Ironman Boulder 2014 (August 3rd) – Predictions

July 31, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

This is the first race on this course – therefore there are no previous results to build a course rating and predicted times from.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Boulder has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 12 Kyle Buckingham ZAF n/a 08:36:08 00:49:17 04:34:21 02:59:00 (31)
2 1 Richie Cunningham AUS n/a 08:40:07 00:47:21 04:46:52 02:58:30 (44)
3 2 Justin Daerr USA n/a 08:47:06 00:53:42 04:46:20 03:01:44 64
4 8 Joe Umphenour USA n/a 08:54:36 00:47:32 04:51:11 03:09:16 99
5 4 Scott Defilippis USA n/a 09:06:16 00:55:35 05:00:30 03:02:54 161
6 7 Jared Milam USA n/a 09:12:48 00:53:41 05:04:05 03:08:13 190
7 13 Fabio Carvalho BRA n/a 09:17:49 00:52:47 05:22:33 03:12:39 (200)
8 10 Dantley Young USA n/a 10:12:39 01:02:44 05:23:43 03:38:34 (396)
  5 Mark Hillers USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  6 Karol Kristov EST n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  11 Steven Zawaski USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 17 Rebekah Keat AUS n/a 09:26:05 00:52:54 05:12:12 03:15:39 12
2 19 Carrie Lester AUS n/a 09:38:16 00:55:24 05:12:46 03:23:47 39
3 18 Uli Bromme USA n/a 09:53:09 01:02:46 05:20:46 03:22:43 76
4 20 Christine Hammond USA n/a 09:59:33 00:54:44 05:25:54 03:34:00 91
5 25 Olesya Prystayko UKR n/a 10:11:30 01:00:47 05:28:06 03:36:21 107
6 22 Danielle Kehoe USA n/a 10:14:27 01:03:00 05:28:34 03:24:46 (118)
7 24 Alyssa Godesky USA n/a 10:36:26 01:04:17 05:34:23 03:40:26 (145)
8 23 Morgan Chaffin USA n/a 11:48:57 00:59:28 05:40:17 04:43:51 (162)
  21 Laura Bennett USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

After winning in Lake Placid, it’s very unlikely that we’ll see Kyle Buckingham on the start line. This makes Justin Daerr the clear favorite:

  • Justin Daerr: 45% (1-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 20% (4-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 13% (7-1)
  • Richie Cunningham: 9% (10-1)
  • Joe Umphenour: 8% (12-1)
  • Jared Milam: 4% (26-1)

Female Race Participants

Rebekah Keat is the strongest and most experienced athlete on the start list:

  • Rebekah Keat: 66% (1-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 20% (4-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 10% (9-1)

Ironman Canada (Whistler) 2014 – Analyzing Results

July 31, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Race Conditions

Conditions in Whistler were slightly faster than last year, an adjustment of 7:00 leads to a new course rating of 5:07. (Statistically it was a bit weird: Each leg was slower than last year, but overall it was faster. This is caused by they way I discard outliers, it means that when athletes had a good leg, they were way faster than expected, and most other athletes were just slightly slower.)

Male Race Results

Marino won the race in convincing fashion, being close to the front on the swim, then pulling away on the bike and securing his Kona spot on the run. For a long time, Paul Ambrose held on to the 2nd place he would have needed to qualify, then fell back to fourth and eventually battled back into third. Second place was taken by Jeff Symonds with a great 2:40 run, while last year’s winner Trevor Wurtele had great start of the day but struggled to hold on to his great position on the run fading to fourth.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:50:56 04:31:34 02:51:17 08:16:10 -02:19
2 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:50:59 04:51:15 02:40:34 08:25:22 -11:35
3 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:50:58 04:41:05 02:58:16 08:33:10 -06:48
4 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:51:04 04:41:38 03:07:27 08:42:59 -07:36
5 Andrew Drobeck USA 01:06:20 04:49:19 02:51:51 08:50:32 n/a
6 Matt Lieto USA 00:51:06 04:54:23 03:03:43 08:53:09 -16:13
7 Matthew Russell USA 00:59:08 04:52:31 03:09:51 09:05:45 20:06
8 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 00:56:51 05:06:06 03:07:05 09:13:14 -08:42
  Devon Palmer USA 00:53:57     DNF  
  Anthony Toth CAN 00:58:53 05:20:05   DNF  

Female Race Results

The women’s race was quite a nail biter: The Top 4 came off the bike within two minutes. Bree Wee was statistically the worst runner of the front pack, but needed a win to get enough points for Kona. With her known fightings spirit, she gave it everything and was elated to take the win. Karen Thibodeau and Mackenzie Madison finished on the podium, leaving only fourth place to Jackie Arendt.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Bree Wee USA 00:56:15 05:29:07 03:17:41 09:46:58 07:50
2 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:55:59 05:29:19 03:22:52 09:51:35 -10:47
3 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:58:53 05:25:05 03:24:45 09:52:46 11:10
4 Jackie Arendt USA 00:56:19 05:31:26 03:27:46 09:59:06 15:04
5 Anna Cleaver NZL 00:53:09 05:43:39 03:24:57 10:05:23 n/a
6 Christine Fletcher CAN 00:58:29 05:37:11 03:35:10 10:14:21 04:50
7 Jenni Plane USA 01:02:49 06:40:30 04:53:21 12:43:17 00:57

Ironman Lake Placid 2014 – Analyzing Results

July 30, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Race Conditions

As usual, Lake Placid was a pretty slow course: This year the adjustment was -0:04, leading to a new course rating of -2:22. The swim and bike were especially slow (probably because of the rainy weather), it was partly compensated by a slightly faster than normal run. 

Male Race Results

Kyle Buckingham took control of the race early on the bike and never let up. Even if he was slightly slower than his earlier results would have indicated, he won in a very convincing fashion and secured a Kona spot. Behind him, Balasz Csoke took second with a good performance across the board, and Jonathan Shearon finished third.

Raymond Botelho took the men’s 7th and „winning“ the prize for #IMLP7th. 

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:52:04 04:43:47 02:57:49 08:38:43 05:52
2 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:28 04:50:33 03:07:08 08:51:26 -12:36
3 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:55:09 04:55:07 03:03:23 08:59:22 -01:30
4 Ryan Cain CAN 00:58:07 04:59:43 03:01:42 09:05:19 -08:19
5 Vinny Johnson USA 00:56:02 04:59:30 03:07:08 09:09:56 -19:30
6 Nathan Buttrick USA 01:04:22 05:00:05 03:04:01 09:14:07 -09:46
7 Raymond Botelho USA 00:55:07 05:00:49 03:19:32 09:23:21 -12:21
8 Patrick Wheeler USA 00:58:29 05:04:48 03:13:31 09:24:19 06:10
9 Joshua Rix AUS 00:52:27 05:00:13 03:34:25 09:32:47 32:21
10 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:57:27 05:14:01 03:19:02 09:36:00 01:35
11 James Chesson USA 00:59:49 05:16:57 03:19:45 09:41:47 36:04
12 Jim Lubinski USA 01:05:10 05:22:07 03:10:33 09:43:39 -03:47
13 Tomas Martinek CZE 00:48:24 05:26:12 03:24:58 09:45:26 n/a
14 Peter Kotland USA 01:02:05 05:23:34 03:58:58 10:33:11 34:28
  Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 01:02:47 04:58:22   DNF  
  Andrew Fast USA 01:01:02 05:04:37   DNF  
  AJ Baucco USA 00:54:10 05:17:14   DNF  
  Pedro Gomes POR 00:52:01     DNF  

Female Race Results

Amber Ferreira swam faster than all other finishers, then followed that up with strong bike and run performances and took the win. Kim Schwabenbauer and Lisa Roberts took spots on the podium, also securing their Kona slots. 

The winner of the women’s #IMLP7th was Rachel Jastrebsky.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Amber Ferreira USA 00:57:13 05:19:33 03:08:35 09:31:28 -23:20
2 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:03:46 05:18:31 03:10:04 09:38:14 00:08
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:07:26 05:19:18 03:07:31 09:40:04 01:38
4 Kristin Lemos USA 01:03:41 05:22:13 03:18:30 09:50:26 n/a
5 Jessica Meyers USA 01:02:53 05:39:38 03:18:49 10:06:53 09:37
6 Kathryn Thomas USA 00:55:25 05:31:11 03:46:38 10:19:46 n/a
7 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 01:06:10 05:41:30 03:42:09 10:35:58 16:53
8 Leslie Lamacchia USA 01:08:24 05:54:02 03:35:48 10:44:11 -02:35
9 Kristyn Tobey BMU 01:08:28 05:53:14 03:42:38 10:50:35 13:52
10 Amanda Kourtz USA 01:17:31 06:07:01 04:06:32 11:38:30 27:13
  Darbi Roberts USA 00:54:11 05:33:36   DNF  

Ironman Switzerland 2014 – Analyzing Results

July 29, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Race Conditions

This year’s race was a bit slower than normal in Switzerland. A typically slow swim (adjustment of -3:47) was followed by pretty average bike and runs, leading to an adjustment of 2:08 and a new course rating of 7:22.  

Male Race Results

Jan Van Berkel was leading his rome race for the longest time, but really struggled towards the end of the run and faded to 5th.. Boris Stein was the fastest, winning his first Ironman. He was followed by David Plese, Marek Jaskolka, and Filip Ospaly – all of which also secured a Kona slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Boris Stein GER 00:58:49 04:35:55 02:53:49 08:33:02 -29:13
2 David Plese SLO 00:56:44 04:37:35 02:54:51 08:34:13 -05:47
3 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:51:23 04:51:09 02:53:46 08:40:40 -09:12
4 Filip Ospaly CZE 00:51:12 04:45:39 03:01:17 08:43:23 02:40
5 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:51:15 04:39:00 03:12:04 08:46:33 -02:28
6 Darby Thomas FIN 01:01:02 04:51:45 02:58:55 08:56:36 06:10
7 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 00:54:40 04:51:55 03:08:30 08:59:28 -04:29
8 Reto Stutz SUI 01:00:56 04:35:08 03:19:53 09:02:00 -07:35
9 Tomas Mika CZE 01:00:34 04:56:05 03:02:04 09:03:54 -26:39
10 Sergio Marques POR 01:00:50 04:57:54 03:04:37 09:08:13 07:07
11 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:56:31 05:28:55 02:52:20 09:22:37 n/a
12 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:04:21 05:07:32 03:15:17 09:33:17 31:29
13 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 01:06:52 05:11:52 03:32:29 09:57:52 -03:26
14 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:14:58 05:40:20 04:13:30 11:17:47 -42:30
15 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:51:27 05:37:47 04:56:41 11:42:39 3:01:53
  Bertrand Billard FRA 00:51:17 04:36:45   DNF  
  Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:51:10 04:43:19   DNF  
  Alejandro Santamaria ESP 01:00:42 04:54:32   DNF  
  Daniel Mueller GER 00:56:55 05:08:54   DNF  
  Eduardo Crooke Gonzalez ESP 00:56:47 05:27:07   DNF  
  Mathias Hecht SUI 00:51:20     DNF  
  Michael Goehner GER 00:56:46     DNF  
  Vincent Riess AUT 00:58:49     DNF  

Female Race Results

Daniela Ryf had an amazing weekend – on Saturday she won the 5150 in Zurich, on Sunday she started, finished and won her first Ironman. (Even winning wasn’t quit enough for a Kona slot, so she’ll be spared the tough decision of whether to accept a slot.) She was followed by Natascha Badmann, Sonja Tajsich and Kristin Möller who were all backing up just three weeks after IM Germany. Natascha and Kristin made sure to have enough Kona points to qualify.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:56:41 05:00:18 03:11:03 09:13:30 n/a
2 Natascha Badmann SUI 01:05:10 04:55:00 03:23:01 09:28:37 02:53
3 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:05:14 04:59:49 03:19:13 09:29:15 00:11
4 Kristin Moeller GER 01:06:35 05:17:31 03:00:27 09:30:15 -03:05
5 Erika Csomor HUN 01:05:12 05:04:55 03:16:51 09:32:14 02:59
6 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:51:23 05:16:35 03:22:00 09:35:24 02:58
7 Carolin Lehrieder GER 01:01:09 05:24:23 03:15:18 09:45:05 n/a
8 Evi Neuscheler GER 01:05:05 05:09:27 03:24:47 09:45:30 -35:02
9 Regula Rohrbach SUI 01:00:30 05:09:37 03:38:27 09:54:49 00:52
10 Monique Grossrieder SUI 01:09:01 05:24:58 03:16:47 09:56:47 -24:54
11 Michaela Rudolf AUT 01:10:35 05:07:57 03:35:50 10:00:55 06:59
12 Megumi Shigaki JPN 01:05:08 05:13:28 03:49:47 10:13:55 -37:17
13 Vanessa Pereira POR 01:06:16 05:37:29 03:51:53 10:42:50 05:35

Challenge Roth 2014 – Analyzing Results

July 25, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Race Conditions

Even with the usual large number of sub-8 and sub-9 finishes, with an adjustment of 14:20 this year was a relatively slow race for the fast Roth standard (new course rating of 19:13).

Male Race Results

Timo Bracht fulfilled one of his dreams and won Roth. He had to work hard for it – after a great swim he rode with the second group and then hunted down long-time leader Nils Frommhold with a fantastic 2:44 run. Nils had a great day as well, and a 2:54 marathon after a 4:15 bike had him miss a sub-8 finish by seconds. Eneko Llanos finished third, he ran a solid sub-3 marathon without being really pushed. Joe Gambles had a great race with a strong run, James Cunnama struggled with stomach issues on the marathon (still sub-3), Dirk Bockel couldn’t quite deliver on the run, and Michael Rünz had a great first Ironman. So many great results, also opening up lots of interesting speculations for Kona.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Timo Bracht GER 00:48:58 04:19:59 02:44:32 07:56:00 -13:56
2 Nils Frommhold GER 00:48:39 04:15:16 02:54:03 08:00:39 -08:04
3 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:49:02 04:19:54 02:57:35 08:09:29 00:38
4 Joe Gambles AUS 00:48:47 04:23:05 02:55:36 08:10:10 -13:58
5 James Cunnama ZAF 00:49:03 04:20:16 02:59:49 08:11:44 -14:19
6 Dirk Bockel LUX 00:48:44 04:20:07 03:11:20 08:22:41 15:32
7 Michael Rünz GER 00:52:17 04:35:57 02:52:20 08:23:44 n/a
8 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:53:05 04:34:58 02:57:03 08:28:26 -12:07
9 Roeland Smits NED 00:52:47 04:36:46 02:56:50 08:29:20 -24:50
10 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:52:36 04:18:25 03:23:39 08:37:33 11:20
11 Michael Wetzel GER 00:57:01 04:38:48 03:00:15 08:39:01 -20:02
12 Dirk Wijnalda NED 00:55:58 04:35:59 03:06:38 08:41:29 -19:49
13 Sebastian Bleisteiner GER 00:52:22 04:42:51 03:09:38 08:48:22 n/a
14 Per Bittner GER 00:49:04 04:27:51 03:39:41 08:59:36 22:48
15 Joseph Spindler GER 00:59:51 04:33:54 03:32:12 09:08:55 14:37
16 Thomas Naasz NED 00:56:39 04:51:13 03:20:20 09:11:41 -02:09
17 Harri Sokk EST 00:57:14 04:37:48 03:33:52 09:12:54 -02:16
18 Andreas Niedrig GER 00:48:54 04:27:18 04:04:55 09:24:51 24:53
19 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:48:42 04:45:15 03:54:54 09:32:25 1:08:22
20 Nis Lind DEN 00:59:42 04:53:19 04:28:04 10:28:23 57:11

Female Race Results

The women’s race shaped up to be a trial run for Kona with the „Big Four“ in women’s Ironman racing going head-to-head. At the front, it was a repeat of Kona, with Mirinda Carfrae running down Rachel Joyce who finished second. Caroline Steffen is still looking for the perfect bike/run balance, she lost a bit of time to Rachel and Rinnie, and then had a solid 3:05 marathon – which is no longer good enough to win in a world class field. However, she seems to be focused on Kona, and we’ll see what she can deliver in October! Yvonne Van Vlerken is probably happy with fourth place. Her swim is not quite yet where it was before her shoulder injury, she posted the fastest bike and then lost a bit of time on the run – still finishing sub-9! As with Xena, I’m looking forward to what she can do in Kona. Julia Gajer posted another solid Roth race – but a time just over 9 hours was only good for 5th place. She struggled a bit on the bike, but then posted the second fastest marathon time – just wait till she has a race with a good bike (such as Texas) and a good run (such as Roth)! 

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:55:24 04:46:48 02:53:27 08:38:53 -18:04
2 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:52:43 04:43:11 03:03:21 08:42:25 -16:17
3 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:52:08 04:48:14 03:05:05 08:48:42 -10:10
4 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:59:24 04:42:17 03:14:40 08:59:36 -00:21
5 Julia Gajer GER 00:52:26 05:03:05 03:02:08 09:00:50 -06:23
6 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:06 04:43:02 03:27:58 09:13:16 -12:30
7 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:52:10 04:56:47 03:21:43 09:13:23 -05:34
8 Simone Maier GER 01:02:35 05:00:57 03:23:17 09:31:24 -08:16
9 Daniela Saemmler GER 00:55:38 05:01:14 03:37:31 09:37:46 18:49
10 Ana Casares ESP 01:11:00 05:04:46 03:21:01 09:41:14 -16:42
11 Joyce Wolfe IRL 01:00:05 05:18:28 03:24:30 09:47:03 01:55
12 Lina-kristin Schink GER 01:10:31 05:17:22 03:32:07 10:03:44 n/a
13 Tracy Douglas AUS 01:06:19 05:14:50 03:42:35 10:07:33 10:46
14 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 01:06:22 05:00:20 04:00:48 10:10:50 32:43
15 Yvette Grice GBR 00:55:37 05:26:50 04:11:27 10:38:28 51:41
16 Sirlet Viilas EST 01:06:26 05:49:29 03:55:52 10:56:03 n/a
17 Ann Ciaverella USA 01:06:31 05:54:02 04:49:32 11:54:53 1:29:01

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