IM Cairns 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Cairns was held in 2011 as Challenge Cairns, and the race switched to the IM brand after WTC bought the race organizer USM Events. Last year’s race was won by Chris McCormack in 8:15:56 and Rebekah Keat in 9:26:31. The race was medium-quick with a course rating of 8:30, similar to IM France or IM Melbourne. As an Ironman, Cairns is a 2.000 points race with a large purse of 100.000 EUR (more than 130.000 US $).

Male Participants

Last year’s winner Chris McCormack is back to defend his title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McCormack AUS 08:10:54 08:18:45 3
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:20:45 08:28:45 10
3 David Dellow AUS 08:20:58 08:28:59 11
4 Todd Israel AUS 08:33:53 08:42:06 42
5 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:35:03 08:43:17 46
6 Luke Bell AUS 08:37:05 08:45:21 56
7 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:37:19 08:45:35 58
8 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:38:47 08:47:05 67
9 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:42:32 08:50:53 91
10 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:45:10 08:53:34 101
11 Matty White AUS 08:47:12 08:55:38 111
12 Jason Shortis AUS 08:47:48 08:56:14 114
13 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:49:22 08:57:50 121
14 Leon Griffin AUS 08:55:24 09:03:58 156
15 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:05:19 09:14:02 226
16 Justin Granger AUS 09:08:16 09:17:02 247
17 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:09:40 09:18:27 268
18 Finnbar Crennan AUS 09:15:07 09:24:00 307
19 Jon Woods n/a unrated n/a
20 Michael Gee n/a unrated n/a

There’s a lot of speculation surrounding Macca, his attempt to qualify for the Olympics, the controversy about the Australian nominations, his potential “backup plan” of switching to IM racing later in the year and his potential lack of long distance fitness.

The winning odds show that Macca is the clear favorite, but that it won’t be an easy win for him and he faces quite a strong field:

  • Chris McCormack: 42%
  • Cameron Brown: 23%
  • Luke Bell: 14%
  • David Dellow: 11%
  • Luke McKenzie: 5%

The field is really strong and deep – notable athletes such as Bryan Rhodes and Justin Granger are only ranked #15 and #16. We know that Macca is under a “long term contract” to race Cairns (i.e. he is paid appearance money), and it seems that fro some others KPR points and price money is not the main reason they compete in Cairns.

Female Participants

As on the men’s side, last year’s winner Rebekah Keat is back to defend her title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:18:59 09:27:55 11
2 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:25:09 09:34:11 20
3 Carrie Lester AUS 09:30:25 09:39:32 36
4 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:34:04 09:43:15 42
5 Belinda Granger AUS 09:34:13 09:43:24 45
6 Candice Hammond NZL 09:43:37 09:52:57 69
7 Belinda Harper NZL 10:01:22 10:10:59 128
8 Emi Sakai JPN 10:11:32 10:21:19 163
9 Jodie Scott AUS 10:32:25 10:42:32 212
10 Amanda McKenzie USA 10:49:56 11:00:20 244
11 Rebecca Hoschke n/a unrated n/a
12 Melissa Rollison n/a unrated n/a
13 Ange Castle n/a unrated n/a

Bek is coming back from an injury break, so even if she is (Correction: Bek wasn’t injured, in fact she just raced IM Melbourne.)
Bek is the clear favorite, but she will have to deliver a good performance to win the race:

  • Rebekah Keat: 46%
  • Joanna Lawn: 28%
  • Carrie Lester: 9%
  • Belinda Granger: 7%
  • Belinda Harper: 6%
  • Michelle Mitchell: 5%

One other athlete of note is Melissa Rollison (now Hauschildt). The 70.3 world champion will race her first IM in Cairns. It will be interesting to see if she can race smart enough on the bike in order to be able to leverage her run strength. (Update: As noted on Triathlete magazine’s website, she’s got a leg injury and will walk the run in order to validate her Kona slot after winning the 70.3 championships.)

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