Challenge Kopenhagen 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Challenge Kopenhagen has been going on since 2010. It was won twice by Tim Berkel (who of course also holds the course record with a 8:07:39) and Rebekah Keat (women’s course record of 8:52:42). So the course is pretty quick, with a course rating of 12:54 (similar to IM Germany and IM Brazil).

Male Participants

Tim Berkel is back to defend his title, and he is the race favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tim Berkel AUS 08:28:10 08:40:36 37
2 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:33:02 08:45:35 57
3 Keegan Williams NZL 08:34:48 08:47:24 66
4 Mads Vittrup DEN 08:41:07 08:53:52 102
5 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:42:19 08:55:06 110
6 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:50:54 09:03:53 157
7 Joseph Spindler GER 08:52:30 09:05:32 171
8 Andreas Borch DEN 08:54:59 09:08:04 185
9 Egoitz Zalakain ESP 09:10:44 09:24:13 314
10 Fabian Kremser SWI 09:39:20 09:53:31 521
11 Elmar Heger GER 09:53:16 10:07:47 610
12 Chris Goodfellow GBR n/a unrated n/a
13 Jacob Frandsen DEN n/a unrated n/a
14 Ulrich Konschak GER n/a unrated n/a

After Tim Berkel, the winning odds show a number of athletes that have the potential for the top spot on the podium:

  • Tim Berkel: 46%
  • Keegan Williams: 18%
  • Jimmy Johnsen: 13%
  • Dejan Patrcevic: 11%
  • Mads Vittrup: 6%
  • Aaron Farlow: 5%

Female Participants

On the female side, Rebekah Keat is scheduled to race New York, so she’s not defending her title. In her absence, German Diana Riesler is both the top-rated athlete and the one with the best winning odds:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Diana Riesler GER 09:29:16 09:43:12 45
2 Edith Niederfriniger ITA 09:33:41 09:47:43 59
3 Lisbeth Kristensen SWI 09:36:54 09:51:01 68
4 Wenke Kujala GER 09:42:09 09:56:24 78
5 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 09:51:57 10:06:26 114
6 Katja Konschak GER 09:52:39 10:07:09 116
7 Helene Pallesen DEN 09:52:42 10:07:12 118
8 Julia Bohn GER 10:16:38 10:31:43 192
9 Jessica Crafoord SWE n/a unrated n/a

She is followed by two athletes that have had quite a long break, Edith Niderfriniger and Lisbeth Kristensen:

  • Diana Riesler: 35%
  • Edith Niederfriniger: 24%
  • Lisbeth Kristensen: 19%
  • Katja Konschak: 10%
  • Wenke Kujala: 10%
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