results for Ute Streiter ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 10:20:34 10:34:38 10:32:23 6
IM Germany 2009-07-05 09:47:00 10:07:19 10:30:45 7
IM Germany 2008-07-06 10:03:03 10:26:17 10:46:20 12
IM UK 2006-08-16 11:30:51 11:33:36 11:06:21 9
IM Austria 2005-07-03 10:28:45 10:28:45 10:28:45 11

Results for Zsuzsanna Harsanyi (HUN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2010-08-01 11:31:29 11:39:40 11:05:37 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 12:12:04 12:04:55 10:56:58 11
IM France 2009-06-28 11:07:25 11:15:39 10:35:59 14
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 10:07:34 10:21:45 10:23:17 8
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 10:18:06 10:28:55 10:23:47 5
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 10:34:29 10:33:21 10:21:29 8
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:18:56 10:14:23 10:15:58 35
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:39:52 10:39:14 10:17:06 38
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:52:23 09:52:23 09:52:23 4

Results for Tine Holst ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Carla Van Rooijen ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Saleta Castro ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Melina de Monserratt ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Christine Waitz ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Texas 2012 – Predictions (Detail Post)

May 11, 2012 by · 1 Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Rasmus Henning DNK 08:22:30 08:27:56 10
2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:25:23 08:30:51 14
3 Paul Amey GBR 08:28:28 08:33:58 20
4 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:29:13 08:34:44 24
5 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:36:12 08:41:47 40
6 Torsten Abel GER 08:39:47 08:45:24 57
7 Jozsef Major HUN 08:42:40 08:48:19 80
8 Justin Daerr USA 08:45:54 08:51:35 93
9 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:53:14 08:59:00 129
10 Christian Brader GER 08:55:29 09:01:17 146
11 Matthew Russell USA 09:01:22 09:07:13 175
12 Brandon Marsh USA 09:02:20 09:08:12 183
13 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:02:26 09:08:18 185
14 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:08:47 09:14:43 228
15 Erich Kunz SUI 09:11:52 09:17:50 259
16 Scott Defilippis USA 09:17:51 09:23:53 308
17 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:18:22 09:24:24 313
18 Olly Piggin CAN 09:19:17 09:25:20 316
19 Anthony Toth CAN 09:24:31 09:30:38 361
20 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:27:47 09:33:56 381
21 Mac Brown USA 09:38:31 09:44:47 457
22 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:07:21 10:13:55 647
23 Jim Lamastra   n/a unrated n/a
24 Robert Wade   n/a unrated n/a
25 Benoit Bourguet   n/a unrated n/a
26 Jonathan Shearon   n/a unrated n/a
27 Alex Weber   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:15:28 09:21:29 7
2 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:20:26 09:26:30 10
3 Amy Marsh USA 09:24:46 09:30:53 20
4 Caitlin Snow USA 09:32:12 09:38:23 35
5 Corinne Abraham   09:43:36 09:49:55 59
6 Caroline Gregory USA 10:01:51 10:08:22 115
7 Charisa Wernick USA 10:05:46 10:12:19 133
8 Sarah Piampiano   10:06:25 10:12:59 135
9 Marilyn McDonald CAN 10:14:07 10:20:46 163
10 Cindy Lewis   10:20:53 10:27:36 182
11 Tami Ritchie   10:34:55 10:41:47 211
12 Amanda McKenzie USA 10:52:52 10:59:56 242
13 Sandra Soldan   n/a unrated n/a
14 Jackie Pearce   n/a unrated n/a

Results for Rasmus Henning (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:35:53 08:37:26 08:27:56 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:10:58 08:21:54 08:24:31 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:41:18 08:42:22 08:25:31 23
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 07:52:36 08:09:00 08:15:32 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:28:17 08:23:41 08:23:41 5

Results for Jordan Rapp (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:28:09 08:31:56 08:30:51 1
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:16:45 08:27:49 08:30:31 4
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:13:35 08:22:28 08:31:27 1
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:25:13 08:29:07 08:34:37 1
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:19:45 08:26:17 08:37:18 3
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 08:35:04 08:38:16 08:44:29 3
IM Canada 2007-08-26 08:51:32 08:51:56 08:51:56 5

Results for Paul Amey (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:01:29 08:13:32 08:33:58 2
IM France 2011-06-26 08:47:04 08:50:58 08:45:48 4
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:27:20 08:33:58 08:40:17 7
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:48:58 08:46:49 08:46:49 16

Results for Maxim Kriat (UKR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:10:43 08:30:27 08:34:44 2
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:26:51 08:42:21 08:42:21 2

Results for Mathias Hecht (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:30:26 08:43:58 08:41:47 3
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:32:03 08:32:16 08:41:27 1
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:45:36 08:46:47 08:43:01 3
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:28:53 08:36:23 08:42:17 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:37:29 08:32:48 08:43:20 13
IM Germany 2009-07-05 08:11:56 08:28:58 08:45:14 5
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:08:03 09:10:50 08:48:30 12
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:34:02 08:31:56 08:43:22 8
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:56:33 08:55:23 08:46:13 3
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:42:47 08:45:29 08:43:26 3
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 08:32:47 08:45:10 08:42:38 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:54:16 08:50:20 08:41:29 33
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 08:26:01 08:37:45 08:36:15 1
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:32:14 08:34:28 08:34:28 3

Results for Torsten Abel (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:16:44 08:29:10 08:45:24 4
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:41:09 08:45:02 08:48:58 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:38:40 08:44:13 08:49:59 10
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:42:42 08:43:46 08:51:48 26
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:20:39 08:29:39 08:54:40 3
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:36:38 08:49:04 09:04:18 3
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:02:07 09:02:31 09:12:23 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:34:05 09:35:59 09:16:48 16
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:14:42 09:13:43 09:02:36 10
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:36:06 08:47:02 08:47:02 11

Results for Jozsef Major (HUN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:39:52 08:41:26 08:48:19 19
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:28:15 08:54:16 08:49:09 6
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:24:17 08:29:41 08:48:31 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:42:25 08:52:40 08:51:08 9
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:26:15 08:37:32 08:50:55 5
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:40:46 08:41:50 08:53:02 22
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:16:04 09:10:38 08:55:04 9
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:38:37 08:59:30 08:52:07 20
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:21:34 08:28:07 08:50:48 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:08:12 09:05:58 08:54:44 35
IM France 2008-06-22 08:57:45 09:04:33 08:52:28 7
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 08:34:19 08:37:31 08:49:44 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:51:44 08:51:25 08:53:04 22
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 08:40:01 08:52:35 08:53:35 3
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:42:42 08:45:36 08:53:59 5
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:48:17 08:55:41 08:58:59 7
IM France 2006-06-24 08:54:42 09:02:39 09:02:39 4

Results for Justin Daerr (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:18:02 08:38:04 08:51:35 3
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 08:34:35 08:44:10 08:53:27 3
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:29:44 08:35:11 08:54:51 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:08:12 09:09:19 08:58:01 45
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:05:09 09:09:43 08:56:15 4
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 08:38:19 08:38:50 08:53:56 2
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:48:18 09:04:28 08:56:34 11
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 08:59:06 08:57:14 08:55:00 6
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:47:47 08:53:28 08:54:29 3
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:40:10 08:46:58 08:54:43 11
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:37:34 08:44:16 08:57:02 5
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:40:25 08:55:49 09:01:59 10
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:00:21 09:00:45 09:04:42 11
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:05:48 09:13:27 09:07:33 15
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:57:28 08:59:41 08:59:41 8

Results for Kevin Taddonio (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:45:51 08:59:01 08:59:00 22
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:35:30 08:58:58 08:58:58 13

Results for Christian Brader (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:06:09 09:18:32 09:01:17 7
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:08:19 09:08:33 08:58:54 8
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:33:43 08:34:46 08:57:30 16
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:32:41 08:40:12 09:00:43 2
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:25:30 08:32:57 09:17:24 4
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 10:23:03 10:44:40 09:24:20 24
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:14:42 09:09:17 09:09:42 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:57:39 08:52:47 09:09:47 26
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:56:35 08:55:59 09:13:25 2
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:21:47 09:18:47 09:17:49 12
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:03:56 10:07:00 09:17:31 20
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:50:08 08:47:58 08:55:53 19
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:58:10 08:57:00 09:00:45 4
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:51:09 09:05:50 09:05:50 12

Results for Matthew Russell (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:29:19 08:42:04 09:07:13 12
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:43:51 08:45:26 09:12:08 23
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:59:31 09:03:32 09:18:23 7
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:26:26 09:28:34 09:22:43 9
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:03:06 09:08:55 09:20:24 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:09:15 09:21:29 09:27:19 20
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:28:58 09:33:44 09:33:44 13

Results for Brandon Marsh (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:45:43 08:58:55 09:08:12 7
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:50:47 09:02:36 09:10:45 12
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:13:52 09:16:04 09:12:51 12
IM UK 2010-08-01 09:07:45 09:14:14 09:11:49 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:42:41 08:58:40 09:10:43 9
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:14:41 09:12:46 09:17:45 9
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:16:44 09:24:01 09:24:01 26

Results for Balazs Csoke (HUN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:16:44 09:18:24 09:08:18 32
IM Korea 2011-07-03 08:48:21 08:55:01 09:05:50 1
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:43:06 08:54:46 09:08:59 10
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:47:46 08:58:07 09:14:20 12
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:57:19 09:08:20 09:22:39 12
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:21:19 09:34:50 09:35:04 16
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:21:53 09:35:28 09:35:28 16

Results for Mike Schifferle (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2012-04-29 10:54:44 10:10:07 09:14:43 9
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:01:18 09:14:53 09:10:08 12
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:41:48 08:54:52 09:09:45 20
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:49:01 08:50:36 09:11:01 26
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:23:54 09:14:43 09:12:53 7
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:54:20 09:06:21 09:12:42 15
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:53:57 09:08:06 09:13:21 8
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:53:07 09:13:45 09:13:57 10
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:04:02 09:16:10 09:13:58 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:47:53 08:59:38 09:13:41 11
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:09:02 09:26:21 09:15:36 22
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:58:35 09:00:43 09:13:55 8
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:49:42 08:57:30 09:16:15 8
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:43:51 08:54:35 09:20:06 8
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:54:57 09:12:13 09:26:39 19
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:54:13 09:07:05 09:31:31 12
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:56:20 09:13:48 09:39:54 20
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 10:00:35 09:58:10 09:48:55 20
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:41:45 09:49:54 09:45:52 31
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:34:59 09:37:16 09:44:16 14
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 09:19:56 09:32:55 09:48:23 15
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 10:03:46 10:08:48 10:08:48 24

Results for Erich Kunz (SUI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:12:03 09:25:52 09:17:50 35
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:55:08 09:06:06 09:06:06 11

Results for Scott Defilippis (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:16:00 09:11:02 09:23:53 7
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:27:13 08:47:37 09:26:29 8
IM France 2011-06-26 09:26:26 09:30:37 09:35:36 13
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:58:05 09:58:20 09:36:56 15
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:43:35 09:00:06 09:29:30 12
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:53:07 09:47:20 09:42:10 17
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:31:53 09:49:23 09:39:07 17
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:25:00 09:28:16 09:28:16 16

Results for Toby Radcliffe (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:32:49 09:34:37 09:24:24 9
IM UK 2011-07-31 09:04:24 09:15:32 09:22:44 8
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:01:17 09:13:22 09:24:05 13
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:01:02 09:18:06 09:26:18 19
IM UK 2010-08-01 09:25:28 09:32:10 09:28:08 6
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:12:44 09:22:41 09:27:04 18
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:33:49 09:30:35 09:28:16 11
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:05:41 09:24:52 09:27:30 24
IM UK 2008-09-07 09:30:36 09:28:59 09:28:28 6
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:15:21 09:21:18 09:28:11 13
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:16:25 09:27:52 09:32:45 21
IM Austria 2005-07-03 09:41:28 09:41:28 09:41:28 28

Results for Olly Piggin (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:22:24 09:27:40 09:25:20 9
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:18:22 09:35:59 09:24:48 25
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:08:15 09:16:18 09:22:10 16
IM St. George 2010-05-01 11:59:16 11:52:15 09:23:51 25
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:38:02 09:42:52 09:23:51 13
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:49:11 09:07:47 09:18:57 15
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:15:39 09:19:39 09:22:00 6
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:09:58 09:17:22 09:22:46 13
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:17:56 09:18:21 09:25:06 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:33:03 09:34:57 09:29:04 15
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:22:36 09:21:36 09:21:36 13

Results for Anthony Toth (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:46:57 08:58:41 09:30:38 10
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:49:44 08:57:30 09:37:59 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:42:01 10:36:12 09:49:05 72
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:02:45 09:06:56 09:36:21 9
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:25:11 09:32:34 09:46:47 31
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:28:22 09:35:44 09:52:26 24
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:59:02 10:01:01 10:02:16 21
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:04:21 10:03:16 10:03:10 22
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:05:22 10:03:01 10:03:01 24

Results for Jesse Vondracek (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2012-04-29 10:29:36 09:46:42 09:33:56 8
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:53:56 09:07:18 09:31:35 26
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:45:27 09:06:35 09:36:17 14
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:30:44 10:32:43 09:43:19 13
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:24:08 09:36:42 09:28:50 25
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:25:52 09:28:53 09:26:27 8
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:18:10 09:22:50 09:25:29 9
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:23:27 09:33:35 09:27:08 24
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:17:01 09:20:14 09:20:14 13

Results for Mac Brown (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:08:14 09:09:58 09:44:47 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:14:12 10:15:27 09:57:01 55
IM Florida 2009-11-07 10:08:21 10:26:58 09:50:13 21
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:11:09 09:09:15 09:35:42 8
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:19:51 10:18:30 09:51:48 24
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:24:31 09:26:23 09:31:01 13
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 09:36:45 09:37:12 09:37:12 3

Results for Sergio Quezada (MEX)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:27:31 09:41:46 10:13:55 23
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 10:29:11 10:31:33 10:27:32 12
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:55:32 10:49:08 10:25:02 24
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:02:53 10:07:32 10:06:23 29
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:05:29 10:04:21 10:04:21 21

Results for Jim Lamastra ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Robert Wade ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Benoit Bourguet ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Jonathan Shearon ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Alex Weber ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mary Beth Ellis (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:34:06 09:35:50 09:21:29 15
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:03:13 09:07:16 09:16:25 1
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:18:55 09:31:35 09:21:07 1
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:43:34 09:10:22 09:10:22 1

Results for Kathleen Calkins ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:12:40 09:26:30 09:26:30 7

Results for Amy Marsh (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 09:11:36 09:26:13 09:30:53 2
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:07:49 09:29:01 09:32:23 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:28:19 09:29:29 09:33:53 11
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:27:30 09:32:15 09:36:31 1
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:43:59 09:41:58 09:41:58 1

Results for Caitlin Snow (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:18:11 09:19:52 09:38:23 9
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:29:18 09:34:38 09:42:28 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:26:42 09:27:51 09:44:26 8
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:44:18 09:49:11 09:48:45 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:07:26 10:01:30 09:48:37 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:51:59 09:46:38 09:43:00 14
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:41:21 09:40:42 09:40:52 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:43:27 09:41:04 09:41:04 12

Results for Corinne Abraham ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 09:41:21 09:49:55 09:49:55 3

Results for Caroline Gregory (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:50:44 10:05:31 10:08:22 19
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 10:05:53 10:11:34 10:11:34 4

Results for Charisa Wernick (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:22:37 09:36:42 10:12:19 10
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 10:07:30 10:19:25 10:32:24 7
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 10:07:19 10:09:44 10:36:44 5
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 10:13:07 10:18:15 10:49:07 8
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:35:13 10:39:48 11:13:26 10
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 11:13:10 11:15:24 11:39:02 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 12:09:56 12:10:30 12:10:30 22

Results for Sarah Piampiano ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:57:58 10:12:59 10:12:59 7

Results for Marilyn McDonald (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 10:06:47 10:18:05 10:20:46 7
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 10:42:55 10:46:55 10:22:09 4
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 09:59:40 10:18:44 10:16:33 13
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:09:36 10:10:03 10:15:57 9
IM France 2007-06-24 10:15:23 10:24:28 10:18:00 5
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:54:31 10:39:18 10:14:48 10
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 09:56:50 09:59:26 09:58:54 2
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:00:39 09:58:19 09:58:19 5

Results for Cindy Lewis ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 10:04:14 10:15:30 10:27:36 6
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 09:45:56 10:12:36 10:32:34 8
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:34:00 10:37:23 10:45:35 6
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:53:06 10:51:41 10:54:05 8
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:42 10:57:11 10:57:11 20

Results for Tami Ritchie ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 10:26:04 10:41:47 10:41:47 12

Results for Amanda McKenzie (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:37:24 11:02:04 10:59:56 11
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:33:12 10:53:11 10:59:17 11
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:41:45 10:45:27 11:01:08 10
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:09:38 10:31:04 11:06:15 9
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:13:05 11:21:48 11:18:28 16
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:53:05 11:01:52 11:16:50 13
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:14 10:56:43 11:27:58 19
IM UK 2005-08-21 12:41:57 12:23:43 12:23:43 8

Results for Sandra Soldan ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Jackie Pearce ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Australia 2012 – Analyzing Results

May 9, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Race Conditions

The field for IM Australia was pretty small – not much of a surprise with all the attention (and points and money) that IM Melbourne was getting. We had only 9 pro athletes finishing the race. The adjustment was at 9:26 – a quicker race than in the past, but still in line with the last years (new course rating of 4:41, mainly as a result of slower results in the earlier years).

Male Results

Paul Ambrose won the race leading from start to finish, but he faced a strong run by Tim Berkel who managed to make the race a bit more interesting towards the end:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:46:18 04:31:25 02:57:12 08:17:38 08:45:00
2 Tim Berkel AUS 00:48:49 04:42:04 02:47:20 08:21:11 08:41:58
3 Jason Shortis AUS 00:50:28 04:53:51 02:51:57 08:40:02 08:47:26
4 Leon Griffin AUS 00:48:53 04:48:26 03:15:26 08:55:54 08:53:12
5 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 00:51:46 05:10:03 03:18:59 09:24:21 09:08:08
6 Dan Brown PHI 00:56:46 05:42:34 06:44:37 13:29:04 08:48:41

Female Results

The three women came off the bike very close together, and Aussie Michelle Mitchell put in a soli 3:08 marathon to win the race:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Michelle Mitchell AUS 00:51:48 05:29:57 03:08:38 09:34:57 09:32:06
2 Nicole Ward AUS 00:51:50 05:28:57 03:20:47 09:44:40 09:54:22
3 Hillary Biscay USA 00:50:40 05:29:13 03:34:04 09:58:19 10:03:55

IM St. George 2012 – Analyzing Results

May 9, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Race Conditions

The conditions on race were so hard that they resulted in very slow finishing times. In fact they were so slow that my “normal” calculation methods didn’t work. (Usually I only look at athletes within half an hour of their expected finish times to calculate the race adjustment. This time there were only two athletes which would have resulted in an inappropriate adjustment.) After some fiddling around, I ended up with an adjustment of –36:48, meaning that the finishing times were more than half an hour slower compared to a “neutral” course (such as IM Hawaii). This is the lowest number I have ever seen – and it will probably stay that way for quite some time. But as this is the last time that St. George was run as a full Ironman, we will not be able to see if this year’s results were a fluke or typical of the conditions in Utah.

Male Results

On the men’s side, Ben Hoffman won the race on the run:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Ben Hoffman USA 00:52:44 05:10:01 03:01:24 09:07:04 09:25:07
2 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:52:42 05:10:35 03:18:23 09:25:58 09:17:45
3 Axel Zeebroek BEL 00:51:22 05:26:52 03:12:53 09:35:33 09:28:58
4 Thomas Gerlach   00:59:19 05:33:54 03:12:14 09:49:00 10:43:39
5 Matthew Sheeks USA 01:04:09 05:48:41 02:55:37 09:52:03 10:00:58
6 Ernst Moser AUT 01:04:52 06:45:00 03:16:58 10:04:07 09:43:34
7 Adam O’Meara CAN 00:58:47 05:51:26 03:13:44 10:08:10 10:15:40
8 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:58:47 06:06:57 03:20:21 10:29:36 10:10:32
9 Mike Schifferle SWI 01:04:31 06:30:15 03:13:28 10:54:44 09:47:38
10 Heath Thurston USA 00:51:18 06:24:25 03:45:13 11:07:34 10:46:54

Maik Twelsiek finished the bike together with Ben Hoffman, but then had to let him go on the run, Chris MacDonald even had to “pull the pin” on the run and DNF’d, leaving the last place on the podium for Axel Zeebroek.

Female Results

On the female side, “MBK” lead the race from wire to wire in a very convincing fashion, almost posting the fastest times on each of the segments:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:52:42 05:57:14 03:18:23 10:12:59 10:16:41
2 Jessie Donavan USA 01:18:51 05:55:24 03:18:58 10:37:30 10:18:28
3 Uli Bromme USA 01:09:10 06:10:21 03:29:40 10:53:20 10:43:21
4 Gillian Clayton   01:34:00 06:20:12 03:15:13 11:15:38 n/a
5 Erin Spitler   01:19:37 06:07:22 03:45:30 11:16:42 11:05:07
6 Erin Young   01:09:11 06:56:04 03:40:01 11:52:35 n/a

IM St. George 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

April 28, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

St. George has been run twice as an Ironman (2010 and 2011), and it has just been announced that it will become a 70.3. after this year. So this is the last year for athletes to post a course record. Currently these stand at 8:32:03 (posted by last year’s winner Mathias Hecht) and 9:30:33 (also from last year by Heather Wurtele). One chance to go down in history!

St. George is a slow course (lots of hills, especially on the run) with a course rating of –2:33. It is a 2.000 points race (and in North America), so the field is a bit larger and deeper than IM Australia.

Male Participants

Last year’s second, Maik Twelsiek is back and will aim to win another Ironman.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:44:37 08:42:09 42
2 Chris McDonald AUS 08:50:29 08:48:00 74
3 Ben Hoffman USA 08:51:33 08:49:03 84
4 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:55:10 08:52:39 97
5 Kevin Taddonio USA 09:01:31 08:58:58 127
6 Ernst Moser AUT 09:08:52 09:06:17 173
7 Matthew Russell USA 09:09:47 09:07:12 175
8 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:12:42 09:10:06 195
9 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:25:15 09:22:36 299
10 Brendan Halpin USA 09:32:06 09:29:25 346
11 Billy Edwards USA 09:32:11 09:29:30 350
12 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:34:16 09:31:34 372
13 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:39:05 09:36:22 395
14 Logan Franks USA 09:58:06 09:55:17 524
15 Thomas Gerlach   10:05:25 10:02:34 570
16 Heath Thurston USA 10:08:28 10:05:37 592
17 Dantley Young USA 10:08:44 10:05:52 594
18 Richard Wygand BRA 10:52:21 10:49:17 770
19 Kirk Nelson USA 12:25:14 12:21:44 858
20 Monte Still   n/a unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds:

  • Maik Twelsiek: 47%
  • Ben Hoffman: 22%
  • Chris McDonald: 15%
  • Axel Zeebroek: 10%

“Maiki” is a very solid competitor who rarely has a day off, lets hope he overcame his DNF in Abu Dhabi (apparently, he had problems with his bike position there). But I’m sure that Ben and Chris will make his life as hard as possible.

Female Participants

Here are the entries in the women’s race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:39:36 09:36:53 30
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:40:02 09:37:19 31
3 Jessie Donavan USA 09:41:43 09:38:59 36
4 Jessica Smith USA 09:51:54 09:49:07 57
5 Uli Bromme USA 10:05:07 10:02:17 89
6 Jackie Arendt USA 10:07:55 10:05:04 100
7 Erin Spitler USA 10:25:36 10:22:40 170
8 Trish Deim USA n/a unrated n/a
9 Gillian Clayton CAN n/a unrated n/a
10 Erin Young USA n/a unrated n/a

Even if their rankings are quite close, “MBK” has a better chance of winning:

  • Meredith Kessler: 43%
  • Mackenzie Madison: 37%
  • Jessie Donavan: 11%

IM Australia 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

April 28, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Ironman Australia does not draw a big field – no surprise for a 1.000-points race. It has a course rating of 3:53, but has seen adjustments around 8 minutes in the last years, so the course can be quick. The course records are held by Chris McCormack (8:20:41 in 2006) and Chrissie Wellington (8:57:10 in 2009).

Last year, we had two “big names” win the race: Pete Jacobs in 8:29:28 and Caroline Steffen in 9:29:54. After all, Australia is a nice location and well placed in the year to prepare for Kona once qualifying is out of the way.

Male Participants

 

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tim Berkel AUS 08:47:24 08:51:13 91
2 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:50:30 08:54:20 106
3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:52:57 08:56:48 115
4 Dan Brown PHI 08:54:13 08:58:05 124
5 Leon Griffin AUS 08:58:46 09:02:40 150
6 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 09:13:52 09:17:52 259
7 Scott Defilippis USA 09:19:49 09:23:52 306

Looking at the winning odds, it ‘s going to be a three way race:

  • Paul Ambrose: 36%
  • Tim Berkel: 36%
  • Jason Shortis: 16%

Female Participants

The field on the women’s side is even smaller:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:38:05 09:42:16 42
2 Kat Baker AUS 09:58:22 10:02:42 91
3 Nicole Ward AUS 10:00:34 10:04:55 99
4 Hillary Biscay USA 10:10:14 10:14:39 140

All athletes have a chance to win, but Michelle Mitchell is the clear favorite:

  • Michelle Mitchell: 57%
  • Nicole Ward: 17%
  • Hillary Biscay: 16%
  • Kat Baker: 10%

Kona 2012 Odds: April Changes

April 24, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Analysis 

In February, I started a series of posts on the Kona 2012 odds. This is the April update, after IM Melbourne and IM South Africa. You can always see the latest odds by clicking “Kona 2012 Odds” in the main menu.

Men

The current odds are as follows:

  • Craig Alexander: 34%
  • Chris McCormack, Andreas Raelert, Marino Vanhoenacker: 12% each
  • Pete Jacobs: 7%
  • Eneko Llanos, Cameron Brown: 6%
  • Paul Amey: 2%

And a look at the changes over time:

image

Here’s where the last set of changes are coming from:

  • I’ve added Chris McCormack back into the mix. With WTC “buying” the Cairns race and turning it into an “official” IM race with qualifying points and Chris being committed to race there (as he did last year when it was a Challenge race), his “validation” issue has been resolved and as long as he finishes he gets a spot on the Kona start list. He may still qulify for the Olympics, but even the he might show up in Kona to race. And once he’s in the race, he will have an influence on the dynamics of the race.
  • With Macca back in the race, almost everyone’s odds are going down.
  • Even with Macca in the field, Crowie’s great performance n Melbourne improved his odds to win again in Kona. He will be able to take his time to prepare for Kona and he seems to be on a completely different level of confidence since winning in Las Vegas and Kona.
  • After pushing Crowie to a sub-8 finish and delivering his career best performance, Cam Brown´s odds have grown to much more than a statistical blip.

Women

The current odds are as follows:

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 31%
  • Caroline Steffen: 19%
  • Leanda Cave: 14%
  • Rachel Joyce: 14%
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 7%
  • Catriona Morrison: 4%

The changes over the season:

image_thumb[7]

Here’s where the last set of changes are coming from:

  • The odds for Caroline Steffen and Rachel Joyce have improved after their great performances in Melbourne.
  • Rinnie’s odds have decreased after Melbourne, but she is still the clear favorite. However, I’m not worried about her for Kona – her Melbourne performance was better than her race in New Zealand last year.
  • For the rest of the athletes, there were no noticeable changes compared to February.

IM St. George 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

April 24, 2012 by · 1 Comment
Filed under: PreRace 
Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:44:37 08:42:09 42
2 Chris McDonald AUS 08:50:29 08:48:00 74
3 Ben Hoffman USA 08:51:33 08:49:03 84
4 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:55:10 08:52:39 97
5 Kevin Taddonio USA 09:01:31 08:58:58 127
6 Ernst Moser AUT 09:08:52 09:06:17 173
7 Matthew Russell USA 09:09:47 09:07:12 175
8 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:12:42 09:10:06 195
9 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:25:15 09:22:36 299
10 Brendan Halpin USA 09:32:06 09:29:25 346
11 Billy Edwards USA 09:32:11 09:29:30 350
12 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:34:16 09:31:34 372
13 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:39:05 09:36:22 395
14 Logan Franks USA 09:58:06 09:55:17 524
15 Thomas Gerlach   10:05:25 10:02:34 570
16 Heath Thurston USA 10:08:28 10:05:37 592
17 Dantley Young USA 10:08:44 10:05:52 594
18 Richard Wygand BRA 10:52:21 10:49:17 770
19 Kirk Nelson USA 12:25:14 12:21:44 858
20 Monte Still   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:39:36 09:36:53 30
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:40:02 09:37:19 31
3 Jessie Donavan USA 09:41:43 09:38:59 36
4 Jessica Smith USA 09:51:54 09:49:07 57
5 Uli Bromme USA 10:05:07 10:02:17 89
6 Jackie Arendt USA 10:07:55 10:05:04 100
7 Erin Spitler   10:25:36 10:22:40 170
8 Trish Deim   n/a unrated n/a
9 Gillian Clayton   n/a unrated n/a
10 Erin Young   n/a unrated n/a

Results for Maik Twelsiek (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:56:10 09:04:54 08:42:09 10
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:43:03 08:44:36 08:39:18 22
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 08:24:59 08:29:42 08:38:35 2
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:33:46 08:33:57 08:39:51 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:27:02 08:28:03 08:40:47 12
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:48:33 08:52:58 08:42:47 3
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 08:42:53 08:40:51 08:41:01 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:35:10 08:30:29 08:41:03 12
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:36:37 08:36:01 08:43:09 1
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:34:10 08:36:46 08:44:46 5
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:48:37 08:46:26 08:46:54 14
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:24:03 08:43:28 08:47:02 11
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 08:52:49 08:51:49 08:48:24 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:17:03 08:37:09 08:46:55 6
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:31:53 08:44:05 08:53:41 9
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 09:02:19 09:04:03 09:04:03 9

Results for Chris McDonald (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 08:27:36 08:37:02 08:48:00 1
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:24:34 08:44:04 08:49:02 5
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:32:37 08:48:46 08:49:30 9
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:52:04 08:53:08 08:49:34 35
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:37:22 08:55:18 08:49:14 10
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:48:30 08:53:57 08:48:38 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 08:54:42 08:49:28 08:48:05 3
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 08:56:47 08:54:55 08:47:55 5
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:17:39 08:37:40 08:47:12 11
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:37:41 08:43:15 08:48:14 1
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:58:59 09:06:01 08:48:45 17
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:43:29 08:43:40 08:46:49 1
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 08:54:54 08:51:41 08:47:12 2
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:20:59 08:41:01 08:46:36 4
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 08:49:37 08:52:54 08:47:25 2
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:21:12 08:37:07 08:46:37 8
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 08:38:40 08:40:05 08:48:10 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:24:42 08:45:06 08:49:36 9
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:36:00 08:43:07 08:50:31 4
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 09:12:35 08:59:45 08:52:04 2
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:07:55 09:00:30 08:50:12 9
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:57:09 08:55:03 08:47:01 8
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:37:38 08:39:53 08:43:44 6
IM Canada 2005-08-29 08:47:10 08:45:07 08:45:54 5
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:46:45 08:46:45 08:46:45 5

Results for Ben Hoffman (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 08:33:29 08:35:24 08:49:03 2
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:41:39 08:41:50 08:52:15 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:03:29 09:04:34 08:55:13 42
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:39:34 08:43:54 08:52:15 1
IM St. George 2010-05-01 08:52:54 08:47:41 08:55:48 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:29:54 09:24:43 09:01:09 55
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:24:13 08:30:48 08:30:48 6

Results for Axel Zeebroek (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:54:06 09:07:29 08:52:39 10
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:58:13 08:59:49 08:48:46 28
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:28:07 08:33:33 08:45:02 6
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:28:52 08:38:50 08:49:59 4
IM UK 2010-08-01 08:49:38 08:55:53 08:56:43 3
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:48:14 08:57:43 08:57:43 13

Results for Kevin Taddonio (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:45:51 08:59:00 08:58:58 22
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:35:30 08:58:56 08:58:56 13

Results for Ernst Moser (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:09:42 09:11:25 09:06:17 4
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:37:10 09:03:37 09:05:09 9
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:14:35 09:14:47 09:05:34 11
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:53:49 09:01:38 09:02:27 11
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:40:51 08:57:37 09:02:46 11
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:43:20 08:59:27 09:05:44 14
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:47:03 09:03:55 09:10:30 16
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:08:01 09:19:18 09:19:18 19

Results for Matthew Russell (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:29:19 08:42:03 09:07:12 12
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:43:51 08:45:25 09:12:07 23
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:59:31 09:03:32 09:18:22 7
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:26:26 09:28:33 09:22:42 9
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:03:06 09:08:54 09:20:23 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:09:15 09:21:28 09:27:18 20
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:28:58 09:33:43 09:33:43 13

Results for Mike Schifferle (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:01:18 09:14:51 09:10:06 12
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:41:48 08:54:51 09:09:43 20
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:49:01 08:50:35 09:11:00 26
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:23:54 09:14:40 09:12:51 7
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:54:20 09:06:20 09:12:40 15
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:53:57 09:08:04 09:13:19 8
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:53:07 09:13:44 09:13:55 10
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:04:02 09:16:09 09:13:56 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:47:53 08:59:38 09:13:38 11
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:09:02 09:26:20 09:15:34 22
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:58:35 09:00:42 09:13:52 8
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:49:42 08:57:28 09:16:12 8
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:43:51 08:54:34 09:20:02 8
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:54:57 09:12:10 09:26:35 19
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:54:13 09:07:02 09:31:27 12
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:56:20 09:13:29 09:39:49 20
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 10:00:35 09:58:10 09:48:55 20
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:41:45 09:49:54 09:45:52 31
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:34:59 09:37:16 09:44:16 14
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 09:19:56 09:32:55 09:48:23 15
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 10:03:46 10:08:48 10:08:48 24

Results for Matthew Sheeks (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:17:57 09:22:36 09:22:36 8

Results for Brendan Halpin (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:04:36 09:18:14 09:29:25 13
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:17:13 09:18:58 09:33:40 6
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:34:19 09:39:41 09:41:51 11
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:36:40 09:41:06 09:44:14 23
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:48:09 09:50:06 09:50:06 20

Results for Billy Edwards (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:37:09 09:38:57 09:29:30 10
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:13:13 09:18:23 09:27:39 7
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:45:55 09:50:48 09:29:44 18
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:14:42 09:20:25 09:25:19 11
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:59:30 09:54:03 09:26:35 67
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:12:09 09:11:31 09:19:15 7
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:17:02 09:24:18 09:21:51 27
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:24:34 09:24:12 09:20:54 45
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 09:18:48 09:20:20 09:19:38 13
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:16:09 09:17:59 09:19:14 10
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:21:48 09:20:48 09:20:48 12

Results for Jesse Vondracek (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:53:56 09:07:17 09:31:34 26
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:45:27 09:06:34 09:36:16 14
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:30:44 10:32:42 09:43:18 13
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:24:08 09:36:41 09:28:49 25
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:25:52 09:28:52 09:26:26 8
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:18:10 09:22:50 09:25:28 9
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:23:27 09:33:34 09:27:07 24
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:17:01 09:20:13 09:20:13 13

Results for Adam O’Meara (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:20:26 09:34:28 09:36:22 20
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:35:55 09:40:12 09:36:55 18
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:58:04 09:10:02 09:35:40 14
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:13:58 09:23:55 09:46:57 19
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:58:20 10:02:56 09:58:18 28
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:38:37 09:46:06 09:54:19 28
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:10:00 10:08:55 10:08:55 23

Results for Logan Franks (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 10:20:01 10:31:33 09:55:17 7
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:34:58 09:40:20 09:33:44 12
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:20:27 09:25:08 09:25:08 11

Results for Thomas Gerlach ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:57:00 09:10:25 10:02:34 27
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:53:49 09:56:09 10:20:44 16
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:08:29 10:11:43 10:28:49 12
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:43:20 10:41:05 10:37:05 20
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 10:30:50 10:31:04 10:34:46 19
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:40:11 10:38:59 10:37:35 23
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:50:49 10:35:42 10:35:42 20

Results for Heath Thurston (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:09:18 10:09:31 10:05:37 16
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:08:42 10:13:23 10:02:58 30
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:57:00 10:04:48 09:55:29 40
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:26:07 09:42:52 09:42:52 37

Results for Dantley Young (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:30:41 10:33:52 10:05:52 22
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:19:31 09:26:46 09:48:17 23
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:08:24 10:12:10 10:12:10 16

Results for Richard Wygand (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 10:03:04 10:18:10 10:49:17 30
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:37:08 11:01:46 10:59:04 16
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:49:28 10:08:02 10:58:04 31
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:25:25 10:45:08 11:21:34 18
IM Florida 2008-11-01 11:48:16 12:13:07 11:47:19 46
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 11:15:45 11:30:00 11:26:15 33
IM Florida 2006-11-04 11:12:26 11:21:51 11:21:51 42

Results for Kirk Nelson (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 12:41:21 12:58:17 12:21:44 36
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:34:13 10:19:29 10:19:29 19

Results for Monte Still ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mackenzie Madison (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 09:10:21 09:32:28 09:36:53 2
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:24:11 09:36:44 09:39:54 7
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:34:51 09:43:16 09:43:16 3

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:00:14 09:13:44 09:37:19 3
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:50:45 09:52:36 09:41:18 2
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:37:22 09:41:40 09:39:09 3
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:15:01 09:27:22 09:38:34 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:04:02 10:05:15 09:41:07 26
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:13:46 09:21:52 09:34:19 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:23:52 09:29:41 09:39:00 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:46:58 09:41:13 09:44:10 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:37:09 09:47:31 09:47:31 7

Results for Jessie Donavan (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:24:52 09:38:59 09:38:59 11

Results for Jessica Smith (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:34:45 09:49:07 09:49:07 12

Results for Uli Bromme (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:19:09 10:21:00 10:02:17 21
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:44:10 09:57:17 09:57:29 11
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:10:48 10:11:01 09:57:33 3
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:31:22 09:44:05 09:51:49 9
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:46:19 09:54:54 09:56:25 7
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:47:44 09:58:18 09:58:18 10

Results for Jackie Arendt (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:21:02 10:22:53 10:05:04 22
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 09:40:28 09:51:16 09:58:39 2
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:56:21 09:58:34 10:02:34 4
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:06:36 10:06:49 10:06:49 2

Results for Erin Spitler ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:55:03 10:09:55 10:22:40 21
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:38:32 10:40:32 10:29:44 8
IM Australia 2011-05-01 10:08:33 10:17:45 10:17:45 5

Results for Trish Deim ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Gillian Clayton ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Erin Young ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

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