Ironman Canada (Whistler) 2014 (July 27th) – Predictions

July 23, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Previous Winners

Last year was the first time that IM Canada was held on its new course in Whistler.

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Trevor Wurtele (CAN) 08:39:33 Uli Bromme (USA) 09:28:13

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:54:27 04:46:51 02:54:31 08:39:33
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:58:13 04:42:53 03:00:12 08:45:15
3 Paul Amey GBR 00:51:07 04:55:51 03:02:19 08:53:27

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Uli Bromme USA 01:03:02 05:13:51 03:06:53 09:28:13
2 Lisa Roberts USA 01:03:04 05:22:10 03:08:53 09:38:34
3 Gillian Moody CAN 00:56:51 05:29:16 03:18:39 09:49:09

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:39:33 Trevor Wurtele 2013-08-25
Swim overall 00:48:45 Bryan Rhodes 2013-08-25
Bike overall 04:42:53 Matthew Russell 2013-08-25
Run overall 02:52:44 Mike Schifferle 2013-08-25
Total female 09:28:13 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Swim female 00:55:13 Christine Hammond 2013-08-25
Bike female 05:13:51 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Run female 03:06:53 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Canada is 03:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Canada

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 03:14 -00:01 -01:14 03:20 19 03:14 -00:01 -01:14 03:20

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Canada has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:21:54 08:24:55 00:48:33 04:32:01 02:59:04 8
2 11 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:40:22 08:43:30 00:51:04 04:41:47 02:55:07 (54)
3 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:43:28 08:46:37 00:48:21 04:40:06 03:13:39 59
4 3 Matthew Russell USA 08:49:32 08:52:43 01:00:20 04:46:21 02:58:38 90
5 1 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:54:08 08:57:21 00:54:02 04:47:54 03:09:44 111
6 5 Matt Lieto USA 09:12:56 09:16:16 00:52:23 04:49:55 03:26:40 194
7 10 Anthony Toth CAN 09:22:27 09:25:50 00:57:34 05:00:34 03:18:10 224
8 6 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 09:25:41 09:29:06 00:55:14 05:02:15 03:26:18 243
7 Andrew Drobeck USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 21 Bree Wee USA 09:43:13 09:46:44 00:54:01 05:19:07 03:26:30 57
2 25 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:45:45 09:49:17 01:02:36 05:22:51 03:15:35 65
3 20 Jackie Arendt USA 09:48:15 09:51:48 00:55:05 05:28:03 03:21:05 71
5 23 Karen Thibodeau CAN 10:06:23 10:10:02 00:55:00 05:27:50 03:25:48 (106)
6 26 Christine Fletcher CAN 10:13:46 10:17:28 00:59:15 05:27:32 03:43:16 125
7 27 Jenni Plane USA 12:47:35 12:52:13 01:02:32 06:25:46 04:45:10 (162)
24 Anna Cleaver NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Trevor Wurtele is the defending champion, but it won’t be easy to repeat. My favorite is Marino Vanhoenacker who seems to be finding his way back to his great form from the 2012 season. In addition, Trevor faces Matthew Russell (who battled with him for most of he 2013 race) and Jeff Symonds who’d love to follow his win on the old course (now Challenge Penticton) with a win on the new Ironman Canada course.

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 55% (1-1)
  • Trevor Wurtele: 20% (4-1)
  • Jeff Symonds: 11% (8-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 8% (12-1)

Female Race Participants

This race promises to be an interesting race for the final KPR July slots: Bree Wee and Jackie Arendt are not too far off the mark, and a win will probably give them enough points for a Kona slot. Bree Wee is my pre-race favorite – she will race from the front and give everything she has. Jackie Arendt is strong enough to battle it out with Bree. If Mackenzie finds her great 2011 form, she might offer a surprise.

  • Bree Wee: 35% (2-1)
  • Mackenzie Madison: 25% (3-1)
  • Jackie Arendt: 24% (3-1)
  • Karen Thibodeau: 4% (25-1)

KPR Situation

Men

There are two athletes that are in still in the race for KPR points: Matthew Russell (3.615 points) should already have enough points to qualify – he can further improve his total by finishing at least 8th. Marino Vanhoenacker is currently at 2.920 points, he needs about 600 points to get to my projected cutoff at 3.500 points. This means that he has to aim to finish 5th or higher. Trevor Wurtele with 1.965 points is also able to score enough points for a slot, but he has already indicated that he is not interested in racing Kona this year.

Women

My projected cutoff for the women is at 4.900 points which makes it quite hard for the participants to reach this number. Heather Jackson (4.260 points) would have had the best chances – but she is missing from the latest start list. Bree Wee (3.250 points) and Jackie Arendt (2.925) might be able to qualify with a win, but as they already have five results (and their worst result would get bumped from their total score) qualifying will be very close even with a win.

Ironman Switzerland 2014 (July 27th) – Predictions

July 21, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Update (July 22nd): There have been a few changes to the start list. Most notably, Natascha Badmann and Kristin Möller have been added to the women’s field – also changing the situation for the July KPR cutoff. (Thanks to Angela Naeth for letting me know that my data was outdated!)

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Christoph Mauch (SUI) 08:21:48 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:10:51
2006 Mathias Hecht (SUI) 08:26:01 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:24:18
2007 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:24:58 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:20:40
2008 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:16:05 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:30:12
2009 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:20:00 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:14:35
2010 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:12:40 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:00:04
2011 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:19:51 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:03:26
2012 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:17:13 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:20:16
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:33:39 Anja Beranek (GER) 09:21:31

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:59 04:32:16 03:01:59 08:33:39
2 Ivan Rana ESP 00:52:37 04:45:57 02:59:09 08:40:55
3 Per Bittner GER 00:55:47 04:49:07 02:57:54 08:46:23

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Anja Beranek GER 00:58:21 04:56:23 03:22:55 09:21:31
2 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:52:38 05:06:57 03:24:09 09:28:28
3 Erika Csomor HUN 01:01:21 05:10:12 03:17:24 09:33:17

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:40 Ronnie Schildknecht 2010-07-25
Swim overall 00:45:29 Benjamin Sanson 2005-07-15
Bike overall 04:27:42 Ronnie Schildknecht 2012-07-15
Run overall 02:41:58 Clemente Alonso-McKernan 2011-07-10
Total female 09:00:04 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Swim female 00:51:35 Alison Hayden 2005-07-15
Bike female 04:43:53 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Run female 03:04:24 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Switzerland is 07:57.

Race Adjustments for IM Switzerland

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19 6 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19
2006 15:12 01:09 04:34 00:02 21 05:41 00:47 03:40 -03:39
2007 16:41 -00:58 10:09 01:36 25 09:21 00:12 05:50 -01:54
2008 08:49 -00:10 01:43 01:50 22 09:13 00:06 04:48 -00:58
2009 12:50 -00:57 05:50 05:19 30 09:56 -00:06 05:00 00:18
2010 07:14 -01:25 05:36 01:59 27 09:29 -00:19 05:06 00:34
2011 11:01 -02:31 00:56 07:24 17 09:42 -00:38 04:31 01:33
2012 08:30 -03:10 04:02 02:18 24 09:33 -00:57 04:27 01:39
2013 -04:50 -05:13 02:43 -05:08 35 07:57 -01:26 04:15 00:53

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Switzerland has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:31:36 08:39:15 00:47:22 04:43:08 03:03:47 42
2 10 David Plese SLO 08:34:20 08:42:02 00:53:26 04:43:39 02:57:46 49
3 11 Filip Ospaly CZE 08:35:05 08:42:47 00:46:44 04:47:54 02:49:15 (53)
4 8 Michael Goehner GER 08:42:09 08:49:58 00:53:39 04:45:08 03:03:43 71
5 7 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:42:22 08:50:11 00:47:51 04:50:00 03:05:53 72
6 2 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:43:16 08:51:06 00:48:11 04:40:56 03:16:07 76
7 3 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:44:40 08:52:31 00:48:50 04:51:16 03:11:41 87
8 20 Darby Thomas FIN 08:44:42 08:52:33 00:57:15 04:45:41 03:00:03 88
9 12 Joe Skipper GBR 08:49:45 08:57:40 00:53:50 04:47:19 03:04:48 113
(9) 34 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:49:57 08:57:53 00:54:48 04:54:33 03:03:23 114
10 4 Mathias Hecht SUI 08:50:11 08:58:07 00:49:06 04:51:09 03:12:18 (116)
11 9 Sergio Marques POR 08:55:16 09:03:16 00:55:31 05:04:34 03:00:15 138
12 6 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:56:03 09:04:04 01:00:35 04:50:53 03:05:48 143
13 5 Boris Stein GER 08:56:15 09:04:16 00:56:44 04:38:39 03:07:16 (145)
14 29 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 08:58:02 09:06:05 00:52:10 04:54:51 03:11:34 (155)
(15) 32 Vincent Riess AUT 08:58:47 09:06:50 00:53:45 05:56:55 02:58:31 159
(16) 33 Bertrand Billard FRA 09:00:26 09:08:31 00:48:02 04:41:11 03:17:38 (163)
15 15 Reto Stutz SUI 09:03:35 09:11:43 00:56:57 04:44:14 03:17:27 (177)
16 21 Gabriele Mazzetta ITA 09:07:08 09:15:19 00:51:55 04:59:10 03:12:21 (190)
17 19 Tomas Mika CZE 09:24:16 09:32:42 00:52:27 05:16:09 03:09:53 (257)
18 28 Stefan Eichheimer GER 09:26:28 09:34:56 00:57:35 04:56:32 03:18:44 (264)
19 30 Daniel Mueller GER 09:30:04 09:38:36 00:51:15 05:05:44 03:37:50 282
20 18 David Jilek CZE 09:42:33 09:51:16 00:58:18 04:57:43 03:33:24 (330)
21 24 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:54:45 10:03:39 01:00:05 05:22:20 03:32:09 371
22 17 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:13:04 10:22:14 01:17:55 04:52:30 03:49:43 (417)
23 22 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:52:18 12:02:57 01:11:45 05:56:37 04:43:06 452
24 27 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:58:05 12:08:49 01:12:22 06:08:08 04:30:39 453
16 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Eduardo Crooke Gonzalez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Roland Schlappal AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Mauro Baertsch SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
(1) 58 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:19:36 09:27:58 01:01:05 05:02:13 03:16:35 16
1 54 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:22:54 09:31:19 01:01:43 05:12:55 03:09:21 22
2 52 Erika Csomor HUN 09:23:05 09:31:30 00:57:55 05:13:47 03:13:21 23
3 51 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:26:14 09:34:42 00:47:38 05:09:46 03:18:38 (32)
(5) 59 Kristin Moeller GER 09:27:06 09:35:35 01:03:31 05:19:35 03:06:11 32
4   Astrid Ganzow GER 09:46:14 09:55:00 00:58:32 05:09:46 03:31:50 (79)
5 66 Michaela Rudolf AUT 09:47:31 09:56:18 01:05:09 05:12:47 03:30:04 83
6 53 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:47:31 09:56:18 00:57:33 05:10:23 03:37:33 83
7 60 Nicole Klingler GER 10:03:52 10:12:54 01:06:10 05:30:59 03:33:57 (113)
8 62 Saleta Castro ESP 10:04:20 10:13:22 00:56:19 05:28:10 03:40:00 113
9 65 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:04:34 10:13:36 01:14:22 05:26:24 03:21:40 114
10 55 Evi Neuscheler GER 10:13:39 10:22:50 01:07:18 05:17:49 03:32:34 (133)
11 68 Monique Grossrieder SUI 10:14:50 10:24:02 01:05:22 05:37:27 03:29:21 133
12 64 Nicole Woysch GER 10:16:04 10:25:17 00:58:35 05:30:28 03:47:39 136
13 61 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:30:21 10:39:47 01:02:49 05:40:03 03:37:34 (149)
14 63 Megumi Shigaki JPN 10:43:59 10:53:37 00:59:12 05:41:39 04:04:48 154
67 Sabrina Mohn SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
56 Carolin Lehrieder GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The biggest name on the start list is Pete Jacobs – just one week after Roth he will try to validate his automatic Kona slot by just finishing. Even though he is the statistical odds-on favorite, I don’t see him to contend for the win. Mathias Hecht and Jan Van Berkel will try to continue the Swiss winning streak, but they face strong competition from Eastern European David Plese and Filip Ospaly, British Stephen Bayliss and German athletes Georg Potrebitsch and Michael Goehner.

  • Pete Jacobs: 29% (2-1)
  • David Plese: 14% (6-1)
  • Mathias Hecht: 11% (8-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 10% (9-1)
  • Filip Ospaly: 9% (10-1)
  • Georg Potrebitsch: 9% (10-1)
  • Michael Goehner: 6% (14-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 6% (16-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 5% (21-1)

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, Erika Csomor has to be considered the favorite – she’s doing her „normal“ Austria – Switzerland double. Sonja Tajsich is still on the start list, but after her disappointing race in Frankfurt she’s probably a non-start. Similar to the men, Celine Schaerer and Regula Rohrbach will try to win another edition for their home country.

  • Erika Csomor: 38% (2-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich: 38% (2-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 13% (6-1)
  • Regula Rohrbach: 7% (13-1)

Assessing the impact of Natascha and Kristin is tricky. As for Sonja, they have raced in Frankfurt and are probably not yet fully recovered. However, both just need a few extra KPR points, so they seem to be willing to risk a start so soon after their last IM. They might have a great day, but will probably not contend for the win. 

KPR Situation

Men

As noted above, Pete Jacobs just has has to finish to validate his automatic Kona slot.

After him, there are two athletes in a good position to qualify in July: David Plese (3.325) and Filip Ospaly (3.170) just need a few hundred additional points, so a 7th place should be enough for either of them. Behind them, Stephen Bayliss (1.690), Michael Geoehner (1.590) and Boris Stein (1.500) would need a win to get to the cutoff number – not very likely. Other athletes – such as Jan Van Berkel (1.215) – are already too far back, but they could use the points to increase their chances for an August slot.

Women

On the women’s side there is no athlete that can get to my projected cutoff of 4.900 points. The best placed athlete is Erika Csomor at 2.460 points.

The addition of Natascha and Kristin make Switzerland a lot more interesting from a KPR perspective. Kristin (4.790) just needs few hundred extra points to be really sure of a slot, so 10th is probably enough for her. Natascha has 3.755 points and needs at least 1.000 points to get a slot.  A 4th place (960 points) might be enough, but a 3rd (1.280 points) would be better.

Guest appearance on “Jim and the Other Guy”

July 17, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: ReaderInfo 

JimAndTheOtherGuy

Today, I spent a fun hour chatting with “Jim and the Other Guy” on their podcast about TriRating, IM Predictions and a lot of other things related to Ironman racing. Give it a listen, I’m sure you’ll like it as well!

New Episode of IM Predictions Podcast with Rachel Joyce

July 13, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Podcast 

JoyceBikeSideLong

The latest Episode of the IM Predictions Podcast has been released. This week, I’ve had the chance to chat with Rachel Joyce, one of the big names in the Challenge Roth race. She talked about her development as a Professional athlete, why Roth is such a special race and her preparations for the highlight races in Roth and later this year in Kona. She also offered her Top 3 picks for the men’s race.

Photo Credit: Jay Prasuhn

Challenge Roth 2014 (July 20th) – Predictions

July 10, 2014 by · 1 Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Update (July 11th): I somehow missed Erik-Simon Strijk in the start list – thanks to Erik-Simon for letting me know. I’ve added him to the table.

With Roth, the biggest of the non-WTC Ironman-distance races is coming up – and what a field they managed to put together!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:58:45 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:14:06
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:00:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:01:17
2007 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:54:23 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:51:55
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:09:34 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:45:48
2009 Michael Goehner (GER) 07:55:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:31:59
2010 Rasmus Henning (DEN) 07:52:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:19:13
2011 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:41:33 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:18:13
2012 James Cunnama (ZAF) 07:59:59 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:45:04
2013 Dirk Bockel (LUX) 07:52:01 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:40:35

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Dirk Bockel LUX 00:46:05 04:15:05 02:48:41 07:52:01
2 James Cunnama ZAF 00:48:38 04:23:46 02:49:16 08:04:13
3 Timo Bracht GER 00:48:31 04:32:09 02:44:55 08:08:18

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:51:45 04:42:21 03:03:07 08:40:35
2 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:54:40 04:39:35 03:09:33 08:46:22
3 Julia Gajer GER 00:51:48 04:56:35 02:59:55 08:51:04

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:41:33 Andreas Raelert 2011-07-10
Swim overall 00:45:57 Pete Jacobs 2009-07-12
Bike overall 04:11:43 Andreas Raelert 2011-07-10
Run overall 02:39:43 Rasmus Henning 2010-07-18
Total female 08:18:13 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10
Swim female 00:47:27 Ute Mueckel 2005-06-24
Bike female 04:36:33 Chrissie Wellington 2010-07-18
Run female 02:44:35 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 19:45. Traditionally, it is one of the fastest courses on the calendar. By all descriptions, the course itself is not „easy“ – there are some steep hills on the bike, but they aren’t too long and followed by long descents that allow power-riders to post fast times. The run is flat and on a crushed surface that is relatively easy on the legs.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29 9 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29
2006 12:37 01:17 06:34 03:26 37 15:19 01:13 10:03 04:28
2007 22:56 00:52 10:30 06:52 28 17:52 01:06 10:12 05:16
2008 20:40 01:58 06:46 07:55 38 18:34 01:19 09:20 05:56
2009 26:03 02:04 14:42 05:04 41 20:04 01:28 10:25 05:45
2010 19:15 00:27 07:23 05:16 42 19:56 01:18 09:55 05:40
2011 20:55 01:49 15:23 05:18 34 20:04 01:22 10:41 05:37
2012 16:05 02:22 05:41 04:54 50 19:34 01:30 10:04 05:32
2013 21:16 00:26 13:25 04:46 37 19:45 01:23 10:26 05:27

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:02:10 08:20:29 00:46:45 04:33:21 02:56:19 2
2 9 Nils Frommhold GER 08:03:07 08:21:28 00:46:45 04:30:06 02:53:09 (3)
3 7 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:03:28 08:21:50 00:47:41 04:36:51 02:51:59 4
4 3 Timo Bracht GER 08:04:11 08:22:34 00:49:30 04:36:46 02:51:48 5
5 15 Joe Gambles AUS 08:18:14 08:37:09 00:48:08 04:39:15 03:03:24 31
6 2 James Cunnama ZAF 08:20:06 08:39:06 00:49:55 04:44:55 03:00:55 40
7 6 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:20:15 08:39:15 00:47:22 04:43:08 03:03:47 41
8 5 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:20:56 08:39:57 00:47:38 04:38:08 03:09:23 42
9 4 Markus Fachbach GER 08:23:32 08:42:39 00:49:48 04:43:09 03:04:05 (50)
10 18 Swen Sundberg GER 08:31:11 08:50:36 00:52:16 04:45:13 03:08:33 74
11 17 Per Bittner GER 08:31:41 08:51:07 00:49:57 04:52:46 03:02:02 77
12 11 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:34:31 08:54:03 00:54:22 04:46:27 03:04:59 96
13 13 Fabian Conrad GER 08:35:48 08:55:23 00:52:30 04:48:58 03:05:18 104
(14) 10 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:36:09 08:55:45 00:53:00 04:48:47 03:08:07 107
14 23 Joel Jameson GBR 08:36:52 08:56:30 00:56:47 04:53:45 02:57:56 109
15 20 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:45:58 09:05:56 00:48:57 05:01:30 02:59:24 (155)
16 8 Roeland Smits NED 08:47:39 09:07:41 00:53:03 04:51:42 03:10:06 (161)
17 22 Joseph Spindler GER 08:48:47 09:08:52 01:03:43 04:53:25 03:03:34 165
18 28 Michael Wetzel GER 08:52:35 09:12:49 00:55:50 04:58:05 03:11:57 186
19 26 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:54:39 09:14:57 00:47:13 04:55:44 03:28:39 191
20 19 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:54:49 09:15:08 00:57:23 05:04:00 03:06:55 (192)
21 24 Thomas Naasz NED 09:07:41 09:28:29 00:54:28 04:58:08 03:17:51 (239)
22 44 Harri Sokk EST 09:08:59 09:29:50 01:01:04 04:48:32 03:18:55 (247)
23 30 Manuel Wyss SUI 09:09:02 09:29:53 00:53:03 05:16:43 03:14:30 247
24 31 Nis Lind DEN 09:26:22 09:47:53 01:00:31 05:05:03 03:24:42 (322)
25 32 Arland Macasieb PHI 09:56:56 10:19:36 01:03:19 05:27:23 03:44:30 416
12 Sylvain Sudrie FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Sebastian Bleisteiner GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
42 Bart Candel NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
43 Michael Rünz GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 54 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:50:34 09:10:43 00:54:37 05:16:13 02:59:07 1
2 60 Rachel Joyce GBR 08:52:21 09:12:34 00:51:01 05:06:09 03:11:41 2
3 51 Caroline Steffen SUI 08:52:40 09:12:54 00:51:48 05:00:17 03:14:29 3
4 52 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 08:53:59 09:14:16 00:57:41 05:01:31 03:08:42 4
5 53 Julia Gajer GER 09:01:01 09:21:34 00:52:50 05:15:24 03:09:17 7
6 58 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:05:22 09:26:05 00:52:54 05:12:12 03:15:39 12
7 55 Anja Beranek GER 09:08:49 09:29:40 00:52:51 05:08:06 03:22:48 20
8 59 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:12:39 09:33:38 00:52:35 05:12:25 03:23:29 28
9 57 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:13:16 09:34:17 00:54:05 05:11:56 03:19:48 32
10 61 Diana Riesler GER 09:19:13 09:40:27 00:59:17 05:09:14 03:25:03 42
11 62 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 09:32:35 09:54:20 01:05:35 05:16:36 03:26:08 76
12 64 Simone Maier GER 09:33:04 09:54:50 01:04:19 05:22:08 03:19:21 78
13 63 Joyce Wolfe IRL 09:38:44 10:00:43 01:01:21 05:32:40 03:22:52 94
14 56 Yvette Grice GBR 09:41:39 10:03:44 00:55:41 05:36:07 03:24:04 96
15 65 Tracy Douglas AUS 09:50:29 10:12:54 01:06:57 05:22:37 03:23:46 (115)
16 66 Ana Casares ESP 09:50:56 10:13:22 01:08:56 05:26:09 03:32:18 (115)
17 68 Ann Ciaverella USA 10:21:14 10:44:50 01:04:17 05:45:52 03:48:49 (152)
69 Sirlet Viilas EST n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
67 Lina-kristin Schink GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Roth Dirk

Dirk Bockel is back to defend his title and has to be considered the pre-race favorite. He is clearly able to focus on key races and deliver good performances. But he faces strong competition from a number of established athletes: Pete Jacobs hasn’t had a great performance since winning Kona 2012, Eneko Llanos who had a great 2013 season and is focusing on Roth and Kona this year, or Timo Bracht who decided to build his 2014 season around Roth. But there are also up-and-coming athletes that would love to build their career by winning this established race: Nils Frommhold who has already won two Ironman races in three starts, James Cunnama who narrowly missed the Kon podium, or Joe Gambles who is just getting started in Ironman racing.

  • Dirk Bockel: 41% (1-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 17% (5-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 12% (7-1)
  • Pete Jacobs: 12% (8-1)
  • James Cunnama: 9% (10-1)
  • Timo Bracht: 5% (18-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 3% (38-1)

Female Race Participants

Roth_Xena

Calling the men’s field „strong“ I have problems coming up with a word to describe the women’s field. Other than Kona, we have not seen Mirinda Carefrae, Racel Joyce, Caroline Steffen and Yvonne Van Vlerken in one race. Add in athletes such as steadily improving Michelle Vesterby (8th in Kona 2013) and Julia Gajer (three consecutive top-3s in Roth with sub-9h finishes) and it gets impossible to predict the race. Joycee is my statistical front runner, mainly because she very rarely has an off-day in a big race.

  • Rachel Joyce: 36% (2-1)
  • Mirinda Carfrae: 27% (3-1)
  • Caroline Steffen: 21% (4-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 12% (8-1)
  • Julia Gajer: 2% (65-1)

Photo Credits: Challenge Roth

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