Ironman Cairns 2018 (June 10th) – Seedings

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:56 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:26:31
2012 David Dellow (AUS) 08:15:04 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:21:00
2013 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:17:43 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:19:51
2014 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:16:58
2015 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:18:01 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:11:49
2016 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:15:03 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:06:18
2017 Josh Amberger (AUS) 08:02:17 Sarah Crowley (AUS) 08:58:14

Last Year’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to the full results and my analysis of IM Cairns 2017.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Josh Amberger AUS 00:47:15 04:17:29 02:53:26 08:02:17
2 Joe Gambles AUS 00:50:02 04:25:19 02:44:30 08:04:03
3 Braden Currie NZL 00:49:46 04:26:12 02:47:56 08:07:46

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:57:06 04:50:00 03:06:01 08:58:14
2 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:05:38 04:52:58 03:02:49 09:08:20
3 Kristin Moeller GER 01:05:22 05:00:50 03:03:29 09:14:08

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:02:17 Josh Amberger 2017-06-11
Swim overall 00:43:48 Clayton Fettell 2011-06-05
Bike overall 04:15:13 Cameron Wurf 2017-06-11
Run overall 02:44:24 Tim Van Berkel 2013-06-01
Total female 08:58:14 Sarah Crowley 2017-06-11
Swim female 00:49:06 Jodie Cunnama 2016-06-12
Bike female 04:50:00 Sarah Crowley 2017-06-11
Run female 03:02:01 Linsey Corbin 2016-06-12

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 05:10.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 06:26 01:41 03:54 01:36 16 06:26 01:41 03:54 01:36
2012 06:49 -00:44 08:11 -01:50 22 06:37 00:28 06:02 -00:07
2013 02:58 -01:34 08:26 -05:54 16 05:24 -00:12 06:50 -02:03
2014 04:15 -02:18 03:33 02:35 16 of 21 05:07 -00:44 06:01 -00:53
2015 06:14 01:44 04:18 00:00 16 of 19 05:20 -00:14 05:40 -00:43
2016 -02:45 -00:12 03:18 03:15 28 of 36 03:59 -00:14 05:17 -00:03
2017 12:14 -01:01 15:23 04:00 29 of 40 05:10 -00:21 06:43 00:32

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 35% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:10:58 08:18:54 00:48:34 04:25:11 05:18:45 02:52:13 61% +27% -13% (16) 13
2 6 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:14:05 08:20:52 00:48:20 04:31:19 05:24:39 02:49:26 84% +9% -7% (24) 16
3 5 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:14:08 08:22:07 00:47:51 04:26:35 05:19:26 02:54:42 48% +31% -21% (16) 20
4 11 David Dellow AUS 08:17:00 08:29:15 00:47:58 04:31:25 05:24:23 02:52:37 58% +1% -41% (19) 41
5 15 Mike Phillips * NZL 08:17:15 08:27:21 00:50:01 04:27:44 05:22:45 02:54:30 66% +34% -0% (3) 33
6 3 Braden Currie NZL 08:17:59 08:34:51 00:48:16 04:32:53 05:26:10 02:51:49 27% +18% -55% (5) 63
7 2 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:20:08 08:28:06 00:48:33 04:26:20 05:19:54 03:00:14 61% +11% -27% (31) 36
8 10 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:22:23 08:30:41 00:50:10 04:17:58 05:13:08 03:09:15 53% +36% -10% (10) 50
9 8 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:23:17 08:28:16 00:50:00 04:34:08 05:29:08 02:54:09 71% +10% -19% (15) 37
10 19 Michael Fox AUS 08:24:40 08:42:16 00:48:12 04:35:06 05:28:19 02:56:21 66% +9% -25% (7) 84
11 9 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:26:04 08:29:59 00:49:18 04:29:00 05:23:18 03:02:46 87% +0% -13% (34) 45
12 7 Tim Reed AUS 08:26:19 08:30:49 00:49:07 04:33:32 05:27:40 02:58:39 54% +19% -27% (7) 52
13 22 David Plese SLO 08:27:48 08:30:01 00:53:30 04:35:01 05:33:30 02:54:18 79% +7% -13% (24) 46
14 14 Callum Millward NZL 08:28:58 08:34:25 00:49:45 04:36:14 05:30:59 02:57:59 77% +0% -23% (10) 62
15 17 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:30:17 08:39:15 00:47:52 04:38:29 05:31:22 02:58:55 65% +4% -32% (14) 78
16 28 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:32:14 08:45:36 00:49:15 04:42:28 05:36:43 02:55:31 47% +47% -6% (14) 92
17 12 Daniil Sapunov * UKR 08:33:30 08:48:22 00:48:58 04:42:32 05:36:31 02:56:59 68% +7% -25% (10) 108
18 16 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:36:53 08:42:17 00:46:14 04:32:18 05:23:31 03:13:22 60% +10% -30% (12) 85
19 27 Casey Munro AUS 08:42:16 09:25:12 00:47:30 04:35:52 05:28:22 03:13:54 11% +0% -89% (8) (225)
20 18 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:59:51 09:18:39 00:48:31 04:53:50 05:47:21 03:12:30 30% +8% -63% (29) 205
21 24 Lachlan Kerin AUS 09:08:21 09:41:56 00:53:13 04:50:29 05:48:43 03:19:38 7% +23% -70% (5) (263)
22 21 Leigh Stabryla AUS 09:08:59 09:27:39 00:50:03 05:11:47 06:06:50 03:02:09 37% +0% -63% (5) 232
23 29 Ryan Palazzi AUS 09:24:22 09:58:53 00:50:48 04:49:21 05:45:09 03:39:13 26% +0% -74% (3) (278)
24 26 Bryce McMaster NZL 10:34:26 11:11:42 00:52:52 05:49:14 06:47:06 03:47:20 33% +0% -67% (2) (300)
25 30 Aleksander Kochetkov * LTU 10:49:11 11:11:58 01:09:44 05:37:00 06:51:44 03:57:27 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (300)
1 Javier Gomez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Jason Hall NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Blake Kappler AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 David Mainwaring AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 26% of a typical Kona field.

Sarah Crowley is already training in Switzerland and will race IM Frankfurt to validate her Kona slot.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 32 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:57:08 09:01:36 00:56:09 05:00:53 06:02:02 02:55:06 59% +12% -29% (15) (2)
2 31 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:05:00 09:17:13 00:55:31 04:56:03 05:56:34 03:08:26 35% +65% -0% (6) 9
3 40 Teresa Adam NZL 09:12:51 09:32:15 00:50:49 05:04:05 05:59:54 03:12:57 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (36)
4 39 Beth McKenzie USA 09:16:21 09:28:03 01:00:34 05:09:53 06:15:27 03:00:54 38% +50% -11% (13) (32)
5 37 Anja Beranek GER 09:18:33 09:23:56 00:52:35 04:56:31 05:54:06 03:24:27 68% +4% -27% (12) 23
6 33 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:21:44 09:27:02 01:01:51 05:01:08 06:07:59 03:13:45 98% +2% -0% (18) 29
7 34 Lauren Brandon USA 09:32:02 09:36:33 00:48:19 05:03:33 05:56:52 03:35:10 46% +0% -54% (6) 41
8 36 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:32:22 09:39:43 01:01:29 05:11:57 06:18:26 03:13:56 76% +14% -10% (11) 50
9 38 Sue Huse CAN 09:35:00 09:55:10 unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (79)
10 35 Melanie Burke NZL 09:36:57 09:48:12 01:04:44 05:08:33 06:18:16 03:18:41 86% +8% -6% (12) 63
11 41 Jessica Mitchell AUS 09:47:21 10:11:29 01:04:06 05:13:21 06:22:26 03:24:55 68% +32% -0% (6) 107
12 42 Alise Selsmark * AUS 09:50:44 10:11:27 00:54:29 05:25:04 06:24:33 03:26:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (107)
43 Amanda Wilson AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Terenzo Bozzone: 41% (1-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 17% (5-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 14% (6-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 8% (11-1)
  • Mike Phillips: 6% (15-1)
  • Braden Currie: 4% (22-1)
  • David Dellow: 4% (23-1)

In addition to these established athletes, there is Javier Gomez who will race in his first Ironman-distance race who has also to be considered for the win. (I have tried to come up with a data-based guess for a possible Cairns finish time for him in my post “Trying to Predict Ironman Times from 70.3 Ratings“. The result was a range of times between 8:00 and 8:30.)

Female Race Participants

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 40% (1-1)
  • Sarah Crowley: 39% (2-1)
  • Beth McKenzie: 13% (6-1)
  • Asa Lundstroem: 4% (27-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 2% (43-1)

2 Responses to Ironman Cairns 2018 (June 10th) – Seedings

  1. Diego Fort June 8, 2018 at 5:15 pm #

    Hi. I am 99% sure Eneko Llanos is not starting.

  2. Diego Fort June 8, 2018 at 5:18 pm #

    Eneko will start in Niza on the 24th of june

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