Ironman Brasil 2014 (May 25th) – Predictions

Update: When writing this post, I had missed that Lisa Ribes is now married and changed her name to Lisa Roberts. I’ve added her rating into the table and used them in calculating the updated odds.

You can submit your top picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes!

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Olaf Sabatschus (GER)	08:50:37	Joanna Zeiger (USA)	09:31:43
2006	Oscar Galindez (ARG)	08:15:19	Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN)	09:20:47
2007	Oscar Galindez (ARG)	08:21:09	Nina Kraft (GER)	09:12:40
2008	Eduardo Sturla (ARG)	08:28:24	Fernanda Keller (BRA)	09:42:50
2009	Eduardo Sturla (ARG)	08:13:39	Dede Griesbauer (USA)	09:10:15
2010	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	08:07:38	Tereza Macel (CZE)	09:19:12
2011	Eduardo Sturla (ARG)	08:13:12	Amy Marsh (USA)	09:07:49
2012	Ezequiel Morales (ARG)	08:22:40	Sofie Goos (BEL)	09:17:42
2013	Timothy O’Donnell (USA)	08:01:32	Amanda Stevens (USA)	09:05:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	00:44:24	04:22:23	02:50:18	08:01:32
2	Igor Amorelli	BRA	00:46:20	04:33:47	02:54:17	08:19:40
3	Stefan Schmid	GER	00:50:53	04:32:44	02:56:04	08:25:02

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Amanda Stevens	USA	00:48:44	04:51:29	03:20:05	09:05:53
2	Sara Gross	CAN	00:52:30	05:01:27	03:09:44	09:08:38
3	Jessie Donavan	USA	00:59:49	04:50:29	03:15:07	09:10:29

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:01:32	Timothy O’Donnell	2013-05-26
Swim	overall	00:42:26	Luke McKenzie	2010-05-30
Bike	overall	04:22:23	Timothy O’Donnell	2013-05-26
Run	overall	02:49:31	Ezequiel Morales	2010-05-30
Total	female	09:05:53	Amanda Stevens	2013-05-26
Swim	female	00:45:48	Dede Griesbauer	2010-05-30
Bike	female	04:48:10	Silvia Felt	2013-05-26
Run	female	03:09:44	Sara Gross	2013-05-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 18:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	1	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
2006	17:56	01:58	04:03	00:53	21	17:56	01:58	04:03	00:53
2007	14:49	-00:15	07:08	03:08	24	16:22	00:51	05:36	02:00
2008	10:01	-06:37	11:37	01:20	25	14:15	-01:38	07:36	01:47
2009	21:12	-00:29	09:56	03:54	25	15:59	-01:21	08:11	02:19
2010	22:18	04:14	09:56	00:33	36	17:15	-00:14	08:32	01:58
2011	21:15	n/a	n/a	n/a	26	17:55	-00:14	08:32	01:58
2012	17:16	02:25	21:28	-04:11	23	17:50	00:13	10:41	00:56
2013	19:13	02:39	16:07	04:04	33	18:00	00:33	11:28	01:23

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	2	Igor Amorelli	BRA	08:23:31	08:40:53	00:47:56	04:45:16	03:03:33	46
2	20	Marcel Zamora	ESP	08:24:50	08:42:14	00:50:27	04:50:05	02:54:07	(50)
3	31	Santiago Ascenco	BRA	08:28:12	08:45:43	00:50:56	04:49:57	03:02:41	58
4	33	Ezequiel Morales	ARG	08:36:01	08:53:48	00:52:29	04:56:35	02:59:54	98
5	8	Guilherme Manocchio	BRA	08:39:14	08:57:08	00:49:32	05:03:08	03:05:05	111
6	26	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:40:15	08:58:11	00:54:51	04:52:49	03:03:37	121
7	34	Mario De Elias	ARG	08:41:58	08:59:58	00:51:22	04:59:45	03:07:19	125
8	19	Keegan Williams	NZL	08:44:33	09:02:38	00:52:32	04:52:59	03:10:42	143
9	15	Timothy Marr	USA	08:46:09	09:04:17	00:57:00	05:02:28	03:23:56	(149)
10	29	Michael Davidson	ZAF	08:48:03	09:06:15	00:55:05	04:53:52	03:03:33	(159)
11	21	Lucas Cocha	ARG	08:48:23	09:06:36	00:49:21	04:59:38	03:16:06	159
12	18	AJ Baucco	USA	08:48:50	09:07:04	00:52:35	04:50:32	03:12:34	(162)
13	30	Luiz Francisco Ferreira	BRA	08:53:25	09:11:49	00:46:26	05:02:23	03:19:05	179
14	22	Ciro Violin	BRA	08:59:13	09:17:48	00:51:11	05:02:35	03:17:58	199
15	24	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:59:29	09:18:05	00:47:00	04:48:14	03:38:30	201
16	14	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	09:00:21	09:18:59	00:52:48	05:23:07	03:12:48	(203)
17	13	Raul Furtado	BRA	09:01:05	09:19:44	00:52:57	04:51:48	03:28:52	204
18	10	James Brown	GBR	09:09:05	09:28:01	01:01:11	05:00:21	03:14:46	234
19	9	Blake Becker	USA	09:11:36	09:30:37	00:53:15	05:01:06	03:32:51	243
20	27	Christian Carletto	ARG	09:28:11	09:47:46	00:55:18	05:15:45	03:30:03	309
21	25	Felipe De Oliveira Manente	BRA	09:35:28	09:55:19	00:53:27	05:05:10	03:38:44	(331)
22	7	Benjamin Munizaga	CHI	09:42:10	10:02:14	00:51:15	05:05:25	03:48:50	(356)
23	16	Richard Wygand	BRA	10:19:47	10:41:09	01:04:46	05:29:02	03:58:20	419
24	32	Marcio Roniak	BRA	11:22:16	11:45:47	01:12:36	05:45:52	04:32:03	(435)
	3	Alexandre Aguiar Moura	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	11	Luan Ortiz Silva	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	23	Frank Souza	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	6	Juraci Moreira Jr.	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	28	Santiago Rodriguez	URU	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	17	Edmilson Pereira	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	4	Roberto Rivera	CHL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	5	Anderson Agenor Santos	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	12	Raphael Galvao Menezes dos santos	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	53	Jessie Donavan	USA	09:17:03	09:36:15	01:07:17	05:06:36	03:15:05	27
2	65	Sofie Goos	BEL	09:21:02	09:40:23	00:55:33	05:19:13	03:20:40	35
3	56	Lisa Roberts	USA	09:22:05	09:41:27	01:04:29	05:18:15	03:12:24	44
4	58	Lucie Reed	CZE	09:27:27	09:47:01	00:51:01	05:20:54	03:29:45	52
5	62	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	09:37:31	09:57:26	01:02:44	05:34:34	03:20:32	76
6	59	Vanessa Gianinni	BRA	09:39:30	09:59:29	00:55:14	05:27:14	03:26:50	(80)
7	63	Heidi Sessner	GER	09:44:28	10:04:37	00:56:44	05:32:42	03:32:04	91
8	52	Sara Gross	CAN	09:47:06	10:07:21	00:57:18	05:43:21	03:22:38	92
9	64	Jacqui Gordon	USA	09:53:31	10:13:59	01:00:26	05:28:56	03:36:52	105
10	60	Ana Lidia Borba	BRA	10:02:29	10:23:15	00:55:25	05:24:28	03:53:25	122
11	57	Mariana Andrade	BRA	10:03:15	10:24:03	01:01:08	05:33:58	03:53:13	126
12	61	Federica Frontini	URU	10:23:18	10:44:47	01:09:07	05:42:36	03:48:34	(142)
13	55	Conny Dauben	GER	10:36:41	10:58:38	01:08:36	05:43:01	03:59:12	146
14	54	Fernanda Garcia	BRA	10:50:33	11:12:59	00:57:10	06:00:10	03:55:27	(150)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the raw numbers, Marcel Zamora is the favorite – he has won IM France a five times, but he hasn’t raced an Ironman since 2011 and it’s not clear what he is still able to do. He faces a strong contingent of South American athletes such as Ezequiel Morales (winner in 2012), Igor Amorelli (second last year and 13th in Kona), Santiago Ascenso (always racing well in his home race) or Guilherme Manocchio (who placed as high as 2nd in 2011).

• Marcel Zamora: 43% (1-1)
• Ezequiel Morales: 22% (3-1)
• Igor Amorelli: 16% (5-1)
• Santiago Ascenco: 6% (16-1)
• Guilherme Manocchio: 5% (18-1)

Female Race Participants

A female Brazilian winner is unlikely – with almost equal chances between American Jessie Donavan (3rd last year and recently 4th in South Africa), Czech/South African Lucie Reed (Zelenkova), Canadian Sara Gross (2nd last year, but coming off a string of DNFs) and Belgian Sofie Goos.

• Jessie Donavan: 24% (3-1)
• Lucie Reed: 23% (3-1)
• Sara Gross: 19% (4-1)
• Sofie Goos: 18% (4-1)
• Lisa Roberts: 13% (7-1)