Ironman Western Australia (Dec 7th) – Predictions

November 27, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Busselton

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Mitchell Anderson (AUS) 08:27:35 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:47:27
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:03:55 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:10:00
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:05:58 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:00:54
2008 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:06 Gina Ferguson (NZL) 08:59:24
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:13:59 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:16:52
2010 Courtney Ogden (AUS) 08:14:01 Kate Bevilaqua (AUS) 09:19:44
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:12:39 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:25:38
2012 Jimmy Johnsen (DEN) 08:29:06 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:13:00
2013 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 08:08:16 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 08:59:44

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:47:03 04:29:17 02:48:18 08:08:16
2 Markus Thomschke GER 00:53:17 04:27:16 02:51:23 08:16:01
3 David Dellow AUS 00:48:16 04:32:34 02:54:26 08:19:10

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:57:11 04:58:21 03:00:37 08:59:44
2 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:49 04:47:53 03:16:24 09:08:00
3 Lisa Marangon AUS 00:54:10 04:56:20 03:24:29 09:19:29

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:55 Jason Shortis 2006-12-03
Swim overall 00:44:42 Pete Jacobs 2007-12-01
Bike overall 04:18:07 Mitchell Anderson 2006-12-03
Run overall 02:43:48 Robert Thomas 2007-12-01
Total female 08:59:24 Gina Ferguson 2008-12-07
Swim female 00:48:25 Tereza Macel 2007-12-01
Bike female 04:47:53 Mareen Hufe 2013-12-08
Run female 03:00:37 Elizabeth Lyles 2013-12-08

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 13:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 01:52 -02:59 01:39 -02:20 20 01:52 -02:59 01:39 -02:20
2006 14:45 00:28 14:38 02:50 25 08:19 -01:15 08:09 00:15
2007 24:27 00:42 13:35 04:21 37 13:41 -00:36 09:57 01:37
2008 15:18 -00:10 15:45 -00:09 29 14:05 -00:30 11:24 01:11
2009 12:44 01:13 14:16 -04:43 19 13:49 -00:09 11:59 00:00
2010 09:25 00:07 10:11 02:03 21 13:05 -00:06 11:41 00:20
2011 05:08 -00:24 08:46 02:38 25 11:57 -00:09 11:16 00:40
2012 14:49 -01:25 08:46 02:40 23 12:18 -00:19 10:57 00:55
2013 20:42 00:06 15:03 05:48 16 13:14 -00:16 11:24 01:28

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 50k$.

Male Race Participants

Please note special bib #83: Western Australia will be the 83rd and final Ironman race for Jason Shortis.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 David Dellow AUS 08:19:25 08:29:32 00:47:37 04:29:50 02:56:58 11
2 18 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:21:28 08:49:59 00:45:11 04:24:54 03:06:23 (57)
3 3 Joe Gambles AUS 08:28:01 08:40:23 00:49:09 04:32:50 03:01:01 31
4 8 Christian Kemp AUS 08:29:44 08:53:26 00:47:05 04:32:53 03:04:46 (73)
5 9 Matty White AUS 08:33:14 09:04:24 00:51:36 04:32:08 03:04:30 119
6 7 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:33:54 08:52:24 00:52:31 04:40:42 02:55:41 66
7 2 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:34:21 08:51:06 00:49:04 04:32:11 03:08:06 61
8 5 Matt Burton AUS 08:34:35 08:55:17 00:54:17 04:30:00 03:05:18 (83)
9 20 Todd Israel AUS 08:35:14 09:09:28 00:50:11 04:40:15 02:59:48 141
10 16 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:35:21 08:55:52 00:48:36 04:44:31 02:57:13 87
11 10 Markus Thomschke GER 08:35:50 09:07:01 00:54:03 04:34:31 03:02:16 136
12 83 Jason Shortis AUS 08:37:10 08:57:14 00:54:25 04:39:46 02:58:00 96
13 4 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:37:27 09:03:03 00:50:30 04:37:36 03:04:20 113
14 11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:39:57 09:03:31 00:52:17 04:29:44 03:12:56 (114)
15 19 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:44:05 08:54:33 00:51:40 04:45:19 03:02:05 80
16 29 Joshua Rix AUS 08:44:21 09:07:26 00:49:59 04:34:08 03:15:14 138
17 17 Guy Crawford NZL 08:44:31 09:18:42 00:48:37 04:33:03 03:17:51 186
18 13 Per Bittner GER 08:44:32 08:54:47 00:51:06 04:43:27 03:04:59 82
19 30 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:46:01 09:04:50 00:49:12 04:36:11 03:15:38 121
20 26 Sylvain Rota FRA 08:47:38 09:03:32 00:53:15 04:38:25 03:10:58 115
21 6 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:49:23 09:05:00 00:55:09 04:41:13 03:08:00 123
22 22 Pontus Lindberg SWE 08:50:11 09:10:27 00:54:32 04:45:37 03:05:01 146
23 28 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:59:48 09:11:40 01:02:02 04:45:20 03:07:25 151
24 12 Johan Borg AUS 09:00:08 09:29:43 00:55:36 04:42:26 03:17:06 227
25 15 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:00:23 09:17:20 00:53:44 04:53:45 03:07:54 177
26 23 Gergö Molnar HUN 09:00:40 09:21:19 00:51:25 04:51:25 03:12:50 196
27 25 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 09:01:36 09:10:30 00:53:04 04:50:36 03:12:56 147
28 21 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:10:46 09:36:03 01:05:32 04:56:55 03:03:19 (251)
29 24 Andreas Niedrig GER 09:11:18 09:22:50 00:48:56 04:41:36 03:35:46 202
30 27 Shanon Stallard NZL 09:15:00 09:38:55 00:57:30 05:00:03 03:12:27 263
  14 Daniel Brown AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 43 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:06:24 09:21:18 00:59:01 04:51:08 03:11:15 6
2 42 Liz Blatchford GBR 09:12:48 09:22:41 00:51:29 05:05:32 03:10:48 8
3 41 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:13:39 09:31:57 00:57:28 05:05:02 03:06:09 18
4 48 Anja Beranek GER 09:13:49 09:37:51 00:53:26 04:54:09 03:21:14 (30)
5 46 Diana Riesler GER 09:20:51 09:41:33 00:59:16 04:55:02 03:21:33 35
6 64 Britta Martin NZL 09:21:51 09:38:40 01:00:34 05:03:36 03:12:40 30
7 62 Mareen Hufe GER 09:27:23 09:44:42 01:00:57 04:56:39 03:24:48 46
8 49 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:28:57 09:53:09 00:54:19 04:59:40 03:29:58 58
9 45 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:31:15 09:43:23 01:01:30 05:06:31 03:18:14 39
10 44 Bree Wee USA 09:32:19 09:48:05 00:54:44 05:09:34 03:23:01 51
11 51 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:35:51 10:17:05 00:57:02 05:05:03 03:28:46 104
12 53 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:36:47 09:59:18 00:58:37 05:09:00 03:24:09 76
13 47 Melanie Burke NZL 09:37:34 09:54:17 01:06:45 05:05:04 03:20:45 59
14 66 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:38:18 09:51:54 01:02:33 05:07:09 03:23:37 55
15 60 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:42:57 10:01:11 00:54:04 05:08:02 03:35:51 81
16 59 Beth Gerdes USA 09:48:57 10:05:15 01:04:11 05:27:36 03:12:10 85
17 58 Erin Furness NZL 09:52:11 10:26:17 01:01:21 05:19:56 03:25:55 124
18 68 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:53:08 10:09:52 00:56:46 05:24:44 03:26:38 94
19 56 Michelle Duffield AUS 09:53:15 10:14:07 01:01:05 05:21:22 03:25:48 101
20 55 Katy Duffield AUS 09:54:23 10:21:34 00:59:22 05:23:02 03:27:00 (112)
21 50 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:54:42 10:14:45 01:03:42 05:20:06 03:25:54 103
22 65 Larisa Marsh NZL 09:56:43 10:19:43 01:01:47 05:16:59 03:32:57 (109)
23 61 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:58:15 10:18:14 01:06:06 05:21:17 03:25:52 106
24 57 Tracy Douglas AUS 10:01:07 10:26:43 01:07:58 05:16:47 03:31:22 (126)
25 67 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:04:01 10:23:11 01:01:10 05:20:34 03:37:17 114
26 52 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 10:05:30 10:23:18 00:53:44 05:22:33 03:44:13 (115)
27 63 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:17:55 10:48:41 01:05:04 05:20:55 03:46:57 151
  54 Kym Coogan AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  69 Pip Taylor AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

At the top of the odds there are a lot of the Australians who either missed Kona (such as David Dellow with an injury, Clayton Fettell who took a year off IM racing) or didn’t quite have the race they wanted (Joe Gambles who finished 27th).

  • David Dellow: 34% (2-1)
  • Joe Gambles: 15% (6-1)
  • Clayton Fettell: 12% (7-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 9% (10-1)
  • Markus Thomschke: 8% (11-1)
  • Christian Kemp: 6% (15-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 4% (24-1)
  • Matty White: 2% (40-1)
  • Joshua Rix: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

After having only 8 female finishers last year, this year sees a strong and deep women’s field, headed by Yvonne Van Vlerken (recent winner of IM Florida) and defending champion Liz Lyles. However, there are a lot of other IM winners in the field (Liz Blatchford, Anja Beranek, Diana Riesler, Britta Martin, Asa Lundstroem, Bree Wee, Kate Bevilacqua, Dede Griebauer), so we can expect an interesting race not only for first place but also for the money slots.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 39% (2-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 28% (3-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 12% (7-1)
  • Liz Blatchford: 9% (10-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 6% (17-1)
  • Britta Martin: 4% (22-1)

Registration, Withdrawals and Start Lists

November 26, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Analysis 

Last year I wrote a post on procedures around Pro registration for Ironman races. In it, I have made a few suggestions for improvements and wanted to check on the progress.

Suggestions from Last Year

Here is a quick overview of the changes I suggested:

  1. Information on how many athletes have already registered for a race
  2. Standard registration deadline of four weeks
  3. Easily available start lists after end of registration
  4. Stricter withdrawal process

Let’s have a closer look at what happened with each of these suggestions.

Registration Levels

I am not aware of any information that is made available to Pro athletes (or the triathlon press) that indicates how many athletes have registered for a race. If this information had been available, it might have helped to prevent the really small Pro fields (most notably IM Wales which only had two Pro women). From what I heard, some more athletes were interesting to start in Wales after the start list was published, but were declined as the registration deadline had already passed.

As I have suggested last year, I don’t think that putting out the information has to be complicated: A monthly email newsletter by Pro Services to the athletes could just note the current number of athletes registered for the races in the next months, and athletes could adjust their plans accordingly.

Registration Deadline

For most races, a registration deadline of three weeks was used (and in some cases, strictly enforced). I think that almost all Pro athletes are aware that they have to plan their races in time. Except for a few licensed races, I don’t really see this as an issue an more – a three week deadline seems to be standard and accepted.

Start Lists

Ironman has made big steps forward in making start lists available: They have a standard location on their website for Pro start lists (Results – Pro Athletes, then Event Registration – Pro Start Lists). A big thumbs up!

However, there are still some improvements that should be made for the 2015 season:

  • While it’s been working well for North American and Asia/Pacific races, it was hard to get timely and up-to-date information for European races.
  • The start list should be available within days after the registration deadline, but there were a lot of cases when it takes much longer.

Withdrawals

This is the area where more progress should to be made. Quite often, athletes that have announced on social media that they won’t be starting are still on the start list – apparently because Pro Registration has not been notified. It seems to me that the sanctions that Ironman has in place (basically starting at losing 500 KPR points) are not sufficient to ensure that all athletes that won’t start properly notify Pro Registration services.

Also, the information about withdrawals should be reflected in the published start lists. At this point, it is not apparent when start lists are updated and where the updates have occurred. I think two simple changes could help here:

  • On Ironman.com, note the date that the list was last changed in addition to the race name (so instead of „Ironman Lake Placid“ it should be „Ironman Lake Placid (updated June 10th)“)
  • In the list, cross out athletes that won’t start, and note late additions in a special way (e.g. color or by adding „LA“ at their bib).

Overall

I think that Ironman Pro Registration has put a lot of work into improving the information that is available. In addition, I’m thankful that Paula and Heather are alway very helpful and quick in answering my requests. (From what I heard, they are also great in answering questions from Pros and the triathlon press.) However, I think there is still room for improvement in the information that is publicly available, and I hope that this will also make their job a bit easier by reducing the number of requests they have to handle.

Ironman Cozumel 2014 (Nov 30th) – Predictions

November 21, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Update Nov 27th: The start list on Ironman.com has been updated:

  • Withdrawals by Thomas Gerlach, Chad Holderbaum, Christoper Sweet, Jim Lubinski, Diana Riesler & Karen Thibodeau
  • Late Additions by Marcel Bischof, Rene Vallant & Amy Javens

Previous Winners

Cozumel

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:18:40 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:06:58
2010 Andy Potts (USA) 08:15:57 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:07:08
2011 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:23:52 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:14:08
2012 Ivan Rana (ESP) 08:15:07 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:15:38
2013 Michael Weiss (AUT) 07:55:23 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:52:28

Last Year’s TOP 3

Last year’s swim was shortened, so the times were really quick and do not count for the course records.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michael Weiss AUT 00:36:54 04:22:20 02:51:34 07:55:23
2 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:34:12 04:35:14 02:49:48 08:02:42
3 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:34:19 04:34:40 02:52:38 08:05:21

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:36:59 05:03:41 03:07:10 08:52:28
2 Jessie Donavan USA 00:44:46 05:00:35 03:12:02 09:01:12
3 Amanda Stevens USA 00:34:17 05:06:18 03:21:47 09:06:40

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:07 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Swim overall 00:41:48 John Kenny 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:44:05 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Total female 09:06:58 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2009-11-29
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 03:02:39 Beth Gerdes 2012-11-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 10:19.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 09:05 06:53 01:58 -00:35 27 09:05 06:53 01:58 -00:35
2010 07:19 00:54 13:25 -04:58 30 08:12 03:53 07:42 -02:47
2011 15:07 01:40 12:41 02:14 40 10:30 03:09 09:21 -01:06
2012 09:45 -04:05 07:10 -00:08 55 10:19 01:20 08:48 -00:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 5 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:22:00 08:31:11 00:47:07 04:34:38 02:55:15 15
2 1 Michael Weiss AUT 08:27:38 08:34:30 00:53:33 04:27:55 03:01:10 19
3 9 Bas Diederen NED 08:28:14 08:37:35 00:46:53 04:37:38 02:58:42 25
4 3 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:29:06 08:45:24 00:54:03 04:38:22 02:51:41 47
5 2 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:30:10 08:40:35 00:49:22 04:39:27 02:56:21 33
6 8 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:34:45 08:39:43 00:50:02 04:40:42 02:59:01 (30)
7 19 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:38:30 08:57:07 00:46:55 04:40:25 03:06:11 94
8 7 Pedro Gomes POR 08:39:26 08:53:26 00:49:38 04:39:36 03:05:12 73
9 39 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:43:41 09:03:42 00:52:28 04:37:03 03:09:10 116
10 10 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:45:35 09:01:48 00:53:11 04:46:11 03:01:12 111
11 14 Michael Ruenz GER 08:45:44 09:08:02 00:53:03 04:45:41 03:02:01 139
12 16 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:46:13 09:07:15 00:44:42 04:31:17 03:25:15 (138)
13 4 Matthew Russell USA 08:46:18 08:56:25 00:57:58 04:39:54 03:03:26 92
14 13 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:52:04 09:06:22 00:47:42 04:47:40 03:11:42 132
15 24 Andres Castillo Latorre COL 08:52:27 09:16:07 00:46:12 04:42:33 03:18:42 170
16 18 Peru Alfaro ESP 08:52:32 09:13:49 00:46:14 04:47:29 03:13:50 (160)
17 35 Darby Thomas FIN 08:54:23 09:05:29 00:57:23 04:46:45 03:05:16 126
18 33 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:54:49 09:12:57 00:56:03 04:36:15 03:17:31 157
19 11 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:55:35 09:04:58 00:53:43 04:40:35 03:16:17 122
20 20 Sebastian Bleisteiner GER 08:59:38 09:21:12 00:51:43 04:50:42 03:12:13 (195)
21 28 Dan Mcintosh USA 09:02:20 09:27:19 00:51:29 04:50:12 03:15:39 221
22 27 Chad Holderbaum USA 09:03:00 09:16:56 00:54:00 04:48:16 03:15:44 175
23 6 Matt Chrabot USA 09:03:12 09:24:55 00:47:54 04:45:08 03:25:10 (211)
24 41 Gustavo Rodriguez ESP 09:09:36 09:31:34 00:53:50 04:55:14 03:15:31 (230)
25 25 Greg Close USA 09:13:09 09:35:16 00:56:55 04:56:37 03:14:37 (249)
26 37 Allan Villanueva MEX 09:14:26 09:48:39 00:52:19 04:53:30 03:23:38 305
27 40 Jim Lubinski USA 09:16:18 09:44:33 01:01:32 05:01:16 03:08:29 287
(28) 43 Rene Vallant AUT 09:16:27 09:38:18 00:54:00 04:42:44 03:34:43 (260)
(28) 42 Marcel Bischof GER 09:17:18 09:31:51 00:56:19 04:54:52 03:21:07 231
28 22 James Brown GBR 09:28:38 09:40:21 01:01:22 05:01:09 03:21:07 266
29 23 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:33:43 09:59:49 00:49:30 05:08:05 03:31:08 345
30 30 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:49:26 10:16:07 00:50:06 05:05:54 03:48:26 388
31 31 Jason Smith USA 10:39:13 11:04:46 00:56:14 05:20:46 04:17:13 (460)
32 38 Jason Watson USA 10:56:30 11:18:08 00:58:28 05:30:19 04:22:43 (462)
33 29 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:37:56 12:13:44 01:10:40 05:45:49 04:36:27 466
15 Francisco Serrano MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Rodrigo Acevedo COL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Scott Bradley USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Oliver Gonzalez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Christopher Sweet USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Raul Tejada GTM n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 52 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:21:47 09:31:32 00:50:59 05:02:12 03:23:36 17
2 57 Diana Riesler GER 09:23:57 09:41:33 00:57:31 04:57:32 03:23:54 35
3 51 Kelly Williamson USA 09:25:52 09:37:37 00:52:20 05:21:26 03:07:07 29
4 54 Erika Csomor HUN 09:29:48 09:41:26 00:57:47 05:08:27 03:18:33 34
5 56 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:29:50 09:48:11 00:47:29 05:12:22 03:24:59 (52)
6 50 Jessie Donavan USA 09:32:10 09:44:01 01:06:02 05:00:41 03:20:27 42
7 61 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 09:34:25 09:57:22 01:01:27 05:18:26 03:09:31 (67)
8 55 Lucie Reed CZE 09:36:42 09:50:55 00:50:30 05:12:16 03:28:57 53
9 71 Jennie Hansen USA 09:37:05 09:45:55 01:02:58 05:13:52 03:15:15 47
10 58 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:39:33 09:56:12 00:58:53 05:16:46 03:18:54 62
11 75 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:43:44 09:58:47 00:58:54 05:13:25 03:26:26 72
12 62 Brooke Brown CAN 09:49:40 10:25:34 01:04:26 05:16:20 03:23:54 (120)
13 60 Anne Basso FRA 09:54:38 10:27:49 00:56:50 05:18:57 03:33:52 130
14 59 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:55:49 10:14:26 00:55:35 05:24:24 03:30:49 102
15 70 Christine Hammond USA 09:58:02 10:11:39 00:53:58 05:21:20 03:37:44 96
16 73 Tine Holst DEN 10:05:27 10:20:49 01:06:13 05:14:36 03:39:39 111
17 68 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:05:50 10:18:52 00:59:56 05:19:41 03:41:13 108
18 64 Jocelyn Cornman USA 10:08:32 10:32:51 00:59:46 05:33:37 03:30:08 (140)
19 79 Nicole Woysch GER 10:10:07 10:28:07 00:57:41 05:20:28 03:46:58 132
20 66 Christine Fletcher CAN 10:11:33 10:19:50 00:58:26 05:24:58 03:43:08 109
21 78 Kathryn Thomas USA 10:14:36 10:33:49 00:53:39 05:29:39 03:46:18 (141)
22 65 Kelly Fillnow USA 10:14:45 10:28:26 01:05:49 05:30:21 03:33:35 133
(23) 80 Amy Javens USA 10:17:26 10:35:51 01:05:16 05:22:16 03:44:53 (142)
23 72 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:18:12 10:36:32 01:00:16 05:42:06 03:30:50 (142)
24 77 Tami Ritchie USA 10:33:04 10:53:01 00:51:08 05:43:10 03:53:47 153
25 63 Ann Ciaverella USA 10:39:44 11:02:58 01:03:20 05:39:36 03:51:48 161
53 Nicola Spirig SWI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
67 Shannon Florea USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
74 Corrie Kristick USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
76 Ruth Nivon Machoud MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

My top pick Clemente Alonso recently finished second at IM Arizona, so he may be a DNS. If he doesn’t start, there are (at least) four athletes that  could contend for the win without any clear favorite:

  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 31% (2-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 22% (4-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 16% (5-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 14% (6-1)
  • Viktor Zyemtsev: 12% (8-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 2% (40-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 2% (57-1)

Female Race Participants

There are three big contenders on the women’s side: Michelle Vestry, Diana Riesler and Kelly Williamson. All of them have been racing in the fall with different results: Michelle finished 14th in Kona, Diana won at IM Malaysia, and Kelly finished 19th in Kona. It will be a question of who has the best form on race day …

  • Michelle Vesterby: 31% (2-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 29% (2-1) Diana won’t be racing in Cozumel, she is on the start list for Western Australia
  • Kelly Williamson: 17% (5-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 7% (13-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 6% (17-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 5% (18-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 2% (55-1)

An interesting addition to the field is Olympic Champion Nicola Spirig who will do her first IM in Cozumel.

Ironman Arizona 2014 – Analyzing Results

November 17, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Race Conditions

During the race, there were a lot of mentions of windy conditions. Looking at the numbers, this year’s race was the slowest in Arizona since they moved to the fall time slot in 2008. With an adjustment of 16:31, it was still a very quick race, and it seems that the conditions didn’t affect the front of the race too much.

Male Race Results

Brent McMahon already had a number of great 70.3 results, but this weekend he moved up in distance and was able to deliver a stunning Ironman debut race. He was the third athlete ever with a sub-8 debut (the others are Filip Osapaly and Sebastian Kienle) and the fastest IM debut ever. He won the race in a new course record of 7:55, including a 2:43 marathon. Jordan Rapp rode a new bike course record and followed it up with a 2:54 marathon. His 8:03 finish was his fastest time in Arizona – but even that was only good enough for third: Clemente Alonso ran a 2:47 and took second place. Maik Twelsiek was also close to the front for most of the day and held on for a fourth place followed by Tim O’Donnell in fifth.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:25 04:21:24 02:43:29 07:55:48 n/a
2 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:48:05 04:20:44 02:47:30 08:00:42 -19:05
3 Jordan Rapp USA 00:51:13 04:14:03 02:54:08 08:03:14 -13:50
4 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:51:05 04:15:25 02:57:16 08:07:59 -18:22
5 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:48:07 04:26:03 02:53:01 08:11:00 -22:17
6 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:51:00 04:30:38 02:52:42 08:18:16 -08:27
7 Marc Duelsen GER 00:55:10 04:24:48 02:55:01 08:18:39 -28:55
8 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:53:10 04:25:17 02:57:52 08:20:28 -40:09
9 David Kahn USA 00:47:18 04:30:22 03:00:34 08:22:06 n/a
10 Paul Matthews AUS 00:48:08 04:37:08 03:01:08 08:29:52 19:43
11 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 00:57:01 04:36:29 02:55:54 08:33:43 -19:14
12 Edo Van der Meer NED 00:48:09 04:35:32 03:10:19 08:37:52 -45:03
13 Christophe Bastie FRA 00:55:21 04:25:59 03:12:55 08:38:25 -05:08
14 Joe Umphenour USA 00:48:03 04:41:27 03:12:03 08:46:24 -00:14
15 Stephan Vuckovic GER 00:51:02 04:42:29 03:17:21 08:54:48 23:07
16 Ryan Rau USA 01:01:05 04:49:09 03:04:33 08:59:08 -14:52
17 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:55:26 04:59:26 03:05:35 09:04:08 -23:01
18 Jared Milam USA 00:55:23 04:54:08 03:09:46 09:04:22 -06:02
19 Patrick Bless GER 00:59:09 05:01:59 03:14:37 09:21:22 20:41
20 Patrick Wheeler USA 00:55:14 05:13:27 03:08:40 09:22:36 10:00
21 Michael Ruenz GER 00:59:23 04:44:45 03:37:08 09:26:23 45:42
22 Oliver Simon GBR 00:49:53 04:43:29 03:50:49 09:28:21 06:16
23 Dantley Young USA 01:07:02 05:05:43 03:16:37 09:36:58 -24:11
24 Botond Racz HUN 01:01:17 05:07:52 03:28:21 09:44:15 n/a
25 Patrick Schuster USA 01:04:27 04:53:18 03:43:28 09:45:46 26:39
26 Steven Zawaski USA 00:55:02 04:43:58 04:05:39 09:49:26 42:58
27 Richard Wygand BRA 01:06:49 05:03:06 03:35:06 09:51:05 -37:50
28 Vincent Depuiset FRA 01:14:32 05:04:43 03:33:09 09:57:36 -02:09
29 Horst Reichel GER 00:49:56 04:38:32 05:02:23 10:37:41 1:01:19
30 Eric Reid USA 01:01:22 04:59:02 04:48:59 10:54:01 n/a
31 Randy Arriola USA 01:11:59 05:50:00 04:16:52 11:24:26 n/a
32 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:16:15 05:59:50 05:18:30 12:42:18 54:12
Markus Fachbach GER 00:51:08 04:22:41 DNF
Matthew Russell USA 01:02:38 04:20:57 DNF
Derek Garcia USA 00:55:15 04:29:43 DNF
Chad Holderbaum USA 00:55:12 04:44:40 DNF
Anthony Toth CAN 00:59:12 04:54:39 DNF
Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:53:08 DNF
Pedro Gomes POR 00:54:18 DNF
Jim Lamastra USA 00:55:12 DNF
Thomas Gerlach USA 00:55:25 DNF
Scott Defilippis USA 00:55:28 DNF
Devon Palmer USA 00:55:32 DNF
Lewis Elliot USA 00:55:39 DNF
Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR 01:05:39 DNF

Female Race Results

Once the swim was underway, there was never a doubt that Meredith Kessler would be the winner. Leading after the swim, she posted the second fastest bike and run times to win in 8:50. Lisa Huetthaler was second, while Heather Jackson finished third in her Ironman Pro debut.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:22 04:48:06 03:07:56 08:50:41 -27:18
2 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 00:59:05 04:50:17 03:05:48 08:58:46 -31:11
3 Heather Jackson USA 00:58:57 04:47:07 03:18:51 09:08:57 n/a
4 Katy Blakemore USA 00:53:43 05:01:13 03:12:35 09:11:32 -29:03
5 Amanda Stevens USA 00:52:00 04:57:55 03:20:26 09:15:32 -09:28
6 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:59:24 05:02:05 03:16:09 09:22:42 -23:37
7 Uli Bromme USA 01:04:18 04:58:27 03:16:23 09:23:37 -18:45
8 Laura Siddall GBR 00:59:49 05:07:53 03:19:56 09:32:49 n/a
9 Christina Jackson USA 00:53:26 05:01:26 03:36:34 09:35:32 -42:27
10 Carrie Lester AUS 00:53:30 05:24:59 03:17:16 09:40:19 15:45
11 Kathleen Calkins USA 00:59:02 05:08:48 03:38:47 09:50:51 14:51
12 Sarah Graves USA 01:13:24 05:16:48 03:20:34 09:55:54 -05:51
13 Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:59:52 05:22:55 03:30:42 09:57:40 -02:51
14 Sarah Jarvis USA 01:00:30 05:13:25 03:47:46 10:06:00 n/a
15 Olesya Prystayko UKR 01:04:02 05:24:27 03:38:21 10:11:09 05:21
16 Maggie Rusch USA 01:04:13 05:27:48 03:43:28 10:20:02 n/a
17 Jenni Plane USA 01:03:48 06:41:45 04:26:05 12:20:15 -21:44
Malaika Homo USA 00:55:53 05:15:02 DNF
Danielle Kehoe USA 01:00:37 05:26:43 DNF
Jacqui Gordon USA 01:00:47 05:28:33 DNF
Jessica Smith USA 00:56:49 05:47:44 DNF
Angela Kuehnlein GER 01:07:30 DNF

Updated Thoughts on Validation (after 2015 KPR Update)

November 13, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Analysis 

One of the changes in the 2015 KPR rules address the issue of validation. (You can ready more about the 2015 KPR and receive updates about the qualifying situation by subscribing to the 2015 KPR Observer.) In one of my earlier posts, I have written about my thoughts on validation.

Before going into a detailed discussion of validation let me state that I’m not judging the athlete’s choices nor do I want to imply that some choices are likely in the future. I merely use what has happened in the past or what might happen in the future in order to give examples for specific situations. 

Increased Requirements for Returning Champions

In short validation defines a minimum requirement of finishing at least one Ironman race outside of Kona in order to be eligible for a Kona slot. Most often, the term „validation” used as a requirement for past champions to get a non-points slot: They get an automatic entry (called „five year exemption“ in the KPR rules) for five years after winner Kona. In the 2014 season, there have been two incidents when deciding champions decided to race an Ironman without going for the win:

  • Mirinda Carfre validated at IM Florida (three weeks after Kona) by finishing 23rd in 9:48, including a 3:34 run.
  • After missing IM Texas because of an injury, Pete Jacobs validated at IM Switzerland (a week after Challenge Roth) by finishing 15th in 11:42, including a 5:37 bike and a 4:56 marathon. (Pete wrote about his reasons in an open letter to Ironman CEO.)

Ironman CEO Andrew Messick expressed his frustration in the way that some champions have fulfilled their validation in an interview with Slowtwitch:

Last weekend one of our former world champions validated for Kona ..  that athlete went 11:42 with a 51 minute swim, 5 hour and 37 minute bike and a 4:56 run. [Messick was referencing 2012 Ironman World Champion Pete Jacobs of Australia who was validating his 2014 Kona entry at Ironman Switzerland in Zurich] There was never any doubt that this was simply punching a ticket.

Not surprisingly, the requirements for validation have been increased in the 2015 KPR rules:

Former Pro Athlete Ironman® World Champions .. will be required to validate their entry by racing competitively (as determined by IRONMAN in IRONMAN’s sole discretion) and finishing at least one (1) Ironman®-Branded Kona-Qualifying Race (excluding the 2014 Ironman World Championship) during the 2015 Qualifying Year.

Discussion

The requirements in the KPR rules are not very specific – so I had a look into the Merriam-Webster dictionary for a definition of „competitive“:

  • having a strong desire to win or be the best at something
  • trying to win a contest or be more successful than others

Going by this definition, validation would require that a returning champion races in order to win (or at minimum to place well). Obviously this is what Ironman would like to see, but clearly not what Rinnie and Pete did. Even if Pete did the best he could do at his specific situation in Switzerland, I can’t see this fit the above definition of „competitive“.

I think the language is only helpful in showing „undesired“ behavior – “not racing competitively“ which should be easy to determine. However, it it not helpful in giving an athlete of what is required of him or her to validate. In the example of Pete who did not have a choice other than to race a week after Roth, what would he have had to do in order to be considered „racing competitively“? And would Rinnie’s performance in Florida have been judged to be competitive? Where is the cutoff? One could try to come up with better criteria than what we have now – maybe be within x% of the winners time, or score at least k number of KPR points. However, Ironman doesn’t seem to plan to give a clearer guidance on what they determine to be competitive.

What about the Points Slots?

There is another issue that has to be discussed: The requirement of „racing competitively“ only applies to returning champions. This leads to two questions: If a returning champion’s performance has not been deemed „competitive“ (and therefore not eligible for an automatic qualifier), is it then still possible to be considered for a points slot? (I can’t see anything in the KPR rules that would prohibit it.) This could theoretically happen if Sebastian Kienle comes into a situation similar to Pete: His 8000 points from winning Kona will be enough to be above the points cutoff. If he „finishes without racing competitively“, he might be denied an automatic qualifier as a returning champion, but nothing would keep him from claiming a points slot. I’m not sure if this makes sense.

In addition, this is effectively putting a higher requirement on returning champions (say Leanda Cave who finished 18th and is currently ranked with not enough points for a slot) than an athlete who has placed well in the last Kona race (say Daniela Ryf who finished 2nd and is currently leading the rankings). Leanda has to „race competitively“ for her automatic qualifier, while Daniela could „just finish“. (Again, I’m not implying that this is likely or that she even thinks about this.)

I expect that this „disparity“ will be addressed in the next KPR rules change: The increased number of candidates that could get a Kona slot without racing competitively is much larger (basically, most of the Top10 men and women should already be safe from a points perspective), so I’m sure there will be a few more cases this season. (We have already seen a potential case last year when Tim O’Donnell used a 33rd place finish in Florida as his „validation“ IM.)

My Personal Opinion

My base position on validation is unchanged since I wrote my thought on it in May: 

I think it is obvious that no-one thinks that a recent Kona winner is not „worthy“ of starting in the Kona Pro field. But if Kona winners could just rock up to Kona, they might have an unfair advantage: By not having to race any IMs, they could be better rested than all the other participants that have to struggle for points to make it to Kona. Therefore, I am (a bit reluctantly) agreeing with the concept of validation.

However, I think that the rules changes made (and those that I expect to follow) are just making things more and more complicated and subjective. Therefore, my suggestion would be to accept any Ironman-distance race as validation. (Pete and Rinnie wouldn’t have had to race an Ironman if their Challenge Roth finish would have counted as validation.) However, I can’t see that Ironman would see this as a viable solution so I think that this will unfortunately continue to be a contentious issue.

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