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Lanzarote May 26Seedings
Brasil May 27Seedings
Philippines June 3Seedings
Cairns June 10Entry List
Boulder June 10Entry List
France June 24Entry List

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Ironman Philippines 2018 (June 3rd) – Seedings

IMPHI_LogoThis is the first race on this course.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Philippines is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$, paying 6 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 2% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 12 Mike Phillips NZL 08:22:03 08:27:21 00:49:33 04:33:06 05:27:38 02:54:25 66% +34% -0% (3) 33
2 1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:24:38 08:23:48 00:51:02 04:40:57 05:37:00 02:47:38 70% +7% -23% (36) 24
3 15 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:34:15 08:37:09 00:51:05 04:43:41 05:39:46 02:54:29 64% +14% -22% (14) 70
4 8 Daniil Sapunov * UKR 08:42:14 08:48:22 00:48:35 04:49:30 05:43:05 02:59:09 68% +7% -25% (10) 108
5 3 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:45:43 08:52:45 00:50:21 04:47:14 05:42:35 03:03:08 55% +26% -19% (22) 125
6 4 Guy Crawford NZL 08:58:02 09:10:21 00:50:05 04:39:15 05:34:19 03:23:43 43% +25% -32% (16) 184
7 2 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:59:44 09:03:42 00:53:09 04:48:58 05:47:07 03:12:37 58% +0% -42% (21) 163
8 14 Freddy Lampret ZAF 09:32:39 09:58:05 00:54:20 05:01:10 06:00:31 03:32:08 21% +9% -71% (13) 279
9 5 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:34:22 09:41:30 01:00:39 04:59:32 06:05:11 03:29:11 71% +7% -22% (20) 264
10 7 Arland Macasieb PHI 10:25:17 10:48:23 01:05:42 05:28:44 06:39:26 03:45:51 23% +0% -77% (12) (300)
11 6 Aleksander Kochetkov * LTU 10:55:28 11:11:58 01:09:07 05:43:54 06:58:01 03:57:27 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (302)
12 11 Daniel Brown AUS 11:00:25 11:16:56 01:05:18 05:47:53 06:58:10 04:02:15 45% +0% -55% (4) 302
13 13 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:17:25 11:56:30 01:13:25 05:37:40 06:56:05 04:21:20 32% +24% -44% (45) 305

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 9% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 37 Liz Blatchford * AUS 09:16:02 09:15:41 00:51:47 05:12:20 06:09:07 03:06:55 93% +7% -0% (9) (8)
2 33 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:40:24 09:45:12 00:59:50 05:15:07 06:19:58 03:20:26 65% +8% -27% (15) 53
3 32 Laurel Wassner USA 09:42:19 09:50:28 00:54:44 05:22:10 06:21:54 03:20:25 64% +9% -28% (13) 71
4 38 Camilla Lindholm Borg * SWE 09:42:26 09:48:08 01:06:51 05:13:54 06:25:45 03:16:41 74% +10% -16% (19) 60
5 34 Saleta Castro Nogueira * ESP 09:48:17 09:49:07 00:55:43 05:29:33 06:30:16 03:18:01 78% +15% -6% (16) 67
6 31 Alise Selsmark * AUS 09:56:26 10:11:27 00:53:57 05:31:28 06:30:24 03:26:02 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (105)
7 30 Simone Maier GER 09:58:02 10:01:39 01:06:15 05:19:41 06:30:56 03:27:06 75% +3% -22% (9) (85)
8 36 Julia Grant NZL 10:04:41 10:14:46 01:00:01 05:32:10 06:37:11 03:27:30 52% +31% -17% (9) 110
9 39 Shiao-yu Li TWN 10:05:34 10:11:47 01:05:45 05:28:26 06:39:10 03:26:24 55% +8% -36% (17) 106
10 28 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:12:32 10:18:17 00:56:32 05:28:19 06:29:52 03:42:40 29% +3% -68% (31) 114
11 29 Erin Furness NZL 10:22:14 10:30:33 01:03:13 05:38:16 06:46:29 03:35:45 75% +7% -18% (7) (131)
12 35 Jana Candrova CZE 10:33:55 10:45:34 01:07:01 05:39:54 06:51:55 03:42:00 72% +0% -28% (19) 145

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

This race looks like a duel between the New Zealanders Cam Brown and Mile Philipps, but Frederik Croneborg is often racing well in the tough Asian heat and humidity.

  • Cameron Brown: 42% (1-1)
  • Mike Phillips: 39% (2-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 14% (6-1)

Female Race Participants

Based on her previous results, Liz Blatchford has to be considered the clear favorite, even if this would be her first Ironman after giving birth to daughter Mahli.

  • Liz Blatchford: 82% (1-1)
  • Laurel Wassner: 5% (18-1)
  • Dimity-Lee Duke: 5% (21-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm Borg: 4% (22-1)
  • Saleta Castro Nogueira: 3% (36-1)
0

Ironman Brasil 2018 (May 27th) – Seedings

NewImagePrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Olaf Sabatschus (GER) 08:50:37 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 09:31:43
2006 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:15:19 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:20:47
2007 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:21:09 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:12:40
2008 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:28:24 Fernanda Keller (BRA) 09:42:50
2009 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:39 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:10:15
2010 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:07:38 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:19:12
2011 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:12 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:07:49
2012 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:22:40 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:17:42
2013 Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 08:01:32 Amanda Stevens (USA) 09:05:53
2014 Igor Amorelli (BRA) 08:07:54 Sara Gross (CAN) 08:56:35
2015 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:53:44 Ariane Monticeli (BRA) 08:59:08
2016 Brent McMahon (CAN) 07:46:10 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 08:54:10
2017 Tim Don (GBR) 07:40:23 Susie Cheetham (GBR) 08:52:00

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Tim Don GBR 00:44:16 04:06:56 02:44:46 07:40:23
2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:47:12 04:28:48 02:45:18 08:05:43
3 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:44:23 04:27:20 02:51:00 08:06:58

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:50:42 04:53:02 03:02:41 08:52:00
2 Sonja Tajsich GER 00:55:42 04:53:48 03:02:41 08:57:36
3 Haley Chura USA 00:48:09 04:55:18 03:09:30 08:58:45

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:40:23 Tim Don 2017-05-28
Swim overall 00:42:26 Luke McKenzie 2010-05-30
Bike overall 04:06:56 Tim Don 2017-05-28
Run overall 02:42:52 Brent McMahon 2016-05-29
Total female 08:52:00 Susie Cheetham 2017-05-28
Swim female 00:45:48 Dede Griesbauer 2010-05-30
Bike female 04:46:38 Jessie Donavan 2014-05-25
Run female 02:56:28 Ariane Monticeli 2015-05-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 22:03.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 26:07 02:15 07:01 04:41 37 26:07 02:15 07:01 04:41
2007 19:38 00:14 07:38 03:25 40 22:52 01:15 07:19 04:03
2008 13:11 -06:09 14:07 -00:36 45 19:38 -01:13 09:35 02:30
2009 22:14 00:15 11:28 04:42 39 20:17 -00:51 10:03 03:03
2010 26:28 04:18 09:25 00:26 42 21:32 00:11 09:56 02:32
2011 25:42 n/a n/a n/a 29 22:13 00:11 09:56 02:32
2012 20:18 02:37 22:28 -05:16 32 21:57 00:35 12:01 01:14
2013 18:33 02:57 17:03 03:13 41 of 45 21:31 00:55 12:44 01:31
2014 26:59 00:48 22:40 04:39 34 of 40 22:08 00:54 13:59 01:54
2015 21:31 00:23 19:50 05:47 33 of 47 22:04 00:51 14:38 02:20
2016 18:17 -00:21 18:20 03:49 27 of 39 21:43 00:44 15:00 02:29
2017 25:40 04:11 16:19 08:19 35 of 47 22:03 01:03 15:07 03:01

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 7% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 3 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:07:48 08:32:35 00:46:16 04:20:31 05:11:46 02:56:02 55% +11% -34% (17) 59
2 18 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:09:57 09:18:05 00:46:32 04:27:09 05:18:41 02:51:16 1% +28% -72% (13) (206)
3 7 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 08:15:12 09:01:02 00:46:18 04:24:26 05:15:44 02:59:28 2% +44% -54% (8) 153
4 6 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:16:17 08:39:00 00:49:11 04:25:47 05:19:57 02:56:20 66% +18% -16% (13) (77)
5 4 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:16:49 08:45:36 00:47:25 04:31:33 05:23:58 02:52:51 47% +47% -6% (14) 92
6 8 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA 08:17:44 08:45:27 00:47:43 04:29:57 05:22:40 02:55:04 100% +0% -0% (3) 90
7 28 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:21:28 08:47:47 00:50:27 04:26:55 05:22:21 02:59:07 56% +0% -44% (8) 103
8 16 Anton Blokhin BLR 08:23:56 08:52:35 00:49:12 04:30:02 05:24:14 02:59:42 63% +18% -19% (24) 123
9 5 Frank Silvestrin BRA 08:26:33 08:56:44 00:48:35 04:34:52 05:28:27 02:58:06 70% +27% -3% (9) 138
10 13 Felipe Santos BRA 08:30:12 09:06:12 00:46:39 04:37:59 05:29:38 03:00:34 38% +62% -0% (2) (168)
11 19 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:30:35 09:01:03 00:50:14 04:24:58 05:20:12 03:10:23 48% +16% -36% (17) 154
12 11 Urs Mueller SUI 08:45:59 09:16:04 00:51:45 04:31:51 05:28:36 03:17:23 51% +22% -27% (7) 200
13 14 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 08:52:05 09:25:52 00:53:05 04:43:21 05:41:26 03:10:39 39% +5% -56% (9) 229
14 10 Inaki De La Parra POL 08:59:47 09:36:56 00:58:03 04:33:58 05:37:01 03:22:46 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (256)
15 12 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 09:00:39 09:50:57 00:49:52 04:42:47 05:37:39 03:23:00 24% +0% -76% (4) (273)
16 29 Luiz Francisco Paiva Ferreira BRA 09:01:10 09:39:33 00:46:15 04:38:02 05:29:17 03:31:53 100% +0% -0% (2) (261)
17 32 Diego Vasquez ECU 09:13:30 09:51:36 00:53:42 04:47:43 05:46:25 03:27:05 100% +0% -0% (2) (275)
18 30 Roberto Rivera Cabrera CHI 09:39:39 10:21:05 00:55:16 05:07:36 06:07:53 03:31:46 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (291)
19 26 Gaston Duran ARG 09:43:26 10:32:58 00:57:39 05:08:14 06:10:53 03:32:33 4% +0% -96% (2) (296)
20 17 Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 10:28:42 11:11:58 01:07:22 05:24:09 06:36:31 03:52:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (302)
  9 Jesper Svensson SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  15 Bruno Joaquim BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  27 Marcus Vinicius Fernandes BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
  31 Felipe Van de Wyngard CHI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 8% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 21 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:00:09 09:22:01 01:00:59 04:49:04 05:55:03 03:05:06 76% +8% -16% (21) 19
2 22 Haley Chura USA 09:03:54 09:28:38 00:49:33 04:54:33 05:49:06 03:14:48 83% +7% -10% (11) 30
3 23 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:04:08 09:39:22 00:54:23 04:55:53 05:55:15 03:08:53 65% +0% -35% (3) (46)
4 24 Pamela Tastets CHI 09:16:20 09:50:32 00:56:00 04:57:16 05:58:16 03:18:04 100% +0% -0% (3) 71
5 34 Camilla Lindholm Borg SWE 09:17:18

09:48:08

 

01:05:02 04:55:19 06:05:22 03:11:56 74% +10% -16% (19) 60
6 20 Bruna Mahn BRA 09:30:37 10:04:10 00:56:36 05:12:13 06:13:49 03:16:48 44% +56% -0% (4) 90
  25 Nayara Luniere BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  33 Carolina Furriela BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

For the male side, it looks as if the home country can look forward to their first home win since 2014 .. it might even be a repeat win by Igor Amorelli:

  • Igor Amorelli: 31% (2-1)
  • Thiago Vinhal: 19% (4-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 18% (5-1)
  • Reinaldo Colucci: 11% (8-1)
  • Fabio Carvalho: 10% (9-1)
  • Philipp Koutny: 8% (12-1)
  • Anton Blokhin: 2% (56-1)
  • Luis Henrique Ohde: 2% (64-1)

Female Race Participants

The US has a number of female winners at IM Brasil: Dede Griesbauer, Amanda Stevens and Liz Lyles – with this year’s field there are good chances for the next one:

  • Sarah Piampiano: 53% (1-1)
  • Haley Chura: 27% (3-1)
  • Kirsty Jahn: 12% (7-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm Borg: 5% (18-1)
  • Pamela Tastets: 2% (59-1)
0

Ironman Lanzarote 2018 (May 26th) – Seedings

IMLanzaLogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:55:38 Virginia Berasategui (ESP) 10:09:40
2006 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:54:14 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:52:45
2007 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:49:39 Tiina Boman (FIN) 09:58:42
2008 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:59:40 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 10:02:30
2009 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:54:03 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:54:58
2010 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:37:43 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 10:03:53
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:30:34 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 09:28:12
2012 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:44:39 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 09:58:06
2013 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:42:40 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:37:34
2014 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:47:39 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:41:40
2015 Alessandro Degasperi (ITA) 08:56:49 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:56:03
2016 Jesse Thomas (USA) 08:42:33 Tine Holst (DEN) 10:02:35
2017 Bart Aernouts (BEL) 08:34:13 Lucy Charles (GBR) 09:35:39

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:50:34 04:48:23 02:48:28 08:34:13
2 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:50:33 04:59:18 02:47:39 08:43:22
3 Jesse Thomas USA 00:50:34 04:55:54 02:55:25 08:49:02

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Charles GBR 00:47:06 05:23:29 03:18:34 09:35:39
2 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:57:13 05:37:17 03:03:53 09:44:29
3 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:00:40 05:29:44 03:13:05 09:50:22

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:30:34 Timo Bracht 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:15 Luc Van Lierde 2006-05-20
Bike overall 04:40:58 Maik Twelsiek 2010-05-22
Run overall 02:44:29 Gerrit Schellens 2005-06-04
Total female 09:24:39 Paula Newby-Fraser 1995-06-04
Swim female 00:47:06 Lucy Charles 2017-05-20
Bike female 05:23:29 Lucy Charles 2017-05-20
Run female 02:58:37 Kristin Moeller 2013-05-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lanzarote is – 13:54.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -01:19 02:52 -18:58 04:12 45 -01:19 02:52 -18:58 04:12
2007 -08:07 -00:26 -09:52 -03:14 40 -04:43 01:13 -14:25 00:29
2008 -08:54 01:18 -16:06 05:20 47 -06:07 01:14 -14:59 02:06
2009 -04:47 00:27 -12:47 03:55 44 -05:47 01:03 -14:26 02:33
2010 -04:13 01:50 -08:20 01:04 34 -05:28 01:12 -13:13 02:15
2011 -06:16 03:31 -14:26 04:58 23 -05:36 01:35 -13:25 02:42
2012 -15:48 01:29 -14:57 02:11 22 -07:03 01:34 -13:38 02:38
2013 -17:46 00:41 -18:47 01:48 19 of 31 -08:24 01:28 -14:17 02:32
2014 -22:51 01:01 -17:19 -03:33 37 of 56 -10:00 01:25 -14:37 01:51
2015 -30:50 01:41 -29:50 -00:52 29 of 44 -12:05 01:26 -16:08 01:35
2016 -22:08 00:10 -19:15 00:15 34 of 41 -13:00 01:19 -16:25 01:27
2017 -23:51 00:51 -19:11 01:07 34 of 50 -13:54 01:17 -16:39 01:26

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 12% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 3 Ivan Rana ESP 08:37:10 08:25:24 00:46:29 04:58:04 05:49:33 02:47:37 80% +3% -17% (14) 26
2 2 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:37:56 08:27:14 00:49:42 04:56:23 05:51:05 02:46:51 77% +0% -23% (14) 32
3 12 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:42:24 08:38:49 00:49:38 04:54:22 05:49:01 02:53:23 52% +7% -41% (22) 76
4 1 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:42:41 08:30:41 00:49:23 04:39:07 05:33:31 03:09:10 53% +36% -10% (10) 50
5 4 Peru Alfaro ESP 08:46:03 08:39:53 00:46:32 04:58:51 05:50:23 02:55:40 91% +0% -9% (4) 80
6 9 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:47:08 08:35:16 00:48:03 05:03:44 05:56:47 02:50:21 87% +3% -11% (19) 65
7 5 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:47:19 08:37:45 00:47:27 04:48:39 05:41:06 03:06:13 51% +5% -44% (33) 74
8 7 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:47:40 08:36:24 00:49:20 05:01:38 05:55:58 02:51:42 48% +12% -40% (21) 67
9 8 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:49:29 08:36:24 00:52:49 04:59:41 05:57:31 02:51:58 90% +0% -10% (15) 67
10 6 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 08:52:05 08:49:21 00:51:26 05:00:21 05:56:47 02:55:18 64% +36% -0% (11) 111
11 14 Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP 08:56:16 08:55:58 00:54:56 05:04:30 06:04:27 02:51:49 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (135)
12 27 Alexander Schilling GER 08:57:41 08:47:47 00:47:07 05:02:34 05:54:41 03:03:00 100% +0% -0% (3) 103
13 10 Patrick Jaberg SUI 09:01:13 08:55:32 00:52:44 04:59:44 05:57:28 03:03:45 79% +20% -2% (20) 134
14 28 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 09:01:23 08:53:11 00:51:53 05:01:13 05:58:06 03:03:17 65% +2% -34% (11) 128
15 30 Diego Van Looy BEL 09:05:08 08:56:33 01:03:43 05:05:16 06:13:58 02:51:10 100% +0% -0% (4) (138)
16 13 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:11:22 08:57:04 00:50:08 05:14:34 06:09:42 03:01:40 93% +2% -5% (32) 139
17 19 Seppe Odeyn BEL 09:17:16 09:12:46 01:05:58 05:10:47 06:21:45 02:55:31 100% +0% -0% (2) (194)
18 18 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:20:58 09:12:12 00:59:01 05:09:30 06:13:31 03:07:27 87% +7% -6% (71) 191
19 16 Martijn Dekker NED 09:21:13 09:32:11 00:47:26 05:03:58 05:56:25 03:24:48 18% +0% -82% (4) (244)
20 32 Mikolaj Luft POL 09:23:36 09:22:36 00:52:57 05:01:55 05:59:51 03:23:45 41% +0% -59% (4) (220)
21 22 Erik Holmberg SWE 09:32:20 09:31:05 00:52:14 05:07:50 06:05:05 03:27:15 46% +0% -54% (4) 241
22 24 Olivier Esser BEL 09:33:33 09:33:28 00:52:16 05:20:54 06:18:10 03:15:23 60% +0% -40% (3) (249)
23 17 Frederic Limousin FRA 09:36:06 09:27:21 00:52:11 05:15:57 06:13:08 03:22:58 85% +15% -0% (5) 232
24 15 Carlos Aznar Gallego ESP 09:36:52 09:31:29 00:59:51 05:26:49 06:31:39 03:05:13 59% +0% -41% (3) (242)
25 33 Bekim Christensen DEN 09:47:21 09:40:04 01:04:39 05:08:30 06:18:09 03:29:12 47% +0% -53% (4) (261)
26 21 Dirk Baelus BEL 09:49:18 09:37:57 00:56:13 05:23:04 06:24:17 03:25:01 100% +0% -0% (3) 259
11 Brian Fogarty GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Pedro Jose Andujar ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Owen Cummins IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Francisco Fernandez Cortes ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
26 Henry Irvine GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
29 Sanne Swolfs BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Frederik Waer BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 15% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 40 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:30:11 09:14:52 00:56:39 05:18:30 06:20:09 03:10:02 83% +0% -17% (33) 7
2 38 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:33:21 09:18:02 00:58:03 05:21:14 06:24:18 03:09:03 97% +0% -3% (18) 9
3 39 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:33:35 09:18:57 00:51:36 05:22:45 06:19:20 03:14:15 81% +1% -18% (25) 11
4 41 Marta Bernardi ITA 09:45:44 09:45:24 00:55:53 05:36:46 06:37:39 03:08:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (53)
5 53 Katja Konschak GER 09:48:44 09:48:52 00:52:37 05:41:36 06:39:13 03:09:31 34% +30% -36% (21) 64
6 46 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:53:19 09:37:12 00:50:07 05:39:03 06:34:10 03:19:09 80% +0% -20% (11) 41
7 54 Emma-Kate Lidbury GBR 09:54:01 09:48:56 00:52:14 05:28:22 06:25:37 03:28:24 100% +0% -0% (2) (65)
8 45 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:54:48 09:43:51 00:57:41 05:34:48 06:37:28 03:17:20 68% +0% -32% (7) 51
9 44 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:57:02 09:47:22 00:51:37 05:26:41 06:23:18 03:33:44 43% +13% -44% (28) 56
10 49 Nikki Bartlett GBR 09:59:05 09:54:15 00:59:21 05:31:46 06:36:07 03:22:58 69% +0% -31% (4) 73
11 43 Martina Kunz SUI 10:00:22 09:48:28 01:00:55 05:35:13 06:41:08 03:19:14 100% +0% -0% (3) 63
12 42 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 10:01:31 09:49:07 00:54:19 05:44:54 06:44:13 03:17:18 78% +15% -6% (16) 65
13 47 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:09:11 10:08:18 00:58:24 05:38:33 06:41:57 03:27:14 51% +14% -35% (10) 94
14 51 Camille Donat FRA 10:33:35 10:33:13 00:50:20 05:53:43 06:49:03 03:44:32 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (133)
15 48 Jenny Schulz GER 10:36:33 10:36:12 01:04:08 05:44:57 06:54:05 03:42:28 53% +0% -47% (2) (135)
50 Federica De Nicola ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
52 Antonina Reznikov ISR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
55 Carmen Macheriotou CYP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Ivan Rana: 41% (1-1)
  • Alessandro Degasperi: 31% (2-1)
  • Cameron Wurf: 8% (11-1)
  • Miquel Blanchart Tinto: 8% (12-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 6% (17-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 4% (25-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 39% (2-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 31% (2-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 28% (3-1)
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Texas Performances

When discussing the performances from Ironman Texas, most of the discussion is focused on two extremes: On one side, the position by Ironman seems to be “most everything went right, so the results are legit”. On the other hand, a lot of people argue that the results are invalid, creating an empty feeling by the athletes who did well in Texas.

I want to argue for a middle position – to me, the results shouldn’t be accepted as valid records while at the same time I want to point out some of the amazing performances we have seen in Texas.

No Records in Texas

There were a lot of issues with the Texas race this year, among them:

  • The bike courses short (by Ironman’s own admission), although there is some discussion as to the extent. The general consensus seems to be that the course was close to 110 miles (one example is the GPS data in the Slowtwitch post on Texas). This puts it short of the 112 miles of an Ironman-distance bike leg, but is well within the length of some other courses.
  • There were a lot of reports of blatant drafting, both in the Pro fields and among agegroupers.
  • All non-competitors (including the draft marshals) were pulled from the bike course for “safety reasons”.

By analyzing the results and comparing the Texas times to other performances, there are a number of observations that show how unusually quick the Texas times have been:

  • On average, the Pro athletes in Texas posted bike times that are about 12.2% quicker (or more than 30 minutes for a 4:30 bike ride) compared to their times on an average course, the largest number I have observed in analyzing Ironman-distance races since 2005. The closest bike adjustments are just over 9% (Barcelona 2015, Florida 2013). Just for comparison, the largest adjustment for Challenge Roth (often the “poster child” for a short course) is 5.9% (2009 and 2011).
  • If we accept the bike times, this would mean that 9 of the 10 fastest female bike times were set in the 2018 Texas race. The only non-Texas time would be Daniela Ryf’s 4:31 from Roth 2016.
  • If we accept the overall times, this would mean that there were 9 national records set in Texas this year. Last year’s race was already quick but only created to four new records.

To me, all this is a clear indication that the data from IM Texas 2018 is far outside of the normal parameters. As a consequence, I will not use them to rate the athletes that raced in Texas and will also not use them for future predictions.

Of course, the data cannot show the reason why the results are off. One can only speculate – were there favorable weather conditions (apparently yes, but  it’s hard to imagine improving times by more than a few minutes), was the course short (apparently not by much, at least not shorter than other races that did not produce abnormal data), was there drafting (apparently yes, but of course not uniformly – at least we can be sure that Starky didn’t draft any competitor when he rode his 3:55 bike split), was there a draft by camera motor cycle (unlikely as there wasn’t much coverage of the race and all motos were pulled from the course), etc. Even athletes riding legally will still get a good benefit when they are 12 meters behind a large drafting peloton. Speculating about what has caused a fast time is exactly what I don’t want to do. It’s also impossible to decide on an athlete-by-athlete basis to accept or not accept a performance without a lot more data then what is made available. Of course, this also means that the performance of some athletes get rejected even if they were not impacted by the factors above (or not quite as much) .. and of course I also understand the athlete’s frustration about this.

Still, the Texas times should not be accepted as records. To me, records are like a rubber band – you can stretch it a bit, but when you put too much weight on it, it will break. Following the fastest times across different races and courses was always fun, even if any list of “fastest times” immediately created a lot of “yeah, buts …”. We are now in a place where “raw records” don’t really make much sense.

For a list of fastest times to start making sense again, a few things have to happen:

  • Certify course lengths.
    This would be an excellent project for the ITU and Ironman to tackle. Define a protocol for how to properly measure (incl. what is called “short course prevention” for road race measurements), set up an organization for measuring courses, pre-measure courses and release these measurements before a race. Then define acceptable parameters for “a full Ironman-distance race”, such as will short courses be accepted and some triathlon-specific issues such as currents in the swim.
  • Define minimum officiating standards.
    A lot of the standards are already in place, but often not fully enforced. I can’t see how you can have a record when there are no draft marshals.
  • Give the women a better chance not to be impacted by the agegroup race.
    A ten-minute gap between the Pro women and the fast agegroupers is not sufficient, especially if the Pro swim is without a wetsuit and the agegroup race is wetsuit-legal. Mel Hauschildt wrote on her blog: When the AG men overtake the Pro women, “the women’s race gets put on hold, the safety car comes out and brings the field back together until they’re free to race again a couple hours later.”

Defining the rules on when a race circumstances are acceptable as a record would be a great sign of a further maturing sport. In the absence of these rules, any comparisons between different courses purely on finish time is pretty meaningless and I’m struggling with whether it makes sense to put together any record-lists for now.

Great Performances in Texas

Even if I have argued above that the Texas times are not acceptable as records, there were still a number of great performances in that race. Based on my analysis of race data I have also built an adjustment model that compares results from different courses or races on the same course but different years. These adjustments (creating a course-independent “normalized time”) is not transparent enough to be used as a basis for a “world records list”, but even if the Texas data is likely outside the limits of the model, it still gives a reasonable indication of how the Texas performances compare to performances on other courses.

Here are a few great performances that should get more attention.

Matt Hanson Runs a 2:34 Marathon

When Matt crossed the finish line in first place with a 2:34:39 marathon, I found it hard to believe that the course was accurate – it was almost eight minutes quicker than last year’s winning marathon and seven minutes quicker than his own course record. In addition, by all accounts Matt was working hard on the bike, first being forced to close a gap of three minutes after the swim until the first turnaround and then pushing the pace in the chase group. With the data from the other competitors and GPS data, it seems clear that the course was the same as in previous years and relatively accurate. In my race database (going back to 2005) I could only find 11 sub-2:40 marathons, with the fastest being a 2:37 by Bart Aernouts from IM France 2013 on a course that was likely to be a bit short. (There is also Peter Reid’s 2:35:21 run split at IM Austria 1999, which was short by at least 1.5k.) When looking at the normalized time of Matt’s run, my analysis lists only two better run performances: Patrick Lange’s Kona runs from 2016 and 2017 that were faster by 38 and 44 seconds. I can’t wait to see what happens in Kona when Matt figures out how to run well in Kona!

Mel Hauschildt Wins Her Third Regional Championship on Different Courses

When Mel is healthy and able to train consistently, she is almost impossible to beat. Since stepping up to Ironman racing in 2014, she has won six Ironman races and is unbeaten in any Ironman she raced outside of Kona (DNF in 2016 and a 14th in 2017 when she didn’t have much time to prepare after two surgeries). As is typical for her, Mel lost some time in the Texas swim, she had to make up three minutes to most of her competitors. It took her about 90k to close that gap and usually she’s riding even better in the second half of the bike. In her blog Mel describes how frustrating it was to her to work hard only to be overtaken by agegroup men being able to slingshot behind her and forcing her to sit up to move to a legal distance .. only to have the process repeated again and again. But then Mel was able to show her strong run, took the lead after the first of three run loops and won with a gap of more than 12 minutes. Texas was the third Regional Championship she raced in, and it was also the third she was able to win. Matt Hanson also has three Regional Championship wins as well, but while Matt’s were all in Texas, Mel’s wins were on three different courses: Melbourne 2015, Frankfurt 2016 and now Texas 2018. This shows that Mel can race well on almost any course. If her prep for Kona goes well, we’ll see her mix up the field in Kona – to me she’s a strong podium contender.

Andy Starykowicz Posts a 3:55 Bike Split

The “headline performance” in Texas that caught the most attention was Andy Starykowicz’s blazing fast 3:54:59 bike split – the first sub-4 bike ride in any Ironman race. He was probably the athlete that had the least benefit from the issues discussed in the section above, after all there is no draft at the front of the race. Andy exited the swim with the front group and quickly rode away from the rest of the field. In T2 he had a lead of more than 14 minutes to the chase group. His bike time was more than eight minutes quicker than Johannes Ackerman’s (who tried to go with him but had to let go after the half-way mark) and more than eleven minutes quicker than anyone else in the field. He was clearly riding a step above everyone else in the field. Regardless of whether you accept his bike split as a world record or not, sponsors should be happy to pay out the bonuses to Andy – it’s not his fault that the race had a few issues, and he delivered what he set out to do. After his amazing bike split, Andy also posted one of his best run splits – he ran a 3:00:57 (his best run split is a 2:58 from Florida 2013) and finished in eighth place, securing his Kona slot. He’ll be one more strong bike rider in the Kona field – and I’m sure that he’ll join forces with Cam Wurf to lower the 2018 Kona race even further than what we’ve seen last October. With their bike strength and the progress on the run both Andy and Cam are working for, they will be making Kona even more exciting.

Lauren Brandon Has the Fastest Swim Overall

In all the coverage of the Texas race, the female swim was only a side note. But Lauren Brandon managed something that is rarely seen: Her 48:19 was the fastest swim split overall! (The fastest male was Sean Donnelly with a 49:06, he DNF’d.) She also put more than five minutes into Meredith Kessler and eight minutes into the rest of the female field. With her swim she set a new course record (improving on her own time from last year) and also swam faster than she and Lucy Charles did in Hawaii last October (also a non-wetsuit swim). Comparing swim times across races is tricky because the conditions can vary quite a lot, but Lauren’s swim is one of the best swim performances we have ever seen by a female Pro. If the conditions are right, I’m sure she and Lucy Charles will attack the swim course record in Kona.

Great Returns From Injury by Will Clarke and Matt Russell

Some of the most satisfying results came from athletes that raced Texas after being seriously injured. Will Clarke was qualified for Kona but had to decline his slot after he crashed on the bike and hurt his shoulder. It has taken him some time to regain decent mobility in the shoulder again and his prep races at 70.3 Dubai and Challenge Roma did not quite go according to plan. But he was in great shape for Texas and a third-best run split allowed him to claim the final step on the podium. He’s now in a good position to qualify for Kona 2018.

Another athlete I was very happy to see race in Texas was Matt Russell. Matt was hit by a car during the race in Kona and almost got killed when he lost a lot of blood. After a few days in the hospital he needed some time to recover but by now he seems to have made a full recovery. He posted the third-best bike split making up the time he lost in the swim to the front group, but he wasn’t yet able to deliver his typical 2:50-ish run split in Texas. A 3:02 run saw him fall back to 14th place. It’ll be tough for him to qualify for Kona, but typically he’s been doing five to seven IMs per year – hopefully he’ll be able to continue to race often and well!

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Ironman Australia 2018 – Analyzing Results

IMAustraliaLogoCourse Conditions

After all the fast results at IM Texas one week ago, IM Australia had results close to what could have been expected from previous years. Conditions were good, but not massively: The swim and bike were a little bit faster than in the past, but then the run was a bit slower. The overall adjustment of 8:50 is in line with the course rating of 7:03.

A few new records were set: Marino Vanhoenacker improved the overall course record (set last year by David Dellow) by a minute. On the female side Bella Luxford was one second quicker than the swim record but then DNF’d, but Kelsey Withrow finished and now co-owns the swim record with Melissa Ashton. Laura Siddall lay the groundwork for her win with a new bike course record, she improved on Carrie Lester’s 2010 time and posted the first sub-5 bike split in Port Macquarie.

Male Race Results

Before the race, Marino Vanhoenacker seemed to be the athlete to beat. But into T2 Mark Bowstead was leading the race posting the fastest swim and bike split, but a 3:07 marathon saw him drop back into third. Even then Marino had to fight for the win: Luke McKenzie was never more than a few minutes behind, but he wasn’t quite able to close the gap and finished second. Marino won his 18th Ironman title and becomes the first athlete to claim wins in all six continents.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:45:57 04:30:55 02:54:12 08:14:37 01:27 US$ 8,000 2000
2 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:46:46 04:33:55 02:53:13 08:18:10 -01:06 US$ 4,000 1600
3 Mark Bowstead NZL 00:45:47 04:29:08 03:07:18 08:26:25 05:15 US$ 3,000 1280
4 Nathan Shearer AUS 00:54:30 04:38:38 02:52:13 08:29:13 -16:42 US$ 2,500 960
5 Paul Ambrose AUS 00:46:42 04:34:17 03:05:00 08:29:37 -11:00 US$ 1,500 720
6 Dougal Allan NZL 00:52:45 04:38:46 02:59:16 08:34:45 14:22 US$ 1,000 540
7 Mitchell Robins AUS 00:46:41 04:54:26 02:57:23 08:42:49 n/a   405
8 Levi Maxwell AUS 00:51:12 04:48:11 03:06:51 08:49:25 04:08   305
9 Jarrod Harvey AUS 00:51:39 04:52:30 03:09:33 08:58:12 n/a   230
10 Bryce McMaster NZL 00:52:40 06:01:01 04:13:21 11:12:37 1:01:47   170
  Casey Munro AUS 00:45:50 04:45:04   DNF      
  David Dellow AUS 00:45:53     DNF      
  Lachlan Kerin AUS 00:46:42     DNF      

Female Race Results

After a slower-than-normal swim, defending champion Laura Siddall had her work cut out: She was seven minutes behind rookie Kelsey Withrow and Annabel Luxford. It tool Laura more 140k catch to Annabel who was shortly after forced to drop out with asthma (worsened by a cold). After that it was clear sailing for Laura: After posting a new bike course record she also had the fastest run of the day, claiming her third Ironman title with a gap of more than 20 minutes to Melanie Burke in second and Kelsey Withrow in third.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Laura Siddall GBR 00:55:48 04:56:12 03:10:21 09:05:58 -05:17 US$ 8,000 2000
2 Melanie Burke NZL 01:00:14 05:10:45 03:14:33 09:29:49 -12:19 US$ 4,000 1600
3 Kelsey Withrow USA 00:48:42 05:27:09 03:23:11 09:44:59 n/a US$ 3,000 1280
4 Els Visser NED 00:55:50 05:11:49 03:44:53 09:56:31 n/a US$ 2,500 960
5 Renee Kiley AUS 00:57:52 05:17:54 03:36:20 09:58:13 n/a US$ 1,500 720
6 Jessica Mitchell AUS 01:00:13 05:25:08 03:27:09 09:58:25 03:37 US$ 1,000 540
7 Kierra Sansome AUS 01:00:54 05:53:10 03:33:12 10:32:40 n/a   405
  Annabel Luxford AUS 00:48:41     DNF      

Kona Qualifying Implications

As a P-2000 race, IM Australia didn’t produce too many changes, here’s a look at the athletes in the running for a slot:

  • Laura Siddall is now safe for a July slot.
  • On the male side, both Luke McKenzie and Marino Vanhoenacker are “in the bubble”. I’m not sure if Marino wants to do another Kona race (last year he declined his slot). 
  • Dougal Allan will need about 800 more points, he’s in my “close” category.
  • Annabel Luxford already had enough points, but she still needs an Ironman finish. I hope she recovers quickly from her asthma, and it’s not too late to register for IM Cairns in June.
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