IM Switzerland 2011 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SWI 08:23:20 08:34:22 14
2 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:23:58 08:35:01 17
3 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:30:44 08:41:56 27
4 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:31:54 08:43:07 31
5 Swen Sundberg GER 08:35:12 08:46:29 42
6 Stefan Riesen SWI 08:36:35 08:47:54 51
7 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:40:17 08:51:41 79
8 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:41:13 08:52:38 84
9 Christian Brader GER 08:51:35 09:03:14 131
10 Sergio Marques PRT 08:53:51 09:05:33 138
11 Erich Kunz SUI 08:54:54 09:06:37 144
12 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:05:17 09:17:14 215
13 Bo Ballegaard DNK 09:06:01 09:17:59 225
14 Rafael Wyss SWI 09:06:27 09:18:26 228
15 Ueli Bieler SUI 09:10:28 09:22:32 260
16 Daniel Muller GER 09:24:26 09:36:48 347
17 Scott Defilippis USA 09:25:22 09:37:45 352
18 Damien Landon FRA 09:27:41 09:40:07 373
19 Juha Laitinen FIN 10:10:38 10:24:01 632
20 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:44:15 11:59:41 789
21 Massimiliano Sansone ITA n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Karin Thuerig SWI 09:11:26 09:23:31 8
2 Amy Marsh USA 09:21:33 09:33:51 14
3 Erika Csomor HUN 09:22:04 09:34:23 15
4 Simone Benz SWI 09:54:06 10:07:07 93
5 Jana Candrova CZE 10:17:58 10:31:31 174
6 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:37:35 10:51:33 214
7 Regula Rohrbach SUI n/a unrated n/a
8 Anja Ippach GER n/a unrated n/a
9 Megumi Shigaki JPN n/a unrated n/a
10 Kathrin Mannweiler GER n/a unrated n/a

Results for Ronnie Schildknecht (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:32:51 08:35:36 08:34:22 15
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:12:40 08:23:14 08:34:06 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:49:15 08:47:09 08:36:48 18
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:20:00 08:32:40 08:34:15 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:21:46 08:21:30 08:34:43 4
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:16:05 08:29:34 08:50:47 1
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 08:24:58 08:37:34 08:58:16 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:34:35 08:32:13 09:05:32 15
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 08:37:36 08:49:47 09:19:07 3
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:56:15 08:54:57 09:36:36 8
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 10:21:59 10:27:10 10:27:10 26

Results for Daniel Fontana (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:18:51 08:29:49 08:35:01 4
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:33:48 08:41:52 08:41:52 3

Results for Cyril Viennot (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:30:42 08:41:56 08:41:56 5

Results for Mathias Hecht (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:32:03 08:34:05 08:43:07 1
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:45:36 08:49:13 08:44:43 3
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:28:53 08:36:52 08:43:48 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:37:29 08:35:26 08:45:06 13
IM Germany 2009-07-05 08:11:56 08:28:27 08:46:58 5
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:08:03 09:13:08 08:50:57 12
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:34:02 08:33:45 08:45:23 8
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:56:33 08:56:08 08:48:38 3
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:42:47 08:47:18 08:45:58 3
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 08:32:47 08:45:35 08:45:20 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:54:16 08:51:48 08:45:10 34
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 08:26:01 08:37:55 08:37:55 1

Results for Swen Sundberg (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:33:44 08:49:13 08:46:29 10
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:29:18 08:40:13 08:45:45 2
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:07:50 08:28:59 08:47:33 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:26:52 08:45:22 08:53:30 6
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:30:47 08:52:32 08:56:24 8
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:57:37 08:58:29 08:58:16 27
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:14:41 09:16:24 08:58:08 9
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:30:07 08:32:19 08:32:19 4

Results for Stefan Riesen (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:53:39 08:56:17 08:47:54 4
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:37:10 08:48:15 08:45:48 4
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:31:10 08:44:07 08:45:01 2
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:32:10 08:46:05 08:45:18 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:38:35 08:39:25 08:45:03 16
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:41:39 08:40:26 08:46:53 3
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:40:32 08:39:16 08:49:20 4
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:38:49 08:38:36 08:53:22 16
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 08:40:07 08:44:27 09:01:25 4
IM Lanzarote 2005-06-04 09:18:57 09:18:57 09:18:57 4

Results for Clemente Alonso-McKernan (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:48:53 08:46:47 08:51:41 17
IM France 2009-06-28 08:48:59 08:57:00 08:57:00 4

Results for Mike Aigroz (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:42:06 08:44:11 08:52:38 5
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:34:24 08:45:26 08:56:02 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:18:34 09:16:21 09:01:03 46
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:40:17 08:44:58 08:51:48 2
IM France 2008-06-22 08:56:43 09:01:26 09:01:26 6

Results for Christian Brader (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:08:19 09:10:30 09:03:14 8
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:33:43 08:36:29 09:02:09 16
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:32:41 08:42:44 09:05:54 2
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 10:23:03 10:45:24 09:22:51 24
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:14:42 09:10:12 09:09:43 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:57:39 08:55:31 09:09:37 26
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:56:35 08:56:41 09:12:07 2
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:21:47 09:19:01 09:15:12 12
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:03:56 10:09:32 09:14:18 20
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:50:08 08:49:51 08:58:13 19
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:58:10 08:57:45 09:01:04 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:06:16 09:07:09 09:02:36 35
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:51:09 09:05:05 08:59:53 12
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:56:01 08:53:33 08:53:33 37

Results for Sergio Marques (PRT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 08:49:55 08:55:01 09:05:33 5
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:48:57 08:56:56 09:07:23 12
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:09:30 09:21:35 09:09:30 15
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:11:10 09:06:42 09:06:33 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:41:02 09:38:44 09:06:30 63
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:08:38 09:05:56 08:58:41 8
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:47:16 09:46:57 08:56:41 66
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:23:49 08:39:10 08:41:27 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 08:36:05 08:48:01 08:42:08 7
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:40:32 08:38:08 08:39:54 19
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:31:26 08:33:39 08:40:42 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:43:45 08:43:32 08:45:02 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:46:47 08:46:47 08:46:47 3

Results for Erich Kunz (SUI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:55:08 09:06:37 09:06:37 10

Results for Mike Schifferle (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:53:07 09:15:20 09:17:14 10
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:04:02 09:16:00 09:17:27 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:47:53 09:00:57 09:17:37 11
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:09:02 09:25:35 09:19:36 22
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:58:35 09:01:14 09:18:48 8
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:43:51 08:55:05 09:21:23 7
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:54:57 09:15:19 09:25:43 19
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:08:49 09:06:39 09:27:43 34
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:54:13 09:07:45 09:31:38 12
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:21:13 09:20:55 09:36:37 53
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:56:20 09:15:17 09:39:47 20
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:28:17 09:29:12 09:45:29 57
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 10:00:35 09:58:22 09:49:14 20
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:41:45 09:50:42 09:46:52 31
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:51:31 09:48:48 09:45:47 77
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:34:59 09:37:59 09:44:36 15
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 09:19:56 09:33:07 09:48:30 15
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 10:03:46 10:08:48 10:08:48 24

Results for Bo Ballegaard (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:25:35 09:21:19 09:17:59 10
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:52:33 09:11:59 09:14:22 16
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:54:13 09:16:58 09:16:58 17

Results for Rafael Wyss (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:05:41 09:01:34 09:18:26 8
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:47:16 08:58:34 09:21:45 8
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:11:28 09:10:03 09:26:01 10
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:50:16 09:03:42 09:29:24 8
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:41:55 09:39:03 09:34:30 20
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:28:35 09:34:16 09:33:25 25
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:09:39 09:24:35 09:33:14 13
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 09:46:04 09:43:17 09:35:46 22
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:00:31 09:14:00 09:32:48 9
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:41:33 09:39:25 09:40:59 10
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 09:18:48 09:31:57 09:42:07 14
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 09:50:38 09:55:33 09:55:33 19

Results for Ueli Bieler (SUI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 09:12:39 09:24:30 09:22:32 17
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:50:24 09:03:51 09:21:32 9
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:11:17 09:26:15 09:32:26 15
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:19:58 09:33:57 09:37:46 15
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 09:39:36 09:44:26 09:44:26 17

Results for Daniel Muller (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:15:12 09:14:46 09:36:48 10
IM France 2009-06-28 09:23:49 09:32:21 09:43:15 11
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:42:47 08:56:59 09:47:22 4
IM Austria 2008-07-13 09:32:17 09:52:30 10:23:19 25
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 11:14:05 11:30:55 11:39:37 24
IM France 2007-06-24 08:56:00 09:05:07 10:39:33 5
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 11:48:55 11:54:49 11:54:49 30

Results for Scott Defilippis (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 09:26:26 09:31:53 09:37:45 13
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:58:05 10:00:28 09:39:37 15
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:43:35 08:59:22 09:30:24 12
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:53:07 09:48:18 09:49:39 17
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:31:53 09:51:12 09:51:12 17

Results for Damien Landon (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:48:51 09:44:25 09:40:07 12
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:51:20 10:09:09 09:38:45 32
IM France 2010-06-27 09:13:56 09:28:34 09:27:27 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:26:51 09:24:36 09:26:54 55
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:40:28 09:40:09 09:28:29 61
IM France 2008-06-22 09:10:56 09:15:46 09:15:46 8

Results for Juha Laitinen (FIN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:25:37 10:24:01 10:24:01 22

Results for Marek Nemcik (SVK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2011-07-03 10:53:08 11:22:07 11:59:41 19
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 12:21:51 12:35:23 12:17:22 13
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 12:13:01 12:30:18 12:08:50 28
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:48:33 11:12:13 11:52:13 43
IM Florida 2007-11-03 12:22:51 12:45:29 12:45:29 57

Results for Massimiliano Sansone (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Karin Thuerig (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:22:48 09:25:50 09:23:31 6
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 09:00:04 09:11:39 09:22:08 1
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 09:52:45 09:48:18 09:35:26 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:38:59 09:38:45 09:27:31 12
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 09:10:51 09:15:26 09:15:26 1

Results for Amy Marsh (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:07:49 09:30:39 09:33:51 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:28:19 09:31:22 09:35:17 11
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:27:30 09:33:01 09:37:38 2
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:43:59 09:43:32 09:43:32 1

Results for Erika Csomor (HUN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:51:10 09:14:44 09:34:23 2
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:22:38 09:36:33 09:37:09 6
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:14:40 09:31:23 09:37:14 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:39:53 09:43:00 09:38:07 17
IM France 2010-06-27 09:36:08 09:51:22 09:37:16 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:08:25 10:06:01 09:34:34 26
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:59:42 09:23:06 09:28:44 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:24:49 09:24:31 09:29:55 4
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:47:05 09:09:32 09:31:00 2
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:14:49 09:19:52 09:35:58 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:39:47 09:40:43 09:40:24 10
IM Lake Placid 2007-07-22 09:53:44 09:48:57 09:40:18 3
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 09:09:32 09:33:12 09:36:43 4
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:27:47 09:41:22 09:39:07 4
IM Australia 2006-05-11 09:39:12 09:36:47 09:36:47 4

Results for Simone Benz (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:31:21 09:43:55 10:07:07 7
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:53:21 11:06:10 10:15:40 16
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 09:29:44 09:41:57 09:53:05 4
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:32:57 09:47:28 10:01:39 6
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 10:04:08 10:20:33 10:20:33 7

Results for Jana Candrova (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:32:25 10:32:33 10:31:31 9
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 10:14:34 10:29:02 10:29:02 7

Results for Miranda Alldritt (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 10:56:48 11:03:07 10:51:33 11
IM Texas 2011-05-21 10:19:12 10:28:33 10:50:02 14
IM St. George 2011-05-07 11:51:45 11:54:35 10:53:09 8
IM Canada 2010-08-29 12:47:12 13:02:15 10:42:52 18
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:40:59 10:35:47 10:42:52 7
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:53:01 10:07:00 10:43:52 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 13:39:19 13:47:17 10:49:11 14
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:18:02 10:29:40 10:49:11 10
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 10:06:24 10:13:03 10:51:47 12
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 10:54:52 10:55:36 10:57:12 12
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:21:23 11:28:12 10:57:27 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:18:14 10:24:18 10:52:01 8
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:21:42 10:27:22 10:57:37 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:43:58 10:45:00 11:04:44 48
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 10:16:31 10:20:08 11:09:48 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 11:15:34 11:14:30 11:23:59 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 11:22:19 11:22:25 11:26:57 19
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 11:27:13 11:26:56 11:28:53 55
IM Canada 2005-08-29 11:19:15 11:17:43 11:29:55 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 11:42:45 11:42:45 11:42:45 5

Results for Regula Rohrbach (SUI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Anja Ippach (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Megumi Shigaki (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Kathrin Mannweiler (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Austria 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, Austria was very fast with an adjustment of 23:57. The weather added to a great environment for record times.

Male Results

Of course, the big news this weekend was Marino setting a new world record time. It’s a good thing he set this in a WTC event, so at least we won’t get the annoying corporate speak of “Ironman world record” and “Ironman-distance world best”:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 07:45:58 07:59:43
2 Michael Weiss AUT 07:57:39 08:15:01
3 Marko Albert EST 08:08:17 n/a
4 Tom Lowe GBR 08:11:30 08:01:33
5 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:16:47 08:27:11
6 Jozsef Major HUN 08:28:15 08:25:32
7 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:30:57 08:39:04
8 Dorian Wagner GER 08:37:01 n/a
9 Ernst Moser AUT 08:37:10 08:43:12
10 Lukas Vrobel CZE 08:39:56 08:57:03
11 Andreas Wolpert GER 08:44:37 08:57:04
12 Marcel Bischof GER 08:44:51 09:17:22
13 Dominik Berger AUT 08:45:32 08:39:59
14 Michal Kulich SVK 08:53:43 n/a
15 Jules Hatcher GBR 08:55:15 n/a
16 Jerzy Kasemier NLD 09:04:22 09:32:49
17 Paul Westwood NZL 09:43:43 08:54:51
18 Gergely Nagy HUN 10:11:56 10:08:02
19 Marek Nemcik SVK 10:53:08 11:44:39

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

With his great time Marino moved up in the rankings to the second spot (passing Chris McCormack) and probably has to be considered the Kona favorite at this point. (After all, Andreas hasn’t even qualified yet.)

There were a number of other notable results. Michi Weiss also went sub-8, improved his place in the rankings and is close to breaking the TOP 10 now (13th with a rating of 8:33). Marko Albert posted a great first Ironman result, and Tom Lowe posted another great result after his first race in Arizona and a missing South Africa because of an injury. He is also in the TOP 10 ratings now (8th with a rating of 8:29).  

Female Results

There were a couple more great results on the women’s side with four athlete’s going sub-9:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 08:43:34 n/a
2 Erika Csomor HUN 08:51:10 09:11:32
3 Diana Riesler GER 08:53:34 09:22:00
4 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 08:56:11 09:17:46
5 Eva Dollinger AUT 09:05:13 09:26:50
6 Simone Helfenschneider-Ofner AUT 09:11:36 n/a
7 Joyce Wolfe IRL 09:15:42 n/a
8 Nicole Woysch GER 09:23:31 10:03:21
9 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 09:30:15 10:33:15
10 Kristin Lie NOR 09:31:44 09:49:06
11 Monika Stadlmann AUT 09:53:56 10:21:05
12 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:39:08 09:45:48

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Mary Beth Ellis won her first IM posting a new rookie record. The next athletes also soundly beat their expected times. The results were really fast, especially considering that only Erika Csomor is actually rated in the TOP 20 (13th at 9:34).

IM Korea 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

In the past, the times in Korea were pretty slow – and I mentioned that this was at least partly caused by long courses. This year, the adjustment of 6:47 was just a normal number – not crazy fast, but still a little bit faster than IM Hawaii.

Male Results

The athlete who registered for almost every official Ironman race (he was registered for Korea and Austria on the same day!) actually started in Korea and managed to win his first IM improving by quite a bit on his expected time:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:48:21 09:05:52
2 Andreas Venhorst GER 08:58:46 08:59:01
3 Bevan McKinnon NZL 09:03:50 09:02:52
4 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:18:12 09:14:23
5 Justin Granger AUS 09:30:44 09:07:02
6 Yeun Sik Ham KOR 09:36:02 n/a
7 Yong Taek Kim KOR 10:07:00 n/a

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Andreas Venhorst and Bevan McKinnon finished close to their expected times and rounded out the podium.

Female Results

On the women’s side, the race was won by late entry Kate Bevilaqua:

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:39:44 09:58:37
2 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 09:56:28 10:13:11
3 Hillary Biscay USA 10:12:20 10:07:31

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Three finishers seems like a low number, but it was all I could find. But with tracking on the ironamlive site not working for Korea, it was actually tricky to find results, so this may have to be updated once the official results coming out.

IM Korea 2011 – Predictions (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Korea in Jeju hasn’t been an official race between 2008 and 2010 (then it was just the “Jeju International Triathlon”), but it has been before that and now it’s back on the list of Kona qualifiers. It’s the slowest course I’ve been looking at so far, with a course rating of -6:22. At least some of it has to do with inaccurate courses (one year the best swim time was barely under an hour), but from what I’ve heard the course really is quite hard.

Most people remember the last race in 2007 because of the women’s winner – it was Chrissie Wellington’s first IM. She won in 9:54, qualified for Kona and the rest is history. On the men’s side, we have Raynard Tissink at the top with a winning time of 9:08.

Male Participants

There are not too many athletes on the start list, and German pro Andreas Venhorst tops the ratings:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Andreas Venhorst GER 09:22:28 09:05:52 139
2 Bevan McKinnon NZL 09:26:29 09:09:46 154
3 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:29:37 09:12:49 177
4 Justin Granger AUS 09:30:49 09:13:59 186
5 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:38:30 09:21:26 250
6 Eneko Elosegui ESP 10:04:25 09:46:35 414
7 Nobuyuki Tanaka JAP n/a unrated n/a
8 Jan Rehula CZE n/a unrated n/a

Andreas has just two results in my database (from 2008 and 2009), so with quite a few athletes close by, he’s not really a sure bet for the win. My pick would be Justin Granger or one of the relatively unknown Asian athletes who always race well in their “local” race. One more thing I noticed: Balazs Csoke seems to have registered for all IMs, he’s also on the start list in Austria on the same day and in IM Germany two weeks later.

Female Participants

On the female side, we have solid Japanese athlete Emi Shiono topping the ranking:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Emi Shiono JPN 10:28:26 10:09:54 106
2 Hillary Biscay USA 10:33:57 10:15:15 126
3 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:39:52 10:20:59 144
4 Jocelyn Wong USA 11:01:42 10:42:11 195
5 Yasuko Miyazaki JPN 11:09:58 10:50:12 210

Most eyes will be on Hillary Biscay who is trying to get another IM win under her belt. I hope she found some renewed spring in her step – after all this is only her second Ironman this year!

IM Austria 2011 – Predictions (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Austria is one of the quickest courses. It’s the fastest of the “official” Ironman courses (with several sub-8 times posted by Marino Vanhoenacker and at least one “world-record” by Sandra Wallenhorst). It has a course rating of 16:10, only Challenge Roth (19:03) is quicker (by almost 3 minutes).

Last years’s race was won by Marino Vanhoenacker in 7:52 and Eva Dollinger in 9:18.

Male Participants

Marino is always racing Austria, and he always posts great results, so it’s not surprise he’s the favorite for this race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:02:55 08:21:59 3
2 Tom Lowe GBR 08:04:45 08:23:54 5
3 Michael Weiss AUT 08:18:18 08:37:59 18
4 Jozsef Major HUN 08:28:54 08:49:00 60
5 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:30:33 08:50:43 70
6 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:31:16 08:51:28 76
7 Jose Luis Villanueva ESP 08:35:28 08:55:49 91
8 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:42:32 09:03:10 128
9 Dominik Berger AUT 08:43:27 09:04:07 133
10 Ernst Moser AUT 08:46:41 09:07:29 144
11 Max Renko Aus 08:48:09 09:09:00 150
12 Markus Ressler AUT 08:49:23 09:10:17 158
13 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:51:49 09:12:49 177
14 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 08:52:48 09:13:51 182
15 Paul Westwood NZL 08:58:24 09:19:40 236
16 Markus Strini AUT 08:59:03 09:20:20 240
17 Lukas Vrobel CZE 09:00:38 09:21:59 253
18 Andreas Wolpert GER 09:00:39 09:22:00 254
19 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:03:18 09:24:45 275
20 Markus Mlinar AUT 09:18:41 09:40:45 379
21 Marcel Bischof GER 09:21:04 09:43:14 391
22 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:24:06 09:46:23 413
23 Stefano Paoli ITA 09:27:31 09:49:56 432
24 Sandi Ivancic SLO 09:27:31 09:49:56 432
25 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:34:49 09:57:31 480
26 Jerzy Kasemier NLD 09:36:38 09:59:24 490
27 Gergely Nagy HUN 10:12:05 10:36:15 667
28 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:49:20 12:17:21 790
29 Jules Hatcher GBR n/a unrated n/a
30 Michal Kulich SVK n/a unrated n/a
31 Dorian Wagner GER n/a unrated n/a
32 Marco Albert EST n/a unrated n/a
33 Flo Kriegl AUT n/a unrated n/a

However, he has had a few DNFs, although I’m not aware of any injuries. Next on the list is Tom Lowe who has just one result to his credit (a great time in IM Arizona). He was injured for the first race he was on the start list (IM South Africa), I hope he’s back on form and can continue a stellar IM career. Michael Weiss’s last IM race was also a DNF while defending his title at IM St. George. Unless there is a major upset, I’m pretty sure that the winner will come from these three athletes. Austria is paying price money up to 8th place, and there are a lot of athletes that will race for these spots.

Female Participants

Even though last year’s winner Eve Dollinger is back at the race, she is not the favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Erika Csomor HUN 09:15:12 09:37:08 22
2 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 09:21:29 09:43:39 40
3 Edith Niederfringer ITA 09:27:35 09:50:00 52
4 Eva Dollinger AUT 09:30:36 09:53:08 58
5 Fernanda Keller BRA 09:49:42 10:12:59 119
6 Barbara Tesar AUT 09:49:47 10:13:05 120
7 Kristin Lie NOR 09:53:02 10:16:27 128
8 Nicole Woysch GER 10:07:22 10:31:21 171
9 Monika Stadlmann AUT 10:25:13 10:49:55 209
10 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 10:37:27 11:02:38 234
11 Joyce Wolfe IRL n/a unrated n/a
12 Anja Ippach GER n/a unrated n/a
13 Simone Helfenschneider-Ofner AUT n/a unrated n/a

Erica Csomor, Heleen Bij De Vaate and Edith Niederfringer will be strong contenders fro the win!

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