Ironman UK 2015 (July 19th) – Predictions

IMUK Update (July 11th): Mareen has decided to race in Switzerland and has been removed from the UK startlist. Corinne has told me that she won’t be racing either. (Both allowed me to share this information.)

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Bryan Rhodes (NZL) 08:42:11 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:37:56
2006 Frank Heldoorn (NED) 08:36:34 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:37:41
2007 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 08:35:57 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:36:13
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:53:59 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:49:07
2009 Philip Graves (GBR) 08:45:52 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:34:00
2010 Fraser Cartmell (GBR) 08:40:18 Yvette Grice (GBR) 10:01:03
2011 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:24:34 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:19:04
2012 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:55:11 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 10:08:44
2013 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:45:48 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:29:12
2014 Cyril Viennot (FRA) 08:44:10 Tamsin Lewis (GBR) 09:52:12

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:51:15 04:50:48 02:57:35 08:44:10
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:51:17 05:04:04 02:48:20 08:48:12
3 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:51:14 04:58:58 02:55:41 08:51:01

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Tamsin Lewis GBR 00:55:07 05:33:14 03:18:04 09:52:12
2 Katja Konschak GER 00:51:17 05:59:02 03:14:34 10:11:25
3 Joanna Carritt GBR 01:00:09 05:42:46 03:33:35 10:21:14

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:24:34 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Swim overall 00:43:35 Fraser Cartmell 2010-08-01
Bike overall 04:50:48 Cyril Viennot 2014-07-20
Run overall 02:41:46 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Total female 09:19:04 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31
Swim female 00:48:19 Amanda Stevens 2012-07-22
Bike female 05:22:13 Lucy Gossage 2013-08-04
Run female 02:41:57 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is 00:47.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Ironman UK was held in Sherbourn up to 2008, since 2009 it is held in its current location in Bolton.

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03 18 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03
2007 11:09 03:07 -04:13 10:14 28 10:49 04:01 00:13 08:08
2008 -02:39 01:12 -14:08 04:12 21 06:20 03:05 -04:34 06:50
2009 02:07 -03:07 -10:16 10:41 16 05:16 01:32 -06:00 07:47
2010 00:57 04:32 -24:08 09:33 12 04:24 02:08 -09:37 08:09
2011 08:04 04:43 -14:36 23:08 15 05:01 02:34 -10:27 10:38
2012 -07:15 00:00 -10:22 02:14 8 03:16 02:12 -10:26 09:26
2013 -05:41 04:02 -12:24 03:09 13 02:09 02:25 -10:41 08:39
2014 -10:08 01:09 -15:16 01:17 14 00:47 02:17 -11:11 07:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM UK is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 11 David Dellow AUS 08:28:00 08:36:46 00:44:56 04:48:08 02:49:56 (39)
2 8 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:32:09 08:38:58 00:45:10 04:55:46 02:46:13 46
3 6 David McNamee GBR 08:33:12 08:44:16 00:46:12 04:53:41 02:48:18 (63)
4 10 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:35:10 08:33:24 00:53:09 04:53:22 02:43:38 31
5 4 Joe Skipper GBR 08:35:22 08:43:20 00:50:45 04:51:20 02:48:17 59
6 2 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:39:24 08:47:19 00:46:11 04:48:36 02:59:37 77
7 1 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:42:29 09:04:29 00:45:29 04:55:59 02:56:01 (147)
8 3 Will Clarke GBR 08:59:47 09:11:26 00:47:43 04:56:52 03:10:12 (182)
9 13 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:18:58 10:07:41 00:54:01 04:59:49 03:20:07 400
10 5 Oliver Simon GBR 09:20:04 09:31:44 00:46:44 05:04:20 03:24:00 268
7 Simon Brierley SEY n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
9 Sam Clark n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
14 Brad Williams USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 19 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:20:51 09:19:24 00:54:57 05:19:12 03:01:42 11
2 35 Diana Riesler GER 09:22:14 09:32:41 00:54:52 05:12:22 03:10:00 31
3 21 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:23:17 09:23:37 00:56:55 05:19:27 03:01:55 15
4 37 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:26:44 09:30:27 00:49:45 05:20:58 03:11:00 27
5 29 Mareen Hufe GER 09:37:40 09:37:04 00:57:46 05:18:18 03:16:36 41
6 36 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:56:12 10:06:13 00:53:04 05:41:16 03:16:52 104
7 32 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:57:26 10:00:55 01:04:40 05:38:10 03:09:36 89
8 27 Eleanor Haresign GBR 10:00:47 10:04:43 00:56:58 05:34:42 03:24:07 101
9 33 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:01:22 10:08:22 00:58:30 05:38:35 03:19:17 (110)
10 22 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:05:11 10:13:55 00:59:14 05:38:46 03:22:11 118
11 30 Anne Jensen DNK 10:16:26 10:23:30 01:05:47 05:32:22 03:33:17 (144)
12 20 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:19:01 10:30:08 01:00:21 05:52:05 03:21:35 156
13 24 Jana Candrova CZE 10:27:48 10:31:44 01:01:42 05:49:36 03:31:29 157
14 28 Alice Hector GBR 10:40:36 10:57:41 00:53:27 06:07:11 03:34:58 (170)
31 Kathryn King GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Suzie Richards GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

KPR Situation

Male Race Participants

After his second place in Texas, Joe Skipper is almost assured his Kona slot with 4.015 points, but he’ll want to show that he is the best British athlete on the start list.

Behind him, there are quite a few athletes that are looking for some more points to reach my projected cutoff of 3.800 points. Most of them still have an “open points slot” and can just add their UK points to their total, for the others I’m showing the “base points” before removing their weakest result:

  • Victor Del Corral (3.020, base 2.900; needs 4th or better)
  • Denis Chevrot (2.820; needs 4th or better)
  • David McNamee (2.695; probably needs 3rd or better)
  • Will Clarke (2.405; needs 3rd or better)
  • Fraser Cartmell (1.945; needs a win)

Female Race Participants

Lucy Gossage is racing for the win, with 5.425 points she is already well clear of my cutoff projection of 5.100. Diana Riesler is also safe (6.270) but she has told me that she won’t be racing. There are others that need more points:

  • Corinne Abraham (4.725; needs 6th or better – unclear if she’ll race, she was taken off the Switzerland list and posted on her blog that she’ll be racing Maastricht)
  • Mareen Hufe (4.490, base 3.975; needs 3rd or better – also on the Switzerland list)
  • Michelle Vesterby (3.575; needs 2nd or better)
  • Shia-Yu Li (3.560, base 2.600; probably too far back even with a win)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on previous results, this looks to be a close race between Denis Chevrot and David Dellow, but David has just had a DNF in Frankfurt. If I had to pick a favorite it would be Joe Skipper who had fantastic race in Texas and is anxious to show he can ride sub-5 in Bolton and win his home IM:

  • Denis Chevrot: 26% (3-1)
  • David Dellow: 24% (3-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 15% (6-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 13% (6-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 12% (7-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 6% (15-1)
Will Clarke has announced on his blog that he won’t be racing.

Female Race Participants

Lucy Gossage is the clear favorite for the women, and another British win looks very likely. Diana Riesler won’t start, and Corinne Abraham and Mareen Hufe are also on the list for Switzerland:

  • Lucy Gossage: 44% (1-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 30% (2-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 15% (6-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 8% (11-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 2% (48-1)
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