IM Lanzarote 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Lanzarote is one of the classic IM races – similar to Kona as it is held on a volcanic island with often very hard conditions. It has a course rating of –3:05, meaning it is a bit slower than IM Hawaii. Last year’s winners were Timo Bracht (in a course record of 8:30:34) and Rachel Joyce (9:28:12 – not sure if this is the female course record, my results only go back to 2005 and this is the fastest time I have).

Male Participants

There is no rockstar name on the list, but a few second-tier athletes will look for a prestigious IM win:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	08:50:10	08:47:10	69
2	Esben Hovgaard	DNK	08:51:34	08:48:33	83
3	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	08:53:31	08:50:30	90
4	Bert Jammaer	BEL	09:00:25	08:57:21	118
5	Philip Graves	GBR	09:00:32	08:57:28	120
6	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:00:35	08:57:31	121
7	Simon Billeau	FRA	09:04:23	09:01:18	145
8	Patrick Jaberg	SWI	09:05:49	09:02:43	151
9	Domenico Passuello	ITA	09:08:11	09:05:05	162
10	Sergio Marques	PRT	09:09:02	09:05:55	169
11	Alvaro Velazquez	ESP	09:19:59	09:16:49	245
12	Ueli Bieler	SUI	09:24:56	09:21:44	296
13	Xavier Diepart	BEL	09:27:04	09:23:51	307
14	Nicholas Peter Munoz	ESP	09:27:11	09:23:58	308
15	Oliver Simon	GBR	09:34:02	09:30:47	365
16	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:47:21	09:44:01	449
17	Fernando Cuenllas	ESP	09:58:04	09:54:41	525
18	Victor Del Corral	ESP	n/a	unrated	n/a
19	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	n/a	unrated	n/a
20	Bryan Mccrystal	IRE	n/a	unrated	n/a
21	Till Schramm	GER	n/a	unrated	n/a
22	David Vazquez	ESP	n/a	unrated	n/a
23	Antonio Cardona	ESP	n/a	unrated	n/a
24	Remy Vasseur	NED	n/a	unrated	n/a
25	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	n/a	unrated	n/a

Here are the winning odds:

• Bert Jammaer: 30%
• Kirill Kotshegarov: 18%
• Stephen Bayliss: 18%
• Philip Graves: 11%
• Petr Vabrousek: 9%

Kirill Kotshegarov may be the best ranked athlete, but he doesn’t have the experience of a Bert Jammaer or a Stephen Bayliss that might be necessary for winning on such a tough course. Philip Graves comes back to IM racing after a two season hiatus – and if these athletes run into issues, “I hate to train so I just race” Petr Vabrousek will be there with a solid result. He has raced more than 50 IMs, but I don’t know if he has ever won one (I don’t have one in my results). Maybe this year in Lanzarote?

For a while it looked as if Andi Böcherer would be a late addition to the race after his DNF in South Africa. He tweeted that he would start, but then decided to take some more time to recover properly.

Female Participants

On the female side, there are also no rockstars, but quite a few solid racers:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Michelle Vesterby	DNK	09:30:26	09:27:12	10
2	Bella Bayliss	GBR	09:44:56	09:41:37	39
3	Heleen Bij De Vaate	NLD	09:51:33	09:48:12	55
4	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:22:30	10:18:58	153
5	Katya Meyers	USA	10:24:05	10:20:33	160
6	Christine Hemphill	AUS	10:30:53	10:27:19	181
7	Ute Streiter	AUT	10:35:58	10:32:22	191
8	Zsuzsanna Harsanyi	HUN	11:09:32	11:05:44	248
9	Tine Holst	DEN	n/a	unrated	n/a
10	Carla Van Rooijen	NED	n/a	unrated	n/a
11	Saleta Castro	ESP	n/a	unrated	n/a
12	Melina de Monserratt	PRU	n/a	unrated	n/a
13	Christine Waitz	GER	n/a	unrated	n/a

The winning odds show a picture that is a bit different:

• Heleen Bij De Vaate: 32%
• Michelle Vesterby: 29%
• Bella Bayliss: 27%

Three potential winners, each with a different background: Michelle Vesterby has not yet raced a lot (but managed to post a few fast times), Heleen Bij de Vaate is a very solid racer (even if she doesn’t yet have the speed to win Kona) and Bella Bayliss coming back after having a baby,

IM Texas 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Last year was the first time IM Texas was held. The course rating is 5:47 – comparable to South Africa or New Zealand. The premier winner on the men’s side was Eneko Llanos in 8:08:20 (followed by Tim O’Donnell and Luke Bell) and on the women’s side Catriona Morrison in 8:57:51.

Male Participants

As last year (when it was the US Championships and a 400 points race), IM Texas managed to draw a pretty strong field (even if it “only” a 2000 points race):

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Rasmus Henning	DNK	08:22:30	08:27:56	10
2	Jordan Rapp	USA	08:25:23	08:30:51	14
3	Paul Amey	GBR	08:28:28	08:33:58	20
4	Maxim Kriat	UKR	08:29:13	08:34:44	24
5	Mathias Hecht	SWI	08:36:12	08:41:47	40
6	Torsten Abel	GER	08:39:47	08:45:24	57
7	Jozsef Major	HUN	08:42:40	08:48:19	80
8	Justin Daerr	USA	08:45:54	08:51:35	93
9	Kevin Taddonio	USA	08:53:14	08:59:00	129
10	Christian Brader	GER	08:55:29	09:01:17	146
11	Matthew Russell	USA	09:01:22	09:07:13	175
12	Brandon Marsh	USA	09:02:20	09:08:12	183
13	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:02:26	09:08:18	185
14	Mike Schifferle	SWI	09:08:47	09:14:43	228
15	Erich Kunz	SUI	09:11:52	09:17:50	259
16	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:17:51	09:23:53	308
17	Toby Radcliffe	GBR	09:18:22	09:24:24	313
18	Olly Piggin	CAN	09:19:17	09:25:20	316
19	Anthony Toth	CAN	09:24:31	09:30:38	361
20	Jesse Vondracek	USA	09:27:47	09:33:56	381
21	Mac Brown	USA	09:38:31	09:44:47	457
22	Sergio Quezada	MEX	10:07:21	10:13:55	647
23	Jim Lamastra		n/a	unrated	n/a
24	Robert Wade		n/a	unrated	n/a
25	Benoit Bourguet		n/a	unrated	n/a
26	Jonathan Shearon		n/a	unrated	n/a
27	Alex Weber		n/a	unrated	n/a

Here are the winning odds:

• Jordan Rapp: 33%
• Paul Amey: 26%
• Rasmus Henning: 23%
• Maxim Kriat: 6%
• Mathias Hecht: 6%

Rasmus Henning is the top rated athlete, but he has had some weaker results on the IM distance (especially in Hawaii) which hurt his winning odds. However, he seems to have figured out some of the issues that were plaguing him, as evidenced by his win in Abu Dhabi. Still, I would consider Jordan Rapp as the favorite for the race. He has recovered well from his horrendous bike accident as has shown great form in Wildflower. Paul Amey will be able to show that his strong IM Arizona (when he pushed Eneko Llanos to the finish and nearly managed to go sub-8) was not a fluke. Maxim Kriat is another interesting athlete with a lot of potential. He comes from a short-course background and did IM Floria in 2009 and 2011, both times finishing second. Then there is Mathias Hecht, the winner of St. George in 2011. Lots of potential winners!

Female Participants

On the women’s side, the field mostly comes from the USA:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:15:28	09:21:29	7
2	Kathleen Calkins	USA	09:20:26	09:26:30	10
3	Amy Marsh	USA	09:24:46	09:30:53	20
4	Caitlin Snow	USA	09:32:12	09:38:23	35
5	Corinne Abraham	USA	09:43:36	09:49:55	59
6	Caroline Gregory	USA	10:01:51	10:08:22	115
7	Charisa Wernick	USA	10:05:46	10:12:19	133
8	Sarah Piampiano		10:06:25	10:12:59	135
9	Marilyn McDonald	CAN	10:14:07	10:20:46	163
10	Cindy Lewis		10:20:53	10:27:36	182
11	Tami Ritchie		10:34:55	10:41:47	211
12	Amanda McKenzie	USA	10:52:52	10:59:56	242
13	Sandra Soldan		n/a	unrated	n/a
14	Jackie Pearce		n/a	unrated	n/a

The winning odds for the females look as follows:

• Mary Beth Ellis: 40%
• Amy Marsh: 27%
• Caitlin Snow: 18%
• Kathleen Calkins: 11%

Mary Beth Ellis is the clear favorite – after winning three Ironman races last summer to qualify for Kona, she hopefully manages to qualify in fewer races this year so she can properly prepare for Kona. Amy Marsh also has three Ironman wins to her name , while Caitlin Snow will look to win her first one. Kathleen Calkins is a name that most people will not be familiar with – she only has one Ironman pro result (a 7th place in IM Arizona 2011 in 9:12), but she has a lot of experience racing as an age grouper and winning the F30-34 age group in Hawaii.

Corrections:

• Amy pointed out on Twitter she has four IM wins – I missed IM China which I don’t have in my results.
• As Cait pointed out on twitter, she has won an Ironman before: She won IM Lake Placid under her maiden name of “Shea-Kenney”. I have now connected these two “dots” in my data, but it doesn’t really change my predictions.

Thanks to Amy and Cait for pointing out these errors – and sorry for missing your wins.

IM Lanzarote 2012 – Predictions (Detail Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	08:49:58	08:46:57	67
2	Esben Hovgaard	DNK	08:51:19	08:48:18	79
3	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	08:53:31	08:50:29	90
4	Philip Graves	GBR	09:00:24	08:57:20	118
5	Bert Jammaer	BEL	09:00:25	08:57:21	119
6	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:00:32	08:57:28	120
7	Simon Billeau	FRA	09:04:15	09:01:10	145
8	Patrick Jaberg		09:05:49	09:02:43	151
9	Domenico Passuello	ITA	09:08:14	09:05:07	162
10	Sergio Marques	PRT	09:08:57	09:05:50	169
11	Alvaro Velazquez		09:20:03	09:16:52	245
12	Ueli Bieler	SUI	09:24:54	09:21:42	296
13	Xavier Diepart	BEL	09:27:02	09:23:49	307
14	Nicholas Peter Munoz	ESP	09:27:08	09:23:55	309
15	Oliver Simon		09:34:07	09:30:51	366
16	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:47:20	09:44:00	449
17	Fernando Cuenllas		09:58:05	09:54:41	525
18	Victor Del Corral		n/a	unrated	n/a
19	Ludovic Le Guellec		n/a	unrated	n/a
20	Bryan Mccrystal		n/a	unrated	n/a
21	Till Schramm		n/a	unrated	n/a
22	David Vazquez		n/a	unrated	n/a
23	Remy Vasseur		n/a	unrated	n/a
24	Daniel Halksworth		n/a	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Michelle Vesterby	DNK	09:30:06	09:26:52	10
2	Bella Bayliss	GBR	09:44:56	09:41:37	40
3	Heleen Bij De Vaate	NLD	09:51:38	09:48:16	57
4	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:22:31	10:18:59	154
5	Katya Meyers	USA	10:24:03	10:20:30	162
6	Christine Hemphill	AUS	10:30:51	10:27:16	182
7	Ute Streiter		10:36:00	10:32:23	192
8	Zsuzsanna Harsanyi	HUN	11:09:25	11:05:37	249
9	Tine Holst		n/a	unrated	n/a
10	Carla Van Rooijen		n/a	unrated	n/a
11	Saleta Castro		n/a	unrated	n/a
12	Melina de Monserratt		n/a	unrated	n/a
13	Christine Waitz		n/a	unrated	n/a

Results for Kirill Kotshegarov (EST)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM St. George	2010-05-01	08:58:19	08:53:04	08:46:57	4
IM Florida	2009-11-07	08:24:29	08:39:55	08:39:55	1

Results for Esben Hovgaard (DNK)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Melbourne	2012-03-24	08:38:51	08:47:29	08:48:18	16
IM Lanzarote	2011-05-21	08:54:37	08:49:55	08:48:51	3
IM Florida	2010-11-06	08:31:29	08:47:37	08:47:37	8

Results for Stephen Bayliss (GBR)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Austria	2011-07-03	08:16:47	08:42:13	08:50:29	5
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28	09:04:07	09:14:48	08:51:14	18
IM UK	2010-08-01	08:46:19	08:52:33	08:49:17	2
IM Austria	2010-07-04	08:31:07	08:47:37	08:49:01	6
IM South Africa	2010-04-25	08:40:28	08:48:09	08:49:09	5
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:19:56	09:14:52	08:49:14	45
IM UK	2009-08-02	08:48:30	08:45:32	08:47:08	2
IM Austria	2009-07-05	08:17:06	08:32:28	08:47:16	3
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	09:02:15	08:59:22	08:48:36	5
IM South Africa	2009-04-05	08:47:26	08:58:47	08:47:34	4
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	08:38:29	08:46:15	08:46:26	6
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:49:38	08:47:29	08:46:28	18
IM UK	2008-09-07	08:53:59	08:52:29	08:46:21	1
IM Austria	2008-07-13	08:13:53	08:29:58	08:45:38	2
IM South Africa	2008-04-13	08:18:23	08:27:35	08:47:37	1
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	08:37:03	08:44:01	08:50:17	4
IM Western Australia	2007-12-01	08:17:50	08:33:39	08:51:13	5
IM Florida	2007-11-03	08:30:59	08:46:06	08:54:01	4
IM UK	2007-08-19	08:38:09	08:43:42	08:55:29	2
IM Brasil	2007-05-27	08:37:03	08:47:57	08:57:59	5
IM Florida	2006-11-04	08:43:41	08:51:01	09:00:27	4
IM Arizona	2006-04-09	09:00:38	09:01:38	09:02:58	14
IM Brasil	2006-01-01	08:35:01	08:41:10	09:03:21	4
IM Florida	2005-11-05	08:47:06	08:49:17	09:11:33	6
IM UK	2005-08-21	09:15:14	09:01:57	09:23:45	4
IM Lanzarote	2005-06-04	09:46:55	09:46:55	09:46:55	12

Results for Philip Graves (GBR)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:16:02	09:11:00	08:57:20	41
IM UK	2009-08-02	08:45:52	08:42:55	08:42:55	1

Results for Bert Jammaer (BEL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Canada	2011-08-28	08:42:34	08:46:28	08:57:21	3
IM Germany	2011-07-24	08:32:26	08:43:58	08:59:13	8
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	09:41:51	09:43:02	09:02:16	54
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	08:39:36	08:37:38	08:54:32	2
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:41:13	08:36:30	08:58:00	16
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	08:54:03	08:51:12	09:02:27	1
IM Florida	2008-11-01	09:43:19	10:03:49	09:05:01	38
IM Lanzarote	2008-05-24	08:59:40	08:57:06	08:50:52	1
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	08:35:53	08:35:34	08:49:11	12
IM Lanzarote	2007-05-20	09:05:09	09:02:57	08:53:09	4
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	09:01:47	08:57:48	08:49:42	39
IM Austria	2006-07-16	08:22:48	08:33:31	08:46:17	5
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	08:53:16	08:52:44	08:54:30	30
IM Switzerland	2005-07-15	08:51:58	08:56:24	08:56:24	6

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM South Africa	2012-04-22	09:09:57	09:04:04	08:57:28	6
IM Melbourne	2012-03-24	08:29:25	08:37:53	08:57:10	13
Challenge Wanaka	2012-01-21	09:15:21	09:10:23	08:58:03	6
IM Western Australia	2011-12-04	08:35:08	08:43:32	08:57:29	6
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	09:13:42	09:15:22	08:58:08	30
IM Texas	2011-05-21	08:37:59	08:43:32	08:57:20	9
IM St. George	2011-05-07	09:11:11	09:11:25	08:57:56	9
IM South Africa	2011-04-10	08:40:36	08:52:13	08:57:19	8
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	08:58:30	08:59:43	08:57:33	6
Challenge Wanaka	2011-01-15	09:27:44	09:29:35	08:57:27	5
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28	08:39:52	08:50:04	08:55:57	8
IM Florida	2010-11-06	08:29:59	08:46:04	08:56:14	7
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:56:26	08:57:32	08:56:43	41
IM Canada	2010-08-29	08:39:16	08:46:53	08:56:41	4
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	08:46:33	08:50:57	08:57:11	2
IM Brasil	2010-05-30	08:36:15	08:52:32	08:57:30	6
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:09:43	09:04:21	08:57:46	6
Challenge Wanaka	2010-01-16	09:00:08	09:00:41	08:57:25	4
IM Western Australia	2009-12-05	08:57:08	09:12:56	08:57:14	10
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	08:37:45	08:47:04	08:56:24	10
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:23:03	09:17:57	08:56:55	48
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	09:08:26	09:06:32	08:55:43	7
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	09:10:24	09:09:47	08:55:05	6
Challenge Roth	2009-07-12	08:15:03	08:34:59	08:54:11	10
IM Brasil	2009-05-31	08:37:18	08:50:06	08:55:25	3
IM South Africa	2009-04-05	08:36:07	08:47:13	08:55:46	3
Challenge Wanaka	2009-01-01	08:44:38	08:50:17	08:56:20	2
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	08:28:09	08:34:48	08:56:44	8
IM Florida	2008-11-01	08:23:00	08:40:41	08:58:14	3
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:04:42	09:02:29	08:59:31	31
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	08:55:20	08:54:10	08:59:17	2
IM Switzerland	2008-07-13	08:53:05	09:05:32	08:59:41	6
IM Brasil	2008-05-25	08:53:58	09:03:19	08:59:11	4
IM Australia	2008-04-06	09:11:11	09:14:01	08:58:50	11
Challenge Wanaka	2008-01-19	09:09:36	09:13:01	08:57:26	6
IM Western Australia	2007-12-01	08:27:15	08:43:22	08:55:58	10
IM Florida	2007-11-03	08:53:05	09:08:52	08:57:14	21
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:42:26	09:42:05	08:55:58	56
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	10:58:00	10:59:48	08:50:29	22
IM Germany	2007-07-01	08:22:31	08:36:25	08:50:29	5
IM Brasil	2007-05-27	08:40:42	08:51:41	08:52:13	6
IM Arizona	2007-04-15	08:41:59	08:44:53	08:52:18	4
IM South Africa	2007-03-18	08:48:19	08:47:23	08:53:25	4
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	09:10:45	09:06:42	08:54:28	47
IM Lake Placid	2006-07-23	09:03:12	08:55:50	08:52:14	7
IM Arizona	2006-04-09	08:44:54	08:45:52	08:51:29	8
IM South Africa	2006-03-18	08:38:52	08:40:31	08:52:48	3
IM Western Australia	2005-11-27	08:36:05	08:38:20	08:56:27	5
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	09:12:17	09:11:44	09:33:57	50
IM Wisconsin	2005-09-11	11:19:03	11:00:54	09:42:05	23
IM Brasil	2005-05-28	09:06:45	09:06:45	08:58:25	6
IM Arizona	2005-04-09	08:49:46	08:49:46	08:49:46	4

Results for Simon Billeau (FRA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Melbourne	2012-03-24	09:25:22	09:34:46	09:01:10	33
IM Western Australia	2011-12-04	08:38:06	08:46:33	08:53:26	8
IM Germany	2011-07-24	08:43:58	08:55:45	08:55:16	11
IM Western Australia	2010-12-05	08:40:37	08:52:27	08:55:07	8
IM South Africa	2010-04-25	08:53:49	09:01:41	08:56:04	8
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:14:07	09:09:06	08:53:39	38
IM France	2009-06-28	08:46:30	08:53:00	08:44:35	3
IM Western Australia	2008-12-07	08:20:32	08:34:43	08:34:43	5

Results for Patrick Jaberg ()

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:33:50	08:46:42	09:02:43	14
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	09:10:03	09:07:58	09:10:40	9
IM Switzerland	2009-07-12	08:47:51	09:00:34	09:11:57	7
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	09:16:44	09:13:46	09:18:43	11
IM Lanzarote	2008-05-24	09:28:01	09:25:19	09:25:19	13

Results for Domenico Passuello (ITA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM UK	2011-07-31	08:51:52	09:02:44	09:05:07	4
IM France	2011-06-26	09:03:34	09:07:35	09:07:35	7

Results for Sergio Marques (PRT)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Melbourne	2012-03-24	08:54:14	09:03:07	09:05:50	20
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	09:18:26	09:20:07	09:06:08	33
IM Germany	2011-07-24	08:57:53	09:09:59	09:04:37	16
IM Switzerland	2011-07-10	08:48:01	09:02:01	09:04:00	6
IM France	2011-06-26	08:49:55	08:53:50	09:04:15	5
IM Texas	2011-05-21	08:48:57	08:54:37	09:05:45	12
IM South Africa	2011-04-10	09:09:30	09:21:46	09:07:32	15
IM Louisville	2010-08-29	09:05:04	09:07:59	09:04:54	5
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:11:10	09:05:47	09:04:20	7
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:41:02	09:35:47	09:04:03	60
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	09:08:38	09:05:43	08:57:30	8
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:47:16	09:44:53	08:55:38	57
IM Louisville	2008-08-27	08:59:16	08:56:02	08:44:05	3
IM Florida	2007-11-03	08:23:49	08:38:44	08:40:36	2
IM Austria	2007-07-08	08:36:05	08:46:42	08:41:10	7
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	08:40:32	08:36:43	08:39:04	19
IM Arizona	2006-04-09	08:31:26	08:32:23	08:40:07	5
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	08:43:45	08:43:14	08:44:53	20
IM Arizona	2005-04-09	08:46:47	08:46:47	08:46:47	3

Results for Alvaro Velazquez ()

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	09:09:16	09:07:11	09:16:52	8
IM Austria	2008-07-13	09:21:22	09:39:39	09:22:58	23
Challenge Roth	2007-06-24	08:51:26	09:12:55	09:13:14	16
Challenge Roth	2006-06-24	08:58:44	09:11:35	09:13:28	25
IM Switzerland	2005-07-15	09:11:21	09:15:57	09:15:57	13

Results for Ueli Bieler (SUI)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Switzerland	2011-07-10	09:07:08	09:21:38	09:21:42	9
IM Switzerland	2010-07-25	09:12:39	09:23:59	09:21:44	18
IM Switzerland	2009-07-12	08:50:24	09:03:10	09:20:35	9
IM Switzerland	2008-07-13	09:11:17	09:24:09	09:31:19	15
IM Switzerland	2007-06-24	09:19:58	09:33:30	09:37:29	15
IM Switzerland	2005-07-15	09:39:36	09:44:26	09:44:26	17

Results for Xavier Diepart (BEL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM France	2010-06-27	09:06:54	09:20:35	09:23:49	7
IM France	2007-06-24	09:23:37	09:31:56	09:28:07	12
IM UK	2006-08-16	09:21:01	09:23:15	09:23:15	12

Results for Nicholas Peter Munoz (ESP)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote	2011-05-21	09:02:44	08:57:58	09:23:55	5
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	08:58:55	08:56:53	09:32:19	6
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	10:22:35	10:16:57	09:43:40	70
IM UK	2009-08-02	09:12:47	09:09:41	09:31:27	5
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	09:22:10	09:19:10	09:43:04	13
IM Lanzarote	2007-05-20	10:06:27	10:04:00	10:07:24	22
IM Lanzarote	2006-05-20	10:16:37	10:11:57	10:11:57	25

Results for Oliver Simon ()

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	09:26:33	09:40:44	09:30:51	38
IM Wales	2011-09-11	09:54:43	09:45:02	09:25:32	11
IM UK	2011-07-31	08:54:28	09:05:23	09:05:23	5

Results for Eneko Elosegui (ESP)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	08:54:57	09:06:52	09:44:00	13
IM UK	2010-08-01	09:38:53	09:45:44	09:52:01	7
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	09:21:08	09:19:01	09:53:34	14
IM UK	2009-08-02	09:36:48	09:33:33	10:04:03	12
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	09:59:58	09:56:46	10:13:44	26
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	10:44:38	10:54:18	10:21:02	24
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	10:00:09	09:58:50	09:58:28	17
IM UK	2007-08-19	09:51:39	09:57:59	09:57:59	23

Results for Fernando Cuenllas ( )

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote	2011-05-21	09:59:58	09:54:41	09:54:41	13

Results for Victor Del Corral ()

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Results for Ludovic Le Guellec ()

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Results for Bryan Mccrystal ()

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Results for Till Schramm ()

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Results for David Vazquez ()

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Results for Remy Vasseur ()

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Results for Daniel Halksworth ()

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Results for Michelle Vesterby (DNK)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Melbourne	2012-03-24	09:19:05	09:28:23	09:26:52	9
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	09:11:23	09:25:11	09:25:11	5

Results for Bella Bayliss (GBR)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM UK	2010-08-01	10:06:52	10:14:03	09:41:37	2
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	10:16:47	10:14:27	09:38:48	3
IM Cozumel	2009-11-29	09:22:34	09:28:27	09:35:36	1
IM Florida	2009-11-07	09:13:52	09:30:49	09:36:12	3
IM UK	2009-08-02	09:34:00	09:30:46	09:36:42	1
IM Austria	2009-07-05	08:50:13	09:06:36	09:37:14	1
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	09:54:58	09:51:48	09:40:16	1
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	09:41:04	09:49:46	09:39:03	5
IM Florida	2008-11-01	09:07:48	09:27:03	09:37:52	1
IM UK	2008-09-07	09:49:07	09:47:27	09:39:04	1
IM Austria	2008-07-13	08:51:17	09:08:36	09:38:04	2
IM Lanzarote	2008-05-24	10:02:30	09:59:38	09:41:51	1
IM South Africa	2008-04-13	09:27:48	09:38:17	09:39:21	1
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	09:25:33	09:33:10	09:39:31	4
IM Florida	2007-11-03	09:13:34	09:29:57	09:40:40	4
IM UK	2007-08-19	09:36:13	09:42:23	09:42:46	1
IM Brasil	2007-05-27	09:20:10	09:31:59	09:42:51	3
IM South Africa	2007-03-18	09:48:41	09:47:38	09:45:47	3
IM Florida	2006-11-04	09:28:28	09:36:26	09:45:08	1
IM Brasil	2006-01-01	09:39:14	09:46:09	09:49:01	4
IM Florida	2005-11-05	09:33:09	09:35:31	09:50:34	1
IM UK	2005-08-21	10:21:25	10:06:33	10:06:33	3

Results for Heleen Bij De Vaate (NLD)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	10:35:58	10:37:53	09:48:16	24
IM Germany	2011-07-24	09:32:51	09:45:44	09:40:29	9
IM Austria	2011-07-03	08:56:11	09:23:38	09:39:34	4
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:29:15	09:41:56	09:42:50	8
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	09:27:02	09:28:11	09:43:01	9
IM Switzerland	2010-07-25	09:23:50	09:35:24	09:46:43	2
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	09:21:06	09:28:26	09:50:12	1
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	10:12:00	10:09:30	09:55:20	24
IM Lanzarote	2008-05-24	10:12:10	10:09:16	09:51:10	2
IM Florida	2007-11-03	09:07:40	09:23:53	09:44:40	2
IM South Africa	2007-03-18	09:58:25	09:57:21	09:53:49	5
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	09:42:12	09:37:55	09:51:46	13
IM Germany	2006-07-23	09:55:14	10:06:38	10:06:38	6

Results for Nicole Woysch (GER)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Austria	2011-07-03	09:23:31	09:52:22	10:18:59	8
IM Lanzarote	2011-05-21	10:52:01	10:46:17	10:24:58	6
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28	09:49:44	10:01:18	10:19:03	5
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	10:51:20	10:52:40	10:24:43	40
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	10:11:18	10:08:59	10:12:22	2
IM Austria	2009-07-05	09:29:37	09:47:13	10:14:34	5
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	10:46:19	10:42:52	10:42:52	8

Results for Katya Meyers (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	10:10:28	10:12:24	10:20:30	5
IM France	2011-06-26	10:07:04	10:11:33	10:21:56	7
IM France	2010-06-27	10:02:12	10:17:16	10:24:00	6
IM Florida	2009-11-07	09:35:53	09:53:30	10:25:10	8
IM Canada	2009-08-30	10:12:59	10:17:43	10:30:36	10
IM France	2009-06-28	09:58:30	10:05:53	10:33:06	6
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	10:23:01	10:20:29	10:39:16	28
IM Louisville	2008-08-27	11:00:22	10:56:24	10:43:30	11
IM France	2008-06-22	10:28:06	10:36:03	10:39:55	5
IM Australia	2007-04-08	10:24:36	10:28:45	10:41:18	13
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	11:33:39	11:17:32	10:45:35	12
IM France	2006-06-24	10:18:41	10:27:53	10:32:34	4
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	10:48:46	10:48:07	10:35:29	39
IM Canada	2005-08-29	10:24:49	10:22:23	10:22:23	10

Results for Christine Hemphill (AUS)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM France	2011-06-26	10:22:40	10:27:16	10:27:16	10

Results for Ute Streiter ( )

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Regensburg	2011-08-07	10:20:34	10:34:38	10:32:23	6
IM Germany	2009-07-05	09:47:00	10:07:19	10:30:45	7
IM Germany	2008-07-06	10:03:03	10:26:17	10:46:20	12
IM UK	2006-08-16	11:30:51	11:33:36	11:06:21	9
IM Austria	2005-07-03	10:28:45	10:28:45	10:28:45	11

Results for Zsuzsanna Harsanyi (HUN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM UK	2010-08-01	11:31:29	11:39:40	11:05:37	5
IM St. George	2010-05-01	12:12:04	12:04:55	10:56:58	11
IM France	2009-06-28	11:07:25	11:15:39	10:35:59	14
IM Switzerland	2008-07-13	10:07:34	10:21:45	10:23:17	8
IM Brasil	2008-05-25	10:18:06	10:28:55	10:23:47	5
IM South Africa	2007-03-18	10:34:29	10:33:21	10:21:29	8
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	10:18:56	10:14:23	10:15:58	35
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	10:39:52	10:39:14	10:17:06	38
IM Brasil	2005-05-28	09:52:23	09:52:23	09:52:23	4

Results for Tine Holst ()

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Results for Carla Van Rooijen ()

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Results for Saleta Castro ()

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Results for Melina de Monserratt ()

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Results for Christine Waitz ()

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IM Texas 2012 – Predictions (Detail Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Rasmus Henning	DNK	08:22:30	08:27:56	10
2	Jordan Rapp	USA	08:25:23	08:30:51	14
3	Paul Amey	GBR	08:28:28	08:33:58	20
4	Maxim Kriat	UKR	08:29:13	08:34:44	24
5	Mathias Hecht	SWI	08:36:12	08:41:47	40
6	Torsten Abel	GER	08:39:47	08:45:24	57
7	Jozsef Major	HUN	08:42:40	08:48:19	80
8	Justin Daerr	USA	08:45:54	08:51:35	93
9	Kevin Taddonio	USA	08:53:14	08:59:00	129
10	Christian Brader	GER	08:55:29	09:01:17	146
11	Matthew Russell	USA	09:01:22	09:07:13	175
12	Brandon Marsh	USA	09:02:20	09:08:12	183
13	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:02:26	09:08:18	185
14	Mike Schifferle	SWI	09:08:47	09:14:43	228
15	Erich Kunz	SUI	09:11:52	09:17:50	259
16	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:17:51	09:23:53	308
17	Toby Radcliffe	GBR	09:18:22	09:24:24	313
18	Olly Piggin	CAN	09:19:17	09:25:20	316
19	Anthony Toth	CAN	09:24:31	09:30:38	361
20	Jesse Vondracek	USA	09:27:47	09:33:56	381
21	Mac Brown	USA	09:38:31	09:44:47	457
22	Sergio Quezada	MEX	10:07:21	10:13:55	647
23	Jim Lamastra		n/a	unrated	n/a
24	Robert Wade		n/a	unrated	n/a
25	Benoit Bourguet		n/a	unrated	n/a
26	Jonathan Shearon		n/a	unrated	n/a
27	Alex Weber		n/a	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:15:28	09:21:29	7
2	Kathleen Calkins	USA	09:20:26	09:26:30	10
3	Amy Marsh	USA	09:24:46	09:30:53	20
4	Caitlin Snow	USA	09:32:12	09:38:23	35
5	Corinne Abraham		09:43:36	09:49:55	59
6	Caroline Gregory	USA	10:01:51	10:08:22	115
7	Charisa Wernick	USA	10:05:46	10:12:19	133
8	Sarah Piampiano		10:06:25	10:12:59	135
9	Marilyn McDonald	CAN	10:14:07	10:20:46	163
10	Cindy Lewis		10:20:53	10:27:36	182
11	Tami Ritchie		10:34:55	10:41:47	211
12	Amanda McKenzie	USA	10:52:52	10:59:56	242
13	Sandra Soldan		n/a	unrated	n/a
14	Jackie Pearce		n/a	unrated	n/a

Results for Rasmus Henning (DNK)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	08:35:53	08:37:26	08:27:56	14
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	08:10:58	08:21:54	08:24:31	2
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:41:18	08:42:22	08:25:31	23
Challenge Roth	2010-07-18	07:52:36	08:09:00	08:15:32	1
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:28:17	08:23:41	08:23:41	5

Results for Jordan Rapp (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Canada	2011-08-28	08:28:09	08:31:56	08:30:51	1
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	08:16:45	08:27:49	08:30:31	4
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	08:13:35	08:22:28	08:31:27	1
IM Canada	2009-08-30	08:25:13	08:29:07	08:34:37	1
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	08:19:45	08:26:17	08:37:18	3
IM Arizona	2008-04-13	08:35:04	08:38:16	08:44:29	3
IM Canada	2007-08-26	08:51:32	08:51:56	08:51:56	5

Results for Paul Amey (GBR)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:01:29	08:13:32	08:33:58	2
IM France	2011-06-26	08:47:04	08:50:58	08:45:48	4
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	08:27:20	08:33:58	08:40:17	7
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:48:58	08:46:49	08:46:49	16

Results for Maxim Kriat (UKR)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2011-11-05	08:10:43	08:30:27	08:34:44	2
IM Florida	2009-11-07	08:26:51	08:42:21	08:42:21	2

Results for Mathias Hecht (SWI)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Switzerland	2011-07-10	08:30:26	08:43:58	08:41:47	3
IM St. George	2011-05-07	08:32:03	08:32:16	08:41:27	1
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	08:45:36	08:46:47	08:43:01	3
IM South Africa	2010-04-25	08:28:53	08:36:23	08:42:17	2
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:37:29	08:32:48	08:43:20	13
IM Germany	2009-07-05	08:11:56	08:28:58	08:45:14	5
IM Australia	2009-04-05	09:08:03	09:10:50	08:48:30	12
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:34:02	08:31:56	08:43:22	8
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	08:56:33	08:55:23	08:46:13	3
IM Australia	2008-04-06	08:42:47	08:45:29	08:43:26	3
IM Switzerland	2007-06-24	08:32:47	08:45:10	08:42:38	2
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	08:54:16	08:50:20	08:41:29	33
IM Switzerland	2006-07-02	08:26:01	08:37:45	08:36:15	1
IM Western Australia	2005-11-27	08:32:14	08:34:28	08:34:28	3

Results for Torsten Abel (GER)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:16:44	08:29:10	08:45:24	4
IM Canada	2011-08-28	08:41:09	08:45:02	08:48:58	2
IM Texas	2011-05-21	08:38:40	08:44:13	08:49:59	10
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:42:42	08:43:46	08:51:48	26
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	08:20:39	08:29:39	08:54:40	3
IM Switzerland	2009-07-12	08:36:38	08:49:04	09:04:18	3
IM Canada	2007-08-26	09:02:07	09:02:31	09:12:23	12
IM Coeur d’Alene	2007-06-23	09:34:05	09:35:59	09:16:48	16
IM Canada	2006-08-27	09:14:42	09:13:43	09:02:36	10
Challenge Roth	2005-06-24	08:36:06	08:47:02	08:47:02	11

Results for Jozsef Major (HUN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	08:39:52	08:41:26	08:48:19	19
IM Austria	2011-07-03	08:28:15	08:54:16	08:49:09	6
IM Texas	2011-05-21	08:24:17	08:29:41	08:48:31	5
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28	08:42:25	08:52:40	08:51:08	9
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	08:26:15	08:37:32	08:50:55	5
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:40:46	08:41:50	08:53:02	22
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:16:04	09:10:38	08:55:04	9
Challenge Roth	2009-07-12	08:38:37	08:59:30	08:52:07	20
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	08:21:34	08:28:07	08:50:48	4
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:08:12	09:05:58	08:54:44	35
IM France	2008-06-22	08:57:45	09:04:33	08:52:28	7
IM Arizona	2008-04-13	08:34:19	08:37:31	08:49:44	1
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	08:51:44	08:51:25	08:53:04	22
IM Switzerland	2007-06-24	08:40:01	08:52:35	08:53:35	3
IM Arizona	2007-04-15	08:42:42	08:45:36	08:53:59	5
IM Florida	2006-11-04	08:48:17	08:55:41	08:58:59	7
IM France	2006-06-24	08:54:42	09:02:39	09:02:39	4

Results for Justin Daerr (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2011-11-05	08:18:02	08:38:04	08:51:35	3
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	08:34:35	08:44:10	08:53:27	3
IM Texas	2011-05-21	08:29:44	08:35:11	08:54:51	7
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	09:08:12	09:09:19	08:58:01	45
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:05:09	09:09:43	08:56:15	4
Challenge Wanaka	2010-01-16	08:38:19	08:38:50	08:53:56	2
IM Florida	2009-11-07	08:48:18	09:04:28	08:56:34	11
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	08:59:06	08:57:14	08:55:00	6
Challenge Wanaka	2009-01-01	08:47:47	08:53:28	08:54:29	3
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	08:40:10	08:46:58	08:54:43	11
IM Canada	2008-08-24	08:37:34	08:44:16	08:57:02	5
IM Florida	2007-11-03	08:40:25	08:55:49	09:01:59	10
IM Canada	2007-08-26	09:00:21	09:00:45	09:04:42	11
IM Florida	2006-11-04	09:05:48	09:13:27	09:07:33	15
IM Florida	2005-11-05	08:57:28	08:59:41	08:59:41	8

Results for Kevin Taddonio (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:45:51	08:59:01	08:59:00	22
Challenge Roth	2011-07-10	08:35:30	08:58:58	08:58:58	13

Results for Christian Brader (GER)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Regensburg	2011-08-07	09:06:09	09:18:32	09:01:17	7
IM St. George	2011-05-07	09:08:19	09:08:33	08:58:54	8
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:33:43	08:34:46	08:57:30	16
IM Canada	2010-08-29	08:32:41	08:40:12	09:00:43	2
IM Regensburg	2010-08-01	08:25:30	08:32:57	09:17:24	4
Challenge Roth	2010-07-18	10:23:03	10:44:40	09:24:20	24
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:14:42	09:09:17	09:09:42	8
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:57:39	08:52:47	09:09:47	26
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	08:56:35	08:55:59	09:13:25	2
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	09:21:47	09:18:47	09:17:49	12
IM Australia	2009-04-05	10:03:56	10:07:00	09:17:31	20
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:50:08	08:47:58	08:55:53	19
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	08:58:10	08:57:00	09:00:45	4
IM Germany	2007-07-01	08:51:09	09:05:50	09:05:50	12

Results for Matthew Russell (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:29:19	08:42:04	09:07:13	12
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	08:43:51	08:45:26	09:12:08	23
IM Canada	2011-08-28	08:59:31	09:03:32	09:18:23	7
IM Lake Placid	2011-07-24	09:26:26	09:28:34	09:22:43	9
IM Texas	2011-05-21	09:03:06	09:08:55	09:20:24	14
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:09:15	09:21:29	09:27:19	20
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:28:58	09:33:44	09:33:44	13

Results for Brandon Marsh (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	08:45:43	08:58:55	09:08:12	7
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	08:50:47	09:02:36	09:10:45	12
IM Wisconsin	2010-09-12	09:13:52	09:16:04	09:12:51	12
IM UK	2010-08-01	09:07:45	09:14:14	09:11:49	5
IM Florida	2009-11-07	08:42:41	08:58:40	09:10:43	9
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	09:14:41	09:12:46	09:17:45	9
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	09:16:44	09:24:01	09:24:01	26

Results for Balazs Csoke (HUN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	09:16:44	09:18:24	09:08:18	32
IM Korea	2011-07-03	08:48:21	08:55:01	09:05:50	1
IM South Africa	2011-04-10	08:43:06	08:54:46	09:08:59	10
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28	08:47:46	08:58:07	09:14:20	12
IM Switzerland	2010-07-25	08:57:19	09:08:20	09:22:39	12
IM Switzerland	2009-07-12	09:21:19	09:34:50	09:35:04	16
IM Switzerland	2007-06-24	09:21:53	09:35:28	09:35:28	16

Results for Mike Schifferle (SWI)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM St. George	2012-04-29	10:54:44	10:10:07	09:14:43	9
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	09:01:18	09:14:53	09:10:08	12
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:41:48	08:54:52	09:09:45	20
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	08:49:01	08:50:36	09:11:01	26
IM Wales	2011-09-11	09:23:54	09:14:43	09:12:53	7
IM Germany	2011-07-24	08:54:20	09:06:21	09:12:42	15
IM Switzerland	2011-07-10	08:53:57	09:08:06	09:13:21	8
IM Brasil	2011-05-29	08:53:07	09:13:45	09:13:57	10
IM South Africa	2011-04-10	09:04:02	09:16:10	09:13:58	14
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	08:47:53	08:59:38	09:13:41	11
IM Florida	2010-11-06	09:09:02	09:26:21	09:15:36	22
IM Wisconsin	2010-09-12	08:58:35	09:00:43	09:13:55	8
IM Regensburg	2010-08-01	08:49:42	08:57:30	09:16:15	8
IM Switzerland	2010-07-25	08:43:51	08:54:35	09:20:06	8
IM Austria	2010-07-04	08:54:57	09:12:13	09:26:39	19
IM Switzerland	2009-07-12	08:54:13	09:07:05	09:31:31	12
IM Austria	2008-07-13	08:56:20	09:13:48	09:39:54	20
IM Lanzarote	2007-05-20	10:00:35	09:58:10	09:48:55	20
IM Florida	2006-11-04	09:41:45	09:49:54	09:45:52	31
IM UK	2006-08-16	09:34:59	09:37:16	09:44:16	14
IM Switzerland	2006-07-02	09:19:56	09:32:55	09:48:23	15
IM Switzerland	2005-07-15	10:03:46	10:08:48	10:08:48	24

Results for Erich Kunz (SUI)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	09:12:03	09:25:52	09:17:50	35
IM Switzerland	2010-07-25	08:55:08	09:06:06	09:06:06	11

Results for Scott Defilippis (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka	2012-01-21	09:16:00	09:11:02	09:23:53	7
IM Florida	2011-11-05	08:27:13	08:47:37	09:26:29	8
IM France	2011-06-26	09:26:26	09:30:37	09:35:36	13
IM St. George	2011-05-07	09:58:05	09:58:20	09:36:56	15
IM Florida	2010-11-06	08:43:35	09:00:06	09:29:30	12
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:53:07	09:47:20	09:42:10	17
IM Florida	2009-11-07	09:31:53	09:49:23	09:39:07	17
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	09:25:00	09:28:16	09:28:16	16

Results for Toby Radcliffe (GBR)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	09:32:49	09:34:37	09:24:24	9
IM UK	2011-07-31	09:04:24	09:15:32	09:22:44	8
IM South Africa	2011-04-10	09:01:17	09:13:22	09:24:05	13
IM Florida	2010-11-06	09:01:02	09:18:06	09:26:18	19
IM UK	2010-08-01	09:25:28	09:32:10	09:28:08	6
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	09:12:44	09:22:41	09:27:04	18
IM UK	2009-08-02	09:33:49	09:30:35	09:28:16	11
IM Florida	2008-11-01	09:05:41	09:24:52	09:27:30	24
IM UK	2008-09-07	09:30:36	09:28:59	09:28:28	6
IM UK	2007-08-19	09:15:21	09:21:18	09:28:11	13
IM Austria	2007-07-08	09:16:25	09:27:52	09:32:45	21
IM Austria	2005-07-03	09:41:28	09:41:28	09:41:28	28

Results for Olly Piggin (CAN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene	2011-06-26	09:22:24	09:27:40	09:25:20	9
IM Florida	2010-11-06	09:18:22	09:35:59	09:24:48	25
IM Canada	2010-08-29	09:08:15	09:16:18	09:22:10	16
IM St. George	2010-05-01	11:59:16	11:52:15	09:23:51	25
IM Coeur d’Alene	2009-06-21	09:38:02	09:42:52	09:23:51	13
IM Florida	2008-11-01	08:49:11	09:07:47	09:18:57	15
IM Coeur d’Alene	2008-06-22	09:15:39	09:19:39	09:22:00	6
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	09:09:58	09:17:22	09:22:46	13
IM Canada	2007-08-26	09:17:56	09:18:21	09:25:06	14
IM Coeur d’Alene	2007-06-23	09:33:03	09:34:57	09:29:04	15
IM Canada	2006-08-27	09:22:36	09:21:36	09:21:36	13

Results for Anthony Toth (CAN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	08:46:57	08:58:41	09:30:38	10
IM Canada	2010-08-29	08:49:44	08:57:30	09:37:59	10
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	10:42:01	10:36:12	09:49:05	72
IM Canada	2009-08-30	09:02:45	09:06:56	09:36:21	9
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	09:25:11	09:32:34	09:46:47	31
IM Canada	2008-08-24	09:28:22	09:35:44	09:52:26	24
IM Coeur d’Alene	2007-06-23	09:59:02	10:01:01	10:02:16	21
IM Canada	2006-08-27	10:04:21	10:03:16	10:03:10	22
IM Canada	2005-08-29	10:05:22	10:03:01	10:03:01	24

Results for Jesse Vondracek (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM St. George	2012-04-29	10:29:36	09:46:42	09:33:56	8
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:53:56	09:07:18	09:31:35	26
IM Florida	2011-11-05	08:45:27	09:06:35	09:36:17	14
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	10:30:44	10:32:43	09:43:19	13
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:24:08	09:36:42	09:28:50	25
IM Louisville	2010-08-29	09:25:52	09:28:53	09:26:27	8
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:18:10	09:22:50	09:25:29	9
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	09:23:27	09:33:35	09:27:08	24
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	09:17:01	09:20:14	09:20:14	13

Results for Mac Brown (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	09:08:14	09:09:58	09:44:47	3
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	10:14:12	10:15:27	09:57:01	55
IM Florida	2009-11-07	10:08:21	10:26:58	09:50:13	21
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	09:11:09	09:09:15	09:35:42	8
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	10:19:51	10:18:30	09:51:48	24
IM Coeur d’Alene	2007-06-23	09:24:31	09:26:23	09:31:01	13
IM Coeur d’Alene	2006-06-25	09:36:45	09:37:12	09:37:12	3

Results for Sergio Quezada (MEX)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	09:27:31	09:41:46	10:13:55	23
IM Lake Placid	2011-07-24	10:29:11	10:31:33	10:27:32	12
IM St. George	2010-05-01	10:55:32	10:49:08	10:25:02	24
IM Canada	2009-08-30	10:02:53	10:07:32	10:06:23	29
IM Wisconsin	2007-09-09	10:05:29	10:04:21	10:04:21	21

Results for Jim Lamastra ()

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Results for Robert Wade ()

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Results for Benoit Bourguet ()

Race

Date

Total

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Results for Jonathan Shearon ()

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Date

Total

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Results for Alex Weber ()

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Results for Mary Beth Ellis (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	09:34:06	09:35:50	09:21:29	15
IM Canada	2011-08-28	09:03:13	09:07:16	09:16:25	1
IM Regensburg	2011-08-07	09:18:55	09:31:35	09:21:07	1
IM Austria	2011-07-03	08:43:34	09:10:22	09:10:22	1

Results for Kathleen Calkins ()

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	09:12:40	09:26:30	09:26:30	7

Results for Amy Marsh (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Switzerland	2011-07-10	09:11:36	09:26:13	09:30:53	2
IM Brasil	2011-05-29	09:07:49	09:29:01	09:32:23	1
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	09:28:19	09:29:29	09:33:53	11
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:27:30	09:32:15	09:36:31	1
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	09:43:59	09:41:58	09:41:58	1

Results for Caitlin Snow (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	09:18:11	09:19:52	09:38:23	9
IM Coeur d’Alene	2011-06-26	09:29:18	09:34:38	09:42:28	2
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	09:26:42	09:27:51	09:44:26	8
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:44:18	09:49:11	09:48:45	2
IM St. George	2010-05-01	10:07:26	10:01:30	09:48:37	3
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:51:59	09:46:38	09:43:00	14
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	09:41:21	09:40:42	09:40:52	2
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:43:27	09:41:04	09:41:04	12

Results for Corinne Abraham ( )

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Regensburg	2010-08-01	09:41:21	09:49:55	09:49:55	3

Results for Caroline Gregory (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	09:50:44	10:05:31	10:08:22	19
IM Coeur d’Alene	2011-06-26	10:05:53	10:11:34	10:11:34	4

Results for Charisa Wernick (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	09:22:37	09:36:42	10:12:19	10
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28	10:07:30	10:19:25	10:32:24	7
IM Wisconsin	2010-09-12	10:07:19	10:09:44	10:36:44	5
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	10:13:07	10:18:15	10:49:07	8
IM Coeur d’Alene	2008-06-22	10:35:13	10:39:48	11:13:26	10
IM Coeur d’Alene	2007-06-23	11:13:10	11:15:24	11:39:02	3
IM Coeur d’Alene	2006-06-25	12:09:56	12:10:30	12:10:30	22

Results for Sarah Piampiano ()

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	09:57:58	10:12:59	10:12:59	7

Results for Marilyn McDonald (CAN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	10:06:47	10:18:05	10:20:46	7
Challenge Wanaka	2008-01-19	10:42:55	10:46:55	10:22:09	4
IM Western Australia	2007-12-01	09:59:40	10:18:44	10:16:33	13
IM Canada	2007-08-26	10:09:36	10:10:03	10:15:57	9
IM France	2007-06-24	10:15:23	10:24:28	10:18:00	5
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	10:54:31	10:39:18	10:14:48	10
IM Western Australia	2005-11-27	09:56:50	09:59:26	09:58:54	2
IM Canada	2005-08-29	10:00:39	09:58:19	09:58:19	5

Results for Cindy Lewis ()

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	10:04:14	10:15:30	10:27:36	6
Challenge Roth	2011-07-10	09:45:56	10:12:36	10:32:34	8
IM Louisville	2010-08-29	10:34:00	10:37:23	10:45:35	6
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	10:53:06	10:51:41	10:54:05	8
IM Canada	2007-08-26	10:56:42	10:57:11	10:57:11	20

Results for Tami Ritchie ()

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	10:26:04	10:41:47	10:41:47	12

Results for Amanda McKenzie (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Brasil	2011-05-29	10:37:24	11:02:04	10:59:56	11
IM Brasil	2010-05-30	10:33:12	10:53:11	10:59:17	11
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	10:41:45	10:45:27	11:01:08	10
IM Florida	2008-11-01	10:09:38	10:31:04	11:06:15	9
IM Canada	2008-08-24	11:13:05	11:21:48	11:18:28	16
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	10:53:05	11:01:52	11:16:50	13
IM Canada	2007-08-26	10:56:14	10:56:43	11:27:58	19
IM UK	2005-08-21	12:41:57	12:23:43	12:23:43	8

Results for Sandra Soldan ()

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Results for Jackie Pearce ()

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IM Australia 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The field for IM Australia was pretty small – not much of a surprise with all the attention (and points and money) that IM Melbourne was getting. We had only 9 pro athletes finishing the race. The adjustment was at 9:26 – a quicker race than in the past, but still in line with the last years (new course rating of 4:41, mainly as a result of slower results in the earlier years).

Male Results

Paul Ambrose won the race leading from start to finish, but he faced a strong run by Tim Berkel who managed to make the race a bit more interesting towards the end:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Paul Ambrose	GBR	00:46:18	04:31:25	02:57:12	08:17:38	08:45:00
2	Tim Berkel	AUS	00:48:49	04:42:04	02:47:20	08:21:11	08:41:58
3	Jason Shortis	AUS	00:50:28	04:53:51	02:51:57	08:40:02	08:47:26
4	Leon Griffin	AUS	00:48:53	04:48:26	03:15:26	08:55:54	08:53:12
5	Chris Dmitrieff	AUS	00:51:46	05:10:03	03:18:59	09:24:21	09:08:08
6	Dan Brown	PHI	00:56:46	05:42:34	06:44:37	13:29:04	08:48:41

Female Results

The three women came off the bike very close together, and Aussie Michelle Mitchell put in a soli 3:08 marathon to win the race:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Michelle Mitchell	AUS	00:51:48	05:29:57	03:08:38	09:34:57	09:32:06
2	Nicole Ward	AUS	00:51:50	05:28:57	03:20:47	09:44:40	09:54:22
3	Hillary Biscay	USA	00:50:40	05:29:13	03:34:04	09:58:19	10:03:55

IM St. George 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The conditions on race were so hard that they resulted in very slow finishing times. In fact they were so slow that my “normal” calculation methods didn’t work. (Usually I only look at athletes within half an hour of their expected finish times to calculate the race adjustment. This time there were only two athletes which would have resulted in an inappropriate adjustment.) After some fiddling around, I ended up with an adjustment of –36:48, meaning that the finishing times were more than half an hour slower compared to a “neutral” course (such as IM Hawaii). This is the lowest number I have ever seen – and it will probably stay that way for quite some time. But as this is the last time that St. George was run as a full Ironman, we will not be able to see if this year’s results were a fluke or typical of the conditions in Utah.

Male Results

On the men’s side, Ben Hoffman won the race on the run:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Ben Hoffman	USA	00:52:44	05:10:01	03:01:24	09:07:04	09:25:07
2	Maik Twelsiek	GER	00:52:42	05:10:35	03:18:23	09:25:58	09:17:45
3	Axel Zeebroek	BEL	00:51:22	05:26:52	03:12:53	09:35:33	09:28:58
4	Thomas Gerlach		00:59:19	05:33:54	03:12:14	09:49:00	10:43:39
5	Matthew Sheeks	USA	01:04:09	05:48:41	02:55:37	09:52:03	10:00:58
6	Ernst Moser	AUT	01:04:52	06:45:00	03:16:58	10:04:07	09:43:34
7	Adam O’Meara	CAN	00:58:47	05:51:26	03:13:44	10:08:10	10:15:40
8	Jesse Vondracek	USA	00:58:47	06:06:57	03:20:21	10:29:36	10:10:32
9	Mike Schifferle	SWI	01:04:31	06:30:15	03:13:28	10:54:44	09:47:38
10	Heath Thurston	USA	00:51:18	06:24:25	03:45:13	11:07:34	10:46:54

Maik Twelsiek finished the bike together with Ben Hoffman, but then had to let him go on the run, Chris MacDonald even had to “pull the pin” on the run and DNF’d, leaving the last place on the podium for Axel Zeebroek.

Female Results

On the female side, “MBK” lead the race from wire to wire in a very convincing fashion, almost posting the fastest times on each of the segments:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Meredith Kessler	USA	00:52:42	05:57:14	03:18:23	10:12:59	10:16:41
2	Jessie Donavan	USA	01:18:51	05:55:24	03:18:58	10:37:30	10:18:28
3	Uli Bromme	USA	01:09:10	06:10:21	03:29:40	10:53:20	10:43:21
4	Gillian Clayton		01:34:00	06:20:12	03:15:13	11:15:38	n/a
5	Erin Spitler		01:19:37	06:07:22	03:45:30	11:16:42	11:05:07
6	Erin Young		01:09:11	06:56:04	03:40:01	11:52:35	n/a

IM St. George 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

St. George has been run twice as an Ironman (2010 and 2011), and it has just been announced that it will become a 70.3. after this year. So this is the last year for athletes to post a course record. Currently these stand at 8:32:03 (posted by last year’s winner Mathias Hecht) and 9:30:33 (also from last year by Heather Wurtele). One chance to go down in history!

St. George is a slow course (lots of hills, especially on the run) with a course rating of –2:33. It is a 2.000 points race (and in North America), so the field is a bit larger and deeper than IM Australia.

Male Participants

Last year’s second, Maik Twelsiek is back and will aim to win another Ironman.

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Maik Twelsiek	GER	08:44:37	08:42:09	42
2	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:50:29	08:48:00	74
3	Ben Hoffman	USA	08:51:33	08:49:03	84
4	Axel Zeebroek	BEL	08:55:10	08:52:39	97
5	Kevin Taddonio	USA	09:01:31	08:58:58	127
6	Ernst Moser	AUT	09:08:52	09:06:17	173
7	Matthew Russell	USA	09:09:47	09:07:12	175
8	Mike Schifferle	SWI	09:12:42	09:10:06	195
9	Matthew Sheeks	USA	09:25:15	09:22:36	299
10	Brendan Halpin	USA	09:32:06	09:29:25	346
11	Billy Edwards	USA	09:32:11	09:29:30	350
12	Jesse Vondracek	USA	09:34:16	09:31:34	372
13	Adam O’Meara	CAN	09:39:05	09:36:22	395
14	Logan Franks	USA	09:58:06	09:55:17	524
15	Thomas Gerlach		10:05:25	10:02:34	570
16	Heath Thurston	USA	10:08:28	10:05:37	592
17	Dantley Young	USA	10:08:44	10:05:52	594
18	Richard Wygand	BRA	10:52:21	10:49:17	770
19	Kirk Nelson	USA	12:25:14	12:21:44	858
20	Monte Still		n/a	unrated	n/a

Here are the winning odds:

• Maik Twelsiek: 47%
• Ben Hoffman: 22%
• Chris McDonald: 15%
• Axel Zeebroek: 10%

“Maiki” is a very solid competitor who rarely has a day off, lets hope he overcame his DNF in Abu Dhabi (apparently, he had problems with his bike position there). But I’m sure that Ben and Chris will make his life as hard as possible.

Female Participants

Here are the entries in the women’s race:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Mackenzie Madison	USA	09:39:36	09:36:53	30
2	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:40:02	09:37:19	31
3	Jessie Donavan	USA	09:41:43	09:38:59	36
4	Jessica Smith	USA	09:51:54	09:49:07	57
5	Uli Bromme	USA	10:05:07	10:02:17	89
6	Jackie Arendt	USA	10:07:55	10:05:04	100
7	Erin Spitler	USA	10:25:36	10:22:40	170
8	Trish Deim	USA	n/a	unrated	n/a
9	Gillian Clayton	CAN	n/a	unrated	n/a
10	Erin Young	USA	n/a	unrated	n/a

Even if their rankings are quite close, “MBK” has a better chance of winning:

• Meredith Kessler: 43%
• Mackenzie Madison: 37%
• Jessie Donavan: 11%

IM Australia 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Ironman Australia does not draw a big field – no surprise for a 1.000-points race. It has a course rating of 3:53, but has seen adjustments around 8 minutes in the last years, so the course can be quick. The course records are held by Chris McCormack (8:20:41 in 2006) and Chrissie Wellington (8:57:10 in 2009).

Last year, we had two “big names” win the race: Pete Jacobs in 8:29:28 and Caroline Steffen in 9:29:54. After all, Australia is a nice location and well placed in the year to prepare for Kona once qualifying is out of the way.

Male Participants

 

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Tim Berkel	AUS	08:47:24	08:51:13	91
2	Paul Ambrose	GBR	08:50:30	08:54:20	106
3	Jason Shortis	AUS	08:52:57	08:56:48	115
4	Dan Brown	PHI	08:54:13	08:58:05	124
5	Leon Griffin	AUS	08:58:46	09:02:40	150
6	Chris Dmitrieff	AUS	09:13:52	09:17:52	259
7	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:19:49	09:23:52	306

Looking at the winning odds, it ‘s going to be a three way race:

• Paul Ambrose: 36%
• Tim Berkel: 36%
• Jason Shortis: 16%

Female Participants

The field on the women’s side is even smaller:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Michelle Mitchell	AUS	09:38:05	09:42:16	42
2	Kat Baker	AUS	09:58:22	10:02:42	91
3	Nicole Ward	AUS	10:00:34	10:04:55	99
4	Hillary Biscay	USA	10:10:14	10:14:39	140

All athletes have a chance to win, but Michelle Mitchell is the clear favorite:

• Michelle Mitchell: 57%
• Nicole Ward: 17%
• Hillary Biscay: 16%
• Kat Baker: 10%

Kona 2012 Odds: April Changes

In February, I started a series of posts on the Kona 2012 odds. This is the April update, after IM Melbourne and IM South Africa. You can always see the latest odds by clicking “Kona 2012 Odds” in the main menu.

Men

The current odds are as follows:

• Craig Alexander: 34%
• Chris McCormack, Andreas Raelert, Marino Vanhoenacker: 12% each
• Pete Jacobs: 7%
• Eneko Llanos, Cameron Brown: 6%
• Paul Amey: 2%

And a look at the changes over time:

Here’s where the last set of changes are coming from:

• I’ve added Chris McCormack back into the mix. With WTC “buying” the Cairns race and turning it into an “official” IM race with qualifying points and Chris being committed to race there (as he did last year when it was a Challenge race), his “validation” issue has been resolved and as long as he finishes he gets a spot on the Kona start list. He may still qulify for the Olympics, but even the he might show up in Kona to race. And once he’s in the race, he will have an influence on the dynamics of the race.
• With Macca back in the race, almost everyone’s odds are going down.
• Even with Macca in the field, Crowie’s great performance n Melbourne improved his odds to win again in Kona. He will be able to take his time to prepare for Kona and he seems to be on a completely different level of confidence since winning in Las Vegas and Kona.
• After pushing Crowie to a sub-8 finish and delivering his career best performance, Cam Brown´s odds have grown to much more than a statistical blip.

Women

The current odds are as follows:

• Mirinda Carfrae: 31%
• Caroline Steffen: 19%
• Leanda Cave: 14%
• Rachel Joyce: 14%
• Mary Beth Ellis: 7%
• Catriona Morrison: 4%

The changes over the season:

Here’s where the last set of changes are coming from:

• The odds for Caroline Steffen and Rachel Joyce have improved after their great performances in Melbourne.
• Rinnie’s odds have decreased after Melbourne, but she is still the clear favorite. However, I’m not worried about her for Kona – her Melbourne performance was better than her race in New Zealand last year.
• For the rest of the athletes, there were no noticeable changes compared to February.

IM St. George 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Maik Twelsiek	GER	08:44:37	08:42:09	42
2	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:50:29	08:48:00	74
3	Ben Hoffman	USA	08:51:33	08:49:03	84
4	Axel Zeebroek	BEL	08:55:10	08:52:39	97
5	Kevin Taddonio	USA	09:01:31	08:58:58	127
6	Ernst Moser	AUT	09:08:52	09:06:17	173
7	Matthew Russell	USA	09:09:47	09:07:12	175
8	Mike Schifferle	SWI	09:12:42	09:10:06	195
9	Matthew Sheeks	USA	09:25:15	09:22:36	299
10	Brendan Halpin	USA	09:32:06	09:29:25	346
11	Billy Edwards	USA	09:32:11	09:29:30	350
12	Jesse Vondracek	USA	09:34:16	09:31:34	372
13	Adam O’Meara	CAN	09:39:05	09:36:22	395
14	Logan Franks	USA	09:58:06	09:55:17	524
15	Thomas Gerlach		10:05:25	10:02:34	570
16	Heath Thurston	USA	10:08:28	10:05:37	592
17	Dantley Young	USA	10:08:44	10:05:52	594
18	Richard Wygand	BRA	10:52:21	10:49:17	770
19	Kirk Nelson	USA	12:25:14	12:21:44	858
20	Monte Still		n/a	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Mackenzie Madison	USA	09:39:36	09:36:53	30
2	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:40:02	09:37:19	31
3	Jessie Donavan	USA	09:41:43	09:38:59	36
4	Jessica Smith	USA	09:51:54	09:49:07	57
5	Uli Bromme	USA	10:05:07	10:02:17	89
6	Jackie Arendt	USA	10:07:55	10:05:04	100
7	Erin Spitler		10:25:36	10:22:40	170
8	Trish Deim		n/a	unrated	n/a
9	Gillian Clayton		n/a	unrated	n/a
10	Erin Young		n/a	unrated	n/a

Results for Maik Twelsiek (GER)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Western Australia	2011-12-04	08:56:10	09:04:54	08:42:09	10
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	08:43:03	08:44:36	08:39:18	22
IM Coeur d’Alene	2011-06-26	08:24:59	08:29:42	08:38:35	2
IM St. George	2011-05-07	08:33:46	08:33:57	08:39:51	2
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:27:02	08:28:03	08:40:47	12
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	08:48:33	08:52:58	08:42:47	3
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	08:42:53	08:40:51	08:41:01	3
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:35:10	08:30:29	08:41:03	12
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	08:36:37	08:36:01	08:43:09	1
IM Australia	2009-04-05	08:34:10	08:36:46	08:44:46	5
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:48:37	08:46:26	08:46:54	14
IM Germany	2008-07-06	08:24:03	08:43:28	08:47:02	11
IM Wisconsin	2007-09-09	08:52:49	08:51:49	08:48:24	1
Challenge Roth	2007-06-24	08:17:03	08:37:09	08:46:55	6
Challenge Roth	2006-06-24	08:31:53	08:44:05	08:53:41	9
IM South Africa	2006-03-18	09:02:19	09:04:03	09:04:03	9

Results for Chris McDonald (AUS)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	08:27:36	08:37:02	08:48:00	1
IM Brasil	2011-05-29	08:24:34	08:44:04	08:49:02	5
IM Florida	2010-11-06	08:32:37	08:48:46	08:49:30	9
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:52:04	08:53:08	08:49:34	35
Challenge Roth	2010-07-18	08:37:22	08:55:18	08:49:14	10
IM Coeur d’Alene	2010-06-27	08:48:30	08:53:57	08:48:38	5
IM St. George	2010-05-01	08:54:42	08:49:28	08:48:05	3
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	08:56:47	08:54:55	08:47:55	5
Challenge Roth	2009-07-12	08:17:39	08:37:40	08:47:12	11
Challenge Wanaka	2009-01-01	08:37:41	08:43:15	08:48:14	1
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	08:58:59	09:06:01	08:48:45	17
IM Wisconsin	2008-09-07	08:43:29	08:43:40	08:46:49	1
IM Louisville	2008-08-27	08:54:54	08:51:41	08:47:12	2
Challenge Roth	2008-07-13	08:20:59	08:41:01	08:46:36	4
Challenge Wanaka	2008-01-19	08:49:37	08:52:54	08:47:25	2
IM Western Australia	2007-12-01	08:21:12	08:37:07	08:46:37	8
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	08:38:40	08:40:05	08:48:10	1
Challenge Roth	2007-06-24	08:24:42	08:45:06	08:49:36	9
IM Western Australia	2006-12-03	08:36:00	08:43:07	08:50:31	4
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	09:12:35	08:59:45	08:52:04	2
IM Lake Placid	2006-07-23	09:07:55	09:00:30	08:50:12	9
IM Australia	2006-05-11	08:57:09	08:55:03	08:47:01	8
IM Western Australia	2005-11-27	08:37:38	08:39:53	08:43:44	6
IM Canada	2005-08-29	08:47:10	08:45:07	08:45:54	5
IM New Zealand	2005-05-03	08:46:45	08:46:45	08:46:45	5

Results for Ben Hoffman (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid	2011-07-24	08:33:29	08:35:24	08:49:03	2
IM St. George	2011-05-07	08:41:39	08:41:50	08:52:15	4
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	09:03:29	09:04:34	08:55:13	42
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	08:39:34	08:43:54	08:52:15	1
IM St. George	2010-05-01	08:52:54	08:47:41	08:55:48	2
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:29:54	09:24:43	09:01:09	55
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	08:24:13	08:30:48	08:30:48	6

Results for Axel Zeebroek (BEL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	08:54:06	09:07:29	08:52:39	10
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	08:58:13	08:59:49	08:48:46	28
IM Texas	2011-05-21	08:28:07	08:33:33	08:45:02	6
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28	08:28:52	08:38:50	08:49:59	4
IM UK	2010-08-01	08:49:38	08:55:53	08:56:43	3
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	08:48:14	08:57:43	08:57:43	13

Results for Kevin Taddonio (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:45:51	08:59:00	08:58:58	22
Challenge Roth	2011-07-10	08:35:30	08:58:56	08:58:56	13

Results for Ernst Moser (AUT)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	09:09:42	09:11:25	09:06:17	4
IM Austria	2011-07-03	08:37:10	09:03:37	09:05:09	9
IM St. George	2011-05-07	09:14:35	09:14:47	09:05:34	11
IM Canada	2010-08-29	08:53:49	09:01:38	09:02:27	11
IM Austria	2010-07-04	08:40:51	08:57:37	09:02:46	11
IM Austria	2009-07-05	08:43:20	08:59:27	09:05:44	14
IM Austria	2008-07-13	08:47:03	09:03:55	09:10:30	16
IM Austria	2007-07-08	09:08:01	09:19:18	09:19:18	19

Results for Matthew Russell (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:29:19	08:42:03	09:07:12	12
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	08:43:51	08:45:25	09:12:07	23
IM Canada	2011-08-28	08:59:31	09:03:32	09:18:22	7
IM Lake Placid	2011-07-24	09:26:26	09:28:33	09:22:42	9
IM Texas	2011-05-21	09:03:06	09:08:54	09:20:23	14
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:09:15	09:21:28	09:27:18	20
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:28:58	09:33:43	09:33:43	13

Results for Mike Schifferle (SWI)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	09:01:18	09:14:51	09:10:06	12
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:41:48	08:54:51	09:09:43	20
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	08:49:01	08:50:35	09:11:00	26
IM Wales	2011-09-11	09:23:54	09:14:40	09:12:51	7
IM Germany	2011-07-24	08:54:20	09:06:20	09:12:40	15
IM Switzerland	2011-07-10	08:53:57	09:08:04	09:13:19	8
IM Brasil	2011-05-29	08:53:07	09:13:44	09:13:55	10
IM South Africa	2011-04-10	09:04:02	09:16:09	09:13:56	14
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	08:47:53	08:59:38	09:13:38	11
IM Florida	2010-11-06	09:09:02	09:26:20	09:15:34	22
IM Wisconsin	2010-09-12	08:58:35	09:00:42	09:13:52	8
IM Regensburg	2010-08-01	08:49:42	08:57:28	09:16:12	8
IM Switzerland	2010-07-25	08:43:51	08:54:34	09:20:02	8
IM Austria	2010-07-04	08:54:57	09:12:10	09:26:35	19
IM Switzerland	2009-07-12	08:54:13	09:07:02	09:31:27	12
IM Austria	2008-07-13	08:56:20	09:13:29	09:39:49	20
IM Lanzarote	2007-05-20	10:00:35	09:58:10	09:48:55	20
IM Florida	2006-11-04	09:41:45	09:49:54	09:45:52	31
IM UK	2006-08-16	09:34:59	09:37:16	09:44:16	14
IM Switzerland	2006-07-02	09:19:56	09:32:55	09:48:23	15
IM Switzerland	2005-07-15	10:03:46	10:08:48	10:08:48	24

Results for Matthew Sheeks (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:17:57	09:22:36	09:22:36	8

Results for Brendan Halpin (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	09:04:36	09:18:14	09:29:25	13
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	09:17:13	09:18:58	09:33:40	6
IM Coeur d’Alene	2011-06-26	09:34:19	09:39:41	09:41:51	11
IM Canada	2009-08-30	09:36:40	09:41:06	09:44:14	23
IM Coeur d’Alene	2007-06-23	09:48:09	09:50:06	09:50:06	20

Results for Billy Edwards (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	09:37:09	09:38:57	09:29:30	10
IM Coeur d’Alene	2011-06-26	09:13:13	09:18:23	09:27:39	7
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:45:55	09:50:48	09:29:44	18
IM Coeur d’Alene	2010-06-27	09:14:42	09:20:25	09:25:19	11
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:59:30	09:54:03	09:26:35	67
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	09:12:09	09:11:31	09:19:15	7
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	09:17:02	09:24:18	09:21:51	27
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:24:34	09:24:12	09:20:54	45
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	09:18:48	09:20:20	09:19:38	13
IM Coeur d’Alene	2007-06-23	09:16:09	09:17:59	09:19:14	10
IM Canada	2006-08-27	09:21:48	09:20:48	09:20:48	12

Results for Jesse Vondracek (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:53:56	09:07:17	09:31:34	26
IM Florida	2011-11-05	08:45:27	09:06:34	09:36:16	14
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	10:30:44	10:32:42	09:43:18	13
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:24:08	09:36:41	09:28:49	25
IM Louisville	2010-08-29	09:25:52	09:28:52	09:26:26	8
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:18:10	09:22:50	09:25:28	9
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	09:23:27	09:33:34	09:27:07	24
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	09:17:01	09:20:13	09:20:13	13

Results for Adam O’Meara (CAN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	09:20:26	09:34:28	09:36:22	20
IM Canada	2011-08-28	09:35:55	09:40:12	09:36:55	18
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	08:58:04	09:10:02	09:35:40	14
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	09:13:58	09:23:55	09:46:57	19
IM Canada	2009-08-30	09:58:20	10:02:56	09:58:18	28
IM Canada	2008-08-24	09:38:37	09:46:06	09:54:19	28
IM Canada	2006-08-27	10:10:00	10:08:55	10:08:55	23

Results for Logan Franks (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	10:20:01	10:31:33	09:55:17	7
IM Coeur d’Alene	2011-06-26	09:34:58	09:40:20	09:33:44	12
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:20:27	09:25:08	09:25:08	11

Results for Thomas Gerlach ()

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:57:00	09:10:25	10:02:34	27
IM Wisconsin	2010-09-12	09:53:49	09:56:09	10:20:44	16
IM Louisville	2010-08-29	10:08:29	10:11:43	10:28:49	12
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	10:43:20	10:41:05	10:37:05	20
IM Wisconsin	2008-09-07	10:30:50	10:31:04	10:34:46	19
IM Wisconsin	2007-09-09	10:40:11	10:38:59	10:37:35	23
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	10:50:49	10:35:42	10:35:42	20

Results for Heath Thurston (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM St. George	2011-05-07	10:09:18	10:09:31	10:05:37	16
IM Canada	2009-08-30	10:08:42	10:13:23	10:02:58	30
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	09:57:00	10:04:48	09:55:29	40
IM Florida	2007-11-03	09:26:07	09:42:52	09:42:52	37

Results for Dantley Young (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Australia	2009-04-05	10:30:41	10:33:52	10:05:52	22
IM Canada	2008-08-24	09:19:31	09:26:46	09:48:17	23
IM Arizona	2008-04-13	10:08:24	10:12:10	10:12:10	16

Results for Richard Wygand (BRA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	10:03:04	10:18:10	10:49:17	30
IM Brasil	2011-05-29	10:37:08	11:01:46	10:59:04	16
IM Florida	2010-11-06	09:49:28	10:08:02	10:58:04	31
IM Brasil	2010-05-30	10:25:25	10:45:08	11:21:34	18
IM Florida	2008-11-01	11:48:16	12:13:07	11:47:19	46
IM Brasil	2007-05-27	11:15:45	11:30:00	11:26:15	33
IM Florida	2006-11-04	11:12:26	11:21:51	11:21:51	42

Results for Kirk Nelson (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	12:41:21	12:58:17	12:21:44	36
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	10:34:13	10:19:29	10:19:29	19

Results for Monte Still ()

Race

Date

Total

Adjusted

Rating

Rank in Race

Results for Mackenzie Madison (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2011-11-05	09:10:21	09:32:28	09:36:53	2
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:24:11	09:36:44	09:39:54	7
IM Canada	2010-08-29	09:34:51	09:43:16	09:43:16	3

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	09:00:14	09:13:44	09:37:19	3
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	09:50:45	09:52:36	09:41:18	2
IM Canada	2011-08-28	09:37:22	09:41:40	09:39:09	3
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:15:01	09:27:22	09:38:34	4
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	10:04:02	10:05:15	09:41:07	26
IM Canada	2010-08-29	09:13:46	09:21:52	09:34:19	1
IM Coeur d’Alene	2010-06-27	09:23:52	09:29:41	09:39:00	2
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:46:58	09:41:13	09:44:10	2
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	09:37:09	09:47:31	09:47:31	7

Results for Jessie Donavan (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	09:24:52	09:38:59	09:38:59	11

Results for Jessica Smith (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	09:34:45	09:49:07	09:49:07	12

Results for Uli Bromme (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	10:19:09	10:21:00	10:02:17	21
IM Germany	2011-07-24	09:44:10	09:57:17	09:57:29	11
IM St. George	2011-05-07	10:10:48	10:11:01	09:57:33	3
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:31:22	09:44:05	09:51:49	9
IM Canada	2010-08-29	09:46:19	09:54:54	09:56:25	7
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	09:47:44	09:58:18	09:58:18	10

Results for Jackie Arendt (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	10:21:02	10:22:53	10:05:04	22
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	09:40:28	09:51:16	09:58:39	2
IM Lake Placid	2011-07-24	09:56:21	09:58:34	10:02:34	4
IM St. George	2011-05-07	10:06:36	10:06:49	10:06:49	2

Results for Erin Spitler ( )

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	09:55:03	10:09:55	10:22:40	21
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	10:38:32	10:40:32	10:29:44	8
IM Australia	2011-05-01	10:08:33	10:17:45	10:17:45	5

Results for Trish Deim ()

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Date

Total

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Rating

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Results for Gillian Clayton ()

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Results for Erin Young ()

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