Women’s Field as Deep as Men’s?

December 12, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Analysis 

One of the ongoing issues in Ironman racing is the disparity between Pro men and Pro women slots in Kona (50 for men, 35 for women). The main argument for the different number of slots is that there are a lot more men than women racing. Roughly, there is a relation of 2 men to 1 women that has been pretty much unchanged in recent years.

However, women’s races are often more exciting than the men’s race. In one of my older posts on this issue I’ve presented data indicating that the racing at the front of the women’s race is probably even closer than on the men’s side. Arguments for that include the number of lead changes on the run, or the time difference among athletes on the podium.

However, the decision by WTC not to increase the number of women’s Kona slots seems to be based on the perception that men’s field is „deeper“ than the women’s field. This post has a look at this claim and tries to provide data.

Suggestions for Measuring Depth Of Field

There have been a few „proofs“ that the men’s field is deeper than women’s. However, they don’t hold up to closer scrutiny.

Kona 2014

I’ve heard Kona 2014 mentioned as anecdotal evidence that the women’s field was lacking strength. The observation was that by the time the field reached Kawaihae, 30 men were still in the race. At the same point in the women’s race, there were only ten contenders left.

Of course, using an arbitrary point in a single race is neither convincing nor statistically significant. There are tons of counterexamples, take for example Kona 2014 (the same race) about 30k into the run. At that time, the men’s race was practically decided with Sebastian Kienle 10 minutes ahead of the rest of the field, while there were at least three women with a chance to win the race (Daniela Ryf, Rachel Joyce and Mirinda Carfrae).

KPR Points at #50

Another argument that is used very often is the number of KPR points at #50. Here’s the data from 2014 (not using Automatic Qualifiers):

  • Schildknecht 3.915 vs. Bazlen 3.595

There is only a 320 points difference, probably smaller than some proponents of this argument make it sound. Also, the difference is a consequence of #50 being interesting for the men and not interesting for the women. We can easily refute the argument that this shows a lack of depth for the women by looking at #35:

  • Jurkiewicz 4.280 vs. Wee 5.040

While Bree has a lot more points than Jeremy, I don’t think that this shows that the men’s field is less deep than the women’s field – it just shows that #35 is interesting for the women and not for the men.

Time Differences

As an example of many similar lines of argument, Andrew Starykowicz has posted a detailed look at the time differences between the TopX in men’s and women’s fields. His data shows that the men’s races are much „tighter“ than the women’s races:

StarkyData

However, this ignores the fact that the women’s fields are smaller and that a smaller field leads to larger gaps between the finishers. To simplify a bit, if the women’s field is half as large as the men’s field, this leads to time differences twice as large (e.g. if the male have a difference at #10 of 9,5%, the expected female difference would be in the order of 19% instead of the observed 11%). So rather than show that the women’s fields are less competitive, the larger difference is more a sign of the smaller fields.

Races with Small Women’s Fields

Each season, there is at least won Pro race that has a very small women’s Pro field. In 2013 IM France had only five starters, in 2014 IM Wales had only two. Of course it’s always bad if prize money goes unclaimed (France paid 8 deep, Wales 6 deep), but I think that this is again a consequence of the lower number of women racing: There are too many races for the smaller women’s field. I have suggested in my post on the Registration Procedures that WTC should keep Pros informed about the number of athletes that have already suggested for a race so that these very low numbers can be avoided.

My Suggestion

It’s actually surprisingly hard to come up with a measurement for the depth of the field, considering the different field sizes and different finishing times. A way that I suggest are Relative Finish Distribution Charts („REFIDCHs“). A Relative Finish Distribution Chart shows the percentage of finishers for different percentages of the winner’s time. Here’s the chart for the men’s Kona finishers from 2011 to 2014 (the years that the KPR has been used to determine the fields):

KonaMen

On the horizontal axis we see the relative finishing time (for example 105% means that the time equivalent to 105% of the winners time in a given year). On the vertical axis the chart shows the part of the field that has finished faster than the time on the x-asis. (For example, roughly 35% of the athletes finished within 105% of the winner’s time.)

REFIDCHs can be used to visualize the depth of the field. A „deep“ field will finish pretty close to the winner, resulting in a very steep graph. A „less deep“ field will have a flatter curve, showing that more athletes have finished further away from the winner. So if the women in Kona were less competitive, they would have a flatter curve, one that would be to the right of the men’s graph.

So let’s add the women’s distribution:

KonaMF

The two graphs have a very similar shape – if there is a difference, the women’s graph is to the left of the men’s graph, indicating a slightly deeper women’s field.

Let’s control for the influence of the different field sizes. One could argue that the smaller women’s field cuts away the slower end of the field. (Anecdotally, this isn’t the case: Some women that missed Kona this year included athletes such as Amy Marsh, Angela Naeth, Rebekah Keat, Laura Bennett or Eimear Mullan that could have placed well in Kona.) This is pretty hard to factor into the data, so I’ve done the next best thing by removing the men’s qualifiers in #35 to #50 from the results. (For 2014, this would have affected such well-placed finishers as 2nd Ben Hoffman, 6th Nils Frommhold or 10th Romain Guillaume.) Adding in a third graph for the „reduced Men’s field“ produces the following chart:

KonaAll

While reducing the men’s field has led to a steeper graph (indicating that more athletes would have been cut from the „slower“ end of the field), the graphs are still very close together, crossing each other at various points. Using this chart, there is no indication that the women’s field is any less competitive or deep than the men’s field or even the reduced men’s field.

Conclusion

I couldn’t find any data that supports the claim that the depth of the women’s field is any worse than the men’s field. (If you have other suggestions, please let me know!) While the lower number of athletes leads to bigger gaps in the Ironman races across the globe, at least the women that made it to Kona are as competitive as their male counterparts. In my eyes, the women’s race in Kona would be even more exciting than it already is if there were 50 Pro slots for the women.

Ironman Western Australia 2014 – Analyzing Results

December 7, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Course Rating

Conditions were favorable for fast times. The adjustment of 26:51 (mainly because of a very fast bike) was the fastest ever in Busselton, leading to a new course rating of 14:36.

Male Race Results

Once Denis Chevrot took the lead on the finishing part of the bike, he didn’t let go of the lead. His superb splits (fastest swim, fifth fastest bike, and fastest run) gave him a comfortable margin in the end, but he had to work hard for his win all day long. Lots of Australian contenders had to drop out (among them Fettell, Kemp, Gambles and Dellow), so the race ended with a European Top 5: Patrik Nilsson (recent winner of IM Malaysia) finished second, followed by Per Bittner in third. Roman Guillaume more or less took care of Kona qualifying with his fourth place, followed by veteran Mike Schifferle.

Any race recap of Western Australia would be incomplete without mentioning Jason Shortis: Jason finished his 83rd IM-distance race and ended his long career.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:46:23 04:26:42 02:49:11 08:05:58 -25:45
2 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:47:04 04:27:50 02:53:37 08:12:11 -26:24
3 Per Bittner GER 00:48:36 04:26:20 02:56:29 08:14:37 -15:35
4 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:47:07 04:30:16 02:59:24 08:21:15 -04:56
5 Mike Schifferle SUI 00:59:32 04:23:12 03:05:16 08:34:18 -11:48
6 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:50:21 04:37:59 03:03:59 08:36:26 -15:14
7 Gergö Molnar HUN 00:48:51 04:35:31 03:13:29 08:42:11 -13:11
8 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:48:43 04:25:59 03:30:21 08:48:37 10:04
9 Guy Crawford NZL 00:46:59 04:27:45 03:33:00 08:51:50 -00:26
10 Markus Thomschke GER 00:50:28 04:24:05 03:39:06 08:57:47 17:30
11 Darren Jenkins AUS 01:06:41 04:41:41 03:06:02 08:58:36 -10:41
12 Shanon Stallard NZL 00:55:34 04:52:01 03:08:04 08:59:28 -12:38
13 Jason Shortis AUS 00:59:55 05:04:14 03:02:10 09:11:25 41:36
14 Joshua Rix AUS 00:50:23 04:33:52 04:01:59 09:30:32 51:28
Joe Gambles AUS 00:47:05 04:27:33 DNF
David Dellow AUS 00:47:21 04:27:33 DNF
Nick Baldwin SEY 00:49:52 04:34:28 DNF
Matty White AUS 00:50:24 04:34:03 DNF
Simon Billeau FRA 00:55:23 04:34:38 DNF
Christian Kemp AUS 00:46:56 04:47:38 DNF
Johan Borg AUS 00:55:07 04:39:41 DNF
Jarmo Hast FIN 00:48:47 05:04:50 DNF
Clayton Fettell AUS 00:46:29 DNF

Female Race Results

Liz Blatchford took control of the race from the start, leading the field after the swim and in the early parts of the bike. However, she then received two 4-minute drafting penalties, so her third place finish leaves a lot of „what if“ questions. Yvonne Van Vlerken is in a similar situation, she had two crashes on the bike and had the medicals look her over. At some point she was fighting for third place but ran a little bit out of gas. Still, her fifth place gives her some more points for Kona 2015.

The bike leg was dominated by Mareen Hufe who entered T2 with a 7-minute lead. She ran a solid marathon, but it wasn’t quite enough to hold on to the lead as Britta Martin (German-born but now starting for New Zealand) posted a 3:00:00 marathon, winning by almost four minutes. Mareen managed to hold off the speedy runners Liz Blatchford and super-mom Beth Gerdes, who ran a 2:58 marathon just six months after giving birth to daughter Wynne.

The fast conditions resulted in three new course records: Britta posted a new overall record (improving Gina Crawford’s 8:59:24), Mareen improved her own bike record (4:47:53) from last year, and Beth posted a new run record (improving on Liz Lyles 3:00:37 from last year).

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Britta Martin NZL 00:56:39 04:55:37 03:00:00 08:56:34 -15:26
2 Mareen Hufe GER 00:58:02 04:44:16 03:14:13 09:00:21 -17:29
3 Liz Blatchford GBR 00:52:13 04:58:27 03:07:27 09:02:11 06:27
4 Beth Gerdes USA 01:02:10 05:00:25 02:58:17 09:04:38 -33:33
5 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:58:14 04:51:04 03:12:05 09:05:39 11:28
6 Bree Wee USA 00:53:34 04:57:22 03:14:19 09:08:55 -11:53
7 Asa Lundstroem SWE 00:57:54 04:55:04 03:14:28 09:11:13 -04:46
8 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:02:06 04:51:14 03:14:52 09:12:38 -11:48
9 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 01:02:15 04:52:12 03:13:52 09:12:51 -34:25
10 Katy Duffield AUS 00:56:35 05:06:38 03:21:05 09:28:13 -25:06
11 Kym Coogan AUS 00:56:36 05:02:35 03:30:05 09:33:50 n/a
12 Tracy Douglas AUS 01:03:10 04:59:23 03:29:30 09:35:56 -22:09
13 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 00:52:14 05:15:15 03:34:25 09:46:07 -08:03
14 Jeanne Collonge FRA 00:57:51 05:00:31 03:45:50 09:48:55 18:53
15 Kristy Hallett AUS 01:02:09 05:02:23 03:41:09 09:51:06 -28:12
16 Nina Pekerman ISR 00:58:10 05:21:37 03:25:59 09:51:24 -02:23
17 Michelle Duffield AUS 01:02:08 05:03:35 03:42:56 09:53:27 08:50
18 Erin Furness NZL 01:02:08 05:13:21 03:34:44 09:54:40 -02:03
Diana Riesler GER 00:56:37 04:52:29 DNF
Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:56:39 04:58:57 DNF
Melanie Burke NZL 01:05:35 04:50:45 DNF
Lisa Marangon AUS 00:54:45 05:10:44 DNF
Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:56:31 05:33:52 DNF
Dede Griesbauer USA 00:52:21 DNF
Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:55:14 DNF

Ironman Cozumel 2014 – Analyzing Results

December 1, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: RaceResults 

Race Conditions

Based on the numbers, this year was a slow race for Cozumel (7:43, leading to a new course rating of 9:48). Mainly this was caused by a windy bike with a negative adjustment while conditions on the run were tough as seems to be normal for the heat and humidity in Cozumel.

Male Race Results

Michael Weiss defended his title, followed by Matt Chrabot who seems to have figured out IM racing much better than in his first try in Arizona 2013. The last spit on the podium was taken by Clemente Alonso who raced his third IM in eight weeks (finishing 1-2-3), more or less securing a Kona slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Michael Weiss AUT 00:50:28 04:22:20 02:55:22 08:12:16 -15:12
2 Matt Chrabot USA 00:44:27 04:44:28 02:57:02 08:29:50 -47:48
3 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:44:25 04:44:43 02:56:41 08:30:17 06:23
4 Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:50:17 04:46:32 02:55:39 08:35:54 -18:32
5 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:50:20 04:46:28 03:03:41 08:45:41 -10:30
6 Marcel Bischof GER 00:52:26 04:49:47 03:00:08 08:47:16 -37:03
7 Darby Thomas FIN 00:58:01 04:51:35 02:55:08 08:48:15 -09:41
8 Matthew Russell USA 00:52:13 04:47:22 03:06:17 08:50:06 01:15
9 Francisco Serrano MEX 00:47:53 04:51:25 03:13:26 08:56:14 n/a
10 Raul Tejada GTM 00:50:23 04:53:33 03:06:57 08:56:24 n/a
11 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:54:52 04:48:12 03:12:18 09:00:20 22:39
12 Sebastian Bleisteiner GER 00:50:29 05:04:19 03:10:43 09:10:17 -03:03
13 Georg Swoboda AUT 00:51:28 04:43:45 03:31:46 09:11:32 06:28
14 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:45:29 04:57:57 03:23:22 09:11:32 13:03
15 Allan Villanueva MEX 00:50:29 05:01:34 03:22:05 09:18:15 -22:26
16 Greg Close USA 00:53:08 05:11:23 03:10:48 09:19:32 -07:44
17 Gustavo Rodriguez ESP 00:50:34 04:59:44 03:23:00 09:23:26 -00:05
18 Scott Bradley USA 01:00:04 05:02:29 03:27:50 09:34:13 n/a
19 Oliver Gonzalez MEX 00:47:59 05:35:52 03:10:00 09:39:19 n/a
20 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:47:57 05:15:09 03:28:45 09:40:58 -10:33
21 Jason Smith USA 00:50:21 04:57:38 03:54:47 09:47:24 -1:08:59
22 Rodrigo Acevedo COL 00:50:24 05:41:29 03:57:28 10:34:06 n/a
23 Jason Watson USA 00:56:41 05:33:58 04:34:44 11:11:37 03:05
Peru Alfaro ESP 00:44:23 04:51:39 DNF
Bas Diederen NED 00:44:36 04:51:51 DNF
Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:44:33 04:54:49 DNF
Rene Vallant AUT 00:52:28 04:50:41 DNF
Jorge Vazquez MEX 00:50:26 05:05:32 DNF
James Brown GBR 00:59:37 05:22:21 DNF
Andres Castillo Latorre COL 00:44:29 DNF
Todd Skipworth AUS 00:44:29 DNF
Sergio Quezada MEX 00:48:22 DNF
Dan Mcintosh USA 00:48:42 DNF

Female Race Results

Nicola Spirig raced a smart first Ironman, staying near the front of the race for most of the time, then running the second fastest marathon to catch bike leader Michelle Vesterby who finished a strong second. Kelly Williamson posted another sub-3 marathon to run herself into the last podium spot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Nicola Spirig SWI 00:47:12 05:15:03 03:06:19 09:14:07 n/a
2 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:49:08 05:11:02 03:13:08 09:17:30 -06:04
3 Kelly Williamson USA 00:49:24 05:33:53 02:57:02 09:24:41 -04:52
4 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:47:09 05:18:46 03:27:44 09:38:20 -01:35
5 Lucie Reed CZE 00:47:11 05:35:36 03:22:48 09:50:11 07:42
6 Jessie Donavan USA 01:02:57 05:18:35 03:23:57 09:51:22 15:48
7 Kelly Fillnow USA 00:59:08 05:29:37 03:25:53 09:59:20 -20:32
8 Tine Holst DEN 01:03:05 05:34:10 03:22:27 10:04:04 -08:07
9 Brooke Brown CAN 01:00:40 05:28:37 03:30:51 10:04:43 -12:13
10 Christine Fletcher CAN 00:54:53 05:31:31 03:33:58 10:06:19 -04:51
11 Amy Javens USA 01:03:11 05:31:34 03:43:43 10:23:48 -03:08
12 Katie Thomas USA 00:49:21 05:33:43 03:55:21 10:25:27 00:34
13 Tami Ritchie USA 00:49:24 05:45:12 03:51:40 10:32:12 -11:47
14 Corrie Kristick USA 00:49:17 05:21:42 04:21:10 10:37:59 n/a
15 Ruth Nivon Machoud MEX 00:47:14 06:00:56 03:55:46 10:49:06 n/a
16 Ann Ciaverella USA 01:08:49 06:03:43 03:53:19 11:12:08 18:46
Erika Csomor HUN 00:55:04 05:41:25 DNF
Anne Basso FRA 00:54:51 05:52:38 DNF
Eimear Mullan IRL 00:54:57 DNF
Jennie Hansen USA 00:59:24 DNF

Ironman Western Australia (Dec 7th) – Predictions

November 27, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Busselton

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Mitchell Anderson (AUS) 08:27:35 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:47:27
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:03:55 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:10:00
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:05:58 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:00:54
2008 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:06 Gina Ferguson (NZL) 08:59:24
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:13:59 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:16:52
2010 Courtney Ogden (AUS) 08:14:01 Kate Bevilaqua (AUS) 09:19:44
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:12:39 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:25:38
2012 Jimmy Johnsen (DEN) 08:29:06 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:13:00
2013 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 08:08:16 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 08:59:44

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:47:03 04:29:17 02:48:18 08:08:16
2 Markus Thomschke GER 00:53:17 04:27:16 02:51:23 08:16:01
3 David Dellow AUS 00:48:16 04:32:34 02:54:26 08:19:10

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:57:11 04:58:21 03:00:37 08:59:44
2 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:49 04:47:53 03:16:24 09:08:00
3 Lisa Marangon AUS 00:54:10 04:56:20 03:24:29 09:19:29

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:55 Jason Shortis 2006-12-03
Swim overall 00:44:42 Pete Jacobs 2007-12-01
Bike overall 04:18:07 Mitchell Anderson 2006-12-03
Run overall 02:43:48 Robert Thomas 2007-12-01
Total female 08:59:24 Gina Ferguson 2008-12-07
Swim female 00:48:25 Tereza Macel 2007-12-01
Bike female 04:47:53 Mareen Hufe 2013-12-08
Run female 03:00:37 Elizabeth Lyles 2013-12-08

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 13:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 01:52 -02:59 01:39 -02:20 20 01:52 -02:59 01:39 -02:20
2006 14:45 00:28 14:38 02:50 25 08:19 -01:15 08:09 00:15
2007 24:27 00:42 13:35 04:21 37 13:41 -00:36 09:57 01:37
2008 15:18 -00:10 15:45 -00:09 29 14:05 -00:30 11:24 01:11
2009 12:44 01:13 14:16 -04:43 19 13:49 -00:09 11:59 00:00
2010 09:25 00:07 10:11 02:03 21 13:05 -00:06 11:41 00:20
2011 05:08 -00:24 08:46 02:38 25 11:57 -00:09 11:16 00:40
2012 14:49 -01:25 08:46 02:40 23 12:18 -00:19 10:57 00:55
2013 20:42 00:06 15:03 05:48 16 13:14 -00:16 11:24 01:28

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 50k$.

Male Race Participants

Please note special bib #83: Western Australia will be the 83rd and final Ironman race for Jason Shortis.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 David Dellow AUS 08:19:25 08:29:32 00:47:37 04:29:50 02:56:58 11
2 18 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:21:28 08:49:59 00:45:11 04:24:54 03:06:23 (57)
3 3 Joe Gambles AUS 08:28:01 08:40:23 00:49:09 04:32:50 03:01:01 31
4 8 Christian Kemp AUS 08:29:44 08:53:26 00:47:05 04:32:53 03:04:46 (73)
5 9 Matty White AUS 08:33:14 09:04:24 00:51:36 04:32:08 03:04:30 119
6 7 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:33:54 08:52:24 00:52:31 04:40:42 02:55:41 66
7 2 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:34:21 08:51:06 00:49:04 04:32:11 03:08:06 61
8 5 Matt Burton AUS 08:34:35 08:55:17 00:54:17 04:30:00 03:05:18 (83)
9 20 Todd Israel AUS 08:35:14 09:09:28 00:50:11 04:40:15 02:59:48 141
10 16 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:35:21 08:55:52 00:48:36 04:44:31 02:57:13 87
11 10 Markus Thomschke GER 08:35:50 09:07:01 00:54:03 04:34:31 03:02:16 136
12 83 Jason Shortis AUS 08:37:10 08:57:14 00:54:25 04:39:46 02:58:00 96
13 4 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:37:27 09:03:03 00:50:30 04:37:36 03:04:20 113
14 11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:39:57 09:03:31 00:52:17 04:29:44 03:12:56 (114)
15 19 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:44:05 08:54:33 00:51:40 04:45:19 03:02:05 80
16 29 Joshua Rix AUS 08:44:21 09:07:26 00:49:59 04:34:08 03:15:14 138
17 17 Guy Crawford NZL 08:44:31 09:18:42 00:48:37 04:33:03 03:17:51 186
18 13 Per Bittner GER 08:44:32 08:54:47 00:51:06 04:43:27 03:04:59 82
19 30 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:46:01 09:04:50 00:49:12 04:36:11 03:15:38 121
20 26 Sylvain Rota FRA 08:47:38 09:03:32 00:53:15 04:38:25 03:10:58 115
21 6 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:49:23 09:05:00 00:55:09 04:41:13 03:08:00 123
22 22 Pontus Lindberg SWE 08:50:11 09:10:27 00:54:32 04:45:37 03:05:01 146
23 28 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:59:48 09:11:40 01:02:02 04:45:20 03:07:25 151
24 12 Johan Borg AUS 09:00:08 09:29:43 00:55:36 04:42:26 03:17:06 227
25 15 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:00:23 09:17:20 00:53:44 04:53:45 03:07:54 177
26 23 Gergö Molnar HUN 09:00:40 09:21:19 00:51:25 04:51:25 03:12:50 196
27 25 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 09:01:36 09:10:30 00:53:04 04:50:36 03:12:56 147
28 21 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:10:46 09:36:03 01:05:32 04:56:55 03:03:19 (251)
29 24 Andreas Niedrig GER 09:11:18 09:22:50 00:48:56 04:41:36 03:35:46 202
30 27 Shanon Stallard NZL 09:15:00 09:38:55 00:57:30 05:00:03 03:12:27 263
  14 Daniel Brown AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 43 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:06:24 09:21:18 00:59:01 04:51:08 03:11:15 6
2 42 Liz Blatchford GBR 09:12:48 09:22:41 00:51:29 05:05:32 03:10:48 8
3 41 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:13:39 09:31:57 00:57:28 05:05:02 03:06:09 18
4 48 Anja Beranek GER 09:13:49 09:37:51 00:53:26 04:54:09 03:21:14 (30)
5 46 Diana Riesler GER 09:20:51 09:41:33 00:59:16 04:55:02 03:21:33 35
6 64 Britta Martin NZL 09:21:51 09:38:40 01:00:34 05:03:36 03:12:40 30
7 62 Mareen Hufe GER 09:27:23 09:44:42 01:00:57 04:56:39 03:24:48 46
8 49 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:28:57 09:53:09 00:54:19 04:59:40 03:29:58 58
9 45 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:31:15 09:43:23 01:01:30 05:06:31 03:18:14 39
10 44 Bree Wee USA 09:32:19 09:48:05 00:54:44 05:09:34 03:23:01 51
11 51 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:35:51 10:17:05 00:57:02 05:05:03 03:28:46 104
12 53 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:36:47 09:59:18 00:58:37 05:09:00 03:24:09 76
13 47 Melanie Burke NZL 09:37:34 09:54:17 01:06:45 05:05:04 03:20:45 59
14 66 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:38:18 09:51:54 01:02:33 05:07:09 03:23:37 55
15 60 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:42:57 10:01:11 00:54:04 05:08:02 03:35:51 81
16 59 Beth Gerdes USA 09:48:57 10:05:15 01:04:11 05:27:36 03:12:10 85
17 58 Erin Furness NZL 09:52:11 10:26:17 01:01:21 05:19:56 03:25:55 124
18 68 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:53:08 10:09:52 00:56:46 05:24:44 03:26:38 94
19 56 Michelle Duffield AUS 09:53:15 10:14:07 01:01:05 05:21:22 03:25:48 101
20 55 Katy Duffield AUS 09:54:23 10:21:34 00:59:22 05:23:02 03:27:00 (112)
21 50 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:54:42 10:14:45 01:03:42 05:20:06 03:25:54 103
22 65 Larisa Marsh NZL 09:56:43 10:19:43 01:01:47 05:16:59 03:32:57 (109)
23 61 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:58:15 10:18:14 01:06:06 05:21:17 03:25:52 106
24 57 Tracy Douglas AUS 10:01:07 10:26:43 01:07:58 05:16:47 03:31:22 (126)
25 67 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:04:01 10:23:11 01:01:10 05:20:34 03:37:17 114
26 52 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 10:05:30 10:23:18 00:53:44 05:22:33 03:44:13 (115)
27 63 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:17:55 10:48:41 01:05:04 05:20:55 03:46:57 151
  54 Kym Coogan AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  69 Pip Taylor AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

At the top of the odds there are a lot of the Australians who either missed Kona (such as David Dellow with an injury, Clayton Fettell who took a year off IM racing) or didn’t quite have the race they wanted (Joe Gambles who finished 27th).

  • David Dellow: 34% (2-1)
  • Joe Gambles: 15% (6-1)
  • Clayton Fettell: 12% (7-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 9% (10-1)
  • Markus Thomschke: 8% (11-1)
  • Christian Kemp: 6% (15-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 4% (24-1)
  • Matty White: 2% (40-1)
  • Joshua Rix: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

After having only 8 female finishers last year, this year sees a strong and deep women’s field, headed by Yvonne Van Vlerken (recent winner of IM Florida) and defending champion Liz Lyles. However, there are a lot of other IM winners in the field (Liz Blatchford, Anja Beranek, Diana Riesler, Britta Martin, Asa Lundstroem, Bree Wee, Kate Bevilacqua, Dede Griebauer), so we can expect an interesting race not only for first place but also for the money slots.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 39% (2-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 28% (3-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 12% (7-1)
  • Liz Blatchford: 9% (10-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 6% (17-1)
  • Britta Martin: 4% (22-1)

Registration, Withdrawals and Start Lists

November 26, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Analysis 

Last year I wrote a post on procedures around Pro registration for Ironman races. In it, I have made a few suggestions for improvements and wanted to check on the progress.

Suggestions from Last Year

Here is a quick overview of the changes I suggested:

  1. Information on how many athletes have already registered for a race
  2. Standard registration deadline of four weeks
  3. Easily available start lists after end of registration
  4. Stricter withdrawal process

Let’s have a closer look at what happened with each of these suggestions.

Registration Levels

I am not aware of any information that is made available to Pro athletes (or the triathlon press) that indicates how many athletes have registered for a race. If this information had been available, it might have helped to prevent the really small Pro fields (most notably IM Wales which only had two Pro women). From what I heard, some more athletes were interesting to start in Wales after the start list was published, but were declined as the registration deadline had already passed.

As I have suggested last year, I don’t think that putting out the information has to be complicated: A monthly email newsletter by Pro Services to the athletes could just note the current number of athletes registered for the races in the next months, and athletes could adjust their plans accordingly.

Registration Deadline

For most races, a registration deadline of three weeks was used (and in some cases, strictly enforced). I think that almost all Pro athletes are aware that they have to plan their races in time. Except for a few licensed races, I don’t really see this as an issue an more – a three week deadline seems to be standard and accepted.

Start Lists

Ironman has made big steps forward in making start lists available: They have a standard location on their website for Pro start lists (Results – Pro Athletes, then Event Registration – Pro Start Lists). A big thumbs up!

However, there are still some improvements that should be made for the 2015 season:

  • While it’s been working well for North American and Asia/Pacific races, it was hard to get timely and up-to-date information for European races.
  • The start list should be available within days after the registration deadline, but there were a lot of cases when it takes much longer.

Withdrawals

This is the area where more progress should to be made. Quite often, athletes that have announced on social media that they won’t be starting are still on the start list – apparently because Pro Registration has not been notified. It seems to me that the sanctions that Ironman has in place (basically starting at losing 500 KPR points) are not sufficient to ensure that all athletes that won’t start properly notify Pro Registration services.

Also, the information about withdrawals should be reflected in the published start lists. At this point, it is not apparent when start lists are updated and where the updates have occurred. I think two simple changes could help here:

  • On Ironman.com, note the date that the list was last changed in addition to the race name (so instead of „Ironman Lake Placid“ it should be „Ironman Lake Placid (updated June 10th)“)
  • In the list, cross out athletes that won’t start, and note late additions in a special way (e.g. color or by adding „LA“ at their bib).

Overall

I think that Ironman Pro Registration has put a lot of work into improving the information that is available. In addition, I’m thankful that Paula and Heather are alway very helpful and quick in answering my requests. (From what I heard, they are also great in answering questions from Pros and the triathlon press.) However, I think there is still room for improvement in the information that is publicly available, and I hope that this will also make their job a bit easier by reducing the number of requests they have to handle.

Next Page »

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