Challenge Wanaka 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Challenge Wanaka is a smaller race slowly building on the image of a very beautiful location starting with a really cold swim in an alpine lake. It is one of the slower courses with a rating of 3:23. Last year’s races were won by Jamie Whyte (9:03:53) and Belinda Granger (10:26:17) – slower times that are not really representative of the course, so I’m expecting faster times this year.

Male Participants

Jamie Whyte is back to defend his title, but he faces a number of probably stronger racers:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:41:07 08:44:24 45
2 Kieran Doe NZL 08:42:32 08:45:49 57
3 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:42:46 08:46:03 58
4 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:46:21 08:49:40 84
5 Keegan Williams NZL 08:48:41 08:52:01 95
6 Jamie Whyte NZL 08:54:24 08:57:46 121
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:54:37 08:57:59 123
8 Leon Griffin AUS 08:58:37 09:02:00 147
9 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:10:48 09:14:16 224
10 Marc Pschebizin GER 09:14:08 09:17:37 255
11 Scott Defilippis USA 09:22:59 09:26:32 329
12 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:24:25 09:27:58 342
13 Simon Cochrane NZL n/a unrated n/a

Here’s a look at the winning odds:

  • Kieran Doe: 25%
  • Aaron Farlow: 19%
  • Courtney Ogden: 18%
  • Jimmy Johnsen: 11%
  • Keegan Williams: 9%
  • Bryan Rhodes: 8%

Kieran has not had any results in 2011, so it’ll be interesting to see  how  he is going to perform. He does not have the top rating, but is a strong racer with a number of great results. If he runs into issues, Aaron Farlow and Courtney Ogden are going to fight for the won.

Female Participants

The women’s field is almost as large as the men’s field:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:25:07 09:28:40 10
2 Gina Crawford NZL 09:34:19 09:37:56 29
3 Candice Hammond NZL 09:48:42 09:52:24 64
4 Britta Martin NZL 09:52:26 09:56:10 72
5 Christie Sym AUS 09:59:43 10:03:29 90
6 Nicole Ward AUS 10:01:14 10:05:01 95
7 Simone Maier GER 10:11:29 10:15:20 142
8 Jodie Scott AUS 10:37:04 10:41:05 208
9 Jo Carrel NZL 10:47:49 10:51:54 230
10 Tamsyn Hayes NZL n/a unrated n/a
11 Julia Grant NZL n/a unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds for the women:

  • Rebekah Keat: 49%
  • Gina Crawford: 44%

These two athletes are close  enough in their capabilities and results that it’s almost impossible to pick one over the other. The rest of the field would have to show an amazing improvement to come close to Bek or Gina.

Update Jan 19th: Rebekah isn’t able to race – not sure why (she seems to prepare for racing Melbourne in March), but this means Gina is the clear front runner.

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