Announcing the TriRating Report 2016

2016 Book Cover Mockup SmallI’ve been busy working on my free TriRating Report 2016, an 80-page PDF filled with results, data, and analysis about the 2016 season. Please use the URL https://gum.co/2016RatingReport to get your copy (or click on the image on the right).

Read about my male and female “Athletes of the Year” and “Rookies of the Year”, as well as the athletes receiving the “Bookend Award”, “Persistence Award” and “Steady Progress Awards”. Of course the report also contains the Top 10 Ratings (overall and individually for swim, bike and run), the fastest 2016 times and best performances, 2016 Money Lists and a look forward to the 2017 racing season and to Kona 2017.

I’m sure that you’ll like what I’ve put together, so order today to re-live the 2016 season and get fired up for the upcoming 2017 races! The report is available for free, but you can show your support of my work by donating an amount of your choice. As always, thank you for your feedback and support!

Challenge Wanaka 2017 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Last year’s race in Wanaka saw some strong winds, even leading to a few crashes on the bike. This year’s conditions were very calm, with the adjustment of 3:35 being the quickest in the last years, roughly 14 minutes faster than last year. (The new course rating is -5:01.)

Both race winners, Dougal Allan and Yvonne Van Vlerken, posted new course records, beating times from 2010 (Richard Ussher on the male side) and 2013 (Gina Crawford for the females). Dougal also posted a new bike record (4:27, improving his own time from two years ago by three minutes), and while Yvonne was under the old bike record, Laura Siddall was even a few seconds quicker – her 4:58 was almost ten minutes faster than Gina Crawford’s time from 2013.

Male Race Results

Mike Phillips was not a name frequently mentioned as a contender, but he was leading the race after the swim and in the front bike group with the two Lukes (Bell and McKenzie) and Dougal Allan. At 135k Dougal put down the hammer and by T2 built a lead of three minutes. He also proved to be the fastest runner, steadily increasing his lead and winning in course record time. Mike finished in second, keeping the distance at just under six minutes. Luke Bell was more than fifteen minutes back in third, but as he said on Twitter “at least I beat the NZ boys to popping the cork!”

MensPodium

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Dougal Allan NZL 00:54:32 04:27:37 03:00:18 08:26:38 -01:37 NZD 14,500
2 Mike Phillips NZL 00:50:21 04:34:32 03:03:18 08:32:00 n/a NZD 9,000
3 Luke Bell AUS 00:50:27 04:36:48 03:10:27 08:42:50 -04:21 NZD 5,000
4 Allister Caird AUS 01:01:17 04:38:36 03:02:37 08:46:43 -46:15 NZD 3,000
5 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:50:24 04:49:18 03:04:39 08:48:45 -08:36 NZD 2,500
6 Simon Billeau FRA 00:55:35 04:45:26 03:13:16 08:59:50 03:43 NZD 1,500
7 Nathan Miller AUS 00:53:27 05:29:56 03:49:43 10:23:34 n/a
Luke McKenzie AUS 00:51:03 04:38:10 DNF
Per Bittner GER 00:50:32 04:50:41 DNF
Bryan Rhodes NZL 00:50:22 DNF

Female Race Results

VonsyLaura

This year’s race was very similar to last year – Yvonne and Laura were within a few seconds for the whole day, frequently trading the lead. It was very late in the run until Yvonne built a two-minute lead, and she stared her 2017 season with a win. Laura almost closed the gap towards the end – it’s the third time she fought a hard battle with Yvonne in the last two seasons (Wanaka 2016 – 3:29, Roth 2016 – 2:24, and now Wanaka 2017 0:27).

It just seems to  be a question of time until she’s able to get her first big win on the IM distance – maybe in their rematch in two weeks at New Zealand? At 70.3 Taupo in December she showed that she’s not afraid to mix it up with five-time IM New Zealand champion Meredith Kessler as well.

Third place went to Emma Bilham who was leading after the swim and had the fastest run of the day, but lost too much time on the bike to contend for more than the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:58:02 04:59:29 03:14:11 09:15:44 03:05 NZD 14,500
2 Laura Siddall GBR 00:58:00 04:58:58 03:14:57 09:16:11 -12:00 NZD 9,000
3 Emma Bilham SUI 00:54:22 05:19:34 03:12:07 09:30:39 06:51 NZD 5,000
4 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:00:21 05:27:37 03:25:18 09:58:58 -06:05 NZD 3,000
5 Simone Maier GER 01:07:37 05:13:18 03:34:45 10:03:06 17:25 NZD 2,500
6 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 01:00:28 05:29:07 03:33:18 10:08:36 -04:37 NZD 1,500
7 Julia Grant NZL 01:00:26 05:35:02 03:37:29 10:17:22 08:29
8 Bonnie Van Wilgenburg GBR 01:17:32 05:35:03 03:40:42 10:38:55 n/a
9 Yvette Grice GBR 00:58:03 05:51:45 03:49:15 10:45:01 41:10
Julia Viellehner GER 01:07:03 DNF

Photos by Phil Walter/Getty Images, Copyright Getty Images, 2017

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Ironman New Zealand 2017 (March 4th) – Seedings

IMNZLogo

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:30:14
2007 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:26:33 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:20:02
2008 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:24:49 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:16:00
2009 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:18:05 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:18:26
2010 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:21:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:14:35
2011 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:31:07 Samantha Warriner (NZL) 09:28:24
2012 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 03:55:03 Meredith Kessler (USA) 04:22:46
2013 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:15:35 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:17:10
2014 Marko Albert (EST) 08:17:33 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:08:46
2015 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:22:13 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:05:45
2016 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:07:58 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:56:08

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Cameron Brown NZL 00:48:37 04:29:13 02:44:54 08:07:58
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:53:11 04:25:11 02:45:51 08:09:37
3 Callum Millward NZL 00:46:49 04:31:13 02:48:01 08:10:57

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:47:49 04:56:40 03:06:03 08:56:08
2 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:55:45 04:51:39 03:12:10 09:05:08
3 Carrie Lester AUS 00:52:14 05:01:22 03:08:13 09:07:19

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:07:58 Cameron Brown 2016-03-05
Swim overall 00:44:26 Dylan McNeice 2015-03-07
Bike overall 04:22:13 Dougal Allan 2016-03-05
Run overall 02:41:20 Matt Hanson 2016-03-05
Total female 08:56:08 Meredith Kessler 2016-03-05
Swim female 00:46:30 Monica Byrn 2005-05-03
Bike female 04:51:39 Lucy Gossage 2016-03-05
Run female 02:59:10 Jess Draskau-Petersson 2004-03-06

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 05:55.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2007 08:39 00:56 -00:21 06:30 24 08:39 00:56 -00:21 06:30
2008 09:27 01:37 02:46 04:33 36 09:03 01:16 01:13 05:31
2009 08:06 -00:01 03:19 03:03 38 08:44 00:51 01:55 04:42
2010 06:18 01:04 04:33 03:28 22 08:07 00:54 02:34 04:23
2011 -02:24 00:31 00:28 -00:58 24 06:01 00:49 02:09 03:19
2013 01:37 00:43 04:14 01:08 24 05:17 00:48 02:30 02:57
2014 04:18 01:05 00:08 02:35 31 of 41 05:09 00:51 02:09 02:54
2015 07:50 01:13 03:03 05:36 22 of 27 05:29 00:53 02:16 03:14
2016 09:28 01:56 09:17 03:28 37 of 49 05:55 01:00 03:03 03:16

KPR points and Prize Money

IM New Zealand is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 80.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 4 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:14:06 08:18:37 00:49:11 04:28:30 02:51:25 62% +11% -27% (25) 4
2 1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:18:16 08:29:10 00:49:24 04:36:36 02:47:16 60% +1% -39% (33) 25
3 3 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:18:26 08:26:06 00:46:41 04:32:44 02:54:01 40% +27% -33% (12) 18
4 2 Marko Albert EST 08:21:52 08:33:04 00:45:46 04:34:30 02:56:36 94% +4% -2% (16) 33
5 5 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:26:09 08:32:02 00:49:54 04:34:08 02:57:07 75% +16% -9% (17) 28
6 10 Mark Bowstead NZL 08:35:27 08:54:17 00:47:19 04:36:54 03:06:14 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (107)
7 9 Per Bittner GER 08:37:22 08:41:55 00:48:51 04:42:28 03:01:02 57% +11% -32% (20) 71
8 19 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:39:42 08:56:02 00:50:35 04:41:19 03:02:48 36% +0% -64% (3) (114)
9 7 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:40:37 08:50:08 00:46:07 04:38:26 03:11:04 7% +18% -74% (9) 93
10 16 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:42:29 09:09:00 00:49:29 04:44:56 03:03:04 56% +24% -19% (17) 163
11 6 Braden Currie NZL 08:43:57 09:00:25 00:49:55 04:52:27 02:56:35 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (134)
12 25 Diego Van Looy BEL 08:48:27 08:59:40 01:04:51 04:47:14 02:51:21 100% +0% -0% (2) (131)
13 24 Carl Read NZL 08:50:35 09:06:05 00:51:42 04:54:25 02:59:28 67% +10% -23% (10) 155
14 17 Scott Defilippis USA 08:50:57 09:17:40 00:54:56 04:55:05 02:55:56 26% +23% -51% (23) 187
15 11 Guy Crawford NZL 08:51:19 09:15:58 00:47:50 04:38:05 03:20:25 42% +29% -28% (13) 182
16 8 Bryan Rhodes NZL 08:56:50 09:17:39 00:46:49 04:45:39 03:19:22 22% +0% -78% (27) (187)
17 13 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:59:25 09:34:08 00:44:54 04:53:34 03:15:56 18% +0% -82% (7) (228)
18 20 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:00:59 09:08:30 00:54:12 04:52:42 03:09:05 85% +0% -15% (8) 160
19 18 Guillaume Jeannin FRA 09:07:00 09:30:02 00:52:04 04:54:00 03:15:56 13% +22% -65% (6) (222)
20 15 Sam Clark NZL 09:12:08 09:20:31 00:55:49 04:56:48 03:14:32 24% +42% -33% (3) 194
21 22 Young Hwan Oh KOR 09:18:40 09:33:35 01:01:13 05:04:10 03:08:18 37% +38% -25% (6) 227
22 21 Samuel Murphy AUS 09:20:09 09:55:44 00:55:44 05:10:57 03:08:28 49% +0% -51% (2) (268)
23 12 Graham O’Grady NZL 09:25:34 09:49:25 00:45:01 04:47:47 03:47:46 56% +0% -44% (3) (258)
24 14 Allister Caird AUS 09:27:28 09:53:56 00:55:20 04:56:23 03:30:44 21% +0% -79% (4) (265)
23 Cameron Paul NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 31 Meredith Kessler USA 09:04:46 09:20:24 00:48:24 05:01:59 03:09:22 60% +10% -30% (26) 11
2 32 Carrie Lester AUS 09:12:17 09:25:23 00:53:05 05:05:03 03:09:09 57% +31% -12% (20) 18
3 33 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:14:20 09:16:20 00:57:09 05:00:26 03:11:45 77% +0% -23% (28) 6
4 36 Laura Siddall GBR 09:18:16 09:37:36 00:56:32 05:01:15 03:15:29 46% +44% -10% (8) 40
5 34 Annabel Luxford AUS 09:25:23 09:32:02 00:51:28 05:01:16 03:27:39 65% +0% -35% (4) 29
6 37 Emma Bilham SUI 09:26:34 09:44:46 00:53:29 05:12:43 03:15:23 64% +0% -36% (3) (52)
7 45 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:27:22 09:47:29 00:55:53 05:17:18 03:09:11 28% +30% -42% (5) 57
8 39 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:41:15 09:52:26 00:53:33 05:24:56 03:17:45 70% +0% -30% (10) (66)
9 35 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:44:10 10:11:07 00:54:47 05:19:03 03:25:20 22% +6% -72% (28) (99)
10 43 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:45:17 09:54:57 00:58:05 05:17:51 03:24:21 53% +0% -47% (12) 68
11 48 Vanessa Murray NZL 09:48:53 10:02:44 00:53:26 05:24:23 03:26:04 100% +0% -0% (3) 83
12 40 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:00:39 10:15:06 00:59:33 05:31:10 03:24:56 52% +36% -13% (14) 105
13 41 Yvette Grice GBR 10:02:27 10:08:08 00:55:59 05:36:03 03:25:25 71% +20% -9% (24) 94
14 44 Wendy McAlpine AUS 10:07:07 10:20:31 00:56:39 05:25:09 03:40:19 28% +0% -72% (2) (116)
15 38 Erin Furness NZL 10:08:10 10:24:40 01:00:36 05:31:31 03:31:02 61% +11% -28% (6) (120)
16 42 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:09:57 10:23:26 01:00:15 05:23:47 03:40:56 52% +7% -41% (12) 119
17 47 Tracy Morrison AUS 10:21:47 10:30:40 01:00:25 05:45:19 03:31:03 100% +0% -0% (3) 132
18 46 Jessica Mitchell AUS 10:37:45 10:57:47 01:01:03 05:38:04 03:53:38 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (146)
49 Fawn Whiting CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

After he had to cancel last year’s start at IM New Zealand just before boarding the plane, Marino Vanhoenacker will try to take the win, completing his collection of Ironman wins on all continents. He is my pre-race favorite, but he faces strong competition by twelve-time winner Cameron Brown and Terenzo Bozzone who seems to have unlocked the secret to fast Ironman racing after his 7:51 at Western Australia. 2014 winner Marco Albert and Cyril Viennot won’t be too far off the front either:

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 35% (2-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 24% (3-1)
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 24% (3-1)
  • Marko Albert: 10% (9-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 7% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

Meredith Kessler is again the pre-race favorite, she’s going for a “six-peat” after having won from 2012 to 2016. A win would also secure a Kona slot for her, allowing her to plan the year with a clear Kona focus. After finishing tenth in Kona a decent result (probably podium or better) would allow Carrie Lester to also plan her season without worrying about scoring more points. But Yvonne Van Vlerken and Laura Siddall (both backing up after Challenge Wanaka) will work hard to make things interesting with a strong bike. Jocelyn McCauley has won an IM before (IM Mallorca 2016), while some other strong racers (Emma Bilham, two time second place finisher in European IMs last year or Annabel Luxford who is still looking for her breakthrough IM performance) don’t even show up in the statistical odds but could easily finish at least on the podium:

  • Meredith Kessler: 51% (1-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 26% (3-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 10% (9-1)
  • Laura Siddall: 7% (14-1)
  • Jocelyn McCauley: 5% (18-1)

Wanaka – New Zealand Double

Last year there were nine athletes doing the Wanaka – New Zealand double at 14 days apart, five of them successful:

  • Gina Crawford DNF & 09:32:51
  • Laura Siddall 09:30:19 & 09:09:08
  • Dougal Allan 08:31:53 & 08:24:27
  • Dylan McNeice 09:10:29 & DNF
  • Matt Randall DNF & 09:49:37
  • Matthew Russell 08:42:53 & 08:15:25
  • Chris Sanson 09:16:59 & 08:53:38
  • Joe Skipper DNF & 08:09:37
  • Brad Williams 09:50:44 & 09:32:59

This year there are ten athletes attempting the double, eight of them have finished Wanaka:

  • Emma Bilham 09:30:39
  • Alyssa Godesky 09:58:58
  • Yvette Grice 10:45:01
  • Tamsyn Hayes 10:08:36
  • Laura Siddall 09:16:11
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken 09:15:44
  • Per Bittner DNF
  • Allister Caird 08:46:43
  • Simon Cochrane 08:48:45
  • Bryan Rhodes DNF
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Joanna Zeiger: The Champion Mindset

JZBook

Joanna Zeiger is one of the few triathletes who had great success across all distances. She surprised many when she qualified for the first Olympics in Sydney 2000, then almost medaled in fourth place. Less than five weeks later she finished fifth at the Ironman World Championships in Kona. She won two Ironman races (IM Brasil in 2005 and IM Coeur d’Alene in 2006) and was the 70.3 World Champion 2008.

Joanna is also academically accomplished, having earned a Ph.D. in Genetic Epidemiology from John Hopkins University in 2001. That’s not a field known for “touchy feely” science, so it was clear that her book “The Champions Mindset” wouldn’t focus on lighting candles, journaling, chanting or meditating. (The first three terms are not mentioned in the book at all; ‘meditation’ is referred to as ‘mindfulness’, a much more practical technique focused on the current moment.)

Joanna’s Pro racing career was cut short: She was in an life-altering accident while trying to defend her 70.3 title. In a bike aid station she was picking up a bottle but the volunteer didn’t let go, and she found herself on the ground having broken her collarbone and a couple of ribs. Her ribs never really healed, and she’s been suffering chronic pain ever since, sometimes rendering her unable to get out of bed for days. With this background you might expect another type of book, one that could be summed up with “toughen up, buttercup”. This is also NOT the book she wrote.

Instead Joanna has written a practical, readable and often personal guide on how to mentally approach your training and racing. She explores setting goals, letting others help you while keeping ownership, confidence, strategies during the race to achieve mind/body cohesion, overcoming obstacles and finding meaning. She presents the science behind the issues and discusses different strategies to deal with “roadblocks” on your way to better results. The book gives you a ton of ideas to think about. After Joanna was kind enough to send me an early copy, I’ve often referred to the book, both for myself and in chatting with some Professional athletes about the challenges they face. I’m sure that any athlete will benefit from the strategies and approaches discussed and that the book will give you pragmatic strategies to change your behavior in training and racing.

The book is available is available in paperback and eBook formats through Amazon (affiliate link) and in bookstores.

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Challenge Wanaka 2017 (Feb 18th) – Seeding

ChallengeWanaka

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2007 Luke Dragstra (CAN) 08:54:17 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:38:26
2008 Marc Pschebizin (GER) 08:47:49 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:33:46
2009 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:37:41 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:28:27
2010 Richard Ussher (NZL) 08:34:41 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:28:57
2011 Jamie Whyte (NZL) 09:03:53 Belinda Granger (AUS) 10:26:17
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:41:53 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:44:06
2013 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:51:18 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:24:31
2014 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:38:48 Candice Hammond (NZL) 09:33:54
2015 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:37:14 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:31:51
2016 Dougal Allan (NZL) 08:31:53 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:26:50

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Dougal Allan NZL 00:54:39 04:36:06 02:57:23 08:31:53
2 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:48:44 04:37:57 03:09:55 08:40:48
3 Matthew Russell USA 00:54:30 04:48:55 02:54:29 08:42:53

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:54:32 05:15:53 03:12:01 09:26:50
2 Laura Siddall GBR 00:54:31 05:12:29 03:19:05 09:30:19
3 Julia Grant NZL 00:58:39 06:03:13 03:32:45 10:39:42

Meredith Hill was third across the line with a time of 10:34, but racing as an Amateur.

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:31:53 Dougal Allan 2016-02-20
Swim overall 00:45:32 Dylan McNeice 2015-02-22
Bike overall 04:30:51 Dougal Allan 2015-02-22
Run overall 02:48:04 Marc Pschebizin 2008-01-19
Total female 09:24:31 Gina Crawford 2013-01-19
Swim female 00:50:01 Gina Crawford 2008-01-19
Bike female 05:08:30 Gina Crawford 2013-01-19
Run female 03:08:59 Rebekah Keat 2010-01-16

Dylan has posted a faster swim time in 2016 (43:30), but the swim course was a bit shortened due to the wind moving the buoys.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Wanaka is – 05:53.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Wanaka

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2007 03:50 00:42 -06:30 04:29 7 03:50 00:42 -06:30 04:29
2008 00:37 01:11 -09:42 01:33 16 of 17 02:13 00:56 -08:06 03:01
2009 04:38 -03:36 -01:31 03:57 12 of 13 03:02 -00:35 -05:55 03:20
2010 00:17 -01:47 -01:12 02:41 15 02:20 -00:53 -04:44 03:10
2011 -26:34 -02:44 -22:30 -03:42 15 -03:26 -01:15 -08:17 01:48
2012 -08:53 -01:11 -07:26 -03:22 19 -04:21 -01:14 -08:09 00:56
2013 -05:24 -05:42 -09:01 01:27 15 -04:30 -01:52 -08:16 01:00
2014 -03:40 -01:02 -03:28 00:36 10 of 18 -04:24 -01:46 -07:40 00:57
2015 -11:45 00:23 -04:29 -07:23 23 of 27 -05:13 -01:32 -07:19 00:02
2016 -11:56 01:43 -12:36 -01:21 15 of 23 -05:53 -01:12 -07:51 -00:06

Prize Money

Challenge Wanaka has a total prize purse of 70.000 NZD.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Dougal Allan NZL 08:32:22 08:36:44 00:59:24 04:31:45 02:56:13 76% +11% -13% (7) 50
2 3 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:38:01 08:36:05 00:49:01 04:36:59 03:07:01 66% +21% -13% (27) 45
3 5 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:47:20 08:43:42 00:51:34 04:51:52 02:58:53 67% +1% -31% (21) 74
4 2 Per Bittner GER 08:49:27 08:41:55 00:50:27 04:49:56 03:04:03 57% +11% -32% (20) 71
5 4 Luke Bell AUS 08:52:40 08:55:25 00:48:22 04:50:38 03:08:40 16% +3% -80% (32) 110
6 10 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:57:52 09:09:00 00:51:10 04:56:30 03:05:12 56% +24% -19% (17) 163
7 11 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:07:36 09:17:39 00:48:08 04:54:53 03:19:35 22% +0% -78% (27) (187)
8 9 Allister Caird AUS 09:29:19 09:53:56 00:57:10 05:06:39 03:20:30 21% +0% -79% (4) (265)
6 Mike Phillips NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
12 Nathan Miller AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 50 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:23:37 09:16:20 00:58:23 05:08:08 03:12:06 77% +0% -23% (28) 6
2 51 Laura Siddall GBR 09:28:31 09:37:36 00:57:49 05:08:43 03:16:59 46% +44% -10% (8) 40
3 62 Emma Bilham SUI 09:39:06 09:44:46 00:55:12 05:21:39 03:17:14 64% +0% -36% (3) (52)
4 61 Julia Viellehner GER 09:53:15 09:58:39 01:02:25 05:36:41 03:09:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (76)
5 54 Simone Maier GER 09:55:02 10:01:31 01:06:09 05:25:48 03:18:05 65% +0% -35% (8) (81)
6 59 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:56:44 09:52:26 00:55:37 05:35:55 03:20:12 70% +0% -30% (10) (66)
7 55 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:10:54 10:15:06 01:01:09 05:38:54 03:25:50 52% +36% -13% (14) 105
8 56 Yvette Grice GBR 10:15:46 10:08:08 00:57:47 05:45:38 03:27:21 71% +20% -9% (24) 94
9 57 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:16:55 10:23:26 01:01:24 05:29:17 03:41:14 52% +7% -41% (12) 119
10 53 Julia Grant NZL 10:23:41 10:19:07 01:00:36 05:48:20 03:29:45 29% +0% -71% (6) 112
11 60 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 10:59:54 10:56:55 01:14:23 05:52:36 03:47:55 72% +0% -28% (4) (146)
52 Meredith Hill AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
58 Bonnie Van Wilgenburg GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Last years’s winner (and course record holder) Douglas Allan is the statistical favorite for this year’s male race. After a disappointing result in Kona, Luke McKenzie will want to show his return to good form at Wanaka as a start to a better 2017 racing season. The field may be small, but on a a good day a lot of athletes could contend for the win.

  • Dougal Allan: 56% (1-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 24% (3-1)
  • Per Bittner: 7% (13-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 7% (14-1)
  • Simon Cochrane: 4% (27-1)
  • Luke Bell: 2% (40-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne Van Vlerken is the defending champion from 2016, she’s the clear front runner for this year as well. But last year she had to work hard to beat Laura Siddall who has been getting better and better since last year. Emma Bilham could be an interesting addition, she was second twice last summer at IM France and IM Switzerland but will need an excellent bike leg on the tough Wanaka course to be in contention:

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 66% (1-1)
  • Laura Siddall: 22% (4-1)
  • Emma Bilham: 8% (12-1)
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Updated Female Top 10 Ratings

The following is an excerpt from my “TriRating Report 2016”. You can find more details about the Report in this post or get your own free copy here. The full Top 10 Ratings (male and female, including for the individual legs) are posted here.

Rating Analysis 2016 – Female TOP 10

Here are the top ranked female athletes at the end of 2016, comparing the ranking and rating to the end of 2015:

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 (1) Daniela Ryf SUI 08:45:06 (-14:23) IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 8
2 (3) Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:02:01 (-6:11) IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 14
3 (-) Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 09:13:42 (n/a) IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 3
4 (19) Heather Jackson USA 09:14:57 (-9:20) IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 6
5 (-) Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:15:55 (n/a) IM Western Australia on 2016-12-04 4
6 (9) Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:16:20 (-1:11) IM Arizona on 2016-11-20 24
7 (13) Anja Beranek GER 09:16:56 (-2:22) IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 8
8 (12) Lucy Gossage GBR 09:17:08 (-1:14) IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 14
9 (15) Jodie Cunnama GBR 09:18:18 (-1:34) IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 9
10 (10) Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:19:32 (+1:44) IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 19

DaiBIkeKonaAfter continuing her domination in 2016, Daniela Ryf has not only defended her first place, but also extended the gap to second place. She now has a rating that is more than 15 minutes better than her closest follower.

(Photo: Daniela on the bike in Kona. Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

Mirinda Carfrae is the solid second place in my ranking. Her results this season – a lightning fast finish in Austria and a second place finish in Kona – have been great, but she’s probably frustrated that this year she wasn’t even close to Dani in Kona. I’m sure she and her coach Siri Lindley will have a close look at how to change that for next year.

The athlete in third is my “Rookie of the Year”, Kaisa Lehtonen. She’s raced three great IMs storming into the top ranks. Will she be able to continue to race at this high level in 2017 … or maybe get even faster?

Third place finisher in Kona is my fourth ranked athlete: Heather Jackson. She’s made steady progress this year, improving her rating by almost ten minutes with two great IM finishes in Lake Placid and Kona.

Melissa Hauschildt (#5) is another athlete in this year’s Top 10 that hasn’t been ranked last year. She’s been dealing with an injury for most of last year and was forced to withdraw from Kona. This year she qualified by winning the European Championships in Frankfurt, then DNF’d in Kona with muscular problems, followed by a sub-9 win in Western Australia. Hopefully she can stay healthy, then she’ll be a force to consider in each race she enters.

Even though Yvonne Van Vlerken (#6) gained three places in the rankings, she’s probably not fully satisfied with her season. She’s had some great results with a win at Challenge Wanaka and a third place at Challenge Roth, but her plans were focused on a good result in Kona – unfortunately she DNF’d when she didn’t have enough energy on the run. She quickly rebounded with a second place finish in Arizona, chasing Meredith Kessler for the whole day. She has already announced that she’s going to race Ironman Maastricht in August and Challenge Almere in September. It’s unlikely that she’ll race Kona 2017, my gues is that she’ll work to improve on her record of twelve sub-9 IM-distance finishes.

The next three athletes were just outside the Top 10 at the end of 2015: Anja Beranek (#7) had a great Kona race finishing fourth, proving she is one of the strongest women on the bike. Lucy Goossage (#8) was racing a lot this year, finishing second at IM New Zealand, third at IM South Africa and winning IM UK. Unfortunately, she broke her collarbone in the summer, but recovered just in time for Kona where she was able to race without too much pressure and even improved with a ninth place finish. For 2017 she’ll return to work as a doctor, and while she will continue to race as a Pro and is already targeting IM UK and IM Wales, she does not plan to return to Kona in 2017. Jodie Cunnama (#9) was having a great race at IM South Africa until she crashed when the camera helicopter was getting close. She recovered from a broken elbow with an emotional win at IM Cairns, the Regional Championships for Australia. At Kona she was close to the front for most of the day, but had to walk the last part of the run just to be able to finish. With the way she races, she is a contender for the win in any race she enters.

Mary Beth Ellis (#10) has won two Ironman races in her last season as a Pro at IM Netherlands and Mont Tremblant after suffering from Lyme’s disease in the summer. In her last Kona Pro race, she was in the Top 10 almost until the end, it was only in the last six miles from the Energy Lab to the finish that she dropped back from eighth place to 14th at the end. Now she wants to focus on growing her family, but it would be great to see her stay involved in long-distance triathlon.

A number of athletes have dropped from the Top 10. Rachel Joyce (was #2) and Eva Wutti (was #6) have had children and are likely to return to racing in 2017. Caroline Steffen (was #4) has raced shorter distances, it would be great to see her tackle Ironman racing again. Liz Blatchford (was #5) struggled with injuries and couldn’t race, now she has announced that she’s pregnant. Susie Cheetham (was #7, now #15) DNF’d in Kona, as did Julia Gajer (was #10, now #16), who has only finished IM Texas which was on a shortened course. Both are already working hard to return to Kona 2017 and a good performance there.

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