IM Florida 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

This weekend we have the first Ironman race after Kona. The race has attracted quite a large Pro field (48 male and 26 female Pros), and some athletes have jumped in to get an early start for Kona 2013 qualification.

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Update (Oct 31): Thanks to TriLounge, there were a lot of changes in the start list in the last few days. (I had caught Rinnie and MBK, but there was a lot more.) I’ve crossed out a few non starters and added the names and ratings of some additions.

Another Update (Nov 1): James Cunnama will not be racing Florida. He tweeted: “Late entry and even later withdrawal. Following minor illness 10 days ago decided to focus solely on Cozumel Ironman.”

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SWI 00:51:18 04:19:55 02:43:47 07:59:42
2 Maxim Kriat UKR 00:51:10 04:29:30 02:44:35 08:10:43
3 Justin Daerr USA 00:54:45 04:29:52 02:48:33 08:18:02

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jessica Jacobs USA 01:02:03 04:53:42 02:53:26 08:55:10
2 Mackenzie Madison USA 01:00:19 05:00:05 03:03:21 09:10:21
3 Sofie Goos BEL 00:56:45 05:04:03 03:16:38 09:22:21

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:59:42 Ronnie Schildknecht 2011-11-05
Swim overall 00:44:36 John Flanagan 2011-11-05
Bike overall 04:19:00 Tom Evans 2008-11-01
Run overall 02:42:55 Mads Vittrup 2011-11-05
Total female 08:55:10 Jessica Jacobs 2011-11-05
Swim female 00:50:26 Tereza Macel 2007-11-03
Bike female 04:47:59 Tyler Stewart 2007-11-03
Run female 02:53:26 Jessica Jacobs 2011-11-05

Course Rating

Course Rating for IM Florida is 14:56.

Race Adjustments for IM Florida

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating
2005 10:47 -01:46 30 10:47 -01:46
2006 09:29 -03:36 41 10:08 -02:41
2007 17:13 -00:43 69 12:30 -02:02
2008 20:52 -01:18 46 14:35 -01:51
2009 12:41 n/a 32 14:12 n/a
2010 11:05 -00:51 33 13:41 -01:39
2011 22:28 -01:21 31 14:56 -01:36

Male Race Participants

After coming into form late in the year (as evidenced by winning IM Sweden), Jan Raphael will try to repeat his 2006 win:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Jan Raphael GER 08:21:20 08:35:36 29
2 Jens Petersen-Bach DNK 08:24:31 08:38:52 41
3 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:28:16 08:42:44 53
4 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:30:47 08:45:19 69
5 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:33:13 08:47:49 82
6 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:36:46 08:51:28 102
7 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:37:16 08:51:59 106
8 Jonas Djurback SWE 08:38:52 08:53:38 117
9 Nick Waninger USA 08:40:21 08:55:09 124
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:40:24 08:55:12 125
11 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:45:58 09:00:56 155
12 Alexander Grigoryev RUS 08:48:18 09:03:20 169
13 David Naesvik SWE 08:49:00 09:04:03 176
14 Daniel Bretscher USA 08:53:04 09:08:14 209
15 Andreas Fuchs AUT 08:54:21 09:09:33 220
16 Daniel Schmoll GER 08:56:02 09:11:17 234
17 Dan Brown PHI 08:58:01 09:13:19 240
18 Jose Jeuland FRA 08:58:34 09:13:53 244
19 Scott Defilippis USA 09:00:13 09:15:35 258
20 Brad Seng USA 09:04:03 09:19:32 291
21 Nikolaus Wihlidal AUT 09:05:06 09:20:37 302
22 Peter Kotland USA 09:13:20 09:29:05 361
23 Erik-Simon Strijk NDL 09:13:39 09:29:24 366
24 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:15:04 09:30:52 373
25 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:20:25 09:36:22 411
26 Timothy Tapply USA 09:21:02 09:37:00 416
27 Blake Becker USA 09:26:04 09:42:10 444
28 Alfred Rahm GER 09:27:13 09:43:21 455
29 Ryan Cain CAN 09:29:29 09:45:41 476
30 Timothy Beardall AUS 09:29:32 09:45:44 477
31 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:36:13 09:52:37 520
32 Raymond Botelho USA 09:36:55 09:53:20 528
33 Bojan Maric SCG 09:55:30 10:12:27 635
34 Sean Donnelly GER 10:01:03 10:18:09 663
35 Mike Hermanson USA 10:09:49 10:27:10 701
36 Reinaldo Oliveira BRA 10:10:51 10:28:14 703
37 Andrew Hodges USA 10:14:35 10:32:04 713
38 Richard Wygand BRA 10:30:26 10:48:22 763
39 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:36:53 11:56:43 834
40 David Plese n/a unrated n/a
41 Denis Chevrot n/a unrated n/a
42 James Mccurdy n/a unrated n/a
43 Brandon Jessop USA n/a unrated n/a
44 Alun Woodward n/a unrated n/a
45 Jose Rosales-Yepez n/a unrated n/a
46 Erik Strand SWE n/a unrated n/a
47 Rodrigo Faria n/a unrated n/a
48 Gabriel Raff n/a unrated n/a

The following athletes have been added to the start list:

  • James Cunnama: 08:38:32
  • Stefan Riesen: 08:54:32
  • Georg Swoboda: 09:03:40
  • Andi Fuchs: 09:14:43
  • Olly Piggin: 09:18:55
  • Kyle Pawlaczyk: 09:36:37
  • Andy Starykowicz: unrated

Female Race Participants

The two best rated athletes (Rinnie and MBK) are late additions – they have not made it to the “official” (but probably outdated) start list, but have committed on social media to race in Florida:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:53:43 09:08:54 2
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:15:57 09:31:46 25
3 Carrie Lester AUS 09:18:39 09:34:33 30
4 Nina Kraft GER 09:19:38 09:35:33 34
5 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 09:30:51 09:47:05 61
6 Asa Lundström SWE 09:33:14 09:49:33 71
7 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:38:49 09:55:17 84
8 Jackie Arendt USA 09:40:20 09:56:51 89
9 Uli Bromme USA 09:40:51 09:57:23 91
10 Jennie Hansen USA 09:40:57 09:57:29 92
11 Kristin Lie NOR 09:52:38 10:09:30 134
12 Yvette Grice GBR 09:54:42 10:11:37 141
13 Rebekka Essmüller GER 09:55:53 10:12:50 142
14 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:56:49 10:13:48 146
15 Suzanne Serpico USA 09:58:11 10:15:12 151
16 Stephanie Jones USA 10:01:20 10:18:26 161
17 Kelly Fillnow USA 10:03:29 10:20:39 168
18 Katya Meyers USA 10:05:48 10:23:02 176
19 Ann Ciaverella 10:39:37 10:57:49 247
20 Natasha Van der merwe n/a unrated n/a
21 Missy Kuck n/a unrated n/a
22 Morgin Chaffin n/a unrated n/a
23 Jessica Meyers   n/a unrated n/a
24 Emelie Gunnarsson n/a unrated n/a
25 Heather Leiggi n/a unrated n/a
26 Ashley Clifford n/a unrated n/a

The following athletes have been added to the start list:

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 09:18:34
  • Jeanne Collonge: 10:02:43
  • Eva Nystrom: 10:09:43
  • Sandra Soldan: 10:53:58

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Jan Raphael: 54% (1-1)
  • Georg Potrebitsch: 16% (5-1)
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 13% (7-1)
  • Jonas Djurback: 4% (21-1)
  • Christophe Bastie: 4% (26-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 4% (26-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 2% (64-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 58% (1-1)
  • Jessica Jacobs: 16% (5-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 13% (7-1)
  • Nina Kraft: 4% (23-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 4% (26-1)
  • Heleen Bij De Vaate: 3% (38-1)
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