IM Coeur d’Alene 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

“CdA” is a relatively slow course, with a course rating of 3:46 it is only slightly faster than Kona. Last year’s winners were Craig Alexander in 8:19:48 and Julie Dibens in 9:16:40. To the best of my knowledge these are the course records in Coeur d’Alene, so it’s unrealistic to expect sub-8 or sub-9 times this year.

Male Participants

Victor Zyemtsev is the top ranked athlete on the start list:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Victor Zyemtsev USA 08:37:05 08:40:43 36
2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:42:36 08:46:16 59
3 Chris Lieto USA 08:47:20 08:51:02 91
4 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:54:55 08:58:41 126
5 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:55:22 08:59:08 128
6 Matthew Russell USA 09:01:35 09:05:23 165
7 Joel Jameson GBR 09:02:30 09:06:19 173
8 Ian Mikelson USA 09:03:40 09:07:29 179
9 Guy Crawford AUS 09:08:41 09:12:32 215
10 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:10:09 09:14:01 229
11 Brendan Halpin USA 09:25:13 09:29:11 348
12 Chris Boudreaux   09:30:22 09:34:23 385
13 Lewis Elliot USA 09:30:52 09:34:53 388
14 Blake Becker USA 09:52:27 09:56:37 534
15 Jim Lubinski USA 10:14:15 10:18:34 671
16 Josh Hadway   n/a unrated n/a

He also has the best odds to won the race, but there are (at least) two Americans that will try to win on home soil:

  • Victor Zyemtsev: 36%
  • Chris Lieto: 25%
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 19%
  • Bryan Rhodes: 5%
  • Matthew Russell: 5%
  • Ian Mikelson: 3%

Victor is not racing often, but when he does, he’s usually very close to the front – he’s won CdA 2005 and 2007 and was second in 2008. It will be interesting to see how the two Americans Chris Lieto and Tim O’Donnell are going to race. For a while Chris was the biggest US hope for winning Kona, “TO” would probably love to take over that designation and race as well as his girlfriend Mirinda Carefrae does. After these three athletes, the winning chances go down quite quickly.

Female Participants

On the female side, the best rated athlete is Kathleen Calkins:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:22:36 09:26:33 10
2 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:25:41 09:29:40 15
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:32:27 09:36:28 27
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:52:09 09:56:19 75
5 Heather Gollnick USA 09:52:34 09:56:44 76
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:53:15 09:57:25 80
7 Whitney Garcia   09:57:27 10:01:39 89
8 Jackie Arendt USA 10:00:52 10:05:05 100
9 Christie Sym AUS 10:01:15 10:05:29 102
10 Haley Cooper USA 10:11:19 10:15:37 144
11 Rachel Kiers CAN 10:13:17 10:17:36 149
12 Amanda McKenzie USA 11:03:02 11:07:42 254
13 Beth Shutt   n/a unrated n/a
14 Trish Deim   n/a unrated n/a
15 Stephanie Ossenbrink   n/a unrated n/a

She was a successful age group racer (even winning her age group in Kona) and has only recently switched to race as a Pro. She only has one pro result so far (a 9:12 in Arizona 2011), so the more experienced pros have better winning odds:

  • Heather Wurtele: 46%
  • Meredith Kessler: 27%
  • Kathleen Calkins: 13%
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 4%
  • Heather Gollnick: 3%
  • Sara Gross: 3%

Heather Wurtele has to be considered the statistical favorite and I’m sure she would like to win her fifth Ironman title (after CdA in 2008, St. George in 2010 and 2011, and Canada 2011). Then again, one shouldn’t underestimate Meredith Kessler: She’s had some issues last year (resulting in a few DNFs), but she’s coming off a recent win in the super-hard IM St. George.

As with the men, there does not seem to be much of a chance for someone outside the three main athletes to win the race.

IM France 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:27:06 08:34:32 23
2 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:36:31 08:44:05 46
3 Francois Chabaud FRA 08:38:50 08:46:26 62
4 Herve Faure FRA 08:44:30 08:52:11 96
5 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:45:40 08:53:22 101
6 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:54:44 09:02:34 148
7 Sergio Marques PRT 08:57:17 09:05:09 162
8 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:57:23 09:05:16 163
9 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:01:45 09:09:41 193
10 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:03:11 09:11:09 205
11 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:03:31 09:11:29 209
12 Jose Jeuland FRA 09:12:46 09:20:52 292
13 Nicholas Peter Munoz ESP 09:15:58 09:24:07 308
14 Scott Defilippis USA 09:16:10 09:24:19 313
15 Marcel Bischof GER 09:28:41 09:37:01 406
16 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:50:53 09:59:33 558
17 Christophe Hamard   10:10:14 10:19:11 674
18 Anthony Pannier   n/a unrated n/a
19 Cedric Lassonde FRA n/a unrated n/a
20 Pierre Dorez   n/a unrated n/a
21 Zoltan Senczyszyn   n/a unrated n/a
22 David Vazquez ESP n/a unrated n/a
23 Ivan Kharin   n/a unrated n/a
24 Lance Armstrong   n/a unrated n/a
25 Ulrik Schaarup   n/a unrated n/a
26 Rafael Gomes   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Gina Crawford NZL 09:27:17 09:35:36 23
2 Tine Deckers BEL 09:28:43 09:37:03 30
3 Kristin Moeller GER 09:43:00 09:51:33 65
4 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:45:07 09:53:41 70
5 Martina Dogana ITA 09:46:05 09:54:40 72
6 Suzanne Blackborrow AUS 10:11:28 10:20:26 158
7 Anne Basso FRA 10:16:46 10:25:48 176

Results for Frederik Van Lierde (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:01:26 08:09:23 08:34:32 3
IM France 2011-06-26 08:28:30 08:32:24 08:41:18 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:31:43 08:32:40 08:43:47 14
IM France 2010-06-27 08:30:39 08:43:34 08:47:01 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:09:38 09:05:06 08:48:18 34
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:26:58 08:42:43 08:41:06 5
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:34:34 08:41:12 08:40:01 9
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:31:35 08:38:34 08:38:34 2

Results for Marcel Zamora (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 08:40:55 08:44:54 08:44:05 3
IM France 2010-06-27 08:25:28 08:38:15 08:43:52 1
IM France 2009-06-28 08:30:06 08:36:24 08:45:19 1
IM France 2008-06-22 08:34:03 08:40:26 08:47:27 1
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:53:39 09:03:35 08:48:59 12
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:46:36 08:46:27 08:45:11 20
IM France 2007-06-24 08:38:45 08:46:01 08:44:49 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:44:46 08:40:47 08:44:23 23
IM France 2006-06-24 08:33:56 08:41:37 08:45:56 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:47:16 08:46:44 08:48:41 25
IM France 2005-06-19 08:50:50 08:50:50 08:50:50 2

Results for Francois Chabaud (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 08:37:18 08:41:16 08:46:26 2
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:23:44 08:43:57 08:49:51 5
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:33:53 08:43:27 08:52:11 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:59:56 08:55:51 08:57:16 37
IM France 2006-06-24 08:53:10 09:01:08 08:58:09 3
IM UK 2005-08-21 09:07:26 08:54:20 08:54:20 2

Results for Herve Faure (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:05:28 09:03:35 08:52:11 7
IM France 2009-06-28 08:40:55 08:47:21 08:46:58 2
IM France 2008-06-22 08:41:40 08:48:09 08:46:45 2
IM France 2006-06-24 08:36:04 08:43:47 08:45:48 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:45:45 08:45:14 08:47:05 22
IM France 2005-06-19 08:49:06 08:49:06 08:49:06 1

Results for Axel Zeebroek (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2012-04-29 09:35:33 08:56:20 08:53:22 3
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:54:06 09:07:30 08:52:41 10
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:58:13 08:59:29 08:48:48 28
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:28:07 08:33:43 08:45:11 6
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:28:52 08:38:59 08:50:08 4
IM UK 2010-08-01 08:49:38 08:56:05 08:56:52 3
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:48:14 08:57:50 08:57:50 13

Results for Trevor Delsaut (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:03:03 08:57:13 09:02:34 5
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:44:03 08:57:12 09:03:48 6
IM France 2011-06-26 08:54:59 08:59:05 09:05:29 6
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:41:57 08:53:40 09:07:23 9
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:32:24 08:42:35 09:12:39 5
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:33:27 08:50:21 09:28:32 7
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:27:44 09:41:11 10:02:30 19
IM France 2008-06-22 10:16:31 10:24:10 10:24:10 20

Results for Sergio Marques (PRT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 09:02:58 08:58:18 09:05:09 3
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:54:14 09:03:03 09:05:52 20
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:18:26 09:19:45 09:06:11 33
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:57:53 09:08:50 09:04:42 16
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:48:01 09:02:09 09:04:14 6
IM France 2011-06-26 08:49:55 08:53:58 09:04:30 5
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:48:57 08:54:47 09:06:00 12
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:09:30 09:21:50 09:07:49 15
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:05:04 09:08:12 09:05:13 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:11:10 09:07:00 09:04:40 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:41:02 09:36:14 09:04:12 60
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:08:38 09:05:50 08:57:35 8
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:47:16 09:45:26 08:55:43 57
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 08:59:16 08:55:43 08:44:04 3
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:23:49 08:38:53 08:40:39 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 08:36:05 08:46:50 08:41:11 7
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:40:32 08:36:35 08:39:03 19
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:31:26 08:32:29 08:40:09 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:43:45 08:43:14 08:44:53 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:46:47 08:46:47 08:46:47 3

Results for Domenico Passuello (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2011-07-31 08:51:52 09:02:52 09:05:16 4
IM France 2011-06-26 09:03:34 09:07:44 09:07:44 7

Results for Sebastian Pedraza (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:16:38 09:22:46 09:09:41 18
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:06:43 09:07:44 09:07:13 44
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 08:33:28 08:39:03 09:07:07 2
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:56:34 09:10:31 09:11:56 13
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 09:03:19 09:15:17 09:12:12 9
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:37:44 08:57:27 09:11:34 11
IM Austria 2008-07-13 09:04:31 09:22:06 09:14:39 22
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 09:05:19 09:14:27 09:12:47 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:56 09:42:46 09:12:16 58
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:33:17 08:43:44 09:01:14 4
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:55:58 09:05:56 09:09:37 10
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:45:46 08:52:20 09:12:10 9
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:35:44 09:35:44 09:35:44 13

Results for Bruno Clerbout (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:47:07 09:00:21 09:11:09 8
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:07:59 08:58:56 09:13:16 3
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:37:12 09:37:39 09:16:30 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:13:33 09:25:53 09:11:04 22
IM France 2010-06-27 08:53:15 09:06:44 09:06:45 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:55:11 08:50:46 09:06:46 24
IM France 2009-06-28 08:58:02 09:04:41 09:13:08 6
IM France 2008-06-22 09:22:52 09:29:51 09:18:01 11
IM France 2007-06-24 08:46:30 08:53:52 09:09:00 4
IM France 2006-06-24 09:20:48 09:29:11 09:29:11 9

Results for Mike Schifferle (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2012-06-17 08:36:53 08:44:39 09:11:29 3
IM Texas 2012-05-19 08:51:57 09:05:15 09:13:29 12
IM St. George 2012-04-29 10:54:44 10:10:07 09:14:08 9
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:01:18 09:14:53 09:09:25 12
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:41:48 08:54:54 09:08:58 20
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:49:01 08:50:16 09:10:12 26
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:23:54 09:14:35 09:12:03 7
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:54:20 09:05:13 09:11:48 15
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:53:57 09:08:14 09:12:30 8
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:53:07 09:13:42 09:13:00 10
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:04:02 09:16:14 09:12:54 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:47:53 08:59:39 09:12:26 11
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:09:02 09:26:14 09:14:16 21
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:58:35 09:00:52 09:12:18 8
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:49:42 08:57:33 09:14:26 8
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:43:51 08:54:55 09:18:10 8
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:54:57 09:12:33 09:24:42 19
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:54:13 09:08:06 09:29:22 12
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:56:20 09:13:39 09:38:00 20
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 10:00:35 09:58:16 09:48:43 20
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:34:59 09:37:21 09:44:18 14
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 09:19:56 09:32:56 09:48:24 15
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 10:03:46 10:08:48 10:08:48 24

Results for Jose Jeuland (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 09:21:08 09:25:26 09:20:52 11
IM France 2010-06-27 09:05:46 09:19:34 09:19:48 6
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:39:51 09:40:16 09:19:51 13
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:26:51 08:47:55 09:15:55 14
IM France 2009-06-28 09:18:38 09:25:32 09:22:31 10
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:51:29 08:58:20 09:21:36 14
IM France 2008-06-22 08:53:34 09:00:12 09:29:36 4
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:59:52 09:58:50 09:42:30 20
IM France 2007-06-24 09:09:14 09:16:56 09:33:43 9
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:53:16 09:50:58 09:50:58 17

Results for Nicholas Peter Munoz (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:02:44 08:58:07 09:24:07 5
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 08:58:55 08:57:04 09:32:31 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:22:35 10:17:26 09:43:53 70
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:12:47 09:09:46 09:31:34 5
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:22:10 09:19:18 09:43:12 13
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 10:06:27 10:04:06 10:07:32 22
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 10:16:37 10:12:07 10:12:07 25

Results for Scott Defilippis (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:16:00 09:11:14 09:24:19 7
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:27:13 08:48:55 09:26:57 8
IM France 2011-06-26 09:26:26 09:30:46 09:35:53 13
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:58:05 09:58:33 09:37:15 15
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:43:35 08:59:59 09:29:52 11
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:53:07 09:48:38 09:42:43 17
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:31:53 09:49:30 09:39:14 16
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:25:00 09:28:23 09:28:23 16

Results for Marcel Bischof (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:58:41 09:48:48 09:37:01 12
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:44:51 09:11:57 09:32:53 12
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:32:47 09:45:38 09:43:20 21
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:27:19 09:39:58 09:41:19 17
IM Germany 2007-07-01 09:28:31 09:44:30 09:44:30 21

Results for Ludovic Le Guellec (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 10:04:45 09:59:33 09:59:33 13

Results for Christophe Hamard ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2009-06-28 10:11:38 10:19:11 10:19:11 18

Results for Anthony Pannier ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Cedric Lassonde (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Pierre Dorez ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Zoltan Senczyszyn ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for David Vazquez (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Ivan Kharin ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Lance Armstrong ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Ulrik Schaarup ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Rafael Gomes ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Gina Crawford (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:11:16 09:20:22 09:35:36 5
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:44:06 09:39:05 09:38:07 1
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:27:26 09:29:50 09:37:56 1
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:11:51 10:07:14 09:39:06 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:28:26 09:35:08 09:34:53 2
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:28:57 09:29:46 09:34:51 1
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:16:52 09:33:25 09:35:49 1
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:18:26 09:26:54 09:36:22 1
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 09:28:27 09:34:41 09:38:30 1
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:57:18 09:18:52 09:39:31 3
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:33:29 09:41:19 09:45:55 5
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:33:46 09:37:32 09:47:42 1
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:37:03 09:36:03 09:53:45 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 10:09:32 10:14:19 10:14:19 5

Results for Tine Deckers (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:28:21 09:29:41 09:37:03 12
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:34:41 09:36:54 09:38:27 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:19:27 09:25:37 09:38:48 5
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:41:31 09:42:36 09:42:14 19
IM France 2010-06-27 09:21:29 09:35:41 09:42:08 1
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:29:58 09:38:33 09:44:23 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:47:00 09:42:09 09:47:17 12
IM France 2009-06-28 09:30:29 09:37:32 09:51:05 1
IM Florida 2006-11-04 10:08:47 10:20:06 10:20:06 13

Results for Kristin Moeller (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 10:07:05 10:17:06 09:51:33 9
IM UK 2011-07-31 09:19:04 09:30:37 09:35:40 1
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:39:43 09:42:10 09:42:10 2

Results for Tamara Kozulina (UKR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:43:37 10:44:07 09:53:41 5
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:28:43 09:46:32 09:43:45 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:12:47 09:29:49 09:43:11 2
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:56:24 09:56:50 09:45:37 4
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:14:15 09:35:22 09:43:21 2
IM Austria 2008-07-13 09:06:42 09:24:21 09:44:55 4
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:34:18 09:38:31 09:49:25 4
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:20:10 09:36:56 09:52:12 5
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:56:16 09:56:06 09:56:38 19
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:41:50 09:52:39 09:56:51 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 10:10:46 10:11:19 09:58:42 9
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:43:50 09:43:15 09:50:26 13
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:58:46 09:58:46 09:58:46 4

Results for Martina Dogana (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 09:45:56 09:50:25 09:54:40 2
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:47:47 10:00:58 09:55:44 8
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:48:13 09:57:05 09:54:06 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:04:45 09:59:45 09:53:10 23
IM France 2009-06-28 09:37:35 09:44:43 09:50:46 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:50:47 09:48:57 09:53:50 15
IM France 2008-06-22 09:35:29 09:42:38 09:57:14 1
IM France 2006-06-24 10:13:59 10:23:09 10:23:09 3

Results for Suzanne Blackborrow (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:50:40 10:00:25 10:20:26 13
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 10:31:51 10:42:17 10:42:17 10

Results for Anne Basso (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 10:33:12 10:26:24 10:25:48 8
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 10:18:53 10:34:25 10:25:31 10
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:37:37 09:55:43 10:19:10 7
IM France 2010-06-27 10:29:18 10:45:12 10:45:12 9

IM Coeur d’Alene 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Victor Zyemtsev USA 08:37:05 08:40:43 36
2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:42:36 08:46:16 59
3 Chris Lieto USA 08:47:20 08:51:02 91
4 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:54:55 08:58:41 126
5 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:55:22 08:59:08 128
6 Matthew Russell USA 09:01:35 09:05:23 165
7 Joel Jameson GBR 09:02:30 09:06:19 173
8 Ian Mikelson USA 09:03:40 09:07:29 179
9 Guy Crawford AUS 09:08:41 09:12:32 215
10 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:10:09 09:14:01 229
11 Brendan Halpin USA 09:25:13 09:29:11 348
12 Chris Boudreaux   09:30:22 09:34:23 385
13 Lewis Elliot USA 09:30:52 09:34:53 388
14 Blake Becker USA 09:52:27 09:56:37 534
15 Jim Lubinski USA 10:14:15 10:18:34 671
16 Josh Hadway   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Kathleen Calkins   09:22:36 09:26:33 10
2 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:25:41 09:29:40 15
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:32:27 09:36:28 27
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:52:09 09:56:19 75
5 Heather Gollnick USA 09:52:34 09:56:44 76
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:53:15 09:57:25 80
7 Whitney Garcia   09:57:27 10:01:39 89
8 Jackie Arendt USA 10:00:52 10:05:05 100
9 Christie Sym AUS 10:01:15 10:05:29 102
10 Haley Cooper USA 10:11:19 10:15:37 144
11 Rachel Kiers CAN 10:13:17 10:17:36 149
12 Amanda McKenzie USA 11:03:02 11:07:42 254
13 Beth Shutt   n/a unrated n/a
14 Trish Deim   n/a unrated n/a
15 Stephanie Ossenbrink   n/a unrated n/a

Results for Victor Zyemtsev (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:14:36 08:27:01 08:40:43 3
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:32:28 08:40:26 08:45:36 1
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 08:25:27 08:28:28 08:47:20 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 08:43:56 08:47:40 08:53:40 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:18:27 09:18:17 08:55:34 41
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:33:32 08:35:36 08:47:42 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:38:26 09:34:03 08:53:18 59
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 08:38:18 08:31:28 08:28:05 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 08:23:29 08:23:29 08:23:29 1

Results for Timothy O’Donnell (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:59:36 09:13:09 08:46:16 28
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:09:50 08:15:14 08:15:14 2

Results for Chris Lieto (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:10:26 09:11:44 08:51:02 29
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:35:00 09:47:49 08:45:38 29
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:25:51 08:26:47 08:29:59 11
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:22:56 08:18:47 08:31:00 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:19:25 08:25:51 08:34:54 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:57:56 08:56:15 08:37:52 26
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:25:49 08:25:40 08:29:19 6
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:27:37 08:23:46 08:31:16 9
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:41:34 08:41:03 08:36:23 18
IM Canada 2005-08-29 08:33:32 08:31:32 08:31:32 1

Results for Anton Blokhin (UKR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:30:57 08:57:20 08:58:41 7
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:43:17 09:00:30 09:00:30 12

Results for Kevin Taddonio (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:45:51 08:59:03 08:59:08 22
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:35:30 08:59:14 08:59:14 13

Results for Matthew Russell (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2012-05-19 08:42:50 08:55:54 09:05:23 9
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:29:19 08:42:07 09:07:11 12
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:43:51 08:45:05 09:12:04 23
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:59:31 09:03:45 09:18:24 7
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:26:26 09:28:37 09:22:40 9
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:03:06 09:09:05 09:20:18 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:09:15 09:21:30 09:27:05 20
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:28:58 09:33:12 09:33:12 13

Results for Joel Jameson (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:59:28 09:08:22 09:06:19 23
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:35:31 08:57:34 09:05:13 11
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:01:48 08:57:11 09:12:32 4
IM UK 2005-08-21 10:48:13 10:32:42 10:32:42 12

Results for Ian Mikelson (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:48:40 08:49:55 09:07:29 24
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:12:42 09:14:50 09:12:17 6
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:41:18 08:52:55 09:11:25 8
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:10:38 09:12:58 09:18:45 11
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:15:58 09:20:06 09:22:13 7
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:20:07 09:25:07 09:25:07 12

Results for Guy Crawford (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:10:50 09:19:55 09:12:32 13
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:50:28 09:02:41 09:02:41 9

Results for Bryan Rhodes (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:23:24 09:27:49 09:14:01 15
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 10:18:40 10:23:16 09:10:08 25
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:53:35 08:51:55 08:51:09 22
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:30:12 08:36:43 08:51:01 1
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:26:52 08:42:02 08:54:06 3
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:36:07 09:42:29 08:56:34 21
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:46:38 08:48:45 08:45:33 5
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:59:13 08:55:08 08:44:36 36
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:00:18 08:53:10 08:41:11 6
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:34:25 08:36:39 08:35:58 4
IM UK 2005-08-21 08:42:11 08:29:41 08:35:35 1
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:42:01 08:42:01 08:42:01 3

Results for Brendan Halpin (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:04:36 09:18:16 09:29:11 13
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:17:13 09:17:22 09:33:20 6
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:34:19 09:40:11 09:42:14 11
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:36:40 09:41:17 09:44:30 23
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:48:09 09:50:31 09:50:31 20

Results for Chris Boudreaux ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:20:19 09:34:23 09:34:23 36

Results for Lewis Elliot (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:38:13 08:51:14 09:34:53 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:51:45 09:57:48 09:44:27 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:10:54 09:23:11 09:41:13 21
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:46:20 10:56:23 09:45:51 28
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:00:14 09:10:03 09:23:29 15
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:22:43 09:26:43 09:28:04 10
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:29:08 09:33:19 09:28:27 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:41:31 09:41:21 09:26:35 54
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:53:51 08:56:59 09:19:12 8
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:44:10 09:45:23 09:36:12 25
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:23:58 09:23:58 09:23:58 14

Results for Blake Becker (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:44:24 10:44:34 09:56:37 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:05:04 09:17:13 09:46:57 17
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:55:44 08:58:00 09:52:36 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:39:16 09:57:07 10:04:35 17
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:01:56 10:00:01 10:06:08 17
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:35:12 10:33:13 10:07:39 65
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 10:16:55 10:17:33 10:01:38 18
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:26:30 09:30:32 09:56:55 11
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:38:15 09:37:15 10:07:08 16
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 09:53:12 09:56:41 10:20:29 19
IM Florida 2006-11-04 10:35:27 10:47:16 10:36:12 34
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 10:37:51 10:20:49 10:20:49 20

Results for Jim Lubinski (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 10:49:07 10:51:52 10:18:34 19
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:55:30 10:02:31 09:57:48 12
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:47:36 09:52:19 09:52:19 25

Results for Josh Hadway ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Kathleen Calkins ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:12:40 09:26:33 09:26:33 7

Results for Heather Wurtele (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:17:56 09:19:15 09:29:40 8
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:19:03 09:21:13 09:31:38 1
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:30:33 09:30:59 09:33:53 1
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:19:10 09:31:38 09:34:37 5
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:17:17 09:25:57 09:35:29 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:35:26 09:31:05 09:39:00 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:34:24 09:39:32 09:42:59 3
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:39:51 09:47:15 09:45:13 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:38:58 09:43:05 09:43:05 1

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2012-04-29 10:12:59 09:31:12 09:36:28 1
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:00:14 09:13:48 09:37:20 3
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:50:45 09:50:54 09:41:18 2
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:37:22 09:41:54 09:39:28 3
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:15:01 09:27:23 09:38:55 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:04:02 10:05:09 09:41:32 26
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:13:46 09:22:23 09:34:52 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:23:52 09:29:54 09:39:34 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:46:58 09:42:32 09:44:56 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:37:09 09:47:39 09:47:39 7

Results for Sara Gross (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2012-05-27 09:35:08 09:57:07 09:56:19 4
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:56:29 10:11:27 09:56:11 6
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:18:03 09:32:04 09:53:35 8
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:46:56 09:51:32 09:57:57 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:42:08 10:47:17 09:59:27 13
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:44:46 09:59:03 09:52:10 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:06:10 10:04:17 09:51:02 20
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:41:31 09:48:57 09:48:56 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:03:45 10:08:03 09:48:55 4
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:24:41 09:41:35 09:44:56 7
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:43:34 09:45:27 09:45:38 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:24:06 09:35:51 09:45:41 4
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:33:09 09:44:49 09:48:47 5
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 09:15:33 09:23:17 09:50:31 2
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:12:35 10:11:37 10:07:18 5
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:03:55 10:01:34 10:01:34 6

Results for Heather Gollnick (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:32:09 10:32:19 09:56:44 7
IM France 2011-06-26 10:18:13 10:22:57 09:50:59 8
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:22:13 09:39:32 09:45:16 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:04:58 09:59:58 09:45:59 24
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:31:42 09:45:40 09:44:01 3
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 09:56:55 09:52:59 09:43:47 2
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:50:34 09:54:46 09:42:34 2
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:32:07 09:36:19 09:40:48 3
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:40:48 09:40:38 09:41:31 11
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 09:23:25 09:25:12 09:41:39 1
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 09:36:40 09:40:03 09:44:36 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:28:16 09:32:44 09:45:28 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:43:42 09:39:17 09:48:23 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 09:36:39 09:37:10 09:50:44 2
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:33:25 09:34:36 09:54:56 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:59:55 09:59:19 10:03:17 23
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:01:47 09:56:48 10:05:30 3
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 10:14:57 10:14:57 10:14:57 6

Results for Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:43:37 09:53:15 09:57:25 6
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:39:44 09:47:14 09:58:00 1
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:40:01 09:41:29 09:59:32 4
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 09:19:44 09:32:37 10:02:12 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:19:31 10:20:40 10:06:55 34
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:53:39 09:58:04 10:04:26 4
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:19:45 10:17:37 10:05:44 5
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 10:18:12 10:25:29 10:02:53 7
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:45:53 10:03:18 09:56:15 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:20:06 09:27:45 09:53:37 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:56 10:00:46 10:01:09 24
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:37:00 09:40:53 10:01:18 4
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 09:27:05 09:34:58 10:10:15 4
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 10:51:14 10:46:29 10:33:29 5
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 10:16:40 10:16:40 10:16:40 2

Results for Whitney Garcia ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:40:22 09:54:57 10:01:39 13
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:03:53 10:04:02 10:05:42 3
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:04:29 10:07:57 11:13:09 4
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 12:25:53 12:34:00 12:34:00 11

Results for Jackie Arendt (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:21:02 10:22:30 10:05:05 22
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 09:40:28 09:51:28 09:58:50 2
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:56:21 09:58:39 10:02:44 4
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:06:36 10:07:04 10:07:04 2

Results for Christie Sym (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2012-05-19 09:55:56 10:10:50 10:05:29 7
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:49:09 09:58:24 10:03:23 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 10:36:57 10:39:20 10:05:30 2
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:41:30 09:50:33 09:44:38 5
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:20:41 09:37:21 09:37:21 2

Results for Haley Cooper (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2011-08-28 10:34:41 10:39:40 10:15:37 6
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:56:21 10:02:27 10:10:44 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:42:02 09:48:16 10:12:43 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:23:19 10:18:10 10:18:04 33
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:53:35 09:58:21 10:18:03 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:51:11 09:56:28 10:23:16 4
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:45:59 09:53:32 10:32:16 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 11:23:33 11:21:25 11:04:08 41
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:08:04 10:12:23 10:55:59 5
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 10:42:57 10:45:32 11:29:11 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 12:26:37 12:27:17 12:27:17 24

Results for Rachel Kiers (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 10:16:33 10:30:18 10:17:36 14
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:06:22 10:15:48 10:14:59 9
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 10:03:48 10:10:16 10:14:47 8
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:45:26 09:56:05 10:16:07 9
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:45:04 10:50:14 10:22:41 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:53:43 09:59:01 10:10:28 5
IM Canada 2008-08-24 10:04:47 10:12:30 10:18:46 9
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:25:05 10:27:06 10:27:06 12

Results for Amanda McKenzie (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 11:24:12 11:31:01 11:07:42 8
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:37:24 11:02:00 11:00:17 11
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:33:12 10:53:14 10:59:45 11
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:41:45 10:45:35 11:01:45 10
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:09:38 10:32:51 11:07:01 9
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:13:05 11:21:41 11:18:53 16
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:53:05 11:02:01 11:17:30 13
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:14 10:58:21 11:29:01 19
IM UK 2005-08-21 12:41:57 12:23:43 12:23:43 8

Results for Beth Shutt ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Trish Deim ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Stephanie Ossenbrink ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Regensburg 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Regensburg is one of the younger Ironman races. the first time it was held in 2010. The first finisher Faris Al-Sultan posted a time of 8:13:37 which is still the course record. Last year’s winners were Markus Fachbach in 8:29:16 and Mary-Beth Ellis in course record time of 9:18:55. The race used to be a bit later in the year (it was held in August), now it is at a better point in the year to validate the requirement of an Ironman during the year for a Kona spot. Regensburg is a pretty quick course (course rating of 10:04, similar to Texas and Cozumel – the move to June should make the course probably even quicker), but it is only a 1.000 points race.

Male Participants

On the men’s side, Dirk Bockel is the clear favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:16:19 08:25:45 8
2 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:47:17 08:57:18 118
3 Flo Kriegl AUT 08:47:55 08:57:57 123
4 Andreas Wolpert GER 09:07:15 09:17:39 260
5 Rene Vallant AUT 09:15:33 09:26:06 327
6 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:18:13 09:28:49 346
7 Craig Twigg GBR 09:21:25 09:32:05 376
8 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:39:20 09:50:20 498
9 Jens Kaiser   n/a unrated n/a
10 Tomas Mika   n/a unrated n/a
11 Joan Gómez   n/a unrated n/a
12 Florian Kratz   n/a unrated n/a
13 Michael Raelert   n/a unrated n/a
14 Vincent Rieß   n/a unrated n/a

The only real competition he faces does not come from second.ranked Petr Vabrousek (who will no doubt finish with a strong run and under 9 hours), but from Michael Raelert who will start his first full Ironman. It is next to impossible to predict how he will finish – and all my formulas won’t help as he hasn’t posted an Ironman time yet. One thing is obvious: If he finishes, he will be quicker than his brother Andreas last year who jogged it in and finished with a 10:21 just to finish and validate his Kona slot. But what is possible for him? Andreas Raelert won his first Ironman race (Arizona 2008) with a time of 8:14. Arizona is a little bit slower than Regensburg, so if Michael manages a similar performance, he is just around the course record time of Faris and very close to Dirk Bockel’s potential.

Female Participants

The female field consists of just two names:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Monika Stadlmann AUT 10:33:40 10:45:42 219
2 Heidi Sessner   n/a unrated n/a

Hopefully, some additional athletes are going to start – after all it will be an almost guaranteed pay day!

IM Regensburg 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:16:19 08:25:45 8
2 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:47:17 08:57:18 118
3 Flo Kriegl AUT 08:47:55 08:57:57 123
4 Andreas Wolpert GER 09:07:15 09:17:39 260
5 Rene Vallant AUT 09:15:33 09:26:06 327
6 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:18:13 09:28:49 346
7 Craig Twigg GBR 09:21:25 09:32:05 376
8 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:39:20 09:50:20 498
9 Jens Kaiser   n/a unrated n/a
10 Tomas Mika   n/a unrated n/a
11 Joan Gómez   n/a unrated n/a
12 Florian Kratz   n/a unrated n/a
13 Michael Raelert   n/a unrated n/a
14 Vincent Rieß   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Monika Stadlmann AUT 10:33:40 10:45:42 219
2 Heidi Sessner   n/a unrated n/a

Results for Dirk Bockel (LUX)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:12:58 08:14:08 08:25:45 4
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:21:23 08:37:06 08:30:18 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:22:59 08:23:55 08:27:24 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:29:55 08:25:42 08:29:54 7
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:27:12 08:34:54 08:34:54 3

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 08:40:00 08:45:11 08:57:18 5
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 09:07:30 09:02:48 08:57:50 6
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:09:57 09:04:02 08:57:36 6
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:29:25 08:37:50 08:57:19 13
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:15:21 09:10:35 08:58:13 6
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:08 08:43:38 08:57:39 6
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:13:42 09:15:00 08:58:18 30
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:37:59 08:43:42 08:57:31 9
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:11:11 09:11:37 08:58:07 9
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:40:36 08:52:17 08:57:31 8
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 08:59:52 08:57:45 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:27:44 09:29:52 08:57:39 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:39:52 08:50:12 08:56:09 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:45:58 08:56:25 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 08:57:26 08:56:56 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:47:21 08:56:55 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:50:28 08:57:24 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:36:15 08:52:35 08:57:45 6
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:09:43 09:05:34 08:58:02 6
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:00:55 08:57:37 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:57:08 09:13:06 08:57:27 10
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 08:47:10 08:56:37 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:18:24 08:57:08 48
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:06:41 08:55:55 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:10:48 08:55:17 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:35:38 08:54:21 10
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:37:18 08:49:56 08:55:32 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:47:29 08:55:54 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 08:50:24 08:56:28 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:34:42 08:56:52 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:42:09 08:58:24 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:03:00 08:59:34 31
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 08:53:43 08:59:18 2
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:53:05 09:05:43 08:59:44 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:53:58 09:02:55 08:59:15 4
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:11:11 09:14:11 08:58:55 11
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:13:13 08:57:32 6
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:27:15 08:43:37 08:56:03 10
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:09:02 08:57:17 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:42:16 08:56:01 56
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 10:58:00 11:00:05 08:50:31 22
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:22:31 08:36:38 08:50:31 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:40:42 08:51:18 08:52:14 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 08:45:03 08:52:21 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:47:31 08:53:28 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:06:35 08:54:30 47
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:56:02 08:52:17 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 08:45:59 08:51:30 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:40:31 08:52:48 3
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:36:05 08:38:20 08:56:27 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:11:44 09:33:57 50
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:00:54 09:42:05 23
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:06:45 09:06:45 08:58:25 6
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Flo Kriegl (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:44:46 08:57:57 08:57:57 21

Results for Andreas Wolpert (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:13:57 09:14:06 09:17:39 5
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:44:37 09:11:42 09:18:40 11
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:53:53 09:12:45 09:21:19 14
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:23:15 09:20:22 09:24:46 14
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:56:33 09:18:05 09:26:33 20
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 09:37:22 09:34:45 09:30:31 17
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:58:43 09:20:32 09:27:03 20
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:53:49 09:37:57 09:37:57 14

Results for Rene Vallant (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 08:56:50 09:08:54 09:26:06 6
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:23:18 09:33:33 09:34:45 23
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:20:08 09:34:42 09:35:17 15
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:22:48 09:30:03 09:35:41 30
IM Florida 2005-11-05 10:02:55 10:07:18 09:42:47 29
IM Austria 2005-07-03 09:15:43 09:15:43 09:15:43 23

Results for Paul Hawkins (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2011-07-31 09:03:41 09:14:55 09:28:49 7
IM France 2010-06-27 14:16:23 14:38:02 09:42:44 19
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:28:35 09:25:29 09:42:44 10
IM UK 2008-09-07 10:06:40 10:05:06 12:28:41 12
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 14:00:55 14:22:07 14:24:48 25
IM France 2006-06-24 14:15:35 14:28:22 14:28:22 23

Results for Craig Twigg (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:10:48 09:04:53 09:32:05 7
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:10:01 09:22:21 09:52:12 16
IM UK 2010-08-01 10:21:02 10:28:36 10:28:36 9

Results for Matjaz Kovac (SVN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wales 2011-09-11 10:22:11 10:11:55 09:50:20 15
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:09:08 09:21:28 09:47:49 10
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:34:50 09:46:33 09:51:11 24
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 10:07:28 10:21:00 09:51:52 33
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:32:03 09:34:28 09:47:54 15
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:40:45 09:44:05 09:49:53 11
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 09:11:55 09:20:06 09:50:52 11
IM Austria 2010-07-04 09:29:03 09:47:46 09:57:03 30
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:16:55 10:14:47 09:59:20 20
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:16:22 09:20:50 09:54:33 14
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:04:22 10:04:48 10:05:51 16
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:45:36 09:42:36 10:06:21 23
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:11:43 10:08:57 10:26:38 31
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 11:03:01 10:58:11 10:58:11 34

Results for Jens Kaiser ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Tomas Mika ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Joan Gómez ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Florian Kratz ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michael Raelert ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Vincent Rieß ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Monika Stadlmann (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2011-07-31 10:37:06 10:50:16 10:45:42 6
IM Austria 2011-07-03 09:53:56 10:24:36 10:44:24 11
IM Austria 2009-07-05 11:45:45 12:07:40 10:51:58 13
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:52:26 10:50:24 10:31:13 37
IM UK 2008-09-07 10:35:27 10:33:48 10:25:44 5
IM France 2008-06-22 10:36:13 10:44:07 10:22:37 7
IM Austria 2007-07-08 10:02:11 10:14:44 10:10:23 10
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:58:05 10:11:01 10:07:05 12
IM Austria 2005-07-03 10:01:46 10:01:46 10:01:46 7

Results for Heidi Sessner ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

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