“Silent” Updates to the KPR 2015

August 19, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: Analysis 

When WTC announced the changes to the KPR for 2015, a number of questions were left open (for examples please refer to my post on the number of Pro races). In the last week, Ironman has quietly updated their 2015 Pro schedule and a few open questions have been answered:

  • The announcement included that there would be a fifth Regional Championship. It is now clear that this will be the African Championship in South Africa.
  • The announcement announced changes to the North American Ironman races but did not contain any statements whether there would be changes in other regions. When asked, WTC told me that regions outside of North America and Europe would be „Status Quo“. In fact, all races in Africa, Asia and Pacific keep their Pro status.
  • WTC said that they would be „[s]ome changes and refocusing of money and points strategically in EMEA region“ and there was some speculation about changes for European races. However, the published race calendar does not have any changes for the European races.

I am a bit surprised by these non-changes and the way they were made public without any press release. As there are no changes outside of North America for 2015, the new schedule – with a fewer number of races in North America – puts North American athletes at a clear disadvantage. I think that we can still expect some changes in Europe for 2016, but apparently the time for making these changes for 2015 qualifying has been running out.

For now, we will have 33 Pro races in the 2015 Kona qualifying (up one race from 32 races in 2014, mainly because there are going to be five new races). Unless there are going to be more changes (such as new races or races loosing Pro status), that number will go down to 30 races for 2016.

Challenge Penticton 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

August 19, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Jeff Symonds (CAN) 08:29:57 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:27:26

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:55:37 04:43:26 02:47:31 08:29:57
2 Scott Defilippis USA 00:59:01 04:56:03 02:45:54 08:44:48
3 Jamie Whyte NZL 00:57:20 04:51:47 03:03:35 08:56:08

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Carrie Lester AUS 00:58:59 05:07:53 03:17:01 09:27:26
2 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:58:47 05:19:12 03:20:21 09:41:42
3 Jen Annett CAN 01:09:22 05:21:06 03:24:47 09:58:23

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:29:57 Jeff Symonds 2013-08-25
Swim overall 00:55:37 Jeff Symonds 2013-08-25
Bike overall 04:43:26 Jeff Symonds 2013-08-25
Run overall 02:45:54 Scott Defilippis 2013-08-25
Total female 09:27:26 Carrie Lester 2013-08-25
Swim female 00:58:47 Karen Thibodeau 2013-08-25
Bike female 05:07:53 Carrie Lester 2013-08-25
Run female 03:17:01 Carrie Lester 2013-08-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Penticton is 13:58.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Penticton

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 13:58 -04:35 -01:55 07:35 13 13:58 -04:35 -01:55 07:35

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:22:22 08:35:42 00:50:59 04:44:01 02:49:06 30
2 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:47:11 09:01:11 00:54:17 04:45:18 03:14:51 136
3 Sean Bechtel CAN 08:49:22 09:03:25 00:47:27 04:44:44 03:16:23 (142)
4 Scott Defilippis USA 08:50:28 09:04:33 00:55:39 05:00:47 03:01:49 147
5 Andrew Russell CAN 08:51:12 09:05:18 00:48:49 04:50:59 03:14:19 (151)
6 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:55:44 09:09:57 00:53:01 05:03:12 03:07:53 174
7 Matthew Sheeks USA 08:58:10 09:12:27 01:02:48 05:01:13 02:57:26 188
8 Douglas MacLean USA 09:06:53 09:21:24 00:58:37 05:03:35 03:10:17 210
9 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:10:48 09:25:25 00:54:29 05:08:56 03:13:22 224
10 Nathan Killam CAN 09:16:46 09:31:33 00:54:52 05:00:33 03:18:17 (255)
11 Nathan Champness CAN 09:21:37 09:36:31 00:56:40 04:48:52 03:21:01 (269)
12 Christopher Bagg USA 09:22:00 09:36:55 00:53:28 04:54:38 03:39:03 271
13 Rick Floyd USA 09:37:54 09:53:14 00:59:43 05:17:20 03:11:21 (344)
14 Chris Young CAN 10:22:26 10:38:57 01:02:59 05:01:16 04:04:39 (441)
15 Elmar Heger GER 10:25:02 10:41:37 00:56:07 05:13:37 04:25:40 (442)
16 Josh Seifarth CAN 10:30:23 10:47:07 00:53:20 05:10:13 04:21:34 (447)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Carrie Lester AUS 09:28:57 09:44:03 00:55:57 05:15:54 03:25:49 49
2 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:35:49 09:51:06 01:00:51 05:19:59 03:18:30 69
3 Uli Bromme USA 09:40:46 09:56:11 01:02:44 05:19:31 03:27:49 83
4 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:43:04 09:58:33 00:55:03 05:24:41 03:23:17 91
5 Christine Fletcher CAN 10:02:23 10:18:22 00:59:05 05:28:28 03:41:43 128
6 Jana Candrova CZE 10:07:57 10:24:05 01:03:50 05:34:32 03:39:08 134
7 Trish Deim USA 10:09:26 10:25:37 01:05:19 05:24:33 03:45:32 137
8 Jen Annett CAN 10:10:00 10:26:11 01:03:35 05:19:00 03:32:58 (138)
9 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:15:44 10:32:05 01:04:16 05:26:19 03:52:14 141
10 Jennifer Luebke USA 10:25:29 10:42:05 00:54:00 05:31:58 03:44:48 (153)
11 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:28:23 10:45:04 01:03:40 05:39:54 03:53:40 154
12 Cathleen Knutson USA 10:36:08 10:53:01 01:02:49 05:46:16 03:38:28 (157)
  Danielle Andre   n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Jeff Symonds: 52% (1-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 25% (3-1)
  • Thomas Gerlach: 10% (9-1)
  • Andrew Russell: 3% (29-1)
  • Sean Bechtel: 3% (32-1)
  • Adam O’Meara: 2% (55-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Carrie Lester: 64% (1-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 19% (4-1)
  • Karen Thibodeau: 9% (10-1)
  • Mackenzie Madison: 6% (16-1)

Ironman Copenhagen 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

August 18, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2010 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:39 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:54:36
2011 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:11:15 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:52:42
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:20:09 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 09:12:27
2013 Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN) 08:12:41 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:37:36

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:49:46 04:33:51 02:45:15 08:12:41
2 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 00:47:19 04:23:58 02:57:52 08:13:39
3 Esben Hovgaard DEN 00:51:46 04:31:49 02:49:17 08:16:38

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eva Wutti AUT 00:52:55 04:39:58 03:00:51 08:37:36
2 Daniela Saemmler GER 00:53:02 04:57:42 03:08:14 09:02:51
3 Lucie Reed CZE 00:49:45 05:00:16 03:10:07 09:04:08

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:07:39 Tim Van Berkel 2010-08-01
Swim overall 00:45:22 Stephen Bayliss 2011-08-01
Bike overall 04:23:58 Henrik Hyldelund 2013-08-18
Run overall 02:38:58 Mads Vittrup 2011-08-01
Total female 08:37:36 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:48:29 Ann Lønnberg 2011-08-01
Bike female 04:39:58 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Run female 03:00:51 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 25:22.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2010 30:40 01:24 09:51 10:08 18 30:40 01:24 09:51 10:08
2011 24:30 02:49 11:13 06:44 19 27:35 02:06 10:32 08:26
2012 18:04 02:03 10:24 04:28 16 24:25 02:05 10:29 07:06
2013 28:12 00:50 15:18 07:04 20 25:22 01:46 11:42 07:06

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Timo Bracht GER 07:57:18 08:20:49 00:49:25 04:36:04 02:50:45 3
2 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:13:43 08:38:03 00:48:06 04:49:50 02:53:37 (40)
3 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:18:13 08:42:46 00:52:14 04:49:15 02:55:48 53
4 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:21:24 08:46:06 00:48:27 04:47:46 03:02:22 61
5 Mads Vittrup DEN 08:21:35 08:46:18 00:55:21 04:55:50 02:48:35 (62)
6 Marc Duelsen GER 08:22:59 08:47:46 00:52:00 04:42:57 03:01:28 (66)
7 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:26:36 08:51:34 00:53:06 04:48:31 03:04:10 (82)
8 Mika Luoto FIN 08:29:43 08:54:50 00:53:53 04:54:37 03:01:37 (101)
9 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:33:47 08:59:06 00:55:07 04:52:57 03:03:52 123
10 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 08:33:51 08:59:10 00:47:42 04:44:03 03:18:23 125
11 Teemu Lemmettylae FIN 08:39:46 09:05:23 00:57:23 04:55:29 03:03:18 151
12 Keegan Williams NZL 08:42:18 09:08:02 00:53:04 04:56:04 03:12:43 167
13 Antonio Jesus Aguilar Conejo ESP 09:01:58 09:28:40 01:00:46 05:05:52 02:59:29 (239)
14 Matic Modic SLO 09:06:35 09:33:31 00:56:12 05:02:21 03:13:52 (263)
15 Anders Wagner DEN 09:10:00 09:37:06 01:03:28 05:06:03 03:09:03 (274)
16 Lukas Polan CZE 09:13:21 09:40:37 01:03:31 05:02:07 03:20:14 (285)
17 Anders Lawaetz DEN 09:19:00 09:46:33 01:01:49 05:01:16 03:21:20 (314)
18 Kasper Ougaard DEN 09:21:39 09:49:20 01:02:38 05:00:19 03:28:46 (327)
19 David Jilek CZE 09:23:30 09:51:16 00:58:18 04:57:43 03:33:24 (334)
20 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:29:51 09:57:56 00:56:04 05:05:38 03:34:24 (360)
21 Steve Clark GBR 09:30:28 09:58:35 00:59:13 05:08:39 03:28:32 (366)
22 Martin Cain GBR 09:34:48 10:03:08 00:59:29 05:19:03 03:35:15 371
23 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:34:50 10:03:10 01:00:20 05:21:43 03:32:07 372
24 Dan Brown PHI 09:35:01 10:03:21 01:03:20 05:39:36 03:49:53 374
25 Petr Vales CZE 09:36:01 10:04:24 01:02:41 05:11:30 03:27:58 (378)
Vincent Depuiset FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Nick Hemet n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Roman Krutina CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Christian Nilsson n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Anders Stampe n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Richard Whitfield GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 09:00:14 09:26:51 00:52:47 05:05:23 03:10:52 (14)
2 Leanda Cave GBR 09:00:22 09:27:00 00:50:47 05:11:05 03:19:56 14
3 Sofie Goos BEL 09:09:47 09:36:53 00:55:39 05:16:40 03:19:10 32
4 Mareen Hufe GER 09:19:37 09:47:12 01:01:06 05:11:24 03:28:44 56
5 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:28:00 09:55:59 01:08:26 05:21:17 03:16:18 80
6 Beate Goertz GER 09:28:09 09:56:09 01:04:25 05:07:28 03:27:26 (82)
7 Evi Neuscheler GER 09:33:57 10:02:14 01:03:06 05:15:51 03:27:33 (94)
8 Maria Lemeseva RUS 09:46:25 10:15:19 01:06:36 05:32:46 03:25:30 120
9 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 09:48:43 10:17:44 00:58:52 05:21:08 03:49:49 125
10 Nicole Woysch GER 09:55:55 10:25:17 00:58:35 05:30:28 03:47:39 136
11 Line Foss NOR 10:25:26 10:56:15 01:26:19 05:28:17 03:42:54 (159)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Timo Bracht: 59% (1-1)
  • Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 17% (5-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 17% (5-1)
  • Mads Vittrup: 3% (35-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Leanda Cave: 41% (1-1)
  • Sofie Goos: 30% (2-1)
  • Daniela Ryf: 14% (6-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 10% (9-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 3% (34-1)

KPR Situation

On the men’s side, the big name on the start list is Timo Bracht. Theoretically, he would be in a safe position for a slot after validating, but he has already indicated that he is not interested in racing Kona this year. (Instead, he is targeting IM Mallorca for a good start into the next qualifying cycle.) The best placed athlete in the KPR is Petr Vabrousek with 3.190 points (230 to be discarded). In order to reach the projected cutoff of 4.400 points, he would need a 3rd place in Copenhagen. The only other athlete with a theoretical chance for a slot is Marc Duelsen at 2.140 points (65 to be discarded), but even with a win he needs some other athlete’s bad luck in order to make it.

On the women’s side we have Leanda Cave (probably a DNS after just winning in Sweden), Daniela Ryf (who should already be safe with 5.810 points), Sofie Goos (at 4.265 with 500 points to be discarded) and Mareen Hufe (3.930 with 45 to be discarded). It seems that Sofie and Mareen are racing for one slot - so whoever is in front of the other should be good for a slot as long as it’s at least a 3rd place.

Ironman Japan 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

August 17, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Martin Jensen (DEN) 08:47:53 Shiao-yu Li (TWN) 10:12:42

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Martin Jensen DEN 00:49:22 04:52:28 03:01:09 08:47:53
2 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:55:06 05:12:10 03:05:57 09:19:52
3 Tohara Kaito JAP 09:27:30

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:12:47 05:39:36 03:13:20 10:12:42
2 Michelle Wu AUS 00:57:45 05:57:07 03:16:06 10:19:24
3 Emi Sakai JPN 01:05:45 05:39:01 03:33:12 10:24:19

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:47:53 Martin Jensen 2013-08-31
Swim overall 00:49:22 Martin Jensen 2013-08-31
Bike overall 04:52:28 Martin Jensen 2013-08-31
Run overall 03:01:09 Martin Jensen 2013-08-31
Total female 10:12:42 Shiao-yu Li 2013-08-31
Swim female 00:57:45 Michelle Wu 2013-08-31
Bike female 05:39:01 Emi Sakai 2013-08-31
Run female 03:13:20 Shiao-yu Li 2013-08-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Japan is – 16:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Japan

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 -16:00 -00:23 -19:40 -07:51 11 -16:00 -00:23 -19:40 -07:51

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Michael Rünz GER 09:03:08 08:47:30 00:52:07 04:47:56 02:51:21 (66)
2 Byung Hoon Park KOR 09:21:37 09:05:28 01:02:58 04:47:56 03:02:50 153
3 Brian Fuller AUS 09:23:16 09:07:04 00:51:16 04:57:33 03:14:24 (165)
4 Jose Jeuland FRA 09:27:54 09:11:34 00:52:57 05:03:18 03:05:53 184
5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:33:47 09:17:17 00:47:45 04:55:22 03:30:48 197
6 Kuniaki Takahama JPN 09:36:17 09:19:42 00:49:02 05:24:47 03:02:26 (207)
7 Tohara Kaito JAP 09:38:23 09:21:45 unrated unrated unrated (211)
8 Masayuki Matsumaru JPN 09:41:46 09:25:02 00:55:23 05:02:25 03:21:00 (223)
9 Daiki Masuda JPN 09:49:10 09:32:13 00:55:30 05:08:10 03:32:57 257
10 Tadashi Iida JPN 09:52:43 09:35:40 00:54:29 05:12:50 03:06:05 268
11 Jon Woods NZL 10:03:49 09:46:27 00:56:29 05:06:59 03:33:13 313
12 Timothy Beardall AUS 10:19:50 10:02:00 01:00:42 04:55:35 04:00:06 (371)
13 Yu Shinozaki JPN 11:02:44 10:43:40 00:55:47 05:09:27 04:23:54 (444)
Cedric Lassonde FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Jessica Fleming AUS 10:22:21 10:04:27 01:01:23 05:08:37 03:25:39 (97)
2 Keiko Tanaka JPN 10:26:10 10:08:09 00:55:50 05:28:50 03:32:19 100
3 Emi Sakai JPN 10:40:08 10:21:43 01:05:32 05:23:06 03:40:45 131
4 Shiao-yu Li TWN 10:49:56 10:31:14 01:08:55 05:34:33 03:26:15 (141)
5 Leslie Lamacchia USA 11:01:03 10:42:02 01:07:24 05:41:35 03:44:06 152
6 Megumi Shigaki JPN 11:02:55 10:43:51 00:59:27 05:37:47 03:59:57 153
Mami Ishii JPN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Hiromi Matsumaru JPN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Yoriko Obayashi JPN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Harry Wiltshire: 38% (2-1)
  • Michael Rünz: 19% (4-1)
  • Jose Jeuland: 18% (5-1)
  • Brian Fuller: 11% (8-1)
  • Tohara Kaito: 5% (20-1)
  • Daiki Masuda: 4% (23-1)
  • Byung Hoon Park: 3% (29-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Emi Sakai: 30% (2-1)
  • Shiao-yu Li: 26% (3-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 19% (4-1)
  • Jessica Fleming: 14% (6-1)
  • Megumi Shigaki: 8% (12-1)
  • Leslie Lamacchia: 3% (30-1)

KPR Situation

The most interesting KPR fact is that IM Japan will be in this year’s qualifying cycle twice: It is both the first race (on August 31st, 2013) and also one of the last.

With regards to Kona qualifying, only Harry Wiltshire (2.800 points after Sweden) and last year’s female winner Shiao-yu Li (2.620) have has some theoretical chances to move into the Kona ranks.

Ironman Louisville 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

August 17, 2014 by · Leave a Comment
Filed under: PreRace 

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2007 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:38:40 Heather Gollnick (USA) 09:23:25
2008 Maximilian Longree (GER) 08:34:00 Mariska Kramer-Postma (NED) 09:54:19
2009 Victor Zyemtsev (USA) 08:25:27 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:20:21
2010 Paul Ambrose (GBR) 08:29:59 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:33:15
2011 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:27:36 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:38:14
2012 Patrick Evoe (USA) 08:42:44 Bree Wee (USA) 09:36:27
2013 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:21:34 Kate Bevilaqua (AUS) 09:29:02

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Chris McDonald AUS 00:48:56 04:29:14 02:57:56 08:21:34
2 Patrick Evoe USA 00:51:57 04:36:29 03:00:48 08:34:16
3 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:51:52 04:36:28 03:07:12 08:41:11

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:49:03 05:13:32 03:20:29 09:29:02
2 Brooke Brown CAN 00:59:59 05:13:15 03:15:39 09:33:46
3 Whitney Garcia USA 00:55:00 05:08:09 03:24:30 09:34:21

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:21:34 Chris McDonald 2013-08-25
Swim overall 00:44:54 John Flanagan 2009-08-28
Bike overall 04:29:14 Chris McDonald 2013-08-25
Run overall 02:43:48 Victor Zyemtsev 2009-08-28
Total female 09:20:21 Nina Kraft 2009-08-28
Swim female 00:48:44 Svetlana Blazevic 2013-08-25
Bike female 05:02:24 Lisbeth Kristensen 2009-08-28
Run female 03:05:07 Kim Loeffler 2009-08-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Louisville is 02:49.

Race Adjustments for IM Louisville

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2007 -01:56 00:23 00:20 -06:28 21 -01:56 00:23 00:20 -06:28
2008 -09:48 -02:23 01:54 -11:23 26 -05:52 -01:00 01:07 -08:55
2009 05:40 -01:46 02:02 04:00 33 -02:01 -01:15 01:25 -04:37
2010 -04:21 -01:05 03:17 -08:23 18 -02:36 -01:13 01:53 -05:33
2011 10:47 01:01 05:26 02:04 16 00:04 -00:46 02:36 -04:02
2012 04:48 -02:33 04:47 -03:55 12 00:52 -01:04 02:58 -04:01
2013 14:30 04:10 05:03 02:43 17 02:49 -00:19 03:16 -03:03

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Louisville has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Chris McDonald AUS 08:42:29 08:45:13 00:52:44 04:42:32 03:03:09 59
2 Patrick Evoe USA 08:53:12 08:55:59 00:55:24 04:46:47 03:06:42 111
3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:55:31 08:58:19 00:54:33 04:53:41 03:02:36 119
4 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:58:22 09:01:11 00:54:17 04:45:18 03:14:51 136
5 Guy Crawford NZL 09:02:52 09:05:42 00:49:15 04:48:05 03:26:56 157
6 Clay Emge USA 09:06:35 09:09:27 00:54:22 04:58:59 03:01:48 (172)
7 Jared Milam USA 09:15:38 09:18:32 00:54:13 05:05:02 03:13:36 201
8 Blake Becker USA 09:27:38 09:30:36 00:53:14 05:01:05 03:32:44 249
9 Raymond Botelho USA 09:29:55 09:32:54 00:54:27 04:56:06 03:34:10 261
10 Patrick Schuster USA 09:37:08 09:40:09 01:04:44 05:01:47 03:30:24 283
11 Jim Lubinski USA 09:38:52 09:41:54 01:02:45 05:15:18 03:17:53 289
12 Mike Hermanson USA 09:48:20 09:51:25 00:54:49 05:09:37 03:31:14 (337)
13 Aubrey Aldy USA 09:50:38 09:53:43 01:05:30 05:23:25 03:11:07 345
14 Tom Wood USA 09:55:37 09:58:44 00:57:33 05:20:24 03:19:25 (366)
15 Peter Kotland USA 10:00:44 10:03:53 00:57:43 05:19:02 03:38:04 377
Adam Kosmicki n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Brent Mcburney USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Michael Starkey n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Christopher Sweet n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Leanda Cave GBR 09:24:03 09:27:00 00:50:47 05:11:05 03:19:56 14
2 Nina Kraft GER 09:42:19 09:45:22 00:51:32 05:22:51 03:22:17 53
3 Jackie Arendt USA 09:51:05 09:54:10 00:55:16 05:27:52 03:22:05 77
4 Beth Shutt USA 09:52:58 09:56:04 00:59:52 05:24:08 03:23:54 81
5 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:05:35 10:08:45 00:57:15 05:28:02 03:38:10 103
6 Cindy Lewis CAN 10:14:27 10:17:40 01:03:07 05:33:33 03:32:52 124
7 Molly Roohi USA 10:16:30 10:19:43 01:06:16 05:33:46 03:26:58 129
8 Heather Leiggi USA 10:20:06 10:23:21 01:02:10 05:25:26 03:43:52 (133)
9 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 10:20:32 10:23:47 01:01:40 05:34:56 03:38:48 133
10 Caroline Gregory USA 10:26:22 10:29:39 00:57:10 05:47:25 03:38:44 139
11 Amy Javens USA 10:29:55 10:33:13 01:06:07 05:23:30 03:46:06 (142)
12 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:41:43 10:45:04 01:03:40 05:39:54 03:53:40 154
Shannon Florea n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Katherine Bruck-Lagala USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Chris McDonald: 55% (1-1)
  • Patrick Evoe: 21% (4-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 16% (5-1)
  • Thomas Gerlach: 4% (23-1)
  • Guy Crawford: 2% (55-1)
  • Clay Emge: 2% (57-1)

Female Race Participants

If Leanda Cave would be starting (which is very doubtful after her win in Sweden), she’d be the clear favorite (62%). Leaving her aside, the odds look quite different:

  • Kate Bevilaqua: 38% (2-1)
  • Jackie Arendt: 29% (2-1)
  • Nina Kraft: 14% (6-1)
  • Beth Shutt: 12% (7-1)

KPR Situation

On the men’s side, there is only Chris McDonald (currently at 3.023 points with 8 points potentially discarded from his total) with and Guy Crawford (at 1.435 points and 45 points to be discarded) that have a chance for an August slot. While Chris’s chances are quite realistic (in order to reach my projected cutoff of 4.400 points he would need a first or second, and maybe a third might be enough), Guy would need a win and a lot of help from other athletes. (After Mont Tremblant, Guy is no longer in a position to qualify.)

On the women’s side we have Leanda Cave (probably not starting after winning in Sweden), Jackie Arendt (at 3.750 with 180 points to be discarded) and Beth Shutt who has also entered IM Mont Tremblant (I will update after her result there after she scored enough points in Mont Tremblant, she no longer plans to start in Louisville). At this point (before Mont Tremblant), the projected cutoff for the women is at 5.600 points, so Jackie would need a win to be safe. After Mont Tremblant, Jackie would need a first or second place finish to secure a Kona slot.

Next Page »

Logo SmarterSoftware

  • Interested in my Rating Reports?

    Thousands of people have downloaded my Kona Rating Reports and the Season Rating Reports. If you want to be notified when a new report is available, please leave your name and email!
    * = required field

    powered by MailChimp!
  • 2014 KPR Observer

    KPRTitle

    The Kona Pro Ranking is the system used to determine which Professional triathletes qualify for the Ironman World Championships in Kona. To make the KPR easier to follow and understand, I’ve set up the „2014 KPR Observer“. More details can be found on the sales page at https://gum.co/2014KPR or in my info post on the KPR Observer.

  • Rating Reports

    Here's a list of the Rating Reports I have released so far: You can download these reports by clicking on the titles of the report in the list. If you want to be notified when a new report is released, please subscribe to my mailing list by using the form at the top of the sidebar.
  • IM Predictions & Podcast

    At IM-Predicitions.com you can submit your picks for Ironman-distance races and maybe even win a nice prize!

    To help you make your picks, my friend Luke Dragstra and I have a podcast called IM-Predictions discussing the pro field in upcoming Ironman-distance races.

  • Let me know what you think …

    I look forward to your feedback. You can leave a comment or send me an email to thorsten@trirating.com.
  • Recent Posts

  • Archives

    open all | close all
  • Meta