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Evaluating the New Kona Pro Qualifying System

Now that Kona Pro Qualifying has come to a close for 2019, it’s time to evaluate how the new qualifying system has worked for its first full season. This post compares the old to the new system and looks at some of the implications, giving data and evaluations on a couple of different aspects. I close with a few ideas on how to improve the current system.

Comparing the Outcomes

In order to compare the old points-based “Kona Pro Ranking” to the new slot-based system, I have applied the KPR system to the results of the 2019 racing season and looked at the resulting Kona fields. This section looks at the major differences that these two systems would have produced.

Simulating the 2019 KPR

There are a couple of details that make the comparison a bit tricky. Converting the new system to the old system is relatively straight-forward for Ironman races – the three categories of the KPR (Kona as P-8000, Regionals as P-4000, and regular IMs as P-2000) can be easily identified in the 2019 season. However, the distinction in the new system between races with just the regular two slots and the races with extra unassigned slots gets lost, but of course might have played a role in athletes deciding which race to tackle. Another small problem: For 70.3s, there have been four categories in the old KPR (Worlds as P-3000, Regionals as P-1500, and regular 70.3s as P-750 or P-500). There is no distinction between P-750 and P-500 in the new system, so I have put all of them in the P-500 category. One might do something trickier to determine the equivalents of P-750s (maybe based on which race was a P-750 in the season before), but that is unlikely to make a big difference in the overall rankings.

The following tables show the top-ranked athletes based on this simulation.

Top of the Female KPR

Rank Name Nation Points Races
AQ Ryf, Daniela SUI 17000 3+1 (2000/3000)
AQ Charles-Barclay, Lucy GBR 14400 2+2 (4000/500)
AQ Crowley, Sarah AUS 13400 3+1 (3400/1275)
1 Haug, Anne GER 11310 2+2 (2000/400)
2 True, Sarah USA 8735 2+2 (1600/135)
AQ Carfrae, Mirinda AUS 7920 2+2 (1670/500)
3 Piampiano, Sarah USA 7715 3+1 (2000/625)
4 Sali, Kaisa FIN 7460 2+1
5 Naeth, Angela CAN 6705 3+1 (960/320)
AQ Moench, Skye USA 6380 2+2 (960/500)

Daniela’s total of 17.000 is quite unbelievable and will be very hard to beat. Her total is based on her win in Kona (8.000 points), a win at the North American Regionals in Texas (4.000 points), her win at the 70.3 Champs (3.000 points) and a win at IM Austria (a “paltry” 2.000 points). Wow!

Top of the Male KPR

Rank Name Nation Points Races
AQ Currie, Braden NZL 11965 3+1 (1280/1435)
AQ Weiss, Michael AUT 11280 3+1 (2890/1290)
AQ Lange, Patrick GER 10415 2+2 (515/400)
1 Aernouts, Bart BEL 9830 2+2 (855/500)
2 Russell, Matthew USA 8715 3+1 (1670/320)
3 O’Donnell, Timothy USA 8015 2+2 (1280/400)
4 Hanson, Matt USA 7890 3+1 (2000/400)
AQ Frodeno, Jan GER 7500 1+2 (4000/500)
5 McNamee, David GBR 7395 2+1
6 Van Berkel, Tim AUS 7315 2+2 (2240/400)

Athletes Qualifying Only Under the Slot System

Here’s a table that shows the women who snagged a 2019 slot but would have been outside the Top 35 ranks in the KPR and therefore wouldn’t have qualified for Kona:

Rank Name Nation Points Races
39 Philipp, Laura GER 3000 1+2 (2000/500)
40 Derron, Nina SUI 2940 2+2 (540/400)
42 Thoes, Svenja GER 2800 1+2 (2000/400)
43 Kessler, Meredith USA 2760 3+1 (540/400)
50 Spieldenner, Jennifer USA 2560 1+2 (2000/240)
65 Riveros, Barbara CHI 2100 1+1
67 Huse, Sue CAN 2045 1+1
66 Bleymehl, Daniela GER 2000 1+0
71 Bilham, Emma SUI 2000 1+0
90 Mack, Danielle USA 1355 1+1
113 Kunz, Martina SUI 990 1+2 (720/135)

As usual, the “rank” column only looks at athletes who are “competing” for points-slots, i.e. without automatic qualifiers or those who didn’t race any full-distance Ironman races. Here’s the corresponding table for men outside the Top 50:

Rank Name Nation Points Races
55 Buckingham, Kyle ZAF 2250 2+1
56 Peterson, Kennett USA 2240 1+2 (1600/320)
57 Kraemer, Lukas GER 2225 1+1
59 Tollakson, TJ USA 2180 1+2 (1280/400)
60 Clarke, Will GBR 2155 2+1
61 Viennot, Cyril FRA 2155 2+2 (235/240)
62 Duelsen, Marc GER 2065 2+1
65 Fontana, Daniel ITA 2000 1+0
65 Hogenhaug, Kristian DEN 2000 1+0
84 Schumacher, Stefan GER 1670 1+0
89 Alonso McKernan, Clemente ESP 1600 1+0
115 Silvestrin, Frank BRA 1280 1+0

As expected, athletes who wouldn’t have qualified in a points system are those with “one big result” (winning an IM, e.g. Sue Huse who won IM Taiwan, Jen Spieldenner who won Louisville, or Kristian Hogenhaug who won IM Hamburg) or those who received a slot that rolled down quite far (e.g Martina Kunz, 5th in Hamburg, or Stefan Schuhmacher, 6th in Mar del Plata). This does not imply that these athletes don’t deserve to be in Kona – after all the system is what it is, and they probably would have raced more under a different qualifying system.

Athletes Qualifying Only Under the KPR System

Of course, there are also athletes who won’t be able to race in Kona 2019 but would have had the chance if the KPR system had still been in place. The following tables do not include athletes who didn’t qualify after declining their slots (such as Teresa Adam or Heather Wurtele):

Rank Name Nation Points Races
5 Naeth, Angela CAN 6705 3+1 (960/320)
14 Oliveira, Pamella BRA 5285 1+2 (1600/1500)
27 Duke, Dimity-Lee AUS 3975 2+2 (1280/400)
28 Watkinson, Amelia NZL 3875 1+2 (2455/500)
30 Hansen, Jennie USA 3685 3+1 (720/30)
31 Lundstroem, Asa SWE 3615 3+1 (565/240)

The same table for the male Pros:

Rank Name Nation Points Races
17 Burton, Matt AUS 5015 3+1 (960/320)
25 Wild, Ruedi SUI 3890 2+2 (1600/170)
28 Chevrot, Denis FRA 3605 2+2 (720/500)
29 Long, Sam USA 3620 3+1 (340/400)
32 Harvey, Jarrod AUS 3270 2+0
36 Rodriguez Iglesias, Gustavo ESP 2915 3+1 (540/135)
37 Blanchart Tinto, Miquel ESP 2780 3+0 (540/0)
38 Wojt, Lukasz GER 2740 2+2 (960/320)
39 Kappler, Blake AUS 2695 2+2 (405/100)
46 Dirksmeier, Patrick GER 2455 2+1
47 Kramer, Christian GER 2425 3+1 (230/55)
49 Van Looy, Diego BEL 2400 3+0 (720/0)
50 Huerzeler, Samuel SUI 2390 3+0 (385/0)

These athletes fall into two different categories:

  • Lots of Kona or 70.3 Worlds points from late 2018
    Pamella Oliveira was fourth at 70.3 Worlds in Port Elizabeth, then followed that up with three 70.3 wins (including the South American Regional Championships in Buenos Aires) and a second place at IM Brasil – unfortunately behind Sarah Piampiano who took the single female slot.
  • Lots of good (but no great) results in 2019
    The “poster child” for this category is Matt Burton: A 3rd at Western Australia, a 4th at IM New Zealand and a 4th at IM Cairns were just outside the Kona slots – either by one or two spots. A last-minute effort at IM Sweden ended in a frustrating DNF and no Kona slot.

Athletes Impacted by the New System

Some athletes love to race a lot, regardless of “strategic choices” to qualify. For example, Matt Russell has done four long-distance races between April and July, and even though he secured a slot at IM Frankfurt, he followed that up with Challenge Roth (one week after Frankfurt) and a win at IM Lake Placid (just four weeks after Frankfurt).

But there were also athletes who had to adapt their race selection or race strategies in order to qualify. A few examples:

  • Sarah True probably raced a bit harder in Cairns and Frankfurt knowing she needed a first or second to qualify, compared to a “solid finish” which would have secured her slot in a points system.
  • Angela Naeth would have been safe for a Kona slot after her sixth place in Kona and a second place in Cozumel in November under the old KPR system. Instead, she was chasing a slot even while struggling with injuries, resulting in four unsuccessful attempts over the summer (three DNFs in Boulder, Canada and Tallinn, and a fourth place at IM Copenhagen).
  • Braden Currie missed his Kona slot by one spot at IM New Zealand and thus was forced to also race IM Cairns. As he was racing Challenge Roth, he probably would have preferred to skip Cairns. (He DNF’d in Roth.)

Data on 2019 Racing

Gender distribution of Pro Slots

When the new system was announced, the “unassigned slots” were one of the main aspects discussed and how that would impact the number of male and female Pros in Kona. Here’s a look at the resulting numbers:

Season Total Male Female Female Quota
2016 99 57 42 42,4%
2017 92 54 38 41,3%
2018 92 53 39 42,4%
2019 101 56 44 43,6%

(The total for 2019 is currently higher as it shows the number of qualified athletes. That number will likely be a bit smaller leading up to the race with athletes withdrawing, typically there are at least five athletes who don’t race even though having accepted a slot.)

These numbers show that there hasn’t been a major change in females Pros racing in Kona.

Why are the hopes of more even slots still unfulfilled? Ironman will probably point to the reduced number of females starts: In 2018 34,7% of the Pro starters were females, that number has been reduced to 31,4% in 2019. Also, it seems that the Regional Championships were quite attractive for the females in the past: In 2018 38,3% of the starting Pros at the Regionals were female. (My guess is that because more points were available, it was a chance for female Pros to qualify with just one result.) The share of females in the 2019 Regionals was 32,0%, almost exactly the overall average. Therefore, most of the unassigned slots went to the male Pros (16 out 20), but the share of unassigned slots that went to the men (80%) is significantly higher than their share of Pro athletes (68,6%).

DNF Rate

When the new system was announced, there was some speculation about athletes dropping out who were looking for a slot but found themselves too far back. Here’s just one example of many:

SebiTweet

However, looking at the DNF rates for the last few seasons, the DNF rate has hardly moved at all:

Season Male Pros Female Pros
2017 26,1% 16,1%
2018 24,8% 16,9%
2019 26,3% 16,5%

It is safe to say that the impact of the qualifying system on the DNF quota has been negligible.

Quantity of Racing

The next table lists the average number of races that the Kona participants did in the season before Kona. In order to make the periods comparable, I’ve used the ten months after Kona to the end of August qualifying  (e.g. for the 2018 season it’s races between October 15th, 2017 to August 19th, 2018).

Season IMs 70.3s Challenge
2017 2,02 2,47 0,51
2018 2,16 2,37 0,64
2019 1,72 2,06 0,69

There has been a noticeable decline in the number of races a Kona athlete has done under the new system. (While it’s quite likely that the new system was the major contributor to this decline, it’s probably best to also check next season’s numbers before making a final call.) This is most pronounced for Ironman races – which seems quite logical since when an athlete has qualified after one race, there is no need for additional racing. It also seems that this “slack” did not go to 70.3 racing which has also declined. Racing in events by the Challenge Family has slightly picked up but is still quite minor compared to Ironman-branded races for those athletes who go to Kona.

Suggested Modifications for the Qualifying System

As far as I can see, there are a couple of criticisms leveled against the new system:

  1. Athletes who are “just outside” of a slot get nothing.
    There are two obvious examples for this: Matt Burton who has narrowly missed a Kona slot three times, and Sarah True who started at Zero even after a fourth place in Kona.
  2. The unassigned slots still heavily favor the men, and the last-minute assignment based on starters leads to surprises on race day.
  3. At some races, the slots rolled down quite far.

In order to address these points, here are a few elements for combining the old and the new system:

  • “Win and you’re in” and Automatic Qualifiers
    I think these parts of the system have been working well and shouldn’t be changed. I would also keep the two minimum slots for the Regional Championships. At 25 Pro IMs per season – including 5 Regionals – this results in 30 slots each for the men and women plus the AQs for previous Kona winners, the current Kona podium and 70.3 Champions.
  • Remaining Slots by a Points System
    Instead of the current “floating slots” that get awarded at different races, the remaining slots get decided by a points system similar to the old KPR. The number of slots could be adjusted based on how many total Pros there should be in Kona, with the current field size there would be about 24 additional slots.
  • Assign Points Slots at the Start of the Season
    Instead of deciding on a per-race basis, the points slots get allocated at the start of the season based on the number of starters in the previous season. Based on 24 points slots and the 2018 female quota of 34,7%, it would result in 8 female and 14 male “base” points slots.
  • No Rolldown of “winner’s slots” – these get added to the points slots
    If someone declines their slot or the winner doesn’t need a slot (e.g. when Daniela won IM Austria or when Jan and Sebi finished 1-2 in Frankfurt), the slot won’t roll down to the next finisher but instead get added to the points slots of their gender.
  • Simplified points system
    Every race beyond the auto qualifiers is a P-2000 (2nd in a normal IM = 3rd in a Regional = 2000 points etc.). One could also include 70.3 champs in this points system (as the winner also gets an AQ slot, 2nd place = 2000 points), but I’d leave out other 70.3s. As before, there should be a maximum of three Ironman races that can be included in the total.

Even though this system would require a bit more admin work than the current system, I think it addresses all of the weaknesses of the current system mentioned above. To me, it seems a worthwhile change – what are your thoughts?

2

70.3 World Championships 2019 in Nice, France (Sept 7th and 8th) – Seedings

703 Worlds Nice LogoPrevious Winners

Year (Location) Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 (Clearwater, FL) Craig Alexander (AUS) 03:45:37 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 04:12:58
2007 (Clearwater, FL) Andy Potts (USA) 03:42:33 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 04:07:25
2008 (Clearwater, FL) Terenzo Bozzone (NZL) 03:40:10 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 04:02:48
2009 (Clearwater, FL) Michael Raelert (GER) 03:34:04 Julie Dibens (GBR) 03:59:33
2010 (Clearwater, FL) Michael Raelert (GER) 03:41:19 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 04:06:28
2011 (Henderson, NV) Craig Alexander (AUS) 03:54:48 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 04:20:55
2012 (Henderson, NV) Sebastian Kienle (GER) 03:54:35 Leanda Cave (GBR) 04:28:05
2013 (Henderson, NV) Sebastian Kienle (GER) 03:54:02 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 04:20:07
2014 (Mont Tremblant, Canada) Javier Gomez (ESP) 03:41:30 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 04:09:19
2015 (Zell am See, Austria) Jan Frodeno (GER) 03:51:19 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 04:11:34
2016 (Mooloolaba, Australia) Tim Reed (AUS) 03:44:14 Holly Lawrence (GBR) 04:09:12
2017 (Chattanooga, TN) Javier Gomez (ESP) 03:49:45 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 04:11:59
2018 (Nelson Mandela Bay, South Africa) Jan Frodeno (GER) 03:36:31 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 04:01:13

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:21:54 02:04:28 01:06:33 03:36:31
2 Alistair Brownlee GBR 00:21:58 02:04:29 01:07:39 03:37:42
3 Javier Gomez ESP 00:21:57 02:04:37 01:08:15 03:38:27

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:24:25 02:15:27 01:16:59 04:01:13
2 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 00:23:01 02:17:12 01:20:36 04:04:59
3 Anne Haug GER 00:24:27 02:23:16 01:15:11 04:07:22

Fastest Times

70.3 World Champs have been held in changing locations, so there are no “real” course records.

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 03:34:04 Michael Raelert 2009-11-14
Swim overall 00:21:35 Marko Albert 2009-11-14
Bike overall 01:58:49 Andrew Starykowicz 2009-11-14
Run overall 01:06:33 Jan Frodeno 2018-09-02
Total female 03:59:33 Julie Dibens 2009-11-14
Swim female 00:22:54 Lauren Brandon 2016-09-04
Bike female 02:07:15 Julie Dibens 2009-11-14
Run female 01:15:11 Anne Haug 2018-09-01

Kona slots and Prize Money

70.3 World Championships offers Automatic Qualifier slots for Kona for the winners. It has a total prize purse of 250.000 US$, paying 10 deep. The lists below indicate Kona 2019 qualifiers with “(KQ)”.

Female Race Participants (September 7th)

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Overall
1 1 Daniela Ryf (KQ) SUI 04:09:02 04:07:31 00:24:58 02:18:54 02:47:23 01:21:39 1
2 3 Anne Haug (KQ) GER 04:12:13 04:13:06 00:25:43 02:25:20 02:54:33 01:17:40 2
3 2 Lucy Charles-Barclay (KQ) GBR 04:13:24 04:16:17 00:23:39 02:22:48 02:49:56 01:23:28 3
4 4 Holly Lawrence GBR 04:13:44 04:17:46 00:24:46 02:22:08 02:50:24 01:23:20 4
5 26 Chelsea Sodaro USA 04:17:38 04:23:00 00:26:17 02:28:23 02:58:10 01:19:28 (14)
6 10 Laura Philipp (KQ) GER 04:19:04 04:22:47 00:27:42 02:25:41 02:56:52 01:22:12 11
7 6 Radka Kahlefeldt CZE 04:19:27 04:22:57 00:25:19 02:27:29 02:56:19 01:23:08 13
8 8 Ellie Salthouse AUS 04:20:15 04:24:58 00:25:50 02:26:53 02:56:13 01:24:02 18
9 17 Sarah Crowley (KQ) AUS 04:20:56 04:22:43 00:26:43 02:27:20 02:57:33 01:23:23 9
10 9 Emma Pallant GBR 04:21:07 04:23:17 00:27:07 02:28:42 02:59:18 01:21:49 15
11 7 Imogen Simmonds (KQ) SUI 04:21:08 04:26:04 00:25:30 02:26:12 02:55:11 01:25:57 20
12 42 Paula Findlay CAN 04:21:53 04:24:55 00:25:36 02:27:08 02:56:14 01:25:39 17
13 20 Jackie Hering USA 04:22:49 04:22:44 00:27:00 02:30:08 03:00:37 01:22:12 10
14 5 Pamella Oliveira BRA 04:23:09 04:29:29 00:25:04 02:28:02 02:56:36 01:26:33 38
15 24 Barbara Riveros (KQ) CHI 04:24:27 04:27:21 00:25:58 02:31:48 03:01:17 01:23:10 29
16 61 Amelia Watkinson NZL 04:24:39 04:28:46 00:26:19 02:28:16 02:58:05 01:26:34 36
17 54 Kaisa Sali (KQ) FIN 04:25:04 04:25:06 00:27:33 02:29:42 03:00:45 01:24:19 19
18 22 Carrie Lester (KQ) AUS 04:26:12 04:26:27 00:26:32 02:27:27 02:57:29 01:28:43 24
19 27 Sara Svensk SWE 04:26:13 04:30:35 00:29:22 02:27:48 03:00:39 01:25:34 45
20 57 Felicity Sheedy-Ryan AUS 04:26:21 04:28:05 00:26:26 02:31:39 03:01:36 01:24:45 30
21 16 India Lee GBR 04:26:38 04:29:07 00:25:41 02:31:34 03:00:45 01:25:53 37
22 12 Lauren Goss USA 04:26:39 04:29:53 00:25:17 02:31:29 03:00:16 01:26:23 41
23 14 Haley Chura USA 04:27:14 04:28:30 00:24:26 02:33:16 03:01:12 01:26:02 33
24 23 Lisa Norden SWE 04:27:16 04:32:06 00:25:27 02:26:26 02:55:23 01:31:53 51
25 53 Katrina Rye GBR 04:27:25 04:32:26 00:27:59 02:30:47 03:02:16 01:25:09 (53)
26 30 Lauren Barnett USA 04:28:01 04:32:35 00:28:53 02:29:17 03:01:40 01:26:21 55
27 21 Fenella Langridge GBR 04:29:07 04:33:03 00:25:54 02:33:05 03:02:29 01:26:38 61
28 19 Manon Genet * FRA 04:29:59 04:35:07 00:28:09 02:31:04 03:02:44 01:27:15 73
29 59 Grace Thek AUS 04:30:28 04:33:31 00:26:24 02:34:56 03:04:50 01:25:38 65
30 35 Judith Corachan Vacquero ESP 04:30:41 04:35:08 00:26:56 02:32:54 03:03:20 01:27:21 74
31 60 Alexandra Tondeur * BEL 04:31:35 04:32:57 00:29:03 02:34:15 03:06:48 01:24:47 59
32 37 Laura Dennis AUS 04:32:09 04:37:31 00:26:31 02:33:26 03:03:27 01:28:42 85
33 58 Bianca Steurer (KQ) AUT 04:33:39 04:33:59 00:28:19 02:33:01 03:04:50 01:28:49 69
34 46 Kinsey Laine USA 04:34:02 04:37:47 00:26:18 02:33:23 03:03:11 01:30:51 91
35 39 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 04:35:08 04:36:06 00:29:05 02:33:19 03:05:55 01:29:13 78
36 52 Anne Reischmann GER 04:35:15 04:37:38 00:29:41 02:32:38 03:05:49 01:29:26 87
37 28 Annah Watkinson (KQ) ZAF 04:35:21 04:40:02 00:28:42 02:35:18 03:07:30 01:27:51 108
38 36 Luiza Cravo BRA 04:35:46 04:38:38 00:29:25 02:35:10 03:08:05 01:27:41 95
39 31 Maria Barrera MEX 04:35:48 04:40:55 00:27:40 02:33:48 03:04:58 01:30:50 115
40 38 Nina Derron (KQ) SUI 04:36:21 04:40:00 00:27:31 02:33:35 03:04:36 01:31:45 107
41 56 Jenny Schulz GER 04:36:23 04:40:12 00:30:02 02:36:46 03:10:18 01:26:05 111
42 18 Danielle Dingman USA 04:36:52 04:41:45 00:34:37 02:29:23 03:07:30 01:29:22 122
43 49 Romina Palacio Balena ARG 04:37:03 04:41:28 00:26:38 02:38:21 03:08:29 01:28:34 118
44 34 Jeanne Collonge FRA 04:37:37 04:37:36 00:28:53 02:35:15 03:07:39 01:29:58 86
45 29 Pamela-Ann Bachelder St.Pierre CAN 04:37:46 04:41:20 00:29:45 02:35:54 03:09:09 01:28:37 117
46 55 Mariella Sawyer ZAF 04:38:14 04:46:15 unrated unrated unrated unrated (160)
47 45 Leonie Konczalla GER 04:38:17 04:44:55 00:33:13 02:31:32 03:08:15 01:30:02 146
48 41 Amber Ferreira USA 04:38:34 04:40:05 00:27:59 02:35:23 03:06:52 01:31:42 109
49 48 Rachel Olson USA 04:39:10 04:42:22 00:25:32 02:38:13 03:07:15 01:31:55 126
50 25 Francesca Sanjana GBR 04:39:27 04:46:29 00:30:35 02:32:21 03:06:25 01:33:02 163
51 44 Ewa Komander POL 04:39:53 04:43:17 00:28:52 02:33:53 03:06:16 01:33:37 131
52 50 Maddy Pesch USA 04:41:32 04:45:11 00:28:04 02:34:26 03:06:00 01:35:32 151
53 63 Kyra Wiens USA 04:42:40 04:46:54 00:28:30 02:37:23 03:09:22 01:33:18 166
54 47 Xenia Luxem BEL 04:44:56 04:50:07 00:32:59 02:34:42 03:11:11 01:33:45 (180)
55 64 Laura Wood NZL 04:48:46 04:57:23 00:26:43 02:41:10 03:11:23 01:37:23 221
56 33 Gisele Bertucci BRA 04:49:29 04:53:57 00:27:46 02:39:19 03:10:36 01:38:53 208
57 43 Alexandra Ganzon PHI 05:14:44 05:21:27 00:31:56 02:59:45 03:35:11 01:39:33 260

Male Race Participants (September 8th)

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Overall
1 2 Alistair Brownlee (KQ) GBR 03:44:34 03:50:37 00:22:39 02:07:09 02:33:18 01:11:16 3
2 1 Javier Gomez ESP 03:46:35 03:50:41 00:22:23 02:09:47 02:35:40 01:10:55 4
3 11 Kristian Blummenfelt NOR 03:47:24 03:51:40 00:23:52 02:09:18 02:36:39 01:10:45 (6)
4 5 Ben Kanute USA 03:48:32 03:54:02 00:22:26 02:06:50 02:32:46 01:15:46 10
5 47 Gustav Iden NOR 03:48:38 03:53:54 00:24:29 02:10:21 02:38:21 01:10:17 (9)
6 3 Sebastian Kienle (KQ) GER 03:49:55 03:50:53 00:25:17 02:06:44 02:35:30 01:14:25 5
7 7 Sam Appleton AUS 03:50:51 03:55:16 00:23:04 02:07:43 02:34:17 01:16:34 13
8 14 Tim Don GBR 03:51:03 03:52:49 00:23:25 02:09:41 02:36:37 01:14:26 8
9 9 Rodolphe Von Berg USA 03:52:39 03:55:34 00:23:11 02:10:20 02:37:00 01:15:39 14
10 6 Pieter Heemeryck BEL 03:52:43 03:57:33 00:23:14 02:09:26 02:36:11 01:16:32 31
11 27 Maurice Clavel (KQ) GER 03:52:48 03:54:18 00:23:25 02:09:26 02:36:21 01:16:27 11
12 8 Adam Bowden GBR 03:53:25 03:56:47 00:22:49 02:14:11 02:40:30 01:12:55 23
13 18 Florian Angert GER 03:54:20 03:57:10 00:23:01 02:10:45 02:37:16 01:17:04 27
14 28 Andreas Dreitz (KQ) GER 03:54:22 03:56:33 00:24:41 02:08:28 02:36:40 01:17:42 21
15 20 Andi Boecherer (KQ) GER 03:54:59 03:55:52 00:23:44 02:10:21 02:37:35 01:17:24 17
16 38 Josh Amberger (KQ) AUS 03:54:59 03:56:19 00:22:47 02:10:28 02:36:45 01:18:14 19
17 4 Patrick Lange (KQ) GER 03:55:16 03:51:58 00:23:34 02:14:29 02:41:34 01:13:42 6
18 25 Bart Aernouts (KQ) BEL 03:55:50 03:57:31 00:26:30 02:10:48 02:40:48 01:15:02 30
19 17 Igor Amorelli BRA 03:55:53 03:56:32 00:23:29 02:09:57 02:36:57 01:18:56 20
20 15 Ruedi Wild SUI 03:56:01 03:58:11 00:23:31 02:13:04 02:40:05 01:15:56 37
21 43 Pablo Dapena Gonzalez ESP 03:56:08 03:58:31 00:22:45 02:14:39 02:40:54 01:15:14 40
22 32 Jackson Laundry CAN 03:56:44 03:59:20 00:24:50 02:11:04 02:39:24 01:17:20 47
23 16 Andrew Starykowicz (KQ) USA 03:56:47 03:56:47 00:24:18 02:06:29 02:34:17 01:22:30 23
24 26 Daniel Baekkegard (KQ) DEN 03:57:38 04:00:50 00:22:47 02:12:45 02:39:02 01:18:36 53
25 36 Mike Phillips (KQ) NZL 03:57:47 03:57:51 00:23:43 02:13:13 02:40:25 01:17:22 32
26 12 Frederik Van Lierde (KQ) BEL 03:58:20 03:57:55 00:24:12 02:11:19 02:39:01 01:19:19 34
27 62 Markus Rolli GER 03:58:50 04:02:52 00:23:41 02:12:51 02:40:01 01:18:49 73
28 21 Kevin Collington USA 03:59:00 04:02:44 00:23:38 02:13:39 02:40:47 01:18:13 71
29 30 George Goodwin GBR 03:59:05 04:02:13 00:24:39 02:16:41 02:44:51 01:14:14 65
30 22 Eric Lagerstrom USA 03:59:12 04:01:29 00:23:08 02:13:47 02:40:24 01:18:48 58
31 19 Santiago Ascenco BRA 03:59:44 04:02:31 00:25:28 02:13:00 02:41:57 01:17:47 68
32 23 Sam Long USA 03:59:47 04:02:46 00:26:57 02:10:41 02:41:08 01:18:39 72
33 39 Filipe Azevedo POR 03:59:49 04:03:30 00:23:34 02:17:08 02:44:13 01:15:36 79
34 66 Cyril Viennot (KQ) FRA 04:00:07 03:59:50 00:24:49 02:13:48 02:42:08 01:17:59 50
35 37 Bradley Weiss ZAF 04:00:21 04:02:58 00:23:48 02:18:07 02:45:25 01:14:56 76
36 40 Mark Bowstead NZL 04:00:22 04:06:24 00:23:52 02:12:32 02:39:54 01:20:28 129
37 24 Elliot Smales GBR 04:00:53 04:04:25 00:23:21 02:17:05 02:43:56 01:16:57 88
38 44 Thomas Davis GBR 04:01:17 04:05:01 00:22:55 02:16:17 02:42:42 01:18:35 101
39 67 Iuri Josino Vinuto BRA 04:01:35 04:04:52 00:23:36 02:18:33 02:45:39 01:15:56 100
40 41 Matt Burton AUS 04:02:16 04:06:22 00:26:06 02:11:24 02:41:00 01:21:16 127
41 63 Francisco Serrano MEX 04:02:19 04:06:15 00:25:11 02:13:36 02:42:17 01:20:02 123
42 48 Yvan Jarrige FRA 04:03:03 04:09:06 00:23:34 02:16:04 02:43:07 01:19:56 173
43 49 Ivan Kalashnikov RUS 04:03:35 04:06:19 00:23:38 02:17:13 02:44:21 01:19:14 126
44 53 Jack Moody NZL 04:03:39 04:06:18 00:26:17 02:18:24 02:48:10 01:15:29 125
45 59 Tim Rea AUS 04:03:56 04:07:56 00:24:38 02:14:25 02:42:33 01:21:23 159
46 52 David Mainwaring AUS 04:04:03 04:14:30 00:24:31 02:15:47 02:43:48 01:20:15 270
47 46 Romain Guillaume * FRA 04:04:08 04:04:26 00:23:43 02:15:55 02:43:09 01:20:59 90
48 60 Horst Reichel GER 04:04:13 04:05:49 00:24:14 02:18:13 02:45:57 01:18:16 115
49 65 Milosz Sowinski POL 04:05:40 04:08:04 00:24:28 02:16:30 02:44:28 01:21:12 160
50 45 Robbie Deckard USA 04:05:44 04:10:56 00:25:30 02:16:59 02:45:59 01:19:45 205
51 56 Sam Pictor * GBR 04:06:11 04:11:28 00:26:48 02:18:17 02:48:35 01:17:36 216
52 64 Dominik Sowieja GER 04:06:24 04:08:18 00:26:34 02:21:28 02:51:33 01:14:51 164
53 42 Alan Carrillo Avila MEX 04:06:59 04:09:43 00:26:08 02:15:03 02:44:41 01:22:18 189
54 50 Mitchell Kibby AUS 04:07:03 04:12:27 00:24:33 02:19:21 02:47:25 01:19:38 240
55 34 Paulo Roberto Maciel da Silva BRA 04:08:21 04:09:25 00:23:50 02:20:59 02:48:19 01:20:02 181
56 51 Andre Lopes BRA 04:08:44 04:12:13 00:25:23 02:17:07 02:46:00 01:22:44 231
57 58 Alexander Polizzi AUS 04:09:11 04:12:17 00:23:30 02:18:39 02:45:40 01:23:31 233
58 55 Joaquin Pereda Charles MEX 04:12:06 04:15:18 00:23:54 02:22:48 02:50:12 01:21:54 288
59 57 Jason Pohl CAN 04:16:37 04:22:29 00:28:07 02:23:37 02:55:13 01:21:24 381
60 54 Banjo Norte PHI 04:34:48 04:40:19 00:26:39 02:37:13 03:07:22 01:27:26 473

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Alistair Brownlee: 44% (1-1)
  • Javier Gomez: 24% (3-1)
  • Ben Kanute: 10% (9-1)
  • Kristian Blummenfelt: 8% (12-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle: 7% (14-1)
  • Pieter Heemeryck: 2% (43-1)
  • Sam Appleton: 2% (44-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Daniela Ryf: 51% (1-1)
  • Lucy Charles-Barclay: 20% (4-1)
  • Holly Lawrence: 17% (5-1)
  • Anne Haug: 6% (15-1)
  • Ellie Salthouse: 2% (50-1)
  • Sarah Crowley: 2% (59-1)
1

Ironman Wisconsin 2019 (Sept 8th) – Seedings

IMWisconsinPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Andriy Yastrebov (UKR) 09:01:34 Ute Mueckel (GER) 10:11:22
2006 Markus Forster (GER) 09:07:24 Katja Schumacher (GER) 10:01:22
2007 Maik Twelsiek (GER) 08:52:49 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:37:03
2008 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:43:29 Hillary Biscay (USA) 09:47:25
2009 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:45:19 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:43:59
2010 Joe Gambles (AUS) 08:38:32 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:27:26
2011 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:45:18 Jessica Jacobs (USA) 09:41:03
2012 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:32:51 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 09:34:35
2013 Maik Twelsiek (GER) 08:40:15 Jackie Hering (USA) 09:47:07
2014 Daniel Bretscher (USA) 08:31:20 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:30:08
2016     Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 09:33:47
2017 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:17:19    
2018     Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:12:39

Last Race’s TOP 3

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Linsey Corbin USA 01:01:16 04:59:01 03:04:12 09:12:39
2 Jennie Hansen USA 01:07:05 05:22:40 03:08:43 09:47:06
3 Katie Thomas USA 00:57:57 05:14:21 03:29:20 09:50:12

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:49:44 04:31:47 02:49:00 08:17:19
2 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:36 04:33:31 02:58:45 08:28:17
3 Patrick Mckeon USA 00:55:04 04:43:57 02:43:09 08:28:36

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:17:19 Luke McKenzie 2017-09-10
Swim overall 00:44:56 John Flanagan 2010-09-12
Bike overall 04:24:08 Andrew Starykowicz 2017-09-10
Run overall 02:43:09 Patrick Mckeon 2017-09-10
Total female 09:12:39 Linsey Corbin 2018-09-09
Swim female 00:48:41 Linda Gallo 2005-09-11
Bike female 04:59:01 Linsey Corbin 2018-09-09
Run female 02:59:33 Elizabeth Lyles 2012-09-09

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wisconsin is – 03:22.

Race Adjustments for IM Wisconsin

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -16:56 00:28 -07:50 -09:34 37 -16:56 00:28 -07:50 -09:34
2006 -13:53 -02:09 -10:47 -00:57 29 -15:25 -00:51 -09:20 -05:14
2007 04:12 -02:32 01:25 05:19 35 -08:52 -01:25 -05:45 -01:43
2008 05:45 00:26 01:27 03:52 29 -05:13 -00:57 -03:57 -00:19
2009 00:16 -00:41 02:29 -01:32 31 of 32 -04:07 -00:54 -02:40 -00:34
2010 03:45 -00:20 02:13 01:53 29 of 30 -02:48 -00:49 -01:51 -00:09
2011 -06:06 -01:29 -01:31 -03:07 24 -03:16 -00:54 -01:48 -00:34
2012 -09:16 -01:56 -03:43 -03:38 24 -04:01 -01:02 -02:03 -00:57
2013 -02:04 -02:55 -00:27 01:17 27 of 34 -03:48 -01:14 -01:52 -00:42
2014 -00:15 -00:27 00:40 -00:28 26 of 27 -03:27 -01:10 -01:37 -00:41
2016 -05:14 -04:17 00:06 -01:03 12 -03:37 -01:27 -01:28 -00:43
2017 00:10 -01:04 -04:11 05:25 14 of 20 -03:18 -01:25 -01:41 -00:13
2018 -04:07 -03:12 -03:16 02:21 10 of 11 -03:22 -01:33 -01:48 -00:01

Kona slots and Prize Money

IM Wisconsin has 1m+1f Pro Kona slots. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$, paying 6 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 0% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 25 Emilio Aguayo Munoz ESP 08:28:57 08:38:32 00:50:17 04:34:14 05:29:30 02:59:27 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (71)
2 37 Markus Thomschke GER 08:40:58 08:37:31 00:53:00 04:41:38 05:39:38 03:01:20 55% +17% -29% (21) (70)
3 31 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:47:22 09:04:58 00:54:01 04:50:44 05:49:45 02:57:37 17% +9% -74% (32) (162)
4 26 Reece Barclay * GBR 08:51:16 08:56:08 00:49:28 04:54:41 05:49:08 03:02:08 56% +0% -44% (2) (133)
5 30 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:53:39 08:59:54 00:52:06 04:41:51 05:38:57 03:14:42 32% +31% -37% (19) 146
6 36 Kevin Portmann FRA 08:55:10 09:05:14 00:56:44 04:46:19 05:48:03 03:07:07 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (164)
7 32 Adam Feigh USA 08:56:41 09:06:32 00:55:42 04:48:56 05:49:38 03:07:03 37% +26% -37% (4) 171
8 29 Carson Christen USA 09:03:09 09:10:10 00:53:38 04:55:46 05:54:24 03:08:45 100% +0% -0% (2) (179)
9 28 Patrick Brady USA 09:07:10 09:16:44 01:01:15 04:50:55 05:57:10 03:10:00 13% +37% -49% (5) 201
10 27 Blake Becker USA 09:11:12 09:19:47 00:58:47 04:56:04 05:59:50 03:11:22 1% +39% -61% (24) 207
11 34 Colin Laughery USA 09:13:26 09:16:05 00:58:29 04:59:17 06:02:46 03:10:40 79% +11% -10% (13) 199
12 35 James Lubinski USA 09:15:47 09:18:42 01:05:06 04:58:29 06:08:36 03:07:11 68% +21% -12% (23) 206
13 38 Andrew Yoder USA 09:39:14 09:50:08 00:54:31 04:56:09 05:55:40 03:43:34 59% +0% -41% (3) (247)
  33 Andrew Keily USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 5% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 1 Linsey Corbin USA 09:15:01 09:14:08 00:59:25 05:04:21 06:08:46 03:06:15 97% +3% -0% (28) 14
2 3 Svenja Thoes GER 09:16:28 09:26:56 00:58:35 05:06:29 06:10:04 03:06:24 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (38)
3 2 Kelsey Withrow  USA 09:42:36 09:49:38 00:55:37 05:21:40 06:22:18 03:20:18 78% +22% -0% (5) 65
4 5 Lenny Ramsey NED 09:46:22 09:45:51 01:08:10 05:25:45 06:38:54 03:07:28 57% +43% -0% (3) 60
5 14 Bruna Mahn BRA 09:47:11 09:51:24 00:59:13 05:26:53 06:31:06 03:16:05 62% +38% -0% (7) 69
6 12 Renee Kiley AUS 09:48:46 10:02:11 00:58:44 05:14:44 06:18:28 03:30:18 30% +26% -44% (5) 78
7 19 Laurel Wassner USA 09:48:54 09:49:59 00:56:51 05:23:44 06:25:35 03:23:19 71% +7% -22% (14) 67
8 15 Katie Morales USA 09:49:28 09:55:50 00:56:32 05:15:48 06:17:20 03:32:08 79% +21% -0% (5) 74
9 16 Robin Pomeroy USA 09:59:45 10:12:34 00:56:39 05:34:55 06:36:34 03:23:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (93)
10 18 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:00:39 10:03:23 01:05:14 05:24:33 06:34:46 03:25:53 54% +23% -24% (16) 80
11 8 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:05:03 10:11:02 01:02:17 05:32:02 06:39:18 03:25:45 83% +13% -5% (22) 88
12 4 Melanie McQuaid * CAN 10:08:24 10:15:46 00:58:20 05:25:48 06:29:08 03:39:16 47% +0% -53% (6) 94
13 20 Amanda Wendorff USA 10:13:27 10:19:23 01:01:34 05:16:58 06:23:32 03:49:55 40% +0% -60% (4) (101)
14 7 Holly Benner USA 10:14:32 10:26:06 00:56:33 05:30:49 06:32:22 03:42:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (107)
15 6 Anne Basso FRA 10:16:03 10:15:55 00:58:42 05:40:46 06:44:27 03:31:36 42% +2% -56% (23) 95
16 17 Jessica Smith USA 10:18:05 10:24:57 00:57:17 05:33:08 06:35:26 03:42:39 54% +0% -46% (9) (106)
17 13 Nicole Luse USA 10:20:02 10:19:48 01:10:05 05:40:43 06:55:48 03:24:14 72% +28% -0% (5) 102
18 10 Ginger Howell USA 10:28:02 10:45:09 01:03:13 05:43:09 06:51:23 03:36:39 48% +52% -0% (2) (115)
19 11 Sarah Karpinski USA 10:29:09 10:40:59 01:15:37 05:42:18 07:02:55 03:26:14 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (113)
  9 Michelle Heneghan IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Markus Thomschke: 46% (1-1)
  • Emilio Aguayo Munoz: 19% (4-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 9% (10-1)
  • Karl-Johan Danielsson: 9% (10-1)
  • Reece Barclay: 6% (17-1)
  • Adam Feigh: 4% (24-1)
  • Kevin Portmann: 2% (54-1)
  • Patrick Brady: 2% (60-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Linsey Corbin: 84% (1-1)
  • Svenja Thoes: 7% (13-1)
  • Lenny Ramsey: 3% (38-1)
  • Kelsey Withrow: 3% (39-1)
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Ironman Mont Tremblant 2019 – Analyzing Results

IMMtTCourse Conditions

This year’s conditions were slightly faster than normal for Mont Tremblant, but not more than maybe two or three minutes (adjustment of 5:25 compared to a course rating of 3:21).

Both winners, Carrie Lester and Cody Beals, posted new course records, breaking sub-9 and sub-8 for the first time in Mont Tremblant. Carrie also posted a new bike course record (was 4:53 by Mary-Beth Ellis, now 4:48:21), while Cody improved his own run course record (was 2:45 by Chris Leiferman, now 2:42:28). Cody was under his old bike course record of 4:24:28 from last year, but Lionel Sanders was even quicker with a 4:15:13.

Kona Qualifying

Both winners Carrie Lester and Cody Beals had secured their Kona slots in earlier races. Therefore the slots went to the second-place finishers, Sarah True and Lionel Sanders.

The full list of Kona Pro qualifiers can be found here.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Cody Beals CAN 00:50:36 04:20:52 02:42:28 07:58:34 -05:03 US$ 12,000
2 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:51:48 04:15:12 02:53:58 08:05:38 -07:30 US$ 6,000
3 Nathan Killam CAN 00:50:40 04:37:17 02:56:33 08:29:15 -37:46 US$ 4,000
4 Cedric Boily CAN 00:50:51 04:38:18 03:00:32 08:34:45 n/a US$ 2,750
5 Scott Defilippis USA 00:53:35 04:42:50 02:56:26 08:38:22 -14:56 US$ 2,000
6 Christian Brader GER 00:54:20 04:49:45 03:00:47 08:49:59 04:30 US$ 1,500
7 Eliot Scymanski USA 00:50:43 04:51:21 03:11:50 08:59:56 n/a US$ 1,000
8 Antoine Jolicoeur Desroches CAN 00:48:16 04:33:03 03:35:56 09:01:17 40:19 US$ 750
9 Andrew Yoder USA 00:50:54 04:44:21 03:38:34 09:27:05 n/a  
10 David Lacombe CAN 00:57:06 04:51:16 03:34:39 09:28:22 n/a  
11 Chad Holderbaum USA 00:56:57 04:52:57 03:49:00 09:44:30 47:02  
12 Raymond Botelho USA 00:54:49 05:04:43 03:44:27 09:49:40 31:07  
13 Wouter Monchy BEL 00:50:37 04:58:04 04:01:14 09:54:37 56:45  
14 Anthony Adam FRA 00:57:05 05:13:27 04:23:04 10:38:48 n/a  
  Sacha Cavelier CAN 00:59:50 05:10:30   DNF    
  Justin Daerr USA 00:50:47     DNF    
  Antony Costes FRA 00:51:03     DNF    
  Lee Roy CAN 01:06:28     DNF    

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Carrie Lester AUS 00:51:23 04:48:20 03:03:51 08:48:26 -18:56 US$ 12,000
2 Sarah True USA 00:50:11 05:04:16 03:04:51 09:04:31 12:34 US$ 6,000
3 Jodie Robertson USA 00:59:40 04:59:34 03:11:28 09:16:16 -08:09 US$ 4,000
4 Pamela-Ann Bachelder St.Pierre CAN 01:01:19 05:15:03 03:08:41 09:30:13 n/a US$ 2,750
5 Melanie Burke NZL 01:07:42 04:58:05 03:22:31 09:34:31 02:51 US$ 2,000
6 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:17 05:21:26 03:26:43 09:43:42 30:40 US$ 1,500
7 Kyra Wiens USA 00:57:16 05:21:55 03:31:58 09:56:24 -18:21 US$ 1,000
8 Robyn Hardage CAN 01:01:31 05:21:06 03:27:55 09:57:03 -03:29 US$ 750
9 Katy Cargiulo USA 01:01:25 05:34:38 03:18:21 10:01:14 -37:52  
10 Ginger Howell USA 00:59:37 05:29:38 03:31:12 10:06:53 -40:00  
11 Sheila Treleaven CAN 00:54:00 05:45:35 03:41:48 10:30:45 n/a  
  Jennie Hansen USA 01:01:31 05:12:41   DNF    
  Heather Low CAN 01:04:17 05:24:52   DNF    
  Amy Vantassel USA 01:01:29 05:55:57   DNF    
  Kayla Kobelin USA 01:01:20     DNF    
  Jennifer Lentzke CAN 01:07:52     DNF    
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