Ironman Texas 2016 (May 14th) – Predictions

IMTexasLogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42
2015 Matt Hanson (USA) 08:07:03 Angela Naeth (CAN) 08:55:19

An interesting side note: So far no athlete has been able to win twice in Texas.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Matt Hanson USA 00:55:02 04:21:25 02:45:47 08:07:03
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:55:09 04:10:07 03:04:35 08:16:26
3 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:07 04:24:27 02:55:54 08:21:03

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Angela Naeth CAN 00:59:35 04:41:38 03:09:13 08:55:19
2 Leanda Cave GBR 00:53:13 04:47:43 03:12:02 08:58:12
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:53:08 04:52:35 03:14:00 09:05:02

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:07:03 Matt Hanson 2015-05-16
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:10:07 Joe Skipper 2015-05-16
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:51:49 Kelly Williamson 2014-05-17
Bike female 04:40:39 Corinne Abraham 2015-05-16
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:20.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 10:52 -02:44 18:09 -01:41 41 10:52 -02:44 18:09 -01:41
2012 12:54 -01:22 15:12 02:45 27 11:53 -02:03 16:40 00:32
2013 07:13 -01:43 15:55 02:23 30 of 46 10:20 -01:56 16:25 01:09
2014 16:45 00:36 16:05 03:51 44 of 55 11:56 -01:18 16:20 01:50
2015 08:56 -01:52 18:23 -03:46 33 of 52 11:20 -01:25 16:45 00:43

Course Changes for 2016

The biggest thing on athlete’s minds is likely the shortened bike course. There is a big construction project on the old bike course and getting sign-off on a new course turned out to be very complicated. For a long time there was no approved bike course and in the absence of any official information rumors spread of the whole race getting cancelled. In addition some strong rain caused flooding in The Woodlands area. This ultimately resulted in a shortened bike course (officially 94 miles instead of 112 miles or roughly 150 km instead of 180) that is also quite complicated. Just looking at the course map can make your head spin. Kona is a very simple bike course, but there are still athletes that make a wrong turn and cut parts of the course (for an example check out my story on Shiao-Yu Li’s Kona in 2015). I just hope that the volunteers help to ensure that all athletes follow the same course. Hopefully the impact of the course on the race results will be limited to a change in race dynamics.

The shortened bike course will result in about 40 to 50 minutes quicker finish times for the Pros. T his will allow athletes to go a bit harder than what would be normal for an Ironman. But of course this is hard to calculate before the race, and overpaying carries the risk of blowing up on the run, especially if things get hot and humid on the run. A well-paced bike ride will also allow for a slightly quicker run than a typical IM, and to win the race you’ll probably have to run sub-2:50 (men) and sub-3 hours for the women in addition to a fast bike. It will be critical to get the pacing right – and no one will have any experience racing these exact distances.

If just linearly scaling the times for the shortened bike (as I have done for my predictions), the impact won’t be very large: The section that is “missing” correspond to roughly three minutes between a fast biker such as Andy Starykowicz and a faster runner (also slower biker compared to Andy) such as Matt Hanson (similar on the female side, comparing Sarah Piampiano and Kelly Williamson). Of course three minutes won’t make a huge difference in the final results, but it can mean the difference between Matt and Kelly running themselves on the podium or fighting for the win.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race and has automatic Kona qualifier slots for the male and female winners. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 6 Nils Frommhold GER 07:30:09 08:20:39 00:49:35 03:35:24 03:00:10 78% +0% -22% (7) 6
2 1 Matt Hanson USA 07:31:37 08:39:22 00:55:04 03:45:48 02:45:45 29% +39% -31% (9) 53
3 3 Eneko Llanos ESP 07:32:26 08:23:08 00:49:45 03:38:15 02:59:26 90% +0% -10% (24) 9
4 18 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 07:32:47 08:30:54 00:49:17 03:44:35 02:53:54 56% +14% -31% (13) (23)
5 2 Jordan Rapp USA 07:34:25 08:28:09 00:53:33 03:36:58 02:58:54 72% +10% -18% (18) 18
6 14 Callum Millward NZL 07:35:31 08:26:07 00:50:12 03:45:32 02:54:47 74% +0% -26% (4) 14
7 10 Michael Weiss AUT 07:37:30 08:32:14 00:56:15 03:36:16 02:59:59 89% +11% -0% (13) 28
8 13 Jeff Symonds CAN 07:38:59 08:31:58 00:52:03 03:52:35 02:49:21 79% +0% -21% (7) 26
9 16 Richie Cunningham AUS 07:41:31 08:47:05 00:51:01 03:42:31 03:02:59 50% +0% -50% (3) (76)
10 4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 07:42:04 08:32:50 00:49:56 03:45:59 03:01:09 81% +1% -18% (10) 30
11 7 Matthew Russell USA 07:42:57 08:45:54 00:58:50 03:43:16 02:55:51 52% +33% -15% (37) 73
12 8 Andrew Starykowicz USA 07:43:49 08:32:48 00:50:51 03:31:17 03:16:42 60% +0% -40% (7) 29
13 5 Justin Daerr USA 07:43:53 08:50:15 00:54:17 03:46:28 02:58:07 56% +13% -31% (28) 85
14 19 Pedro Gomes POR 07:44:02 08:41:40 00:53:09 03:48:29 02:57:24 59% +6% -35% (21) 58
15 36 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 07:46:06 08:44:48 00:49:09 03:51:25 03:00:32 62% +0% -38% (11) 66
16 29 Marc Duelsen GER 07:46:21 08:46:17 00:54:20 03:44:49 03:02:12 60% +0% -40% (6) (74)
17 42 Eric Limkemann USA 07:46:23 08:43:39 00:51:17 03:43:57 03:06:09 50% +32% -18% (4) 63
18 23 Barrett Brandon USA 07:47:06 08:45:06 00:49:18 03:51:09 03:01:40 60% +0% -40% (5) 68
19 24 Alberto Casadei ITA 07:48:08 08:49:13 00:49:15 03:53:03 03:00:49 38% +16% -46% (7) 81
20 15 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 07:48:52 08:49:24 00:55:49 03:44:05 03:03:57 61% +19% -20% (11) 83
21 9 Chris McDonald AUS 07:49:14 08:46:26 00:54:44 03:45:57 03:03:34 62% +8% -30% (41) 75
22 49 Jonathan Shearon USA 07:52:10 08:55:15 00:55:06 03:44:46 03:07:18 57% +12% -31% (13) 105
23 46 Michael Ruenz GER 07:53:18 08:52:33 00:56:25 03:52:10 02:59:42 54% +0% -46% (7) 94
24 28 Trevor Delsaut FRA 07:54:25 08:59:41 00:55:44 03:52:37 03:01:04 38% +10% -52% (22) 120
25 21 Mauro Baertsch SUI 07:56:14 08:59:09 00:55:30 03:52:26 03:03:17 45% +32% -23% (9) 118
26 53 Harry Wiltshire GBR 07:57:35 08:53:24 00:49:39 03:53:03 03:09:53 26% +32% -42% (14) 96
27 45 Scott Neyedli GBR 07:58:01 08:52:31 00:52:36 03:53:51 03:06:33 55% +5% -40% (18) (94)
28 17 Balazs Csoke HUN 07:58:20 09:05:10 00:49:23 03:50:24 03:13:33 56% +10% -34% (22) 150
29 11 Swen Sundberg GER 07:58:43 08:58:56 00:54:30 03:49:06 03:10:07 55% +1% -44% (17) 116
30 37 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 07:58:52 09:11:40 00:56:19 03:52:56 03:04:38 59% +40% -1% (8) 177
31 12 Jozsef Major HUN 07:58:57 08:55:22 00:59:21 03:45:47 03:08:49 76% +5% -19% (30) 106
32 51 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 07:58:57 08:59:31 00:58:51 03:45:33 03:09:33 61% +28% -11% (7) 119
33 39 Jaroslav Kovacic SLO 08:00:31 09:03:45 00:50:57 03:58:04 03:06:31 22% +78% -0% (3) 139
34 44 Matic Modic SLO 08:01:01 09:04:30 00:57:03 03:52:02 03:06:56 47% +39% -13% (6) 143
35 20 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:01:54 09:02:14 01:02:01 03:49:53 03:05:00 84% +12% -4% (54) 130
36 48 Francisco Serrano MEX 08:03:24 09:09:54 00:52:31 03:51:36 03:14:17 100% +0% -0% (1) (170)
37 25 Antony Costes FRA 08:04:22 09:09:41 00:50:00 03:45:27 03:23:56 100% +0% -0% (1) (168)
38 31 Derek Garcia USA 08:04:40 09:04:29 00:55:17 03:50:09 03:14:14 81% +7% -12% (10) 142
39 35 Patrick Jaberg SUI 08:05:26 09:04:52 00:55:36 03:53:36 03:11:13 96% +0% -4% (16) 148
40 22 AJ Baucco USA 08:08:44 09:08:09 00:54:12 03:55:13 03:14:18 64% +0% -36% (7) 160
41 26 Matthew Curbeau USA 08:09:43 09:25:53 00:56:46 03:51:41 03:16:17 33% +43% -24% (6) 211
42 50 Denis Sketako SLO 08:13:20 09:17:45 01:00:11 03:53:55 03:14:13 100% +0% -0% (2) (198)
43 34 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 08:16:04 09:14:35 00:55:37 04:02:52 03:12:35 100% +0% -0% (5) 188
44 32 Raymond Botelho USA 08:20:33 09:35:33 00:55:35 03:48:46 03:31:11 32% +36% -31% (14) 241
45 43 Douglas MacLean USA 08:21:16 09:25:38 00:59:36 04:04:27 03:12:14 83% +5% -12% (13) 210
46 41 Colin Laughery USA 08:21:22 09:24:43 01:02:09 04:00:08 03:14:05 100% +0% -0% (2) (209)
47 47 Patrick Schuster USA 08:30:28 09:42:52 01:04:52 03:55:26 03:25:11 50% +25% -24% (7) 251
48 27 Andres Darricau Arg 08:32:01 09:44:52 00:56:16 04:09:18 03:21:27 7% +93% -0% (2) (255)
49 38 Peter Kotland CZE 08:46:54 09:55:53 01:01:04 04:05:18 03:35:32 54% +26% -21% (21) 269
50 30 Jonathan Fecik USA 08:55:26 10:05:32 00:59:07 03:55:19 03:56:00 38% +0% -62% (2) (281)
33 Aaron Gray USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Patrick Lange GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
52 Josh Terwoord USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 62 Julia Gajer GER 08:18:48 09:17:12 00:54:47 04:08:13 03:10:48 77% +0% -23% (11) 9
2 61 Kelly Williamson USA 08:19:16 09:30:43 00:54:41 04:19:49 02:59:46 77% +12% -11% (12) 27
3 64 Sarah Piampiano USA 08:25:44 09:32:16 01:04:13 04:05:18 03:11:12 41% +47% -12% (14) 32
4 63 Rebekah Keat AUS 08:29:34 09:25:16 00:55:22 04:11:31 03:17:42 85% +1% -14% (22) (20)
5 66 Amanda Stevens USA 08:29:43 09:30:05 00:53:25 04:12:19 03:18:59 60% +21% -19% (17) 26
6 69 Lisa Roberts USA 08:32:53 09:37:54 01:06:32 04:13:42 03:07:39 76% +3% -21% (16) 41
7 72 Katy Blakemore USA 08:35:53 09:50:10 00:53:54 04:14:49 03:22:09 67% +13% -20% (8) 65
8 67 Bree Wee USA 08:36:37 09:48:38 00:55:45 04:13:31 03:22:21 60% +7% -32% (22) 62
9 65 Emma-Kate Lidbury GBR 08:41:50 09:48:00 00:55:20 04:09:24 03:32:06 100% +0% -0% (2) (61)
10 90 Darbi Roberts USA 08:43:04 09:58:23 00:54:45 04:16:54 03:26:25 37% +0% -63% (5) 86
11 78 Kirsty Jahn CAN 08:43:24 09:57:44 01:01:48 04:22:26 03:14:10 100% +0% -0% (1) (84)
12 85 Mackenzie Madison USA 08:45:29 09:49:27 01:00:42 04:15:41 03:24:06 69% +0% -31% (11) 63
13 70 Jen Annett CAN 08:52:38 10:07:05 01:05:55 04:16:23 03:25:20 34% +34% -32% (4) 103
14 81 Jessica Meyers USA 08:52:43 10:04:43 01:01:03 04:17:49 03:28:51 100% +0% -0% (5) 95
15 75 Saleta Castro ESP 08:54:43 10:11:01 00:57:39 04:23:03 03:29:01 53% +47% -0% (8) 110
16 77 Christine Hammond USA 08:55:59 10:03:39 00:56:35 04:20:01 03:34:23 100% +0% -0% (7) (93)
17 87 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 08:59:13 10:22:47 01:00:35 04:20:08 03:33:30 41% +0% -59% (4) (142)
18 84 Heather Leiggi USA 09:00:40 10:20:03 01:02:38 04:19:41 03:33:21 46% +13% -41% (6) 135
19 76 Christine Fletcher CAN 09:06:44 10:10:27 01:00:55 04:21:09 03:39:40 92% +8% -0% (20) 109
20 86 Caroline Martineau CAN 09:12:29 10:46:58 01:05:09 04:25:47 03:36:33 20% +49% -31% (4) 177
21 80 Amy Javens USA 09:17:34 10:23:37 01:09:09 04:19:41 03:43:44 100% +0% -0% (5) 145
22 79 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 09:18:10 10:29:05 01:03:16 04:30:28 03:39:26 100% +0% -0% (5) (161)
23 83 Angela Kuehnlein GER 09:20:47 10:30:33 01:04:47 04:33:39 03:37:21 61% +0% -39% (5) 164
24 82 Corrie Kristick USA 09:35:56 11:00:48 00:53:56 04:15:11 04:21:48 44% +0% -56% (2) (181)
25 74 Terry Casey USA 09:53:56 11:12:19 01:00:49 04:27:57 04:20:10 100% +0% -0% (1) (182)
68 Alicia Kaye USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
71 Liz Baugher USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
73 Lauren Brandon USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
88 Carrie Mccoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
89 Kathy Rakel USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
91 Jodie Robertson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

While Nils Frommhold is my statistical pick for the win, the shortened bike course should play into the hands of defending champion Matt Hanson and other strong runners such as Jeff Symonds, Matt Russell or Callum Millward. The Spaniards Eneko Llanos and Clemente Alonso will contend for the podium when healthy, but I can’t really see them winning. The shortened bike will negate a large part of the strengths of Jordan Rapp, Michael Weiss and especially Andy Strarykowicz:

  • Nils Frommhold: 26% (3-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 17% (5-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 13% (7-1)
  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 12% (7-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 9% (10-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 7% (13-1)
  • Jeff Symonds: 6% (17-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 4% (25-1)
  • Callum Millward: 2% (54-1)

Female Race Participants

On the female side the data points to another German winner: Julia Gajer is the pre-race favorite. But Julia and also Sarah Piampiano will need to have a great run to be able to take the win, especially as the shortened bike course will improve the chances of Kelly Williamson. With Amanda Stevens it’s hard to assess how fresh she is going to be (she raced New Zealand in March), and Rebekah Keat hasn’t raced an Ironman in more than two years. Lisa Roberts could be a surprise contender on race day – she’s got excellent bike skills and is also a fast runner.

  • Julia Gajer: 44% (1-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 22% (4-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 19% (4-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 5% (17-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 4% (22-1)
  • Lisa Roberts: 2% (42-1)
0

Challenge Taiwan 2016 (May 7th) – Predictions

CHTaiwan

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:16:21 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:23:15
2014 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:23:44 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:02:23

The full distance race took a break in 2015, but it’s back for 2016.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:46:11 04:29:02 03:03:40 08:23:44
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:52:26 04:31:33 02:56:09 08:24:22
3 Jason Shortis AUS 00:55:37 04:26:56 02:57:39 08:25:32

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Britta Martin NZL 00:58:21 04:54:37 03:04:16 09:02:23
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:02:28 04:57:36 03:26:30 09:31:25
3 Belinda Granger AUS 00:55:29 05:04:46 03:40:11 09:45:06

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:21 Dylan McNeice 2013-05-04
Swim overall 00:46:11 Dylan McNeice 2014-04-19
Bike overall 04:26:56 Jason Shortis 2014-04-19
Run overall 02:52:33 Fredrik Croneborg 2013-05-04
Total female 09:02:23 Britta Martin 2014-04-19
Swim female 00:53:23 Hillary Biscay 2014-04-19
Bike female 04:54:37 Britta Martin 2014-04-19
Run female 03:04:16 Britta Martin 2014-04-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Taiwan is 15:36.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Taiwan

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 12:43 -04:40 12:28 05:14 14 12:43 -04:40 12:28 05:14
2014 18:29 -00:55 11:11 -01:06 17 of 22 15:36 -02:48 11:50 02:04

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:25:09 08:47:46 00:53:13 04:33:50 02:53:06 77% +5% -18% (9) 77
2 1 Dylan McNeice NZL 08:26:58 08:55:40 00:47:03 04:33:16 03:01:38 48% +13% -39% (14) 108
3 5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:44:11 09:01:02 00:58:11 04:38:51 03:02:09 80% +1% -19% (92) 124
4 3 Patrick Evoe USA 08:44:56 08:57:58 00:59:05 04:35:55 03:04:56 84% +5% -11% (21) 114
  4 Tomas Racek CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated   (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 7 Jessica Fleming AUS 09:33:58 09:54:54 01:03:18 04:59:54 03:25:46 84% +0% -16% (6) 76
2 9 Vanessa Murray NZL 09:37:44 10:06:53 00:56:33 05:11:52 03:24:19 100% +0% -0% (1) (103)
3 6 Kathrin Walther GER 09:39:32 10:15:58 01:02:48 05:02:42 03:29:02 14% +42% -44% (7) 119
4 10 Marina Jurjevic AUS 10:00:49 10:18:51 01:09:15 05:09:03 03:37:31 64% +0% -36% (5) 127
5 8 Kathryn Haesner NZL 10:54:10 11:27:10 01:02:15 05:56:04 03:50:50 100% +0% -0% (1) (181)
  11 Jenny Lee TWN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated   (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Fredrik Croneborg: 57% (1-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 28% (3-1)
  • Patrick Evoe: 8% (12-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 7% (13-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Jessica Fleming: 44% (1-1)
  • Kathrin Walther: 40% (1-1)
  • Marina Jurjevic: 7% (14-1)
  • Vanessa Murray: 6% (17-1)
0

Ironman Australia 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in Port Macquarie were decent for some fast times: A typically fast swim (adjustment of 2:20), cloudy and not too much wind on the bike (adjustment of 2:40, a bit faster than normal) developed into rainy conditions on the run – not too many people dealing with the heat this year! Even if we saw a number of fast runs today, the run adjustment of 1:24 was a bit slower than what we’ve seen in previous years. The overall adjustment of 3:32 was in line with PortMac’s course rating of 4:27.

Dougal Allen posted a new bike course record – his 4:27:51 improved Paul Ambrose’s 4:31 from 2012. Tim Reed’s winning time of 8:16:34 was a new overall course record (old one was 8:17, also by Paul Ambrose from 2012). In addition, Beth Gerdes posted a new run course record, her 2:56:10 improved on Lisa Bentley’s 3:01 from 2006.

Male Race Results

Clayton Fettell was the leader in T1 and T2, and he put together a solid 3:07 run, an excellent time for him. Still this wasn’t a match for Tim Reed’s 2:51:32 who posted the fastest run of the day. Tim took the lead around 26k and was never challenged after that. David Dellow had the second best male run and managed to pass Clayton shortly before the finish for second place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Tim Reed AUS 00:47:00 04:34:30 02:51:32 08:16:34 -29:31 US$ 10000
2 David Dellow AUS 00:44:42 04:36:48 02:57:23 08:22:18 -00:37 US$ 5000
3 Clayton Fettell AUS 00:43:47 04:29:14 03:07:02 08:23:22 -19:28 US$ 3250
4 Michael Fox AUS 00:44:38 04:39:05 02:59:24 08:26:12 -21:14 US$ 2500
5 Dougal Allan NZL 00:56:30 04:27:51 03:01:42 08:29:15 01:34 US$ 1750
6 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:46:52 04:45:42 03:00:15 08:36:19 -20:25 US$ 1250
7 Adam Gordon AUS 00:52:40 04:41:25 03:01:08 08:38:56 -31:40 US$ 750
8 Jarmo Hast FIN 00:46:57 05:02:54 03:06:33 09:00:41 10:32 US$ 500
9 Samuel Murphy AUS 00:53:51 05:09:06 03:02:57 09:09:05 n/a
10 James Lubinski USA 00:58:45 05:05:44 03:14:41 09:23:10 01:13
11 Lindsey Wall AUS 00:47:02 05:05:03 03:32:29 09:28:21 n/a
12 Darren Jenkins AUS 01:07:21 05:04:26 03:14:58 09:31:55 21:51
13 Caleb Noble AUS 00:46:58 05:25:49 04:24:47 10:41:05 n/a
Josh Amberger AUS 00:43:47 04:42:29 DNF
Paul Ambrose AUS 00:46:53 04:41:55 DNF
Leigh Stabryla AUS 00:50:46 05:35:27 DNF
Casey Munro AUS 00:44:41 DNF
Luke Bell AUS 00:44:45 DNF

Female Race Results

Defending champion Michelle Bremer took control of the race on the bike, quickly passing T1 leader Gina Crawford who DNF’d with mechanical issues on the bike. Michelle built a twelve minute lead into T2. She was followed by Beth Gerdes who posted the second best bike split and had her sights on bigger goals. Before the race I predicted that Beth would run about 15 minutes quicker than Michelle. That turned out to be about right, but Michelle posted a new personal marathon best of 3:11 and pushed Beth to a 2:56 marathon to take the win. Beth’s 2:56 is the second fastest time overall (including the men!), a new run course record and the first sub-3 of 2016. Both Beth and Michelle raced about 21 minutes quicker than predicted! Third place went to Dimity-Lee Duke who was solid all day but couldn’t match the run paces of the the first two.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Beth Gerdes USA 00:56:47 05:13:54 02:56:10 09:10:28 -21:47 US$ 10000
2 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:54:28 05:03:54 03:11:46 09:13:34 -21:23 US$ 5000
3 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:56:51 05:17:25 03:24:17 09:42:16 00:05 US$ 3250
4 Melanie Burke NZL 01:01:31 05:24:27 03:26:54 09:56:54 09:38 US$ 2500
5 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 01:01:30 05:25:21 03:36:36 10:07:41 00:08 US$ 1750
6 Wendy Mcalpine AUS 00:54:26 05:27:04 03:45:59 10:12:00 22:30 US$ 1250
7 Amy Javens USA 01:04:22 05:24:48 03:41:40 10:15:15 02:31 US$ 750
8 Alison Fitch AUS 00:54:32 05:48:40 03:48:47 10:36:58 51:00 US$ 500
9 Kristy Hallett AUS 01:01:16 06:00:10 03:37:01 10:43:01 24:02
10 Jessica Richards AUS 01:07:03 05:26:03 04:06:58 10:44:19 n/a
Gina Crawford NZL 00:51:57 DNF
0

Ironman Australia 2016 (May 1st) – Predictions

IMAUSLogo Update (Apr 27th): Brad Kahlefeldt announced on Instagram that he suffered a labral tear during his last long training run after avoiding a dog attack. He hopes to be back to running after a short break and then race IM Cairns.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:25:44 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:13:20
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:20:42 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:19:44
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:21:49 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:12:59
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:31:32 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:03:54
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:24:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:57:10
2010 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:23:54 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:23:46
2011 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:29:28 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:29:54
2012 Paul Ambrose (AUS) 08:17:38 Michelle Gailey (AUS) 09:34:57
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:30:23 Rebecca Hoschke (AUS) 09:34:55
2014 Elliot Holtham (CAN) 08:35:18 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 09:28:43
2015 Paul Ambrose (AUS) 08:35:53 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:38:24

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Paul Ambrose AUS 00:47:34 04:39:24 03:05:22 08:35:53
2 Luke Bell AUS 00:44:58 04:49:01 03:01:01 08:38:34
3 Brian Fuller AUS 00:48:28 04:49:53 03:08:30 08:49:39

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:53:13 05:18:15 03:23:17 09:38:24
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 00:56:26 05:11:50 03:30:35 09:42:18
3 Michelle Gailey AUS 00:52:54 05:24:59 03:28:56 09:50:51

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:17:38 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Swim overall 00:44:24 Luke Bell 2014-05-04
Bike overall 04:31:25 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Run overall 02:47:20 Tim Van Berkel 2012-04-29
Total female 08:57:10 Chrissie Wellington 2009-04-05
Swim female 00:48:42 Melissa Ashton 2006-05-11
Bike female 05:00:57 Carrie Lester 2010-03-28
Run female 03:01:06 Lisa Bentley 2006-05-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Australia is 04:32.

Race Adjustments for IM Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 01:23 02:10 -07:18 00:32 30 01:23 02:10 -07:18 00:32
2007 03:43 01:45 -05:11 00:32 36 02:33 01:58 -06:15 00:32
2008 01:05 00:00 -02:59 00:48 24 02:03 01:18 -05:09 00:37
2009 02:39 -00:16 -04:18 02:26 28 02:12 00:55 -04:57 01:04
2010 08:03 04:55 02:30 00:04 18 03:22 01:43 -03:27 00:52
2011 02:12 02:16 -02:28 01:46 14 03:11 01:48 -03:17 01:01
2012 05:11 02:22 01:24 03:52 9 03:28 01:53 -02:37 01:26
2013 12:01 01:37 -03:18 07:56 9 04:32 01:51 -02:42 02:14
2014 11:02 03:35 -02:25 08:23 15 of 17 05:15 02:03 -02:40 02:55
2015 -01:55 02:36 -00:10 -00:37 18 of 24 04:32 02:06 -02:25 02:34

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

This is the first time I’m including a “Consistency” in my pre-race post. It shows the fraction of races where an athlete has been about as expected (the first number), significantly faster (the number with the “+”) or significantly slower (including DNFs, the number with the “-“) and also the total number of IM starts. For more information have a look at my post on “Consistency of Athletes“.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 08:22:52 08:42:29 00:44:05 04:46:31 02:47:16 43% +0% -57% (2) (59)
2 4 David Dellow AUS 08:24:37 08:26:12 00:46:02 04:41:35 02:52:00 58% +3% -39% (12) 14
3 7 Dougal Allan NZL 08:28:47 08:36:07 00:56:30 04:30:56 02:56:20 70% +13% -17% (6) 39
4 1 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:34:11 08:54:58 00:47:17 04:40:06 03:01:48 47% +4% -48% (19) 103
5 2 Luke Bell AUS 08:34:31 08:59:15 00:45:08 04:44:53 02:59:29 23% +5% -72% (26) 119
6 14 Mitch Dean AUS 08:45:02 09:00:07 00:46:37 04:50:15 03:03:09 100% +0% -0% (1) (124)
7 6 Tim Reed AUS 08:47:15 08:59:59 00:45:44 04:44:43 03:11:48 23% +28% -50% (3) (122)
8 8 Casey Munro AUS 08:47:29 09:02:28 00:45:05 04:43:37 03:13:47 47% +0% -53% (4) (133)
9 5 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:48:54 08:46:08 00:45:12 04:46:42 03:11:59 20% +0% -80% (6) 72
10 17 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:49:42 08:53:41 00:48:41 04:55:29 03:00:32 48% +6% -46% (13) 97
11 15 Michael Fox AUS 08:51:33 09:06:50 00:46:53 04:57:32 03:02:08 100% +0% -0% (1) (155)
12 13 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:53:25 09:05:31 00:49:07 04:54:56 03:04:22 78% +16% -5% (15) 153
13 11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:55:05 08:55:59 00:52:15 04:46:05 03:11:45 52% +0% -48% (16) 109
14 16 Adam Gordon AUS 09:03:16 09:19:33 00:52:35 05:06:16 02:59:26 13% +61% -26% (3) 199
15 18 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:11:58 09:19:21 01:02:04 05:05:08 02:59:46 80% +0% -20% (7) 198
16 19 James Lubinski USA 09:16:06 09:37:00 00:59:50 05:03:26 03:07:49 34% +29% -37% (15) 242
17 12 Allister Caird AUS 09:17:18 09:33:19 00:54:17 05:04:36 03:13:25 53% +0% -47% (2) (233)
18 22 Matt Randall NZL 09:50:49 10:00:14 00:56:16 05:02:31 03:47:02 55% +0% -45% (5) 275
9 Josh Amberger AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Levi Maxwell AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Samuel Murphy AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Caleb Noble AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Leigh Stabryla AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Lindsey Wall AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

This is the first time I’m including a “Consistency” in my pre-race post. It shows the fraction of races where an athlete has been about as expected (the first number), significantly faster (the number with the “+”) or significantly slower (including DNFs, the number with the “-“) and also the total number of IM starts. For more information have a look at my post on “Consistency of Athletes“.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 32 Gina Crawford NZL 09:23:30 09:25:14 00:50:11 05:17:22 03:10:56 78% +2% -20% (37) 20
2 33 Beth Gerdes USA 09:25:35 09:35:51 00:58:02 05:19:53 03:02:40 47% +40% -14% (12) 40
3 31 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:33:00 09:44:22 00:54:33 05:15:27 03:18:00 91% +0% -9% (10) 53
4 37 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:36:50 10:08:41 00:51:09 05:11:48 03:28:54 16% +13% -71% (13) (107)
5 35 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:41:50 09:46:00 00:58:20 05:22:03 03:16:27 71% +29% -0% (8) 56
6 34 Melanie Burke NZL 09:44:52 09:51:11 01:01:46 05:19:03 03:19:02 74% +15% -11% (10) 69
7 41 Alison Fitch AUS 09:46:04 09:50:08 00:51:39 05:20:13 03:29:12 100% +0% -0% (7) (65)
8 40 Wendy Mcalpine AUS 09:54:24 10:11:29 00:55:54 05:22:35 03:30:55 100% +0% -0% (1) (112)
9 38 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:04:12 10:23:50 00:55:49 05:21:26 03:41:56 35% +15% -50% (9) (145)
10 36 Amy Javens USA 10:16:37 10:22:56 01:04:39 05:28:37 03:38:21 100% +0% -0% (4) 141
11 39 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:17:30 10:29:26 01:00:08 05:31:15 03:41:07 58% +28% -15% (6) 160
42 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
43 Jessica Richards AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Even if almost all the athletes are from Australia or New Zealand, it’ll be an interesting, wide open race: Most of the top-rated athletes have been struggling a bit lately. Brad Kahlefeldt has only finished one IM, followed by a DNF in Kona. David Dellow had a fantastic sub-8 in Roth but also a string of DNFs. Dougal Allan has already been racing a lot this year, posting bike records in Wanaka and at IM New Zealand, but it’s unclear if he’s recovered well for another fast race. Defending champion Paul Ambrose is seeded fourth in my data, if he has a good day he’ll be the one to watch. Luke Bell is another great athlete, but he’s been quite inconsistent lately. Tim Reed is returning to the IM distance after a DNF in Western Australia – as a strong swimmer he’ll be in the mix for a long time, but he’ll need a solid run for a solid Ironman finish.

In addition, with Josh Amberger and Levi Maxwell there are two Ironman-rookies that make predicting the race even harder.

  • Dougal Allan: 29% (2-1)
  • David Dellow: 27% (3-1)
  • Brad Kahlefeldt: 20% (4-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 11% (8-1)
  • Luke Bell: 11% (8-1)

Female Race Participants

Gina Crawford is clearly the best rated athlete in the women’s field, but she hasn’t had many good results lately and seems to be dialing back her racing career this year. This would put US athlete (but currently Australian-based) Beth Gerdes into the favorite’s role. Beth will be eying Lisa Bentley’s run record (3:01:06) – and so far we haven’t had a sub-3 women’s run this year. Defending champion Michelle Bremer should be in front of Beth for the swim and bike, but Michelle will need another new run PR (she just ran 3:14 at IM New Zealand) to defend her title.

  • Gina Crawford: 35% (2-1)
  • Beth Gerdes: 33% (2-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 19% (4-1)
  • Lisa Marangon: 6% (15-1)
  • Dimity-Lee Duke: 3% (29-1)
0

Ironman South Africa 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

After a typically slow swim the new bike course proved to be much quicker than the old one. It remains to be seen if this was because most of the harder hills were cut from the course or because conditions were favorable this year – reportedly there wasn’t much wind. Even with the fast conditions we didn’t see any new course records – even if Ben Hoffman would probably have been able to find 3 seconds somewhere to break Gerrit Schellens run course record from 2007!

Male Race Results

After leading out of the swim, Marko Albert was at the front for the bike as well, even if he had some company with Bas Diederen and Ben Collins. Bas was the first into T2, but he struggled on the run, and Marko was leading the race until 15k. He then dropped back into fourth place, but rallied in the final stretch to pass Matt Trautmann and claimed the third spot on the podium. The quickest runners were Ben Hoffmann and Tim Van Berkel who had reached T2 just three minute behind the leaders, and Ben proved to be the stronger of the two. With 2:45:50 he posted the fastest marathon of the day, missing the run course record by only two seconds! Tim finished in second place.

Ben received an Automatic Qualifier slot for Kona, and both Tim and Matt should have enough points for Kona, as do fifth and sixth place finishers Boris Stein and Ruedi Wild (who had the best relative performance of the day, more than an hour quicker than expected!). Marko will still need a few more points to qualify for Kona.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Ben Hoffman USA 00:52:58 04:29:36 02:45:50 08:12:37 -19:39 US$ 30000
2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:50:00 04:32:33 02:48:15 08:14:51 -15:28 US$ 15000
3 Marko Albert EST 00:49:37 04:30:53 02:54:19 08:18:52 -14:58 US$ 8000
4 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:54:18 04:31:28 02:49:39 08:19:25 -02:22 US$ 6500
5 Boris Stein GER 00:54:24 04:28:17 02:52:52 08:19:51 -07:34 US$ 5000
6 Ruedi Wild SUI 00:52:56 04:38:12 02:49:28 08:24:47 -1:07:53 US$ 3500
7 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:54:32 04:39:03 02:50:58 08:29:37 05:02 US$ 2500
8 Christian Kramer GER 00:49:59 04:33:13 03:01:47 08:29:57 -05:24 US$ 2000
9 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:10 04:34:36 02:58:24 08:32:11 10:46 US$ 1500
10 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:54:25 04:42:07 02:53:01 08:34:03 00:39 US$ 1000
11 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:51:20 04:31:39 03:07:20 08:34:48 00:01
12 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:54:20 04:36:46 03:03:05 08:38:31 -06:02
13 Markus Thomschke GER 00:57:12 04:36:21 03:00:32 08:38:52 -10:38
14 Ivan Risti ITA 00:52:19 04:41:16 03:07:23 08:45:36 -16:15
15 Ben Collins USA 00:49:51 04:41:55 03:08:39 08:46:24 06:57
16 Mike Aigroz SUI 00:52:12 04:41:27 03:11:09 08:48:52 08:40
17 David Plese SLO 00:55:05 04:38:35 03:15:07 08:53:38 18:38
18 Tomas Mika CZE 00:57:53 04:51:52 03:00:17 08:55:47 -04:12
19 Frederic Limousin FRA 00:55:01 04:52:33 03:14:46 09:08:07 -17:52
20 Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:49:51 05:16:55 03:00:02 09:12:31 26:44
21 Olivier Godart LUX 01:00:26 04:53:56 03:19:53 09:19:02 21:34
22 Michael Davidson ZAF 01:01:34 04:51:55 03:24:14 09:22:57 30:54
23 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:54:27 04:34:49 03:50:23 09:24:28 36:13
24 Bas Diederen NED 00:49:47 04:29:42 04:06:33 09:30:33 1:11:20
25 Eric Watson AUS 00:49:38 05:21:11 03:17:28 09:34:46 -07:41
26 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:57:16 04:50:45 03:46:27 09:39:51 28:26
27 Thomas De Schutter BEL 01:02:20 05:04:07 03:35:54 09:47:19 n/a
28 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 01:00:14 04:55:17 03:49:26 09:51:18 12:35
29 Simon Brierley SEY 01:02:24 05:15:59 04:17:23 10:41:54 06:28
James Cunnama ZAF 00:51:55 04:35:43 DNF
Oliver Simon GBR 00:52:53 04:50:26 DNF
Darby Thomas FIN 01:02:23 04:43:23 DNF
Greg Close USA 01:00:18 04:49:26 DNF
Freddy Lampret ZAF 00:54:38 04:57:32 DNF
Andrej Vistica CRO 01:01:23 04:55:00 DNF
Frederic Garcia FRA 00:57:49 05:07:24 DNF
Marek Nemcik SVK 01:23:32 DNF

Female Race Results

As expected Jodie Swallow was the fastest swimmer and in the lead on the bike. But at about 110k into the ride she fell hard without being clear what caused the crash. She was able to continue on the bike but had hurt her elbow and was loosing time to Annabel Luxford who was leading in T2 by 6 minutes over Jodie. Jodie started the run but had to call it a day after 8k. (I’m wishing her a speedy recovery and look forward to see her again at the front of her next race!) Bella had the fastest bike split by more than six minutes, but she posted after the race that she might have ridden a bit too hard. After Jodie withdrew Bella had a gap of more than 12 minutes to the speedy runners behind her, but that was only good enough for 20k. Kaisa Lehtonen proved that her second place at IM Barcelona was just the start and claimed her first Ironman title with the fastest run split. The second and third from last year took repeated this year but traded places: Susie Cheetham again had the better run and claimed second place, but Lucy Gossage’s third place only four weeks after her second place at IM New Zealand is an amazing result. Asa Lundstroem in fourth place had a solid race all day, she also passed Bella who ended up in fifth place.

As a Regional Champion Kaisa receives an Automatic Qualifier slot. After their great results in Kona and in Port Elizabeth Susie, Lucy, Asa and Annabel have enough points to be safe for a July slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 00:58:21 04:59:41 03:02:34 09:06:50 -11:46 US$ 30000
2 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:58:21 05:04:26 03:02:43 09:09:49 -02:39 US$ 15000
3 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:03:20 04:56:10 03:07:36 09:11:43 -01:23 US$ 8000
4 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:03:30 04:58:18 03:08:33 09:15:34 -12:35 US$ 6500
5 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:56:07 04:49:17 03:37:50 09:28:32 11:16 US$ 5000
6 Verena Walter GER 01:03:24 05:08:18 03:18:02 09:35:36 -21:36 US$ 3500
7 Bianca Steurer AUT 01:02:53 05:09:13 03:22:31 09:39:25 -04:45 US$ 2500
8 Annah Watkinson ZAF 01:03:20 05:17:58 03:17:42 09:44:11 n/a US$ 2000
9 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:16:21 05:09:59 03:18:51 09:50:27 -04:59 US$ 1500
10 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:58:16 05:13:11 03:43:14 10:01:19 15:26 US$ 1000
11 Rahel Bellinga NED 01:09:44 05:06:54 03:38:34 10:02:08 -25:25
12 Annett Finger GER 01:04:34 05:21:11 03:41:51 10:13:08 19:37
13 Darbi Roberts USA 00:58:23 05:30:14 03:51:38 10:27:36 58:05
Jodie Swallow GBR 00:52:11 05:00:00 DNF
Lina-Kristin Schink GER 01:14:23 05:24:30 DNF
Claire Horner ZAF 01:03:25 DNF
2

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