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Thorsten

Ironman Arizona 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Everything in Arizona was a little bit quicker than what is typical this year. Most of the quick times originate from a very fast bike (adjustment of 19:03, compared to a rating of less than 10 minutes). The impact of the new run course was not very big (run adjustment of 4:12 with a run rating of 1:54), so we have to assume that the conditions were just very good for a quick bike ride.

Male Race Results

Jordan Rapp quickly took control of the race on the bike, posting a new bike record (bettering Andy Starykowicz’ time from last year). It was quite unusual for his usual race plan to be the one being hunted down – but Victor Del Corral did just that, posting another fantastic marathon only two weeks after his 2:37 from Florida. Jens Petersen-Bach rounded out the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:54:03 04:20:11 02:43:58 08:02:00 -05:54
2 Jordan Rapp USA 00:52:45 04:14:44 02:54:54 08:06:13 -03:38
3 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:52:10 04:22:23 02:49:39 08:07:53 -10:34
4 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:48:41 04:26:59 02:49:47 08:09:04 -04:29
5 Pedro Gomes POR 00:48:49 04:21:19 02:57:57 08:11:42 -14:04
6 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:53:49 04:19:53 02:54:47 08:12:34 -33:27
7 Marc Duelsen GER 00:53:01 04:21:39 02:56:12 08:14:29 n/a
8 Christian Brader GER 00:56:49 04:25:22 02:52:38 08:18:44 -25:03
9 Matthew Russell USA 00:59:19 04:20:01 02:55:53 08:19:10 -15:54
10 Johann Ackermann GER 00:48:33 04:28:31 03:01:38 08:22:30 n/a
11 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:53:52 04:25:32 03:01:01 08:24:23 -20:24
12 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:53:49 04:20:35 03:07:01 08:25:01 -15:11
13 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 00:48:47 04:39:37 02:54:01 08:25:49 n/a
14 Dan Mcintosh USA 00:52:47 04:27:01 03:04:15 08:28:13 -29:08
15 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 00:54:04 04:36:11 02:53:35 08:28:21 -19:50
16 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:53:41 04:28:26 03:03:46 08:29:57 01:35
17 Jared Milam USA 00:53:46 04:33:29 02:59:08 08:30:22 -27:00
18 Matt Hanson USA 00:56:29 04:39:13 02:51:11 08:30:29 n/a
19 Joe Umphenour USA 00:48:32 04:31:49 03:07:50 08:33:04 04:06
20 Andrew Russell CAN 00:48:39 04:28:38 03:13:02 08:33:50 -05:13
21 Jozsef Major HUN 00:56:59 04:22:45 03:12:51 08:36:59 08:43
22 Ryan Cain CAN 00:55:34 04:37:06 03:02:05 08:38:42 -23:51
23 Matt Chrabot USA 00:48:36 04:30:42 03:16:51 08:39:50 n/a
24 Patrick Wheeler USA 00:56:54 04:42:28 02:58:05 08:43:09 -01:28
25 Matty Reed USA 00:48:36 04:33:16 03:21:34 08:47:16 19:30
26 Raymond Botelho USA 00:54:02 04:27:26 03:21:08 08:47:31 -42:54
27 Anthony Toth CAN 00:57:41 04:43:37 03:04:28 08:51:13 -17:33
28 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:49:05 04:53:06 03:10:11 08:56:27 -26:29
29 Jozef Vrabel SVK 00:53:44 04:42:44 03:25:13 09:05:36 -19:38
30 Luke Way CAN 00:59:08 04:41:47 03:21:34 09:07:44 -10:22
31 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 00:56:55 04:39:19 03:29:16 09:09:19 -06:51
32 Brendan Naef CAN 00:56:59 04:52:52 03:19:42 09:14:26 -52:00
33 Pierre-Yves Facomprez FRA 01:02:51 04:48:19 03:25:05 09:21:18 n/a
34 Lewis Elliot USA 00:54:15 04:41:53 03:41:08 09:21:42 08:20
35 Raul Furtado BRA 00:54:05 04:42:19 03:43:46 09:23:58 36:26
36 Erich Wegscheider GBR 00:56:56 05:07:56 03:21:25 09:32:42 21:20
37 Jon Woods NZL 00:58:35 04:47:16 03:44:41 09:34:36 05:51
38 Robbie Wade IRL 00:58:41 04:49:41 03:43:07 09:35:29 n/a
39 Heinrich Sickl AUT 00:59:15 04:42:29 03:54:31 09:40:24 11:40
40 Jim Lubinski USA 01:05:47 04:57:56 03:43:54 09:51:32 31:09
41 Timo Gronlund USA 01:00:24 05:09:38 03:37:06 09:52:25 n/a
42 Patrick Schuster USA 01:06:23 04:58:26 03:44:13 09:55:57 40:12
43 Richard Wygand BRA 01:06:54 04:59:16 03:45:19 09:57:44 -30:04
44 Jimi Minnema USA 01:03:42 05:07:18 03:44:34 10:00:55 n/a
45 Josh Seifarth CAN 00:53:41 04:50:34 04:16:16 10:05:33 n/a
46 Damian Hill 01:01:10 05:32:28 03:35:43 10:16:27 n/a
47 Jason Watson USA 00:59:42 05:18:00 04:01:46 10:24:55 -12:29
48 Jeff Tarkowski USA 00:58:58 05:09:01 05:42:20 11:56:35 n/a

Female Race Results

The race on the women’s side mirrored the men’s: Meredith Kessler was leading after the bike. She also posted a new bike record (improving on Chrissie’s time), but only held the record for a few minutes as Michelle Vesterby was another 2 1/2 minutes quicker. (It was a quick day, Sarah Piampiano was also under the old record.) Both Meredith and Michelle didn’t have a bad marathon, but it was quickly apparent that Julia Gajer had the best running legs and would probably run them down in the last miles. Julia posted the best run split and won by almost three minutes over Meredith who held off Michelle.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Julia Gajer GER 00:53:24 04:51:46 03:02:02 08:52:49 -14:40
2 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:14 04:45:33 03:16:05 08:55:47 -10:58
3 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:53:30 04:42:57 03:16:43 08:57:24 -09:44
4 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:02:48 04:46:23 03:12:49 09:05:57 -21:26
5 Asa Lundström SWE 00:59:46 04:55:30 03:12:47 09:12:20 -09:19
6 Eimear Mullan IRL 00:59:43 05:04:16 03:04:42 09:13:13 -18:12
7 Lisa Ribes USA 01:06:08 04:56:54 03:05:42 09:13:32 -08:36
8 Uli Bromme USA 01:02:50 04:52:28 03:15:13 09:15:00 -19:35
9 Beth Shutt USA 01:02:37 05:01:55 03:06:39 09:15:38 -29:05
10 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:02:58 05:02:54 03:11:37 09:21:53 -25:44
11 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:56 04:55:16 03:25:46 09:25:05 10:40
12 Jessica Meyers USA 00:59:38 05:04:40 03:25:21 09:33:44 n/a
13 Miranda Tomenson CAN 00:57:27 05:01:20 03:35:56 09:38:52 n/a
14 Kristin Lie NOR 01:15:12 04:57:24 03:23:45 09:41:04 -01:07
15 Christine Fletcher CAN 00:59:33 05:03:53 03:36:16 09:45:21 -11:01
16 Trish Deim USA 01:05:35 04:58:04 03:37:30 09:45:58 -16:39
17 Tine Holst DEN 01:08:38 04:58:14 03:34:43 09:46:26 -03:12
18 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 01:07:39 05:09:15 03:26:23 09:47:14 17:13
19 Kate Bruck USA 01:06:21 05:17:37 03:20:17 09:49:41 n/a
20 Erin Young USA 00:59:40 05:11:48 03:34:27 09:53:42 -15:00
21 Kristyn Tobey BMU 01:07:37 05:05:59 03:39:00 09:56:41 -13:02
22 Steffi Steinberg GER 01:08:47 05:13:48 03:31:42 09:58:45 -08:12
23 Amy Forshaw GBR 01:06:37 05:10:31 03:38:27 10:01:18 -08:57
24 Katja Konschak GER 00:53:27 05:09:56 04:08:33 10:17:31 50:05
25 Lisa Mueller USA 01:05:34 05:13:44 03:53:15 10:18:12 n/a
26 Morgan Chaffin USA 00:59:51 05:18:44 04:38:06 11:03:25 n/a
27 Sarah Baker CAN 01:04:47 05:25:23 04:58:27 11:32:38 1:14:19

Data on Planning your Season for best Kona Performance

Before Kona, there was a lot of speculation about Caroline Steffen’s prep which included a full Ironman-distance race just six weeks before Kona. Now that the race is over, I have a closer look at some of the data on the impact of season planning for performance in Kona.

Of course this analysis has some limitations:

  • There are not too many data points – after all, we only had 85 pro athletes on the start line in Kona.
  • Each athlete recovers at a different rate, the analysis can only be a general guideline that has to be adapted for each athlete.
  • My data and analysis is limited to the Pros, the picture could be different for age groupers.

With these caveats out of the way, let’s have a look at the data. I’ll be showing graphs of athletes Kona performance. The Kona performance is the time difference (in minutes) between their Rating (based on all their previous results) and their normalized Kona finish time, after accounting for the course and conditions on race day. A „normal“ day would produce a Kona performance of 0, performances larger than 0 mean that the athlete performed better than expected, negative numbers indicate that things didn’t go quite as well.

Last IM before Kona

The first graph show the athletes Kona performance in relation to the time that each athlete took between racing his/her last Ironman-distance race before Kona:

LastIM

The month names indicate when the last IM-distance race was, the light blue line shows the median Kona performances, and the thicker blue line a „best fit“ for the data.

Here’s the raw data behind this graph:

Month Athletes DNFs DNF % Median Performance
November 5 1 20% 3:12 (not shown)
March 8 2 25% 2:20
April 1 0 0 (not shown)
May 6 0 0 9:42
June 13 4 31% 1:52
July 26 6 23% -1:52
August 22 5 23% -2:39
September 4 0 0 -12:00

There are a few interesting observations in this data:

  • The time since the last IM does not seem to have a discernible influence on the DNF rate.
  • In order to deliver the best Kona performance, there seems to be a sweet-spot in May. (But if we included the November data, we would end up with a relatively „flat“ graph before May. Hard to tell if there is much of a difference with so few data points.)
  • After May, the less time there is before Kona, the more likely it is to have a bad result. The 2013 data doesn’t show much of a difference between July and August.
I’ve posted a similar analysis in 2011, with very similar observations.

Number of IMs before Kona

There is another way to look at the Kona performance: in relation to the number of IMs athletes have raced before Kona:

NoofRaces

Again, the light line with the data points show the actual data, and the darker line a best fit. (6 is actually a category representing 6 or more races. It won’t be a surprise that the athlete with the most was Peter Vabrousek with 11 IM-distance races between Kona 2012 and 2013.)

Again, the main information is relatively obvious:

  • The more IM races you race, the more you’ll probably struggle in Kona.
  • The ideal number of long distance races (outside of Kona) seems to be either one or two.

Implications

I think that there are a few implications for athletes that want to focus on their Kona performance:

  • Avoid long-distance races close to Kona. (It’s just one data point, but I would think that Caroline is wondering what would have happened if she didn’t race MetaMan.)
  • Try to qualify at the end of July if possible. (The best case scenario is probably Jordan’s 2012 season: Qualify late, then have a conservative Kona race to get some good points for the next season.)
  • Make a decision whether to focus on Kona or one of the European and North American championships (Frankfurt in July, Mont Tremblant in August). As far as I know, with the exception of Chrissie Wellington we’ve never had the same athlete win both in Frankfurt and Kona.
  • If you have enough points, just race an Ironman either in November („just validate strategy“) or in April/May, then have a focused Kona build. (This seems to be the strategy that Rinny feels very comfortable with.)

Unfortunately, this is a bit in conflict with the way WTC has set up the KPR system – late season big races, and the hectic August qualifying. In my opinion, this is not the best way to set up athletes for great Kona performances.

Dirk Bockel – Q&A after Kona 2013

Dirk Bockel is the best known triathlete from Luxemburg. For some background on his Ironman career so far, check out my post „Dirk Bockel in Numbers“. This year, he was going to Kona with great hopes after winning Roth in 7:52, but didn’t finish the race in Kona. He was kind enough to answer some of my questions about his race and his future plans.

Dirk Run

Thorsten: Dirk, what lead to your DNF in Kona?

Dirk: It was a bit of a disaster. I really don’t know how it happened. There are so many rumours that some of the drink we got on the course might have gone bad. I have never thrown up in a race before, and it happened to some other athletes as well. So the fact is that something happened on the course which was outside of my control. Until that point I was having a great race but with the stomach cramps and throwing up I had to climb into an ambulance. I’m still upset about that.

T: In the last years, you already had a lot of KPR points after Kona. Basically you just had to complete an Ironman to get your Kona slot which you did by winning in Regensburg in 2012 and by finishing Cozumel for 2013. 

D: If you just have to validate, it’s relatively easy. But you still have to finish an Ironman and it’s a long day! Cozumel was one of those things that shouldn’t happen. I got injured during the race, had to stop 20 minutes and tortured myself to just walk to the finish line to qualify. I’m not sure if this is the best qualification system, but those are the rules. If you want to race Kona, you have to play by the rules that WTC makes.

T: This year, you have to find a way to qualify starting with no points after Kona. Have you decided how to approach the 2014 season?

D: I haven’t made up my mind whether I continue to race Hawaii and do the qualification and all that comes with it, or whether I do races like Abu Dhabi and Challenge Roth. Both options are there, and both options are pretty extreme. I don’t really see the point in qualifying over the whole year and to basically race for very low dollars just trying to get points. As a professional, you also have to look at some of the money races in order to make a living.

T: What do you think your season would have to look in order to be able to qualify for Kona?

D: There are not too many options. It doesn’t really make sense to race now – it’s offseason and I wouldn’t be in good shape. Even if I forced myself to race, I could really underperform and then not get too many points. I could wait till next year and then do one of the regional championships like Melbourne or Frankfurt. Even winning a normal Ironman just gives you 2.000 points and you roughly need 3.000 points. Plus you have race obligations with your sponsors and then you still have to do Kona! In our sport you just can’t race that much. People looking for good sponsorship deals might have to do that, but it’s not the smartest thing. It’s not good for your body and for your own future.

T: So qualifying for Kona and racing well in October seems very hard to do.

D: Yes, Kona is such a special race. You have to sacrifice a lot of your season to perform well in Hawaii. But your whole season has to be planned around qualifying. It’s always at least one Ironman so you never know what happens. Usually one Ironman is not enough, so you have to race another one. Racing three or four 70.3s instead is also not a solution – it’s a lot of travelling, a lot of time investment and financial investment. You don’t get much out of it, so it’s a win-loose situation. The company WTC wins, and the athletes have to race a lot to qualify. They can’t properly prepare for a peak performance. Then you have to race Hawaii but you’re already tired from racing all year to get the points.

T: Do you think there should be changes in the KPR to allow athletes to focus on Kona?

D: As an athlete, I don’t make the rules, but I definitely want to give constructive feedback to get a better system. I think that if you post certain times, for example sub-8 hours, you should be qualified for Hawaii.  It would be great to score Kona points in non-WTC races. Also, if you medal at the ITU Long Distance World Championships or had a TOP 10 in Kona, you should be qualified without the need to validate. The reason for their recent changes to the KPR was to discourage athletes from racing six or seven Ironman races just to qualify without a chance for a top spot in Hawaii after so many races.

T: But there are still a lot of Pros racing in the KPR system.

D: If you want to qualify for Kona, WTC more or less binds athletes to their events. There are also athletes that have a deal with WTC to get paid to do a certain number of races. That’s a good thing but not too many people know about that. In terms of transparency both for the athlete and the company, everybody should know who is supported by WTC.

Some athletes don’t have great sponsorships that allow them to focus on Kona, they are looking for other options. I think I have only counted 20 athletes returning to the Kona, it was upsetting to see less and less people being there. Maybe Challenge comes up with their own „World Championship“.

T: Coming back to your 2014 season, will it be possible for you to try to qualify and also race Challenge Roth in the summer?

D: If I have to chase Kona points, I’ll have to sacrifice Roth which would be terrible. I really want to defend my title. It was the nicest race by far that I’ve done in 25 years of my triathlon career. It would be a pity to sacrifice that just to go to Kona.

I’ll probably start my season around March, either in Abu Dhabi or Melbourne, in the summer it’s either Roth or Frankfurt. At the end of the year it’s a choice between another Challenge long distance race or World Championships in Kona again.

I’m really torn apart sitting between two chairs, and I have to make a decision pretty soon.

T: You mentioned that your deal with Leopard Trek ends in 2013. How is your financial situation for 2014?

D: I’m blessed with new sponsors for the next few years, and will announce them in the very near future. They’ll probably make my decision a bit easier.

Dirk, thank you very much for your open answers. All the best for your 2014 season! I hope that you can look back a year from now and say you’ve made a good decision.

Dirk Bockel in Numbers

Dirk Bockel is the best known triathlete from Luxembourg. I his home country, he is approaching the popularity of the famous cycling brothers Andy and Fränk Schleck. After his DNF in Kona this year, he is facing a difficult decision about his 2014 plans. I’ve had a chat with him about his choices and will post about it soon. But first I’d like to introduce Dirk with one of my “Numbers Profiles” and give some background on his Ironman career so far.

Overview

The first time I noticed Dirk was when he was leading the Olympic Triathlon race in Beijing 2008 for a long time on the bike and on the run, eventually finishing 25th. He then switched to long distance racing, here is a table of his Ironman races:

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Normalised Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 00:47:49 04:37:38 02:57:03 08:27:12 08:34:36 08:34:36 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:50:50 04:37:29 02:57:42 08:29:55 08:18:43 08:25:59 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:51:12 04:35:48 02:52:02 08:22:59 08:22:46 08:24:38 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 00:46:50 04:37:33 02:51:56 08:21:23 08:32:11 08:26:54 3
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 00:51:44 04:24:17 02:53:03 08:12:58 08:12:56 08:22:57 4
IM Regensburg 2012-06-17 00:45:03 04:31:08 02:51:56 08:11:59 08:17:40 08:21:36 1
IM Hawaii 2012-10-13 00:52:30 04:34:17 03:05:47 08:36:21 08:26:49 08:22:45 10
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 00:50:15 04:28:39 04:30:21 09:52:18 09:58:30 08:40:25 26
Challenge Roth 2013-07-14 00:46:05 04:15:05 02:48:41 07:52:01 08:09:05 08:34:44 1

As usual, there are three main data points for each race in addition to the splits:

  • „Total” is the finishing time for each race, as it appeared in the results
  • „Normalised” is the course- and condition-neutral time, allowing a comparison of results from different races
  • „Rating” is a weighted average of all previous normalised times in order to compare different athletes, even if they haven’t raced each other

It’s easier to spot the trends in the following graph:

DirkDevelopment

Development

After his great Beijing performance, Dirk prepared for longer racing, and immediately had great results. In his first Ironman in New Zealand 2009, he managed to qualify for Kona with a solid 3rd place behind Cam Brown and Terenzo Bozzone. In his Hawaii debut he finished 7th in almost the same time (8:29 vs. 8:27) but a much better normalised performance. In 2010 he had more solid results: He finished 8th in Kona (again improving his rating), then quickly punched his Kona ticket with a 3rd place at IM Florida. (His normalised time was a bit slower, but  that’s not surprising so soon after Kona.)

2011 saw him make another big step forward: He finished 4th in Kona with his best time so far (bot total and normalised). After a fast bike he was still able to post a solid 2:53 run. He was only beaten by Craig Alexander, Pete Jacobs and Andi Raelert, who ran between 2:42 and 2:47 to beat him.

He’s had another good season in 2012. (If you haven’t seen it yet, you should watch the great documentary on his 2012 season.) He won Ironman Regensburg and was in great shape for Kona. Unfortunately, he broke his hand a few days before Kona. He was severely handicapped during the swim (requiring a splint), and had problems grabbing bottles on the bike. He didn’t quite have the day he wanted, but pulled himself together to finish in 10th place.

BockelBikeHill

After Kona, he quickly validated his Kona slot by finishing in Cozumel. He ran into problems on the run, and hobbled into the finish, posting a slower run leg than on the bike. Still, he finished to make sure he could he qualified for Kona 2013. (You can clearly see the impact of this „bad race“ in the graph above, the total and normalised times are well outside the area of this graph, and his rating takes a big upward spike.) In the summer, it looked as if he managed to leave all these problems behind: He raced solo on the fast course in Roth, posting the 6th fastest time ever and also the fastest time since the world record performances in the summer of 2011 by Marino (7:45 in Austria) and Andi Raelert (7:41 in Roth). (He spoke at length about the race in his interview on the IMTalk podcast.)

Again, he seemed to be in great position for Kona. He was in the lead group after the swim. He let the „über-bikers“ do their thing on the Queen K, but finished the bike in 5th place and in a great position for a podium finish, less than four minutes behind eventual winner Frederik Van Lierde and 3rd place Sebastian Kienle. Unfortunately, his run did not go as planned and he had to DNF with nutritional issues, like a lot of other athletes this year. More about this and his plans for 2014 in my interview with Dirk.

Photo Credit: Jay Prasuhn

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