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Ironman Brasil 2017 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, the winning times in Brasil have been very fast. But while the top three women have gone sub-9 (and and the next three were less than two minutes above 9 hours), only the male winner Tim Don went sub-8. But what a sub-8 time it was! Tim Don’s 7:40:23 is the second fastest time ever on the full Ironman distance.

Looking at the averages, this year’s race in Florianopolis (adjustment of 25:40) was a bit faster than typical (course rating of 22:03). This year both the swim and the run were quicker than normal. The bike was pretty normal – with the exception of Tim Don’s bike split of 4:06:56 (new bike course record, improving on Marino Vanhoenacker’s 4:11:23 from 2015). Of course Tim also posted a new overall course record, as did female winner Susie Cheetham. Susie’s 8:52:00 improved on Liz Lyles’ 8:54 from last year.

Male Race Results

The swim resulted in a pretty big group leaving T1, but as soon as Tim Don was on the bike, he took control of the race. He was putting four minutes into the rest of the field within 30k, the gap was 10 minutes after 90k and grew to more than 20 minutes in T2. It seems that being in the lead provides some extra power in Brazil (possibly from the lead moto?), we’ve seen a race similar development last year when Brent gapped the rest of the field on the bike. I don’t want to take away from Tim’s race (his run split proved he was the strongest on race day), but the way the race unfolded raises serious questions. Ironman needs to look into them and improve the fairness of the race for next year in order to provide an environment that is in line with Brasil’s Regional Championship status. After Tim’s massive bike split there was some doubt whether he might have overpriced, but he also posted the fast run of the day, winning the race with a gap of 25 minutes.

Second place went to Kyle Buckingham who was only in the second bigger bike group. He had the second best run and was able to overtake everyone but Tim, securing second place by just one minute. The next four spots went to Brazilians: Igor Amorelli had a very balanced race taking third place, Reinaldo Colucci was in the Top 3 for most of the day but ended up in fourth, while Thiago Vinhal and Luis Ohde had solid days to finish fifth and sixth.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Tim Don GBR 00:44:16 04:06:56 02:44:46 07:40:23 -25:22 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:47:12 04:28:48 02:45:18 08:05:43 -04:55 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:44:23 04:27:20 02:51:00 08:06:58 -07:04 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 00:44:22 04:26:58 02:53:58 08:10:04 -19:33 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:45:44 04:30:08 02:50:35 08:11:46 -19:39 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA 00:46:18 04:30:15 02:51:29 08:12:45 -06:38 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Patrick Evoe USA 00:51:07 04:26:30 02:54:04 08:16:26 -15:59 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Mario De Elias ARG 00:48:51 04:37:40 02:48:05 08:19:17 -05:58 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Fellipe Santos BRA 00:44:27 04:38:05 02:55:49 08:23:40 -18:14 US$ 1,500 855
10 Philipp Koutny SUI 00:50:58 04:35:21 02:56:00 08:27:27 01:17 US$ 1,000 685
11 Frank Silvestrin BRA 00:47:16 04:39:24 03:01:38 08:32:56 05:56 515
12 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:51:05 04:44:47 03:06:36 08:48:53 -11:49 385
13 Luiz Francisco Paiva Ferreira BRA 00:44:12 04:39:49 03:27:28 08:56:45 -18:03 290
14 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 00:47:36 04:44:32 03:19:05 08:56:45 n/a 215
15 Andreas Raelert GER 00:44:30 04:27:16 03:45:59 09:02:20 1:03:24 160
16 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:44:14 05:13:51 03:01:50 09:05:05 39:34 120
17 Rodrigo Sanchez ARG 00:55:55 05:18:38 03:02:55 09:25:31 n/a 90
18 Christian Carletto ARG 00:53:18 04:56:24 03:40:06 09:36:43 18:35 70
19 Eduardo Diaz ARG 00:56:08 05:19:17 03:39:37 10:03:06 n/a 50
20 Diego Vasquez ECU 00:57:20 04:48:10 05:27:30 11:21:40 n/a 40
Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:04 04:29:24 DNF
Paul Matthews AUS 00:44:21 04:32:27 DNF
Pedro Gomes POR 00:48:54 04:37:40 DNF
Barrett Brandon USA 00:44:27 DNF
Matt Chrabot USA 00:46:35 DNF
Eneko Llanos ESP 00:47:40 DNF
Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:48:49 DNF
Bruno Matheus BRA 00:48:59 DNF
Josef Svoboda CZE 01:07:21 DNF

Female Race Results

While Tim was leading the race pretty much from start to finish and building his lead all day, there were a lot more position changes in the female race. As expected Haley Chura was the T1 leader, after the swim there weren’t many athletes close to each other. Susie Cheetham was just two and a half minutes back, and it took even Susie 90k to make up the gap to Haley. Behind them there formed a larger group which was lead for a long time by Mareen Hufe, taking  a large number of females along to sub-5-hour bike splits. Mareen was able to break away from the others only in the last 30k of the bike, so in T2 she was three minutes behind Haley and Susie, having posted the fastest bike split of the day.

On the run Haley wasn’t quite ready to accept that Susie was the stronger runner, but in the end Susie’s 3:02 marathon proved to be too strong for Haley and the rest of the field. Susie worked hard in the last part  to be sure she’d go sub-9, she posted a new course record and won the race with a gap of more than five minutes. Behind her there were a few last minute changes: Second place went to Sonja Tajsich (running exactly the same split as Susie) who had the best run of women in the bike chase group. She was able to beat Haley (who finished third) by just one minute, Sonja and and Haley also went sub-9. Fourth place went to Gurutze Frades by 13 seconds over Linsey Corbin who had to sit out a bike penalty in T2. Linsey passed Mareen late on the run, Mareen ended up just 31 seconds behind Linsey in sixth place. The best marathon of the day – a 2:58 – was run by Kristin Moeller, but she had lost too much time on the bike to finish better than 11th.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:50:42 04:53:02 03:02:41 08:52:00 03:01 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Sonja Tajsich GER 00:55:42 04:53:48 03:02:41 08:57:36 -09:53 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Haley Chura USA 00:48:09 04:55:18 03:09:30 08:58:45 -09:30 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 00:55:38 04:53:20 03:06:42 09:01:00 -18:22 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Linsey Corbin USA 00:54:41 04:54:12 03:01:45 09:01:13 07:59 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Mareen Hufe GER 00:55:31 04:51:16 03:09:15 09:01:44 -02:34 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Annah Watkinson ZAF 00:55:35 04:53:44 03:10:04 09:04:59 -07:54 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Pamela Tastets CHI 00:53:08 04:55:51 03:12:57 09:07:56 -04:48 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 00:55:33 05:04:39 03:00:38 09:08:16 02:53 US$ 1,500 855
10 Magali Tisseyre CAN 00:50:15 04:58:40 03:14:12 09:09:49 n/a US$ 1,000 685
11 Kristin Moeller GER 00:55:33 05:12:47 02:58:42 09:12:43 -03:40 515
12 Bruna Mahn BRA 00:54:42 05:14:51 03:12:16 09:27:26 -18:09 385
13 Nicole Valentine USA 00:55:32 05:09:51 03:19:40 09:30:37 -12:25 290
14 Mariana Andrade BRA 00:55:13 05:00:16 04:02:48 10:03:52 12:16 215
15 Erika Simon ARG 00:59:14 05:30:17 03:33:44 10:10:53 n/a 160
Brooke Brown CAN 00:58:17 05:12:10 DNF
Celine Schaerer SUI 00:49:11 DNF
Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:53:04 DNF

Kona Qualifying Implications

Here’s the notable changes in Kona Qualifying on the male side (projected July cutoff 3.500 points):

  • Automatic Qualifier: Tim Don
  • Safe for a July slot: Kyle Buckingham (6.450), Igor Amorelli (3.933)
  • On the Bubble (might be enough, but maybe not): Thiago Vinhal (3.725), Reinaldo Colucci (3.390)
  • Close (but more points needed): Patrick Evoe (3.163)

On the female side (projected cutoff 4.300 points):

  • Automatic Qualifier: Susie Cheetham
  • Safe for a July slot: Mareen Hufe (5.020), Gurutze Frades (4.915), Linsey Corbin (4,725)
  • On the Bubble (might be enough, but maybe not): Haley Chura (4.180)
  • Close (but more points needed): Sonja Tajsich (3.400), Lisi Gruber (3.175)

Ironman Germany 2017 (July 9th) – Entry Lists

The “European Championships” is the last of the five Regional Championships. It is the last chance for athletes to “score big points” for Kona, so the field is usually very deep. You can also expect quite a few changes in the final weeks, as a lot of athletes enter “just in case” or join the field as a last minute decision.

Update June 7th: Added Elisabeth Gruber, Rachel Joyce, Diana Riesler, Sonja Tajsich, and Pamela Tastets for the WPROs and Mark Bowstead, Ivan Caceres Lopez, Alberto Casadei, Michal Ivanco, Patrick Lange, Giulio Molinari, Marek Nemcik, Andreas Raelert, Youri Severin, Ivan Tutukin and Lukasz Wojt for the MPROs.

Update June 14th: Added Lucy Charles, Olga Kowalska, Andi Boecherer, James Cunnama, Markus Fachbach, David Jilek, Alfred Rahm, and Peter Seidel.

Male Race Participants

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
1 Sebastian Kienle GER 10985 1+2 (7200/1085)
2 Andi Boecherer GER 5890 1+1
3 Patrick Lange GER 6480 1+0
4 Andreas Raelert GER 160 1+0
5 Cyril Viennot FRA 2420 2+1
6 Bas Diederen NED 730 1+1
7 Michael Raelert GER 835 0+2 (0/400)
8 Horst Reichel GER 25 1+1
9 Mike Schifferle SUI 755 3+0 (120/0)
10 Giulio Molinari ITA 1790 2+0
11 Patrik Nilsson SWE 2180 1+1
13 Marko Albert EST 3080 2+1
14 Peru Alfaro ESP 960 1+0
15 Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP    
16 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP    
17 Lucas Amirault FRA 144 0+2 (0/9)
18 Nick Baldwin SEY 2095 2+2 (405/90)
19 Rob Bobbaers BEL    
20 Mark Bowstead NZL 2640 2+2 (720/415)
21 Ivan Caceres Lopez ESP    
22 Alberto Casadei ITA 230 1+0
24 Andres Darricau ARG 57 0+2 (0/7)
26 Trevor Delsaut FRA 1161 2+2 (170/1)
27 Sean Donnelly GER 10 0+1
28 Olivier Esser BEL 65 1+1
29 Philip Graves GBR 1605 2+0
30 Esben Hovgaard DEN 1135 2+1
31 Michal Ivanco SVK 5 0+1
32 Alfonso Jimenez Hernandez ESP    
33 Philipp Koutny SUI 1115 3+1 (120/140)
34 Frederic Limousin FRA 110 0+2 (0/45)
36 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 2000 1+0
37 Charles Martin FRA 67 0+2 (0/2)
38 Matic Modic SLO 445 1+1
39 Marek Nemcik SVK 17 3+1 (1/3)
40 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 720 2+2 (170/45)
41 Yuri Novikau BLR    
42 Lukas Polan CZE 145 0+2 (0/5)
43 Ivan Risti ITA 1280 1+0
44 Michael Ruenz GER 1190 2+1
45 Daniil Sapunov UKR 2710 3+1 (685/345)
46 Frederic Schaffner FRA    
47 Evert Scheltinga NED 570 1+1
48 Youri Severin NED 3 1+0
49 Yu Shinozaki JPN 15 0+1
50 Ohad Sinai ISR 57 1+2 (2/5)
51 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 180 1+1
52 Kevin Thewes GER 1 1+0
53 Xavier Torrades ESP 30 1+0
55 Thiago Vinhal BRA 3740 2+1
56 Lukasz Wojt POL 100 0+1
57 Ivan Tutukin RUS 2240 1+2 (1600/100)
58 Peter Seidel GER 7 0+1
59 James Cunnama ZAF 2065 2+2 (340/400)
60 Markus Fachbach GER 1880 1+1
61 David Jilek CZE 15 0+1
62 Alfred Rahm GER 10 1+0

Female Race Participants

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
101 Anja Beranek GER 5835 1+0
102 Natascha Schmitt GER 1125 1+2 (540/255)
103 Sarah Crowley AUS 7590 2+2 (1375/715)
104 Sonja Tajsich GER 3400 1+0
105 Corinne Abraham GBR 2675 2+1
106 Rachel Joyce GBR 3140 1+2 (2000/220)
107 Angela Naeth CAN 750 0+1
108 Franziska Bossow GER    
109 Camille Deligny FRA 0 0+0
110 Annabel Diawuoh GER 340 1+1
111 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 4135 2+2 (880/400)
112 Katharina Grohmann GER 4470 3+1 (960/140)
113 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 390 1+1
114 Pleuni Hooijman NED 30 0+1
115 Annett Jalowi GER    
116 Katja Konschak GER 2125 2+1
117 Shiao-yu Li TWN 2550 3+1 (90/320)
118 Elizabeth Lyles USA 4155 2+2 (340/540)
119 Diana Riesler GER 2785 1+1
120 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 865 3+0 (230/0)
121 Pamela Tastets CHI 2555 2+2 (960/180)
122 Magali Tisseyre CAN 1850 1+1
123 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 2140 2+1
124 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 3175 3+0 (720/0)
125 Lucy Charles GBR 2115 1+1
126 Olga Kowalska POL 115 0+1

TriTrivia for IM Brasil

Here are a few “fun questions” about the top female and male contenders for IM Brasil. Can you guess which athletes I’m referring to? (If you need some help, the full Pro startlist can be found here. The solutions are posted at the bottom.)

  1. He/she finished second at IM South Africa with a wire in the arm as a pin for a broken elbow.
  2. He/she dropped the Kona GPS tracker in a porta-loo.
  3. He/she strained a muscle on the bike portion of IM Austria, but still ran a marathon PR.
  4. He/she had a Kona meltdown of PNF proportions .. running in 8th place at 37k, eventually finishing 21st.
  5. He/she started Kona with what turned out to be a broken fibula – a DNF probably prevented more severe damage.
  6. He/she tore a ligament in the hand, requiring a three week break from swimming and missing some early 2017 races.
  7. After Kona last year, he/she added a new member to the family .. a cute puppy.

If you need some hints, check out my previews for the male and female races, the athletes that “match” the facts above are (in alphabetical order):

  1. Susie Cheetham
  2. Haley Chura
  3. Linsey Corbin
  4. Tim Don
  5. Mareen Hufe
  6. Brent McMahon
  7. Andreas Raelert

Here are the matches: 1A 2D 3G 4E 5B 6F 7C

Ironman Austria 2017 (July 2nd) – Entry List

Update May 26th: Based on the updated start list I have added Corinne Abraham, Kelly Fillnow, Camilla Lindholm, Kamila Polak on the female side and Tim Brydenbach, Nicholas Chase, Gergely Nagy, David Plese, Mike Schifferle and Cyril Viennot on the male side.

Update June 7th: Added Diana Riesler, Sara Tavecchio, Maja Urban, Anton Blokhin, Michal Ivanco, Marek Nemcik, Jens Petersen-Bach, Paul Ruttmann, Pavel Simko and Michael Weiss.

Male Race Participants

Jan Frodeno has also been announced as one of the athletes racing in Klagenfurt, however he is currently missing from the entry list.

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Ivan Rana ESP 3710 1+2 (3445/45)
David Plese SLO 3695 3+1 (880/785)
Ruedi Wild SUI 3310 1+2 (340/540)
Cyril Viennot FRA 2420 2+1
Michael Weiss AUT 1945 2+1
Tim Brydenbach BEL 1770 2+0
Antony Costes FRA 1170 2+2 (20/500)
Trevor Delsaut FRA 1161 2+2 (170/1)
Daniel Niederreiter AUT 960 1+0
Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 960 1+0
Matt Burton AUS 640 0+2 (0/240)
Stefan Schmid GER 580 1+1
Mike Schifferle SUI 545 3+0 (20/0)
Vinicius Canhedo BRA 325 1+1
Christian Birngruber AUT 220 0+1
Markus Liebelt GER 195 0+2 (0/15)
Anton Blokhin UKR 155 1+1
Paul Ruttmann AUT 145 0+2 (0/30)
Nicholas Chase USA 85 0+2 (0/10)
Freddy Lampret ZAF 65 1+2 (25/5)
Lluis Vila aguilar ESP 65 0+1
Valentin Zasypkin RUS 45 1+1
Robin Schneider GER 35 0+1
Marek Nemcik SVK 17 3+1 (1/3)
Josef Svoboda CZE 15 1+0
Ivan Jezko SVK 12 1+1
Sebastian Pedraza ITA 7 1+1
Lukas Polan CZE 6 0+2 (0/1)
Simon Brierley SEY 5 0+1
Michal Bucek SVK 5 0+1
Michal Ivanco SVK 5 0+1
Thomas Meusburger AUT 5 0+1
Pavel Simko SVK 2 1+0
Gergely Nagy HUN 1 1+0
Michael Van Cleven BEL 0 0+0
Rob Bobbaers BEL    
Paul Reitmayr AUT    

Female Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Michelle Vesterby DEN 6725 2+0
Diana Riesler GER 2785 1+1
Corinne Abraham GBR 2675 2+1
Kelly Fillnow USA 2170 3+1 (305/180)
Alexandra Tondeur BEL 2140 2+1
Bianca Steurer AUT 685 1+1
Kamila Polak AUT 320 0+2 (0/140)
Eva Wutti AUT 220 0+1
Rahel Bellinga NED 125 1+1
Annabel Diawuoh GER 120 1+0
Olga Kowalska POL 115 0+1
Julia Montgomery SWE 0 0+0
Franziska Bossow GER    
Camilla Lindholm SWE    
Sara Tavecchio      
Maja Urban      

Ironman Boulder 2017 (June 11th) – Seedings

IMBoulder

Previous Winners

After the initial race of 2014, IM Boulder was no longer a Pro race. The race continued as an agegroup-only race in 2015 and 2016. This year a Pro division is added back again.

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2014 Justin Daerr (USA) 08:20:26 Danielle Mack (USA) 09:19:54

TOP 3 from Last Race

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Justin Daerr USA 00:53:21 04:24:54 02:56:41 08:20:26
2 Richie Cunningham AUS 00:50:28 04:24:47 03:09:56 08:30:38
3 Scott Defilippis USA 00:57:27 04:47:48 03:02:48 08:54:19

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Danielle Mack USA 01:03:53 04:52:56 03:16:42 09:19:54
2 Laura Bennett USA 00:54:02 04:59:29 03:44:31 09:43:59
3 Christine Hammond USA 00:55:38 05:09:33 03:41:44 09:53:04

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:20:26 Justin Daerr 2014-08-03
Swim overall 00:50:28 Richie Cunningham 2014-08-03
Bike overall 04:24:47 Richie Cunningham 2014-08-03
Run overall 02:56:41 Justin Daerr 2014-08-03
Total female 09:19:54 Danielle Mack 2014-08-03
Swim female 00:54:02 Laura Bennett 2014-08-03
Bike female 04:52:56 Danielle Mack 2014-08-03
Run female 03:16:42 Danielle Mack 2014-08-03

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Boulder is – 01:54.

Race Adjustments for IM Boulder

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2014 -01:54 -00:35 17:17 -08:46 13 of 16 -01:54 -00:35 17:17 -08:46

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Boulder is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 80.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 10% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:20:30 08:23:27 00:48:51 04:21:40 05:15:31 03:04:59 15% +52% -34% (14) 13
2 4 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:27:04 08:31:23 00:50:06 04:23:05 05:18:11 03:08:53 37% +32% -30% (14) 35
3 7 Leon Griffin AUS 08:27:10 08:41:14 00:49:55 04:26:22 05:21:17 03:05:53 5% +56% -39% (8) 75
4 3 Tim Don GBR 08:29:17 08:32:43 00:49:11 04:29:22 05:23:34 03:05:43 64% +0% -36% (4) (41)
5 6 Matt Chrabot USA 08:31:54 08:44:38 00:49:48 04:28:37 05:23:25 03:08:29 8% +34% -58% (5) (84)
6 1 Justin Daerr USA 08:36:37 08:42:47 00:53:53 04:31:59 05:30:52 03:05:45 71% +7% -22% (30) 78
7 8 Jozsef Major HUN 08:48:50 08:53:16 01:01:01 04:34:09 05:40:10 03:08:40 61% +24% -16% (32) 109
8 17 Tripp Hipple USA 08:53:52 09:05:23 00:55:25 04:35:20 05:35:45 03:18:07 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (158)
9 19 Sam Long USA 08:55:18 09:06:51 00:57:05 04:30:05 05:32:11 03:23:07 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (161)
10 5 Patrick Evoe USA 08:58:49 09:00:50 00:57:20 04:34:14 05:36:34 03:22:15 77% +4% -20% (25) 143
11 14 Christopher Bagg USA 09:02:59 09:28:59 00:55:33 04:39:56 05:40:29 03:22:30 5% +21% -74% (14) (226)
12 10 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:05:39 09:04:05 01:02:14 04:39:33 05:46:47 03:18:52 86% +12% -2% (62) 154
13 12 Steven Zawaski USA 09:05:49 09:42:34 00:59:02 04:44:38 05:48:40 03:17:09 46% +0% -54% (2) (250)
14 13 Jarrod Shoemaker USA 09:09:10 09:19:27 00:49:02 04:57:02 05:51:04 03:18:06 45% +55% -0% (2) (197)
15 18 Colin Laughery USA 09:13:26 09:18:33 00:58:27 04:43:19 05:46:46 03:26:40 76% +24% -0% (6) 194
16 9 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:20:09 09:23:44 00:49:02 04:47:54 05:41:56 03:38:13 12% +3% -85% (29) 203
17 16 Ivan Dominguez USA 10:15:34 10:28:51 00:56:39 05:00:26 06:02:05 04:13:29 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (293)
18 15 Max Biessmann USA 10:16:34 10:29:52 00:53:51 04:48:33 05:47:24 04:29:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (294)
11 Robert Wade IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Patrick Mckeon USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
21 Kennett Peterson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 9% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 28 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:05:36 09:03:58 00:53:30 04:50:15 05:48:45 03:16:51 68% +32% -0% (17) (3)
2 27 Heather Jackson USA 09:12:57 09:12:39 01:00:17 04:49:44 05:55:01 03:17:56 59% +29% -13% (6) 4
3 26 Danielle Mack USA 09:33:01 09:50:28 01:03:57 05:03:56 06:12:52 03:20:09 40% +15% -45% (9) 61
4 29 Kelly Williamson USA 09:34:49 09:33:55 00:55:40 05:19:54 06:20:34 03:14:15 87% +7% -6% (14) 34
5 36 Darbi Roberts USA 09:47:59 09:54:59 00:55:42 05:10:15 06:10:57 03:37:02 50% +0% -50% (8) 68
6 30 Uli Bromme USA 09:50:42 09:48:11 01:04:55 05:00:46 06:10:41 03:40:01 35% +38% -27% (14) (55)
7 34 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:53:59 10:03:03 01:01:38 05:06:53 06:13:30 03:40:29 35% +7% -58% (13) 78
8 37 Maggie Rusch USA 10:10:24 10:30:30 01:03:15 05:14:26 06:22:41 03:47:43 31% +20% -49% (5) (132)
9 35 Ashley Paulson USA 10:12:14 10:20:16 01:14:59 05:23:18 06:43:17 03:28:57 69% +0% -31% (4) 112
10 32 Kate Bruck USA 10:25:37 10:33:25 01:05:21 05:30:06 06:40:27 03:45:10 60% +0% -40% (4) 138
11 31 Sarah Bay USA 10:32:41 10:46:21 01:10:07 05:23:11 06:38:18 03:54:23 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (146)
12 39 Amy Vantassel USA 10:52:58 11:13:43 01:12:39 05:43:45 07:01:24 03:51:34 47% +0% -53% (2) (151)
33 Kimberly Goodell USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
38 Carla Schubiger SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Timothy O’Donnell: 37% (2-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 21% (4-1)
  • Tim Don: 12% (7-1)
  • Leon Griffin: 11% (8-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 11% (8-1)
  • Matt Chrabot: 6% (16-1)

Female Race Participants

Statistically, Rachel Joyce may be the clear favorite, but this does not take into account that IM Boulder will be her first IM after having baby Archie. (Her last IM before was her second place finish at IM Hawaii 2015.) Even with Rachel’s results in her prep 70.3s, Heather Jackson must be considered the “real” favorite for this race.

  • Rachel Joyce: 71% (1-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 23% (3-1)
  • Danielle Mack: 3% (35-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 2% (44-1)
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