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IM Sweden 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Sweden is a new race under WTC, but it was previously held as the Kalmar Triathlon. I’m not sure if they changed the course since then, but the previous results indicate that the course should be pretty quick. One particular result I remember is Clas Bjoerling winning the race in 2009 after his long illness in 8:26, so I’ll assume the winning time with a larger Pro field to be sub-8:20. It’s a 2.000 points race and there aren’t too many European IMs in August, so the race has attracted quite a large field:

Male Participants

A few athletes still looking for some Kona points in order to qualify have signed up for the race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Jan Raphael GER n/a 08:38:04 28
2 Andi Boecherer GER n/a 08:41:26 41
3 Dorian Wagner GER n/a 08:48:26 75
4 Jens Grønbek DEN n/a 08:51:33 92
5 Christophe Bastie FRA n/a 08:53:55 102
6 Anton Blokhin UKR n/a 09:00:18 137
7 Simon Billeau FRA n/a 09:00:59 144
8 Luke Dragstra USA n/a 09:01:03 146
9 Sergio Marques PRT n/a 09:03:27 155
10 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS n/a 09:06:21 180
11 Raul Furtado BRA n/a 09:08:05 189
12 Teemu Lemmettyla FIN n/a 09:10:05 205
13 David Nasvik SWE n/a 09:10:15 207
14 Jonas Djurback SWE n/a 09:17:16 260
15 Ted Aas SWE n/a 09:20:29 290
16 Paul Hawkins GBR n/a 09:21:52 301
17 Horst Reichel GER n/a 09:28:34 350
18 Heinrich Sickl AUT n/a 09:43:16 447
19 Jonas Colting SWE n/a 09:50:53 508
20 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS n/a 10:23:07 696
21 Ivan Kharin RUS n/a 11:26:25 829
22 Marek Nemcik SVK n/a 12:10:25 854
23 Ari Saukko FIN n/a unrated n/a
24 Erik Strand SWE n/a unrated n/a
25 Anu Vaidyanathan IND n/a unrated n/a
26 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE n/a unrated n/a
27 Teemu Kyllonen GBR n/a unrated n/a
28 Pontus Lindberg SWE n/a unrated n/a

Andi Boecherer finished in the TOP 10 in Kona last year and coming back from a long break after a DNF in South Africa, but statistically he is still the race favorite:

  • Andi Boecherer: 47%
  • Jan Raphael: 25%
  • Jens Grønbek: 9%
  • Dorian Wagner: 6%
  • Luke Dragstra: 5%
  • Christophe Bastie: 4%

Female Participants

On the female side, the field is not quite as string as on the men’s side:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Åsa Lundström DEN n/a 09:56:27 79
2 Dana Wagner GER n/a 10:05:29 110
3 Hillary Biscay USA n/a 10:13:34 143
4 Rebekka Essmüller GER n/a 10:15:59 150
5 Stephanie Jones USA n/a 10:21:39 168
6 Emi Sakai JPN n/a 10:36:37 204
7 Conny Dauben GER n/a 11:00:53 252
8 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN n/a 11:05:58 256
9 Christine Grammer GER n/a unrated n/a
10 Helene Malmkvist SWE n/a unrated n/a

I’m not sure why Hillary Biscay is on the official start list, I’ve heard her talk about racing in Mont Tremblant on the same weekend (but she cancelled that in order to properly rest for IM Wisconsin). Leaving her out of the odds, Asa Lundström is the clear favorite:

  • Åsa Lundström: 34%
  • Stephanie Jones: 22%
  • Dana Wagner: 22%
  • Rebekka Essmüller: 13%
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