Unofficial KPR at End of August Cutoff

August 23, 2015 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Analysis 

Here is my quick calculation of the KPR at the end of August, deciding 10 slots for the male and 7 slots for the female. These slots are in addition to the July slots (for those, please check my post on the July ranking) and before any rolldowns.

My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx. I do not count the July slots in my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the August Top 10 male and Top 7 females. I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(11)”) are outside of the August slots.

Male KPR Ranking

Other than changes in the order of slots, the last weekend has not seen any changes in the Top 10 rankings for August slots.

Rank  Name Points Races
1 Manocchio, Guilherme 5540 3+2 (855/145)
2 Raelert, Andreas 4505 2+3 (235/240)
3 Stein, Boris 4465 2+3 (450/115)
4 Chevrot, Denis 4290 2+3 (720/320)
5 Rapp, Jordan 4180 2+3 (1280/180)
6 Ambrose, Paul 4155 3+2 (340/255)
7 Cartmell, Fraser 3785 2+3 (1600/85)
8 Chrabot, Matt 3630 1+3 (1600/640)
9 Jurkiewicz, Jeremy 3475 3+2 (705/125)
10 Daerr, Justin 3440 3+2 (340/85)
(11*) Casadei, Alberto 3440 2+3 (960/400)
(12) Wurtele, Trevor 3395 2+3 (960/320)
(13) Aigroz, Mike 3350 3+2 (540/180)

*) Alberto has the same points as Justin, but Justin has the better tie-breaker (his best score is a win in Mont Tremblant, Alberto’s best is a third in IM Maastricht).

Female KPR Ranking

Rank  Name Points Races
1 Vesterby, Michelle 6350 3+2 (1600/345)
2 Tajsich, Sonja 5360 3+2 (685/345)
3 Stienen, Astrid 4840 3+2 (1070/170)
4 Li, Shiao-Yu 4600 3+2 (960/180)
5 Piampiano, Sarah 4410 2+3 (1280/320)
6 Snow, Cait 4375 3+2 (340/540)
7 Goos, Sofie 4220 3+2 (340/320)
(8) Clifford, Ashley 4130 3+1 (1070/500)
(9) Wassner, Laurel 4060 2+3 (230/345)
(10) Wee, Bree 3790 3+2 (685/85)

 

Ironman Vichy 2015 (Aug 30th) – Predictions

August 26, 2015 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

IMVichy

Update (Aug 26th): I have added Natascha Badmann and Nicole Woysch to the female start list, while Corinne Abraham said she is definitely not racing in Vichy and unlikely to race before Kona.

Ironman Vichy is held on a similar course as Challenge Vichy in previous years and is organized by the same company (that was bought by WTC). The race struggled to field a decent Pro field in the last few years and it was shortened to a half IM because of extreme weather conditions – therefore I don’t have reliable data from the earlier editions. However, it could be a fast race, especially on the bike.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Vichy is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:24:25 08:21:49 00:47:11 04:32:48 02:59:25 (7)
2 5 Marc Duelsen GER 08:39:27 08:40:27 00:52:33 04:40:35 03:01:19 52
3 6 Michael Ruenz GER 08:46:44 08:57:41 00:53:08 04:50:18 02:58:18 117
4 22 Pascal Ramali GER 08:47:57 08:58:33 00:58:56 04:38:52 03:05:08 (120)
5 9 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:54:06 09:10:33 00:54:17 04:52:35 03:02:15 170
6 3 Christian Brader GER 08:55:33 08:55:13 00:56:40 04:54:18 02:59:35 108
7 14 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:00:42 09:01:24 01:00:28 04:50:22 03:04:51 128
8 25 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:01:29 09:00:00 00:49:08 04:55:33 03:11:49 125
9 8 Patrick Jaberg SUI 09:02:53 09:05:43 00:53:51 04:53:03 03:10:59 148
10 7 AJ Baucco USA 09:04:35 09:04:51 00:52:34 04:53:15 03:13:46 145
11 11 Nicolas Hemet FRA 09:07:09 09:08:52 00:56:17 04:50:41 03:15:11 162
12 2 Bertrand Billard FRA 09:08:05 09:23:17 00:48:27 04:42:33 03:32:05 (227)
13 10 Ivan Risti ITA 09:11:10 09:17:14 00:48:18 05:02:57 03:14:55 (200)
14 28 Jim Lubinski USA 09:18:20 09:30:30 01:01:35 05:02:49 03:08:56 254
15 15 Steve Rosinski USA 09:36:05 09:47:40 00:57:13 05:04:09 03:29:43 (321)
16 27 Oliver Gonzalez MEX 09:42:11 09:53:53 00:50:25 05:35:20 03:11:26 (348)
17 17 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:45:23 09:57:09 00:54:15 05:11:04 03:35:04 (353)
18 26 Anthony Pannier FRA 09:49:29 09:57:21 00:49:05 04:51:15 04:04:09 (353)
19 16 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:55:12 10:10:49 01:01:40 05:23:00 03:25:31 397
20 13 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:07:47 10:20:00 00:59:20 05:06:41 03:56:46 (424)
21 20 Maksim Kalinin RUS 10:36:07 10:38:34 01:13:28 05:32:57 03:44:42 456
22 19 Michal Jalovecky CZE 10:40:34 10:52:18 01:01:36 05:58:45 03:35:13 (466)
12 Guillaume Jeannin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Christopher Sweet USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Frederic Schaffner FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:24:06 09:23:37 00:59:37 05:09:00 03:10:30 17
1 40 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:33:14 09:29:33 01:01:42 05:05:12 03:21:20 25
2 43 Tine Holst DEN 10:06:24 10:09:37 01:05:42 05:23:19 03:32:22 112
3 44 Maria Lemeseva RUS 10:10:34 10:20:07 01:08:55 05:31:08 03:25:31 137
4 42 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 10:11:02 10:13:14 01:03:20 05:42:56 03:19:46 (117)
5 45 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:19:27 10:27:01 01:02:56 05:36:19 03:35:12 157
6 48 Nicole Woysch GER 10:24:05 10:41:26 00:58:50 05:31:04 03:49:12 (165)
7 47 Anna Rovira Garrido ESP 10:28:54 10:41:43 01:11:01 05:33:34 03:39:20 (166)
46 Michelle Vella Wood MLT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Dirk Bockel is returning to IM racing after a long injury break. If he is anywhere close to his previous form, he is the clear favorite to win this race and start his quest to qualify for Kona 2016:

  • Dirk Bockel: 60% (1-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 16% (5-1)
  • Michael Ruenz: 8% (11-1)
  • Mauro Baertsch: 8% (11-1)
  • Christian Brader: 3% (36-1)
  • Mike Schifferle: 2% (52-1)
  • Andrey Lyatskiy: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

Corinne has been on virtually all July and August IM start list, but as she is qualified for Kona without additional racing, she is won’t be racing in Vichy. In her absence, Natascha Badmann is the clear favorite:

  • Natascha Badmann: 73% (1-1)
  • Tine Holst: 11% (8-1)
  • Maria Lemeseva: 6% (17-1)
  • Gurutze Frades Larralde: 5% (18-1)
  • Alyssa Godesky: 4% (27-1)

Ironman Copenhagen 2015 – Analyzing Results

August 25, 2015 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Race Conditions

Copenhagen was again a pretty quick course, especially on the bike. As usual, we saw some quick times even if they were not close to the course record times from one or two years ago.

Male Race Results

Henrik Hyledlund was intent on defending his title from last year, however Guilherme Manocchio’s race best 2:54 marathon proved too strong for Henrik who had to be content with the second place. Third place went to Andreas Niedrig – at 47 years of age he must be one of the oldest podium finishers in an IM!

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:48:16 04:26:43 02:54:15 08:14:56 -19:41 US$ 10000
2 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 00:48:13 04:27:07 03:02:31 08:21:51 -05:57 US$ 5000
3 Andreas Niedrig GER 00:47:02 04:21:47 03:14:03 08:27:37 -34:51 US$ 3250
4 Mike Schifferle SUI 00:57:49 04:30:37 02:52:50 08:27:57 -21:12 US$ 2500
5 Jan Raphael GER 00:48:20 04:35:09 03:04:03 08:31:50 07:40 US$ 1750
6 Mike Aigroz SUI 00:48:17 04:35:16 03:13:11 08:40:35 09:26 US$ 1250
7 Pontus Lindberg SWE 00:50:23 04:41:07 03:11:45 08:47:20 11:32 US$ 750
8 Wouter Monchy BEL 00:50:20 04:42:41 03:14:57 08:53:03 -40:35 US$ 500
9 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 00:50:53 04:42:12 03:15:05 08:53:42 16:00  
10 Kasper Ougaard DEN 00:58:14 04:43:16 03:08:10 08:55:47 -25:49  
11 Michael Louys BEL 01:00:23 04:46:36 03:05:40 08:57:57 -22:37  
12 Harri Sokk EST 00:56:50 04:33:47 03:40:30 09:16:50 12:19  
13 Vincent Depuiset FRA 01:05:38 04:58:10 03:14:02 09:23:58 -13:25  
14 Gilian Oriet SUI 00:58:09 04:51:10 03:51:49 09:46:33 n/a  
15 Gili Oriol ESP 00:55:39 05:15:18 03:55:41 10:12:58 n/a  
16 Luca Cozza ITA 00:58:19 05:05:00 04:14:39 10:25:09 n/a  
17 Alexander Wulff DEN 01:14:07 05:19:32 04:06:47 10:48:01 -14:25  
18 Mathias Nagel GER 01:29:00 05:31:46 04:47:56 11:54:13 -1:39:25  
19 Alberto Perassi ITA 00:57:35 05:29:02 06:14:39 12:57:41 n/a  
  Anders Christensen DNK 00:55:34 04:44:32   DNF  
  Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:50:44     DNF  

Female Race Results

Michelle Vesterby lead the race from wire to wire, winning her home IM in just under 9 hours. Sofie Goos finished a solid second with the race best 3:07 marathon, securing a Kona slot. Sonja Tajsich finished third, also getting a last minute August slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:50:45 04:52:22 03:12:10 08:59:49 -10:59 US$ 10000
2 Sofie Goos BEL 00:56:35 04:54:22 03:07:59 09:03:07 -19:37 US$ 5000
3 Sonja Tajsich GER 00:58:17 04:52:28 03:13:23 09:08:43 -08:35 US$ 3250
4 Regula Rohrbach SUI 00:56:26 04:53:23 03:42:47 09:38:07 08:28 US$ 2500
5 Lucie Reed CZE 00:50:47 05:17:07 03:26:46 09:39:43 09:27 US$ 1750
6 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:00:40 05:17:22 03:21:05 09:45:20 -25:53 US$ 1250
7 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 01:00:28 05:51:00 03:14:54 10:13:42 19:28 US$ 750
  Vicky Gill GBR 01:04:01 05:09:53   DNF  
  Kathrin Walther GER 00:58:07 05:21:29   DNF  

Ironman Japan 2015 – Analyzing Results

August 23, 2015 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Race Conditions

Ironman Japan is always one of the slowest races, and this year was no exception with an adjustment of -27:28 mainly because of a very slow bike.

Male Race Results

The race was decided on the bike: Swen Sandberg posted the fastest bike ride of the day and won by a comfortable margin. Patrick Evoe used his strong bike and fastest run to finish second, followed by early race leader Simon Cochrane.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Swen Sundberg GER 00:54:53 05:09:58 03:10:06 09:22:56 01:39 US$ 5000
2 Patrick Evoe USA 00:59:45 05:14:27 03:08:29 09:28:14 01:50 US$ 2750
3 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:51:55 05:25:24 03:09:08 09:31:56 -00:28 US$ 1750
4 Yu Shinozaki JPN 00:57:27 05:13:57 03:32:59 09:49:56 -41:55 US$ 1250
5 Daiki Masuda JPN 00:59:41 05:47:34 03:13:44 10:06:41 -12:18 US$ 1000
6 Colin O’Brady USA 00:54:55 05:47:39 03:24:38 10:14:12 n/a US$ 750
7 Daniel Brown AUS 01:05:59 06:19:55 05:38:26 13:14:29 1:49:13  
  Xavier Nunez ESP 01:07:59 06:02:34   DNF  
  Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:51:57     DNF  
  Nick Baldwin SEY 00:54:54     DNF  

Female Race Results

Shia-yu Li had the best run of the day (only a few seconds slower than the men’s best run!) to win the race – for the third time in a row and a Kona slot! She was followed by Bree Wee who was leading the race for most of the day and Emi Sakai.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:12:51 05:54:25 03:08:53 10:22:59 -06:35 US$ 5000
2 Bree Wee USA 00:56:26 05:52:01 03:38:53 10:33:59 20:12 US$ 2750
3 Emi Sakai JPN 01:08:58 05:45:37 03:43:33 10:45:06 -04:06 US$ 1750
4 Michelle Duffield AUS 01:04:53 06:21:53 03:30:03 11:03:27 27:34 US$ 1250
5 Sandra Fantini FRA 00:58:44 06:19:10 03:42:15 11:07:49 n/a US$ 1000
6 Kathryn Haesner NZL 01:01:31 06:38:42 03:52:19 11:40:34 n/a US$ 750
7 Mami Ishii JPN 01:04:56 06:31:19 05:33:50 13:16:57 n/a  
  Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:55:13 05:56:12   DNF  
  Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:07:58     DNF  

Ironman Copenhagen 2015 (Aug 23rd) – Predictions

August 18, 2015 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

IMCPHLogo

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2010 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:39 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:54:36
2011 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:11:15 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:52:42
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:20:09 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 09:12:27
2013 Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN) 08:12:41 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:37:36
2014 Henrik Hyldelund (DEN) 08:03:39 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:53:33

From 2010 to 2012 the race was organized as “Challenge Copenhagen” on the same course.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 00:46:09 04:16:41 02:56:58 08:03:39
2 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:45:58 04:30:30 02:49:24 08:10:53
3 Timo Bracht GER 00:46:21 04:27:16 02:53:54 08:11:32

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:48:37 04:44:09 03:16:15 08:53:33
2 Sofie Goos BEL 00:54:30 04:56:38 03:10:36 09:06:08
3 Mareen Hufe GER 00:58:44 04:58:39 03:22:44 09:25:18

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:39 Henrik Hyldelund 2014-08-24
Swim overall 00:45:22 Stephen Bayliss 2011-08-01
Bike overall 04:16:41 Henrik Hyldelund 2014-08-24
Run overall 02:38:58 Mads Vittrup 2011-08-01
Total female 08:37:36 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:48:29 Ann Lønnberg 2011-08-01
Bike female 04:39:58 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Run female 03:00:51 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 22:41.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2010 30:07 01:24 09:53 10:08 18 30:07 01:24 09:53 10:08
2011 23:45 02:48 11:13 06:44 19 26:56 02:06 10:33 08:26
2012 17:45 02:03 10:25 04:25 16 23:52 02:05 10:31 07:06
2013 26:36 00:50 15:15 06:59 20 24:33 01:46 11:42 07:04
2014 15:11 01:39 07:25 02:58 22 22:41 01:45 10:50 06:15

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 08:03:33 08:46:01 00:45:56 04:16:49 02:55:48 69
2 2 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:15:48 08:42:19 00:48:42 04:34:49 02:47:17 56
3 6 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:15:52 08:34:39 00:53:30 04:31:25 02:45:56 32
4 18 Jan Raphael GER 08:18:32 08:37:27 00:46:38 04:32:24 02:54:30 39
5 26 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:19:57 08:44:22 00:46:39 04:28:42 02:59:36 66
6 24 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:20:41 08:49:54 00:46:44 04:32:29 02:56:28 90
7 7 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:22:21 08:52:43 00:48:00 04:34:13 02:55:09 100
8 4 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:27:21 08:51:33 00:51:04 04:40:55 02:50:23 98
9 28 Pontus Lindberg SWE 08:31:11 09:00:08 00:51:12 04:39:26 02:55:33 (130)
10 23 Anders Christensen DNK 08:34:08 09:07:28 00:00:00 00:00:00 00:00:00 (159)
11 17 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:39:51 09:02:20 00:58:16 04:38:09 02:58:26 139
12 15 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:50:34 09:15:38 00:46:01 04:34:40 03:24:53 202
13 9 Harri Sokk EST 09:00:34 09:30:12 00:57:03 04:38:56 03:19:35 (259)
14 27 Kasper Ougaard DEN 09:13:07 09:58:52 00:59:59 04:46:32 03:21:36 (368)
15 13 Michael Louys BEL 09:15:39 09:46:04 00:59:06 04:51:11 03:20:22 (324)
16 10 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:19:04 10:25:14 00:49:24 05:05:57 03:18:43 455
17 12 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:27:07 09:57:56 01:05:21 04:59:03 03:17:43 363
18 5 Wouter Monchy BEL 09:28:25 10:05:16 00:48:05 04:52:15 03:43:05 (393)
19 19 Ivan Kharin RUS 09:29:29 10:14:07 01:05:04 04:58:08 03:21:17 422
20 14 Alexander Wulff DEN 10:57:14 11:39:50 01:08:22 05:40:26 04:03:25 (495)
21 25 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:14:18 12:11:01 01:08:24 05:36:48 04:24:06 496
22 8 Mathias Nagel GER 13:02:42 14:08:54 01:26:23 05:53:26 05:37:53 (498)
3 Luca Cozza ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Alberto Perassi n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Gilian Oriet SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Gili Oriol ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Among the participants Fraser Cartmell (3.615 points) and Guilherme Manocchio (3.540 points) are in the best position to qualify. In addition, Mike Aigroz (2.825) and Mike Schifferle (2.525) could get an August slot with at least a podium finish or better.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 36 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:00:25 09:23:37 00:57:16 04:55:20 03:02:48 16
2 29 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:03:43 09:36:09 00:50:04 04:56:44 03:11:55 40
3 38 Sofie Goos BEL 09:06:30 09:36:49 00:54:04 04:57:40 03:09:45 42
4 40 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:08:52 09:31:32 01:00:04 04:56:55 03:06:54 28
5 34 Lucie Reed CZE 09:17:23 09:45:18 00:49:00 05:06:08 03:17:15 55
6 33 Astrid Stienen GER 09:19:22 09:44:36 00:56:42 05:01:19 03:16:20 53
7 35 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:20:07 09:56:24 00:55:01 04:54:30 03:25:36 81
8 30 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:21:05 10:07:08 01:05:55 05:00:59 03:09:12 108
9 32 Kathrin Walther GER 09:36:37 10:20:34 00:58:03 05:05:36 03:27:58 141
10 31 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 09:50:29 10:22:25 00:58:03 05:30:04 03:17:22 (146)
11 37 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:00:38 10:32:40 01:01:02 05:22:34 03:32:01 164
12 39 Vicky Gill GBR 10:40:43 11:22:15 01:08:15 05:45:17 03:42:11 (183)

With Michelle Vesterby and Sonja Tajsich there are two athletes looking for just a few more points to make it to Kona – a Top 7 is probably enough for them. Sofie Goos could also still qualify, but she will need a win for a safe slot.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Henrik Hyldelund: 31% (2-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 17% (5-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 14% (6-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 12% (7-1)
  • Jan Raphael: 10% (9-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 9% (10-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 6% (16-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Corinne Abraham: 31% (2-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 28% (3-1)
  • Sofie Goos: 24% (3-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich: 9% (10-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 4% (22-1)
  • Regula Rohrbach: 2% (50-1)

Next Page »

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