Ironman Brasil 2014 (May 25th) – Predictions

Update: When writing this post, I had missed that Lisa Ribes is now married and changed her name to Lisa Roberts. I’ve added her rating into the table and used them in calculating the updated odds.

You can submit your top picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Olaf Sabatschus (GER) 08:50:37 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 09:31:43
2006 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:15:19 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:20:47
2007 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:21:09 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:12:40
2008 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:28:24 Fernanda Keller (BRA) 09:42:50
2009 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:39 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:10:15
2010 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:07:38 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:19:12
2011 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:12 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:07:49
2012 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:22:40 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:17:42
2013 Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 08:01:32 Amanda Stevens (USA) 09:05:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:44:24 04:22:23 02:50:18 08:01:32
2 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:46:20 04:33:47 02:54:17 08:19:40
3 Stefan Schmid GER 00:50:53 04:32:44 02:56:04 08:25:02

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Amanda Stevens USA 00:48:44 04:51:29 03:20:05 09:05:53
2 Sara Gross CAN 00:52:30 05:01:27 03:09:44 09:08:38
3 Jessie Donavan USA 00:59:49 04:50:29 03:15:07 09:10:29

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:01:32 Timothy O’Donnell 2013-05-26
Swim overall 00:42:26 Luke McKenzie 2010-05-30
Bike overall 04:22:23 Timothy O’Donnell 2013-05-26
Run overall 02:49:31 Ezequiel Morales 2010-05-30
Total female 09:05:53 Amanda Stevens 2013-05-26
Swim female 00:45:48 Dede Griesbauer 2010-05-30
Bike female 04:48:10 Silvia Felt 2013-05-26
Run female 03:09:44 Sara Gross 2013-05-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 18:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 17:56 01:58 04:03 00:53 21 17:56 01:58 04:03 00:53
2007 14:49 -00:15 07:08 03:08 24 16:22 00:51 05:36 02:00
2008 10:01 -06:37 11:37 01:20 25 14:15 -01:38 07:36 01:47
2009 21:12 -00:29 09:56 03:54 25 15:59 -01:21 08:11 02:19
2010 22:18 04:14 09:56 00:33 36 17:15 -00:14 08:32 01:58
2011 21:15 n/a n/a n/a 26 17:55 -00:14 08:32 01:58
2012 17:16 02:25 21:28 -04:11 23 17:50 00:13 10:41 00:56
2013 19:13 02:39 16:07 04:04 33 18:00 00:33 11:28 01:23

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:23:31 08:40:53 00:47:56 04:45:16 03:03:33 46
2 20 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:24:50 08:42:14 00:50:27 04:50:05 02:54:07 (50)
3 31 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:28:12 08:45:43 00:50:56 04:49:57 03:02:41 58
4 33 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:36:01 08:53:48 00:52:29 04:56:35 02:59:54 98
5 8 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:39:14 08:57:08 00:49:32 05:03:08 03:05:05 111
6 26 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:40:15 08:58:11 00:54:51 04:52:49 03:03:37 121
7 34 Mario De Elias ARG 08:41:58 08:59:58 00:51:22 04:59:45 03:07:19 125
8 19 Keegan Williams NZL 08:44:33 09:02:38 00:52:32 04:52:59 03:10:42 143
9 15 Timothy Marr USA 08:46:09 09:04:17 00:57:00 05:02:28 03:23:56 (149)
10 29 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:48:03 09:06:15 00:55:05 04:53:52 03:03:33 (159)
11 21 Lucas Cocha ARG 08:48:23 09:06:36 00:49:21 04:59:38 03:16:06 159
12 18 AJ Baucco USA 08:48:50 09:07:04 00:52:35 04:50:32 03:12:34 (162)
13 30 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 08:53:25 09:11:49 00:46:26 05:02:23 03:19:05 179
14 22 Ciro Violin BRA 08:59:13 09:17:48 00:51:11 05:02:35 03:17:58 199
15 24 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:59:29 09:18:05 00:47:00 04:48:14 03:38:30 201
16 14 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:00:21 09:18:59 00:52:48 05:23:07 03:12:48 (203)
17 13 Raul Furtado BRA 09:01:05 09:19:44 00:52:57 04:51:48 03:28:52 204
18 10 James Brown GBR 09:09:05 09:28:01 01:01:11 05:00:21 03:14:46 234
19 9 Blake Becker USA 09:11:36 09:30:37 00:53:15 05:01:06 03:32:51 243
20 27 Christian Carletto ARG 09:28:11 09:47:46 00:55:18 05:15:45 03:30:03 309
21 25 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:35:28 09:55:19 00:53:27 05:05:10 03:38:44 (331)
22 7 Benjamin Munizaga CHI 09:42:10 10:02:14 00:51:15 05:05:25 03:48:50 (356)
23 16 Richard Wygand BRA 10:19:47 10:41:09 01:04:46 05:29:02 03:58:20 419
24 32 Marcio Roniak BRA 11:22:16 11:45:47 01:12:36 05:45:52 04:32:03 (435)
3 Alexandre Aguiar Moura BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Luan Ortiz Silva BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Frank Souza BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
6 Juraci Moreira Jr. BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
28 Santiago Rodriguez URU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Edmilson Pereira BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
4 Roberto Rivera CHL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
5 Anderson Agenor Santos BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Raphael Galvao Menezes dos santos BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 53 Jessie Donavan USA 09:17:03 09:36:15 01:07:17 05:06:36 03:15:05 27
2 65 Sofie Goos BEL 09:21:02 09:40:23 00:55:33 05:19:13 03:20:40 35
3 56 Lisa Roberts USA 09:22:05 09:41:27 01:04:29 05:18:15 03:12:24 44
4 58 Lucie Reed CZE 09:27:27 09:47:01 00:51:01 05:20:54 03:29:45 52
5 62 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:37:31 09:57:26 01:02:44 05:34:34 03:20:32 76
6 59 Vanessa Gianinni BRA 09:39:30 09:59:29 00:55:14 05:27:14 03:26:50 (80)
7 63 Heidi Sessner GER 09:44:28 10:04:37 00:56:44 05:32:42 03:32:04 91
8 52 Sara Gross CAN 09:47:06 10:07:21 00:57:18 05:43:21 03:22:38 92
9 64 Jacqui Gordon USA 09:53:31 10:13:59 01:00:26 05:28:56 03:36:52 105
10 60 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 10:02:29 10:23:15 00:55:25 05:24:28 03:53:25 122
11 57 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:03:15 10:24:03 01:01:08 05:33:58 03:53:13 126
12 61 Federica Frontini URU 10:23:18 10:44:47 01:09:07 05:42:36 03:48:34 (142)
13 55 Conny Dauben GER 10:36:41 10:58:38 01:08:36 05:43:01 03:59:12 146
14 54 Fernanda Garcia BRA 10:50:33 11:12:59 00:57:10 06:00:10 03:55:27 (150)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the raw numbers, Marcel Zamora is the favorite – he has won IM France a five times, but he hasn’t raced an Ironman since 2011 and it’s not clear what he is still able to do. He faces a strong contingent of South American athletes such as Ezequiel Morales (winner in 2012), Igor Amorelli (second last year and 13th in Kona), Santiago Ascenso (always racing well in his home race) or Guilherme Manocchio (who placed as high as 2nd in 2011).

  • Marcel Zamora: 43% (1-1)
  • Ezequiel Morales: 22% (3-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 16% (5-1)
  • Santiago Ascenco: 6% (16-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 5% (18-1)

Female Race Participants

A female Brazilian winner is unlikely – with almost equal chances between American Jessie Donavan (3rd last year and recently 4th in South Africa), Czech/South African Lucie Reed (Zelenkova), Canadian Sara Gross (2nd last year, but coming off a string of DNFs) and Belgian Sofie Goos.

  • Jessie Donavan: 24% (3-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 23% (3-1)
  • Sara Gross: 19% (4-1)
  • Sofie Goos: 18% (4-1)
  • Lisa Roberts: 13% (7-1)
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