IM Texas 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Last year was the first time IM Texas was held. The course rating is 5:47 – comparable to South Africa or New Zealand. The premier winner on the men’s side was Eneko Llanos in 8:08:20 (followed by Tim O’Donnell and Luke Bell) and on the women’s side Catriona Morrison in 8:57:51.

Male Participants

As last year (when it was the US Championships and a 400 points race), IM Texas managed to draw a pretty strong field (even if it “only” a 2000 points race):

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Rasmus Henning DNK 08:22:30 08:27:56 10
2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:25:23 08:30:51 14
3 Paul Amey GBR 08:28:28 08:33:58 20
4 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:29:13 08:34:44 24
5 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:36:12 08:41:47 40
6 Torsten Abel GER 08:39:47 08:45:24 57
7 Jozsef Major HUN 08:42:40 08:48:19 80
8 Justin Daerr USA 08:45:54 08:51:35 93
9 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:53:14 08:59:00 129
10 Christian Brader GER 08:55:29 09:01:17 146
11 Matthew Russell USA 09:01:22 09:07:13 175
12 Brandon Marsh USA 09:02:20 09:08:12 183
13 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:02:26 09:08:18 185
14 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:08:47 09:14:43 228
15 Erich Kunz SUI 09:11:52 09:17:50 259
16 Scott Defilippis USA 09:17:51 09:23:53 308
17 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:18:22 09:24:24 313
18 Olly Piggin CAN 09:19:17 09:25:20 316
19 Anthony Toth CAN 09:24:31 09:30:38 361
20 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:27:47 09:33:56 381
21 Mac Brown USA 09:38:31 09:44:47 457
22 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:07:21 10:13:55 647
23 Jim Lamastra n/a unrated n/a
24 Robert Wade n/a unrated n/a
25 Benoit Bourguet n/a unrated n/a
26 Jonathan Shearon n/a unrated n/a
27 Alex Weber n/a unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds:

  • Jordan Rapp: 33%
  • Paul Amey: 26%
  • Rasmus Henning: 23%
  • Maxim Kriat: 6%
  • Mathias Hecht: 6%

Rasmus Henning is the top rated athlete, but he has had some weaker results on the IM distance (especially in Hawaii) which hurt his winning odds. However, he seems to have figured out some of the issues that were plaguing him, as evidenced by his win in Abu Dhabi. Still, I would consider Jordan Rapp as the favorite for the race. He has recovered well from his horrendous bike accident as has shown great form in Wildflower. Paul Amey will be able to show that his strong IM Arizona (when he pushed Eneko Llanos to the finish and nearly managed to go sub-8) was not a fluke. Maxim Kriat is another interesting athlete with a lot of potential. He comes from a short-course background and did IM Floria in 2009 and 2011, both times finishing second. Then there is Mathias Hecht, the winner of St. George in 2011. Lots of potential winners!

Female Participants

On the women’s side, the field mostly comes from the USA:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:15:28 09:21:29 7
2 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:20:26 09:26:30 10
3 Amy Marsh USA 09:24:46 09:30:53 20
4 Caitlin Snow USA 09:32:12 09:38:23 35
5 Corinne Abraham USA 09:43:36 09:49:55 59
6 Caroline Gregory USA 10:01:51 10:08:22 115
7 Charisa Wernick USA 10:05:46 10:12:19 133
8 Sarah Piampiano 10:06:25 10:12:59 135
9 Marilyn McDonald CAN 10:14:07 10:20:46 163
10 Cindy Lewis 10:20:53 10:27:36 182
11 Tami Ritchie 10:34:55 10:41:47 211
12 Amanda McKenzie USA 10:52:52 10:59:56 242
13 Sandra Soldan n/a unrated n/a
14 Jackie Pearce n/a unrated n/a

The winning odds for the females look as follows:

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 40%
  • Amy Marsh: 27%
  • Caitlin Snow: 18%
  • Kathleen Calkins: 11%

Mary Beth Ellis is the clear favorite – after winning three Ironman races last summer to qualify for Kona, she hopefully manages to qualify in fewer races this year so she can properly prepare for Kona. Amy Marsh also has three Ironman wins to her name , while Caitlin Snow will look to win her first one. Kathleen Calkins is a name that most people will not be familiar with – she only has one Ironman pro result (a 7th place in IM Arizona 2011 in 9:12), but she has a lot of experience racing as an age grouper and winning the F30-34 age group in Hawaii.

Corrections:

  • Amy pointed out on Twitter she has four IM wins – I missed IM China which I don’t have in my results.
  • As Cait pointed out on twitter, she has won an Ironman before: She won IM Lake Placid under her maiden name of “Shea-Kenney”. I have now connected these two “dots” in my data, but it doesn’t really change my predictions.

Thanks to Amy and Cait for pointing out these errors – and sorry for missing your wins.

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