IM Brazil 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Brazil is one of the quicker courses on the IM calendar. With a course rating of 12:59 it is similar to IM Germany or IM Switzerland, but still a bit slower than the really fast courses such as Austria or Roth. Last year’s race was won by Eduardo Sturla (8:13:12 – a bit short of Luke McKenzie’s course record of 8:07:38 from 2010) and Amy Marsh (9:07:49 – course record). Don’t expect any sub-8 or sub-9 finishing times!

Male Participants

The top four finishers from last year are back on the start list for 2012:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:28:06 08:40:37 35
2 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:29:30 08:42:03 41
3 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:44:04 08:56:58 116
4 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:46:56 08:59:55 132
5 Oscar Galindez ARG 08:51:18 09:04:23 160
6 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:58:16 09:11:31 207
7 Raul Furtado BRA 09:01:01 09:14:20 229
8 Lucas da silveira Pretto 09:02:32 09:15:54 236
9 Rafael Wyss SWI 09:03:07 09:16:29 242
10 Antonio Filho BRA 09:04:57 09:18:22 265
11 Mario De Elias ARG 09:05:12 09:18:37 269
12 Ivan Albano BRA 09:08:43 09:22:14 299
13 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:10:04 09:23:37 305
14 Frederico Monteiro 09:13:05 09:26:42 329
15 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:13:16 09:26:53 332
16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:30:04 09:44:06 450
17 Lucas Cocha ARG 09:30:29 09:44:32 454
18 Sandi Ivancic SLO 09:34:14 09:48:22 478
19 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:36:10 09:50:21 498
20 Christian emiliano Carletto 09:37:47 09:52:01 511
21 Santiago Amigo ARG 09:48:12 10:02:41 573
22 Ciro Violin n/a unrated n/a
23 Geovani Muchinski n/a unrated n/a
24 Thiago Vinhal n/a unrated n/a
25 Frank Silvestrin n/a unrated n/a
26 Igor Amorelli n/a unrated n/a
27 Antônio Marcos da souza da silva n/a unrated n/a
28 Gabriel Raff n/a unrated n/a
29 Rodrigo Ferreira n/a unrated n/a
30 Felipe De Oliveira Manente n/a unrated n/a
31 Guto Antunes n/a unrated n/a
32 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a
33 Frederico Carvalho Zacharias n/a unrated n/a
34 Marcio Roniak n/a unrated n/a

The winning odds show a bit different picture:

  • Eduardo Sturla: 35%
  • Ezequiel Morales: 24%
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 17%
  • Santiago Ascenco: 16%
  • Oscar Galindez: 8%

The odds put more weight on recent results, experience and performance on the course, so they are better at predicting who wins than the ratings (which predict a finishing time based on an athletes capabilities). This is why I’m giving the top-rated athlete (Santiago Ascenso) only a 16% chance to win (he only has three IM results) while the “slower” (even if only by two minutes) Eduardo Sturla (with a large number of fast results which include a couple of wins and great results in Brazil) is the overall favorite at 35%.

Female Participants

On the female side, the top rated athlete on the start list is Michelle Vesterby:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:22:18 09:36:09 26
2 Sofie Goos BEL 09:30:26 09:44:29 47
3 Kim Loeffler USA 09:33:13 09:47:20 53
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:41:52 09:56:12 75
5 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:44:57 09:59:21 85
6 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:47:16 10:01:44 89
7 Hillary Biscay USA 09:59:43 10:14:29 139
8 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:08:50 10:23:50 170
9 Ariane Monticeli BRA 10:08:55 10:23:55 171
10 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:22:37 10:37:57 200
11 Silvia Fusco BRA 10:23:12 10:38:33 202
12 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:45:21 11:01:14 247
13 Alessandra Carvalho BRA 10:47:17 11:03:13 249
14 Vanessa Gianinni BRA n/a unrated n/a

As she is probably still celebrating her win at IM Lanzarote from last week, I don’t expect her to start. This is why I have two sets of winning odds (the odds in brackets are when Michelle is actually going to start):

  • Sofie Goos: 34% (30%)
  • Dede Griesbauer: 25% (22%)
  • Kim Loeffler: 28% (18%)
  • Sara Gross: 17% (10%)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 16% (9%)
  • (Michelle Vesterby: 29%)

Even without Michelle or any “rock stars”, the race looks to be quite interesting: With Sofie Goos there is a solid athlete that has already won an IM (Florida 2009). Dede Griesbauer has a Brazil finishing record of 2-1-2 (2010, 2009 and 2007), but is coming back from an injury. Kim Loeffler and Sara Gross have a long list of races, but to the best of my knowledge haven’t won an IM yet. Hillary Biscay is another well-known racer – she will probably be happy if she manages to get another podium spot after a long (at least for her) four week break following her third place in Australia. I give her a 32% chance for that.

Update: Dede Griesbauer is not racing in Brazil this year, but hopes to win in 2013. Updated the odds.

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