Liz Lyles Looking for Her Next Win

American Professional Liz Lyles is one of the favorites going into the Regional Championships at IM Brasil on May 29th. She faces strong competition, mainly by last year’s winner Ariane Monticelli, IM France winner Caitlin Snow and two fast German Pros, Mareen Hufe (one of the best bikers in female triathlon) and Kristin Möller (one of the best runners). I’ve had the chance to chat with Liz about the challenges she faces, her last season and the expectations for this year.

Juggling Family and Training

Liz discovered triathlon in 2001, but didn’t turn Pro until August 2012 – after becoming a mother to son Luke (born 2008) and daughter Emma (born 2010). She has to squeeze her training between taking care of the children. When we talked, she asked to start at 9:15am (“because I drop my kids at the bus at 9:10”) – and she had a long run scheduled afterwards.

“Yesterday I had a long swim and a bike. I got home at 3:40 and had to be at the bus stop at 3:45. So I just grabbed my keys and went into the car still in my bike clothes to get the kids. When we got home all I wanted to do is to shower and lay down. Instead I had to do dinner, do the laundry, get groceries and so on. Before a big training block I try to warn everybody because I can get a little impatient by 5 o’clock at night.

“This weekend I’m going to do a Century Ride .. that helps because they provide nutrition, there’ll be other cyclists on the road and I don’t have to watch for traffic on my own. We’ll bring our travel trailer. The kids love camping, so we go down on Friday and camp close to the start. Then on Saturday I do the century ride and a run. In the meantime [husband] Chip and the kids are fishing and having a good time. On Sunday morning I’ll have a long 20-mile run while they do some more fishing, then I’ll come back and join in. It’s a good way for a little family vacation where I can safely train.

“I love looking at rankings and results but I have four hundred other things to occupy my mind: Did my son win his baseball game? Is Emma going to score a goal in soccer? I can’t really compare myself to what other professionals are doing .. it’s a different life. But I’m stoked about having my kids and my family.”

Improving

Liz won her Pro Ironman debut race at Wisconsin 2012 with a sub-3 run. She qualified for Kona 2013 (16th place) and won IM Western Australia with a sub-9 finish. In 2014 she was second at IM Germany and finished Kona in 7th place as the top US female athlete. She started her 2015 season with a win at Wildflower over defending champion Heather Jackson in a finish chute sprint duel and a second place at the Regional Championships in Brasil.

“I won Wisconsin 2012, that was back when I didn’t know how to bike. Being a Professional was fresh and exciting and new. I bike slower, my legs felt fresh at the start of the run and I ran a 2:59:33. My times have come down in the swim and especially on the bike.

“My best IMs were not my wins but when I got second in Frankfurt and in Brasil and of course Kona when I got 7th. If I want to win one of the Regionals or podium in Kona, I have to get stronger and more comfortable towards the last 20 miles of the bike – so feeling fresher at mile 90. But also at mile 112 so I can get off the bike and straight into my pace for the run.

Liz Lyles

Photo Credit: © Kaori Photo 2016 / kaoriphoto.com / Used with permission.

“The next couple of weeks on the long rides I’ll focus to take in the nutrition. On the bike I try to carry all my nutrition and only stop for water. On the run I’m on my own and no one gives me my water bottle every couple of minutes. It’s much easier in the race with all the aid stations.”

Summer 2015

Liz lined up at IM Canada in Whistler, but she had to abandon quite early on the bike as she was hypothermic in the cold rain that surprised all the racers. Three weeks later she raced IM Mont Tremblant but had a sub-standard 7th place finish in 9:42 and a disappointing 3:24 run.

“The first half of 2015 was great, but then it all went downhill with that stupid cold weather front at IM Whistler. I felt that was my chance to pick up another IM title. I just completed 14 miles of the bike – it was freezing cold. Some guy picked me up in his truck and I later met him in Kona. He said ‘Liz, I rescued you from the side of the road in Whistler’ and I didn’t remember anything. At Wildflower I met a guy who had also been picked up and we rode in the ambulance together to the Expo area. He said he tried to talk to me and that I was blue and shaking, but I don’t even recall much of that.

“I really wanted to race and I jumped into some more Ironman training. When the race in Mont Tremblant started I felt depleted and had a pretty bad race there. And after that Kona was next. I didn’t like training for three Ironmen in a row. I’ll never try that sort of thing again. When building for an IM I really like to race half IMs to get the speed and then take it down a notch for the Ironman in terms of effort.

“My kids go on summer break. All summer I was training for an IM and it wasn’t fun for anyone in our family. This year I’m going to do Brasil and then when the summer break starts in June, I’ll spend some more time with them and don’t want to be stressed about racing. When they go back to school in August I can pick up the big training then. I’m just learning that I have to plan around when it’s going to be easier for me to train. ”

Kona 2015

In Kona Liz finished 14th with a solid race, but that result was overshadowed by a number of great performances such as by the top US finishers Heather Jackson (5th) and Sarah Piampiano (7th).

“I was happy with the swim – I was in the second pack and we had put three to five minutes to the next group. But the Top 10 swimmers more or less rode together while the athletes around me just fell away: Heather Wurtele got her mechanical, Julia Gajer and Rinnie had bad days. The year before I had biked with Heather, Rinnie and Julia in a legal group until about the climb to Hawi where it broke up. I was riding in a group, I felt great, super comfortable pace. This year I don’t know where everybody went, and I was on my own for the whole bike ride. I was just alone pushing. When I was passed by Heather Jackson and Asa Lundstrom after the turnaround at Hawi I didn’t have any energy to go with them. Maybe I lost some speed just training for Ironman. With my fitness I also should have been able to run faster. It was a rough and lonely day.”

2016 Season

Liz approaches the 2016 season a bit differently: She raced a number of 70.3s at the start of season. That worked well for her, she defended her Wildflower title. Now she is looking towards the South American Regional Championship in Brazil at the end of May.

“Looking at a 12 week training block here in Reno it’s hard to stay motivated because I’m always training alone. So this year I’m racing to keep my interest level high. It’s been fun so far – I love getting a bit of rest before the races and then having a couple of easy days afterwards. Panama was just to get out and get some fitness, I knew I wasn’t going to be ready just coming off the trainer. It was pretty hot and humid. My mom and I had a great time to visit the sights. It was a good way to get out but I knew I had a lot of work to do.

“The focus is on Brasil. The weekend before Wildflower I had a hard 20 mile run. Last year at Wildflower it was ‘bike as hard as you can who cares what happens’. I usually like to start the run being down a small gap, to be able to see the front and to pace myself off that. I prefer chasing, but not the three minutes I had last year, maybe one minute. That last downhill run mile is a steep downhill and [defending champion] Heather [Jackson] and I ran it at an all out sprint. This year I pretty much knew I had it so I cruised it down. ‘Okay, Brasil is next so don’t kill your knee.’

“My mom is coming back to Brasil with me this year – we love that place. Last year I had a terrible swim. I got lost and could have been two minute faster on the swim. Around mile 80 the legitimate ten-men-draft packs started to move through. I’m not willing to take a risk [to get a penalty] so I sit up, let them pass and join back in when I’m twelve meters back. It sucks, but it’s what you have to do. I pushed the bike pretty hard last year, maybe too hard so I hope I can run a bit quicker. Coming back to a course I always do better the second time I do it.”

I hope the women’s race in Florianopolis will be as exciting and close as last year when there were six different athletes in the lead on the run. I’m sure Liz will once again be among those that will play an important role. To secure a Kona slot a Top 5 finish should be enough for her, but she has her sights a bit higher: Only winning would be better than last year’s second place. I hope she’ll have a great day of racing on May 29th!

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What Happened to GPS Coverage of the Pro Races?

In January 2015 Ironman announced enhanced race coverage of major races, including GPS tracking devices feeding into a new athlete tracking platform (see my post looking at the details). This post looks at the progress Ironman has made during last year and where things are for this season.

2015 Season

GPS tracking was off to a slow start. At the Regional Championships Pros were given a tracker that they had to carry on the bike and run. The following photo shows the tracker on the left compared to an iPhone 5 (the photo doesn’t show that the tracker is about three times as thick as an iPhone):

OldTracker

The Pros had to carry the devices, but for the first Regionals the information was not made publicly available. If you knew where to look, you could see “dots on a map” on a “semi-secret” site by Quarq, the manufacturer of the devices.

Towards the second half of the season (as far as I know starting with IM Frankfurt but also for 70.3 Championships and Kona) the information was integrated into the Ironman website and there was a GPS Leaderboard with constantly updating information showing the time differences between athletes. The old “Athlete Tracker” was replaced by a modernized version with a slicker look and predictions that often were comically wrong. For agegroup athletes the information was still based on the splits from the timing mats.

2016 Season

I was expecting to a see an updated version of the GPS tracking for this season, both in terms of the tracking device (smaller, lighter) and also in the functionality offered to the public. But the first Regional Championships at IM South Africa did not include any GPS information at all, neither publicly not privately.

I reached out to Ironman with some detailed questions but only received a short answer that “there was an issue for the IRONMAN African Championships” and that they are “working to have GPS tracking at the remaining Championship races”.

The North American Championships at IM Texas did in fact provide GPS tracking. A new, smaller device was used:

NewTracker

Apparently these are provided not by Quarq (who continue to offer their race tracking services, for example at Rev3 races as announced in this press release) but by Beacon Athlete Tracking. (I have contacted Beacon Athlete Tracking and they confirmed to be working with Ironman this season to provide GPS tracking but haven’t provided additional information.) Similar to the start of last season, there was a “semi-secret” website for IM Texas with dots on a map but no GPS leaderboard, and no information was available on the Ironman website. Also, the old and much-ridiculed Athlete Tracker was used to show leaderboards and splits for all racers. As has often happened in the past, the tracker had issues and the first two hours of the race no information or splits were available.

My Assessment

One can only assume that Ironman and Quarq had reasons not to continue their relationship, however it is extremely unfortunate that the biggest fans of Ironman racing – those watching the race on site and those trying to follow online –  have to suffer the consequences. So far triathletes following the Regional Championships had to rely on spotter updates from the course and the spotty tracker – very infrequent split information that is not easily available. I can only assume that this also makes the job of the two commenters of the live show, Greg Welch and Michael Lovato, that much harder. Basically things are back to were they were at the start of 2015 and all the progress made during last year has been lost.

While Ironman has stated that they remain committed to providing GPS Tracking for the Pros and their intention to extend that to agegroupers as well, it is hard to discern that from their actions. I hope that they can make quick progress in the next few weeks and at least get us back to the status we had last summer with a working GPS leaderboard and an updated Athlete Tracker for Ironman Frankfurt.

In last year’s post I wrote:

Too often, Ironman efforts have been half-hearted and ultimately disappointing.

Concerning GPS tracking, I sincerely hope that Ironman’s actions will prove me wrong.

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Ironman France 2016 (June 5th) – Predictions

IMFranceLogo Update May 27th: Michael Raelert announced on his Facebook page that he suffers from an infection with the Epstein-Barr virus and won’t be able to race in France.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Herve Faure (FRA) 08:49:06 Mariska Kramer-Postma (NED) 10:12:29
2006 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:33:56 Edith Niederfriniger (ITA) 09:56:32
2007 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:38:45 Alexandra Louison (FRA) 09:49:11
2008 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:34:03 Martina Dogana (ITA) 09:35:29
2009 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:30:06 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:30:29
2010 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:25:28 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:21:29
2011 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:28:30 Silvia Felt (GER) 09:34:31
2012 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:21:51 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:16:05
2013 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:08:59 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:12:54
2014 Bart Aernouts (BEL) 08:33:22 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:12:21
2015 Boris Stein (GER) 08:27:32 Caitlin Snow (USA) 09:24:50

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Boris Stein GER 00:56:58 04:41:18 02:44:20 08:27:32
2 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:58:11 04:44:40 02:42:04 08:30:00
3 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:50:46 04:39:01 03:00:01 08:34:44

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Caitlin Snow USA 00:57:43 05:21:59 02:58:26 09:24:50
2 Lisa Roberts USA 01:03:40 05:21:07 02:54:45 09:26:00
3 Emma Pooley GBR 01:06:40 05:16:34 03:12:35 09:43:48

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:08:59 Frederik Van Lierde 2013-06-23
Swim overall 00:44:18 Gilles Reboul 2006-06-24
Bike overall 04:33:29 Frederik Van Lierde 2013-06-23
Run overall 02:37:01 Bart Aernouts 2013-06-23
Total female 09:12:21 Tine Deckers 2014-06-29
Swim female 00:48:59 Edith Niederfriniger 2006-06-24
Bike female 05:05:22 Christel Robin 2009-06-28
Run female 02:52:26 Caitlin Snow 2014-06-29

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM France is 03:58.

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 08:54 06:08 -01:00 03:29 34 08:54 06:08 -01:00 03:29
2007 07:24 00:21 00:29 07:03 39 08:09 03:14 -00:15 05:16
2008 01:09 -00:39 -01:39 00:38 41 05:49 01:56 -00:43 03:43
2009 03:17 -01:44 00:41 05:34 36 05:11 01:01 -00:22 04:11
2010 10:00 -01:59 -01:27 05:38 32 06:09 00:25 -00:35 04:29
2011 03:18 -00:12 -02:38 02:47 29 05:40 00:19 -00:56 04:12
2012 00:46 00:10 -03:49 04:07 23 04:58 00:18 -01:20 04:11
2013 06:17 00:07 -02:08 09:47 20 05:08 00:16 -01:26 04:53
2014 -02:55 -01:50 -04:52 04:08 26 of 34 04:14 00:02 -01:49 04:48
2015 01:27 -01:36 -05:47 05:00 25 of 34 03:58 -00:08 -02:13 04:49

KPR points and Prize Money

IM France is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:11:44 08:20:27 00:47:33 04:29:40 02:49:32 60% +21% -19% (17) 5
2 4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:28:52 08:39:20 00:49:26 04:42:11 02:52:15 40% +14% -46% (21) 44
3 38 Stefan Schmid GER 08:28:55 08:37:19 00:52:29 04:38:48 02:52:39 44% +56% -0% (11) 37
4 2 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:29:12 08:35:18 00:55:36 04:43:45 02:44:51 63% +0% -37% (12) 30
5 3 Michael Raelert GER 08:34:57 08:47:45 00:47:47 04:46:16 02:55:55 11% +20% -69% (4) (63)
6 10 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:37:10 08:37:29 00:49:20 04:54:25 02:48:25 92% +8% -0% (12) 39
7 6 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:38:55 08:51:13 00:53:05 04:43:44 02:57:06 69% +0% -31% (9) 69
8 12 Herve Faure FRA 08:40:43 08:45:36 00:50:55 04:47:37 02:57:10 45% +0% -55% (8) (58)
9 11 Gwenael Ouilleres FRA 08:46:46 08:56:00 00:51:21 04:57:14 02:53:11 38% +62% -0% (2) 86
10 8 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:47:18 09:03:13 00:48:38 04:42:54 03:10:46 13% +23% -64% (6) 106
11 17 Christian Brader GER 08:48:23 08:54:06 00:56:50 04:53:11 02:53:22 82% +7% -12% (31) 77
12 14 Simon Billeau FRA 08:52:56 08:55:59 00:54:15 04:44:59 03:08:42 52% +0% -48% (16) 85
13 29 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 08:53:19 09:05:29 00:47:36 04:53:36 03:07:08 26% +13% -61% (6) 121
14 50 Antony Costes FRA 08:54:54 09:09:41 00:48:21 04:44:02 03:17:30 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (134)
15 16 Olivier Marceau SUI 08:58:22 09:08:47 00:51:21 04:56:02 03:05:59 91% +9% -0% (4) (130)
16 26 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:03:31 09:11:20 00:55:31 04:54:15 03:08:45 74% +0% -26% (6) 140
17 13 Herve Banti MCO 09:05:51 09:22:19 00:51:37 04:51:35 03:17:38 34% +0% -66% (5) (165)
18 44 Rafael Wyss SUI 09:07:53 09:15:08 00:59:34 04:56:10 03:07:09 87% +13% -0% (16) 154
19 32 Wouter Monchy BEL 09:16:58 09:38:32 00:51:06 05:00:54 03:19:58 48% +52% -0% (2) (210)
20 47 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:20:01 09:31:50 00:53:28 05:06:17 03:15:15 23% +9% -68% (7) 192
21 40 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:24:30 10:05:44 00:56:20 04:54:58 03:28:12 17% +28% -55% (9) 244
22 46 Frederic Garcia FRA 09:25:22 09:40:59 00:56:50 05:12:45 03:10:47 51% +0% -49% (2) (214)
23 15 Guillaume Jeannin FRA 09:28:56 09:44:40 00:51:05 05:01:49 03:31:03 36% +0% -64% (3) (217)
24 24 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:33:05 09:53:53 00:59:07 05:03:58 03:25:01 49% +16% -35% (8) 229
25 39 Matt Shanks USA 09:36:10 09:52:06 01:00:43 05:17:27 03:13:00 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (226)
26 19 Pierre-Yves Facomprez FRA 09:46:18 10:02:30 01:02:55 05:13:25 03:24:57 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (241)
27 28 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:51:56 10:13:02 01:01:05 05:24:43 03:21:09 49% +6% -45% (17) 249
28 43 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:00:43 10:43:37 01:12:04 05:05:57 03:37:42 9% +16% -75% (5) (258)
29 20 Christian Funk GER 10:57:58 11:16:33 01:24:14 05:49:22 03:39:23 38% +0% -62% (4) 265
30 22 German Garrote Borrull ESP 11:05:21 11:32:24 00:57:51 05:36:21 04:26:09 38% +62% -0% (2) (266)
31 34 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:40:06 12:16:25 01:12:22 05:52:40 04:30:04 32% +23% -45% (32) 267
5 Timothy Van Houtem BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Albert Moreno ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
18 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
21 Romain Garcin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Felix Haupt GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Jerome Joussemet FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
27 Geert Lauryssen BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Julien Marcq FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Martin Charles FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Jeremy Morel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Seppe Odeyn BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
36 Robin Pasteur FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Kevin Rundstadler FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
42 Sven Van Luyck BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
45 Arnaud Guilloux FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
48 Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 51 Tine Deckers BEL 09:15:26 09:34:55 00:58:07 05:06:30 03:05:49 48% +11% -41% (17) 37
2 52 Leanda Cave GBR 09:16:14 09:21:19 00:51:02 05:10:38 03:09:34 71% +10% -19% (18) 16
3 68 Kristin Moeller GER 09:28:40 09:33:47 01:03:14 05:22:15 02:58:10 79% +19% -2% (16) 36
4 67 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:33:47 09:33:35 01:01:50 05:10:02 03:16:55 51% +0% -49% (16) 34
5 66 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:40:21 09:56:03 01:01:59 05:29:18 03:04:05 23% +77% -0% (5) 75
6 65 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:50:05 09:57:49 00:53:51 05:30:40 03:20:34 49% +0% -51% (9) 81
7 56 Tine Holst DEN 09:50:51 10:02:39 01:04:01 05:19:58 03:21:52 72% +28% -0% (11) 88
8 64 Erin Spitler USA 09:51:17 10:18:46 01:06:12 05:18:09 03:21:56 21% +41% -38% (6) 117
9 57 Tineke Van den Berg NED 09:51:25 10:08:47 01:05:22 05:17:16 03:23:48 45% +20% -36% (4) 101
10 58 Kate Comber GBR 09:55:34 10:12:02 00:55:18 05:32:18 03:22:59 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (106)
11 60 Corina Hengartner SUI 09:56:42 10:21:23 01:02:08 05:25:49 03:23:46 32% +38% -30% (3) (126)
12 54 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:57:26 10:02:35 01:00:36 05:26:31 03:25:19 79% +0% -21% (5) 86
13 59 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:59:51 10:11:01 00:59:29 05:33:54 03:21:28 100% +0% -0% (2) (102)
14 62 Stephanie Reymond FRA 10:02:52 10:19:54 01:05:02 05:27:16 03:25:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (123)
15 63 Maggie Rusch USA 10:07:47 10:25:00 01:01:40 05:30:39 03:30:28 43% +27% -30% (4) 141
16 55 Nicole Woysch GER 10:19:42 10:54:32 00:58:52 05:32:56 03:42:53 22% +3% -75% (21) (163)
61 Michaela Renner-Schneck GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
69 Emma Bilham SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
70 Petra Krejcova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Frederik Van Lierde has had great results in France and has won the race three times. He’s the clear favorite based on the numbers, but his season so far hasn’t been going well: He finished 70.3 Puerto Rico in 10th place and crashed at Challenge Fuerteventura, breaking his collar-bone. He’s recovered enough to start in France but it’s unclear how good his form will be. He’s followed by a number of athletes looking for Kona points: Stefan Schmid (3.280, but also on the list for IM Brasil), James Cunnama (3.225) and Michael Raelert (3.220) are close to the projected cutoff and should be fine with Top6 finish. Victor Del Corral has been injured and had to withdraw from racing Kona and his recent 70.3 results have not yet shown the fantastic runner that he was in 2013.

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 53% (1-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 17% (5-1)
  • James Cunnama: 13% (7-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 9% (10-1)
  • Michael Raelert: 3% (30-1)

Female Race Participants

Tine Deckers is going for her fifth win in France, she’s had some great results at the start of the year by winning 70.3s in Puerto Rico and Pays d’Aix. She faces strong competition by Leanda Cave who wants to erase the memory of her DQ when she didn’t have her bib number during the bike ride. As Kristin Möller is racing IM Brasil she is unlikely to start in Nice, Gurutze Frades is on the Brasil list as well. If both won’t start, then the likeliest candidate for the third podium spot is Natascha Badmann who’d love to race Kona as a 49-year old Pro. She would need a second place finish to secure a slot.

  • Leanda Cave: 46% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 31% (2-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 14% (6-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 4% (21-1)
  • Gurutze Frades Larralde: 3% (36-1)

Emma Bilham races her first Ironman race, as part of her prep she won 70.3 Barcelona with a dominating bike split.

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Challenge Venice 2016 (June 5th) – Predictions

ChallengeItalyLogoChallenge Venice is a new race on the calendar.

Prize Money

Challenge Venice has a total prize purse of 38.000 EUR.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Massimo Cigana ITA 08:49:14 08:47:06 00:57:52 04:46:12 03:00:09 100% +0% -0% (6) 60
2 4 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:55:03 09:02:24 00:57:34 04:52:23 03:00:06 52% +47% -1% (18) 98
3 11 Sergio Marques POR 08:55:06 08:55:13 00:55:08 04:58:13 02:56:45 74% +6% -20% (35) 78
4 6 Teemu Lemmettylae FIN 09:00:35 08:59:46 00:58:02 04:53:54 03:03:39 88% +10% -2% (13) (93)
5 3 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:06:04 09:04:25 00:56:27 04:56:24 03:08:13 75% +1% -24% (93) 108
6 5 Steven Osborne GBR 09:12:27 09:27:53 00:55:40 05:14:47 02:57:00 3% +91% -6% (13) 176
  7 Zoltan Petsuk HUN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  8 Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  9 Alex Diaconu ROM n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  10 Francesco Cauz ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  12 Malte Bruns GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 13 Erika Csomor HUN 09:38:28 09:33:38 00:59:02 05:16:33 03:17:53 78% +0% -22% (32) 34
2 2 Martina Dogana ITA 09:46:15 09:45:28 00:58:37 05:23:44 03:18:54 99% +1% -0% (11) 51
3 15 Yvette Grice GBR 10:05:23 10:06:47 00:56:10 05:37:13 03:27:00 62% +26% -12% (23) 94
4 14 Carla Van Rooijen NED 10:12:50 10:19:27 01:13:07 05:28:53 03:25:50 66% +34% -0% (5) 117
5 17 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:36:34 10:44:23 01:03:41 05:45:44 03:42:09 48% +0% -52% (9) 160
6 16 Deborah Van Gossum BEL 11:42:54 11:57:01 00:57:01 06:06:55 04:33:58 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (165)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Massimo Cigana: 53% (1-1)
  • Dirk Wijnalda: 20% (4-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 14% (6-1)
  • Teemu Lemmettylae: 9% (10-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 3% (32-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Martina Dogana: 46% (1-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 43% (1-1)
  • Yvette Grice: 7% (14-1)
  • Carla Van Rooijen: 3% (39-1)
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Ironman Lanzarote 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As has to be expected by the tough course in Lanzarote, the race was quite slow. An adjustment of -23:21 is easily 40 minutes slower than Austria, Roth, Copenhagen or Barcelona, mainly because of the hard bike course (adjustment of -20:07). This year’s edition was maybe two or three minutes slower (again mainly because of the bike) than what is “normal” for IM Lanzarote.

Male Race Results

Jan Frodeno started the race well: He had the fastest swim of the day but then lost roughly two minutes in T1 in order to fix some issue with his helmet. (He also had some issues with the same or very similar helmet in Frankfurt.) While Johann Ackermann was leading the bike, a lot of good runners were within minutes. After T2, Jan was quickly back in the lead, but Jesse Thomas had paced the swim and bike well, had the best run of the day, was able to overtake Jan and continue his perfect IM record by winning IM Lanzarote. Jan validated his Kona slot with a solid second place finish while David McNamee had to fight hard for the third spot on the podium.

Christopher Baird had the best relative race of the day – the best bike split and a 2:47 run was more than an hour quicker than expected and good for fourth. Ivan Rana finished fifth while Timo Bracht couldn’t quite find the run speed to finish better than sixth.

Jesse, Jan and David are now safe for a July Kona slot, while Ivan is “on the bubble”. Timo and the rest of the finishers still need more points.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jesse Thomas USA 00:50:55 04:58:33 02:46:56 08:42:33 -04:26 US$ 5000
2 Jan Frodeno GER 00:46:52 04:58:18 02:50:03 08:44:38 14:35 US$ 2750
3 David McNamee GBR 00:47:03 05:01:39 02:51:51 08:46:36 -03:19 US$ 1750
4 Christopher Baird USA 00:55:11 04:57:27 02:47:54 08:48:35 -1:01:14 US$ 1250
5 Ivan Rana ESP 00:47:04 05:02:34 02:54:35 08:50:09 02:19 US$ 1000
6 Timo Bracht GER 00:50:55 04:58:35 02:56:59 08:52:47 06:56 US$ 750
7 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:50:57 05:07:15 02:54:35 08:58:21 -02:47
8 Roman Deisenhofer GER 00:52:41 04:59:05 03:03:51 09:02:33 -30:52
9 Diego Van Looy BEL 01:04:24 05:05:35 02:52:10 09:11:22 n/a
10 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 00:52:44 05:10:24 03:03:38 09:13:56 02:04
11 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:50:45 05:12:10 03:10:44 09:20:12 -02:18
12 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 00:54:37 05:20:18 02:59:35 09:22:09 02:58
13 Marcel Bischof GER 00:56:47 05:15:36 03:06:54 09:26:56 -09:25
14 Marcus Hultgren SWE 00:58:26 05:14:59 03:08:58 09:29:55 -24:13
15 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:52:46 05:27:18 03:04:23 09:31:39 05:54
16 Esben Hovgaard DEN 00:54:39 05:13:36 03:20:24 09:35:07 25:51
17 Till Schramm GER 00:56:24 05:23:04 03:09:20 09:35:52 -21:41
18 Mikita Hryhoryeu POL 00:52:12 05:25:40 03:08:41 09:35:56 14:22
19 Michael Louys BEL 01:03:10 05:15:49 03:17:48 09:45:12 -14:06
20 Frederic Garcia FRA 00:56:35 05:31:39 03:12:58 09:49:23 n/a
21 Armin Atzlinger AUT 00:57:01 05:39:03 03:06:48 09:53:59 -18:06
22 Eneko Elosegui ESP 00:58:28 05:23:41 03:41:35 10:10:43 15:55
23 Gilian Oriet SUI 00:57:22 05:30:54 03:41:13 10:18:12 03:54
24 Graeme Stewart GBR 00:55:41 05:55:59 03:19:17 10:19:48 56:33
25 Rob Bobbaers BEL 01:00:44 05:29:01 03:47:56 10:26:57 n/a
26 John Manuel Galindo Rooney ESP 00:50:58 06:04:56 03:29:13 10:33:32 34:00
27 Enric Gussinyer ESP 00:52:21 05:52:03 03:41:26 10:35:21 42:32
Johann Ackermann GER 00:47:00 04:59:17 DNF
Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:46:57 05:24:03 DNF
Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 00:46:58 05:29:47 DNF
Craig Twigg GBR 00:52:50 05:34:41 DNF
Jim Thijs BEL 00:54:41 06:06:29 DNF

Female Race Results

For a long time, Lucy Charles was leading the field in her Pro IM debut. She swam with the men’s lead group, her 47:11 is a new swim course record. She maintained the lead on the bike, but defending champion Diana Riesler was closing the gap. But the fastest bike of the day was posted by Tine Holst who also stormed to the lead on the run. Towards the end Alexandra Tondeur was getting closer with the best run of the day, but Tine won her first Ironman race in front of Alexandra. Lucy Charles managed to finish third, she overtook Diana Riesler who was cramping towards the end and finished fourth. Caroline Livesey finished fifth. Alyssa Godesky has recovered from her crash in Wanaka to finish the day with a good 3:21 marathon and sixth place.

With Lanzarote only Tine managed to score enough points to be safe for a Kona slot. Alexandra Tondeur is “on the bubble”, while the others will need to race again and score more points.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Tine Holst DEN 01:01:15 05:34:25 03:19:48 10:02:35 -23:37 US$ 5000
2 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 01:03:00 05:42:36 03:10:26 10:04:53 -03:29 US$ 2750
3 Lucy Charles GBR 00:47:11 05:48:36 03:27:40 10:10:13 n/a US$ 1750
4 Diana Riesler GER 00:56:51 05:40:19 03:40:02 10:24:52 31:24 US$ 1250
5 Caroline Livesey GBR 00:58:53 05:45:22 03:34:03 10:28:32 06:51 US$ 1000
6 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:00:22 06:01:51 03:21:52 10:32:40 -12:06 US$ 750
7 Anne Jensen DEN 01:03:28 05:52:17 03:40:25 10:44:16 -08:07
Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 00:54:48 05:49:31 DNF
Nicole Woysch GER 01:03:30 06:36:28 DNF
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