IM Sweden 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Sweden is a new race under WTC, but it was previously held as the Kalmar Triathlon. I’m not sure if they changed the course since then, but the previous results indicate that the course should be pretty quick. One particular result I remember is Clas Bjoerling winning the race in 2009 after his long illness in 8:26, so I’ll assume the winning time with a larger Pro field to be sub-8:20. It’s a 2.000 points race and there aren’t too many European IMs in August, so the race has attracted quite a large field:

Male Participants

A few athletes still looking for some Kona points in order to qualify have signed up for the race:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Jan Raphael	GER	n/a	08:38:04	28
2	Andi Boecherer	GER	n/a	08:41:26	41
3	Dorian Wagner	GER	n/a	08:48:26	75
4	Jens Grønbek	DEN	n/a	08:51:33	92
5	Christophe Bastie	FRA	n/a	08:53:55	102
6	Anton Blokhin	UKR	n/a	09:00:18	137
7	Simon Billeau	FRA	n/a	09:00:59	144
8	Luke Dragstra	USA	n/a	09:01:03	146
9	Sergio Marques	PRT	n/a	09:03:27	155
10	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	n/a	09:06:21	180
11	Raul Furtado	BRA	n/a	09:08:05	189
12	Teemu Lemmettyla	FIN	n/a	09:10:05	205
13	David Nasvik	SWE	n/a	09:10:15	207
14	Jonas Djurback	SWE	n/a	09:17:16	260
15	Ted Aas	SWE	n/a	09:20:29	290
16	Paul Hawkins	GBR	n/a	09:21:52	301
17	Horst Reichel	GER	n/a	09:28:34	350
18	Heinrich Sickl	AUT	n/a	09:43:16	447
19	Jonas Colting	SWE	n/a	09:50:53	508
20	Evgeniy Nikitin	RUS	n/a	10:23:07	696
21	Ivan Kharin	RUS	n/a	11:26:25	829
22	Marek Nemcik	SVK	n/a	12:10:25	854
23	Ari Saukko	FIN	n/a	unrated	n/a
24	Erik Strand	SWE	n/a	unrated	n/a
25	Anu Vaidyanathan	IND	n/a	unrated	n/a
26	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	n/a	unrated	n/a
27	Teemu Kyllonen	GBR	n/a	unrated	n/a
28	Pontus Lindberg	SWE	n/a	unrated	n/a

Andi Boecherer finished in the TOP 10 in Kona last year and coming back from a long break after a DNF in South Africa, but statistically he is still the race favorite:

• Andi Boecherer: 47%
• Jan Raphael: 25%
• Jens Grønbek: 9%
• Dorian Wagner: 6%
• Luke Dragstra: 5%
• Christophe Bastie: 4%

Female Participants

On the female side, the field is not quite as string as on the men’s side:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Åsa Lundström	DEN	n/a	09:56:27	79
2	Dana Wagner	GER	n/a	10:05:29	110
3	Hillary Biscay	USA	n/a	10:13:34	143
4	Rebekka Essmüller	GER	n/a	10:15:59	150
5	Stephanie Jones	USA	n/a	10:21:39	168
6	Emi Sakai	JPN	n/a	10:36:37	204
7	Conny Dauben	GER	n/a	11:00:53	252
8	Zsuzsanna Harsanyi	HUN	n/a	11:05:58	256
9	Christine Grammer	GER	n/a	unrated	n/a
10	Helene Malmkvist	SWE	n/a	unrated	n/a

I’m not sure why Hillary Biscay is on the official start list, I’ve heard her talk about racing in Mont Tremblant on the same weekend (but she cancelled that in order to properly rest for IM Wisconsin). Leaving her out of the odds, Asa Lundström is the clear favorite:

• Åsa Lundström: 34%
• Stephanie Jones: 22%
• Dana Wagner: 22%
• Rebekka Essmüller: 13%