Kona 2014 Rating Report

September 14, 2014 by · 1 Comment
Filed under: ReaderInfo 

Title Kona 2014 Rating Report Thumb

I’m busy writing my Kona 2014 Rating Report focused on the upcoming “big dance” on Hawaii. The release is planned for Saturday, September 20th, but you can already pre-order to receive it as soon as it is released.

The report will contain tons of information:

  • Ironman Hawaii results, the course and course records
  • Detailed analysis from last year’s race
  • The Kona 2014 start list and my predicted finishing times for the pro athletes
  • Based on the predicted times for each of the legs, I have a look how the race may unfold
  • Odds for the winners and Top 3
  • My views on the contenders and interviews with a lot of Pro starters
  • Previous results of all Kona Pros

A lot of people have asked how they can pay me back in some way for the information I’ve been putting out. In order to enable that, I’m releasing this report through Gumroad. The report is still free (you can just enter “0″ as the amount), but if you want to help with my hosting costs and enable me to provide a better race coverage, you can donate an amount of your choice. Regardless of whether you donate or not, feel free to share with others and enjoy!

Interview with Luke McKenzie on Kona 2014

September 19, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Interview 

Luke McKenzie was one of the big surprises in Kona 2013. Since then, he hasn’t had another really great result: He validated his Kona slot in Melbourne with a 13th place finish after some helmet strap issues, then finished Roth in 10th place. On the personal side, he and his partner Beth Gerdes became parents to their daughter Wynne who will be just over four months old when daddy has to race in Kona. Beth helped me get Luke’s perspective on Kona 2014 for my upcoming Kona Rating Report (pre-order here).

Luke McKenzie

Thorsten: How was your season so far?

Luke: Honestly I had two very disappointing Iron-distance races. I felt really well prepared for both, but neither panned out as I expected. In Roth, I had to make the decision to “shut it down” in the run and saved my legs. I felt as though I recovered really quickly from Roth.
Those are behind me as I head into Kona. I think the proof is there that I’ve been in contention the last three years in Hawaii so it’s definitely a race that suits me and my strengths. I also have the 110% physical and mental focus on Hawaii all year long that I never quite get for other races- which can be both a weakness and an asset.

T: How is your preparation different for Kona? 

L: My preparation for Kona is a bit more consistent each year than my prep is throughout the rest of the year and it’s the one race that I truly get excited to train for each and every day. I base myself in Bend, OR for 6 weeks each summer to really focus in on training and nothing else and I know this sets me up well. I also arrive on the Big Island 3 to 4 weeks ahead of the race, which also seems to be an important key for me.

T: From your perspective, what makes the Kona race or course special?

L: That’s what excites me personally about Kona. I feel like I thrive in the harsh conditions that the island brings and I actually hope for the toughest, windiest, hottest day possible out there. I train my body and my mind to welcome whatever the day brings and the tougher the better.

T: What would be a good result for you this year?

L: A great result for me would be Top 5, but realistically I think that after having the race I did last year, I see the potential that I can win it. I think Hawaii is its own beast and hard to compare to other races when it comes to ratings and results.

T: Who is the most underrated athlete?

L: I’d go with Jan Frodeno and myself of course. On the women’s side, I think Heather Wuertle will do better than her prediction – she seems in form for at least a top 10.

(Photo Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

Interview with Julia Gajer on Kona 2014

September 18, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Interview 

Here is the next Kona interview that will also be part of my upcoming Kona Rating Report (you can already pre-order): This one is with Julia Gajer, another German athlete that might surprise a lot of people with a good Kona result.

Julia Gajer

Thorsten: Can you give some background on how you got started in Triathlons?

Julia: I got late into the sport and did my first triathlon in 2008 (Olympic distance). I grew up being a swimmer but didn’t have the talent to qualify for German or International Championships. During my time at university (I studied Pharmacy) I was really tired of swimming and therefore had about to years of not doing any sports before I started to run by myself just once or twice a week. In 2008 when I started my PhD, I bought a bike and raced my first three triathlons (two olympic, one half), which I all won. From that point on I was infected with the triathlon virus. In 2009/10 I raced Olympic distance races in the Baden-Württemberg Liga, some half distances (IM 70.3 Wiesbaden 2010, 5th place) and Powerman Zofingen 2009 (4th place), while working full time in a lab on my PhD thesis. In 2011 I became part of the Team Erdinger Alkoholfrei Junior team, which helped me quite a lot to develop as an athlete. We got the chance to train with the professional team and pick up a lot of stuff. In 2011 I did my first long distance race in Roth in which I finished 2nd. At the end of 2011 I was able to successfully complete my PhD, turned full-time Pro and became a member of the Team Erdinger Alkoholfrei Professional team.

T: How was your season so far?

J: I’m pretty happy with my season so far as my first goal for this year was to get a Kona slot. Eventhough I didn’t have a dream race (putting together a great bike and run) so far at the long distance events I raced, I really feel that I got stronger in all three disciplines this year. At the half distance race in Kraichgau, you could get a glimpse of what is possible when I perform well during the whole race. Therefore, I’m working quite hard right now to put it all together in Kona.

T: You’ve probably heard a lot of stories about Kona and what makes it special. Have you been able to see the course yourself?

J: I was able to fly over to watch the race and explore the course in 2012. From the first glimpse at the television, it doesn’t look too hard. But if you are on the course yourself it really is tough and honest. A real World Championship course. The heat and the wind make it even more challenging, especially on the run. That’s why I think that you really need to be ready to race Kona. When I flew over in 2012, my plan was to qualify for 2013, but when I watched the race and trained on the course, I felt that my mind and body were not yet ready for the race, that’s why I waited another year.
There are some things that make Kona special: the conditions and the great depth of the field. For me it is really an honor and it gives me a lot of extra motivation to race the best athletes in one race.

T: How do you prepare for Kona and how is that different from a “regular” IM?

J: I prepare at home as I have really good training possibilities here and feel most comfortable sleeping in my own bed. I fly to Kona two weeks before the race to allow enough time to adapt to the time shift and climate.
My coach and I created a special preparation for each of my long distance races. There are some basic sessions that you always do, but apart from that we’ve developed a specific preparation for each race. So I don’t really have a typical preparation that I can compare to my Kona prep.

T: What are your expectations for Kona?

J: If I can put it all together, a Top 10 result is possible, this would be a great result for my first Kona race.

T: Julia, have a great first race in Kona!

(Photo Credit: Privatbrauerei ERDINGER Weißbräu)

Interview with Nils Frommhold on Kona 2014

September 16, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Interview 

Nils Frommhold is one of the athletes that’s not yet a household name, but he might surprise a lot of people in Kona this year. Nils has switched to long-course racing in 2012 and immediately had great success, winning IM Arizona in 8:03. He was injured for almost the complete 2013 season, then easily qualified with a 5th place in Cozumel and a win in South Africa. This summer, he had a great race at Challenge Roth, leading for almost the whole day and eventually finished in second with a time of just over 8 hours. He also had a great 0.3 Championships placing fifth. This year will be his first Kona race, and he was kind enough to answer a few questions about Kona for my upcoming Kona Rating Report. You can already pre-order the report so you’ll be among the first to receive it!

Nils Frommhold

Thorsten: After your injury in 2013, was qualifying for Kona your main goal?

Nils: After Cozumel at the end of 2013, my goals were to get my Kona slot without too many races and also to have a peak performance at Challenge Roth in the summer. Both went better than expected! After my winning performance at IM South Africa, I had enough KPR points. The second place in Roth was my best result so far and a good basis for a great Kona result.

T: What makes Kona special for you?

N: To be honest, I don’t really know at the moment. This year it’s my first Kona and my first visit as well. Of course I’ve heard a lot of stories about the race and a lot of people try to explain what’s special. But to see it in real live is a different story – I’ll wait and see. As for the actual race, there aren’t just two to five main contenders! There are the best 50 long distance triathletes of the year. Everybody should be in your mind and you have to know everybody’s strengths and weaknesses. In the end the champion will be the one who’s best at handling the other contenders and the weather conditions. In addition it’s very important to play your „winning cards“ at the right moment!

T: How do you prepare for Kona?

N: Because this is my first start, I don’t have any Kona experience so far! But I won’t change what has been working well for me. As for the last two years (when I prepare for late season IMs), I’ll go to Clermont, Fla., for a training camp between the 70.3 Worlds and Kona. I know the place and – what’s even more important – the training facilities. It’s like „never change a winning system“ and it makes it easy to get into a training daily routine. After Florida I’ll go to Kona eight days before the „big dance“.

T: This is your first time racing in Kona – what is realistic, what would be a great result for you?

N: For me that’s difficult to answer! I don’t know what to expect and where I fit into that incredible field of athletes. But Kona is the race with which I want to grow. A good Kona result is one of my main goals for the future. To get back to the question, in 2014 I’ll find out my initial situation. Then I can start to chase the better-placed athletes year after year. Hopefully I won’t have so many to chase ☺!

T: Who are your picks for this year?

N: I hope that we’ll have a German winner! I think Sebi Kienle, Jan Frodeno and Andreas Raelert are athletes who have that potential.

T: Who is the most underrated athlete?

N: Christian Kramer! After his incredible Klagenfurt performance he is ready for a good result! But there are a lot of strong athletes. Everyone had to have a good performance to make it to Kona. Maybe Boris Stein or Filip Ospaly will be able to surprise.

T: Please tell us about the companies that allow you to focus on being an athlete.

N: I want say thank you to all of my sponsors that make my way to Kona possible! It’s an honor for me to present the Canyon Speedmax at the big dance and be part of the Canyon family as well. In addition, Lemonsports, Reynolds and Skechers did a great job! It’s incredible to be part of a big team of coach Wolfram Bott, and to have nice sponsors and a lot of friends behind me. Hopefully I am able to give something back with a good Kona result.

T: Nils, thanks again for taking the time to let me know about your Kona approach this year. I hope that a lot more people will know you after the race!

Challenge Weymouth 2014 – Analyzing Results

September 16, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Because of bad weather conditions, the swim in Weymouth was shortened to a 1.2 mile swim, and the run appears to be short by at least 4k. Therefore, I can’t really compare the finishing times to other IM-distance races and I’m not including the results in my rating analysis.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Joe Skipper GBR 00:31:00 04:43:18 02:29:40 07:49:03 n/a
2 Joel Jameson GBR 00:33:05 04:45:17 02:34:38 07:57:37 n/a
3 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:27:26 04:51:09 02:41:57 08:04:37 n/a
4 Darren Jenkins AUS 00:36:58 04:48:16 02:41:31 08:12:03 n/a
5 Craig Twigg GBR 00:30:42 04:50:50 02:52:47 08:20:07 n/a
6 Egoitz Zalakain ESP 00:32:54 04:57:29 02:49:08 08:24:56 n/a
7 Keegan Williams NZL 00:30:19 05:11:40 02:41:01 08:28:07 n/a
8 Thomas Vickery 00:33:52 05:08:36 02:41:40 08:29:44 n/a
9 Zoltan Petsuk 00:29:48 05:02:30 02:53:52 08:30:56 n/a
10 Magnus Magnoy 00:38:54 05:15:08 03:00:54 09:02:15 n/a
Karl Alexander 00:35:04 04:50:29 DNF
Chris Goodfellow GBR 00:54:00 DNF

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Eleanor Haresign GBR 00:33:33 05:21:34 02:55:50 08:54:41 n/a
2 Joanna Carritt GBR 00:37:16 05:20:24 02:56:15 08:59:49 n/a
3 Michi Herlbauer AUT 00:32:09 05:26:10 02:57:45 09:01:14 n/a
4 Gabriella Zelinka HUN 00:36:47 05:26:36 03:04:01 09:13:58 n/a
5 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 00:36:32 05:23:39 03:14:03 09:20:34 n/a
6 Charisa Wernick USA 00:36:25 05:38:37 03:25:20 09:46:40 n/a

Ironman Wales 2014 – Analyzing Results

September 15, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Race Conditions

As usual, Wales was very slow – an adjustment of -20:23 is just as little bit slower than previous races (except for 2012 where the run was shortened). The slow times are mainly the result of the bike course at -28:42 which the slowest of the active Ironman courses.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:51:54 05:03:29 03:04:44 09:07:28 -14:28
2 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:51:58 05:03:23 03:07:21 09:10:16 -10:51
3 Peru Alfaro ESP 00:48:29 05:12:17 03:09:09 09:18:28 n/a
4 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:54:40 05:19:45 03:17:58 09:41:04 18:16
5 Harry Springall GBR 00:58:27 05:15:48 03:29:07 09:52:05 n/a
6 James Brown GBR 01:03:05 05:28:11 03:19:05 09:58:53 -03:33
7 Rinus Holvoet BEL 00:56:25 05:32:27 03:21:25 10:00:28 n/a
8 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:05:53 05:24:13 03:18:54 10:03:09 32:11
9 Steve Clark GBR 01:02:50 05:38:58 03:25:58 10:17:36 03:05
10 Paul Hawkins GBR 00:52:26 05:31:17 04:07:49 10:40:02 34:52
11 Martin Cain GBR 01:07:57 05:58:21 03:52:20 11:13:49 32:42
12 Christian Funk GER 01:29:28 06:21:29 03:42:26 11:49:10 -05:55
  Daniel Niederreiter AUT 00:51:57 05:10:51   DNF  
  Oliver Simon GBR 00:49:49     DNF  

Update: An earlier version of this post missed Peru Alfaro, thanks to Charlie Pennington for pointing it out to me.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Amy Forshaw GBR 01:08:13 06:06:44 03:33:10 10:57:26 -14:47
2 Julia Bohn GER 01:08:52 06:23:06 03:37:38 11:20:54 31:40

Next Page »

Logo SmarterSoftware

  • 2014 Kona Rating Report

    Once the Kona Pro field has been finalized, I will release my next Rating Report focused on the 2014 World Championship and the ideal information to have when following the online coverage. Kona Rating Report You can already pre-order the report!
  • Tip Box

    If you like the information I'm posting on this site, please support my work by leaving a tip:

    I'll use any donations to improve this site or for better coverage of key races. Thank you!

  • IM Predictions & Podcast

    At IM-Predicitions.com you can submit your picks for Ironman-distance races and maybe even win a nice prize!

    To help you make your picks, my friend Luke Dragstra and I have a podcast called IM-Predictions discussing the pro field in upcoming Ironman-distance races.

  • TriNews on EndurancePlanet

    EndurancePlanetTawnee Prazak and I co-host the TriNews episodes on the EndurancePlanet podcast. Endurance Planet is the premiere online destination for triathletes and other endurance athletes who want inspiration and education from podcasts, videos and articles to fuel their endurance passion. Please subscribe to automatically get the latest episodes!
  • Rating Reports

    Here's a list of the Rating Reports I have released so far: You can download these reports by clicking on the titles of the report in the list. If you want to be notified when a new report is released, please subscribe to my mailing list by using the form at the top of the sidebar.
  • Let me know what you think …

    I look forward to your feedback. You can leave a comment or send me an email to thorsten@trirating.com.
  • Recent Posts

  • Archives

    open all | close all
  • Meta